When Do You Expect the Habs to Make Legit Noise?

[CentreHice]

We just lived through the worst Habs' season in our lifetimes--and I presume next season, most of us would be okay "dropping hard for Bedard"...as it would speed up the process.

We will stick by the team no matter what, but there's so much work to do. Patience with the new management team is likely to last a few years...but when can fans reasonably expect to see the boys reach at least wild card status?

[Skilly]

I don't think they'll win another Cup in my lifetime.

And until we solve the goaltending black hole, I don't see them in the playoffs for at least 5 years. The division is just too strong

[drkcloud]

Honestly, we are not even close enough to plan on being contenders, too much has to go just right at this point. It could be 5 years or it could be 10 years. I'm not convinced our franchise cornerstone is even in our organization yet. I think at best we can hope for a return to the playoffs as a middling team in 3-4 years.

[CentreHice]

Aug 1, 2022 22:23:07 GMT -5 Skilly said:

And until we solve the goaltending black hole,

Yep...imagine how bleak the Bergevin era would've been without our MVPrice.

[Scotty D]

I said 26/27 but that is completely dependant on the situation between the pipes, Price may or may not return this year and his heir aparent within the system is well nothing less than hopeful at best with who we have, When that gets sorted it may be more clear as to when we can even begin to consider being a team that makes "legit noise"

my version of legit noise is contention nothing less others may differ but that's just me compounded by the fact that in 50 years of (ok 45 that i recall lol) being a habs fan this team has only been legit when the goalie was.

[Cranky]

If they don't get rid of Price, it's a minimum of 5 years of waste.

Doubt I'll see another cup and I think I'm good for at least another 30 years. To be honest, another few years of this and I doubt I'll care.

[Scotty D]

Aug 4, 2022 15:54:16 GMT -5 Cranky said:

If they don't get rid of Price, it's a minimum of 5 years of waste.

Doubt I'll see another cup and I think I'm good for at least another 30 years. To be honest, another few years of this and I doubt I'll care.

i have more hope now than i did before the manmagement change but it is still a bare mininmum of it, when berger brain took over i gave him the benefit of the doubt for a couple seasons given what was inherited in this case the inheritance is less than before but early indications to me seem much better than the quickly evaporated hope i had in MB.

[seventeen]

I chose 2026/27 and that too may be too early, but I'm giving our scouting staff a vote of confidence that they will be able to continue finding late round gems.

From 2009 to 2021 (13 years), the Avs had 7 top 10 picks. They made some great picks in the first round and blew a few as well. The astounding fact is outside of Ryan O'Rielly, the 33rd overall pick in 2009, they have had no one picked outside of the first round have any impact at all and most never even had a sniff of the NHL. That;s the opposite of the Habs who managed to find a lot of decent support players in later rounds, but got no impact players in the first round (Sergachev maybe?). But Habs rarely drafted high and when they did, it often was a weak draft year.  Avs scouting record is pretty bad except for the high pick Makars and Mackinnons and Rantanens and guys they turned into those players (O'Rielly and Duchene). So....start to finish 14 years? But they were competitive before that in 2017/18, so 9 years.

Tampa. Started their rebuild or build-build in 2008 with Stamkos and then Hedman the following year. They only had five top 10 picks, but did much better in later rounds than the Avs. They became competitive in 2013/14 with a .616 record, as Jon Cooper took over from Guy Boucher. So in their case, that's 5 years to become competitive and 11 years before they won a Cup (heatedly disputed by many as they were a huge chunk over the CAP limit due to key injuries miraculously healing once the playoffs started). The counter argument is that the rules were the same for everyone, but not everyone had an elite player return for the playoffs. Regardless, it was 5 years before they became competitive. Getting Kucherov at 58 and Palat at pick 208 in 2011 went a long way toward that improvement.

That's why I'm going with 5 years. We have a chance to get another elite player this year if we can manage to not play our cards too right. I think Hughes and Gorton are doing this the right way. The focus is on 'development' which is another way of saying they don't give a damn if we win or not this year as long as the kids take another step forward.

There will be luck involved. If Hutson can bring his game to the NHL level, his creativity and skill can easily make up for his size. Who knows, his endocrinologist may be right and he will grow another few inches. He has the potential to be that elite defenseman we need. The rest can be really good support guys. Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj, Barron, Struble and Norlinder (maybe even Mailloux), are a group with size, speed and transition play. Our forward group is going to be really enjoyable.

Yup 5 years, though the first inklings will happen in the 2024/25 season.

[folatre]

It is possible Montreal is able to sniff around a wild card spot for a good portion of the 2024-25 season provided improvements (internally or externally) are found in net and on the blue line. And to make the playoffs with a young team rebounding from a couple of dark seasons would indeed trigger real excitement among the fan base.

But to qualify the baseline of 'legit noise,' then it is probably more like 2025-26 or 2026-27.

I believe management is banking on player development. And drafting a franchise cornerstone or at least a superstar next summer is essential to contending down the line.

However, it would be troubling if Montreal is bottom five level bad in 2023-24 and bottom ten bad in 2024-25 because that may suggest the core continues to lack real difference-makers.

[CentreHice]

Ha! Between my thread title, poll question, and post, I've asked for expectations on 3 levels of improvement instead of just one.

Apologies for that.

If I could post again, I'd have mentioned only "reaching Wild Card status".

[Scotty D]

Aug 4, 2022 21:49:32 GMT -5 CentreHice said:

Ha! Between my thread title, poll question, and post, I've asked for expectations on 3 levels of improvement instead of just one.

Apologies for that.

If I could post again, I'd have mentioned only "reaching Wild Card status".

lol ok if that is the assumed consensus of legit noise (lower bar than mine as noted lol) i still say the same or longer, I hope the gambles on Dach/slafkovsky and some of the other things that are happening within "HUGOVISION" make that window shorter but given the last 20 years of insanity i'll hold out on too much optimism for now.