Anybody have a subscription to The Athletic? I saw a post from RDS saying they have projected the Habs to finish 31st of the 32 teams. I was unable to read the article however.
I figure the playoffs to maybe be a stretch, but I really believe we'll see some baby steps this year and play a more entertaining game for sure.
Interested to hear their reasons as to why we're set take a small step back
I'll try to accommodate:
Introductory prelude:
Welcome to The Athletic’s 2023-24 edition of the team season previews, a deep dive into what to expect from each team for the upcoming season by Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, and Dom Luszczyszyn.
Between Sept. 20 and Oct. 5, we’re previewing all 32 NHL teams in order of predicted regular-season finish, according to Dom’s model. But we’re not going to unveil the order at once — you’ll have to come back here each day as we publish two new previews.
Beyond the projected point total and playoff finish, you’ll find a wildcard player that might have an unexpected impact on the forecast, a roster breakdown, and a best and worst-case scenario for each team. This year, the one big question facing each team is its own breakout story.
• How these projections work
• Understanding projection uncertainty
32. San Jose Sharks
31. Montreal Canadiens
30. Chicago Blackhawks
29. Anaheim Ducks
28. Philadelphia Flyers
27. Columbus Blue Jackets
26. St. Louis Blues
25. Washington Capitals
24. Arizona Coyotes
23. Detroit Red Wings
22. Buffalo Sabres
21. Nashville Predators
20. Seattle Kraken
19. New York Islanders
18. Vancouver Canucks
17. Ottawa Senators
16. Los Angeles Kings
15. Tampa Bay Lightning
14. Winnipeg Jets
13. Calgary Flames
12. Pittsburgh Penguins
11. Minnesota Wild
10. Florida Panthers
9. Boston Bruins
These were all links to their analysis and it stopped at 9. Might be more later. Concerning the Habs, here we go:
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna GoldmanExpectations around the Canadiens headed into 2022-23 seemed to be reasonable — as reasonable as they could be, at least, given the nature of the Montreal pressure cooker. The larger goal, it seemed, was the development of young (or young-ish) players in the first full season of the Jeff Gorton/Kent Hughes/Martin St. Louis regime. Winning games? Eh. They didn’t necessarily need to stack standings points to feel like the rebuild was on solid ground.
That’s good — because they didn’t. This was a bad team last season, and it’s on track to be bad yet again, as expected. As for that young core, most of it (Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach) took steps forward without truly breaking out. Incremental progress is still progress. The question for the Canadiens is whether they should expect more, and whether it’ll be enough.
The Canadiens aren’t quite ready to take the next step forward. They’re still in the building phase, and with the entire East a gauntlet just to make the playoffs, that’s for the best. The timing wouldn’t be right anyway.
That means another year of sitting back, relaxing and watching the losses pile up while the young core develops. For most franchises, this phase is a slog to sit through, but Montreal’s version is as fun as it reasonably could be for a 70-point team. That’s what Montreal expects to be and while the Canadiens could surprise, that surprise likely doesn’t land them anywhere close to a playoff spot.
Where it does land them is a likely spot in the bottom five, in three-quarters of all simulations. A lottery spot is their likely end game — another chance to add to their recent blue-chip prospect pile of Juraj Slafkovsky and David Reinbacher. Montreal has picked in the top five in back-to-back seasons and should do so again in 2024 for a third straight time.
That’s the goal here: stacking successive top-five picks. That’s where franchise talent is usually found and Montreal is in a terrific position to land there once again. Save the wins for another year when the team is ready for it and the timing is right.
Having young pieces is a core part of rebuilding, so the Canadiens check off a key box there — and it’s not just who they consider to be the cornerstones of the team.
It’s seen down the lineup in players like Kirby Dach, who has proven to be a smart reclamation projection. The former No. 3 pick fell out of favor in Chicago, but the center proved he can play at this level with improved play on both ends of the ice last season. If the progression continues, he could be the second-line center for years to come on this Canadiens team. Rafael Harvey-Pinard impressed with a breakout season in a supporting role. Dach and Harvey-Pinard had some of the best two-way impacts on the team last year.
Now, this season, that youth extends to another reclamation projection of sorts in Alex Newhook. It also includes Slavkovsky, who obviously doesn’t stack up as a former No. 1 pick just yet but measures fine as a team’s ninth forward. And, on the blue line, it includes Jordan Harris, who had solid five-on-five impacts last year and shows potential moving forward. He’s one of just two defensemen in Montreal who narrowly have positive Defensive Ratings. Newhook, Harvey-Pinard and Slavkovsky all contribute to the Canadiens’ depth offense, which allows them to roll four lines. The positional versatility and number of players who can play center only gives them more options. The high-end talent may not be there yet, but Montreal is annoyingly deep for a bottom-feeder.
A rebuilding team can’t only have young players, and Mike Matheson has been a solid veteran to lead the blue line. He’s the only other defender on the Canadiens to have positive Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Before being moved to Montreal, he was coming off some impressive seasons in Pittsburgh in a depth role. But on a weaker team where he’s more exposed, he’s managed the role well. While he’s still below average to other No. 1 defensemen, he measures up better than expected. Montreal managed to actually outscore its opponents with Matheson on the ice last year and he scored at a 56-point pace.
The bright spots are relatively thin in Montreal, but they extend to each position. Sam Montembeault was better than most could have anticipated in a challenging role. The goalie was tested in his minutes by a team that allowed one of the highest rates of shots and scoring chances against. But he responded well to his workload in 40 games, saving almost 17 goals above expected which ranked 13th in the league among all goaltenders. We don’t project that to continue, not after one season of strong results, and he’s pretty weak as far as starting goalies go. But if Montembeault can repeat then the Canadiens should have strength and depth between the pipes, especially with a relatively capable second and third option behind him.
The weaknesses
While the Canadiens may have a bright future ahead, it obviously hasn’t been a perfect process, either. One of the biggest drawbacks is the timing of it all. No team should ever speed through a rebuild; the quicker a team builds, the easier it tends to be to fall. But individual progress isn’t exactly happening at the fastest pace — and that’s something that has to change, especially from those who are already behind the curve like Juraj Slafkovsky. Having young talent is one part of the process, actually developing them is another. The incremental growth seen over the last few seasons isn’t nothing, and development isn’t linear, but it’s fair to want more, especially from the young stars at this point.
The problem is that so many of them are over-leveraged at this point. That’s true for Dach who doesn’t measure up well as a top-two forward and for Kaiden Guhle back on defense who projects to be a top-four defender but isn’t quite top-pairing quality yet. That goes for Suzuki and Caufield too, who made our Top 125 players list — but just barely. That’s not ideal for a team’s two best players. More depth ahead of these players to absorb tougher minutes would help maximize their games, but instead, they have no choice but to experience trial by fire as they develop at this level.
That holds the team back on both ends of the ice. The Canadiens can’t progress until their offense starts to trend up. This was a bottom-10 team last year at five-on-five in shot volume and quality, as well as goal scoring. The team was above average, according to AllThreeZones, in their rush-based offense and even their high-danger passing. But Montreal fell short almost everywhere else, failing to establish a cycle game or a threatening forecheck.
That trickled into a lackluster power play as well. Montreal struggled to generate shots from the slot last year and didn’t convert as well on the few shots they did create. And this wasn’t simply a product of losing Caufield for a chunk of the season, either.
The problem is that this roster isn’t that different from last year, and projects to have a collective Offensive Rating of minus-29 that ranks fourth worst in the league. Just four players have a positive Offensive Rating, the best being plus-8. That’s a far cry from where most contenders land and while that’s obviously not the goal this early it shows how much work is left to do. It’s going to take a lot of individual growth and improved strategy to turn that around. That’s what management is banking this entire process on. If their young stars can’t start taking bigger leaps forward, there may have to be a conversation about whether they can be the cornerstones of this process, or if Montreal should still be in search of its true centerpiece.
Unfortunately for the Canadiens, their issues aren’t only on one end of the ice. For all this team mustered offensively last year, they conceded even more back.
Montreal often failed to hold the blue line, which led to opponents skating right in to take chances off the rush. While the team proved they can skate the puck out of their own zone with control, it was often a process to get there because of their struggle to recover pucks from opponents. That led to the Canadiens finishing second to last in the league in expected goals against, conceding 3.12 per 60 which was actually a step back from 2021-22. The penalty kill was another area of weakness, as the Canadiens bled shots from some of the most dangerous areas: net front and both circles.
That contributes to this team earning the 28th-worst Defensive Rating in the league, with only four players (narrowly) cracking into the positives individually. While players like Josh Anderson, David Savard and Christian Dvorak all drag Montreal way down. At least someone like Anderson evolved offensively this past season to make up for being a defensive liability; the other two can’t say the same. Habs fans can also take solace in those three being mistakes of a previous regime, too.
The team’s defensive instability is going to stay a drag on the offense that this roster, as currently constructed, may not be able to overcome. And that will likely strain the goaltenders as well. Montreal is going into the season with the same tandem after flipping Casey DeSmith, acquired from Pittsburgh in July, to the Canucks for Tanner Pearson and a pick. None of these goaltenders have proven yet that they can be a team’s true backbone that can mask any defensive liabilities in front of the crease. It’s nice that there’s depth here, but there’s no true star, which only stresses the need for better play in front of the crease.
It may not seem as pressing for a team destined for another low finish (and another high draft pick) to take such big steps in each aspect of the game. But at a certain point, a team can’t just be facing painful losses night in and night out. There has to be development to add meaning to a long, grueling season. Last year was the start of that, and the Canadiens need to ensure there’s some advancement to build on that.
The wild card
Can Juraj Slafkovsky make an impact in Year 2?Expectations were high for Slafkovsky heading into his rookie season. That’s always the case for a player drafted No. 1, and even more so when they pop off on the international stage a few months earlier.
Slafkovsky’s first 39 games at the NHL level were far from impressive. The rookie only earned 10 points in 39 games before his season was cut short by injury. That was the lowest scoring rate of any No. 1 pick (defensemen included!) in the analytics era. His play below the surface didn’t paint a much stronger picture either, with a lowly 42 percent expected goals rate in his five-on-five minutes and worse results to match. No one in Montreal really excelled at five-on-last year, but he still fell short in the offensive department relative to his teammates.
It’s possible that Slafkovsky’s injury prevented him from hitting his stride at the NHL level. It can take time for some players to acclimate, and his season ended in January, after all. That puts more pressure on Year 2.
What may help his case is that other No. 1 picks who struggled in Year 1, like Jack Hughes, have rebounded the next season. True outliers like Alexis Lafrenière still haven’t fully found their groove at this level, so that’s the risk. Hughes’ and Lafrenière’s scoring increased by a rate of .180 points per game between their first and second seasons, which is about 15 points across an 82-game season.
As it stands, Slafkovsky doesn’t project too highly — not compared to his teammates, or even other depth forwards. That can change, though. Montreal has to ensure he’s put in a position to succeed to open the season — with skilled teammates who will elevate him, and in power-play situations that will boost his confidence. From there, it’s on Slafkovsky to maintain those minutes and role; if he can, he should be on the path to impact status.
The best case
Suzuki and Caufield mesh and each averages a point per game. Dach centers his own line and emerges as a legit 2C. Slafkovsky grabs hold of a middle-six spot and flashes the goal scoring that made him the No. 1 pick. The core is set and strengthened with one more reinforcement on the horizon in the form of another top-five pick in 2024.
The worst case
Caufield can’t stay healthy. Suzuki plateaus as a low-end 1C as Dach regresses. Slafkovsky fails to nail down a consistent spot in the lineup and loses another year of development. Montreal, thanks to crummy lottery luck, winds up drafting too low to select — or pass on — a high-end prospect.
The bottom line
It’s not make-or-break time yet for the Canadiens. There’s still a lot of room for patience and growth. Management is being rightfully methodical about the entire rebuilding process with the understanding that doing it right is significantly more important than doing it fast.
Doing it right, though, depends on getting the right players, the ones championship teams are built around. For the roster as a whole, that means losing a lot. For key young pieces within, that means proving you’re part of the answer — and that’s where this season holds a lot of weight for Montreal.
The Canadiens may not be ready to build on top of their foundation, but it is getting close to the point where they find out if it’s a foundation that can support their championship goals.
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