Draft Strategy

[Zaphod_Beeblebrox]

Here's a subject that I'm sure has been discussed till the proverbial cows have come home. Come June should the Habs draft to fill needs (big 1st line center/skilled wingers with size/big skilled d-men) or take the player A. Savard and scouts consider the BPA (best player available)? I feel that they should take the BPA because by the time their choice is ready to make an impact on the team, the position he plays might not be a need any longer. And by adding overall depth through the draft, the "needs" can be filled quickly via free agent signings or by trading from the depth acquired through astute drafting. I'm new here but after reading the posters here I feel confident that I will get thoughtful responses without getting flamed. Now I think that I'll rest my weary fingers.

(Welcome to HabsRus ZB. Glad to see you here. HA)

[MPLABBE]

Zaphod_Beeblebrox said:

Here's a subject that I'm sure has been discussed till the proverbial cows have come home. Come June should the Habs draft to fill needs (big 1st line center/skilled wingers with size/big skilled d-men) or take the player A. Savard and scouts consider the BPA (best player available)? I feel that they should take the BPA because by the time their choice is ready to make an impact on the team, the position he plays might not be a need any longer. And by adding overall depth through the draft, the "needs" can be filled quickly via free agent signings or by trading from the depth acquired through astute drafting. I'm new here but after reading the posters here I feel confident that I will get thoughtful responses without getting flamed. Now I think that I'll rest my weary fingers.

(Welcome to HabsRus ZB. Glad to see you here. HA)

Draft the best player available.

[PTH]

BPA, that's all there is to it.

Position is a nifty tiebreaker, but no more than that. The only exception is probably goalies - you don't want too many or too few, so that can skew things a bit.

Player style can matter, but that's really a question of personnal taste. Some teams wants skaters, some want character, etc, etc. Savard has only had one draft here, so it's tough to detect a trend or anything.

I think Savard might be involved in the top pick, but no more, from there on it's up to the scouts - just wanted to remind people that Savard can't scout, evaluate Juniors as well as do a full job as a GM.

[habmeister]

Draft the best player available.  Why you ask?  Simple, regardless of the needs the habs have.  If they draft the best player available then they can always trade that player if he turns out to fill their needs.  If they take the 3rd or 4th best to fill a need they are decreasing their chances of getting a future nhl player, as well as filling their need.

[BadCompany]

I would love to sit in on some team's drafting strategy meetings, just to see how they do things. There are so many intangibles, that any draft has got to be just a real crapshoot when you get down to it.

Ever get into one of those playoff drafts, where you think you have such a perfect strategy that there is no way you can lose? "I'm gonna draft all Detroit Red Wings, and when they win the Cup I will be the only one with players left still scoring." Seems like a great strategy, but when the first three picks are Yzerman, Federov and Shanahan, suddenly your strategy don't look so good.

I would imagine thats what an NHL draft is like. You can have a list of 300 players, but there is always something that comes along and screws it up. Say you only want to draft players who can skate, but at pick 15 you notice that the 7th ranked player, who isn't a good skater, but has 800 goals in junior, is still available - do you pick him?

I think teams just kind of make it up on the fly.

Having said that, I would go with best player available. With the possible exception of goalies. I have never been a big fan of drafting a goalie with a high pick, and unless you are absolutely certain this IS a franchise goalie, and not COULD be a franchise goalie, I just wouldn't do it. Too many intangibles.

As for drafting to fill a need, a recent trend over the last couple of years has been to draft the European overager. That 24, or 25 year old (or even 30 year old) who can come to camp and make a bid for the team right away. You are of course trying to catch lightning in a bottle, but its not a bad ploy for the 2nd or 3rd or 4th rounds. Montreal of course, drafted Martie Jarventie, a 25 year old in the 4th round, and he actually started the season with us. We also tried to lure 29 year old Victor Unjick over here, picking him in the 9th round, but he didn't want to come. Andre Savard apparently thought he could compete for a RW position right away, and as we know, we started the season rather weak on right wing. Teams looking for quick fixes at the backup goaltending position can also look in this area.

So in the first round I would always take the best player available. I would take a goalie every draft, and I would look at some veteran Europeans to fill some immediate, depth needs.

But that's just me.

[PTH]

BadCompany said:

I would love to sit in on some team's drafting strategy meetings, just to see how they do things. There are so many intangibles, that any draft has got to be just a real crapshoot when you get down to it.

Yup. Sturminator over on HF made a terrific post about "layering" the draft last year. Teams don't scout everyone out there, they just know the draft well enough to have a clue where someone will go, which "layer" he's in. Experienced scouts have a decent idea if a guy will go in the 3d or 7th round...
I think we got guys like Higgins and Ward largely because they were in a "layer" we weren't supposed to be picking in, so weren't heavily scouted, and so our scouts didn't realise that, well, they suck.

I would imagine thats what an NHL draft is like. You can have a list of 300 players, but there is always something that comes along and screws it up. Say you only want to draft players who can skate, but at pick 15 you notice that the 7th ranked player, who isn't a good skater, but has 800 goals in junior, is still available - do you pick him?

I think teams just kind of make it up on the fly.

I think they don't have a choice - for the first round they can make a definitive list since they can pick apart all the possible players, but by the middle of the 2nd round things are getting complicated as heck, and by the 5th round, who knows what's going on. A guy CSB ranked as a top 10 guy is still around, and you scouts didn't see much of him, do you grab him ? who knows...

One thing though - teams go into the draft with lists of only like 30-50 players they like, from every "layer" in the draft. Sometime they are all gone at the end,  and teams deal their 9th rounder for another teams 9th rounder next year, the other team still having players to pick.

Having said that, I would go with best player available. With the possible exception of goalies. I have never been a big fan of drafting a goalie with a high pick, and unless you are absolutely certain this IS a franchise goalie, and not COULD be a franchise goalie, I just wouldn't do it. Too many intangibles.

You can never really be sure. Luongo is showing signs of not getting it done under pressure.....
I think you have to be sure he'll be a real NHL goalie (ie - not Ryabchikov or Fichaud)

I think to draft a goalie you have to like the guy (duh) and have a need. The problem with getting a goalie when you have no need is that he gets stuck. Garon, Ouellet, etc, are now stuck without having a home.

As for drafting to fill a need, a recent trend over the last couple of years has been to draft the European overager. That 24, or 25 year old (or even 30 year old) who can come to camp and make a bid for the team right away. You are of course trying to catch lightning in a bottle, but its not a bad ploy for the 2nd or 3rd or 4th rounds. Montreal of course, drafted Martie Jarventie, a 25 year old in the 4th round, and he actually started the season with us. We also tried to lure 29 year old Victor Unjick over here, picking him in the 9th round, but he didn't want to come. Andre Savard apparently thought he could compete for a RW position right away, and as we know, we started the season rather weak on right wing. Teams looking for quick fixes at the backup goaltending position can also look in this area.

Problem is, the odd succesful overager won't be a significant player. I'm OK with getting a couple to add some depth, especially on the team Savard inherited that lacked depth big time, but I'd rather be going for the next Savage/Tucker/Markov/Odelein guy with those late picks. Jarventie is nice and all, but not worth a 4th rounder.

So in the first round I would always take the best player available. I would take a goalie every draft, and I would look at some veteran Europeans to fill some immediate, depth needs.

I'd go for BPA in the 2nd as well, and then if a significant overage European is available look at him in the middle rounds. No need to take a goalie in every draft, but always have at least 1 Junior goalie, which means drafting a goalie per 2 years.

Not having the IHL around makes it harder to deal with adequate depth to deal with injuries, there's no longer a large pool of decent pro players available whenever you want a fill-in, so having Junior players available for emergency recall becomes more important, especially in goal.

What would we have done without Michaud after all ? If we call up Lindsay from the ECHL instead then Quebec has only 1 goalie....