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Post by Kareem on Jul 1, 2007 21:28:05 GMT -5
Samsonov scored 40+ points in the RSL when he was 16-17 years old. Kostitsyn had 1 point in two years there when he was 17 and 18 years old. Grabovski never made the grade at all until he was 19, I believe. You have to be awfully optomistic to assume that either player has a fraction of the talent of Samsonov. Hell, Sergei won the Calder when he was 19, and scored twice as many points at that age IN THE NHL as Kostitsyn scored IN THE AHL. Some players plateau soon, some others developp later, this has happened so many times in the past that I'm puzzled why you even bring all of this up. How did Naslund get so many more points then Samsonov then? How was it possible that Pavol Dastyuk and Henrik Zetterberg became elite players? If we go by stats like those you showed, we'll only conclude that the argument is inconclusive.
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Post by skunk on Jul 1, 2007 23:45:24 GMT -5
Well, numbers are reasonably objective, which is a quality in short supply among sports fans. If you don't use statistics as a basis of comparison, what are you going to use? The way the guy combs his hair? What type of car they drive? If you want a job as an NHL SCORER, you better damn well have some statistics to bring to the table. Neither Grabovski or Kostitsyn do, at any meaningful level. The examples you gave, Naslund in particular, scored a crapload of points at a high level before they came to the NHL. Same with Koivu and Kovalev, to name a couple of current players. Koivu won the Finnish Elite League scoring title when he was 19 or 20. Kovalev was a first line RSL player prior to being drafted by the Rangers.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 2, 2007 1:12:36 GMT -5
Ah, the age old debate about a top twenty list.
I am a little surprised about both the number of 2007 picks on the list and also their stature relative to the rest of the prospects.
Price...pretty hard to argue right now.
I really liked the McDonagh pick and think he has all the raw talent in the world to become a good one. A little surprising to see him this high so fast but it is always easier to rate recent picks higher since they have not had the time to lower the bar! His upside is still superb, let's hope he can keep developing at that exponential pace to keep that ranking warranted!
Chipchura brings the intangibles that most discount. A true leader who has earned that respect at every level of play is really under-rated by many. He is only 20 but has fought back from injury during draft year and a severed ankle the following year. He earned the "C" on a Sutter team and made his mark instantly on a young Hamilton team, shutting down the who's who of AHL scoring during the Calder Cup run. All teams need guys like that. It is worth a high ranking for me as he has done nothing to lose that ranking.
Pacioretty is really high, along the same lines as McDonagh from both the perspective of being new picks and also not having played in the CHL or NCAA as a higher point of comparison. You always like to see good upside, and I hope he backs Trevor's optimism up, but a USHL rookie of the year award is a good start. Time to make notice in Michigan and at the WJC evaluation camp to reinforce that optimistic ranking.
Fischer will get all the chances in the world to excel on the 07-08 Gophers blueline with their graduations and pro signings. With the confidence that reports say he gained during the later stages of the season, I expect the additional ice time and pressure should be good for his development.
Kosty Jr has really put on a show two years in a row in London, with different supporting casts. Time for the next level, and he has more speed and jam than his brother and seems to have adjusted a bit quicker to living and playing in Canada. Still good upside for sure.
Maxwell - too bad about the elbow. He was having a great run and fighting for that scoring title that Ryan almost took at the end of the season. The only good thing about his long injury was that it enabled Russell to really establish himself this past year in Kootenay as the go-to guy with Ben not playing.
White is a lot of fun to watch. Not great at anything and surely not a guy for fancy drills, but he does a lot of little things right that make coaches happy. Fast enough to be effective in a tough WHL, but I wonder how that will eventually translate into the much faster AHL and NHL if all goes well. Hockey sense and a great attitude go a long way.
Grabovsky has speed and skill to burn. Once he figures out his defensive coverage, he will be set. Sometimes very fearless for a guy who has to look up to see a lot of chin straps in the AHL. Sure he has not developed as fast as some of the upstarts, but I do not think his top end has been reached by any means. A first year in the NA leagues has been good, and with both Kosty brothers there now and his adaption to living in Canada, I am sure the bond will be set for a while.
Subban is really high considering his lack of proven defensive skill set. His personality and character really do set him aside from the masses, now he has to back it up with some ability to do all the things that tough nuts like Emelin can do in their own end. Still far too raw in his own end for that optimistic a ranking, but TT did see a lot more of this kid than I did.
Funny to see Lahti and Russell on that list. Lahti is intriguing, as he led his sm-liiga team in both goals and penalty minutes...and that is in the European super league that mirrors the North American style the best. I think he should find a nice spot on our new third line this fall, but not sure what his upside is. A great two way guy is still an invaluable asset in this day and age in my books though.
Russell has always been a bit of a second fiddle to his twin, but the talent is there. Just not sure if that frame is big enough to sustain it at the NHL.
I will fill in the gaps on the others later!
Thanks again for both the insight and the provocation to talk about our young guns. A favourite topic of mine for sure for many a year.
On a side note, I have seen the draft Edmonton Oil Kings schedule and White (Calgary) and Maxwell (Kootenay) will be here often, so I am hoping to see lots of their final WHL season. Cepek's Portland team is only hosted here once, but I will try and go as well even though injuries and a bad team have taken its toll on him as a possibility for a contract next summer.
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Post by chief6 on Jul 2, 2007 1:55:08 GMT -5
I don't think that Grabovski has enough offensive productivity in him to offset his shortcomings in other areas. I'm just curious about these shortcomings people see in Mik Grabovski's game. I'm in line with the idea he doesn't use his line mates well enough or often enough, that he tries to do too much on his own. But I have no issues with his defensive play at all. For a rookie, I thought he was very conscious of his defensive responsibilities. I'm not saying we should pencil this kid in for a Selke Trophy down the road, but kid plays pretty good defense.
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Post by bladesofsteel on Jul 2, 2007 11:21:13 GMT -5
Well, numbers are reasonably objective, which is a quality in short supply among sports fans. If you don't use statistics as a basis of comparison, what are you going to use? The way the guy combs his hair? What type of car they drive? If you want a job as an NHL SCORER, you better damn well have some statistics to bring to the table. Neither Grabovski or Kostitsyn do, at any meaningful level. The examples you gave, Naslund in particular, scored a crapload of points at a high level before they came to the NHL. Same with Koivu and Kovalev, to name a couple of current players. Koivu won the Finnish Elite League scoring title when he was 19 or 20. Kovalev was a first line RSL player prior to being drafted by the Rangers. Here's a few numbers then: Patrik Elias 1995-96 Albany River Rats .85 PPG over 74 games Mikail Grabovski 2006-07 Hamilton Bulldogs .82 PPG over 66 games
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Post by skunk on Jul 2, 2007 13:13:30 GMT -5
Here's a few numbers then: Patrik Elias 1995-96 Albany River Rats .85 PPG over 74 games Mikail Grabovski 2006-07 Hamilton Bulldogs .82 PPG over 66 games ...and a few more.....Patrik Elias in 1995-96, 19 years old, rookie professional. Mikail Grabovski 2006-07, 23 years old, 6 year professional.
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Post by montreal on Jul 2, 2007 14:16:13 GMT -5
Ah, the age old debate about a top twenty list. On a side note, I have seen the draft Edmonton Oil Kings schedule and White (Calgary) and Maxwell (Kootenay) will be here often, so I am hoping to see lots of their final WHL season. Cepek's Portland team is only hosted here once, but I will try and go as well even though injuries and a bad team have taken its toll on him as a possibility for a contract next summer. Hey NWT, Cepek is no longer with Portland, he's with the Oil Kings so you should get to see him a lot, let me know how he's doing next season, as well as the others you get to see. As for me, I am suprised at the list, to me Lahti at 25 it's hard to compare him with the younger guys. McDonagh I like but I want to wait and see how he handles the WCHA, it's risky to put a kid that high since he's only faced HS kids and one U-18 tournament. But I really liked what I saw from Fischer, so if McDonagh is even better, then thats great for us. To me Fischer is just so smart in his own end and so good at moving the puck. Can't wait to see the Minnesota-Wisconsin games. Chipchura was damn impressive in the playoffs, his line was the Dogs best at both ends of the rink. Should be interesting to see what he does in the NHL. Was really good on the PK in Hamilton. Pacioretty I only saw once and didn't notice him all that much other then he's big but seems to be a good skater with good speed. I look forward to seeing him at Michigan. I've been a big fan of both Kostitsyn's, Siarhei has been easily one of the most exciting to follow, due to the style London plays and his skill level, they play some exciting hockey, although it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to Lever's system since in London he would play such long shifts. I like White more then Maxwell but I'm glad we have both. White is one of those guys that if he can't play on the top 2 lines, he can play on the bottom 2 cause he's gritty and will take the body. I was more excited when we got him at the draft then either Maxwell or Carle picked before him, as I loved what I saw from him at the U-17's again Maxwell's team. But Maxwell has such good skating/speed and vision, so I can see why someone would put him higher. I personally would put Grabovski higher although he struggled with Kostitsyn and after that cheap knee on knee shot from Carcilo and the hand injury. Still he's also fun to watch cause he makes things happen on the ice with his speed, passing and shooting abilities. He works hard and is solid in his own end, just needs to use him linemates better, not hold onto the puck as much (like Kostitsyn did when he first came over) and improve in the face-off circle, unless they move him to wing. Subban I've seen little of so I can't really comment yet. I look forward to following him this year though. Emelin is in a good situation with AK Bars, they should have another good team and he won't have all that drama that he had with Lada since AK Bars is owned by one of the richest owners in the RSL. I hope we see him in a year or two. Should be interesting to see what Halak does this year, wonder what his future holds with us. I have been a member of the Ryan O'Byrne booster club since I saw him during his freshman year at Cornell. As a Cornell fan, they have a great coach and a great system, they forecheck hard and everyone works hard on the team. O'B was really impressive in Hamilton and I hope he can be a force for us in the near future. I am a lot higher on him then most, but I'd be happy to see him become a regular within the next 2 years. D'Agostini had a great year, struggled in the playoffs though, but his development is coming along nicely. I look forward to seeing how much Carle has improved his defensive game. I saw him a good bit with Bathurst and really liked how he moves the puck, only saw him once with Noranda but I've heard him say he worked on his defensive game while there. Weber seems like a solid pick, should make the jump to Hamilton next year since he's a late '88. Fortier is a hard working player with speed to burn, hope to see him add some mass to his frame over the next few years. Russell is another speedy player, works hard with lots of offensive skills. Not on the list but I expect a big year for Paquet, he was impressive with Clarkson in the playoffs, like O'B he's big but skates well with good speed and plays a physical game. I think Paquet plays a little more dirty, he was kicked out of a couple games this year for hits from behind but I got to see him play a good bit and he's making nice progress, hope to see him really step it up next year. Same goes for Wyman, he was moved to defense because of the injuries to Dartmouth's blueline, so clearly the coach has confidence in him, he said that Wyman played so well that they didn't want to move him back to wing. JT really stepped it up in the playoffs and with the loss of their best player in David Jones, he should see an increased role with the team.
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Post by skunk on Jul 2, 2007 14:49:20 GMT -5
I think there's a difference in how Timmins is rating prospects and how we inerpret it. He's rating them in terms of ultimate potential, where as often we rate them in terms of NHL-readiness and immediate impact. I don't doubt that McDonagh probably has very high potential to be an impact player -- at some point in the future -- but certainly a player like Grabovsky would have more impact than he if they were both thrust into the lineup tomorrow. But if that were the case, players would tend to rise on a ranking list as they got older. The reverse seems to happen. When they come into the organization, all bright and new and shiny, they are at the top of the list even though they are furthest from being ready to play in the NHL. As time goes by they slip down, almost regardless of their pro performance.
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Post by montreal on Jul 2, 2007 15:11:59 GMT -5
The club is trying to sign free agents Jerome Samson and Thomas Beauregard to two-year AHL contracts before the rookie camp. Beauregard is closer to being signed - Samson's agent is being more cantankerous. They have invited Mississauga goalie Andrew Loverock to the rookie camp. He should have been drafted. Samson signs with the Canes today. Hope they invite some LD's to camp. I had heard a while back that the Habs were scouting Dartmouth and were interested in Mike Hartwick, don't know how true that is, but it was said during an interview of another Dartmouth player according to the NCAA writer at HF.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 2, 2007 19:51:28 GMT -5
Hey NWT, Cepek is no longer with Portland, he's with the Oil Kings so you should get to see him a lot, let me know how he's doing next season, as well as the others you get to see. Montreal, thanks for the update. That does ring a bell now that you mention it. You have a deal, I will keep you up to date on how he and the others are doing throughout next season. I will also try to catch a number of the top draft eligible WHL guys as well, as there are a few good ones based on the early projections. I think that both White and Maxwell could have great years this year.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 2, 2007 20:10:50 GMT -5
To fill in the blanks from last night's post....
Emelin is really solid performer, who has been getting better at each stage of the game in his development. He really hasn't stumbled at any level yet as just turned 21. He was great at the WJC, made a few national teams for Euro tours, and finally got the big call at the Worlds this year. Compound this with his increasingly solid play in the RSL, and boy do I want to get this young man over here next summer if possible.
Halak has done exactly the same as Emelin, by blasting through each level of play with great success. Lewiston, Long Beach, Hamilton and now Montreal all saw this young man come out of nowhere and put up great numbers. An almost sure fire backup to Huet as the season progressed and Abby let things slip, slip away, he now has to contend with a young upstart who has really made his mark, all before his 20th.
O'Byrne is a product of a great NCAA system as Dan indicated. A solid coach and a really fine school to develop defensemen as they are committed to team defense game in and game out. He did hit the wall a little as those games accumulated way beyond the few dozen that he was used to in three years with the Ivy League Big Red, but he is big, strong and can skate well for a guy who will make Komo look up...albeit only an inch!! He turned it up a notch in the playoffs as did a lot of the Bulldogs. Not sure if he will edge out Cote for a spot right away, but expect him to be playing in the Phone Booth in the not too distant future.
D'Agostini is a never quit guy with speed, skill and work ethic. He had a really good rookie season, with a few slower stretches and some where he was absolutely on fire. He ended up scoring four goals in one game down the stretch. He is definitely on the radar screen for the Habs' brass and likely needs one more AHL season in an increasingly key role to get ready for the next jump.
Carle put up loads to points in the Q before his trade as he was leading all defencemen in the league in scoring. He was dealt to a much more defensively aware team and his point production slipped as a result. Let's hope the flip side was also true, and his defensive game improved proportionately as well. That was the knock on his game, but he will be going to Hamilton where they know defense and will be under the guidance of Coach Wilson who knows his stuff and will be a wonderful teacher.
Valentenko - a younger slightly bigger Emelin in some regards, with less success due to his younger age. He was the best player at the WJC when Price and company shut down the big Russian attack, so he can play against his peer and more than hold his own. A few years in the farm will work wonders, but he already brings some skill and jam to the table.
Weber, I don't really know much about him but like his scouting reports from his Rangers team and the fact he already has a couple of WJC under his belt. He apparently is a horse as he did wonders on the strength components at the combine. Teams often avoid or really discount Swiss players due to all the attractions of playing at home, but this kid moved here last year to show his willingness to make the NHL. That is worth a brownie point or two.
Fortier is a "safe" pick we keep hearing, so you get a slighter version of Lapierre with the same intensity and flat out skating. What's not to like, as teams need guys like this to keep the puck a long way from their own net, chip in with timely points and good hits and forechecks, and lead by example by not taking shifts off.
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Post by skunk on Jul 3, 2007 0:24:43 GMT -5
Regarding the Max Pacioretty/Erik Cole comparisons. They were born nearly exactly 10 years apart. Cole came from an eastern prep school to play in the USHL when he was the same age. He had 63 points in 48 games on a team that averaged 4.5 goals per game. Patch had 63 points in 60 games on a team that averaged 3.6 goals per game in the same league. Comparitively their production was virtually identical. The USHL is a much improved league from what it was a decade ago. Pacioretty has an inch or so, and 20 pounds on the 18 year old Cole, but Erik was a bit more fiesty.
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Post by Anardil1 on Jul 3, 2007 21:51:56 GMT -5
Regarding the Max Pacioretty/Erik Cole comparisons. They were born nearly exactly 10 years apart. Cole came from an eastern prep school to play in the USHL when he was the same age. He had 63 points in 48 games on a team that averaged 4.5 goals per game. Patch had 63 points in 60 games on a team that averaged 3.6 goals per game in the same league. Comparitively their production was virtually identical. The USHL is a much improved league from what it was a decade ago. Pacioretty has an inch or so, and 20 pounds on the 18 year old Cole, but Erik was a bit more fiesty. I hope they used Cole as a comparison more in their styles of play and upside, rather than statistical coincidences.
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Post by skunk on Jul 3, 2007 22:07:59 GMT -5
Those uh....."statistical coincidences" tend to happen when players have a similar "style of play and upside".
That is the whole point.
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Post by habmeister on Jul 4, 2007 0:11:16 GMT -5
Those uh....."statistical coincidences" tend to happen when players have a similar "style of play and upside". That is the whole point. there are tons of statistical coincidences that mean nothing, junior leads ohl in scoring and toils in the minors (locke). whereas others that led the ohl turn into nhl superstars. scouts look at stats only at the beginning to see if they can get a bit of a guage about the type of player before evaulating him based on his skills and genetic upside.
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Post by skunk on Jul 4, 2007 1:55:34 GMT -5
Corey Locke didn't lead the league in his draft year. He had 40 points or something as a 17 year old, and didn't even bother to opt in. He led the league the following year. He also led the Bulldogs in playoff scoring this past spring. By a wide margin. If the Habs give Locke playing time he will score as an NHLer, just as he has at every other level. Daniel Briere was still playing in the AHL when he was 22.
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