Grading the Draft

[skunk]

Now that we've had a week to absorb all the information on the various picks, I will offer up my opinion of the Hab's 2007 draft. I place a higher emphasis on "positional need" than the much overused concept of "best player available". I think that the so called "best player available" for any particular team IS the player who best fits their current (at the prospect level) needs.

1. Ryan McDonagh - Much like last year's top pick (and Mr Hockey Award winner for the state of Minnesota) David Fischer, McDonagh comes with the reputation of doing everything well and nothing outstanding. You can't find a solid reason to NOT like either of them. Size, skating, skill level, physical play, and intellect, are all on the plus side. Add to the fact that they are headed for two of the best development programs in the world as NCAA recruits on WCHA teams. From a positional standpoint, McDonagh is also an excellant choice as a left shooting defenseman, with only Pavel Valentenko as a top prospect in the system at the moment.

The downside, (as with Fischer), is that Ryan has not demonstrated outstanding ability in any facet of the game at a high level of play. The highschoolers out of Minnesota have been overrated in the past few drafts (Blake Wheeler and Brian Lee), and a quick perusal of past Mr Hockey winners isn't very comforting. The best of them, over a period of 20 years or so, was another former Hab first rounder, Tom Chorske. Half of the names are unrecognizable today.

6/10

1. Max Pacioretty - Connecticut born left winger certainly gets top marks for filling a positional need within the system. Half of the team's current left wingers are converted centres or right wingers who might be better off back at their natural position. The team traded for three LW within the space of a week or so in an effort to rectify the situation, but none of Janne Lahti, Tony Salmalainen, or Ryan Russell, bring the blend of size and two way skill that Pacioretty has. He is another "all rounder" who doesn't stand out in any single facet of the game.

Downside again, is the competition level, having come to the USHL for just a single season directly out of prep school. Max did well in his "Junior A" season, but has virtually no international exposure, and will not show his potential until he plays at least a full NCAA season.

7/10

2. P.K. Subban - Club went off the charts for likable Afro Canadian from Toronto. Subban is the "wild card" of the team's draft in every way. Some scouts considered him a first round talent, some didn't have him on their list at all. All raved about his individual skills, but few thought that he could put them together in a consisently productive fashion.

History shows that "off the chart" picks generally remain off the charts. For every ten teams that second guess CSB, and the majority opinion in a given draft, roughly one or two are right. Not great odds, and as a right shooting offensive rearguard, Subban comes into the position of greatest depth at the moment. Philippe Paquet, David Fischer, Mathieu Carle, Cameron Cepek, and fellow OHL draftee Yannick Weber stand ahead of Subban on the depth list at the moment.

4/10

3. Olivier Fortier - Perhaps the safest pick of the draft to this point, Fortier comes with the reputation of being a hard worker, responsible defensively, and possessing better than average skating. Anyone with those three qualities in combination is gauranteed of being an NHL player if they can produce even minimal offense. Olivier did more than that, averaging a point per game in the Q as a 17 year old on one of the poorer teams in the league. In addition he played for the Canadian U18 team.

Downside for Fortier is that he will be limited by his average offensive skill, and below average size.

7/10

3. Yannick Weber - Probably an even safer pick than Fortier, the stocky Swiss born defender already possesses a mature all round game and has had a year to adapt to the North American game and culture. Lots of high level experience, with a season in the Swiss senior league and two World Junior Championships behind him already. Smart and very strong for his size.

Only concern with Weber may be his nationality. He is the best player of his age group from Switzerland, and could command a top salary in one of the European leagues down the road. The fact that he is already playing in North America suggests that he will at least give a full effort to playing in the NHL before he "retires" to play in Switzerland or Austria.

8/10

[skunk]

5. Joe Stejstal - Being completely bypassed in your first year of draft eligibility is generally the kiss of death as far as NHL prospects are concerned. The odds are a bit better of finding a late bloomer since the draft was reduced in length, but not much. On the plus side, the 6-2, 190 pound left handed defenseman fills a crying need on the organiztional depth chart with his penchant for physical play, and will have several years in a fairly good NCAA program to refine his natural athleticism.

5/10

5. Andrew Conboy - Another "overage" positional pick ( big, physical left winger) whose eventual NHL position (should he make it that far) will be more along the lines of "wingnut fear inspirer". Conboy has the genes for the job by all indications, being the brother of legendary NCAA loose cannon Tim Conboy. He also has the size at 6-4, 200 pounds, and the team has five years or so before they have to put their money where their mouth was. By that time it should be clear whether he has the minimal skills required to be a fourth line enforcer.

5/10

6. Nichlas Torp - Torp was ranked as the best European based defenseman available in the draft, (by CSB), and the seventh best skater overall. In previous years that would have gauranteed him a spot in the first two rounds of the draft. Even in an off year for Euros it looks like a great value pick. He seems to be a virtual clone of Alexei Emelin who was taken in the third round of the 2004 draft. Stocky and fiercely physical, with decent puck skills and a strong point shot. As another left side defender with a physical edge, he has a definite positional advantage in the organization, particularly if Emelin elects to remain in Russia.

Concerns about the Swede center around his body being able to stand up to his style of play. At just under 6 feet and 200 pounds he has been prone to injury and managed to play in less than 60 games over the past three seasons.

7/10

7. Scott Kishel - At the stage of the draft where teams are throwing darts, the slender skilled Minnesota high school defender seems like as good a bet as any. He was one of, if not the, top scoring defensemen in the Minnesota high school leagues, and a recruit of Minnesota-Duluth. First he will spend a year in the USHL to gain some weight on his 170 pound frame and some higher level playing experience. Like Conboy he is a five year project, although he is a year younger starting out. The fourth left handed defenseman taken by Montreal in the draft. A position that was thin was filled out a lot over 24 hours.

7/10


Overall, the first 5 picks of the draft grade out a cumulative 32/50 or 64%. These are the picks that matter, all within the first 75 players taken. The latter half of the draft brings 4 players with a cumulative 24/40 with the chance that one of the higher rated ones actually has an effect in the long term. That would raise the average marginally, to perhaps 65 %.

[skunk]

Checking in on the progress of the 2007 draft -

1. Ryan McDonagh - All you could ask for through his first 14 games at the next level. Has scored a very respectable 8 points in 14 games and leads the Badgers in +- rating. Strong candidate to play for USA Hockey at the WJC.

2. Max Pacioretty - Start to his NCAA career even more impressive than McDonagh's, although he is a bit older and has a year of Junior A experience, so it is probably to be expected. 15 points in 16 games to start the season, playing on the top line, and another strong candidate for the U20 team.

3. P.K. Subban - Has managed to refine his defensive game somewhat, while maintaining his point per game offensive production. Still has a long way to go, but seems to be open to coaching.

4. Olivier Fortier - Tough start for Fortier as his very talented Rimouski team has been hamstrung by a series of injuries. As the year goes on the team should emerge as a power in the Q, and Fortier's numbers will likely improve a lot.

5. Yannik Weber - Has really emerged as a PP QB in his second OHL season. One of the leading scorers among defenseman in the league, and his Kitchener Ranger team looks like a powerhouse in the year they host the Memorial Cup. Could be very high profile season for Weber, who will be the leader of the Swiss team at the WJC, and is a candidate for top CHL defenseman as well as post season awards.

6. Joe Stejstal - Surprisingly, the unheralded Minnesota recruit has combined with fellow freshman Evan Stephens to form the top defense pairing at Dartmouth this year. Has yet to score a point, but by all accounts in playing solid defensively and providing some big hits for the team.

7. Andrew Conboy - Scoring at about the same pace as he did last season in the USHL, the hulking winger understands his path to the NHL, and is among the league leaders in penalty minutes and fighting majors.

8. Niklas Torp - Well, the big concern over Torp was whether or not he could stay healthy, and so far it doesn't look good. Has yet to play a game this year, after missing most of the previous two seasons, and not expected to return until sometime in the new year.

9. Scott Kishel - Playing regularly in the USHL, although at a painfully thin 5-11, 160 pounds, the odds of his ever gaining the strength to play pro hockey look equally slender. Hard to figure this pick, maybe the club is anticipating no contact hockey in the NHL by 2012 or something.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

The draft is not a science, it's an art.
I like longshots with high upside potential. We need a star!

Locke could be a superstar, or he may never even get a cup of coffee. (looks like he drinks tea)
Kostitsyn had great talent, but may not be fast enough for the NHL.
Grabovski has tons of speed, but his size and productivity puts him in pee wee.
Hainsey has great qualities and even greater liabilities.
Komisarek is a stud with limited quickness. (a long term project that is paying dividends)
Chipchura has character and is fitting in well on the fourth line. (At least the fourth line is producing for us)
Higgins has speed, desire and needs to mature about his comments about teamates. (pleasant surprise)
Subban, big upside to replace Bouillon. (Bouillon is skating well)
Price has unlimited potential but is not the leagues MVP yet.
Kostitsyn lite was a stretch that may work out very well.
Plekanec has exceeded all expectations, but is not a premier talent like Staal, Kovalchuk etc.
O'Byrne, Fisher, McDonagh; much too soon to tell, but I would give any of them in trade for a bonified star.

For every ten players we draft, one makes it big. In the words of Monica Lewinsky, "Good but no cigar!"
As a team we are no closer to the cup than we have been in the last twenty years. Disappointing to all the oldtimers that remember the Hab's of old that were expected to win every game, especially those against expansion teams. Time to adjust expectations.
Carbo is moving bishops and pawns around the chessboard, but he is facing Queens and Castles. None of his combinations puts fear into Sundin, Antropov and Ponikarovsky.
Gainey appears professional. UCLA had a very professional Dorrel, but after five years and no improvement, the team has to take a different direction. I like Gainey, his character and attempts, but he has to be measured by his success and it is lacking. Missing the playoffs last year the way we did could have been the nail in his coffin. We had a good start to the year this year and last. Been there, done that.
I don't advocate firing Gainey for the sake of firing Gainey, but I'm still waiting for results.
At the end of the season, there will be several free agants available and a lowering of the salary cap is anticipated. Teams (including Detroit) in the US are having trouble attracting fans). The Canadian dollar is no longer a convenient excuse. We can't blame Houle forever. Big crowds, hockey mad city, fan support. Time for management to step up. One more year?
Frustrated and disgruntled Hab's fan in LA.

[skunk]

Gainey has a pretty impressive record as a GM. He was in the position at the NHL level for a decade or so before coming to Montreal. They would be hard pressed to find a better candidate for the job, and I seriously doubt that George Gillett is even considering that.

As for Carbo's "bishops and pawns" failing to match up with the "Queens and Castles" like Sundin, Ponikarovsky and Antropov, maybe you better check the standings. Habs are well ahead of the "Hapless" Leafs, and it is the boys in blue who are seriously considering firing their inept GM and starting over from scratch.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

skunk said:

Gainey has a pretty impressive record as a GM. He was in the position at the NHL level for a decade or so before coming to Montreal. They would be hard pressed to find a better candidate for the job, and I seriously doubt that George Gillett is even considering that.

As for Carbo's "bishops and pawns" failing to match up with the "Queens and Castles" like Sundin, Ponikarovsky and Antropov, maybe you better check the standings. Habs are well ahead of the "Hapless" Leafs, and it is the boys in blue who are seriously considering firing their inept GM and starting over from scratch.

The leafs are hapless. I used them to demonstrate that a hapless team has a better player than we do, a better #1 line than we do and two stars with more points than anybody we have. They knocked us out of the playoffs. The leafs #1 line brings the puck into our end and controls it along the boards, behind the net, in the slot. We can't touch their bigger players like Sundin.
I didn't advocate firing Gainey. I think he's professional and a gentleman. He has great credentials as a player and lots of experience as a GM.
My criticism is he hasn't produced and the team still is struggling to make the playoffs. No improvement relative to the rest of the league. That's his job. Bringing in star players and hiring a great coach.
I don't have a fantastic selection to replace Gainey. I'm simply stating that I'm frustrated and Gainey hasn't delivered on his multi-year plan.

[skunk]

There is certainly room to criticize Gainey, he decided early on to hang his hat on Alexei Kovalev for some unfathomable reason. Kovalev has never been known as a leader or a high character player, and the money could have been better spent elsewhere. Sergei Samsonov was another in the same boat, but who could have predicted he would fail so completely while still in his playing prime. Giving lucrative, long term deals to the likes of Bouillon and Dandeneault was puzzling as well. Both had been fringe NHLers their entire career, and at this point they are stifling the progress of younger players more than anything else. But a multi year plan ultimately depends on the draft. You can't acheive long term success by hiring a bunch of over the hill mercenaries.

Gainey wasn't fully on board for the 2003 draft, so he can't be blamed for the shortcomings there. The next year wasn't nearly as deep a group, and the Habs were picking relatively late. Getting a solid citizen like Kyle Chipchura was the best they could have hoped for, and the contributions of Mark Streit and to a lesser extent, Mikail Grabovski, were bonus. I think a couple picks in that draft were used for short term help in the deals for Kovalev, Huet, and Bonk as well, so they did get a lot out of it. Third round pick Alexei Emelin looks like he can contribute as well. In 2005 they got lucky off the top with the 5th overall pick, and after failing to move up for Sidney Crosby or Jack Johnson, did as well as you could have hoped with Carey Price. Getting Latendresse in the second round was a combination of luck and good judgement. Surprisingly he fell to the middle of the second round, and the team took advantage by trading up to grab him. Getting two solid regulars by the age of 20 is a "best case scenario" in any draft. There is more good news ahead from that draft as well, in the persons of Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, and Philippe Paquet. It is too early to judge the club on the 2006 and 2007 drafts, but there is definite reason for optimism in both cases.

So, in fairness, Bob's "multi year plan" is just getting underway with the additions of Kyle Chipchura and Carey Price this season to join Guillaume Latendresse, Cristobal Huet, and Mark Streit, along with some part of Alexei Kovalev .