Draft possibilities

[seventeen]

This may be too early, but I am in a quandary as to what the Habs should do in this years draft. Here's an article with an opinion, though I don't necessarily agree with it.

www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=139

Breaking Down Habs Draft Needs


Pardon me as I skip on a boring Trade Deadline Day breakdown for you and instead to all of our attention to the most exciting and interesting question in Habs land, what does this team need at the draft and who should they pursue?

Taking a quick look back at the 2011 draft, here is an overview of the draft odds heading into last summer's draft, followed by the actual order and picks:

2011 Draft Odds:

#1) Edmonton Oilers - 48.2% - 62 points
#2) Colorado Avalanche -18.8% - 68 points
#3) Florida Panthers - 14.2% - 72 points
#4) New York Islanders - 10.7% - 73 points
#5) Ottawa Senators - 8.1% - 74 points

2011 Draft Order:

#1) Edmonton Oilers - C - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
#2) Colorado Avalanche - W - Gabriel Landeskog
#3) Florida Panthers - C - Jonathan Huberdeau
#4)**New Jersey Devils - D - Adam Larsson
#5) New York Islanders - C - Ryan Strome
#6) Ottawa Senators - C - Mike Zibanejad

Taking into account that no team can move up more than 4 spots in the draft lottery while falling no more than one spot in the rankings, it's amazing to note that the Devils were as fortunate as they were in vaulting to the 4th overall pick and getting to select Adam Larsson.

Other than that surprise jump, the draft order played out much as it was expected to.

Digesting last year's draft, and the fact that 4 of the top 6 picks were centermen, something that should certainly catch the eye of Montreal Canadiens fans, we fast-forward to this season, the current standings and the high probability that Montreal will be using a top 5 pick this summer.

Current Standings

#30) Columbus Blue Jackets - 43 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 56 points)
#29) Edmonton Oilers - 56 points in 62 games (projected to finish with 74 points)
#28) Montreal Canadiens - 58 points in 64 games (projected to finish with 74 points)
#27) New York Islanders - 61 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 79 points)
#26) Carolina Hurricanes - 61 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 79 points)

Based on how things have gone this season, there's clearly no possible way to supplant the Blue Jackets for the 1st overall pick, yet projected to finish tied with the Oilers for the second fewest points in the NHL, the Habs may very well be eyeing the most lucrative pick in franchise history.

Holding back your excitement, before deciding who the Canadiens should draft this summer it's key to evaluate what their pipeline has in store for them in the near future.

While grabbing the best possible player is clearly always the preferred method of operating at the draft, the truth is that with certain positions well stocked, the Canadiens may be better suited to pursuing their true needs to round out what may prove to a be competitive lineup in the next few years.

With that in mind, here's a look at most of Montreal's noteworthy prospects:

Habs Prospect Depth:

Left Wingers:

- Blake Geoffrion
- Marc MacMillan
- Olivier Archambault
- Andrew Conboy
- Philippe Lefebvre
- Robert Slaney

Right Wingers:

- Danny Kristo
- Brendan Gallagher
- Patrick Holland
- Aaron Palushaj
- Alex Avitsin
- Steve Qualier
- Alain Berger
- Ian Schultz

Center:

- Louis Leblanc
- Michael Bournival
- Andreas Enqvist
- Joonas Nattinen
- Daniel Prybl

Defensemen:

- Nathan Bealieu
- Jarred Tinordi
- Brendan Nash
- Morgan Ellis
- Greg Pateryn
- Darren Dietz
- Mac Bennett

Goaltenders:

- No significant depth to mention.

As you can see, Montreal has done a decent job at stocking the wing, center and blue line with some exciting up and coming talent. Given the rosters current exciting youth, there's reason to believe that the Canadiens have room to maneuver with their selection.

Now, though the pipeline has some premium defensemen and a couple of exciting offensive prospects on the wing, the underlying fact is that there are no clear cut #1 centers on their way, nor any help between the pipes.

And while having no noteworthy prospects in nets is concerning, with Carey Price set to tend the fort for the Canadiens for the foreseeable future, there's not necessarily much pressure on them to draft an elite goaltender.

Moving on, considering the potential of a Top 5 pick, let alone a Top 3 pick, what Montreal needs to focus on is tempering the need to draft the best possible player with what the team now needs.

Standout Needs:

You can never have too many quality defensemen. Ask the Predators.

Beyond that, the truth is that Montreal needs a clear-cut #1 centerman.

So, in considering this year's draft, should the Canadiens go all out to make sure they land one of the two centermen in the Top 10, or should they go for even more?

My take is that with 3 picks in the first 2 rounds this year, and 4 in the first 2 rounds of next year's draft, Montreal may want to take advantage of their opportunity this year.

With 5 second round picks in the next two years, would it not be in the Canadiens best interest to consider trading all 3 extra second round picks to assure they land two Top 10 assets in this year's draft?

With Carey Price, Max Pacioretty and PK Subban all under the age of 25, Montreal's "new image" is already in place. Moving forward with this group and insulating them for success is now the next step.

To achieve that, there's no doubt that those 7 picks in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts must be used.

Using them all to draft players would certainly be of benefit to the Canadiens, but it would it not benefit the Habs top 3 players and the team's chances for success.

Adding another pick in this year's Top 10 should be the team's top priority.

Rather than adding a plethora of assets over the next two year's, the Canadiens will have the opportunity to use their high pick and, if they have any forward thinking left in the tank, trade a combination of some of their quality assets and any of those 5 second round picks to land another Top 10 pick.

Adding two elite prospects, likely worthy of making the NHL next season would push the Habs in to a position of power.

Insulating Price, Subban and Pacioretty with another top end defender and elite forward, or even two elite forwards (given the glut of strong young dmen: Gorges, Emelin, Subban, Tinordi, Bealieu, etc...) would allow Montreal to take two strong steps forward in one year, realigning their hopes to be successful with this young core.

Tipping the scales in favor of taking that risk this year is the fact that Montreal will not aim for another high pick next year, they're going right back to shooting for the playoffs.

So, since this chance doesn't come up all that often, coupled with the glut of picks, prospects and increased cap space, this year's draft marks Montreal's strongest opportunity to pull off what would truly be a coup.

The thought of holding out for next year's draft is interesting, though it does nothing to waste another year of Price, Subban and Pacioretty's burgeoning impacts.

Weighing the risk/reward of this idea, here is a rundown of the current Top 10 projected picks for the upcoming 2012 draft.


2012 Draft Rankings: Top 10 Prospects


1. Neil Yakupov (5'11, 189lbs) - W - Sarnia Sting - 37GP/30G/35A/65PTS/26PIM

- Likely up to Columbus as to whether he goes anywhere else, the Habs would never turn down a player of Yakupov's ilk, though - as mentioned above - with quality wingers on the roster and in the pipeline, he doesn't fit the bill of Montreal's top end priorities.

2. Mikhail Grigorenko (6'3, 200lbs) - C - Quebec Remparts - 57GP/37G/41A/78PTS/8PIM

- He's used to playing in Quebec, so playing in Montreal wouldn't be too much of a difference, though as many have made note of, despite being immensely talented, Grigorenko hasn't assured the world he will be a sure thing. Noted to float at times or perform better against weaker clubs, there seems to be a higher risk tagged to choosing Grigorenko. That said, with the Ovechkin/Malkin comparisons flying around and with the reality of Grigorenko fitting the bill, big offensive center with #1 potential, he does project to be of great interest to the Habs. Considering the Jackets may prefer to grab a center over a winger, and that the Oilers are slated to challenge Montreal for potentially landing the #2 pick, it could be interesting to see how it plays out.

- The assessment here is that he's a risky pick, and if Montreal goes after him it would make all the more sense to add security in the form of another Top 10 pick.

3. Ryan Murray (6'1, 201lbs) - D - Everett Silvertips - 36GP/8G/16A/24PTS/29PIM

- Likely of highest interest to the Oilers, it wouldn't hurt the Habs to snag another elite dman like Murray. If anything, adding another Top 10 pick would allow them to draft another defender. And though I have already mentioned the glut of assets they already possess, if we have learned anything from the past few seasons, it's that you can never have too many elite defensemen.

4. Filip Forsberg (6'2, 181lbs) - LW - Leksand - 39GP/8G/7A/15PTS/33PIM

- A very exciting prospect, yet not a center. Either way, Forsberg is big, already plays with men (and holds his own) and has elite offensive abilities. Responsible for a high end forward, the Canadiens wouldn't hurt themselves by landing the big Swede, though it wouldn't directly address that need for a #1 centerman.

5. Matt Dumba (6'0, 183 lbs) - D - Red Deer Rebels - 59GP/17G/28A/45PTS/57PIM

- A mix of aggressive play and offensive skill, Dumba is as enticing as Murray is in terms of stocking the cupboard on D. Hard to gauge how much of a difference it would make landing any of the defenders projected to go in this Top 10, Montreal would likely be best served by a Top 5 blue liner than a Top 10.

6. Jacob Trouba (6'2, 196lbs) - D - USA U-18 - 32GP/6G/13A/19PTS/PIM N/A

- Like Dumba, Trouba fits in as an asset most any team could use. Size, presence and a potential to contribute on the scoresheet from time-to-time, it certainly wouldn't hurt to add him to the likes of Beaulieu and Tinordi.

7. Alex Galchenyuk (6'1, 198lbs) - C - Sarnia Sting - 0GP/0G/0A/0PTS/0PIM (2010-11 Totals: 68GP/31G/52A/83PTS/52PIM)

- The most intriguing and exciting prospect out there, Galchenyuk is a gifted offensive center, but has missed the entire year due to ACL surgery. A teammate of Yakupov's, and someone he looks up to, Galchenyuk's status projected 7th overall pick in this year's draft tells us that he's as talented as they come. He has size, and expectations are he will maintain his speed when he returns, so while there's a lot of excitement around the other forwards in this Top 10, he is the most intriguing.

- Health is the biggest concern here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Habs watch Galchenyuk's return with the Sting very closely.

8. Morgan Rielly (6'0, 190lbs) - D - Moose Jaw Warriors - 18GP/3G/15A/18PTS/2PIM

- Regarded as the top offensive prospect among Top 10 blue liners, Morgan Rielly would bring more punch from the blue line on offense, though with so many offensively oriented blue liners in Montreal's system, you have to wonder if insulating players like Emelin and Tinordi, bigger more physical defenders, won't be more interesting?

9. Griffin Reinhart (6'4, 207lbs) - D - Edmonton Oil Kings - 49GP/12G/19A/31PTS/32PIM

- Reinhart fits the bill of a big, bruising dman that would add to Emelin and Tinordi. Size is not an issue and while not bereft of offensive abilities, his focus is clearly on being a presence in his own end.

10. Radek Faksa (6'3, 202lbs) - C - Kitchener Rangers - 53GP/23G/32A/55PTS/39PIM

- An exciting player with size and clear offensive ability, Faksa could prove to be a real steal. Although he is projected to go at the tail end of the Top 10, he fits everything the Canadiens need in their #1 centerman. Though the Habs are staring at a Top 5 pick, if they could land another Top 10 pick, there'd be no reason not consider adding him.



Summary


Playing their cards the right way, the option exists that the Montreal Canadiens could land another Top 10 pick this year, in turn giving themselves the chance to have two elite rookies crack the team next year.

It's what all fans want to see and if done properly, the additions would be of greatest benefit to the young core that represents Montreal's future hope.

To be sure, it's going to be a long March in Montreal, but with assets and options aplenty sitting before them this summer, the Montreal Canadiens have an extraordinary opportunity to turn things around faster than most think.

Finally, the lynch-pin or crux of this situation lies in who gets to make those calls moving forward.

Though I have presented an exciting and quite possible scenario, the decisions regarding who makes these decisions still have to be made.

And while that is a debate unto itself, the real hope should be that whoever winds up in the Habs GM chair this June feels the same way about turning this glut of draft picks into assets that the team can use as soon as next season.

I don't disagree that they should look at picking up another top 10 pick by trading some of their second rounders, if they can find a sucker, I mean a partner. If you can't get Yakupov, there are too many questions around Grigorenko to make me feel comfortable. Also, I have this gut feeling that it may be worthwhile to take a chance on Galchenyuk and hope that knee surgery went well. He seems to have more of what Grigor has and only the injury is keeping him from going higher. Assuming we draft 3rd or 4th and the two Russians are gone, I'd be very happy with one of Murray or Dumba and Galchenyuk or Forsberg. Not that I know much about any of the 4, except for having seen Murray at the Worlds, where he was very dependable. (That wasn't him that had that first Russian goal bounce off his butt into the net, was it?). But all four have some size, can skate and have decent potential. Another quality d-man to join Gorges, PK, Emelin, Tinordi and Beaulieu would be quite something. Our 5/6 pairing would be better than most 3/4's.

[Boston_Habs]

You REALLY don't want to mess up this pick. It's not very often you get a top 5 pick, but we don't seem to have the best luck when it comes to timing. We drafted Price #5 overall in a weak draft, and I remember Terry Ryan at #8 overall in 1995 in another clunker of a draft (although we passed on Jarome Iginla). When was the last time we had a top 3 pick? Doug Wickenheiser?

A lot depends on who's in charge. If Patrick Roy comes in here and he has a high opinion of Grigorenko, then I can't see us not picking him if he's available. Even if Roy isn't in the picture, I'm sure he will provide a lot of insight into the player and, just as important, his character level.

Other than Yakupov, who will almost certainly go #1, I think Ryan Murray is probably the safest "can't miss" player near the top of the draft. He would be a safe pick, but risky if we end up taking him over Grigorenko. There will be pressure to take an offensive player given our lack of high end forward talent.

The Galchenyuk thing just looks too risky, unless we decide to trade down to get him.

[blny]

In a thin draft, you might find people willing to trade down, but I don't necessarily think it's the time to sell off all the second rounders for another first - even if it's in the top ten. Next year would be a better time for that imo.

A recent report from Bob McKenzie indicates that Grigorenko may be less of a risk than previously though. Yakupov is your clear number one, but Grigorenko has done the little things, and bought in to Roy's teaching. He's becoming more of a complete player, and has narrowed the gap between one and two this season. Another thing to keep in mind is that Yakupov is playing his second CHL season, while Grigorenko is playing in his first.

If we don't get the second pick via the lottery, I'd be trying very hard to trade up for him. Dumba and Murray are nice defensive prospects. Either would be fine, but it's not what we need to most. Gaunce looks like a second line center at best, and more likely a third line checking center. I don't like using first rounders on that sort of player.

The Oilers are in dire need of elite defenders that can move the puck and create offense. I watched their game against the Stars last night. Commentators discussed the Oilers need for help in this area, and after watching closely this is clearly the case. They stall out in their own end a lot. No one really can carry the puck out on their own. Lots of "you take it" passes. They should be looking hard at addressing this need. If they slide in front of us, they're primed to be an ideal trade partner.

[PTH]

Of course, it all depends on what some scouts see in these guys....

All pre-draft talk is based on needs and position, but we all know that it's "best player available", and that opinions vary.

Maybe Edmonton passes on Grigorenko at #2 if their scouts just don't like the guy for some reason. It happens.

Sidenote: I always thought that Edmonton out-bluffed us in 2002 and got us to cough up a pick to flip picks with them (and the picks were consecutive)... OK, it was just an 8th rounder, but still... somehow they knew we wanted Higgins badly.

[PTH]

Mar 3, 2012 11:32:23 GMT -5 blny said:

In a thin draft, you might find people willing to trade down, but I don't necessarily think it's the time to sell off all the second rounders for another first - even if it's in the top ten. Next year would be a better time for that imo.

The other option is to be the team trading down.... say our scouts think the guy they like will be there at #20, and that the difference between him and the next couple of guys isn't big, maybe you trade down to get some assets. If someone else is very interested, you can get some nice picks just by trading down.

For example, going from 16th to 12th in 2005 cost NYR #41.

If we're #3, and our scouts think there's no one head and shoulders above the others, we need to consider trading down, maybe multiple times, and add serious depth to our drafting.

And basically, the more picks you have, the better luck you'll have at the draft.

Of course, trading down isn't "sexy", it's easier to sell a highly-prized prospect to sell tickets and a bright future, than to sell a number of no-names, but the no-names can be better over time.

[blny]

Yes, trading down is an option worth considering. The defenders in the top ten really require the splitting of hairs to find who's better than the next. Given our need for high end talent at center, if the club is one or two spots away from being able to get it you have to try. Candid conversations between GMs often reveal who is on their list. Because Edmonton really needs help on D, I think they're prime to be a trade partner.

[BadCompany]

So basically, if I'm getting the gist of the article right, trade five second rounders for a top ten pick? Or trade some combination of our developing prospects (the highly sought after ones undoubtedly, we are talking about a top 10 pick) and those picks?

It's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure I would have the gumption to do it. You'd have to be REALLY sure that the guy you are getting in the top 10 is going to be an above average player in the NHL, preferably a star (if only a minor one). Because that's a lot of assets to give up. I could see doing it if some guy you have up there is falling for some reason, but otherwise I think I would pass.

There are two kinds of a paths we could take; get the higher pick path, and as PTH suggest, accumulate more assets pick. Frankly speaking (as opposed to franco speaking), I think we're rather set up to do both right now, with no real need to get too cute. That we are going to get a top 10 pick seems to be a given now, and with five second rounder seem well poised to stock the cupboards for the next decade. Personally I am of the belief that winning breeds winning, and that if you can have a dominant AHL club you'll be graduating a bunch of kids who come with high organizational standards. Even if most of those kids don't make the NHL they can insulate the kids that do. Plus it makes it so much easier to do everything else, be it hire AHL coaches, scouts, college free agents, what have you, if you are perceived as a winning organization. Who wouldn't want to pad their resume with a championship team? Look at the way Pierre McGuire continuously flogs his "assistant coach for the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins" background.

Eventually that just trickles on up to the NHL level too.

In Trevor we trust, I guess. But I'd be inclined to keep the picks and take the single top 10 pick. Unless Timmins thinks he's got a homerun sitting on the table I'd rather take my chances with all those extra selections.

[blny]

I don't think we need to trade all our second round picks to move up, or get another first round pick. Getting another top ten pick might cost too much. Any team willing to trade will likely want our seconds from 2013 as that draft is perceived to be deeper.

[Boston_Habs]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Edmonton take Ryan Murray with the #2 pick, if that's how it unfolds. In that scenario we are sitting at #3 with Grigorenko still on the board.

Not sure this is the draft to try and move up in by dealing our 2nd rounders. It's not like the epic 2003 draft where the 1st round was littered with elite players. There are lots of very good players who have been picked in the 2nd round if you do your homework.

[BadCompany]

Mar 3, 2012 13:52:43 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Edmonton take Ryan Murray with the #2 pick, if that's how it unfolds. In that scenario we are sitting at #3 with Grigorenko still on the board.

Not sure this is the draft to try and move up in by dealing our 2nd rounders. It's not like the epic 2003 draft where the 1st round was littered with elite players. There are lots of very good players who have been picked in the 2nd round if you do your homework.

The second round of that 2003 draft was pretty spectacular too:

Forwards: Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes (along with Max Lapierre, Dan Fritsche, BJ Crombeen, Patrick O'Sullivan and a few others who are borderline NHLers)

Defense: Shea Weber, Matt Carle, Kevin Klein

Goalie: Jimmy Howard, Corey Crawford

[PTH]

Mar 3, 2012 12:48:40 GMT -5 blny said:

Candid conversations between GMs often reveal who is on their list.

How do you know this ? Not trying to be argumentative, just want to know if it's your opinion or if you've got a specific reason for thinking this.

Because Edmonton really needs help on D, I think they're prime to be a trade partner.

Perhaps. Maybe this can be like 2002 and 2003 where there was some jostling at the very top come draft day (and thereabouts).

[blny]

Mar 3, 2012 14:21:43 GMT -5 PTH said:

Mar 3, 2012 12:48:40 GMT -5 blny said:

Candid conversations between GMs often reveal who is on their list.

How do you know this ? Not trying to be argumentative, just want to know if it's your opinion or if you've got a specific reason for thinking this.

Because Edmonton really needs help on D, I think they're prime to be a trade partner.

Perhaps. Maybe this can be like 2002 and 2003 where there was some jostling at the very top come draft day (and thereabouts).

You can see them talking at the draft. They gauge interest in certain players. GMs with good relationships have been known to share information (according to stories I've read and interviews heard).

[seventeen]

No way I'd trade all the 2nd rounders to move up unless a Stamkos was at stake. No, I was thinking a couple of this years plus a Weber or Kristo or Ellis to move up wher you might get a Galchenyuk or Derrick Pouliot (a guy I like for D). I want to keep next years picks.

[Lord Bebop]

I'm thinking we've been looking for a superstar forward for like 30 to 40 years so i don't think our pick will be going anywhere unless we get a superstar forward coming back in the trade. I expect Mikhail Grigorenko ,Neil Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk will be a Canadien soon enough depending where we finish in the standing and draft lottery. Both guys are risks but we desperately need that one game changing forward........ and being a center is a huge bonus.

I understand trading down for more picks may be safer but this should be our year we get the gamebreaker we lacked since Guy Lafleur.

IMO anyway

[blny]

Of the three Russians, I think health concerns make Galchenyuk the biggest risk. He's by no means lacking of talent though. Most scouts feel he'd be #3, or better, if he had been able to play this year. He's got decent size at 6'1 and 198lbs.

I think all three are going to be very good pros. It would be very hard to pass on Yakupov, but I think Grigorenko is still the player and position we need to address the most.

[PTH]

Of course, in the year leading up to the draft, a lof of things tend to change.

I know Samsonov was seen as a potential 1st overall picks, for example, a year before his draft...

[blny]

At one point Sergei was a good player. He went down hill fast though. Nail could be a similar player, but his willingness to go to dirty areas and play a hard game makes me think he's more Datsyuk than Samsonov. He's got a compete level that I'm not sure Samsonov ever had.

[PTH]

Mar 4, 2012 17:32:50 GMT -5 blny said:

At one point Sergei was a good player. He went down hill fast though. Nail could be a similar player, but his willingness to go to dirty areas and play a hard game makes me think he's more Datsyuk than Samsonov. He's got a compete level that I'm not sure Samsonov ever had.

I was actually referring to the guy who's been hurt all year and whose name I don't want to totally mis-spell.... who knows where he'd be rated had he played ? He could still be a top 5 pick, but maybe he'd have dropped off the face of the earth. It happens.

Keith Tkachuk was hurt in his draft year and went later, but I remember a guy in 1997 or so who was expected to be top 15 or so, and dropped to the 3d round or something....

I think drafting a guy who hasn't played in a year implies huge risk. Though in a thin draft, maybe it's worth a shot. Not in the top 5 though, IMO.

[blny]

Ahhh Galchenyuk. He's certainly talented. He's still projected to go top ten. If I had a second top ten, maybe. The plethora of defenders, and his injury could see him drop some.

[BadCompany]

Mar 4, 2012 18:59:27 GMT -5 PTH said:

I was actually referring to the guy who's been hurt all year and whose name I don't want to totally mis-spell.... who knows where he'd be rated had he played ? He could still be a top 5 pick, but maybe he'd have dropped off the face of the earth. It happens.

Keith Tkachuk was hurt in his draft year and went later, but I remember a guy in 1997 or so who was expected to be top 15 or so, and dropped to the 3d round or something....

I think drafting a guy who hasn't played in a year implies huge risk. Though in a thin draft, maybe it's worth a shot. Not in the top 5 though, IMO.

Two years ago Brett Connolly was drafted 6th overall despite having only played 16 games all year, missing most of the year with what was feared to be a degenerative hip problem. He's currently in the NHL. Then there was Adrian Foster, who the Devils drafted in 2001, 28th overall, who had played a mere five games that year, after having played a mere seven games the year before. I remember that draft well (or at least that part of it) because Foster wasn't even on the draft list and they had to hold everything up while they tried to figure out who this kid was. He busted in a big way in a serious case of "too-cute-by-far".

I don't think AG (I don't want to screw up the spelling either) is that bad, but it's still a concern. According to the blog he has over on NHL.com he's still hoping to come back this season, which would really solidify his draft standing, if you ask me.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Mar 3, 2012 0:49:13 GMT -5 seventeen said:

This may be too early, but I am in a quandary as to what the Habs should do in this years draft. Here's an article with an opinion, though I don't necessarily agree with it.

www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=139

Breaking Down Habs Draft Needs


Pardon me as I skip on a boring Trade Deadline Day breakdown for you and instead to all of our attention to the most exciting and interesting question in Habs land, what does this team need at the draft and who should they pursue?

Taking a quick look back at the 2011 draft, here is an overview of the draft odds heading into last summer's draft, followed by the actual order and picks:

2011 Draft Odds:

#1) Edmonton Oilers - 48.2% - 62 points
#2) Colorado Avalanche -18.8% - 68 points
#3) Florida Panthers - 14.2% - 72 points
#4) New York Islanders - 10.7% - 73 points
#5) Ottawa Senators - 8.1% - 74 points

2011 Draft Order:

#1) Edmonton Oilers - C - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
#2) Colorado Avalanche - W - Gabriel Landeskog
#3) Florida Panthers - C - Jonathan Huberdeau
#4)**New Jersey Devils - D - Adam Larsson
#5) New York Islanders - C - Ryan Strome
#6) Ottawa Senators - C - Mike Zibanejad

Taking into account that no team can move up more than 4 spots in the draft lottery while falling no more than one spot in the rankings, it's amazing to note that the Devils were as fortunate as they were in vaulting to the 4th overall pick and getting to select Adam Larsson.

Other than that surprise jump, the draft order played out much as it was expected to.

Digesting last year's draft, and the fact that 4 of the top 6 picks were centermen, something that should certainly catch the eye of Montreal Canadiens fans, we fast-forward to this season, the current standings and the high probability that Montreal will be using a top 5 pick this summer.

Current Standings

#30) Columbus Blue Jackets - 43 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 56 points)
#29) Edmonton Oilers - 56 points in 62 games (projected to finish with 74 points)
#28) Montreal Canadiens - 58 points in 64 games (projected to finish with 74 points)
#27) New York Islanders - 61 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 79 points)
#26) Carolina Hurricanes - 61 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 79 points)

Based on how things have gone this season, there's clearly no possible way to supplant the Blue Jackets for the 1st overall pick, yet projected to finish tied with the Oilers for the second fewest points in the NHL, the Habs may very well be eyeing the most lucrative pick in franchise history.

Holding back your excitement, before deciding who the Canadiens should draft this summer it's key to evaluate what their pipeline has in store for them in the near future.

While grabbing the best possible player is clearly always the preferred method of operating at the draft, the truth is that with certain positions well stocked, the Canadiens may be better suited to pursuing their true needs to round out what may prove to a be competitive lineup in the next few years.

With that in mind, here's a look at most of Montreal's noteworthy prospects:

Habs Prospect Depth:

Left Wingers:

- Blake Geoffrion
- Marc MacMillan
- Olivier Archambault
- Andrew Conboy
- Philippe Lefebvre
- Robert Slaney

Right Wingers:

- Danny Kristo
- Brendan Gallagher
- Patrick Holland
- Aaron Palushaj
- Alex Avitsin
- Steve Qualier
- Alain Berger
- Ian Schultz

Center:

- Louis Leblanc
- Michael Bournival
- Andreas Enqvist
- Joonas Nattinen
- Daniel Prybl

Defensemen:

- Nathan Bealieu
- Jarred Tinordi
- Brendan Nash
- Morgan Ellis
- Greg Pateryn
- Darren Dietz
- Mac Bennett

Goaltenders:

- No significant depth to mention.

As you can see, Montreal has done a decent job at stocking the wing, center and blue line with some exciting up and coming talent. Given the rosters current exciting youth, there's reason to believe that the Canadiens have room to maneuver with their selection.

Now, though the pipeline has some premium defensemen and a couple of exciting offensive prospects on the wing, the underlying fact is that there are no clear cut #1 centers on their way, nor any help between the pipes.

And while having no noteworthy prospects in nets is concerning, with Carey Price set to tend the fort for the Canadiens for the foreseeable future, there's not necessarily much pressure on them to draft an elite goaltender.

Moving on, considering the potential of a Top 5 pick, let alone a Top 3 pick, what Montreal needs to focus on is tempering the need to draft the best possible player with what the team now needs.

Standout Needs:

You can never have too many quality defensemen. Ask the Predators.

Beyond that, the truth is that Montreal needs a clear-cut #1 centerman.

So, in considering this year's draft, should the Canadiens go all out to make sure they land one of the two centermen in the Top 10, or should they go for even more?

My take is that with 3 picks in the first 2 rounds this year, and 4 in the first 2 rounds of next year's draft, Montreal may want to take advantage of their opportunity this year.

With 5 second round picks in the next two years, would it not be in the Canadiens best interest to consider trading all 3 extra second round picks to assure they land two Top 10 assets in this year's draft?

With Carey Price, Max Pacioretty and PK Subban all under the age of 25, Montreal's "new image" is already in place. Moving forward with this group and insulating them for success is now the next step.

To achieve that, there's no doubt that those 7 picks in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts must be used.

Using them all to draft players would certainly be of benefit to the Canadiens, but it would it not benefit the Habs top 3 players and the team's chances for success.

Adding another pick in this year's Top 10 should be the team's top priority.

Rather than adding a plethora of assets over the next two year's, the Canadiens will have the opportunity to use their high pick and, if they have any forward thinking left in the tank, trade a combination of some of their quality assets and any of those 5 second round picks to land another Top 10 pick.

Adding two elite prospects, likely worthy of making the NHL next season would push the Habs in to a position of power.

Insulating Price, Subban and Pacioretty with another top end defender and elite forward, or even two elite forwards (given the glut of strong young dmen: Gorges, Emelin, Subban, Tinordi, Bealieu, etc...) would allow Montreal to take two strong steps forward in one year, realigning their hopes to be successful with this young core.

Tipping the scales in favor of taking that risk this year is the fact that Montreal will not aim for another high pick next year, they're going right back to shooting for the playoffs.

So, since this chance doesn't come up all that often, coupled with the glut of picks, prospects and increased cap space, this year's draft marks Montreal's strongest opportunity to pull off what would truly be a coup.

The thought of holding out for next year's draft is interesting, though it does nothing to waste another year of Price, Subban and Pacioretty's burgeoning impacts.

Weighing the risk/reward of this idea, here is a rundown of the current Top 10 projected picks for the upcoming 2012 draft.


2012 Draft Rankings: Top 10 Prospects


1. Neil Yakupov (5'11, 189lbs) - W - Sarnia Sting - 37GP/30G/35A/65PTS/26PIM

- Likely up to Columbus as to whether he goes anywhere else, the Habs would never turn down a player of Yakupov's ilk, though - as mentioned above - with quality wingers on the roster and in the pipeline, he doesn't fit the bill of Montreal's top end priorities.

2. Mikhail Grigorenko (6'3, 200lbs) - C - Quebec Remparts - 57GP/37G/41A/78PTS/8PIM

- He's used to playing in Quebec, so playing in Montreal wouldn't be too much of a difference, though as many have made note of, despite being immensely talented, Grigorenko hasn't assured the world he will be a sure thing. Noted to float at times or perform better against weaker clubs, there seems to be a higher risk tagged to choosing Grigorenko. That said, with the Ovechkin/Malkin comparisons flying around and with the reality of Grigorenko fitting the bill, big offensive center with #1 potential, he does project to be of great interest to the Habs. Considering the Jackets may prefer to grab a center over a winger, and that the Oilers are slated to challenge Montreal for potentially landing the #2 pick, it could be interesting to see how it plays out.

- The assessment here is that he's a risky pick, and if Montreal goes after him it would make all the more sense to add security in the form of another Top 10 pick.

3. Ryan Murray (6'1, 201lbs) - D - Everett Silvertips - 36GP/8G/16A/24PTS/29PIM

- Likely of highest interest to the Oilers, it wouldn't hurt the Habs to snag another elite dman like Murray. If anything, adding another Top 10 pick would allow them to draft another defender. And though I have already mentioned the glut of assets they already possess, if we have learned anything from the past few seasons, it's that you can never have too many elite defensemen.

4. Filip Forsberg (6'2, 181lbs) - LW - Leksand - 39GP/8G/7A/15PTS/33PIM

- A very exciting prospect, yet not a center. Either way, Forsberg is big, already plays with men (and holds his own) and has elite offensive abilities. Responsible for a high end forward, the Canadiens wouldn't hurt themselves by landing the big Swede, though it wouldn't directly address that need for a #1 centerman.

5. Matt Dumba (6'0, 183 lbs) - D - Red Deer Rebels - 59GP/17G/28A/45PTS/57PIM

- A mix of aggressive play and offensive skill, Dumba is as enticing as Murray is in terms of stocking the cupboard on D. Hard to gauge how much of a difference it would make landing any of the defenders projected to go in this Top 10, Montreal would likely be best served by a Top 5 blue liner than a Top 10.

6. Jacob Trouba (6'2, 196lbs) - D - USA U-18 - 32GP/6G/13A/19PTS/PIM N/A

- Like Dumba, Trouba fits in as an asset most any team could use. Size, presence and a potential to contribute on the scoresheet from time-to-time, it certainly wouldn't hurt to add him to the likes of Beaulieu and Tinordi.

7. Alex Galchenyuk (6'1, 198lbs) - C - Sarnia Sting - 0GP/0G/0A/0PTS/0PIM (2010-11 Totals: 68GP/31G/52A/83PTS/52PIM)

- The most intriguing and exciting prospect out there, Galchenyuk is a gifted offensive center, but has missed the entire year due to ACL surgery. A teammate of Yakupov's, and someone he looks up to, Galchenyuk's status projected 7th overall pick in this year's draft tells us that he's as talented as they come. He has size, and expectations are he will maintain his speed when he returns, so while there's a lot of excitement around the other forwards in this Top 10, he is the most intriguing.

- Health is the biggest concern here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Habs watch Galchenyuk's return with the Sting very closely.

8. Morgan Rielly (6'0, 190lbs) - D - Moose Jaw Warriors - 18GP/3G/15A/18PTS/2PIM

- Regarded as the top offensive prospect among Top 10 blue liners, Morgan Rielly would bring more punch from the blue line on offense, though with so many offensively oriented blue liners in Montreal's system, you have to wonder if insulating players like Emelin and Tinordi, bigger more physical defenders, won't be more interesting?

9. Griffin Reinhart (6'4, 207lbs) - D - Edmonton Oil Kings - 49GP/12G/19A/31PTS/32PIM

- Reinhart fits the bill of a big, bruising dman that would add to Emelin and Tinordi. Size is not an issue and while not bereft of offensive abilities, his focus is clearly on being a presence in his own end.

10. Radek Faksa (6'3, 202lbs) - C - Kitchener Rangers - 53GP/23G/32A/55PTS/39PIM

- An exciting player with size and clear offensive ability, Faksa could prove to be a real steal. Although he is projected to go at the tail end of the Top 10, he fits everything the Canadiens need in their #1 centerman. Though the Habs are staring at a Top 5 pick, if they could land another Top 10 pick, there'd be no reason not consider adding him.



Summary


Playing their cards the right way, the option exists that the Montreal Canadiens could land another Top 10 pick this year, in turn giving themselves the chance to have two elite rookies crack the team next year.

It's what all fans want to see and if done properly, the additions would be of greatest benefit to the young core that represents Montreal's future hope.

To be sure, it's going to be a long March in Montreal, but with assets and options aplenty sitting before them this summer, the Montreal Canadiens have an extraordinary opportunity to turn things around faster than most think.

Finally, the lynch-pin or crux of this situation lies in who gets to make those calls moving forward.

Though I have presented an exciting and quite possible scenario, the decisions regarding who makes these decisions still have to be made.

And while that is a debate unto itself, the real hope should be that whoever winds up in the Habs GM chair this June feels the same way about turning this glut of draft picks into assets that the team can use as soon as next season.

I don't disagree that they should look at picking up another top 10 pick by trading some of their second rounders, if they can find a sucker, I mean a partner. If you can't get Yakupov, there are too many questions around Grigorenko to make me feel comfortable. Also, I have this gut feeling that it may be worthwhile to take a chance on Galchenyuk and hope that knee surgery went well. He seems to have more of what Grigor has and only the injury is keeping him from going higher. Assuming we draft 3rd or 4th and the two Russians are gone, I'd be very happy with one of Murray or Dumba and Galchenyuk or Forsberg. Not that I know much about any of the 4, except for having seen Murray at the Worlds, where he was very dependable. (That wasn't him that had that first Russian goal bounce off his butt into the net, was it?). But all four have some size, can skate and have decent potential. Another quality d-man to join Gorges, PK, Emelin, Tinordi and Beaulieu would be quite something. Our 5/6 pairing would be better than most 3/4's.

Hab's Prospect Depth looks like Deep Ship!
Don't see an Ovechkin, Crosby or even Datsiuk on the horizon.
I worry about drafting a talented Russian who drops into our laps because of healt issues (see Kostitsyn).
Nail is the only sure thing without warts and unless we get a lot luckier than we've been that won't happen. Columbus WILL take him for their star power to placate their fans.
Keep Gautier in place and take a run at last place to win the draft next year. If we keep Gautier for 5 years we may pick up 5 #1's.
PK may become great and Emelin is a force. Beaulieu could be another PK (not a bad thing). Georges is a safe second liner at best (most nights) and Tinordi is making slow progress to replace Gill.
If we are honest with ourselves, it really is a 15th place team with some good but not great parts.
Picking up all four, Murray, Dumbo, Galchenyuk and Forsberg won't make us a contender.
- sad -

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Francois Gagnon pointed out last week that Gauthier has a lot of options at the draft this year given the amount of assets he's going into the draft with.

What I'd like to see Gauthier do is put a package together for Jonathan Huberdeau, but I'm thinking Florida won't entertain that. I don't know what it would take, but if it were me I'd make a pitch just the same.

I'm not trying to sound overly negative, guys, but my biggest fear is watching the draft and hearing Timmins get up to the mic and say, "... with the "number-x" selection the Montreal Canadiens select, from Minnesota high school ..." That would bite huge.

Still, we'll have to see what Gauthier has up his sleeve I guess. I hope he doesn't swing for the fences.

Cheers.

[clear observer]

Mar 5, 2012 11:58:11 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Still, we'll have to see what Gauthier has up his sleeve I guess. I hope he doesn't swing for the fences.

He won't need to, Dis, if he's standing 2-feet away from it with the 3rd-overall choice.

I have a feeling Grigorenko will be a Hab this summer with Yakupov and Murray going #1 & #2.

Further, I'd be good with that....damn good.

[blny]

I look at the teams at the top of the standings this year, and none of them are laiden with 'superstars'. They have rosters that have bought in and play like a team, and they're versatile.

We had a team that wasn't versatile enough before this year, but had bought in. That changed this season. If it's a new coach in September, there will be an adjustment process. As long as they buy in, we'll be much better off.

Improving our defense will go a long way, and I mean with pros that are ready. Ideally, we should only be looking at implementing a young D each year imo. We need that point shot.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Mar 5, 2012 12:10:30 GMT -5 clear observer said:

Mar 5, 2012 11:58:11 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Still, we'll have to see what Gauthier has up his sleeve I guess. I hope he doesn't swing for the fences.

He won't need to, Dis, if he's standing 2-feet away from it with the 3rd-overall choice.

I have a feeling Grigorenko will be a Hab this summer with Yakupov and Murray going #1 & #2.

Further, I'd be good with that....damn good.

I've got my fingers crossed, CO. Despite what some scouts are saying, Grigorenko has apparently improved his all around game under Patrick Roy's tutalege.

But, still ... after Kovalev and Kostitsyn, I'm a tad gun-shy about drafting Russians. I know the whole draft is nothing more that a crap shoot. But, with two notable exceptions (Markov when he's healthing and Kovalev's one outstanding year) our track record with Russian players isn't all that good.

Having said that, I honestly don't know who I'd draft. I'm not the professional. What a freakin' year ...

Sigh!

[blny]

There's one big difference between the "Special K's" and Grigorenko. The latter has come over to NA and is learning the the NA game. Part of that learning process is adapting to a longer schedule.

I've long wondered if part of the problem for some Euros is not so much the style of play, but the number of games. If they play their whole development 'career' overseas, they're used to 40-50 game seasons, and more practice than games. Here, it's the other way around. You have to train different for that sort of cycle, and perhaps some of them can't adjust to it and struggle to be 'up' for that many games.

Now, if you're an elite player - and not just an elite talent - the above scenario won't be a problem. See Malkin.

Grigorenko, Yakupov, and Galchenyuk all came over to NA to learn the grind. I think it goes a long way to shedding that "inconsistent" label.

[clear observer]

Mar 5, 2012 13:02:36 GMT -5 blny said:

There's one big difference between the "Special K's" and Grigorenko. The latter has come over to NA and is learning the the NA game. Part of that learning process is adapting to a longer schedule.

I've long wondered if part of the problem for some Euros is not so much the style of play, but the number of games. If they play their whole development 'career' overseas, they're used to 40-50 game seasons, and more practice than games. Here, it's the other way around. You have to train different for that sort of cycle, and perhaps some of them can't adjust to it and struggle to be 'up' for that many games.

Now, if you're an elite player - and not just an elite talent - the above scenario won't be a problem. See Malkin.

Grigorenko, Yakupov, and Galchenyuk all came over to NA to learn the grind. I think it goes a long way to shedding that "inconsistent" label.

This.

[halihab]

Mar 5, 2012 11:58:11 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Francois Gagnon pointed out last week that Gauthier has a lot of options at the draft this year given the amount of assets he's going into the draft with.

What I'd like to see Gauthier do is put a package together for Jonathan Huberdeau, but I'm thinking Florida won't entertain that. I don't know what it would take, but if it were me I'd make a pitch just the same.

I'm not trying to sound overly negative, guys, but my biggest fear is watching the draft and hearing Timmins get up to the mic and say, "... with the "number-x" selection the Montreal Canadiens select, from Minnesota high school ..." That would bite huge.

Still, we'll have to see what Gauthier has up his sleeve I guess. I hope he doesn't swing for the fences.

Cheers.

I just hope Goat and Company are not at the draft table. I don't want them making these picks.

[clear observer]

Mar 5, 2012 14:12:32 GMT -5 halihab said:

Mar 5, 2012 11:58:11 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Francois Gagnon pointed out last week that Gauthier has a lot of options at the draft this year given the amount of assets he's going into the draft with.

What I'd like to see Gauthier do is put a package together for Jonathan Huberdeau, but I'm thinking Florida won't entertain that. I don't know what it would take, but if it were me I'd make a pitch just the same.

I'm not trying to sound overly negative, guys, but my biggest fear is watching the draft and hearing Timmins get up to the mic and say, "... with the "number-x" selection the Montreal Canadiens select, from Minnesota high school ..." That would bite huge.

Still, we'll have to see what Gauthier has up his sleeve I guess. I hope he doesn't swing for the fences.

Cheers.

I just hope Goat and Company are not at the draft table. I don't want them making these picks.

#3 selection is a no-brainer where the Habs are concerned...even for the dimmest of dimwits.

[halihab]

Mar 5, 2012 14:16:52 GMT -5 clear observer said:

Mar 5, 2012 14:12:32 GMT -5 halihab said:

I just hope Goat and Company are not at the draft table. I don't want them making these picks.

#3 selection is a no-brainer where the Habs are concerned...even for the dimmest of dimwits.

Yes, but the dimwits will go off the board and pick a defenseman.

Wouldn't you want a new GM and Coach at the table ?