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Post by Johnny Verdun on Mar 18, 2002 0:51:19 GMT -5
Someone on another board posted that if the Habs re-sign Berezin they're obliged to send a 2nd round pick (that's right, a SECOND ROUND PICK) to Phoenix according to the terms of the Savage deal. I don't believe it. I said so. Someone else replied that the source of this belief was Al Strachan (no link). Below is my reply. But it's bugging me. Does anyone actually KNOW what the story is here?
"I think it's b#llsh#t. If the Habs were on the hook for a second round pick (a second round pick!) for re-signing Berezin, there'd have been a lot more noise about it. I'm no less doubtful if in fact Strachan wrote it, and perhaps even more so.
That would mean that if the cards had fallen otherwise than they did, the Yotes could've received (directly and indirectly) two third round picks, a fourth round pick and a second round pick for Berezin! The original 3rd from Mtl, a 4th from Mtl when Savage walks, a 3rd from the league as compensation for the loss of the UFA (Savage), and a 2nd from the Habs if they re-signed Berezin. That's not what was reported when the deal was made (or at any time since) and it simply flies in the face of any common sense notion of Berezin's value. I do not believe it. There is no second round pick involved. The Habs might have to throw in something further if they re-sign Berezin but there is no way in hell it's a second round pick. Anybody who thinks so is whacked, as far as I'm concerned. And if it is true, which I highly doubt, Savard is a first class moron. That's another reason not to believe it. Because Savard is not a moron, and only a moron would do something like that.
And furthermore....Berezin is worth only slightly more than a second round pick straight up, at best, so if Savard shipped what was left of Savage's contract, a 3rd, and potentially a 4th (if Savage had walked) in exchange for Sergei Berezin, why would he then agree to send a very valuable second round pick to Phoenix if Berezin is signed long term? It's beyond implausible. It makes absolutely no sense at all to me, a reasonable person according to my doctor and my lawyer. It's a nightmarish fantasy that can only be believed by someone who doesn't think first and check it against reality....
In my opinion, what Strachan (or whoever wrote the nonsense above) did was to fill in "second round pick" where it says "future considerations" in a pathetic and dishonest attempt to slag the trade. Inserting "2nd rounder" for "futures" is like inserting "Lexus" in a slot reserved for "miscellaneous used car parts"...."
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Post by PTH on Mar 18, 2002 1:29:29 GMT -5
Howdy
I don't know the facts any more than you do - teams are anxious to put out press reports talking about players, but aren't always in a rush to let everyone know the details of their deals, especially as pertains to picks and futures, especially conditionnal ones.
I can't see a 2nd rounder going the other way though.
Just Savage and a 3d for Berezin was decent, giving up more would be painful.
Why is it that whatever happened (ie - Savage walks, Berezin signs), Habs always lose out, and never the other way around. Arrg. Looks like a rookie GM mistake to me...
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Post by Bobs_HABit on Mar 18, 2002 9:23:05 GMT -5
Strachan did indeed say that the futures are a 2nd. Now he has been wrong a time or 400 times before  That said, my understanding of the deal was always that the possibility was there for us to lose an extra pick if we resigned Berezin but I don't know if it was a 2nd or not. It was one of the reasons I was leary about the deal as I was always under the impression there was a chance that we could have lost 3 picks depending on what happened. |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Mar 18, 2002 9:38:19 GMT -5
my understanding of the trade is as follows -
savage for berezin
3rd round pick for juneau [who we'd picked up for 'futures' in the summer]
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Post by Yeti on Mar 18, 2002 9:45:04 GMT -5
There were picks involved if Savage couldn't sign with the Coyotes. He did, so that pick is cancelled. We have to give the Coyotes something if we sign Berezin in 2003 to a NEW contract before his UFA status, not next summer as a RFA. I highly doubt it will be a second round pick if we sign him before July 2003. I also think Savard won't resign him, unless he can score 30 again next year.
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Post by GNick on Mar 18, 2002 9:47:43 GMT -5
The Juneau and Berezin deals were totally separte. At the time of the deal Juneau would be a UFA in two weeks. There is no way Andre would trade a third round pick for a UFA in two weeks.
TSN reported the extra second rounder when they first annoucned the deal. The next day they retracted the trade and put future considerations. The issue of how many picks is cloudy. But it doesn't make any sense if we send them another second rounder. Could be a third rounder if we resign Berezin but that should be it. I hope!
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Mar 18, 2002 10:04:21 GMT -5
The Juneau and Berezin deals were totally separte. At the time of the deal Juneau would be a UFA in two weeks. There is no way Andre would trade a third round pick for a UFA in two weeks. but that should be it. I hope! i stand by my hypothesis. i see no degrees of separation. savard acquired juneau from phoenix for 'futures'. those 'futures' were then paid up in full with the 3rd rounder in the savage deal, since andré had managed to sign joé and phoenix was awaiting their payoff. the other scenarios seem to me far too arcane for the talent involved and are likely the machinations of idle reporters' minds. |
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 18, 2002 15:35:53 GMT -5
Someone on another board posted that if the Habs re-sign Berezin they're obliged to send a 2nd round pick (that's right, a SECOND ROUND PICK) to Phoenix according to the terms of the Savage deal. I don't believe it. I said so. Someone else replied that the source of this belief was Al Strachan (no link). Below is my reply. But it's bugging me. Does anyone actually KNOW what the story is here? "I think it's b#llsh#t. If the Habs were on the hook for a second round pick (a second round pick!) for re-signing Berezin, there'd have been a lot more noise about it. I'm no less doubtful if in fact Strachan wrote it, and perhaps even more so. That would mean that if the cards had fallen otherwise than they did, the Yotes could've received (directly and indirectly) two third round picks, a fourth round pick and a second round pick for Berezin! The original 3rd from Mtl, a 4th from Mtl when Savage walks, a 3rd from the league as compensation for the loss of the UFA (Savage), and a 2nd from the Habs if they re-signed Berezin. That's not what was reported when the deal was made (or at any time since) and it simply flies in the face of any common sense notion of Berezin's value. I do not believe it. There is no second round pick involved. The Habs might have to throw in something further if they re-sign Berezin but there is no way in hell it's a second round pick. Anybody who thinks so is whacked, as far as I'm concerned. And if it is true, which I highly doubt, Savard is a first class moron. That's another reason not to believe it. Because Savard is not a moron, and only a moron would do something like that. And furthermore....Berezin is worth only slightly more than a second round pick straight up, at best, so if Savard shipped what was left of Savage's contract, a 3rd, and potentially a 4th (if Savage had walked) in exchange for Sergei Berezin, why would he then agree to send a very valuable second round pick to Phoenix if Berezin is signed long term? It's beyond implausible. It makes absolutely no sense at all to me, a reasonable person according to my doctor and my lawyer. It's a nightmarish fantasy that can only be believed by someone who doesn't think first and check it against reality.... In my opinion, what Strachan (or whoever wrote the nonsense above) did was to fill in "second round pick" where it says "future considerations" in a pathetic and dishonest attempt to slag the trade. Inserting "2nd rounder" for "futures" is like inserting "Lexus" in a slot reserved for "miscellaneous used car parts"...." JV, is this thing keeping you awake at night or what? ;D I agree...it makes no sense at all...Strachan said it, it's obviously wrong. |
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Post by GNick on Mar 18, 2002 19:01:53 GMT -5
i stand by my hypothesis. i see no degrees of separation. savard acquired juneau from phoenix for 'futures'. those 'futures' were then paid up in full with the 3rd rounder in the savage deal, since andré had managed to sign joé and phoenix was awaiting their payoff. the other scenarios seem to me far too arcane for the talent involved and are likely the machinations of idle reporters' minds. Andre would have rocks in his head if he did. A third rounder is a pretty decent pick, Juneau was unrestricted. Savard would be totally throwing away a third rounder. He could sign Juneau the next week for nothing |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Mar 18, 2002 20:45:22 GMT -5
Andre would have rocks in his head if he did. A third rounder is a pretty decent pick, Juneau was unrestricted. Savard would be totally throwing away a third rounder. He could sign Juneau the next week for nothing. andré may have not even a pebble in his head. 3rd round habs pick this year would be roughly 75th overall. from what i've heard this year's crop is not particularly deep. to obtain a proven nhl centre who would counted to provide locker-room leadership and on-ice performance for a low-risk pick sounds rock solid to me. if he could have waited and signed juneau as a ufa without trading 'future considerations' to obtain his services, why didn't he? what necessitated making a trade rather than waiting and signing juneau for 'nothing'? i still stand by my hypothesis. |
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 18, 2002 22:17:55 GMT -5
andré may have not even a pebble in his head. 3rd round habs pick this year would be roughly 75th overall. from what i've heard this year's crop is not particularly deep. to obtain a proven nhl centre who would counted to provide locker-room leadership and on-ice performance for a low-risk pick sounds rock solid to me. if he could have waited and signed juneau as a ufa without trading 'future considerations' to obtain his services, why didn't he? what necessitated making a trade rather than waiting and signing juneau for 'nothing'? i still stand by my hypothesis. Still, look at who André drafted in the later rounds in Ottawa...he was able to find some Euro gems in weak drafts(Salo, Dackell, Arvedson, Alfreddson,Rachunek,etc) |
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Mar 18, 2002 22:41:37 GMT -5
Still, look at who André drafted in the later rounds in Ottawa...he was able to find some Euro gems in weak drafts(Salo, Dackell, Arvedson, Alfreddson,Rachunek,etc) precisely. i contend that savard is fully cognizant of what this year's draft holds in terms of quality and depth and would not trade a pick away haphazardly. fwiw, here are the 75th overall picks from the last 5 years - 2001 denis platonov 2000 justin papineau 1999 brett scheffelmeier 1998 françois beauchemin 1997 jeff martin when you get to that point in the draft mileage varies tremendously due the strength of the crop and the acumen of the gm. juneau for a 3rd round pick in a weaker year, eg. françois beauchemin, seems not at all a bad deal. |
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Post by Johnny Verdun on Mar 19, 2002 0:13:33 GMT -5
But we didn't get "Juneau for a third round pick". All we really got was the right to negotiate with him for two weeks before the bidding started. Had he wanted to, Juneau could've listened politely and said "I'll see what happens after July 1st and I'll get back to you". So what's that worth, really?
Still, you may be on to something with your hypothesis. Because Juneau was in fact traded 2 weeks before he became an unrestricted FA, Phoenix gave up the right to receive any compensation from the league when he signed elsewhere. That right to compensation would've passed to the Habs under the terms of the CBA. Now, that compensation wouldn't have been as high as a third rounder, imo. Shane Corson got us a 4th, I believe. Theo Fleury got Calgary a second. Juneau, with his production, would've been a 4th at best and probably a 5th rounder.
What I can picture is this: Savard is working on the Savage for Berezin deal and is prepared to throw in a 4th rounder. Phoenix says they want a third. Savard says it's too much. Phoenix says, well, you owe us futures from the Juneau thing, so how about you bump the 4th to a third and give us the option to take it in 2002 or 2003? Savard thinks about it (I assume) and says "okay". So the "futures" is really just the upgrade from the 4th round pick that Savard wanted to give to the third that he finally did give in the Berezin deal. To me, that makes more sense because it's more in line with the usual value attached to "future considerations". For example, the Habs way back in 1987 or something were owed "futures" by the Blues from a previous deal. What we ultimately accepted as "future considerations" was a flip of second rounders in that year. So in 1987 the Habs picked 37th and the Blues picked 41st or something. Small potatoes right? Well, the Habs selected John Leclair 37th with what had been the Blues' pick. The Blues picked 4 spots later and got nothing.
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Post by M. Beaux-Eaux on Mar 19, 2002 8:06:15 GMT -5
jv, i like your spin on my hypothesis. sure, drafting 75th can yield a diamond in the rough, i cannot dispute that. but i can see savard betting on our team of scouts against phoenix's team, and considering the talent pool, and going - a 3rd rounder; small potatoes for the leadership, loyalty, experience and performance we've received from juneau up 'til now.
just to flesh out the list of 75th picks somewhat -
2001 denis platonov
2000 justin papineau
1999 brett scheffelmeier
1998 françois beauchemin
1997 jeff martin
1996 zenith komarniski
1995 scott roche
1994 sean gillam
1993 billy pierce
1992 jan caloun
i take gnick's point re savard's savvy in selecting european players in the later rounds. there's also his overall acumen when it comes to assessing young talent. for instance i highly doubt we would see andré's team pick jonathan delisle and sit back, self-satisfied, while hartford snaps up sami kapenen with the next pick, as happened in the 4th round of the 1995 draft.
as we all are aware, savard has a reputation for being notoriously tight-fisted when it comes to dealing draft choices. it follows then, that when he does deal one it is with much forethought and consideration given to the potential boomerang effect [to the degree that that can be forseen].
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Post by BadCompany on Mar 19, 2002 9:39:31 GMT -5
I doubt very much the futures were anything remotely that complicated, to be honest with you.
With regards to the UFA compensation pick the Coyotes would have recieved for Juneau, I think it probably would have been in the order of an 8th round pick, and not a 4th or 5th. I'll try to find the list of compensation picks given out last year, but they are really staggered, and for a guy like Juneau, who, after all, was one of the smaller UFA signings of last season, I really can't see it being all that high. The league just doesn't stick 15 compensation picks all in a row in the middle of the 4th round - that would be a little unfair to the team picking just after them, no? So the league has to figure out how to award picks for Turgeon, Robitaille, Lapointe, Hull, Mogilny, Roenick Weinrich, O'Donnell, Audette, Perrault, Thornton, heck, even Gilmour. By the time they get down to Juneau, the pick will be pretty low, in my opinion. Again, I will try to find the list of compensation picks.
Here is how I figure the deal went down; Andre Savard really wanted to reunite the Juneau-Dackell penalty killing tandem, and he knew, or he already had, a deal on the table for Andreas Dackell. Now acquiring Dackell by himself really isn't all that useful, and he really wanted to get Juneau to go with him. But Juneau was a UFA, and of course teams aren't even allowed to talk to a UFA before the July 1st. July 1st, of course, is after the draft, where Savard made his move to acquire Dackell. So Savard was in a little bit of a dilemna - does he make the move for Dackell, and his $1 million salary, and then hope he gets Juneau? I don't think he really wanted to do that, so he calls up his buddy Cliff Fletcher in Phoenix, and discreetly inquires whether or not the Yotes have any desire to resign Juneau. Fletcher does not, and he also knows that the compensation for Juneau isn't going to be all that great, so he is willing to deal, for something, anything.
Savard though, doesn't want to give up anything of significance for a player he can probably get for nothing in two weeks time, so we are seemingly at an impasse here.
Enter Brian Savage. Montreal and Phoenix reportedly discussed a possible Robert Reichel for Brian Savage deal, and I would bet the seeds were laid at the Juneau deal. Pure speculation on my part, but what if Cliff Fletcher said to Andre Savard "Look, I know you are going to deal Brian Savage sometime in the next year, and we are kind of interested. How about I give you Joé Juneau right now, giving you a two week head start on contract negotiations with him, and in return, you give me the right to match any possible Brian Savage deal in the future.
We know Savard is a man of his word, and he doesn't like to play politics, because he promised George McPhee of Washington that he wouldn't pimp Trevor Linden around the league, using the Capitals to drive up the price. So, while a Reichel for Savage deal didn't get done, later on in the season Savard re-calls Fletcher and the two of them work out their Berezin deal. Fletcher gets the guy he wanted all along (as evidenced by the fact that he then signs him a month later to a long term contract, worth probably a lot more than Savage is worth), and Savard gets the guy(s) he wanted, in Juneau, Dackell and maybe Berezin.
Everybody is happy, everybody gets the players they wanted, and that is that.
Pure speculation on my part, but if I had to guess, that is what I would say the "futures" in the Juneau deal were.
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 19, 2002 17:38:05 GMT -5
God, I am happy we didn't get Reichel...that would mean Rucinsky would still be here and Reichel would be making close to 4 million for mediocre production.
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Post by PTH on Mar 19, 2002 18:02:32 GMT -5
Still, look at who André drafted in the later rounds in Ottawa...he was able to find some Euro gems in weak drafts(Salo, Dackell, Arvedson, Alfreddson,Rachunek,etc) Savard was the North American scout, not European, so all these late-round Euro gems have little or nothing to do with him... |
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Post by MPLABBE on Mar 20, 2002 16:13:25 GMT -5
Savard was the North American scout, not European, so all these late-round Euro gems have little or nothing to do with him... Then why does everybody give him credit for Hossa and Havlat? I think he was the CHIEF scout. |
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