Annual point prediction 2024-25

[Cranky]

After watching the last 4 preseason games and how miserable our specialty teams are, I lost most of the hope I had for the upcoming season. With Laine gone for a third of the season, even more down on the team.

I'm having a very hard time putting any confidence in MSL. He looks like he's great getting guys motivated individually but I see zero team identity. No identifiable system. Rinse and repeat on a miserable pp with no innovation or different think. PK is a bunch of chickens on panic.

I don't have the confidence i had before the preseason. Now it's even lower. I lay most of the blame on MSL because now he has the players, but he hasn't shown any ability to instil an identifiable defensive system, he seems to be stuck in his thinking about the specialty teams. The "players coach" reputation is great, but we're not a university team.

On top of all that, the three players that I had hoped would get to the next level are nowhere near ready. Mailman is making fundamental mistakes and barely bottom 6, X has regressed a bit and Hutson is great offensively but as weak as I feared defensively. He's actually avoiding contact in the corners.

Forwards, Dach is back but Roy is not top 6 and Beck is not pushing Dvo or Evans out of a job. Nor is Kapanen.

Frankly, I would fire MSL if we don't get past 70 points. If we don't get to 90 points then all this bottom feeding and drafting has failed. The 90 points are a benchmark were we can say with any confidence that the team has improved and now ready to take the next step to contention with more maturity and Demidov/Haig.

So for me, it better be between 85 to 89 points.

What say you?

[drkcloud]

It feels like it's too early to say but the lack of any system implementation is pretty evident. Individual motivation is great until you have 23 guys playing as individuals. MSL has shown himself to be what would be a great assistant coach working with players but his lack of experience is showing. As you say Cranky, thus team seems to lack an identity. Even our captain, skilled and classy as he may be, seems to lack intensity that cup winning teams possess.

The loss of Laine is tough. This is still a one line team without him. What happens if Slaf takes a step back? Hutson needs some time in the AHL in my opinion. I guess I just don't see us scoring many more goals to have us move up the standings. I think playoffs are still out of reach by a long shot. I see MSL being relieved of coaching duties at the end of the season for some other post in the organization.

I went with 75 to 79. I hope I'm proven to be a pessimist but my gut sees little to no improvement

[Tankdriver]

I got it in the 75-79 point range aswell. Losing Laine is a big loss. I'm also not sold on this goaltending group.

Even if Fowler is the next one, he is what, 3 years away?

I think we need some more veteran leadership, someone who plays the PK and gives his all every night. I hate to say this, but Danault is like the perfect guy we need as a third line center and was the first guy to come to mind.

[seventeen]

Sheesh you guys. A few lousy exhibition losses when only half the team is dressed and you've all drunk the beer until it's a glass half empty. C'mon, brighten up!

I have been in the forefront complaining about Marty's lack of a defensive structure and he still hasn't proved much in that regard. I'm hoping that they have an idea of what they're supposed to do and that it will come together. Also, I expect to spend more time in the other team's zone this year anyway, so really, it's all about speed and backchecking. You do that and your D will have an easy time recovering the puck and transitioning it out. Backchecking is 75% of good defensive hockey.  I would love to hire Carbonneau as an assistant. Get him there and watch the defensive structure improve.

But on an individual player matter:
Matheson hardly played and he's a least a solid second pair guy. Guhle played one game because of an injury. We were testing our young dmen the entire camp, so Hutson, Struble, Mailloux, Xhekaj, Barron and Engstrom all played a LOT. Inexperience hurt at times and we saw that Mailloux and Engstrom need time in Laval. The good news is that Barron looked better than last year, though he has to prove that at a faster pace when the season starts. Struble is even better than last year and is ready to show his nasty side. Guhle's check in today's game showed that he's ready to be nasty as well. Xhekaj took a hiatus from improving his overall game to send some messages and further solidify the already strong bond between the players on the team. Hutson showed he can be electric and his defensive game isn't bad at all. He doesn't defend the way everyone else does because he'd be splattered into the boards if he did. His main deficiency, as recorded by various pundits, is that his backward skating isn't strong, so he has to turn early. That's something Nicolas can work with him on, in addition to improving top end speed. But he's never going to be even 180 lbs, so we fans have to expect he will not do what we're used to seeing others do, but that doesn't mean he'll be ineffective. He 's been great at every level, and everyone, at every level, has been way bigger than him.

Up front, the whole camp was about figuring out who should stay and who should go to Laval and even then, contracts will come into play, so meritocracy won't apply. Roy didn't have a great camp and we saw almost nothing of the top line. Dach played a decent amount, as he should have, in order to work out the rust. We also saw Armia, Dvorak, Gally (when he dressed) and Newhook play well. Heineman, Tuch looked solid and ready to contribute when called up. 

The one area which is unpredictable is goal. Monty might look like crap when it doesn't count and focused when it does. I have my fingers crossed there.  It was great to see Dobes have a couple of good appearances, in case Primeau falters.

Coaching wise, MSL has to stop experimenting, put some lines together and keep them together for 10 games or so before deciding they don't work. That's unless Anderson is on one of those lines because he's the smoking gun.

I was confident we'd be battling for a playoff spot and Laine's injury has hurt that a bit. But I'm not changing my mind. I'm going with 90-96 points, probably on the lower side, but I think any high pick we have this year is coming from Calgary not our own.

(I'm still be delusionally optimistic that Florida will miss the playoffs because I've spent a bundle on voodoo dolls and carbon steel, diamond studded pins). Eff you Bennett.

[CentreHice]

So many things have to go in the right direction for us to hit WC status this season--a 15-20 pt. improvement from last year.

Health is already a concern.

Special teams appear to be anything but special...so far...preseason being what it is.

Any NHL goalie is capable of grand theft on occasion, but Monty-Primeau are going to have to be THE story on many nights. Can't see it happening.

Once again resigned to watching a Habs' season with very little expectation and low emotional investment.

Such is the pain of a bottom-feeder rebuild. Baby steps.

80-84 points.

[folatre]

Well, the interesting thing thus far in this thread is that I agree with many of the observations posited by posters predicting anywhere from 75 points to 90 points. Perhaps that underscores the difficulty in getting a good read on this roster at this stage of its development.

The reasons that I am optimistic are threefold. First, I like the first line a lot and believe its maturation will prove last year's numbers were no fluke. Next, Montreal has more depth than in the recent past, so the guys in the bottom rungs of the lineup, particularly if injuries do not hit hard, are good NHLers relative to the role they are being asked to play. Last, losing Laine stinks, but the second line with Dach for a full season will be better than it is was last season, regardless of whether any winger playing with him pots 25+ goals.

Unfortunately, I see a number of things that make me apprehensive or less bullish about this group's chances in 2024-25. Starting with the obvious, the special teams look terrible and frankly I do not see the boys (or the coaches) figuring out to flip the switch for the regular season. And corollaries to bottom quintile (or even bottom third) special teams are twofold: the Habs are extremely unlikely to reach 250 goals with a bad power play; being both highly penalized and inept on the PK is a meat grinder for goalies. And finally, while I do not question the players' work ethic or on ice effort, Montreal's play in all three zones lacks cohesion and reliability because there is simply too little structure.

St. Louis' first season was 68 points; last season was 76 points; and while I am not a believer in linear progression (because from a probability standpoint, it is actually highly improbable), I just happen to think the Habs rise to 84 points.

Would that be pint half-empty or half-full? Well, that will actually depend on how 2025-26 transpires.

[seventeen]

Regarding the power play....I have an idea. Just ask Nick Suzuki to run it. I'm serious.

When I was 16, I played with a group of guys in a men's soccer league, some of who had pro experience at the second level in Italy. Our coach was an older man who had been a very good prospect in Hungary playing on a National youth team. Sounds good, right? Well that coach had absolutely no clue how to set up a lineup. He'd put the right guys in the wrong position and so on. What the players did was just nod their heads at the coach, applaud the lineup and then go out and switch it to what it should be. They knew what to do. So does Nick.

[Skilly]

I've gotten this prediction thread correct 5 years in a row. And maybe I should just zip my lip this year, because I think this is going to be a very ugly season.

We all were excited for this season and thought we'd have two scoring lines and offensive production from the back end like we've never seen before. Lane Hutson has been a bright spot, and likely won a roster spot. But the top three lines have been god awful. I'm not sure how anyone could have watched those preseason games and come away thinking we will have one 30 goal scorer, let alone the 2-3-4 some were predicting 2 weeks ago.

We will not be playing meaningful games in March. And we will struggle to get 80 points. But, I'll say 82, to show I have optimism

[Douper]

If we can't figure out the power play we are going to be a 80pts team max. What a sad preseason

[chicagohabs]

Not on board with uber negative thoughts on this team, lots of good solid young players they'll be improved, but I don't expect kids long from their prime to be world beaters just yet.

[Bobs_HABit]

Oct 6, 2024 2:24:41 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Sheesh you guys. A few lousy exhibition losses when only half the team is dressed and you've all drunk the beer until it's a glass half empty. C'mon, brighten up!

I have been in the forefront complaining about Marty's lack of a defensive structure and he still hasn't proved much in that regard. I'm hoping that they have an idea of what they're supposed to do and that it will come together. Also, I expect to spend more time in the other team's zone this year anyway, so really, it's all about speed and backchecking. You do that and your D will have an easy time recovering the puck and transitioning it out. Backchecking is 75% of good defensive hockey.  I would love to hire Carbonneau as an assistant. Get him there and watch the defensive structure improve.

But on an individual player matter:
Matheson hardly played and he's a least a solid second pair guy. Guhle played one game because of an injury. We were testing our young dmen the entire camp, so Hutson, Struble, Mailloux, Xhekaj, Barron and Engstrom all played a LOT. Inexperience hurt at times and we saw that Mailloux and Engstrom need time in Laval. The good news is that Barron looked better than last year, though he has to prove that at a faster pace when the season starts. Struble is even better than last year and is ready to show his nasty side. Guhle's check in today's game showed that he's ready to be nasty as well. Xhekaj took a hiatus from improving his overall game to send some messages and further solidify the already strong bond between the players on the team. Hutson showed he can be electric and his defensive game isn't bad at all. He doesn't defend the way everyone else does because he'd be splattered into the boards if he did. His main deficiency, as recorded by various pundits, is that his backward skating isn't strong, so he has to turn early. That's something Nicolas can work with him on, in addition to improving top end speed. But he's never going to be even 180 lbs, so we fans have to expect he will not do what we're used to seeing others do, but that doesn't mean he'll be ineffective. He 's been great at every level, and everyone, at every level, has been way bigger than him.

Up front, the whole camp was about figuring out who should stay and who should go to Laval and even then, contracts will come into play, so meritocracy won't apply. Roy didn't have a great camp and we saw almost nothing of the top line. Dach played a decent amount, as he should have, in order to work out the rust. We also saw Armia, Dvorak, Gally (when he dressed) and Newhook play well. Heineman, Tuch looked solid and ready to contribute when called up. 

The one area which is unpredictable is goal. Monty might look like crap when it doesn't count and focused when it does. I have my fingers crossed there.  It was great to see Dobes have a couple of good appearances, in case Primeau falters.

Coaching wise, MSL has to stop experimenting, put some lines together and keep them together for 10 games or so before deciding they don't work. That's unless Anderson is on one of those lines because he's the smoking gun.

I was confident we'd be battling for a playoff spot and Laine's injury has hurt that a bit. But I'm not changing my mind. I'm going with 90-96 points, probably on the lower side, but I think any high pick we have this year is coming from Calgary not our own.

(I'm still be delusionally optimistic that Florida will miss the playoffs because I've spent a bundle on voodoo dolls and carbon steel, diamond studded pins). Eff you Bennett.

Agree with most of this.
I'm usually on the more pessimistic side on the preseason prediction and like to see what Vegas has. Currently the over/under on Hab points is 76.5 and I absolutely love the over. I'm a little worried about the general lack of goals on the team and they really need a couple players to have career years or unexpected better luck. That said, they had wins 15 of their first 33 games last year before falling off a cliff and only winning 15 of the remaining 49 games. I think they're closer to the first part of last season and I can see a 36-36-10 type season where they will argue they reached .500 (a fake nod with the loser point) but that will be this season's step.

[Polarice]

I have us at 80-84. Before the Laine I had us at a bubble team around 92-96 points. I'm not sold on our special teams, MSL seems hesitant to change it up and put a cannon on the point. He keeps putting Gally on the PP and PK which he seems useless on both. Unless the system changes, this will be a waste of a year and we will finish too high to get a decent pick.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

87. We have given leeway to the management for a rebuild and suffered terrible years.

[Cranky]

This is our second PP unit....

Hutson, ABB, Newhook, Armia, Gallagher

We here in HabsRus believe in prediction freedom. You are free to change your point prediction as you see fit.

[habsorbed]

I'm going with playing 500 hockey as the prediction (and goal) for this season. Would predict higher if we had Laine.

I just don't see the team competing for a playoff spot with it's current make-up. The studs still have to develop and are 3 or 4 years from their prime. A team with this roster can be a playoff contender in one of 3 ways: 1) a good PP - top half of the league; 2) a well structured team that can defend; or 3) a goalie that can steal a number of games. We have none of those. The first two are on the coaching staff. I thought Marty would get the PP going before structure but no signs of either happening. I think that's what has so many so frustrated. By all acounts we have the offensive talent to have a good PP. But nada. FWIW, most playoff teams are in the top half of the league on the PP, and the ones that aren't in the top half ain't far behind. So the PP will be the true indicator of how this team will do this year.

Anyway, 500 hockey is better than we've been. Baby steps! And yes, 500 hockey is the bare minimum for Marty to keep his job.

[seventeen]

If the PP continues it's woeful ways after 10 games, I think someone needs to whisper in Marty's ear that he should stay as far away from the PP as possible (I'm using politically correct language here as the actual words would involve a lot of 'f's).

If that doesn't work, Hughes needs to bring someone in someone (Markov, Carbonneau) who knows what they're doing on the PP and if Marty doesn't like it, he can retire. Hopefully he accepts that there are some parts of his game where his four dimension chess brain just doesn't work. We are never winning a Cup without a good PP.

[IamCanadiens]

85 pts and a full season of Dach will be the biggest reason. Hutson will emerge as our PP QB. The second half of the season will get a big jolt with Laine's return. There will still be a lot of growing pains but the foundation for success is set. There's such a fine line that separates teams in this league. It's another development year so I'm indifferent on where the Habs end up. I just want to see the young guys continue to develop and the team stick to long term success. Five years from now I sure as heck won't remember whether they ended up with 75 or 85 points.

[Tankdriver]

I guess my 70-75 point prediction might be too much.