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Post by habwest on Jan 24, 2002 19:19:15 GMT -5
 Well, having had my huffy and gotten over my funk I decided to give this another try but this time to break it up into machine digestable pieces. Obviously this is codger software that don't have many teeth to chew dem bits so we gotta keep 'em small. So here goes. Bad Company had asked how the statistical analysis that I've been doing periodicaly over the course of the season jived with what's actually been happening. Well, things have developed a bit better than I'd calculated/estimated although not by a lot; I was pretty close. I figured that the Habs at this point would need to improve to +7 games from where they stand now to make the playoffs assuming 87 points were the benchmark for making the grade. I'd also opined that I thought that would be too much for our boys to accomplish. So, getting down to brass tacks, the team now has 51 points. They need 36 more points from the remaining 31 games. That's a .581 %, 18-13, +5 games. If 90 points is needed it's 39 more points, .629, 19-11-1, +8 games. Let's, however, stick with 87 points for reasons which I'll explain below. That's the end of this part. I'd ask you not to post until I've finished posting all of my parts (don't know how many yet). When I get to the last one I'll so indicate. That way it will all make more sense to you, I hope, and I can field any questions at once. Thanks.   I gonna dig up more stats.
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Post by habwest on Jan 24, 2002 20:10:47 GMT -5
 Now Bad Company had also previously made the point that the March schedule (15 games) was to be much kinder to our boys. Let's see: 9 home games; 7 games against better teams, 3 games against comparable teams and 5 games vs also rans. Not too bad. But, I'd also point out that the rest of Jan, the attenuated February schedule and April are conversely pretty difficult. Over the 16 games in that period the Habs see the following better teams: Sens(3), Sharks(1), Bruins(1), Leafs(1), Wings(1), Hawks(1) and Flyers(1) for a total of 9 games. They see comparable teams: Devils(2), Pens(1), Sabres(1) for 4 games leaving 3 games against the also rans. So that is a pretty tough schedule. The best thing going for the team over that period is that there are 9 home games where the Habs are considerably better. Which brings me to what may happen over these months. As a starting point I'll take the team's past performance, home and away records, and extrapolate over the remaining games to see what that gives us. Then I'll analyse the results. To date the Habs are .587 at home and .393 on the road. The team has 18 home games and 13 road games. Using past % that would amount to 21 points from home games and 10 points from road games for a total of 31 points, 5 points shy of the objective. Meeting even that shortfall objective looks as follows. Looking at home games the team faces the following top teams: Sens(3), Sharks(1), Bruins(2), Wings(1), Hurricanes(2), Leafs(1), and Stars(1) for 11 games. Comparable teams met at home are: Pens(2), Sabres(1) for 3 games. Also rans: Atlanta(1), Fla(1), Tampa(1), Columbus(1) for 4 games. In effect that means that the team has to beat all the also rans, all the comparable teams and get 3 wins and a tie from the 11 games against the better teams. When you look at it, it looks doable, IF the team plays consistently. To pick up the projected shortfall of 5 points from 82 points to 87, lets say the team needs 3 more points from home games so now they have to win 5 of the 11 games against the top teams at home while winning all of those other games as well. That would amount to a .666 home winning %. So far the team hasn't displayed such consistency. End of Part 2. More stats on the way. ;D 
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Post by habwest on Jan 24, 2002 20:49:59 GMT -5
 The Road Warriors. Projecting the Habs road record to the future amounted to 10 points out of 13 games. On the road the following better teams are faced: Leafs(1), Hawks(1), Rangers(1), Carolina(1), Flyers(1) and Sens(1) for a total of 6. Against comparable teams: Devils(2), Sabres(1), Nashville(1), Pens(1) for 5. And vs also rans: Fla(1), Tampa(1) for 2 games. Getting 10 points would mean winning both games against the also rans and 3 of the 5 against comparable teams. Picking up those last 2 extra points to reach 87 would mean winning an extra game against comparable teams or 4 out of 5. Again this looks doable, with some consistency. That's the bulk of the stats but now I'd like to introduce a couple of other considerations. The first has been working in the Habs favour big time so far and that is the ongoing under achievment of the Caps and, especially, the Devils. I think that it's fair to say that no one would have predicted at the beginning of the year that these two teams would be playing so inconsistently and struggling just to make the last playoff spot. Indeed, in most recent years these teams would have been well up in the points and the Habs would be in 10th spot and probably, to all intents and purposes, already out of the playoffs. But this year is different and one might even conjecture that 85 points might be sufficient to make the big show, under the right circumstances. Which brings me to "4" point games against teams the Habs are directly competing with to make the big show. These are the little gems that can cut both ways, great if you win them, a disaster if you don't. The Habs have the following: First and foremost the Devils, who have 2 games in hand(2), the Pens(3), the Sabres(2), and perhaps even the Rangers(1). The Habs don't play the Isles and, if you really stretch it, you might count the Sens(4). It's unlikely the team could win all 4 against the Sens, and that's probably what it would take, although if the Sens go into a dive the Habs do see them twice just before they meet the Devils and Sabres to finish off the regular schedule. So, our boys have to win a lot of these "4" point games against the comparable teams, the 2 against the Devils and nearly all against the Pens and Sabres. That's seven critical games. The end of Part 3...puff, puff, I can make it, I can make it ;D 
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Post by habwest on Jan 24, 2002 21:39:25 GMT -5
Now, let's see, what does that leave. Points in the Habs favour: 1)Theo; 2)the recent play of Gilmour and the young bloods; 3)the anaemic play of the Devils and Caps; 4)the fact that 18 of the Habs remaining 31 games are at home where the Habs have played much better; 5)the fact that the team meets 6 top teams in its 13 road games. It could have been better but it could also have been worse. Remember, the winning expectations are considerably less on the road; 6)the ability of the team to repeatedly come back after it shoots itself in the foot. Factors Against the Habs: A)they frequently shoot themselves in the foot with their inconsistent play. The team goes out and beats a better opponent and then loses to a bottom feeder. And when the team loses against one of the lower tier teams it puts itself in the position of having to go out and beat one of the better teams to make up for it. One step forward, one step back, while the games pass and the team runs out of time; B)the Habs poor defensive zone play and the absence of Brisebois. They are very vulnerable against big aggressive teams. Can the defence and their overall play hold together well enough in their own zone? C)the higher winning % required to make 87 points, ie .581. That will have to be done while playing 17 of the remaining 31 games against opponents with a better record. Again it can be done but remember point A. If the Habs remain inconsistent, ie if they don't beat pretty well every team below them in the standings, then the winning % required against the better teams is likely to gradually become too much for them to handle; D)counting on the Devils and Caps to continue to under perform. So far, luck has been flowing the Habs way pretty consistently on this one. The odds of it continuing to do so would seem to me to be less than even. It's just asking too much of Lady Luck to keep the hex on these guys while our gallant warriors limp up to the finish line; E)someone from the Southeast Division has to make it into the playoffs. For instance, the Habs could sweep the remaining 3 games against the Hurricanes and see them drop below them in the points, down with the Caps, while the Habs finished in 8th place in the points. Yet they would be knocked out by the winner of the Southeast Division even if that team had fewer points. Don't laugh, it could happen. The Caps are beset by injuries and the Canes are 6 points up but the Habs have 2 games in hand; F)the coaching. One too many too many men on the ice penalty or bad line matching could cost a game when the team can least afford it. In short, I'd still put the Habs chances of making the playoffs at less than 50-50. They're going to have to play better than they have been and they're going to have to have some things outside of their control, like whether NJ wakes up, go all their way. I can see the end...  ...just a few more details to hammer down. |
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Post by habwest on Jan 24, 2002 22:03:49 GMT -5
Well, here we are near the end  (thank God and pass the dictionary). What did I have left? Oh yes, Things that I'll be watching: a)the play of the vets. The Habs need Gilmour to keep producing and for Savage, Perreault and Juneau to start producing consistently. They need Brisebois back and Rivet, Quintal and Dykhuis playing solid defence. Not spectacular, just calm and taking care of business; b)what the Devils and Caps are up to. I thought for a while that the Rangers were getting fragile so I'm keeping an eye on them too; c)what the team does against all the teams below them in the standings. They just need to vacum the points up from these guys, picking their bones clean. Every loss against them means one more must win against the better teams; d)their winning % at home. Can they step it up a notch and keep it there? e)will the pressure start to tell on Theo? One wonders if Therrien has lost faith in Hackett and if so it's a big load for Theo to shoulder and will he get tired? f)those "4" point games! Remember- got to win the 2 against the Devils and those against the Pens and Sabres. Winning or losing the two against the Devils, if they're still wallowing, could be decisive. Well that's it, that's all the news that's fit to print. I can hear the sighs of relief, mine included. I hope somebody finds something interesting in all of this. Cheers. |
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Post by seventeen on Jan 24, 2002 23:37:09 GMT -5
Whew! My brain's still spinning. So bottom line is the Habs have to win a lot of games. That's the simplistic summation to your very thorough analysis. Like Pollyanna, I think they can do it. Unlike Pollyanna, and after discarding the rose coloured reading glasses, here's why.
a) They've gotten as far as they have with a string of miserable injuries. The odds of that streak continuing are lower than the chances of it ending. Coming back will be Brisebois, Souray, Koivu (well, maybe one rose coloured lense). I'm not sure Audette can be effective this year, even if he does return. In any case, end result is greater competition, more energy from every player, fighting for ice time.
b) some key guys, if it hasn't been noticed, are improving. These include Bulis, Zednick, Ribeiro and Markov. Hossa is a breath of fresh air.
c) Gilmour's good play has only been in existence for what, the last 15 games or so? Expect the same effort and results from Killer the rest of the year.
d) I feel this is a year of reversion to the mean, where 85 points, rather than 90, will be enough to make the grade. Some times it just doesn't matter what you do, you can't succeed and Jersey and Washington are having that kind of year. Gut feeling on that one.
So that's my reply...they'll make it because I have this....feeling. Sorry, no algorithm for that. Great work on the stats, HW.
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Post by habmeister on Jan 24, 2002 23:59:45 GMT -5
is anyone factoring in that you can have a loss in overtime and still get a point?? <br>
Teams can have a .500 record over 82 games and still be 5 or 6 points above 82. If they need 36 points in 31 games i'd venture to say that they only need to be 1 or 2 games above .500 which would bring it to 15-13-3-3 which would make it exactly 36 points!!
Then again do we really know how many points will be in? Not really, so statistically all they have to do is have more points than the 9th place team.
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Post by clear observer on Jan 25, 2002 0:24:57 GMT -5
Now THAT'S an effort. Well done and thank you sir. I'm certain that piece of work will drive up the page views.
Oh, and, the cheque's in the mail,
CO
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Post by habwest on Jan 25, 2002 1:09:45 GMT -5
To answer Seventeen, good points. Will a,b and c be enough to overcome the obstacles? I don't know. I have a gut feeling that, in the end, the Habs play won't be consistent enough and that the talent on the NJ roster will just be too much for us. Hope your gut feel is right though. To answer habaroni and cheese, although I agree with your point about overtime loses and was aware of it, I didn't overtly factor it in as the analysis was complicated enough as it was. I looked at them as ties and just figured that any such points would be taken care of, over the fairly long period of time we are looking at, in the wash, so to speak. Hence they might win fewer games but get some points from ties and/or overtime loses. My explanation was intended more to demonstrate what they were faced with than in predicting specifically what would happen. I probably should have made that point more clearly as I certainly don't claim to be able to prognosticate as precisely as I "diagramed" it. I'm no more knowledgeable than any body else here including yourself. Indeed, the point you raise may turn out to be the determining factor (the Habs have 2 OT loses so far so they may get another couple or more) so it should be remembered by folks. But those OT loses may come at the expense of the win column just as well as the loss column, ie they may blow games that were nearly won rather than succeed in tying up games that appeared lost, only to lose in OT. So they may be negatives rather than positives; clear as mud, eh. Your second point, that we really don't know how many points will be needed to get in, is absolutely correct. I just talked about it in my more long winded fashion and "guesstimated", based on precident, in order to have a baseline for analysis. On the other hand, the number of points needed to get in could just as easily go up as down. And that could be almost entirely out of the Habs hands. If that happens, for the Habs "just" to get more than the 9th team (excepting the Southeast Division caveat that I raised) could place the bar at such a high level that they simply, with the talent on hand, won't be able to get over it. A point to answer in both of your posts is that I'm not saying that the Habs don't have a realistic chance. I am saying that in weighing all the factors that come to mind I personally think that chance is less than 50-50 at this point in time. For instance, while it is true that the team getting healthier will likely help, the Caps may also get healthier which will help them and/or ol' Larry may finally succeed in lighting a fire under the Devils that gets them going on a good long winning streak. That could more than offset the better health factor for the Habs. To boil it down, I suppose what I'm saying is that you can't just look inside our team or at our team but you also have to look at our team in the context they're faced with- who do they face, how many road games, how tough will the home schedule be, what factors are out of their control, etc. And when you look at our team you have to admit their problems; for instance were the two or three games that we can all think of that they blew caused by injuries- probably not and if not what does that imply for the team's consistency?- are all of the vets going to show up regularly(who knows), etc. In the end what I'm doing is an ongoing analysis, thinking out loud, trying to understand things better and that, as much as anything else, is what I'm interested in. Which is why I'm always interested in what other folks have to say. Anyway its all fun and interesting to mull over and talk about. And of course I may be proved as wrong as can be in my prediction, which will make me very happy. Cheers |
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Post by Cranky on Jan 25, 2002 1:20:34 GMT -5
Ah geez HW, you brought your darn earth mover again, what wrong with you boy, I’m going to wear down a dozen perfectly good sp00ns digging out from this one. Only HW can put together a great post like this. The little freak. ;D The darn post is like a buffet table after a famine, you just don’t know when to jump in and gorge yourself. Let me try to sp00n together a few points. Scary Sixteen. No free lunches in here. They need to play .500 hockey to make it. OR ELSE. Dream of 16 points from this run. Anything less and they may as well polish the old golfing shoes. Jan 26 02 Sat HOME Senators Jan 27 02 Sun HOME Sharks Jan 30 02 Wed HOME Bruins Feb 5 02 Tue AWAY Devils Feb 7 02 Thu HOME Penguins Feb 9 02 Sat AWAY Maple Leafs <br>Feb 11 02 Mon HOME Red Wings <br>Feb 26 02 Tue HOME Senators Feb 27 02 Wed AWAY Blackhawks <br>Mar 2 02 Sat HOME Hurricanes <br>Mar 4 92 Mon HOME Thrashers <br>Mar 6 02 Wed HOME Bruins Mar 8 02 Fri AWAY Sabres Mar 9 02 Sat HOME Maple Leafs <br>Mar 11 02 Mon AWAY Rangers Mar 14 02 Thu HOME Stars Benign Nine, Soft spot, the do or die underbelly of this season, if they put together 15/16 points out of this run, I think the post season is doable. Now, that is .850 hockey. Mar 16 02 Sat HOME Hurricanes <br>Mar 18 02 Mon AWAY Hurricanes <br>Mar 20 02 Wed AWAY Panthers Mar 22 02 Fri AWAY Lightning <br>Mar 23 02 Sat AWAY Predators <br>Mar 26 02 Tue HOME Panthers Mar 28 02 Thu HOME Lightning <br>Mar 30 02 Sat HOME Penguins Apr 1 02 Mon AWAY Penguins Sour Six, possibly 6 points. These boys are not going to be kidding around at this time of year. Apr 4 02 Thu AWAY Flyers Apr 6 02 Sat HOME Blue Jackets <br>Apr 7 02 Sun AWAY Senators Apr 9 02 Tue HOME Senators Apr 12 02 Fri AWAY Devils Apr 13 02 Sat HOME Sabres <br> Scary Sixteen =16 points Benign Nine =15 points Sour Six = 6 points That is 37 points from possible 64. They have a total of 37 plus 51 for 88 points. Right smack in heart attack territory. This thing is going to the wire. One huge point I like to make. The Hab's have to play at 110% in order to win with their line up. What happens when everybody else raises their level to 110%? I saw the the Grim Reaper buy an extra kilo of schnitzel the other day, must be bulking up to take on the “improved” Hab’s.  Meanwhile, I will keep digging myself out of this mountain of numbers. |
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Post by habwest on Jan 25, 2002 2:15:04 GMT -5
Hey HA, ya done good son, real good. Distilled my pile into something clearly understandable (thank you my son) and with cute little monickers too. Scary 16 (one of the girls, or guys, take your pick we had 'em both, in high school), Benign 9, that was our high school baseball team ('cause we never had one so it was as benign as you could get), and Sour 6 (let's see, the school doo wop group, with me in it?). I agree with your conclusions and reasoning, sounds good, I think that we're on the same page. Good luck with the digging. I need you around next time I dump so as someone can make sense of it for everyone else. Cheers |
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 25, 2002 7:55:57 GMT -5
Unbelievable. Unfreakin' believeable.
I am so sorry man, I didn't mean for you to go that crazy with it - I was just wondering how you thought we were doing with respect to how you had thought we should have been doing.
Wow. Fantastic, fantastic post. You should e-mail that Andre Savard. When I get named GM of the team, you're my stats guy.
Just want to make two points - there really is nothing else I can add to that.
One, we see now just how badly blowing games against the lesser teams has cost us. The 3 goal lead against Atlanta, the losses to Florida, Minnesota and Tampa, the Edmonton fiasco. Win those games, and we are sitting pretty. We see now, that there can be no days off for this team.
The second point I wanted to raise, was the effects of the Olympic break. As everybody knows, we will not be sending anyone to Salt Lake City, and I wonder if anyone thinks that might be to our advantage? You look at some of the teams we are chasing, or who are chasing us, and does anyone think fatigue might become a real factor for some of those guys?
The Capitals will be sending Jagr, Gonchar and Bondra (providing Slovakia makes it through), the Rangers will be sending Lindros, Fleury, Nedved, Richter and Leetch, the Penguins will have Lemieux and Kovalev (not to mention they might have to trade Kaspiritus) and so on. Guys like Lindros, Richter and Lemieux are somewhat beaten up as it is, and they could probably use the two week break.
Montreal on the other hand, will have those two weeks to not only rest up (Theodore in particular), but to get healthy as well. Players like Brisebois, Souray, Traverse, Savage, Kilger - whoever is nicked and banged up should in theory get healthy. We saw how revitalized Doug Gilmour was after skipping a couple of days, what will two weeks do for him? If we can avoid coming out the break rusty, we just might be in better shape going down the stretch than some other teams who have seen their best players going non-stop since October.
Should go right down to the wire. Like you, I think there is a very good chance we could finish 8th in the conference in points, but miss out because of some team from the Southeastern Conference making it in.
Great job. We should try to get this saved somewhere.
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 25, 2002 8:03:53 GMT -5
Scary Sixteen. No free lunches in here. They need to play .500 hockey to make it. OR ELSE. Dream of 16 points from this run. Anything less and they may as well polish the old golfing shoes. Jan 26 02 Sat HOME Senators Jan 27 02 Sun HOME Sharks Jan 30 02 Wed HOME Bruins Feb 5 02 Tue AWAY Devils Feb 7 02 Thu HOME Penguins Feb 9 02 Sat AWAY Maple Leafs <br>Feb 11 02 Mon HOME Red Wings <br>Feb 26 02 Tue HOME Senators Feb 27 02 Wed AWAY Blackhawks <br>Mar 2 02 Sat HOME Hurricanes <br>Mar 4 92 Mon HOME Thrashers <br>Mar 6 02 Wed HOME Bruins Mar 8 02 Fri AWAY Sabres Mar 9 02 Sat HOME Maple Leafs <br>Mar 11 02 Mon AWAY Rangers Mar 14 02 Thu HOME Stars Benign Nine, Soft spot, the do or die underbelly of this season, if they put together 15/16 points out of this run, I think the post season is doable. Now, that is .850 hockey. Mar 16 02 Sat HOME Hurricanes <br>Mar 18 02 Mon AWAY Hurricanes <br>Mar 20 02 Wed AWAY Panthers Mar 22 02 Fri AWAY Lightning <br>Mar 23 02 Sat AWAY Predators <br>Mar 26 02 Tue HOME Panthers Mar 28 02 Thu HOME Lightning <br>Mar 30 02 Sat HOME Penguins Apr 1 02 Mon AWAY Penguins Sour Six, possibly 6 points. These boys are not going to be kidding around at this time of year. Apr 4 02 Thu AWAY Flyers Apr 6 02 Sat HOME Blue Jackets <br>Apr 7 02 Sun AWAY Senators Apr 9 02 Tue HOME Senators Apr 12 02 Fri AWAY Devils Apr 13 02 Sat HOME Sabres <br> Scary Sixteen =16 points Benign Nine =15 points Sour Six = 6 points That is 37 points from possible 64. They have a total of 37 plus 51 for 88 points. Right smack in heart attack territory. This thing is going to the wire. I saved this as a Word doc, and I am going to try and keep track of it. Spiro, anyway we could this put up somewhere, sort of as a ticker, or a tracker, or a billy bat whacker? (Billy-bat whacker?) I think this would be a great way to keep track of whether or not the season is slipping away from us or not. For example, we might lose three in a row, and think its all over, but by checking the tracker, we can see if we are still on pace (taking into consideration the benign 9 and all that) and still have hope. |
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Post by Cranky on Jan 25, 2002 17:02:15 GMT -5
I am sure that AS and Therrien are breaking down the schedule the way we are. The next sixteen gamesBrings us to the trading deadline. Unfortunatly the soft spot may keep AS from making the trades that he would if that soft spot was spot there. Could be a blessing or ra curse.
Interesting and nail biting times ahead.
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Post by HFTO on Jan 25, 2002 18:42:28 GMT -5
Great job my friend on taking the time to break things down on paper rather than mulling them over in my head.I have lamented over the schedule and cursed the boys for their blown chances to make hay over the first 51 games.
The inconsistancy of the club does not bode well for them.Is is possible yes but I think it unlikely I hope I'm wrong.If New Jersey and Washington ( don't count out Pitt) continue to flounder the mid 80's is a possible figure for the 8th spot.I had figured it would take ninety points at the begining of the season and may yet.If the Rangers and Islanders continue to struggle things obviously will be easier.Your perdiction would create an intersting poll.How many points will the Habs get my guess 32 points.For a total of 83.Who are the optimists out there tell me I'm wrong.
HFTO
2nd Standing O for Hab West
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(thank God and pass the dictionary). What did I have left? Oh yes,
