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Post by The New Guy on Mar 21, 2002 12:51:23 GMT -5
Here they are, in case anyone is wondering:
What it will take to capture 8th spot in the East for Les Gars:
Atlanta Is Eliminated
Florida -> 2
Tampa -> 8
Pittsburgh -> 8
Washington -> 8.5
New York Rangers -> 9
Buffalo -> 11
Let's hope they start playing like they played last night. The post season is getting closer folks...
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Post by Johnny Verdun on Mar 21, 2002 15:21:27 GMT -5
are these the standard "magic numbers" in the sense that they represent the total of Mtl wins and Team X losses to eliminate Team X? Or are the numbers for points?
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Post by Raven on Mar 21, 2002 15:39:32 GMT -5
I didn't quite get that either but my best guess would be that the numbers represent how many points Montreal needs to mathematically eliminate a particular team and remain the playoffs assuming said team wins all their games. I think, hehe.
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 21, 2002 15:50:51 GMT -5
They are indeed, the number of wins Montreal needs or losses the other team needs to secure our playoff spot. Essentially, it's how many points a team could possibly have at the end of the season, less the number of points Montreal has now, divided by two. Thus if we win the number drops one, and if they lose, the number drops one.
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 21, 2002 17:25:30 GMT -5
Holy crap, TB could leapfrog over NYR ,WSH and Pitt...with this in mind, they could be playing tomorrow's game like it was a game 7 of the playoffs for them...all year, what guys like Richards have said is they wanted to play some meaningful games in March and April, if they win tomorrow, they could be somewhat close.Just one more reason why TB scares the hell out of me tomorrow.
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 21, 2002 22:23:11 GMT -5
After tonight's games, the magic numbers are:
Atlanta Is Eliminated
Florida -> 1
Tampa -> 8
Pittsburgh -> 8
Washington -> 8.5
New York Rangers -> 9
Buffalo -> 10
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 22, 2002 22:25:32 GMT -5
Updated once again...
Florida -> 0.5
Tampa -> 7
Pittsburgh -> 7.5
New York Rangers -> 7.5
Washington -> 8
Buffalo -> 9.5
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 22, 2002 22:27:33 GMT -5
TNG, maybe it's time you change your name..your a veteran now ;D
Keep these updates coming every day! please!
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Post by habmeister on Mar 23, 2002 12:56:10 GMT -5
Hey new guy. How does it work with ties? it looks like you're using the baseball system of Games Behind Leader. But if there is a tie, or an overtime loss how do they factor in?
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TKM
Rookie
Posts: 2
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Post by TKM on Mar 23, 2002 15:59:42 GMT -5
If the Habs the get 20 points none of the teams behind can catch them.
So wouldn't it be less confusing to say that magic number for clinching a spot is 20?
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 23, 2002 17:29:41 GMT -5
If the Habs the get 20 points none of the teams behind can catch them. So wouldn't it be less confusing to say that magic number for clinching a spot is 20? Welcome TKM...we have 10 or 11 games remaining? if it's 10...you are bang on...but at the same time, you would have to remove points when other teams in the hunt lose. |
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 23, 2002 21:52:59 GMT -5
The system is simple. Each team has a finite number of points it ca nget in a season. You calculate that, devise the number of points in the difference between that number and the number of points Montreal has, and then divide it by two.
In the case of a tie, if it's a tie for Montreal, then it's a half a win and .5 points away from all the magic numbers, since Montreal is one point closer to what their max points is. If it's a tie for another team, then it's a half a loss for them (since it's one point less from their max total) and thus a .5 decrease for them...
I don't use the total points system because this is more... traditional. You could use points difference, but if you want to find out how close a team is at a glance, this is it.
Later
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 23, 2002 22:17:16 GMT -5
Well, TNG, time for the updated magic number.
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Post by Cranky on Mar 23, 2002 22:20:16 GMT -5
Forget the magic numbers, after that game, I need the magic mushrooms.
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 23, 2002 22:48:29 GMT -5
Hey - its obvious that we should not be trying to outshoot the opposition....
Atlanta is Eliminated
Florida is Eliminated
Tampa -> 7
Pittsburgh -> 7
New York Rangers -> 7.5
Washington -> 8
Buffalo -> 8.5
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 24, 2002 14:05:12 GMT -5
So, in 3 days, Buffalo has gone from 11 to 8.5? and that total can go down even more tonight as they meet the Sens...
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 24, 2002 21:34:02 GMT -5
Today's numbers... damnable Buffalo had to win, and TBay went to OT. Good news is that Washington went down hard....
Atlanta is Eliminated
Florida is Eliminated
Tampa -> 6.5
Pittsburgh -> 7
Washington -> 7
New York Rangers -> 7.5
Buffalo -> 8.5
Buffalo emerging as the real threat, although Washinton could finish the season really strong if their talent started playing that way... Rangers and the the Pens are well within striking distance....
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 25, 2002 15:37:28 GMT -5
I don't get this...isn't Washington like 2 points behind us and Pitt about 10 behind us? or maybe somewhere closer to 6? how come both are at 7? does Pitt have games in hand?
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Post by Thanatos on Mar 25, 2002 16:09:08 GMT -5
I don't get this...isn't Washington like 2 points behind us and Pitt about 10 behind us? or maybe somewhere closer to 6? how come both are at 7? does Pitt have games in hand? According to Faceoff.com, Pittsburgh(67 points), Buffalo(70 points) and Montreal(73 points) have each played 72 games. Washington(71 points) and NYR(70 points) have played 73 games. Now, as to what impact(if any) that has to his above rating system, I'll leave it to him to describe. ;D |
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 25, 2002 16:58:21 GMT -5
You're right Marc, tis strange... me think's I've made a typo that has persisted. Damn things... anyways the PROPER numbers (I just recalculated them)
Washington - 8.5
Buffalo - 8.5
New York Rangers - 7.5
Tampa Bay - 7.5
Pittsburgh - 7
So tis Washington and Buffalo as the real threats. Rangers have the same magic number as TBay... go Rucinsky!!!
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 25, 2002 17:58:52 GMT -5
Ah, makes much more sense ;D
I would love seeing TBay overtake the Rangers.
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 26, 2002 7:17:44 GMT -5
Rangers going fast dwon that slippery slope. I've said it before... go Rucinski!!!
Washington - 8.5
Buffalo - 8.5
Tampa Bay - 7.5
Pittsburgh - 7
New York Rangers - 6.5
Florida - Eliminated
Atlanta - Eliminated
A win tonight in Florida would really give us a boost - a four point lead on Washinton, and would put us within smelling distance of New Jersey. Let's go boys....
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Post by HFTO on Mar 26, 2002 9:05:03 GMT -5
The only magic we need is to win three games this week at home. No excuses we shold win these games.Only Washington could possibly be in the race if we win the next three.
HFTO
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Post by clear observer on Mar 26, 2002 9:31:12 GMT -5
The only magic we need is to win three games this week at home. No excuses we shold win these games.Only Washington could possibly be in the race if we win the next three. HFTO Absolutely Phil. Was suggesting to Rick the other day over lunch that the boys need a minimum of 6 wins out of the last 10 to be safely out of the woods in my estimation. It's definitely crunch time! CO |
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Post by The New Guy on Mar 26, 2002 12:04:17 GMT -5
I don't feel that it's quite that dire yet CO. I mean think about it... we've played roughly .500 hockey all season (we had a bad stint in December, a good stint at the start of the season - but roughly). We've been that consistently. If we play .500 from here on out we wind up with 83 points.
To compare:
Washington will have to play .667 hockey to catch us
New York will have to play .813 hockey to catch us
Buffalo will have to play .650 hockey to catch us
Pittsburgh will have to play .800 hockey to beat us
Tampa will have to play .864 hockey to catch us
In other words, only Buffalo and Washington are anything remotely near threatening. New York, Pittsburgh and Tampa are virtually out of contention if we win five games.
In March Buffalo has played a .583 level, the Caps have played ar a .546 level and Montreal has played at (you guessed it) a perfect .500 (4 wins, 4 losses, 4 ties). Say what you want about their lack of effort and what not, they're damn conistent.
I'd say, right now, that unless something happens that the team spontainously explodes or Washington and Buffalo become super teams overnight, the playoffs are well within out grasp.
Remember, .500 hockey is all we need (-:
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Post by jerry_dog on Mar 26, 2002 12:18:08 GMT -5
TNG, although the math is bang on, I'm with CO that at least 6 wins is what we want to not be going into a possible do or die with Buffalo the last game of the regular season. Also, as an aside, wouldn't it be nice to go in on an upswing rather than trying to get up vs. Philly, Boston or TO. I can't wait!
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Post by Lupien on Mar 26, 2002 14:06:44 GMT -5
I don't feel that it's quite that dire yet CO. I mean think about it... we've played roughly .500 hockey all season (we had a bad stint in December, a good stint at the start of the season - but roughly). We've been that consistently. If we play .500 from here on out we wind up with 83 points. To compare: Washington will have to play .667 hockey to catch us New York will have to play .813 hockey to catch us Buffalo will have to play .650 hockey to catch us Pittsburgh will have to play .800 hockey to beat us Tampa will have to play .864 hockey to catch us In other words, only Buffalo and Washington are anything remotely near threatening. New York, Pittsburgh and Tampa are virtually out of contention if we win five games. <br> In March Buffalo has played a .583 level, the Caps have played ar a .546 level and Montreal has played at (you guessed it) a perfect .500 (4 wins, 4 losses, 4 ties). Say what you want about their lack of effort and what not, they're damn conistent. <br> I'd say, right now, that unless something happens that the team spontainously explodes or Washington and Buffalo become super teams overnight, the playoffs are well within out grasp. Remember, .500 hockey is all we need (-: <br> Nice work there TNG. Although you MAY be right in that all we MAY end up needing is .500 hockey, I still maintain that .600 will (should) put us safely in the show. Either way, it's gonna be close. CO |
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 26, 2002 16:52:02 GMT -5
6 wins out of 10 should do it...
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