Habs Prospects 2018-19

[NWTHabsFan]

Aug 11, 2018 22:22:46 GMT -5 folatre said:

Canada is certainly in control now. That bad start seems like a distant memory. Well, Sweden is not the second most talented team in the tournament, though I like Raymond and Holtz looking ahead to 2020 prospects.

One would have to think Podkolzin from Russia has now kicked down the door for a top 10 ranking. Is this kid interested in coming over to play for Medicine Hat or is he staying place in Russia for another one, two or even three years?

Podkolzin is top five talent for me right now. Easie peasie. The stuff he showed all week is darn impressive.

Holtz and Raymond are the only offence that this 2019 SWE team has, and they are a year younger. Was stoked to see them before this tourney as I thought SWE was a dud other than them. Incredible 2020 class with those two. Too bad Soderstrom was injured. Broberg and he should be their best 2019 at this point. Young kids, so much can change between now and June.

My top teams were in order

CAN
RUS
USA/SWE

I wavered a bit on those last two, but the US team showed way more against that lethargic CAN team in the semis than I thought they had. Draft picks on that roster for sure.

[NWTHabsFan]

Oh yeah, one more thing. That is a great first round next year at this point. Centres galore. Skill. Speed. Great wingers. Fab mobile defenders.

[seventeen]

Ideally, I'd like to have more than one first rounder and I'd like ours to be a high one.

[NWTHabsFan]

Aug 12, 2018 13:15:49 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Ideally, I'd like to have more than one first rounder and I'd like ours to be a high one.

There are likely three guys on the current roster that should be able to get a first rounder in a deal. One is on the block, so getting a first back as part of any deal is key.

[folatre]

With plenty of rich pickings on display at the Hlinka, some observers are already saying there is no way teams are going to trade first round picks in 2019. I take this with a grain of salt.

Bergevin was conveying factually inaccurate musings at his post-deadline press conference when he suggested that in the league today clubs just don't trade first round picks. Looking back on the summer of 2017 and the months that followed during the 2017-18 clearly plenty of clubs around the league traded first round picks. In fact, numerous clubs--Calgary, St. Louis, Nashville, Vegas, Tampa, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, and Boston--dealt 2018 first round picks away. That is slightly more than 25 percent of the league.

The 2019 draft looks great at the top half of the first round. Obviously if a GM looks hard and cold at his team and sees holes here and holes there, then trading away a first in the next six and half months is a risky proposition. But honestly, there are plenty of strong teams who are going to seize the day and try to improve if the opportunity presents itself. If I had to hazard a prediction, I would estimate that the number in 2019 will easily exceed that robust number from 2018. In a way, I am partially cheating with such a prediction because Ottawa, San Jose, and St. Louis have already dealt theirs (and Tampa's is gone if they win the Cup).

There are going to be a large number of elite or near elite rentals moving (Karlsson, Panarin, Stone, Duchene), plus a few really good ones (Pacioretty, Staal, Simmonds, Nyquist, Zuccarello, Eberle, Kronwall). The reality is that a third of the clubs in the league are probably not going to have a first round pick in 2019.

[seventeen]

I'd guess that the stronger the draft, the more expensive those picks will be. But yes, draft picks always change change hands. Some years more than others.

[folatre]

Seventeen, for sure, in a strong draft year GMs are going to really have to like what they see when adding a roster player at the expense of a first rounder and more.

Teams with obvious issues and major uncertainties like Chicago or Carolina would be unwise to deal their pick no matter how much ownership says we want to win. But the really strong teams in the league like Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Nashville, and Winnipeg play the game to win and it would not surprise me if the majority of these clubs deal their first rounders. And there is also that group with solid but not awesome rosters who will probably not make a big acquisition before Christmas but as the season sorts itself out they may elect to get aggressive once they see the playoffs are clearly within reach (Anaheim, Minnesota, Vegas, Edmonton, Philadelphia, Florida, etc.).

I do foresee at least nine if not ten teams not owning a first round pick next summer; however, this does not necessarily mean Bergevin deserves to be bashed for not landing a first rounder in an eventual Pacioretty trade. It will depend on the overall package. If Montreal lands an upper tier though not quite elite prospect (for me this is a kid in the #3-5 or 6 range in most normal clubs' prospect pool), a second, and a third, plus a conditional second and fourth if Pacioretty re-signs, then the return is not great but probably reasonable. Carolina did poorly because Cliff Pu is not an upper tier prospect which makes not receiving a first round pick harder to swallow and to top it all off Waddell managed to include no additional conditional assets in the event that Skinner and the Sabres mutually like each other and continue the relationship.

It would be really nice to acquire a first in this trade, but I can accept and envision scenarios whereby the return for Pacioretty is acceptable without the inclusion of a first round pick defining the deal. The key in such a scenario is for the prospect to be better quality and for Montreal to insist on attaching conditions in the event that the club trading for Pacioretty re-signs him.

How does management accomplish that? Well, there is no magic recipe to follow. For me I think Montreal should: i) stop insisting on guys who have already earned a spot on an NHL roster; ii) wait long enough to get two or three suitors involved simultaneously, preferably with at least one of those clubs needing Montreal to retain salary; iii) avoid approaching the deadline because it feels like Pierre Dorion and Jarmo Kekalainen may have an incentive to play the long game with their pending UFAs.

[seventeen]

Great points folatre. For sure there will be some teams (aging ones like LA, San Jose, Pittsburgh and maybe even Chicago who see this coming year as a last good chance at a Cup and will then deal their first (which will be a later one, of course). Patches might attract such attention, but there will be others, from teams who have had poor years and want to rebuild, so there will be competition on the sell side as well.

I'm still of the opinion that Bergevin wasted his opportunity at the last trade deadline. He could have had a first and either a second or a first and a Grade B prospect, but either insisted on a Grade A prospect as well as an NHL ready players, which teams just weren't willing to give up. Of course, I don't know that's the case. The closest comparison perhaps is Evander Kane. Kane is younger, but was a rental whereas Max would have been under control for 2 years. Kane got Buffalo a 24 year old Grade B or C prospect, a conditional second rounder which became a first when Kane signed an extension and a fourth rounder in 2020. Not much really, especially if Kane hadn't signed. Using that example and weiging out the pros and cons, I'd say Max was worth a first rounder in 2019, somewhere in the 23-26 range. As we approach the deadline I think the price will be closer to Kane's, a conditional 2nd round pick. Sheesh that's bad.

[NWTHabsFan]

A little update on Kotkaniemi’s busy summer, including an upcoming charity game playing with Saku.

www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/jesperi-kotkaniemi---special-meetings-on-the-horizon/c-299748250

[Boston_Habs]

If JK's ceiling is Saku Koivu then I'm thrilled. Saku was a sneaky good player who had the misfortune of being the best player on some horrible Habs teams. That and injuries/sickness really set him back, but Koivu had the goods. An elite skater, solid playmaker, handled and skated well in traffic, solid build, fearless, played the 200-foot game.

You go back to Koivu and he played 2 years in the Finnish league after being drafted before going straight to the NHL. It's a different era, but Koivu dominated for TPS Turku with 156 points in 136 games (regular season and playoffs) over those 2 years. He had 74 points in 45 games in 1994-95.

I want to see JK dominate in that league. To me there's nothing else that can justify his draft status and future potential more than PRODUCTION. He doesn't have to light it up like Koivu but whether it's in Europe or NA, he needs to put up points.

My concern after reading some reports is that JK has focused his efforts on "improving his skating". Skating was never an issue for Koivu and was probably his biggest asset as a player (confident stride, shifty, sharp lateral movements). I don't care about break-away speed, I want my centers to have quick feet, strong lower body, able to turn on a dime, move laterally in a snap, with a super high motor. You simply can't be a 1C in the NHL without being a plus skater. Either that or you need a skill level that is simply off the charts.

[NWTHabsFan]

The fellow that runs that great shift-by-shift video library of NHL prospects has just posted one of Alexander Romanov in response to Habs' fans wanting to see some video of this unknown player. This is an MHL (Russian U20 league) game from March. He is #26.

[NWTHabsFan]

Romanov getting more exhibition games in with CSKA, which is a good sign. We will see what really happens once the KHL starts up in earnest though.

[folatre]

Thanks for the video link, NW. It is nice to see him in action. Regarding the reports from camp this summer, that is also good news, though I suppose people have to keep in mind even when kids look plenty good for their age they rarely claim a roster spot in the KHL, in particular when the club in question is CSKA.

[NWTHabsFan]

We all know so little on Romanov, that I will gladly post whatever nuggets I can find that describe his play from those that get a chance to actually watch him in action.

[franko]

have we not seen this before in the recent past, and hopes and dreams have flown out the window? big d, smaller d, physical, not afraid to hit or take a hit/engage in contact but loses positioning . . .

just what we need, another d-man to use abuse and trade after a couple of years.

I'm sorry, I promised myself I wouldn't do this

[NWTHabsFan]

I know these are just highlights and it is pre-season hockey, but from all the reports of folks who watched the game (they have been streamed), Kotkaniemi is looking pretty comfortable as the top line centre on his Liiga team. Hope the Habs let him get a full season in Finland to further develop his skills as he just turned 18. Let him get used to playing centre against men and also add some strength.

[NWTHabsFan]

Ylonen has been nursing a minor injury and has not seen any pre-season action yet. Sounds like that is about to change soon!

Kotkaniemi will be playing for Finland as part of an U20 tournament in Sweden next week (Aug 24-26), so he is getting lots of hockey in this month.

[NWTHabsFan]

Carrying on with the Finnish theme...this is so cool.

[frozone]

Thanks NWT. I saw a longer version of the breakout clip - it shows his work over the full 200 ft. Nice puck protection and some very quick decision making.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Aug 17, 2018 9:39:26 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Ylonen has been nursing a minor injury and has not seen any pre-season action yet. Sounds like that is about to change soon!

Kotkaniemi will be playing for Finland as part of an U20 tournament in Sweden next week (Aug 24-26), so he is getting lots of hockey in this month.

I was thinking of dubbing them the "Flying Finns," but that's already used to describe a few outstanding Finnish runners, most notably Paavo Nurmi ... I think I remember Stu McCowan (Gazette) referring to the "Finnish Connection" ...

Cheers.

[seventeen]

Aug 17, 2018 9:40:43 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Carrying on with the Finnish theme...this is so cool.

Koivu looks 15. Some guys just don't age. Myself included. I should clarify....that's mentally aged for me. I'm still immature. Physically?..you don't want to know.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

[folatre]

That is neat to see Kotkaniemi there with Koivu. Time flies.

Koivu was such a great competitor and I think he really was a great talent, who unfortunately saw his career ceiling become unattainable due to injury. I remember that my buddy's father called him earlier in the week to see if he wanted to use his tickets for the game that Saturday. I was really excited to go because I had yet to see a game at the new Bell Centre but something happened and we did not make the trip up from Burlington. All these years later, I cannot remember if it was related to girls, bad weather, or a term paper being due on Monday. But it would have been a downer to witness such a great young player go down to a serious injury.

[NWTHabsFan]

Romanov has played the last four pre-season games with Yermak Angarsk of the VHL (the Russian second men's league - the one below the KHL). I expect this move does confirm that he will not likely get a starting spot with CSKA in the KHL, which was an outcome that most were predicting anyway. The VHL option is likely better for him than the MHL (junior league) as he will be playing against men every game. Still some time before the seasons all start to find out where he officially lands.

[NWTHabsFan]

With most of our European based prospects getting pre-season action in, it is time to start thinking about upcoming hockey on this side of the pond. Our CHL guys will be starting training camps as their season starts in September ahead of the NHL. And the big show for a number of prospects will be the Habs' rookie camp and NHL Rookie Showdown - a three team rookie tournament in early September hosted by the Habs in Laval. The Habs will be missing most of their European prospects due to their league commitments (Kotkaniemi and Vejdemo will be over for this tourney) and the NCAA guys who have college commitments and rather strict eligibility rules.

[folatre]

I am pleased to see that Evans is likely to play. I thought with the injury he suffered in the spring that he might not be ready. He should look very capable in an event where he is among the older guys.

[seventeen]

While I'm not that high on Evans' ceiling, I think he can be a capable player...a 4th line guy mostly but maybe 3rd line. Have to give him a chance.

[blny]

That pic of JK with Saku is quite telling. At 6'2ish, he's reasonably tall. Saku was listed as 5'10, and there's just no way.

[NWTHabsFan]

Here is a very thorough article talking about Kotkaniemi's skating stride, and likely what it will take to improve it. I think when you see prospects who can only get better with improved skating dynamics (McShane is another prime candidate this draft), it is really important as to why the Habs should have a dedicated skating coach similar to what the Leafs and Tampa do with highly-respected skating coach Barb Underhill. Her most impressive student has to be Point from Tampa, who was just an average skater when she started working with him. Now he is a roadrunner.

I know the Habs have used Paul and Lucas Lawson at past development camps, but I am not sure if they have someone dedicated to working in the off season with prospects. Based on how guys like McCarron have not really seen any improvement in their stride in five years, they probably don't.

www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2018/8/24/17749254/analyzing-jesperi-kotkaniemi-skating-ability-video-breakdown-liiga-highlights-canadiens-top-25

[folatre]

Aug 23, 2018 22:05:56 GMT -5 seventeen said:

While I'm not that high on Evans' ceiling, I think he can be a capable player...a 4th line guy mostly but maybe 3rd line. Have to give him a chance.

I agree. It would be a great story if he turns into a poor man's Brad Richards. But I am still somewhat skeptical. He has certainly already exceeded expectations, though projecting ahead I wonder if Evans can win enough battles to create a little time and space to make his vision and passing genuine weapons at the NHL level.

Hopefully Evans is ready to go and Bouchard sees fit to try him as an all-around centre because given his age I think the organization is not going to have to wait more than a few months to really see what they have on their hands.