A Decade of First Round Picks - Boom or Bust?

[NWTHabsFan]

Earlier this week I surfed across a press release showing all the invitees to the ECHL training camps. Low and behold, there was the name of an ex-Hab first round pick. It seems that Brent Bilodeau is trying out for yet another season with the Johnstown Chiefs of the ECHL. So, got me thinking as to “Where are they now?” and “What have they done for us lately?”. In response, I looked back to our first round picks over a 10 year period (1989-1998 inclusive) to analyze just how futile our drafting record was over that period. Here is what I came up with, but I warn you, the results are a bit depressing.

First, the players:

1989 Lindsay Vallis - 13th overall – 1 career game with Habs/ NHL
1990 Turner Stevenson – 12th overall – 385 games with Habs, 613 in NHL
1991 Brent Bilodeau – 17th overall – 0 games with Habs/NHL
1992 David Wilkie – 20th overall – 91 games with Habs, 167 in NHL
1993 Saku Koivu – 21st overall – 497 games with Habs/NHL
1994 Brad Brown – 18th overall – 13 games with the Habs, 330 in NHL
1995 Terry Ryan – 8th overall – 8 games with Habs/NHL
1996 Matt Higgins – 18th overall – 57 games with Habs/NHL
1997 Jason Ward – 11th overall – 105 games with Habs/NHL
1998 Eric Chouinard – 16th overall – 13 games with Habs, 89 in NHL

This translates into a total of 1170 games for the Habs over the 10 picks, and 1867 NHL games with those same 10 first rounders. That is an average of 117 Habs games per first round pick, and 187 NHL games per first round pick. If we assume that an average player can muster up a 70 game season taking into account some games lost to injury, etc., then our 10 picks averaged a 1.67 year Habs career and a 2.67 year NHL career purely in terms of games played.

Now, some of those guys are still playing and will add to those totals, but they are astonishingly low for 10 first round picks, the most recent of whom was drafted 6 years ago and should by all accounts be well established in the NHL by now.

As you notice, no provisions were taken to pad the stats by taking out a blue-chip pick, like Saku, who clearly brings up the average. Ironically, Saku was the lowest actual pick of the bunch (at the 21st pick), but who is clearly the cream of this crop by a huge margin. So, how bad are the numbers if we take Saku out…les voila: an average of only 75 Habs games per pick (approx just one NHL season) and 152 NHL games per pick (approx just over two NHL seasons). If we further take out Turner Stevenson who has enjoyed a long career, the stats show that for 8 first round picks, we average only 36 Habs games (or about 0.5 season) and only 95 NHL games (or 1.33 NHL seasons).

Two things jump out. Firstly, that was some pretty awful drafting that did not bring much return to the Habs over an entire decade (and ultimately 6 years beyond). Secondly, even taking into consideration some bad scouting/drafting at times, it is clear that being picked in the first round is still not an absolute guarantee of long-term Habs or NHL success. Thankfully, our scouting and drafting has improved a lot lately, but it is still a crap shoot for the most part.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Interesting exercise NWT. Hmmm, an average of 187 NHL games per first rounder from your sample. I wonder what the over all average is for all NHL first rounders in that sample period?

1989 - 415 NHL games (Vallis - 1)
1990 - 597 NHL games (Stevenson - 613)
1991 - 553 NHL games (Bilodeau - 0)
1992 - 368 NHL games (Wilkie - 167)
1993 - 477 NHL games (Koivu - 497)
1994 - 326 NHL games (Brown - 330)
1995 - 342 NHL games (Ryan - 8)
1996 - 225 NHL games (Higgins - 57)
1997 - 206 NHL games (Ward - 105)
1998 - 235 NHL games (Chouinard - 89)

And to round out the pre-André Savard years (ignoring the rule-of-thumb 5 year incubation period):

1999 - 129 NHL games (no selection)
2000 - 87 NHL games (Hainsey - 32; Hossa - 59)

And the New Régime:

2001 - 47 NHL games (Komisarek - 67; Perezhogin - 0)
2002 - 25 NHL games (Higgins - 2)
2003 - 10 NHL games (Kostitsyn - 0)

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Hmmm, you've got me going here. Let's compare the number of games played in the Habs jersey between Montreal's first round picks, and other teams' first round picks from the same draft year who were later acquired by Montreal. We'll use the over all average number of NHL games per first rounder from the previous post as a yardstick.

1989 - 415 NHL games; Thornton - 222 games, Haller - 149 games (Vallis - 1)
1990 - 597 NHL games; *Dykhuis - 288 games, (Stevenson - 385)
1991 - 553 NHL games; Poulin - 277 games, Kovalev - 12 games, Rucinsky - 432 games, (Bilodeau - 0)
1992 - 368 NHL games; (Wilkie - 91 games)
1993 - 477 NHL games; *Sundstrom - 99 games, Thibault - 158 games, (*Koivu - 497)
1994 - 326 NHL games; *Bonk - 0 games, Fichaud - 2 games, (Brown - 13)
1995 - 342 NHL games; Kilger - 204 games, (Ryan - 8)
1996 - 225 NHL games; Zubrus - 139 games, Descoteaux - 5 games, (Higgins - 57)
1997 - 206 NHL games; Damphousse - 0 games, (*Ward - 105)
1998 - 235 NHL games; (Chouinard - 13)

*currently on Habs roster

[NWTHabsFan]

M. said:

Interesting exercise NWT. Hmmm, an average of 187 NHL games per first rounder from your sample. I wonder what the over all average is for all NHL first rounders in that sample period?

1989 - 415 NHL games (Vallis - 1)
1990 - 597 NHL games (Stevenson - 613)
1991 - 553 NHL games (Bilodeau - 0)
1992 - 368 NHL games (Wilkie - 167)
1993 - 477 NHL games (Koivu - 497)
1994 - 326 NHL games (Brown - 330)
1995 - 342 NHL games (Ryan - 8)
1996 - 225 NHL games (Higgins - 57)
1997 - 206 NHL games (Ward - 105)
1998 - 235 NHL games (Chouinard - 89)

Your follow up analysis does counter the argument that our picks were just part of a bad overall draft. Only 3 of the 10 picks meet or exceed the average first rounder production in terms of games played (Stevenson, Koivu and Brown).

What's even more interesting is this:

The total of the average of all other first rounders chosen over those ten years turns out to be 3744 NHL games compared to the Habs's total of 1867 NHL games with our 10 first round picks.

That translates into a very poor 50% pace of what the average was for the rest of the players chosen in the same first rounds. That means that the Habs had to use up other resources (draft picks, players, money) to make up the 1877 NHL games gap.

That's huge!!

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

NHL games played by Habs first rounders and subsequent rounders over the sample period, Average number of NHL games by all first rounders again used as a yardstick.

1989 - 415 NHL games; (Vallis - 1), Brisebois 791, Larouche 26, Sévigny 78, Racicot 67, Ferguson 27, Lebeau 15,
1990 - 597 NHL games; (Stevenson - 613), Dionee 223, DiPietro 192, Conroy 609
1991 - 553 NHL games; (Bilodeau - 0), Campbell 284, Darby 196, Petrov 382, Savage 608
1992 - 368 NHL games; (Wilkie - 91 games), Bure 621, Rivet 517, Lamothe 4
1993 - 477 NHL games; (Koivu - 497), Fitzpatrick 154, Bordeleau 251, Tucker 609
1994 - 326 NHL games; (Brown - 13), Théodore 315, Murray 242, Kiprusoff 51, Vokoun 278
1995 - 342 NHL games; (Ryan - 8), Guren 36, Deslisle 1, Robidas 257, Houde 30
1996 - 225 NHL games; (Higgins - 57), Garon 43, Asham 278, Clark 158
1997 - 206 NHL games; (Ward - 105)
1998 - 235 NHL games; (Chouinard - 13), Ribeiro 197, Beauchemin 1, Bashkirov 30, Dwyer 108, Markov 267, Ryder 81

1999 - 129 NHL games; (no 1st round selection), no-one drafted who has had NHL experience.
2000 - 87 NHL games; (Hainsey - 32; Hossa - 59), Balej 17

2001 - 47 NHL games; (Komisarek - 67; Perezhogin - 0), Plekanec 2, Jarventie 1
2002 - 25 NHL games (Higgins - 2)
2003 - 10 NHL games (Kostitsyn - 0)

[NWTHabsFan]

I knew it was inevitable that the Habs' late round gems during that same time period were unearthed!! It is rather amazing to show that the Habs tended to do much better in the rounds after the first round for the most part.

The 1997 draft is looking like a pretty poor one overall for les boys and the 1999 one is looking more and more like one that will never produce even one NHL game. Thank goodness for the last five drafts, that are looking much better in terms of prospect potential.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

NWTHabsFan said:

Your follow up analysis does counter the argument that our picks were just part of a bad overall draft. Only 3 of the 10 picks meet or exceed the average first rounder production in terms of games played (Stevenson, Koivu and Brown).

What's even more interesting is this:

The total of the average of all other first rounders chosen over those ten years turns out to be 3744 NHL games compared to the Habs's total of 1867 NHL games with our 10 first round picks.

That translates into a very poor 50% pace of what the average was for the rest of the players chosen in the same first rounds. That means that the Habs had to use up other resources (draft picks, players, money) to make up the 1877 NHL games gap.

That's huge!!

Let's see what percentage of 1st rounders selected in the sample period have played fewer than 2 seasons in the NHL (164 games). An arbitrary figure, but IMO a reasonable minimum expectation of a 1st round pick.

1989 - 38% - 8/21 (Vallis - 1)
1990 - 19% - 4/21 (Stevenson - 613)
1991 - 23% - 5/21 (Bilodeau - 0)
1992 - 46% - 11/24 (Wilkie - 167)
1993 - 15% - 4/26 (Koivu - 497)
1994 - 38% - 11/26 (Brown - 330)
1995 - 31% - 8/26 (Ryan -8)
1996 - 50% - 13/26 (Higgins - 57)
1997 - 46% - 12/26 (Ward - 105)
1998 - 33% - 9/27 (Chouinard - 89)

[seventeen]

You guys are great with the numbers. If you look at it more qualitatively, I would consider Vallis, Bilodeau (who I saw once and loved as a 16 year old), Wilkie, Brown, Ryan, Higgins and Chouinard as absolute busts, no matter how many NHL games they played. That's 7 out of 10 with Saku the only unqualifed success, Stevenson is a marginal character player and Ward unproven yet, but likely to fit into the Stevenson mold. You can give each of those latter 2 half a point each, to total 2 successful picks out of 10. Pathetic. Why were those 1st rounders so bad? Did the wrong guy have the say in the early rounds and a much better analyst have the trigger finger in the later rounds? The difference that I can see between our recent picks and the Serge / Reggie picks were that our recent picks seem to have a lot more character, drive and desire. Stevenson has desire as does Ward and Saku's a slam dunk in that category. Of course, Ryan was supposed to have grit, but obviously not character. Sigh...what a wasteland that was....digging the franchise into a deep, cavernous hole.

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

In descending order, a list based on most NHL games played by draftees from the sample period. Longevity is a fair indicator of perceived usefulness, even if the perception may be flawed from time to time. I have also included the player's height and weight. (Goalies have been excepted).

Brisebois 791, 6'2 204
Bure 621, 5'11 179
*Stevenson 613, 6'3 220
Conroy 609, 6'2 200
Tucker 609, 5'10 170
Savage 608, 6'2 192
Rivet 517, 6'2 195
*Koivu 497, 5'10 183
Petrov 382, 5'9 161
*Brown 330, 6'3 218
Campbell 284, 6'2 205
Asham 278, 5'11 209
Markov 267, 5'10 172
Robidas 257, 5'10 180
Bordeleau 251, 5'10 180
Murray 242, 6'2 209
Dionne 223, 6' 194
Ribeiro 197, 6' 176
Darby 196, 6'1 195
DiPietro 192, 5'9 181
*Wilkie 167, 6'3 215
Clark 158, 6' 182
Fitzpatrick 154, 6'1 205
Dwyer 108, 6'3 198
*Ward 105 6'3 195
*Chouinard 89, 6'3 204
Ryder 81, 6'1 190
Sévigny 78, 6' 195
*Higgins 57, 6' 213
Kiprusoff 51, 6' 195
Guren 36, 6'2 209
Bashkirov 30, 6' 215
Houde 30, 5'11 181
Ferguson 27, 5'11 202
Larouche 26, 5'11 180
Lebeau 15, 5'10 187
*Ryan 8, 6'1 207
Beauchemin 1, 6' 214
Deslisle 1, 5'10 180
*Vallis 1, 6'3 205
*Bilodeau 0, 6'4 230

*1st round picks

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One thing to bear in mind is that during the sample period the Habs average first pick was 15th over all out of an average of 24 teams.