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Post by Cranky on Oct 15, 2024 17:48:06 GMT -5
I wanted to say something in a thread but it's better as a discussion by itself.
1...do you think Hutson will win the Calder?
2...where do you think Hutson will end up in average season points in a few years?
And I'm going to make a bold statement...if Hutson had the size to be Guhle level effective defensively, he would knocking on the door of the greats like Bobby Orr.
(No, my meds are fine.)
So...what is your opinion of what looks like a special talent.
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Post by Tankdriver on Oct 15, 2024 18:15:52 GMT -5
I don't think he will win the Calder unless he gets PP1 time and the goalies stop a few more pucks. +/- are looked at more closely as defenceman. Michkov or Celebrini are my favourites.
As for point prediction, I could see low 60's this year and maybe a point per game player moving forward.
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Post by Cranky on Oct 15, 2024 18:42:02 GMT -5
I don't think he will win the Calder unless he gets PP1 time and the goalies stop a few more pucks. +/- are looked at more closely as defenceman. Michkov or Celebrini are my favourites. As for point prediction, I could see low 60's this year and maybe a point per game player moving forward. 60 or more may be enough to put him into the Calder. It looks like the only one that can keep up with Hutson and cover for him well enough is Guhle. That basically screws up Matheson because he has to play with Savard OR Barron. Neither of them can keep up. The player that can keep up is Mailloux, who is going to make as many mistakes as Matheson. The one eyed helping the one eyed... We are really in the position of fill a hole, dig a hole with our defenseman and their level of development. So we effectively will have one top pairing with an offensive genius (and a defensive liability) backed by a defensive star. Then a whole bunch of adventures and cringe... |
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Post by chicagohabs on Oct 15, 2024 19:10:30 GMT -5
I don't think he will win the Calder unless he gets PP1 time and the goalies stop a few more pucks. +/- are looked at more closely as defenceman. Michkov or Celebrini are my favourites. As for point prediction, I could see low 60's this year and maybe a point per game player moving forward. I don't but liked the odds when I made my bets this year for the Habs: Habs bets $550 to make playoffs at 7-1 pays $3850 $406.73 to get 78+ pts at 1.87 pays $760.59 St. Louis to win Jack Adams $6.45 at 31-1 pays $199.95 Hutson to win Calder $2.50 at 8-1 pays $20 so ya not that much confidence  ) Also got the Oilers to beat leafs in finals at $10 at 81-1 for $810 payout. We came into a big chunk of cash selling our house so figured why not let some ride on this season to make things more interesting. |
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Post by Skilly on Oct 15, 2024 19:47:58 GMT -5
My concerns with Hutson are twofold
1) he gets injured. The league players seemingly also try to target MTL dynamic players. I suspect the more he dangles, the more players will try to put him in his place, so to speak
2) his lack of shooting. I never played hockey at a high level, but if I have him figured out then rest assured the league has him figured out. For proof, Kris Letang was interviewed by a French reporter (Renault Lavoie?) and surprisingly he revealed PIT's scouting report on Lane Hutson. Apparently, the scouting report is to give him some space, and he will get over confident, do his dangles, and when he dangles you take away his passing options (cause he isn't shooting, I added that), and he will force a rookie pass.
As for the Calder. The Habs record for points by a rookie defenseman is 64 points (Chris Chelios - 1985). The second most is 45 (Tom Kurvers, also in 1985). PK got 38. Lane should get more than Kurvers if he stays healthy. I'll say he gets 50. For him to get more, the team needs to start shooting more
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Post by folatre on Oct 15, 2024 20:31:50 GMT -5
How about those numbers, Chicago. Love it.
It is hard to predict because Celebrini is injured, though it does not sound like anything too serious. Michkov should be able to pot 30 goals if he is getting PP1 and top six minutes, but his coach could get sour about the kid cheating out of the d-zone or whatever and then he could stapled to the bench. What if that Wolf kid in net for the Flames won 20-25 games and had a save percentage in the .910-.915 range?
Anyway, yes, Hutson should certainly be in the mix. I think he will be in the 50 points vicinity, which would be a fantastic rookie season for a d-man. I am sure the kid wants to play every night (back to backs, four in six nights, etc.). But the NHL season is a physical grind and everyone gets tired and some guys actually lose weight. For me Hutson needs a little load management in this first marathon of his pro career, keep him out the road game on a back to back, pick one game out of four in six nights to rest him.
Quinn Hughes' rookie season (age 20, same as Hutson now) was 53 points (8 goals) in 68 games, averaging just less than 22 minutes a night. Can Hutson match that? Maybe, but they are different players.
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Post by Cranky on Oct 15, 2024 21:38:09 GMT -5
It would be terrible. Just terrible. A crime really...
Hutson this year and Demidov next year.
Last Habs Calder winner was Dryden. And we NEVER won back to back
Oh the inhumanity of it all if we draft so much talent. We might have to put mattresses under high place for HNIC crews after watching Habs fly up one direction while Laffs are handing out retirement cushions.
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Post by habsask on Oct 15, 2024 22:14:38 GMT -5
Well, Hutson was a minus 4 on Monday. That will need to improve before he's considered special.
For me at least.
Cheers.
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Post by habsorbed on Oct 16, 2024 0:33:07 GMT -5
Well, Hutson was a minus 4 on Monday. That will need to improve before he's considered special. For me at least. Cheers. I agree he ain't likely to win if he's got a bad plus/minus. But one has to take into account the team the rookie is playing for. As for last night, two of those minuses were when he had the green light as we were behind late in the game. And I don't count minuses for being on the ice when giving up an empty netter. That's just a dumb league rule. If you ain't counting plus/minus on the PP/PK, why are you doing it for the goalie pulled situation? They're both extra-man situations. Wake up NHL, |
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Post by habsorbed on Oct 16, 2024 0:43:57 GMT -5
Lane's got a better chance than anyone. The kid is amazing.  The only if is if he gets injured.  What depresses me about this thread is seeing Mitchov in the discussion. He could have been ours! And where is Rienbacher now? I know it's early, but i got an uneasy feeling.  The good news is one can only hope that Demidiov follows the same path as Mitchov.  Although the drama unfoldng with SKA is a little much.  I see DemiGod finally got some TOI today and got a goal in the SKA win.  |
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Post by Skilly on Oct 16, 2024 11:19:31 GMT -5
Well, Hutson was a minus 4 on Monday. That will need to improve before he's considered special. For me at least. Cheers. I agree he ain't likely to win if he's got a bad plus/minus. But one has to take into account the team the rookie is playing for. As for last night, two of those minuses were when he had the green light as we were behind late in the game. And I don't count minuses for being on the ice when giving up an empty netter. That's just a dumb league rule. If you ain't counting plus/minus on the PP/PK, why are you doing it for the goalie pulled situation? They're both extra-man situations. Wake up NHL, No it’s not One is 6 on 5, the other is still 6 on 6 |
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Post by Skilly on Oct 16, 2024 11:21:06 GMT -5
Me thinks the PIT scouting report has them talking to Hutson
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Post by seventeen on Oct 16, 2024 11:33:37 GMT -5
As time has gone along, I've never been a fan of trophy winning or the chase for some record. It always detracts from the real goal, which is winning the Cup. I don't care if Hutson wins the Calder or not. I want him to have a good rookie year and improve. If he does that, he may win the Calder, or not. The chase for a trophy or record often changes a player's behaviour, to one that is sometimes more selfish or just not team oriented. Just think how the chase for 70 goals helped Matthews and the Leafs last year. Another first round exit and a good possibility they were less defensively minded than they should have been in order to help Matthews reach 70.
I hope he wins the Calder, but I don't like the discussion and vibe around it.
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Post by seventeen on Oct 16, 2024 11:34:38 GMT -5
Me thinks the PIT scouting report has them talking to Hutson He adapts and in a Darwinian world, that's how you survive. |
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Post by seventeen on Oct 16, 2024 11:38:46 GMT -5
Well, Hutson was a minus 4 on Monday. That will need to improve before he's considered special. For me at least. Cheers. Not to discredit your statement, but +/- can be a flawed measure. Just ask all the advanced stats nerds. (I'm not one because I use it occasionally). I analyzed each of his minuses last night and only one was where you could plainly point the finger at him. Like many goals against, it usually involves more than one mistake and that was certainly the case last night. Still, on 2 of those other minuses, he was doing what he was supposed to do. On the 4th, he took a good shot and had the bad luck for it to be blocked and go right to Malkin who scored on an empty net. Once again, it supports my assertion that no personal stats be attached to any empty net goal. |
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Post by habsorbed on Oct 16, 2024 11:42:51 GMT -5
I agree he ain't likely to win if he's got a bad plus/minus. But one has to take into account the team the rookie is playing for. As for last night, two of those minuses were when he had the green light as we were behind late in the game. And I don't count minuses for being on the ice when giving up an empty netter. That's just a dumb league rule. If you ain't counting plus/minus on the PP/PK, why are you doing it for the goalie pulled situation? They're both extra-man situations. Wake up NHL, No it’s not One is 6 on 5, the other is still 6 on 6 Sorry, i should have said extra-skater situations! |
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Post by Skilly on Oct 16, 2024 12:12:26 GMT -5
No it’s not One is 6 on 5, the other is still 6 on 6 Sorry, i should have said extra-skater situations! If a team makes the decision to pull the goalie and make scoring a goal easier for the other team, then they absolutely deserve a minus I get your point and rationale though |
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Post by habsorbed on Oct 16, 2024 12:52:27 GMT -5
Sorry, i should have said extra-skater situations! If a team makes the decision to pull the goalie and make scoring a goal easier for the other team, then they absolutely deserve a minus I get your point and rationale though No problem with it being on the team/coach but shouldn't be on the player. The best goals for/against with goalie pulled last year was Dallas who scoreed 7 and gave up 7 on their empty net - so they were even. After that every other team gave up more empty netters than scored and often by a large margin. NJ having scored 7 and giving up 27. So all the NJ offensive players who would be out there for the extra-man situation took serious hits on their plus/minus. FWIW, Mtl scored 5 and gave up 14 for a -9. So Suze and Cole and all the offensive guys who will be on the ice for the final minutes when we're trying to tie it up, will be taking minuses in that situation throughout the season. And that includes Lane. Obviously the converse is true as well. The defensive players put on the ice to protect the lead have a great opportunity to improve their plus/minus. Pitt scored 20 empty netters last year and only gave up 2 when their opponent had pulled their goalie. That's a +18 if you're the great defensive face-off man that is always out there to defend the lead for Pitt. Of course this all begs the question, why do teams pull their goalie? |
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Post by Cranky on Oct 16, 2024 13:01:34 GMT -5
Of course this all begs the question, why do teams pull their goalie? The hope is the possibilty of a tie and one point vs the probability of no points. It makes sense if you think you have the players to tie it up. |
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Post by habsorbed on Oct 16, 2024 13:53:39 GMT -5
Of course this all begs the question, why do teams pull their goalie? The hope is the possibilty of a tie and one point vs the probability of no points. It makes sense if you think you have the players to tie it up. If I'm not mistaken, the Russians never believed in pulling the goalie until they were introduced to it by North American teams. Would be interesting to see the stats of what happens if you just play the last 2 minutes 5 on 5. Presumably the Russians changed their strategy as the stats showed a benefit. But I'm not convinced. |
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Post by Cranky on Oct 16, 2024 15:18:53 GMT -5
The hope is the possibilty of a tie and one point vs the probability of no points. It makes sense if you think you have the players to tie it up. If I'm not mistaken, the Russians never believed in pulling the goalie until they were introduced to it by North American teams. Would be interesting to see the stats of what happens if you just play the last 2 minutes 5 on 5. Presumably the Russians changed their strategy as the stats showed a benefit. But I'm not convinced. We should be structuring like a power play including...wait for it...a point cannon. MSL is turning into the flexibility of an old donkey. How many goals must Guhle score to be part of the power play? He's moulding the PP like all of them are clones of him. I think I'll start crying my pretty eyes out to see Hutson and Guhle on the PP. I can envision Hutson switching sides with Guhle, dragging the defenseman with him and pass it back to Guhle. Hutson does NOT have a good shot from the point. When i see goals from him, they come from at most, about 30 ft away. Cannon shots are more then just going past the goalie. They are hard to handle and create rebounds BESIDES the need to move to the top of the crease to cut down the angle...and open their rear. (sic!) Powder puff shots are easier to catch/smother and goalies dont move out as much from their net. This isn't some Einsteinopoulos observation. We see this in EVERY game. |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Oct 16, 2024 22:25:19 GMT -5
I don't think he will win the Calder unless he gets PP1 time and the goalies stop a few more pucks. +/- are looked at more closely as defenceman. Michkov or Celebrini are my favourites. As for point prediction, I could see low 60's this year and maybe a point per game player moving forward. I don't but liked the odds when I made my bets this year for the Habs: Habs bets $550 to make playoffs at 7-1 pays $3850 $406.73 to get 78+ pts at 1.87 pays $760.59 St. Louis to win Jack Adams $6.45 at 31-1 pays $199.95 Hutson to win Calder $2.50 at 8-1 pays $20 so ya not that much confidence ) Also got the Oilers to beat leafs in finals at $10 at 81-1 for $810 payout. We came into a big chunk of cash selling our house so figured why not let some ride on this season to make things more interesting. Just back from Vegas today. Bet $20 to win $6000. All the Hab’s have to do is win the cup. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Oct 16, 2024 22:43:01 GMT -5
I don't but liked the odds when I made my bets this year for the Habs: Habs bets $550 to make playoffs at 7-1 pays $3850 $406.73 to get 78+ pts at 1.87 pays $760.59 St. Louis to win Jack Adams $6.45 at 31-1 pays $199.95 Hutson to win Calder $2.50 at 8-1 pays $20 so ya not that much confidence ) Also got the Oilers to beat leafs in finals at $10 at 81-1 for $810 payout. We came into a big chunk of cash selling our house so figured why not let some ride on this season to make things more interesting. Just back from Vegas today. Bet $20 to win $6000. All the Hab’s have to do is win the cup. The power of positive thinking... 300 to 1... not bad |
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Post by drkcloud on Oct 17, 2024 0:48:43 GMT -5
The Toronto sports media will NEVER allow a player from Montreal to win the Calder.
Every discussion from those guys seems to stop and end with Michkov or Celebrini. He'd have to have a Makar level breakout or more
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Post by seventeen on Oct 17, 2024 10:37:29 GMT -5
I'm not sure about the assist, but Michkov's 2 goals were PP goals, so he's dangerous when he has space.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Oct 17, 2024 17:13:49 GMT -5
The Toronto sports media will NEVER allow a player from Montreal to win the Calder. Every discussion from those guys seems to stop and end with Michkov or Celebrini. He'd have to have a Makar level breakout or more Michkov Reinbacher hmmmmmmmm, give me 30 nanoseconds to decide. I’ll go against popular opinion and choose Hutson got the Calder. He has the talent and is getting better. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Oct 19, 2024 9:25:00 GMT -5
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Post by jkr on Oct 19, 2024 10:15:11 GMT -5
The Toronto sports media will NEVER allow a player from Montreal to win the Calder. Every discussion from those guys seems to stop and end with Michkov or Celebrini. He'd have to have a Makar level breakout or more They're still sour about 26 year old Bunting losing to Seider.😀 |
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Post by seventeen on Oct 19, 2024 14:21:23 GMT -5
The Toronto sports media will NEVER allow a player from Montreal to win the Calder. Every discussion from those guys seems to stop and end with Michkov or Celebrini. He'd have to have a Makar level breakout or more They're still sour about 26 year old Bunting losing to Seider.😀 The pundits all look at Hutson's juking and passing and applaud it, but his superpower is in his brain. He is constantly taking in information and adapting. This suggests that as the season goes along, he will get better and better as he adjusts to the way different teams approach playing the Habs. Also, as the season progresses, his teammates will adjust to how to position themselves when he has the puck. I don't think 60 points is beyond him. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Oct 19, 2024 15:26:15 GMT -5
They're still sour about 26 year old Bunting losing to Seider.😀 The pundits all look at Hutson's juking and passing and applaud it, but his superpower is in his brain. He is constantly taking in information and adapting. This suggests that as the season goes along, he will get better and better as he adjusts to the way different teams approach playing the Habs. Also, as the season progresses, his teammates will adjust to how to position themselves when he has the puck. I don't think 60 points is beyond him. Actually, I think it's the other way around, Lane will adjust to his teammates, his IQ is so high he will adapt to them, he'll understand their behaviors and traits and put the puck where they will go instead of where he thinks they will go |
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The only if is if he gets injured. 
Although the drama unfoldng with SKA is a little much. 
I see DemiGod finally got some TOI today and got a goal in the SKA win. 
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/6F6VF25GCFF2HFJCOITRJSGNPE.jpg)
