Things are getting Spicy in St. Louis! Offer sheet 2 Oilers

[Tankdriver]

From TSN:

The St. Louis Blues have tendered offer sheets to Edmonton Oilers restricted free agents Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway.

The offer to Broberg is for a two-year contract at $4,580,917 per year, the maximum offer that would require a second-round draft pick as compensation. The offer to Holloway is for a two-year contract at $2,290,457 per year, the maximum offer that would require a third-round draft pick as compensation.

The Oilers have seven days to match the offers from the Blues.


That's how you play the game! Oilers are screwed here. The only way they could get around this while still matching is putting Kane on LTIR or trading a few players, like Kane or RNH. Ideally they would dump Nurse and get a good defenceman at 4 million.

[Willie Dog]

That's vicious.... let's see Bowman wiggle out of this

[folatre]

I suppose the shock relates entirely to the fact that the offer sheet mechanism is so rarely used. Because if one looks at it from a reward/risk gambit, the Blues are potentially getting a couple of really nice young players for nothing more than a second and a third rounder, so St. Louis is not exactly sticking their neck out there in the way Carolina did to entice Kotkaniemi.

Well, I imagine Bowman does not want to lose either kid for such a paltry return. But he will have to pay handsomely to get someone to take Ceci and/or Kane, let alone what it would cost to move Nurse (which is probably a non-starter since he has a full NMC).

Also, I forget the rule -- does being 10 percent over the cap during the summer include guys set to go on LTIR?

Edmonton is in a tough spot now. St. Louis really jammed them up with what seems like very intelligent moves.

[NWTHabsFan]

I guess that is why the Blues and Pens swapped picks earlier…the Blues needed their own second round pick from 2025 back from the Pens to be able to make the offer sheet on Broberg.

Really nice move by Armstrong as the Oilers (and their controversial new GM) are in a jam. Tight against the cap and they need money to resign Drai at some point. They also don’t have much of a prospect pipeline to afford to lose one or both of their young up and comers. I expect that the Blues will be thrilled getting Broberg even if the Oilers match on Holloway to not lose both. I expect the Oilers can no longer protect both, and that is a lot for them to pay right now for Broberg given their cap situation.

The offseason just got fun again…

[seventeen]

This is partly why Hughes has been in a holding pattern. Things happen that no one expects (or maybe after that Blues/Pens deal, they thought an offer sheet was in the wind). There are several teams really tight to the CAP and that's an opportunity for the Habs. If there's a team with a top 6 forward who has underperformed, on the last year or two of his overvalued contract, that's what we would like. Maybe we can take Jeff Skinner off Edmonton's hands ($3MM cap hit for the next year) for a first rounder in 2028, say. That might be enough to solve the offer sheet problem without hurting themselves too much, while getting a defenseless, but good scoring forward. Ironic if it was Jeff Skinner, huh?

[Tankdriver]

Aug 13, 2024 13:15:27 GMT -5 seventeen said:

This is partly why Hughes has been in a holding pattern. Things happen that no one expects (or maybe after that Blues/Pens deal, they thought an offer sheet was in the wind). There are several teams really tight to the CAP and that's an opportunity for the Habs. If there's a team with a top 6 forward who has underperformed, on the last year or two of his overvalued contract, that's what we would like. Maybe we can take Jeff Skinner off Edmonton's hands ($3MM cap hit for the next year) for a first rounder in 2028, say. That might be enough to solve the offer sheet problem without hurting themselves too much, while getting a defenseless, but good scoring forward. Ironic if it was Jeff Skinner, huh?

It won't be Jeff Skinner. I think it comes down to Kane. I am guessing the Oilers will match Holloway as its a lower cost but I like both players and they should match both. Kane should get the Kucherov and Stone treatment....See you in march, enjoy therapy and rehabilitation days.

[Cranky]

We also made an offer...bucket of fries and bottle of ketchup...

I want no part of a slowly decaying 32 year old that needs a flashlight to find his own end.

I'm far more interested if there is pressure on someone like Philly or Jets that can shake out a youngster. While Demigod has taken the pressure off for finding another top 6, I still wont mind one as along as none of our current assets are in play. A trade for our next year 1st, top 10 protected is fine by me for Necas....as long as he's not the 9 million dollar man.

The interesting part of all this is that there could be a massive surprise that we never saw coming. Maybe something crazy like Mercer plus for CC type of crazy.

I'm good as we are and just pray to the Development Gods, but I still would trade my mother for the next Lapointe/Chelios.

[folatre]

Boys, Edmonton under Holland was handing out no trade clauses like Halloween candy. Kane has a full NMC, but he is going on LTIR because he is having hip surgery soon. Skinner went there to experience playoff hockey and chase a Cup. He has a full NMC too. Same for Nurse.

Ceci is tradeable with some kind of sweetener. I suppose Kulak could be moved without paying assets or retaining money.

It is hard to predict what Bowman will do. In my opinion, even if Broberg has not developed at the rate they were hoping when he drafted in the top ten, the kid could still fetch a first rounder projected in the 20-29 range, so taking the second round compensation from the Blues would have a bitter taste. Holloway, likewise, has not developed quite as advertised. And maybe I am biased because I still like him, but I would be shocked if he would not yield a pick in the 30-40 range, so again watching him walk for the third rounder will feel like a kick in the pills.

[drkcloud]

I'm bullish on Holloway. After watching him in the playoffs I think he may have finally figured things out and is ready to take off. And he has the ridiculous speed that we value so much. I think only McDavid is faster on the Oiler roster.

Very smart move by the Blues. I wish Hugo had done it. A 3rd rounder is definitely worth the roll of the dice here

[seventeen]

Aug 13, 2024 19:52:11 GMT -5 drkcloud said:

I'm bullish on Holloway. After watching him in the playoffs I think he may have finally figured things out and is ready to take off. And he has the ridiculous speed that we value so much. I think only McDavid is faster on the Oiler roster.

Very smart move by the Blues. I wish Hugo had done it. A 3rd rounder is definitely worth the roll of the dice here

They'll match on Holloway. Maybe not on Broberg because of the amount. If he doesn't pan out as a top 4 dman, $4+MM is too much. That's how I'd play it anyway, unless they can dump Ceci, who has little value anyway.

[Polarice]

Pretty slick move....the Blues know the Oilers are already over the cap by almost 1/2 mil so it puts pressure on them to move players or let them go. The LTIR doesn't kick in till the season regular season starts BTW, So that's no help.

[Andrew]

If the Oilers match on either I wonder how the players will be perceived in the dressing room. Signing an offer sheet seems to be very much a me-first move by young players on a team of veterans focused on winning.

[Cranky]

Can they be traded while on an offer sheet?

[seventeen]

I'm not sure I see it that way. Most of the Habs understood Kotkaniemi's situation and didn't begrudge him accepting an income $4MMm more than he would have gotten under Berg. The real issue is why would management ever allow themselves to be in the position where an offer sheet is possible. Sign the guy or trade him. Make up your mind. His teammates understood this and knew what Bergevin was like. I didn't hear one of them say that he "should have stayed".

[seventeen]

Aug 14, 2024 13:10:40 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Can they be traded while on an offer sheet?

They cannot, and not for a year after. By either team.

[jkr]

Aug 14, 2024 13:13:07 GMT -5 seventeen said:

I'm not sure I see it that way. Most of the Habs understood Kotkaniemi's situation and didn't begrudge him accepting an income $4MMm more than he would have gotten under Berg. The real issue is why would management ever allow themselves to be in the position where an offer sheet is possible. Sign the guy or trade him. Make up your mind. His teammates understood this and knew what Bergevin was like. I didn't hear one of them say that he "should have stayed".

I agree. I think teammates understand that this is a business & it's tough to turn down good offers.

[folatre]

For sure, aside from a portion of the Oiler's fan base, I do not think anyone would blame Broberg and Holloway for signing. Hockey is a business and NHL careers, unfortunately, can be short whether due to injury or the simple reality that a lot of guys never get traction in the role they were projected for when they got drafted.

Bowman has got to be sweating bullets, eh. Edmonton is Cup or bust, basically. So he has to accurately evaluate whether these two kids are valuable enough on the ice now in 2024-25 (Broberg second pair, Holloway middle six winger) to justify spending such significant cap space on them. Because if he judges that they are worth it, then he will be culling players/dollars from the roster to accommodate these young guys.

[Cranky]

I wonder if any of our guys were targetted.

The difference here is that Hughes has a good handle and takes them off the market.

Clearing up cap space of veterans is the key because as we get better, more money will be available.

[folatre]

On balance, Hughes has been very proactive with contracts. Xhekaj and Barron were the only Habs RFAs who were sitting there for four weeks this summer. Montreal had and continues to have plenty of cap space, so rival GMs probably figured why stir the pot. Of course, it would have been interesting if someone had offered Xhekaj what St. Louis tabled for Broberg how the player and the club would have reacted.

I suspect that Hughes had two or three offers for Xhekaj on the table on July 1, and basically said hey kid we love you so let's block out all the noise and just tell me at the end of the month which contract suits you best. In such a scenario, Xhekaj would not have been inclined to have his agent calling around because the total guaranteed money on a long-term deal (6 or 8 years) from Montreal would have been way more money (not AAV) than Broberg got from the Blues. I know nothing, but I have a feeling Xhekaj picked the short-term alternative because the kid believes that he is a late bloomer and feels confident that he has room to develop into a top four d-man.

[Willie Dog]

Aug 15, 2024 19:24:15 GMT -5 folatre said:

On balance, Hughes has been very proactive with contracts. Xhekaj and Barron were the only Habs RFAs who were sitting there for four weeks this summer. Montreal had and continues to have plenty of cap space, so rival GMs probably figured why stir the pot. Of course, it would have been interesting if someone had offered Xhekaj what St. Louis tabled for Broberg how the player and the club would have reacted.

I suspect that Hughes had two or three offers for Xhekaj on the table on July 1, and basically said hey kid we love you so let's block out all the noise and just tell me at the end of the month which contract suits you best. In such a scenario, Xhekaj would not have been inclined to have his agent calling around because the total guaranteed money on a long-term deal (6 or 8 years) from Montreal would have been way more money (not AAV) than Broberg got from the Blues. I know nothing, but I have a feeling Xhekaj picked the short-term alternative because the kid believes that he is a late bloomer and feels confident that he has room to develop into a top four d-man.

A top 4 unicorn 🦄

[Cranky]

X is popular with us for obvious reasons...and I'm betting my renovated outhouse management and coaches are equally smitten by what he brings.

I can't wait to see Mailman and X click on a line together. It will be an unholy alliance of pain.

I love to see Tom Wilson playing tough guy in front of our net. Or Reaves. They should have their house in order....

[jkr]

Oilers trade Ceci & may be in a position to match. Deadline is tomorrow:

www.habseyesontheprize.com/montreal-canadiens-news-cody-ceci-trade-san-jose-sharks-offer-sheets-philip-broberg-dylan-holloway-st-louis-blues-arber-xhekaj-florian-car-alex-barre-boulet-number-kaapo-kakko/

[NWTHabsFan]

It sure looks like Mike Grier did his old team a solid by only giving up a 3rd round pick and a solid depth defender to bail the Oil out of a cap mess. Hmmm

[Willie Dog]

[folatre]

Yes, I get it that Edmonton is probably going out into the market to try to land an experienced #4-5 d-man. But why did Bowman bother to waste a third rounder to ship Ceci off to San Jose if he was willing to let Broberg leave?

And the whole excuse, well Bowman extracted an extra third rounder and some B level prospect at Notre Dame from the Blues seems kind of silly. What does Edmonton care about two meh assets? They need to win the Cup and right now their third pair is composed of some combination of Troy Stretcher, Josh Brown, and Ty Emberson. Basically that is two journeymen best suited to fill the #7 role and some kid with 30 games of NHL experience.

[seventeen]

Aug 20, 2024 12:20:58 GMT -5 folatre said:

Yes, I get it that Edmonton is probably going out into the market to try to land an experienced #4-5 d-man. But why did Bowman bother to waste a third rounder to ship Ceci off to San Jose if he was willing to let Broberg leave?

And the whole excuse, well Bowman extracted an extra third rounder and some B level prospect at Notre Dame from the Blues seems kind of silly. What does Edmonton care about two meh assets? They need to win the Cup and right now their third pair is composed of some combination of Troy Stretcher, Josh Brown, and Ty Emberson. Basically that is two journeymen best suited to fill the #7 role and some kid with 30 games of NHL experience.

I usually think that the guy going back the other way on a CAP dump is an ECHL quality player, needed to balance the 50 contract limit. In this case we may be underrating Ty Emberson. I read a tweet from a Shark fan who said he might have been San Jose's best dman last year (which, frankly, isn't a high bar). Still, he's only just turned 24, is 6' 2", 193 lbs and was -4 in those 30 games. Mario Ferraro was -38 in 78 games and Jan Rutta was -21 in 69 games. The -4 has to be tempered since it was in the later half of the season when the Sharks started to play much better hockey. They were horrendous early on when Ferraro and Rutta probably pick up a lot of minuses. On the other hand (I can keep flipping back and forth on this all day long), perhaps the Sharks better play was because of Emberson.

We'll have a better idea of which of these two possibilities is true halfway through the coming season.

[Tankdriver]

Edmonton can't spend too much. They need money for new Draistl, McDavid and Bouchard contracts.

[folatre]

Supposedly, Knoblach knew Emberton and maybe put in a good word. And d-men sometimes follow a much slower development trajectory than forwards and need more seasoning in the AHL. However, given the Sharks being in a full on burn it to the ground rebuild, why would Grier and San Jose's pro scouts basically just say whatever take him we don't want a 24 year old RHD?

Edmonton is still in cap trouble, but assuming Bowman can convince Kane and his agent that surgery and a slow rehab are good for his future in the league, then there would seem to be no question that the Oilers are going out to buy an steady experienced RHD who can play with the sometimes erratic Nurse on the second pair.

[Cranky]

I like to help fellow Canadian teams...

Savard half retained to the Oil for a 1st and a 2nd in 2027

My generosity has no limits...

[Tankdriver]

Don't think you'll get that much for him (maybe just a first or second rounder) but I do see the Oilers as a possibility for him. He has his warts but he is a good shutdown/PK blocking machine and would play off Nurse well.