Operation: 8th seed.

[haborama]

I'm not sure 87 or 88 points will be enough for the boys to make it this year, HA.

Last year, in the east, Boston was edged out by Carolina for the eighth spot.  Both teams had 88 points and both were 6 games over .500.  But the 'Canes had 2 more wins (38-36).  
In the west, both Vancouver and Phoenix finished with 90 points but the Nucks took the final seed because they had one more win.  Each team was 8 games above .500.

As we sit now, our record is 22-21-8-2.  54 points in 53 games.  As I see it, there are 7 teams (Isles, Rangers, Caps, Devils, Sabres, Pens and us) in contention for the final 3 playoff spots.  

It just may take around 90 this year (maybe that loss in Edmonton will come back to bite us in the ass).  I see New Jersey turning it on and passing the Isles for sixth spot in the conference.  I don't think we'll be battling for the eighth with NJ as we are now, but rather going at it with the Isles, Rangers and Pens for the final two spots.  Can't count out the Caps and Sabres just yet.

It's going to be tough.  Pittsburgh is really turning it on as of late... and the Isles and Rangers seem to have gotten back on track.

Looking at your sched... I'm hoping for 17 out of the scary sixteen (3 points down, 14 in 14 games to go).  It'll be very tough, but doable.  The guys may come out flying after the Olympic break, as we are one of the only (if not THE only) team without a single player at the Olympics.  (excluding Zed for Slovakia).

Jan 26 02      Sat      HOME      Senators  Tie --15 to go          
Jan 27 02      Sun      HOME      Sharks    Win--13 to go          
Jan 30 02      Wed      HOME     Bruins              
Feb 5 02        Tue      AWAY      Devils              
Feb 7 02        Thu      HOME      Penguins  
Feb 9 02        Sat      AWAY      Maple Leafs        
Feb 11 02      Mon      HOME      Red Wings        
Feb 26 02      Tue      HOME      Senators              
Feb 27 02      Wed      AWAY     Blackhawks        
Mar 2 02        Sat      HOME      Hurricanes        
Mar 4  92      Mon      HOME      Thrashers        
Mar 6 02       Wed      HOME      Bruins              
Mar 8 02        Fri      AWAY        Sabres              
Mar 9 02        Sat      HOME       Maple Leafs        
Mar 11 02      Mon      AWAY      Rangers              
Mar 14 02      Thu      HOME       Stars
             
15 points out of the Benign Nine may be a stretch, but let's stick to it.  No one says this will be easy.

Mar 16 02      Sat      HOME      Hurricanes        
Mar 18 02      Mon     AWAY      Hurricanes        
Mar 20 02      Wed     AWAY      Panthers              
Mar 22 02      Fri       AWAY      Lightning        
Mar 23 02      Sat      AWAY      Predators        
Mar 26 02      Tue      HOME      Panthers              
Mar 28 02      Thu      HOME      Lightning        
Mar 30 02      Sat      HOME       Penguins              
Apr 1 02        Mon      AWAY      Penguins              

Finally, in the Sour Six, let's hope for 7.

Apr 4 02      Thu       AWAY      Flyers              
Apr 6 02      Sat       HOME       Blue Jackets        
Apr 7 02       Sun      AWAY      Senators              
Apr 9 02       Tue      HOME       Senators              
Apr 12 02      Fri       AWAY      Devils              
Apr 13 02      Sat      HOME       Sabres
       
According to my calculations, 54 + 36 = 90.  That would do it.  15 out of the benign nine will be next to impossible.  The most imortant thing is winning against the Pens (3 games), Rangers (1) and Devils (2).

Who knows... I may be stretching it a little (or a lot) but this is what is going to have to be done for that playoff spot.  It may be 87 points we need, it may be 90.  The important thing is the Ws.  

Thanks for breaking it down, HA.

[Andrew]

It's definitely going to be tight.  I agree with your assessment of 7 teams battling it out for the bottom 3 spots, though currently we sit seven points back of Toronto and Ottawa.  It's possible that one of them could join the race, bringing with them another spot.  Remember Toronto's brutal finish last year that almost cost them a playoff spot?

The teams that worry me the most are NJ and Pittsburgh.  If I'm not mistaken, the Pens have a 10+ year streak of making the playoffs.  With Lemieux playing like he is, and Straka back on skates, I can't see them not making it in.

My other major concern is the disturbing trend of games being decided in overtime.  Washington's win yesterday, for example, allowed Buffalo and Washington to collect a combined 3 points.  The same thing happened when Pittsburgh beat the Isles last week.

Oh well.  Ultimately, all the Habs can worry about is what they do on the ice.  If they continue to work hard, and get top quality goaltending, they've got a good shot.

[habwest]

"The most important thing is to win against the Pens(3), Rangers(1) and Devils(2)". Glad to see you agreeing with me haborama ol' boy. I'd add the 2 against the Sabres as well.

YOu're right, it may well take 90 points and indeed that's the more usual yardstick. I dealt with it in that book I posted, same string where HA posted his list. The reason I decided to focus on 87 (despite the fact that looking back several years you find 85 and 88 the qualifying figure) was the ongoing dismal play of NJ and the Caps. If they played down to our level 87 could well be enough.

Of course I also said that it would be asking too much from Lady Luck to expect that to happen so combine that with the Pens getting hot and the chances may well be shifting to 90 as the target as you so well point out. Your logic's probably better than mine. Which means a win and tie more against the better teams the Habs face.

I agree with you that 15 out of the Benign 9 is likely too much. Their home and road record to date would translate into 5 + 4 = 9 so 6 more is asking a lot even if against mostly weaker teams. Here the HAbs inconsistency rears its ugly head.

That of course translates into more from the Scary 16 and Sour 6. Any way you look at it it's going to be tough, tough, tough. The boys will have to outdo themselves by a considerable margin and have providence on their side but who knows maybe their luck will hold.

[MPLABBE]

It's obvious to me it will take at least 85 points to make the playoffs.You will have to play for over .500.