Who's the pick at #5?

[habsorbed]

I've not included Bedard or Fantilli as no way they will be around at #5. Could say the same for Carlsson and Smith but if Michkov is taken before #5 then no telling who will be chosen between Carlsson and Smith.

I'm going with Smith as I think Michkov will not be around at #5 and likely the other pick in top 4 will be Carlsson leaving us Smith which would work well for HuGo and me

[seventeen]

It feels to me like they have size on the brain and given so many of our prospects are undersized, they won't pick another undersized guy. Just a gut feeling that Leonard is their guy.

[drkcloud]

Leonard, they'll forgo small and skilled and go with size and grit

[Willie Dog]

I said Michie all the way.. 3M will be a Hab... Matvei Michkov Montreal

[jkr]

Jun 23, 2023 5:57:08 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

I said Michie all the way.. 3M will be a Hab... Matvei Michkov Montreal

I'm bothered that no one is able to get a read on this guy but unless he is giving clear signals that he won't play in Montreal then he should be the pick. You have to take the BPA.

I hope they don't trade down. What would be the point of such a poor finish? Make a trade and worsen your draft position?

[Tankdriver]

I choose other. I'm holding out that they trade up to #2. In fact I am even willing to do #5, #31, a couple later picks in this draft, #1 next year and a player/prospect to do it.

[habsorbed]

Jun 23, 2023 8:46:47 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I choose other. I'm holding out that they trade up to #2. In fact I am even willing to do #5, #31, a couple later picks in this draft, #1 next year and a player/prospect to do it.

Just want to make sure i inderstand "Other" and who you see/hope Mtl gets in return for those assets - Fantilli?

[Boston_Habs]

Take the Russian!

[Tankdriver]

Jun 23, 2023 9:57:12 GMT -5 habsorbed said:

Jun 23, 2023 8:46:47 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I choose other. I'm holding out that they trade up to #2. In fact I am even willing to do #5, #31, a couple later picks in this draft, #1 next year and a player/prospect to do it.

Just want to make sure i inderstand "Other" and who you see/hope Mtl gets in return for those assets - Fantilli?

Correct.

[Andrew]

Dvorsky could be on the list also. He ended up #7 on McKenzie's final draft rankings that came out yesterday (Leonard was #6). Five of the ten scouts surveyed had Dvorsky at #6.

“Big Five?” another scout chimed. “I think it could very well be a super six with Dvorsky in that group (regardless of when/where Michkov goes). A big centre with elite hockey sense, elite competitiveness and I believe the offence is there when he plays in his peer group. The only knock is he’s not an explosive skater.”

That scout isn’t the only one who believes Dvorsky warrants inclusion in the Super Six.

“Don’t sleep on Dvorsky,” another said.[/a][/i]

www.tsn.ca/intrigue-and-excitement-in-the-year-of-connor-bedard-at-the-nhl-draft-1.1976262

[folatre]

If the Russian is there, I would sprint to the podium to select him, though I am afraid that is not what will happen.

I think it comes down to Smith, Leonard, and Reinbacher. If San Jose takes Smith and Montreal balks at taking Michkov, then the question is does Hughes see Leonard and Reinbacher as 'tied' in projecting their NHL futures. If they are tied then I believe Hughes said something about giving preference to the position of greater need or scarcity.

I am not sure how I feel about it, but I say Reinbacher.

[seventeen]

There seems to be a little bit more noise around Anaheim taking Michkov at #2. Wouldn't that throw a wrench into all the planning that's gone in the last few weeks?

If it does, I sure hope it breaks down this way: Columbus takes either Fantilli or Smith. I can't recall which team has been linked to really liking Smith. It was one of Columbus or SJ and I think Columbus. So if they take Fantilli I think the Sharks take Carlsson and we're left with Smith or one of the next group of Reinbacher, Leonard or Benson. Maybe we take Smith there and improve our centre situation, unless there's a deal in place for Dubois and then maybe it's Reinbacher or Leonard.

If Columbus takes Smith then I think SJ jumps on Fantilli and we are 'left with' Carlsson. Outside of Michkov & Bedard, he's the guy I like best of the top 5. I sure hope that's how it plays out, but it's more likely we'll be looking at the first scenario and Smith.

[seventeen]

Jun 23, 2023 10:47:12 GMT -5 Andrew said:

Dvorsky could be on the list also. He ended up #7 on McKenzie's final draft rankings that came out yesterday (Leonard was #6). Five of the ten scouts surveyed had Dvorsky at #6.

“Big Five?” another scout chimed. “I think it could very well be a super six with Dvorsky in that group (regardless of when/where Michkov goes). A big centre with elite hockey sense, elite competitiveness and I believe the offence is there when he plays in his peer group. The only knock is he’s not an explosive skater.”

That scout isn’t the only one who believes Dvorsky warrants inclusion in the Super Six.

“Don’t sleep on Dvorsky,” another said.

To quote Willy yet again...."aye, there's the rub" This is the aspect that has soured me on Dvorsky. He scores vs his own peer group but fails to do so at the next level. Well, the next level is what we're talking about. Will he adapt or is he a guy who is great when he has the time and space afforded to him by his peer group? I prefer to see a guy who puts up some points at the next level, and I expect it to be less than against his peer group, but not abysmally less.

As a comparison, Dvorsky had 21 points in 10 games in the Swedish Juniour league (eg CHL), 14 points in 38 games and -19 in the Swedish 1 league (AHL comp) and zero points in 7 playoff games in that same league.

Leo Carlsson had 25 points in 44 games in the Swedish High League and was -5 (NHL comp) and 1-8-9 in 13 games in the playoffs in that same league. Is Dvorsky really that close to Carlsson in the draft, given those numbers? I can't see it. I'm not sure I'd pick him until around the 10-15 range.

[frozone]

Jun 23, 2023 12:28:01 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Jun 23, 2023 10:47:12 GMT -5 Andrew said:

Dvorsky could be on the list also. He ended up #7 on McKenzie's final draft rankings that came out yesterday (Leonard was #6). Five of the ten scouts surveyed had Dvorsky at #6.

“Big Five?” another scout chimed. “I think it could very well be a super six with Dvorsky in that group (regardless of when/where Michkov goes). A big centre with elite hockey sense, elite competitiveness and I believe the offence is there when he plays in his peer group. The only knock is he’s not an explosive skater.”

That scout isn’t the only one who believes Dvorsky warrants inclusion in the Super Six.

“Don’t sleep on Dvorsky,” another said.

To quote Willy yet again...."aye, there's the rub" This is the aspect that has soured me on Dvorsky. He scores vs his own peer group but fails to do so at the next level. Well, the next level is what we're talking about. Will he adapt or is he a guy who is great when he has the time and space afforded to him by his peer group? I prefer to see a guy who puts up some points at the next level, and I expect it to be less than against his peer group, but not abysmally less.

As a comparison, Dvorsky had 21 points in 10 games in the Swedish Juniour league (eg CHL), 14 points in 38 games and -19 in the Swedish 1 league (AHL comp) and zero points in 7 playoff games in that same league.

Leo Carlsson had 25 points in 44 games in the Swedish High League and was -5 (NHL comp) and 1-8-9 in 13 games in the playoffs in that same league. Is Dvorsky really that close to Carlsson in the draft, given those numbers? I can't see it. I'm not sure I'd pick him until around the 10-15 range.

Dvorsky is basically Shane Wright to me. Still a great prospect, but hasn't really shown much growth for too long of a stretch. Bedard is the consensus #1 because he surpassed expectations when put to the test. Dvorsky and Wright kinda just floated through their opportunities to prove they belong with the best.

I think there's a couple of prospects who could join the consensus top 5 because, to some degree, the top 5 all have of question marks that could affect their ranking. Is Carlsson a center or a winger in the NHL? How much of Smith's production was due to being on the best line of draft-year prospects in the world? I don't have to get into the questions surrounding Michkov... Even Bedard has questions about what position he will play in the NHL (although there's zero chance his ranking changes).

So which prospects could join the top 5 to make it 6 or 7? Not Dvorsky. Perhaps Benson... he looks like he's 12. If there's evidence that he has significant physical growth ahead of him, he vaults into the top group imo. I would say Leonard is the other one. There's enough data out there that suggests he was the play driver on that dominant line, and he can play center or wing. The question is whether his frame is big/strong enough for him to continue playing a power forward game in the NHL. As for the defensemen, only a top #1 D projection would be worthy of joining the top group, so that rules out Reinbacher for me.

If Smith is gone and the red flags on Michkov prove to be legitimate, then I'll be happy with Leonard.

[Cranky]

If Mich is gone at 2, I pay to draft at 3 and pick Fantilli.

Fantilli will never drop to 5 so we need to change that.

Our 5th and 31st and Beck or any of our B prospects.