6/22 - 2003 NHL Entry Draft (day 2 starts @ 10 am)

[MPLABBE]

Yeah, what's that all about? seems to me NJ is picking 30th now since they won the cup, no?

[BadCompany]

Habs_fan_in_LA said:

Imagine how good he will be with Gainey in charge of his Tim Horton intake!
Add 15 lbs of muscle, drop 20 lbs of fat. A little power skating practice and we have a winner.

Saint Bob?

[Thomas]

Marc said:

Yeah, what's that all about? seems to me NJ is picking 30th no since they won the cup, no?

You probably did the same thing as me and skipped the whole article at the top. It explains that NJ has the right to swap picks with St-Louis becuase of the Scott Stevens thing, and thus St-L would draft 30th.

[MPLABBE]

Woah...how many more years can the Devils do this?

I know in 01 they got an extra first rounder from STL because of the whole Stevens thing once again..

[Dschens]

Marc said:

Yeah, what's that all about? seems to me NJ is picking 30th no since they won the cup, no?

Pick 22 (St. Louis to New Jersey) - As part of the Scott Stevens tampering decision, New Jersey was awarded, and is exercising this year, the right to switch 1st-round picks with St. Louis (Jan. 4, 1999).

www.nhl.com/futures/2003draft/draft_order061203.html

[MPLABBE]

welcome aboard and thanks again Dschens

[Thomas]

Right now I wouldn't mind trading down a few spots and picking Kastystin and with that extra pick or player we get for moving down, use it in a package to get another mid round pick and draft Stewart with it giving us a skillful sniper (LW) and a potential PF (RW). In a few years time place them next to koivu for:

Stewart - Koivu - Kastystin

Naslund - Morrison - Bertuzzi

Both lines seem very much alike but we have the better playmaker to set up Kastystin but Stewart will probably never be as good as Bertuzzi but you never know...

That would allow us to put Zednik and Perezhogin on the 2nd line, we would just need to find a good center for them, Hossa? Hossa seems lost at the wing in the last few hamilton games and is known as a pretty good playmaker who could possibly set up both Zednik and Perezhogin.

Stewart - Koivu - Kastystin
Zednik - Hossa - Perezhogin
Bulis - Higgins - Ward
Kilger - Gratton - Milroy

Markov - Komisarek
Hainsey - Rivet
Souray - Archer

Theodore
Garon

This is if all pans out correctly, pretty d*mn good lines if you ask me.
We could then trade pleckanec, ryder and beauchemin in the package for another mid 1st rd pick.

[MPLABBE]

I thought Kasty was a RW and Stewart a LW?

I would not mind that scenario if we can get Kasty at say 13 or 14

[Thomas]

Marc said:

I thought Kasty was a RW and Stewart a LW?

I would not mind that scenario if we can get Kasty at say 13 or 14

My mistake, switch them but it doesnt make that big of a dif now does it . If Phaneuf and Parise are gone at #10, I prefer this scenario then drafting someone like Getzlaf or Jessiman.

[haborama]

Less than a week to go now! I'm freakin excited..

It starts at 12:00 eastern/9:00 pacific, no?

[Lord Stanley]

Marc said:

SI has a modified mock draft out that is very different from the first one...

sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/news/2003/06/13/mock_draft/


They have us picking Kastsitsyn now..and Parise going to CGY at 9 and Phaneuf to NYR at 12!

All fun stuff to read as we are only about 150 hours away

If Coburn gets available At 8th (Atlanta's pick) I would do anything to get this pick...this guy has been compared to Chris pronger...that's not too shabby..and I don't think we would be the only team trying to since ATL let everyone know of their desire to trade the pick to get better for next year (make the playoffs)

[seventeen]

Marc said:

welcome aboard and thanks again Dschens

Yes, Danke Dschens.

[MPLABBE]

haborama said:

Less than a week to go now! I'm freakin excited..

It starts at 12:00 eastern/9:00 pacific, no?

I think it's at 1 pm eastern (since it's in Nashville)

[CLAN]

Marc said:

Yeah, the Thrashers REALLY need that potential number 1 d-man. They are in a position where they SHOULD draft the best d-man available...they have the goalie, they have alot of offensive talent up front..but their D sucks BAD..

No worse than our suckazz defence[exception to Komisarek] [ftp][/ftp]

[MPLABBE]

CLAN said:

No worse than our suckazz defence[exception to Komisarek] [ftp][/ftp]

lol I hope you are joking

There is no player even close to Markov on the Thrashers D

hell, there is not even a Breezy on their D

[MPLABBE]

Interesting quotes from mr Pleau:

www.nhl.com/futures/2003draft/trades061403.html

''Our concern is if we can't move up, if we can't get what we are comfortable with, do we want to move back and get two second-round picks?" Pleau said. "I think the sleepless nights come more from the teams sitting in the top five or six and if you have something somebody wants you can move up."

Blues pick at 30th...anyone ready to give up the Philly pick to move up 10 spots?

if Bernier is there at 30, I'd do it for sure.

[GoMtl]

CLAN said:

No worse than our suckazz defence[exception to Komisarek] [ftp][/ftp]

Let's take a quick look at our defence compared to Atlanta's

Top 2

Montreal
Andrei Markov - HT: 6-0 WT: 203 AGE: 24
2002-03: 79 13 24 37 +13

Craig Rivet - HT: 6-2 WT: 207 AGE: 28
2002-03: 82 7 15 22 +1

>>>V.S.<<<

Atlanta
Frantisek Kaberle - HT: 6-1 WT: 190 AGE: 29
2002-03: 79 7 19 26 -19

Daniel Tjarnqvist - HT: 6-2 WT: 195 AGE: 26
2002-03: 75 3 12 15 -20

Other

Montreal
Patrice Brisebois - HT: 6-2 WT: 196 AGE:32
2002-03: 73 4 25 29 -14

Stephane Quintal - HT: 6-3 WT: 234 AGE: 34
2002-03: 67 5 5 10 -4

Michael Komisarek - HT: 6-4 WT: 240 AGE: 21
2002-03: 21 0 1 1 -6

Karl Dykhuis - HT: 6-3 WT: 214 AGE: 30
2002-03: 65 1 4 5 -5

Patrick Traverse - HT: 6-4 WT: 208 AGE: 29
2002-03: 65 0 13 13 -9

Sheldon Souray - HT: 6-4 WT: 223 AGE: 26
2001-02: 34 3 5 8 -5

>>>V.S.<<<

Chris Tamer - HT: 6-2 WT: 205 AGE: 32
2002-03: 72 1 9 10 -10

Yannick Tremblay - HT: 6-2 WT: 200 AGE: 27
2002-03: 75 8 22 30 -27

Andy Sutton - HT: 6-6 WT: 245 AGE: 28
2002-03: 53 3 18 21 -8

Kirill Safronov - HT: 6-2 WT: 215 AGE: 22
2002-03: 32 2 2 4 -10

Mike Weaver - HT: 5-9 WT: 185 AGE: 25
2002-03: 40 0 5 5 -5

---

Uhm... the numbers don't tell the full story, but they also don't lie... Atlanta's defence is absolutely horrible, you say "with exception to Komisarek" our is... Well i think you're forgetting about Markov, Rivet and a healthy Souray who are all better than anyone on this Atlanta blue line, along with Brisebois and Quintal who are arguabely better aswell.

[Dschens]

First of all, thanks for the welcome, Marc and Siebzehn
Hello to all the posters and lurkers on this board. And a special greeting to PTH, Yeti, HA and all the other guys I've met two years ago at HF.

Ok, enough of this stuff

Marc and Thomas, I don't agree with your idea of trading down to get Andrei Kastsitsyn with pick 13 or 14 or Hugh Jessiman with a pick in the same range.
I wanna illustrate my points with the "layer" concept which I think firstly came to my mind with a posting of Sturminator two years ago on the Prospects Board over there on HF.
So here we go:


=====

"Layering" the Draft

Posted By: Sturminator
Date: 4/11/01 13:31

I've got a theory on how teams approach the draft. It's something that's kind of developed over time, mostly from listening to and reading post-draft quotes from various GMs around the league. I've been lucky enough to follow the Sharks for a few seasons and the always colorful and forthcoming Dean Lombardi (from whom I got the term "layers" as it applies to the draft) has helped bring into focus certain parts of this theory. It's actually a pretty straightforward idea and one that I think makes a lot of sense, but at the same time, I don't think it's been discussed on this forum before.

It starts with a question(s): How to NHL teams decide on whom to draft? Do they take the best available player in all situations or do they focus on positions and filling needs?

The answer, I believe, is yes. To both questions.

OK - here goes:

All teams have a draft board with their favorite players at the top, and some sort of progression to the bottom; that's pretty well accepted (unless you believe in the Milbury/Smith "name in a hat" theory - lol). My belief is that these draft boards are not so much a 1-2-3-4... kind of ordering of players, but that instead they are more of a grouping, in which there are many descending "layers" of players all of whom Team X views as being guys with similar skill levels.

To further illustrate the point, I will give you an example of how *I* would layer the 2001 draft if I were an NHL GM (I'm not going to justify the layers for the sake of this post, because I don't want to obscure the main point by arguing about specific player rankings).

Layer 1: Kovalchuk - projected #1 pick
Layer 2: Spezza - projected #2 pick
Layer 3: Chistov, Svitov & Weiss - projected picks #3 - #5
Layer 4: Ruttu, Leclair, Gleason, Sjostrom - projected picks #6 - #9
Layer 5: Koivu - projected #10 pick
Layer 6: Blackburn, Kobasew, Hamhuis - projected picks #11 - #13
Layer 7: Umberger, Milroy, Knyazev, Karlsson, Komisarek, Hemsky, Novotny - projected picks #14 - #20
Layer 8: Harrison, Armstrong, Popovic, Polushin, Korsunov - projected picks #21 - #25
Layer 9: etc....

The idea is that teams aren't 100% sure about every single player ranking, but that they form general ideas about the overall skill level of the players they're looking at, and view some players as essentially equal in overall skill. The first rule, then, is that you draft from the highest "layer" (according to your rankings) that is left on the board when your pick comes up. *If* there is more than one player in your highest remaining layer, *then* other factors come into play, such as the position of the player in question, any hometown bias, whether or not you think he'll be difficult to sign, etc. The idea is that *everything* plays a factor in player selection, but that talent (the "best player available" technique) is the *first* deciding factor.

For example, say you are the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2001 draft and your board looks like mine (the same layers). At pick #21, you are looking at, by your own projections, players from Layer 8 and below. But, as luck would have it, one player from Layer 7, Ales Hemsky, is still available. You pick Hemsky because he is the best talent left based upon your projections.

Now we'll re-do that scenario. Say you are the Penguins at pick #21, and through a stroke of rotten luck, all of your projected 20 best players (Layers 1-7) are snapped up in the top 20 picks. So now you are left with the next batch of talent (Layer 8) to choose from. This is where the other factors enter the equation, positional need chief among them. Do you need a big hard-hitting defenseman like Harrison - well probably not since you just drafted Orpik. Do you need a potential Power Play QB type like Popovic. Maybe. Or a solid 2-way defenseman like Korsunov. Maybe. How about a gritty, hard-working winger with projected 2nd line skills like Armstrong. Probably not - doesn't really fit the team. Or maybe a big, raw Russian power forward. Perhaps. So you mull your options, faced with five players who you view as equal talents, and decide on the one that best suits you. You choose Popovic.

In a third hypothetical, say that for some reason both Hemsky and Knyasev (from Layer 7) are available when pick #21 comes up. The choice is going to be between these two based upon talent, but now the team has to go through the same decision making process weighing secondary factors as they did in the last example. Let's say the Penguins decide to go with Knyasev.

One unified technique for approaching the draft yields three very different decisions (and decision making processes) based upon slight variations in the players available when the pick comes up.

What do you all think? Is this somewhere close to reality?

=====


I know this theory was already discussed two years ago at HF and some people have read it at that time, but this posting describes IMO the "layer" concept pretty good. Now to my arguments...

I don't think you should trade down if you think that Andrei Kastsitsyn is the best prospect left when it's your turn with the 10th pick but you have a gut feeling that most people have him ranked 3 or 4 places lower. Who's going to guarantee you that you're the only genial scout or GM? Maybe the Flyers want him with the 11th pick?

Of course, when you have some, let's say 5 or 6, players from the same layer to choose from and you don't really know who stands out of this group and someone approaches you for trading down five spots so that you can still choose one player from this layer, why not considering it.

But in the aforementioned scenario, take Kastsitsyn with the 10th pick. Maybe he's on a layer with 7 or 8 other guys for all other GMs, but if he's the best player for you at this spot, draft him. Same goes for Steve Bernier. Who cares if he's ranked as the 20th or even 30th pick in 10000 mock drafts. If you really want him, snap him as early as possible.

An other good example is Hugh Jessiman. The following link to piston's home underlines my point for taking guys before someone else gets a chance...

letsgokings.com/bbs/showthread.php?s=dd5341ffb6203d1b49df9e8c4ee770f4&threadid=33331

Most mock drafts beside of Red Line have Jessiman ranked between #15 or #20 but with this hint from Red Line, who's going to promise you that he's still available at #12, let alone at #20?


Have an ice day,

Dschens

[Yeti]

More from Dudley: Habs are not mentioned in rumors for the top pick.


"I've talked to [owner/team president Jordan Zimmerman] quite a bit lately and we have got the green light to get a couple players that we think we need."

So even if both those players make in the $2 million to $3 million range?

"We have unique needs," Dudley said. "They can't be just good players. They have to be good players with leadership qualities, and usually those players cost a little bit of money. So yes, we have the green light."

There's been speculation that Dallas has offered both Jason Arnott and Richard Matvichuk for the pick. While sources say Dudley has shown interest in both players, Dudley said the Stars haven't offered those players for the pick. It's believed Carolina, Pittsburgh and Boston have shown significant interest, as well as Philadelphia, which recently traded Roman Cechmanek, and Colorado, which lost Patrick Roy to retirement.

There's no doubt teams are scrambling to get Fleury, and that's driving up the price of the No. 1 pick.

But sources say the Islanders, ironically offering former Panther Mark Parrish in a package, are also in the mix because they're looking for an elite forward to develop alongside Alexei Yashin.

Dudley says he expects "the frenzy" to continue up until Saturday morning.

"It's going to be a wild, fun week," Dudley said.

www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-panther15jun15,0,4427764.story?coll=sfla-sports-headlines

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

Welcome, Dschens, and thanks for a very insightful post. That method of preparing for the draft makes excellent sense. And I personally would not shed a tear if the Habs end up drafting "Huge Specimen".

[MPLABBE]

Yeti said:

More from Dudley: Habs are not mentioned in rumors for the top pick.


"I've talked to [owner/team president Jordan Zimmerman] quite a bit lately and we have got the green light to get a couple players that we think we need."

So even if both those players make in the $2 million to $3 million range?

"We have unique needs," Dudley said. "They can't be just good players. They have to be good players with leadership qualities, and usually those players cost a little bit of money. So yes, we have the green light."

There's been speculation that Dallas has offered both Jason Arnott and Richard Matvichuk for the pick. While sources say Dudley has shown interest in both players, Dudley said the Stars haven't offered those players for the pick. It's believed Carolina, Pittsburgh and Boston have shown significant interest, as well as Philadelphia, which recently traded Roman Cechmanek, and Colorado, which lost Patrick Roy to retirement.

There's no doubt teams are scrambling to get Fleury, and that's driving up the price of the No. 1 pick.

But sources say the Islanders, ironically offering former Panther Mark Parrish in a package, are also in the mix because they're looking for an elite forward to develop alongside Alexei Yashin.

Dudley says he expects "the frenzy" to continue up until Saturday morning.

"It's going to be a wild, fun week," Dudley said.

www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-panther15jun15,0,4427764.story?coll=sfla-sports-headlines

that's good..how many Habs deals over the years have just come out of nowhere with no rumors before it? almost everyone as I recall

I'd bet about 5$ Dudley trades the pick...

[MPLABBE]

Here's the CP article that I found on TSN about the Panthers and other stuff:

www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story.asp?ID=44290&hubName=nhl

''"For me personally I think it's the deepest draft since the (Trevor) Linden, (Mike) Modano draft (in 1988)," Toronto Maple Leafs head amateur scout Barry Trapp said.''



here was the rest of that 88 draft:

www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1988e.html


pretty big names in there, eh?

and whatever happened to Jason Muzatti..he seemed like such a promissing prospect at one point

[seventeen]

I personally enjoyed Red Line's comment about Brian Boyle..."Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane."

[PTH]

Dschens, thx for bringing up that post. I remember it from my HF days, and I'm going to save it to be able to re-read it. I think it sums up the draft process pretty well.

What I'd add though, is that sometimes some players aren't all that well scouted. I think teams might not check out a lot of guys they don't see as being in their "layer". So if the draft works out in a strange way, and the guys they really scouted are gone, then the team usually trades down, since they might as well get an extra pick if they'll be guessing in any case.

[CLAN]

Matt said:

Let's take a quick look at our defence compared to Atlanta's

Top 2

Montreal
Andrei Markov - HT: 6-0 WT: 203 AGE: 24
2002-03: 79 13 24 37 +13

Craig Rivet - HT: 6-2 WT: 207 AGE: 28
2002-03: 82 7 15 22 +1

>>>V.S.<<<

Atlanta
Frantisek Kaberle - HT: 6-1 WT: 190 AGE: 29
2002-03: 79 7 19 26 -19

Daniel Tjarnqvist - HT: 6-2 WT: 195 AGE: 26
2002-03: 75 3 12 15 -20

Other

Montreal
Patrice Brisebois - HT: 6-2 WT: 196 AGE:32
2002-03: 73 4 25 29 -14

Stephane Quintal - HT: 6-3 WT: 234 AGE: 34
2002-03: 67 5 5 10 -4

Michael Komisarek - HT: 6-4 WT: 240 AGE: 21
2002-03: 21 0 1 1 -6

Karl Dykhuis - HT: 6-3 WT: 214 AGE: 30
2002-03: 65 1 4 5 -5

Patrick Traverse - HT: 6-4 WT: 208 AGE: 29
2002-03: 65 0 13 13 -9

Sheldon Souray - HT: 6-4 WT: 223 AGE: 26
2001-02: 34 3 5 8 -5

>>>V.S.<<<

Chris Tamer - HT: 6-2 WT: 205 AGE: 32
2002-03: 72 1 9 10 -10

Yannick Tremblay - HT: 6-2 WT: 200 AGE: 27
2002-03: 75 8 22 30 -27

Andy Sutton - HT: 6-6 WT: 245 AGE: 28
2002-03: 53 3 18 21 -8

Kirill Safronov - HT: 6-2 WT: 215 AGE: 22
2002-03: 32 2 2 4 -10

Mike Weaver - HT: 5-9 WT: 185 AGE: 25
2002-03: 40 0 5 5 -5

---

Uhm... the numbers don't tell the full story, but they also don't lie... Atlanta's defence is absolutely horrible, you say "with exception to Komisarek" our is... Well i think you're forgetting about Markov, Rivet and a healthy Souray who are all better than anyone on this Atlanta blue line, along with Brisebois and Quintal who are arguabely better aswell.[/quote

So if our d is SO much better than Atlanta's why did we only sqeek by in the season series 3 wins to 2 wins?]

[Yeti]

From the Buffalo News, a brief description of their scouting work for this year:


"The Sabres have spent thousands upon thousands of man hours scouting players for this year's draft. They have reports on more than 1,000 prospects - as many as 50 reports alone on some individuals - and have dissected skeins of video.

It's much different from the days when Punch Imlach and his assistants sat around the draft table and came up with some of the later-round picks basically off the tops of their heads.

"It was a lot of gut back then," Regier said. "I think we are becoming better at evaluating and drafting than we were in the past.

"The interview process, the testing process that wasn't there 10 years ago, is now there. Teams are now spending more time in and around the player, getting to know their situation on the team, the coach's views and opinions, the video on these kids. We spend a lot of time looking at footage.

"It's more in-depth. It's more thorough."

Yet the process remains far from foolproof.

"You can't say "OK, he scored X-number of goals in junior, so he's going to score X-number goals in the American League and X-number goals in the National League,' " Luce said.

"God, we wish it was like that. Then there'd be no mistakes."

[Dschens]

PTH said:

Dschens, thx for bringing up that post. I remember it from my HF days, and I'm going to save it to be able to re-read it. I think it sums up the draft process pretty well.

Well, it's nice to see that I can help you with my archive. Unfortunately the HF boards weren't that comfortable at that time as nowadays, so I don't have the whole thread, but at least one of the answers, namely yours.

What I'd add though, is that sometimes some players aren't all that well scouted. I think teams might not check out a lot of guys they don't see as being in their "layer".

It looks like you didn't change your mind in the meantime. Here's a little excerpt from your answer...

"This also explains why teams come to the draft with only about 60 names or so, they try to scout players from each layer."

What's your source for this or is it just a guess? I don't think that's a correct assumption and IMO the explanation in the last posting of Yeti describes this process much more better. As a result of the importance of sport in the world in these times, sport is essentially just a multi-million Euro (or Dollar) business. Love it, or hate it.
In view of that you should be prepared thorough for every part of the business. This means for the draft, having scouting reports and a layering for as much as possible players, as described in the aforementioned posting.

So if the draft works out in a strange way, and the guys they really scouted are gone, then the team usually trades down, since they might as well get an extra pick if they'll be guessing in any case.

Your scenario for trading down is not acceptable for me for the first three rounds at least. If a GM and his scouting stuff are already confused in these rounds, they should be looking for another job. And after these three rounds it's just looking for the diamond in the rough.

Another quote from your answer of yore:

The theory also explains some draft-day manoeuverings - last year MTL traded a 2nd rounder for a 3d, 4th and 5th rounder, they obviously thought that the layer they had reached was full of similar players, so they traded down to get more than 1 player from the same layer, instead. Anaheim, who made the deal, obviously thought there was still 1 guy who was worth making the sacrifice for, a guy who must have been towards the very end of his layer.

That's of course a good reason for trading down.

Dschens

[M. Beaux-Eaux]

"He's a great kid off the ice," Sutter said, "but he's got that arrogance you like to see in a player, that roosteriness. He's very respectful, but he's a kid that, when he comes to the rink, plays on the edge. He plays for keeps."

"I'd agree with that [description]," Phaneuf told chicagoblackhawks.com by phone Monday, "because I like to be a player who guys hate to play against. That's the way you have to be if you want that reputation."

- Phaneuf already! Here's more about Dion.

[MPLABBE]

mr said:

"He's a great kid off the ice," Sutter said, "but he's got that arrogance you like to see in a player, that roosteriness. He's very respectful, but he's a kid that, when he comes to the rink, plays on the edge. He plays for keeps."

a tougher, western Canadian Ron Hainsey?


or just a arrogant and c0cky on the ice but not off the ice as well?

[JFM]

I don't know why, but I have a bad feeling that they'll pick Getzlaf at #10. It would be the "typical" safe Hab 1st pick. I hope I'm wrong and they select someone with more of a "home run" upside. I'm really hoping for either Parise or Phaneuf to be available at 10. Only 6 days left!