Corey Pronman's latest delusion

[seventeen]

Mr. Pronman of the Athletic has something against the Habs, I'm convinced. He has never been very high on many of our picks and now he has published

Ranking NHL rebuilds: Which teams are most likely to be contenders?

This was the subject of a Tony Marinaro/Brian Wilde laugh today on the Sick Podcast as they joked over the list.  I will copy it here for you and knowing it is behind a pay wall, will recommend The Athletic as a subscription worth having, not necessarily for Pronman's scouting.  Blake Wheeler, also of the Athletic, is much kinder to Montreal.

In comparing the NHL’s rebuilding teams against each other, this ranking aims to answer one question: Which organization is the most likely to build a Stanley Cup contender in the next decade? The list includes last season’s non-playoff teams whether they consider themselves rebuilders or not. The primary variables used to determine this list are the quality of young talent in the organizations, the current NHL roster and the amount of star or potential star talents a team has.

1. Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago’s rebuild is still a few years away from truly turning the corner, but the club is putting together the pieces it needs. The Blackhawks have the potential superstar every team is searching for in Connor Bedard. They also have a deep stable of young blue line players between Alex Vlasic, Kevin Korchinski, Artyom Levshunov and others. They could use a bit more skill in their organization, but they have premium center and defense talents. The Blackhawks could acquire scoring wingers through the open market as they will likely be a top free-agent choice by the time they start winning again.

2. Ottawa Senators

The rebuild has been slow and frustrating in Ottawa, but if you take a step back and look at the pieces the Senators have, it’s quite a promising group of young players. They have elite talent up front in Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk, they have center depth and they have premium talent on the blue line. With some steady goaltending, this is an organization that could break up the typical playoff teams in its division.

3. Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim is building up a highly desirable group of young talent, which includes Trevor Zegras who everyone knows is on the trading block. Zegras aside, the Ducks have a lot of young, high-end forward talent, led by Leo Carlsson, and a strong group of young defensemen, too. This is still a very young team that is likely a few more years of talent accumulation and growth away from emerging out of the league’s basement.

4. San Jose Sharks

Some people will be upset about how highly San Jose is slotted. The Sharks have a long way to go; they must basically add 50 points in the standings to get from last season to contending status. But there are pieces in place: their elite young talent led by No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini, a lot of quality young pieces they’ve accumulated lately and a lot of cap space. I don’t mean to insinuate they will be contending anytime soon — likely not even in the next five years — but they have a clear path to getting there.

5. New Jersey Devils

New Jersey is the closest to contention among the teams listed; it is a projected playoff team entering the season and had 112 points two seasons ago. The Devils have legit star talents in the Hughes brothers as well. That they are ranked fifth and not first is more reflective of the fact they are probably done accumulating talent, and the young core they assembled is excellent but not elite, hence why they missed the playoffs last year. If a few players take positive steps, that would change my analysis.

6. Utah Hockey Club

Utah (then-Arizona) has been building since it selected Clayton Keller in the top 10 in 2017, and the result of the last eight years has been some ups and downs but an organization trending in the right direction. Utah has some excellent prospects and a good, young roster as it tries to turn the corner into winning, including by acquiring strong veteran players like Mikhail Sergachev. Utah may not win right away in its first season but it has the components to win soon, although it arguably lacks a true superstar talent.

7. Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo has been a sexy pick to take a big step forward for several years now. The Sabres have drafted high for a long time and have built up an envious group of young players. They have two No. 1 blueliners in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power and a deep, talented group of forwards. They could become a contender, but at some point, if they can’t progress into a consistent playoff team, their young team will just look like previous iterations of Sabres rebuilds.

8. Seattle Kraken

Seattle’s expansion started off unsustainably hot, and then it came back to reality. It’s likely going to take time to build a real team, but the Kraken have three excellent young centers in Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton to start with. They will need to build up their blue-line talent, but their NHL team is already decent with the potential to improve.

9. Montreal Canadiens

Montreal has some very good young forwards in its organization. No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovsky had a good second NHL season, recent draftee Ivan Demidov is quite talented and seasoned young forwards Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield will be longtime NHL scorers. The Canadiens do need to find a true premium blueliner or two and ideally will get production from a healthy Kirby Dach, or else they will need to find some center help.

10. Minnesota Wild

The Wild are in a precarious position. Their NHL roster is one of the best among the 16 teams on this list. They have a solid farm system led by Zeev Buium and have quite a few strong prospects despite not drafting high. Hanging over any projection of the Wild’s future is star Kirill Kaprizov, though, who will be a highly desirable free agent in two years. If he were to resign, I would argue the Wild’s position one or two spots higher, but losing him would set them back years.

11. Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus’ organization has seemed to be in a rebuild from the second the franchise was born. I wish I could say it’s a quick fix away, but there are probably still a few more years of pain in Columbus. I am an Adam Fantilli super fan and think he has the potential to be a superstar and bring this franchise from the gutter. After him, there are some very good young pieces, but I don’t see the star-level projections on a lot of the Blue Jackets’ recent high picks.

12. Detroit Red Wings

Detroit has a quality NHL team. The Red Wings were top 10 in the league in goals last season. They also have a solid farm system with some excellent high picks on the way who will be pushing for NHL time soon. So why 12th? If this was about becoming a playoff team, I could rank Detroit higher, but I’m looking at the path to winning it all, and other than Dylan Larkin and Moritz Seider, I don’t see the true premium pieces in this organization to carry them the distance.

13. Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers took positive steps forward at the NHL level this season, but it arguably set their rebuild mildly back as they ended up picking 13th in the draft. I expect their team to be close to the bottom of the standings next season. Matvei Michkov is an elite prospect and could be a star in the league, but they need a lot more than him.
14. St. Louis Blues

St. Louis is stuck in the middle right now as an organization. The Blues have a decent NHL team and farm system, but neither are very strong and there are questions about what their long-term strategy is. They have the pieces to become a potential bubble playoff team, but I don’t see how they get past that level.

15. Calgary Flames

Calgary is beginning a downward path in its rebuild cycle after being a top team for several years. It started well with the drafting of Zayne Parekh, but this is probably the beginning of their troubles; the Flames aren’t a quick fix or two away from being a winner again.

16. Pittsburgh Penguins

It’s tough times in Pittsburgh right now. The Penguins have missed the playoffs the last two years, their farm system is rather thin, and the direction seems to be to try and find a way to make it work with the Sidney Crosby group as opposed to doing a complete reset and acquiring high lottery picks. I honestly don’t know what the path forward is to becoming a contender again, as it seems either nearly impossible or 8-10 years away.

Frankly, I think Mr. Pronman has lost some of his analytical marbles.  I think Montreal should be in the top 5, if not higher.  I think that to rank Ottawa and Seattle (of all bloody teams) ahead of Monreal, shows a lack of appreciation for talent.  He seems to discount Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, Guhle etc as second pairing guys at best.  His plaudits for Suzuki, Slafkovsky and Caufield seem lukewarm despite them being a dominating line last year and he seems to think Demidov is a 'nice young man'.  My guess is that Montreal will win the cup before any of the above teams.    Regardless, my respect for Pronman has dropped a few more rungs. 

[Willie Dog]

I think a Habs fan cheated on him and he's still has a grudge

[frozone]

Yikes, I don't think Pronman thinks very straight. What he set out to do here just doesn't make much sense. His objective isn't even clear. Is he actually ranking each team's rebuild? Or is he predicting who is most likely to be a contender? Ultimately, it looks like he's trying to forecast which of these teams will be contenders within the next decade, but to do that you need to assess the actual work of the front offices orchestrating these rebuilds. Instead, Pronman is more or less just ranking the current talent pools of each team... "The primary variables used to determine this list are the quality of young talent in the organizations, the current NHL roster and the amount of star or potential star talents a team has." Yet, he gave Chicago a boost in the rankings because the "Blackhawks could acquire scoring wingers through the open market as they will likely be a top free-agent choice by the time they start winning again." Pronman is all over the place.

So depending on which way the wind is blowing at any given time, I can see why Pronman ranks Ottawa #2, but why does he have trust in Ottawa's front office in steering Ottawa into contention? Sometimes, the hole isn't a positional one; it could be poor coaching, lack of leadership, lack of toughness, team unity, etc. and their front office hasn't shown that they can address some of these holes. They are waaaaay behind schedule in their rebuild and are trending towards mediocrity.

As for Montreal, I do have concerns about who our #1 Dman is going to be and we do have a bit of uncertainty at center (for this upcoming season anyway). Also goaltending will need to be better. But our front office has proven that they can make the right choices for this team and the development of our youngsters. We're on a growth trend and should be up there on this list - no question about it.

[seventeen]

The defense seems to be the one aspect of the team that keeps getting addressed as not having star quality on it. In juniour and NCAA, Guhle and Hutson respectively were stars against their peer groups. Guhle was pressed into a #1 role right from the start, put on his wrong side and asked to cover for Mike Matheson who often went on risky journeys, which occasionally worked out, but more often resulted in turnovers and problems for Guhle. He's a great skater, he's big enough and strong enough and has never had the chance to showcase his offensive abilities. He's been affected by Covid shortened seasons and by injury in the NHL, yet has still impressed with his play and shown some very interesting flashes at times. I don't just think he can be a #1 Dman, I think he WILL be a #1 dman. He just needs to get away from Matheson.

I had the same concerns about Hutson's size until he played those two games late last season. They weren't against the loser Sens, or against the golf anticipating Leafs who were entrenched and playing out the string. They were against a desperate Red Wing team playing for their playoff lives. Sure, he was sheltered, but he showed he wasn't getting smashed into the boards or being forced into many physical battles. His transition plays were excellent and offensively, he was exactly what we expected. In a clip from a few days ago, with players having pickup games, Hutson attacked Guhle and after getting around him and making a play, Guhle playfully grabbed him from behind, lifted him off the ice and put him back down again, saying in French "I never had a chance". H

Hutson needs to improve his top end speed. It's the one weakness to his skating. If he can do that, he can be a dynamic offensive force without hurting the team on the back end.

Mailloux and Reinbacher might both end up as top pair defenders. Xhekaj might if he continues his progression. The main point is that HuGo have thrown a lot of darts at the board, hoping one hits. They only need one, because the rest of the D is highly talented anyway and the depth will be problematic only from the contract standpoint.

[Cranky]

Didn't Pronman rank defenseman on jockey strap sizes? Gave "my team is bigger then your team" a whole new meaning...

I couldn't care less what a bobbing head doll writes. Hockey is not rocket science so when his opinion strays too far from common sense, then ignore and dismiss.

[jkr]

Sept 11, 2024 13:35:09 GMT -5 frozone said:

Yikes, I don't think Pronman thinks very straight. What he set out to do here just doesn't make much sense. His objective isn't even clear. Is he actually ranking each team's rebuild? Or is he predicting who is most likely to be a contender? Ultimately, it looks like he's trying to forecast which of these teams will be contenders within the next decade, but to do that you need to assess the actual work of the front offices orchestrating these rebuilds. Instead, Pronman is more or less just ranking the current talent pools of each team... "The primary variables used to determine this list are the quality of young talent in the organizations, the current NHL roster and the amount of star or potential star talents a team has." Yet, he gave Chicago a boost in the rankings because the "Blackhawks could acquire scoring wingers through the open market as they will likely be a top free-agent choice by the time they start winning again." Pronman is all over the place.

So depending on which way the wind is blowing at any given time, I can see why Pronman ranks Ottawa #2, but why does he have trust in Ottawa's front office in steering Ottawa into contention? Sometimes, the hole isn't a positional one; it could be poor coaching, lack of leadership, lack of toughness, team unity, etc. and their front office hasn't shown that they can address some of these holes. They are waaaaay behind schedule in their rebuild and are trending towards mediocrity.

As for Montreal, I do have concerns about who our #1 Dman is going to be and we do have a bit of uncertainty at center (for this upcoming season anyway). Also goaltending will need to be better. But our front office has proven that they can make the right choices for this team and the development of our youngsters. We're on a growth trend and should be up there on this list - no question about it.

It's as if he has ranked Chicago 1st and is trying to force a verdict without facts. The Hawks getting his number spot because they COULD acquire scoring wingers? Pretty weak. And if he applied any weight to the abilities of front offices how does Ottawa, with a new management team, get 2nd place when they have missed the playoffs 7 years running?

[folatre]

I disagree with his analysis. And frankly, the methodology is silly. Why in the world would any sensible hockey observer decide that every team that missed the playoffs the previous season is actually 'rebuilding.'

For example, Pittsburgh has not parted ways with any of their legacy stars. Where is the rebuild there? New Jersey was great in 2022-23 and knocked out the Rangers in round one. They have the same core now as then, so why act like the Devils are rebuilding. And there are others teams on the list that are simply not in any phase of a rebuild.

Is he his own editor? Because if someone had any sort of oversight authority, that individual should have said hey Cory the premise of this piece you wrote does not make any sense, back to the drawing board bud.

[seventeen]

Two good replies above. The Chicago choice is silly. Yes, they have Bedard and then a bunch of guys with more question marks than we have. Is Korchinski going to get any better? Is Levshunov really a #1 Dman? Will Frank Nazar or Oliver Moore transition to the pro game well? Who's coming on defence. Do they really think Vlasic is in the same ball park as Guhle? (Vlasic was used as a comp by pundits when considering Guhle's contract pre-signing).

Pronman's valuing CAP space far too greatly. Look what it cost to sign Foligno and Perry. Does he think Davidson can fill in the gaps through UFA's, guys who are generally a year or 2 away from the proverbial cliff? I'd have them around #4 or 5. If I was using the same teams (which folatre points out is a flawed premise), I'd have NJ first, Anaheim 2nd (in large part because of Martin Madden Jr) and then the Habs.

[Willie Dog]

On Marinaro's Sick Podcast Craig Button called what Pronman did a "Quite a Useless Exercise"

Goto the 27 minute mark to hear it

www.youtube.com/live/rEknPeg-GG4?si=qhs1YSF5cTjgr7Or

[Polarice]

I'm surprised someone hired him to write about hockey.

[seventeen]

Sept 12, 2024 3:51:22 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

On Marinaro's Sick Podcast Craig Button called what Pronman did a "Quite a Useless Exercise"

Goto the 27 minute mark to hear it

www.youtube.com/live/rEknPeg-GG4?si=qhs1YSF5cTjgr7Or

Button is right on this point and as they both said, there are numerous examples of later picks exceeding those picked earlier. So maybe being ranked 9th is a good thing.

Partly in Pronman's defense, Chicago has had a LOT of early picks the last 3 years. They've had 8 first round picks in the last 3 years. Normally a team has 3.06% of the first round picks. Chicago had 8.33% of the first rounders the last 3 years. You throw more darts, you get more chances to hit. But your scouts have to do their jobs. Will all 8 of those guys hit? How many will be difference makers? There's a lot of risk in putting Chicago first, compared to Anaheim who have prospects who have already proved something in the early years of their NHL careers or have developed further in lower leagues (Cutter Gauthier for example).

The one difference I can see with Montreal is that they have more big prospects than many of the other teams. Many of Chicago's prospects are not big, being average or slightly below average in size. Outside of Caufied, Montreal's better prospects (who are further along the development line than Chicago's) are 6 feet or taller and heavier (eg Newhook at 200 lbs). So while Pronman can point to highly skilled players in other organizations, many are smaller or lighter, and when the blinders go on the refs in the playoffs, that size matters. It's unfortunate as I'd rather have it the other way and not allow useless big 4th liners to get away with murder.

[Cranky]

I wouldn't get my camo thong into a knot over what Pronman said.

Players are who they are by their mid 20s. So the further back you go from that age, the harder it is to predict who they will be AT that age. Then multiply that by a dozen key players and you got so many unknowns that making a prediction is a dart board.

We have one of the most unpredictable young defense i have ever seen. Other the Guhle the rest are from tweeners to top 2. Together they may grow to a new version of the Ministry of Defense...or a pile of mediocrity.

THIS season is going to be the biggest indicator of what our defense really is. 3 of our "projected" top 6 are still in diapers with a combined 3 NHL games. By the end of the season we should have at least 1, possibly 2 or dream that all 3 are in the NHL.

If all 3 are in the NHL it still doesn't mean we are automatically future contenders. What level are they going to be in 5 years?

So many unknowns on one team alone that for ANYONE to predict an outcome on 16 teams is nothing more then clickbait nonsense.