Interesting dilemna for Andre Savard.

[BadCompany]

As has been pointed out on more than one occasion, the schedule makers have made it difficult for the Habs to get any sort of momentum going, and frankly it is a wonder they have stayed this close for so long. The general consensus has been though, that teams like New Jersey and Washington are just too strong and will eventually break through.

So here is Andre Savard's dilemna; March 14th is the trade deadline, and if they aren't gone by then already, Savard might be looking to dump Brian Savage and Jeff Hackett, and maybe Doug Gilmour and whoever else, for whatever he can get, even if it is just mediocre picks. The idea being that something is always better than nothing. The temptation is to think "well, if they are 7 or 8 points out of the playoff spot by then, its pretty much lights out, and we should be thinking about next year."

But I went and checked the Canadiens schedule for March, and leaving aside the total geekdom involved in analysing a sports team's schedule 2 months down the line, I was rather surprised to see the teams we play down the stretch.

Beginning March 16th, our 1st game after the trade deadline, we play, in order:

Hurricanes
Hurricanes  
Panthers  
Lightning  
Predators
Panthers
Lightning  
Penguins  
Penguins

Anybody else think the Habs can reel off a 9 game winning streak beginning just after the trade deadline? So even if the Habs are 8 or 9 points out of the final playoff spot, the opportunity is there to make up a lot of ground, and in a hurry. Now of course Andre Savard's job should be to always build for the future, to build a Cup contending team, but he also really, really wants to make the playoffs this year (and the millions of dollars and restoration of prestige that go with it). March 14th he may be looking at the schedule and thinking "I just might need Savage and Hackett and Gilmour and Souray afterall."

So is it possible Montreal does nothing on trade deadline day? Is it possible Montreal loads up for the playoff run, maybe adding a veteran or two, like Boston tried to do last year, acquiring Eric Weinrich for the stretch run?

[clear observer]

If they're close and within striking distance, that's EXACTLY what I think AS will do and SHOULD do for the very reasons that you stated, revenue and prestige.

Great topic BC. I'm certain you'll get some good responses to it.


CO
Where in the LOVE OF GOD has Keith Marion been hiding???

[The New Guy]

It's a bit risky to say the least...

Obviously, the goal of this team is to make the playoffs.  The money, the pretige and the greater shot at some decent UFA's has to rate highly in the minds of George and Andre.  But what do you have to give up to get those rent-a-players.

Prospects.  

Always prospects.  Sometimes (such as Traverse for Weinrich) you're not going to have to give up too much but deals like that don't come along too often.  And do we really want to give up our prospects?  I don't.  Do we want to give up picks ?  I don't.  

I don't think renting a player is in Savard's best interest.  I do, however, think that it might be worth our while to pursue an offensive player or two - Hackett would be the easiest player to dump going into a playoff run that might net something good.

It's a hard call - on one hand we're rebuilding.  On the other we can make the playoffs with a few key additions.  A rent-a-player might make the difference between eight and ninth.  

I guess that's why t heHabs didn't hire me as their GM last year

[glow=red,2,300]Later[/glow]

[Bobs_HABit]

Regardless, it should be interesting but I have a feeling if we have a remote chance at the playoffs, AS will make some kind of a deal maybe even for a rent a player. I think it's important that this next offseason, Savard can tell free agents how we made every effort to make the postseason, how we've turned the corner so to speak (with a playoff berth) and that things will only get better from here.

PS.Love the new look, guys. Look forward to lots of discussions.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

This reminds me of the delimna that Reggie Houle had to face. I think it was two-years running where les boys were only a few points out of a playoff birth while nearing the end of the regular season schedule.  You know yourself, it really didn't matter what decision Houle made; he was doomed before hand anyway.

And as much as many would like to move Savage and Hackett, you've made two very important observations. The first one was in this post where Savard may just have to decide to hang onto his veterans if his club is close to, or even in the playoffs. The second point you made was some time ago where, as much as it would be nice to trade these guys, who are you going to trade with and who is going to give you the value you are looking for in the deal? Not only must there has to be someone to trade up with, but someone that will give you a return that benefits your club.

The other side of the coin is that Savard runs the risk of not making the playoffs and getting nothing for Savage, should Savage decide to walk.

It's a pretty tough call, BC. Frankly I don't know if this edition of the Habs (less Audette and Koivu) can play to the level they should be able to, every night. These guys just aren't a sure bet where pro lotteries are concerned. More specifically, sometimes these guys just play to the level of the team they're playing.

Anyway, it's very uncertain as to what to do. If he does do the right thing it will be because of his indepth knowledge of the league and hockey 8). If he ends up getting burned, it will because he's .... well, you know .

Cheers.

[Doc Holliday]

Go for the kill.  That's what I say.

If this team can stay as motivated as they are right now, they can compete, even against heavy team that forechecks, they've shown it.   Savard shouldn't wait for the trade deadline to do what he's gotta do IMO but rather help the team right now.

One thing I hope we don't get is more prospects.  Up front we have Ribeiro, Bulis, Asham and Zednik that are developping really nicely with Hossa, Chouinard and Ward knocking at the door.  On D, well, we know how stocked up we are and the same goes for goaltending.  No fringe players either (the Traverse, Lind, Simpson kind).

Savage should obviously be moved, but Savard can get creative and try to see if he can move guys like Perreault, Robidas and Petrov who should carry interesting value in an effort to to get a really special player (Bertuzzi ?, Isbister?, Lacavalier? heck why not go for Selanne?).

[habmeister]

I'm not sure i really agree with any of you on this topic.  I definetly don't think we should change the course that this team is heading on.  The fact is is that Theodore is the key right now.  He is for real and he could carry this team a long ways playoffs and regular season.  I say we deal the UFA's like savage for decent youth, but not blow our budget on a selanne type player.


Well i should wrap this up, the girlfriend arrived and is bugging me to get off the computer. hmph, women.  

[Ryan]

I trust Savard to do what is right for the team...the one thing that must happen thought is trade SAVAGE!!!

I don't care if we win every game from now until the deadline by a 6-0 score, this guy has to go.  I think we've sat around and waited for this guy long enough.  He's not the kid with promise anymore, he's the veteran that is showing why he was a late pick in the draft.

Get him out of the room, there are plenty more boys in Quebec willing to battle for his spot.  Right now all they'd have to do is come up to the big club, get lots of ice time, and time on the PP and not produce.  We get someone to do that, and it'll be like Savage never left.

[PTH]

Interesting topic.

I think though it won't wind up being all that critical - there are really only a handful of possible scenarios, and for each one the actions to be taken are clear enough.

If the Habs are totally out of it, then well, deal off Savage for anything better than the compensatory pick we'll be getting, take any decent deal for Hack that comes along, and generally look at improving the team for next season.

If we're in the playoff hunt, then it really depends on injuries - ours and others. If we lose someone important shortly before the deadline, we might need to make a deal to strengthen the team - a Traverse-Weinrich deal being the best example of what we can pray for.

OTOH, if the team that's losing a player comes calling, then we can sell off for above-normal value, or else just sit back and relax.

I'm babbling. Let's do this differently.

A terrific deal you do, whatever the time and place.
If we can get a high-level player at a decent price, we do it, period.
If we can selloff an asset for far more than it's worth, we do it, period.

For the rest, Savage, Hackett, Souray perhaps, and Gilmour are the only assets we could hope to deal.
Do they really have significant value ? Hack is worth a 2nd rounder, Savage won't fetch us much more than the compensatory pick we'll get anyhow, Souray isn't even being missed, and Gilmour was available to all for a long time. If we're in the playoff race the only one of these who is contributing significantly more than whatever replacement we could get is Gilmour, the other 3 could be dealt without even blinking, whatever the circumstances.

If we're in the race, we can't deal Gilmour, that would just look awful. For the rest it wouldn't change all that much to the team's complexion.

If we're in the race, we can look at getting a 2nd rate rental or castoff, but that doesn't involve much asset-wise, anyhow, so I wouldn't worry about it.

Fact is, right now the Habs still have little to deal away, we have some young projects we need to hang onto(Bulis, Hossa, prospects, Ribeiro), a handful of young contributors (Théodore, Zednik... ?), and a boatload of old guys that people don't really want all that badly or who can't be dealt without major problems (imagine dealing away a guy who signed here for less - we'll never get another UFA...) (Petrov, Hackett, Gilmour, Audette, Perrault, Dykhuis, etc.) , along with spare parts - VanAllen, Bouillon, Robidas, etc

Looking at the Linden deal in hindsight, it's clear to me that Savard was betting heavily on that deal.... Zubrus and Linden were two of his only tradeable assets with pretty high value.

[seventeen]

I don't see a quandary at all.  Consider the players Savard realistically would move between now and the deadline.  These would be Hackett and Savage on the very likely list (neither has played much of a role in getting us where we are).  On the "I'd rather not lose them, but I'd better get something good in return" list are Asham, Chouinard, Dackell, Juneau, Kilger, Gilmour, Perreault, Petrov, Audette, Souray, Ward and Zednik.  Before a lynch party gets organized, I am not espousing trading these guys, especially the younger ones, but I believe we'd all agree that their loss would not hold back the development of the team 2 years from now.  We'd have a couple of guys in the untouchable category (and this will probably generate differences of opinion) which I'd say are Koivu and Thibeadeau, whoops I mean Theo (touch of Coleitis there).  Then, there's a final category of "I'd really hate to lose these guys and I'd get ulcers over it", of Hainsey, Bulis, Komisarek, Markov, Ribeiro.  There are other prospects who aren't proven enough who I haven't put in here and there are also current players on the roster of whom I'm indifferent - Odjick, Dykuis, etc.  Savard can move any of the guys in categories 1, 2 and indifferents without it having much impact on the team and potentially improving it for the stretch drive.  If a deal for Kariya or Lecavalier (though I'm lukewarm on that) comes along, I might stretch into category 4.  To summarize this rambling note, a trade can be made without gutting the essentials of the team, but which would improve us.  We have lots of unremarkable depth, if we can use it to acquire a remarkable talent, or a soon to be remarkable talent,  AS should go for it.  Right now.

[WhyteKnight63]

Interesting comments from both sides. Personally, I know Savard will do the right thing.

1- Trading Savage: I do not believe that AS will let this one go to UFA. Best case scenario: He signs him, then flips him to another team for better value. Other than that he will take whatever he can get at or before the trade deadline.

2- Trading Hackett: I hope not for another year at least. We have no backup ready in the organization.

Other than that, I am not convinced that he will make a blockbuster move. I think he should stay the course and keep building the franchise. No matter what, I beleive he will make the right decision AT THE RIGHT TIME!

UFA's will be slightly easier to get next summer due to our improving outlook, our results and the future in sight. We did manage to snag 5 NHL players last year (Perreault - Dackell - Juneau - Quintal - Gilmour) without losing anything beyond a 4th and an 8th round pick. This year we are vastly improved from that last year team, so we should be able to get 1 or 2 more quality UFAs at least.

If we start getting rid of our NHL depth, then we are only going to make it harder to attract talent...

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

while savard didn't run the show in ottawa, he did have a significant effect on the composition and performance of the team. he was an assistant coach for parts of two seasons before spending three years in scouting and returned behind the bench in his last year.

i don't believe savard is hunting for a 'big name'. that's not to say that if the right offer is pitched to him that he'll turn his nose up at it. but he ain't no foule waving players at other gms with a mad gleam of desperation in his eyes.

i think he'll continue to build the team through draft picks, free agent signings and promotion through the ranks.

i don't think the team is rich enough in assets at present to make a blockbuster deal ultimately profitable. after this summer's free agent signings and entry draft, perhaps.

i want the promising young talent [asham, hossa, ribeiro, markov, gratton] to be firmly entrenched on the canadiens roster, as well as to see what 'next-in-line' candidates [chouinard, ward, hainsey, garon] have to offer at the nhl level.

i want some sort of semi-decent return for hackett and savage [and i want to put the balance of the 5.7 million in salary back in the kitty if i can]. i think draft picks or medium-shot prospects are all we can reasonably expect at present. this may well change for the better for us shortly. or not.

i want to see what free agents, if any, savard can sign this summer. i want to see what our entry draft choices look like this year.

i want to wait and see if koivu and/or audette will make it back.

i want to have players like balej, milroy, komiserak, tarasov, dyment, archer, perezhogin, plekanec, larrivée under contract and playing minor pro.

i don't want panic.

[KR]

Barring some sort of bizarre turn of events, Savage is history. I wouldn't expect any more than a 2nd round pick in return. Heinze and Audette fetched just that last year despite both enjoying better seasons than the one Savage is having now. If I were AS and I could obtain a big banging winger for Savage, I'd do it. Otherwise, look for the draft pick. I don't necessarily think Hacket will be dealt. He's signed beyond this season and the market probably isn't that strong for him right now anyway. He can still be a terrific asset. No point in trading for the sake of trading. Like Savage, if he can be moved for a big forward that can hit, go for it. A package of the two players would be ideal as there is a glut of forwards as it is. I don't see any blockbusters on the horizon.

[spider_ice]

Hi Guys !!
First it's great post.

I think a little like Mr_Bozo. We just start the light at the end of the tunnel so we can't trade any youngs players who's gonna develop into a great player with a another team.

Theodore is your #1 for the next 10 years and more importantly he's dieing to play 60-70 games a year so any back-up will do the job.

Savage never showed any signs of leadership, and never produced 30 goals and he did play with greats centermans (koivu, turgeon, damphousse).

So trade Savage and Hackett and you will be the winner in the trade because you trade players who aren't part of the future of the organization. This trade gonna freeze up some money and this the chance to youngs players to shine under the spotlight.

[Vichab]

Savage is gone. He played himself off the team and he knows it. When was the last time you saw him smile? This is the most important year of his career if he wanted to land the big deal and now he's looking at getting no better an offer than he has been getting paid by the Habs even in these days of ridiculous UFA signings. Human nature and pro athletes being what they are Savage and his agent will never agree to the reasonable offers AS is and may be making. They will not come to terms by trade deadline and AS will pull the trigger. It won't be a tough decision for AS. Unfortunately I believe Savage will score 30+ goals with his new team as a new center and enviroment will do him well. The hope is that some other gm thinks so and is prepared to give something up for that prediction.

Where it starts to get interesting is if we can put a package together. As I've wriiten in earlier posts I believe we can not take that next step until we get the superstar. That will only be done by the package deal or the FA; the latter won't happen til summer. If we can land the superstar by a trade then I don't know if anyone is untouchable, except maybe Theo and Robiero, who given his age and showing so far has a tremendous upside. I am not eager to get rid of Hack as I love his attitude as does Theo and the two together have been our best asset over the last couple of years. If giving up Hack to make the big deal is there then go for it but due to his injuries he's not going to get what he's worth and that's alot to us. We know how he can play when healthy.

I say stay the course until the BIG deal comes but any way you cut it  Savage has less then two months in a Habs uniform. Sorry to see him go as he's been a good warrior for us during these difficult years but AS  has got to get something for him. The only question is whether AS can put a package together with Savage and others to land a marquee player. That will depend on the needs of other teams. If we're dealing with a team whose out of the playoffs then they will be wanting to unload salaries for prospects. Problem there is that other teams may be able to offer more than us unless we're prepared to talk Hossa and Markov and maybe even Robiero. If we're dealing with a team in the playoffs then they will want to give up prospects. We don't need prospects. I think AS has his work cut out for him and I think we're waiting til summer for the big deal.