It's official, Sergei better prospect than Andrei

[skunk]

Sergei, as a 20 year old has 22 points in 22 AHL games this season, and another 14 in 22 NHL games. Andrei, at the same age had I think, 32 points in 47 AHL games and 3 points in 12 NHL games. Overall, thus far, Sergei 36 points in 44 combined games, Andrei had 35 points in 59 combined. Plus most observers would concur that Sergei is a better all round player, and the tougher of the two. Personality wise, he seems to have an edge as well, having assimilated rather smoothly into North American culture, while Andrei has struggled.

Who would have thought that the 200th pick of the 2003 draft would turn out better than the 10th pick of the 2003 draft? It could lead to some problems down the road, in terms of Andrei's ego, and the fact that the two brothers could end up competing for the same position on the team.

[Doc Holliday]

Stats aside, just looking at them both at the NHL level, should be enough to convince anyone that Sergei will be a better NHLer than Andrei. While I won't make any prediction, I haven't been this excited about a prospect in a long long time.

[CrocRob]

I'm not quite as convinced as you two, but I think they're sufficiently different players on different learning paths that directly comparing them would be a mistake.

I think Sergei will be a better two-way player, but Andrei has far, FAR more natural offensive talent than Sergei. Sergei is what I would call a "smarter" player, in that he knows positional play better.

[habmeister]

he may be in the future, but he is not officially a better prospect than andrei right now.

they are different players in a lot of ways, andrei more of the goal scorer, stronger and tougher on the puck, sergei more the playmaker, slicker skater, but doesn't have the extra gear yet that andrei has.

i would say that between the ears sergei is way ahead of andrei, and he will probably turn into a better player than his bro. he also had a pretty good situation in london and coming over and playing junior in canada, if andrei did that who knows, maybe he'd be popping 35 goals this year.

at the same age sergei is better than andrei, but lets see over the next couple of seasons.

one thing for sure, they are both very good prospects and i'm glad we have them.

for the record, i think sergei will be a better player for us in the future, but right now its andrei.

[blny]

I think a big part of it has to do with Sergei coming to play junior hockey in Canada. Andrei had to adjust to a new lifestyle while playing against men.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Two very different brothers that play very different styles.
I have two sons like that.
Love 'em both.
Sergi and Andri play well together. Keep them both.

[clear observer]

Habs are very, very, VERY fortunate to have them both!

[habmeister]

admin said:

Habs are very, very, VERY fortunate to have them both!

you say fortunate, i say scouting... ;D

[Patty Roy]

redscull said:

I'm not quite as convinced as you two, but I think they're sufficiently different players on different learning paths that directly comparing them would be a mistake.

I think Sergei will be a better two-way player, but Andrei has far, FAR more natural offensive talent than Sergei. Sergei is what I would call a "smarter" player, in that he knows positional play better.

I agree with this post. Sergei is ahead of Andrei at the same age, no doubt about that, but i'm not convinced that he is a better prospect. Andrei has a pretty elite skill set.

[skunk]

I don't think that you can say it is "good scouting" when the player taken at the end of the seventh round turns out better than a player taken in the top 10. Just outhouse luck. Andrei Kostitsyn was definitely not the best player taken where he was, not even close. I think there are at least 20 players drafted after him that are as good or better. The second round pick that year, Cory Urquhart has been a total washout. He is struggling in the ECHL and he was drafted with Patrice Bergeron still available.

As for Sergei, getting a good player at around #200 overall is always pure luck. Remember the Hab scouts thought that Juraj Mikus taken in the fourth round, was a better prospect. Mikus wasn't even offered a contract. They drafted several other players before S. Kostitsyn in 2005, including Mikus and Mathieu Aubin.

[habmeister]

skunk said:

I don't think that you can say it is "good scouting" when the player taken at the end of the seventh round turns out better than a player taken in the top 10. Just outhouse luck. Andrei Kostitsyn was definitely not the best player taken where he was, not even close. I think there are at least 20 players drafted after him that are as good or better. The second round pick that year, Cory Urquhart has been a total washout. He is struggling in the ECHL and he was drafted with Patrice Bergeron still available.

As for Sergei, getting a good player at around #200 overall is always pure luck. Remember the Hab scouts thought that Juraj Mikus taken in the fourth round, was a better prospect. Mikus wasn't even offered a contract. They drafted several other players before S. Kostitsyn in 2005, including Mikus and Mathieu Aubin.

it isn't pure luck, they took the best player that they had rated at that time. that isn't luck, as its based on seeing the player play.

you can say that they got a player that should have went in the 1st round in the 7th and they were lucky that way, but to say that any draft pick panning out is pure luck is...

ask the red wings if they were lucky to find zetterberg and datsyuk so late in the draft, i heard that zetterberg was about 140lbs when they took him, that is why he went late, you can't deny his talent. as i will tell you that sergei had a ton of talent as well at that age, but the size is what scares teams away. thankfully timmins took him anyway.

[Skilly]

Projecting how players will develop is hit and miss at best.... One of these Kostitsyn's could turn into the next Ryder. Two or three good seasons stats-wise, and then one bad season and wanting to unload him.

Personally, I think Andrei is better now ... and I think he may be better still 2 years from now because the Habs are not putting Sergei in a position to succeed. Bouncing around on lines, on with pluggers, ...... get a speedy center and put him with Higgins and we will not want to part with the Boobs for years and years

[CrocRob]

I get the impression that Sergei will be spending most of his time with Koivu and Higgins from here on out, lest we acquire another RW.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

skilly said:

Projecting how players will develop is hit and miss at best.... One of these Kostitsyn's could turn into the next Ryder. Two or three good seasons stats-wise, and then one bad season and wanting to unload him.

Personally, I think Andrei is better now ... and I think he may be better still 2 years from now because the Habs are not putting Sergei in a position to succeed. Bouncing around on lines, on with pluggers, ...... get a speedy center and put him with Higgins and we will not want to part with the Boobs for years and years

I don't know, Skilly. Being Sergei's first year in the league I don't think bouncing around from line to line will hurt him all that much. He, like his brother, represent a youthful core that will eventually be the "new guard."

I think the same can be said of Latendresse as well. He brings an element to every line he plays with, which is why I'm kind of confused as to why he's not being tested on the top line.

Break for a second ... Kirk Muller is currently talking via phone on K-Rock 105.7. They have him on the air to talk about the Limestone Classic 3-on-3 tournament that is going on here this weekend. Here's what he had to say about the team and last night's game:

Announcer (Leafs fan): "So, you squeaked one out last night, eh?"

Kirk: (Chuckles) "well, it just proves there are no guarantees in today's NHL. You can't let up. (The team) is still in a learning phase ... (later on) a very tough, busy time of year in Montreal ... (later still) ... if you can't handle the pressure in Montreal then you shouldn't be here"

Back to the kids: If what CH and BC are saying is true in that the Higgins/Koivu tandem is getting marked every time they're on the ice, then finding Koivu wingers who will go to the net every time becomes more imperative.

And I think Carbonneau has learned enough as a head coach that he'd know how to approach Higgins with a reassignment to the 3rd line. Higgins/Lapierre/Ryder seemed to gel very nicely only a few games ago. That gives us:

Latendresse/Koivu/S. Kostitsyn
A. Kostitsyn/Plekanec/Kovalev
Higgins/Lapierre/Ryder
Kostopoulos/Smolinsky/Dandenault

What do we have to lose?

Cheers.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

skilly said:

Projecting how players will develop is hit and miss at best.... One of these Kostitsyn's could turn into the next Ryder. Two or three good seasons stats-wise, and then one bad season and wanting to unload him.

Personally, I think Andrei is better now ... and I think he may be better still 2 years from now because the Habs are not putting Sergei in a position to succeed. Bouncing around on lines, on with pluggers, ...... get a speedy center and put him with Higgins and we will not want to part with the Boobs for years and years

How many times have we seen a player come up from Hamilton and play great for the first three games, skating, hitting and being agressive.
It seems that after the initial start, they learn caution from the veterans and lose the drive that they started with.
Sergi attacks, tries to carry the puck and make plays. Our veterans skate up to the defender and if it looks like they will be checked they either dump it in, make a pass or hit the brakes.
The Rocket and Flower attacked the defender and skated around them, through them or unleashed a shot into the twine.
Stop coaching Sergei and let him do his thing!

[habmeister]

projecting how players will develop is simply looking at their skills, seeing if they are improving and learning, and then combining that with their work ethic and hockey smarts. it isn't hit and miss, it's what scouting is all about.

some have a lot of different skills, and learn how to use them in the pro game, some have a lot of great skill but don't learn because they lack smarts/intelligence, and work ethic. some have only a couple great skills and don't have anything else, if that skill becomes neutralized they aren't effective.

with sergei i see the following:

great vision
great skating laterally and good north south
great passing which comes from his vision
very responsible in his own end
not afraid to initiate or take contact
weaker on the puck, will improve as he grows/ages
a real gamer/intensity/hard worker
gritty
good stickhandling/puck on a string


with andrei i see the following:

good vision
excellent skating and inside out
work ethic is not always there
wants to score and has that scorers mentality
great wrist shot
could work on defensive coverage
very good passing
questionable whether he'll step up in crunch time
has an edge to his game/borderline dirty (which i like)
not afraid to take a hit, sometimes has his head down too much with puck

[habmeister]

disgruntled70shab said:

Latendresse/Koivu/S. Kostitsyn
A. Kostitsyn/Plekanec/Kovalev
Higgins/Lapierre/Ryder
Kostopoulos/Smolinsky/Dandenault

i said to switch the wingers from the 3rd line to the 1st line last week, good call, and it looks like that is what carbo is doing. lappy/ryder/higgins worked well together, now koivu has another winger with great vision, and lats has proven to me that he knows where to go to clean up the garbage. the only change i would make is to put streit on the 4th line or begin, dandy is imo the 8th defenceman (counting o'byrne) and possibly our least effective forward, no matter how hard he works and skates.

chips should be back up soon as we can clear some roster space. i look for dandy to get dealt for a late draft pick or goon, and hopefully brisebois to retire.

[montreal]

I read or heard that the Habs at the '05 draft, all of their picks they got were in their top 70 draft list. I don't know where each player was ranked but they got Kostitsyn at 200th but must have had him ranked among the top 70 prospects.

[CrocRob]

Yes I remember reading that Timmins expected him to be a 2nd round pick, but he kept dropping and they always had higher players on their lists.

[habmeister]

montreal said:

I read or heard that the Habs at the '05 draft, all of their picks they got were in their top 70 draft list. I don't know where each player was ranked but they got Kostitsyn at 200th but must have had him ranked among the top 70 prospects.

entirely possible, after the first round or two it's wide open as to what one scouting staff might think of a player as opposed to another.

i'm just glad the kid was still around, what a beauty, he's going to catch his bro in hits by seasons end! ok not quite, but man the kid likes to take the body.

[PTH]

redscull said:

Yes I remember reading that Timmins expected him to be a 2nd round pick, but he kept dropping and they always had higher players on their lists.

Let's keep in mind that no team has a ranking of every single player out there - teams rank something like 50-100 guys they like and have done a bit of checking on, so a team saying they got guys in their top 70 really doesn't mean much (though it's a terrific sound bite).

[MC Habber]

Wow, I think this is jumping the gun, by a lot. I will say that I think both players have very high ceilings, and that predicting who will be better is not easy at this point, but...

First of all, AHL stats mean very little. 22 points in 22 games in the AHL does not indicate that Sergei will be successful in the NHL. So we're left with his NHL stats. Currently:
GP G A +/- Player
33 6 10 1 S. Kostitsyn, 20 years old
34 6 7 3 Marcel Hossa at 21 years old (2002-03, on a much lower scoring edition of the Habs)
I'll add that S. Kosty has about a hit/game. Very impressive numbers for a 20 year old, but not enough to say that he'll even come close to his brother, who is looking like he shcould be at least a 40 goals/80 points player.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying Sergei will be another Marcel Hossa, just that it's too early to predict. I like Sergei's play more than Hossa's, but...

[habmeister]

if you want to compare them do it at the same age, sergei's upside is unknown because he has skills that make him elite and a heart that is unquestionable. i'd say that in 2-3 years he'll be a more complete player than andrei, by complete i mean in both ends.

[MC Habber]

habmeister said:

i'd say that in 2-3 years he'll be a more complete player than andrei, by complete i mean in both ends.

It's quite possible. And if he pushes Andrei to be the best he can be, so much the better.

[habmeister]

machabby said:

habmeister said:

i'd say that in 2-3 years he'll be a more complete player than andrei, by complete i mean in both ends.

It's quite possible. And if he pushes Andrei to be the best he can be, so much the better.

without a doubt, andrei could be that 40 goal scorer as you say and sergei could be the 50+ assist guy that can kill penalties and run the pp, forget about streit, sergei could become the ultimate utility player.

i'm beginning to wonder about shuffling andrei onto saku's line with sergei (not a beginning, been asking for this for a month) as kovy and andrei both want to score and if we can make andrei the shooter on saku's line with his little bro's vision we could have our two complete lines.

[seventeen]

There is chemistry between the bro's. Not quite as good as the Sedin's, but not bad. It might even get Koivu going.

[MC Habber]

I've been (quietly) on that bandwagon for a while, too. I think it's time.