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Post by seventeen on Mar 22, 2020 13:38:11 GMT -5
I'm still not sure on Timmins. I simply don't know how often GM's have interfered with him. There was the Louis Leblanc matter, the 'size' issue in 2013, the trading of second round picks, the years drafting for positional needs. I'd really like to see, if he's left alone, what would happen.
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Post by Skilly on Mar 22, 2020 14:29:53 GMT -5
I think we have enough evidence , a whole decades worth
If you are going to give excuses to Timmins, then I say you must also allow excuses for Bergevin. The WHOLE problem is that way too many people (fans and media included) have been giving these guys too many excuses and easy outs ... enough.
There are no results to show any of them have a clue
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Post by PTH on Mar 22, 2020 15:33:49 GMT -5
I'm still not sure on Timmins. I simply don't know how often GM's have interfered with him. There was the Louis Leblanc matter, the 'size' issue in 2013, the trading of second round picks, the years drafting for positional needs. I'd really like to see, if he's left alone, what would happen. We find ourselves analyzing his work based on a very small subset of his work, and it doesn't take much interference to change everything. Add Shea Theodore instead of McCarron, changing Tinordi for Kuznetsov or Justin Faulk, taking anyone other than Leblanc, John Carlson in 2008 (if we hadn't moved it for Tanguay).... any 2 of those, along with just 1 more 2nd rounder panning out (too lazy to look up which picks we moved and who was available), and we're all his biggest fans.
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Post by Skilly on Mar 22, 2020 18:36:45 GMT -5
I'm still not sure on Timmins. I simply don't know how often GM's have interfered with him. There was the Louis Leblanc matter, the 'size' issue in 2013, the trading of second round picks, the years drafting for positional needs. I'd really like to see, if he's left alone, what would happen. We find ourselves analyzing his work based on a very small subset of his work, and it doesn't take much interference to change everything. Add Shea Theodore instead of McCarron, changing Tinordi for Kuznetsov or Justin Faulk, taking anyone other than Leblanc, John Carlson in 2008 (if we hadn't moved it for Tanguay).... any 2 of those, along with just 1 more 2nd rounder panning out (too lazy to look up which picks we moved and who was available), and we're all his biggest fans. True. But he didn’t. And he could have. But he didn’t . So why does he get a pass? What gets me is that people pointed out for years that Timmins was so great because of all these “hits” he made. By hits, they meant they played in the NHL . Now they are pointing to no no no Timmins didn’t make these selections, there was too much interference. So if it was a player that was ok it was Timmins, but if it was a bad selection it was all Bergevin? I don’t buy it. They make their selections in consort with each other ... Timmins has to own them as well as Bergevin . All of them
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Post by seventeen on Mar 22, 2020 22:41:15 GMT -5
We find ourselves analyzing his work based on a very small subset of his work, and it doesn't take much interference to change everything. Add Shea Theodore instead of McCarron, changing Tinordi for Kuznetsov or Justin Faulk, taking anyone other than Leblanc, John Carlson in 2008 (if we hadn't moved it for Tanguay).... any 2 of those, along with just 1 more 2nd rounder panning out (too lazy to look up which picks we moved and who was available), and we're all his biggest fans. True. But he didn’t. And he could have. But he didn’t . So why does he get a pass? That's the point, though, isn't it Skilly? Could he have? If your sheet says Carlson is a great pick but your GM trades the first rounder away, is it your fault? If he had someone else on his list, other than McCarron, but is told to go for size, is it his fault? If he's ready to draft Chris Krieder, Kyle Palmieri or Marcus Johansen, but your boss says, take the local boy, Leblanc, is it his fault? If you said A, but your boss said B, would you be willing to be fired by saying A, even if it's the smarter decision? You and I wouldn't, even if we bitched about it privately. Neither would Timmins. Some of the later picks, where the GM wouldn't give a hoot, weren't that bad, despite the odds of getting someone that late. Gallagher fits that mold. Nygren was a good pick, Andrighetto for a late 3rd rounder was good. Jake Evans, Victor Mete and more recently, Cale Fleury and Cayden Primeau. All picks that would have been done long after the GM left for a brandy and cigar. Too bad the odds on those are so bad.
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Post by habsorbed on Mar 23, 2020 0:51:23 GMT -5
It seems to me the ultimate test is how do Timmins' picks compare to other teams. As many have said, the draft is a crap shoot. So called expert scouts (mostly failed players) trying to predict how teenagers who need to develop will actually develop. It is a mugs game! I'm no apologist for MB as he is a terrible gm at all skills required to be successful. I can't think of any attribute needed for a good gm that he possesses. But if we are going to fire Timmins, I would first want to know how his picks compare to draft picks of other teams. Did teams make good picks because they had high picks and picked the obvious choice (see Matthews, McD, Eichel) or do they actually have a good record at consistently picking the player who is better than all, or most, players picked after that player. I'm guessing it is mostly random; some picks working out and some not. I don't know if there is a calculator to produce such a stat, but are there teams that have consistently picked players in each round who proved to be better than players picked after that player? I'm guessing all teams have a pretty spotty record.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 23, 2020 9:39:49 GMT -5
I'm not defending Timmins but the fact our development was the Saperlipopettes for years makes it more difficult to determine Timmins results... the next 3 years will be the key imo.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Mar 23, 2020 18:03:48 GMT -5
I'm not defending Timmins but the fact our development was the Saperlipopettes for years makes it more difficult to determine Timmins results... the next 3 years will be the key imo. I too am not certain about Timmins but he's been there for a long time and the results are not great. Individual decisions may have been imposed upon him but I'm not against a thorough house cleaning. There is no one I can point to as exemplary. Let the next GM start with a clean slate. Get new trainers, doctors and beer vendors if necessary. A new Zamboni driver with some goaltending experience.
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Post by Skilly on Mar 23, 2020 18:51:23 GMT -5
True. But he didn’t. And he could have. But he didn’t . So why does he get a pass? That's the point, though, isn't it Skilly? Could he have? If your sheet says Carlson is a great pick but your GM trades the first rounder away, is it your fault? If he had someone else on his list, other than McCarron, but is told to go for size, is it his fault? If he's ready to draft Chris Krieder, Kyle Palmieri or Marcus Johansen, but your boss says, take the local boy, Leblanc, is it his fault? If you said A, but your boss said B, would you be willing to be fired by saying A, even if it's the smarter decision? You and I wouldn't, even if we bitched about it privately. Neither would Timmins. Some of the later picks, where the GM wouldn't give a hoot, weren't that bad, despite the odds of getting someone that late. Gallagher fits that mold. Nygren was a good pick, Andrighetto for a late 3rd rounder was good. Jake Evans, Victor Mete and more recently, Cale Fleury and Cayden Primeau. All picks that would have been done long after the GM left for a brandy and cigar. Too bad the odds on those are so bad. You are assuming those conditions ... show me the proof! Show me Bergevin had no say in later picks. Show me Timmins didn’t think highly of LeBlanc. You have s strong Timmins bias. And strong Bergevin bias in the other direction. If it’s a good pick , Timmins is great. If poor you assume Bergevin interfered ... in my mind it weakens your arguments.
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Post by Skilly on Mar 23, 2020 19:01:03 GMT -5
It seems to me the ultimate test is how do Timmins' picks compare to other teams. As many have said, the draft is a crap shoot. So called expert scouts (mostly failed players) trying to predict how teenagers who need to develop will actually develop. It is a mugs game! I'm no apologist for MB as he is a terrible gm at all skills required to be successful. I can't think of any attribute needed for a good gm that he possesses. But if we are going to fire Timmins, I would first want to know how his picks compare to draft picks of other teams. Did teams make good picks because they had high picks and picked the obvious choice (see Matthews, McD, Eichel) or do they actually have a good record at consistently picking the player who is better than all, or most, players picked after that player. I'm guessing it is mostly random; some picks working out and some not. I don't know if there is a calculator to produce such a stat, but are there teams that have consistently picked players in each round who proved to be better than players picked after that player? I'm guessing all teams have a pretty spotty record. You’d need to set the “success” parameter. Most analysis use Games Played which is not a very good basis, but Timmins compares well in this kind of evaluation. He does select players that get to the NHL on par with his colleagues. When you look at impact players. He doesn’t. Then the arguments are always drafting in the 17-20 range, Bergevin controls the first round usually (Even though I’m fairly certain Timmins wanted Kotkaniemi). When you look at impact selection retained by the club , he drops off the charts. Players like Sergachev, McDonnagh, trades before playing ... and this isn’t Timmins’ fault. As bad as I think the Third Line Whisperer is, the development department which he should be a part of (but likely isn’t ) sucks royally. In my opinion, you can’t wash your hands after scouting. Timmins as assistant GM has to be involved in the development. You can’t select a player, give him an idea of his strengths and weaknesses you noted in you draft evaluation, then walk away ...
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Post by Skilly on Mar 23, 2020 19:40:02 GMT -5
True. But he didn’t. And he could have. But he didn’t . So why does he get a pass? That's the point, though, isn't it Skilly? Could he have? If your sheet says Carlson is a great pick but your GM trades the first rounder away, is it your fault? If he had someone else on his list, other than McCarron, but is told to go for size, is it his fault? If he's ready to draft Chris Krieder, Kyle Palmieri or Marcus Johansen, but your boss says, take the local boy, Leblanc, is it his fault? If you said A, but your boss said B, would you be willing to be fired by saying A, even if it's the smarter decision? You and I wouldn't, even if we bitched about it privately. Neither would Timmins. Some of the later picks, where the GM wouldn't give a hoot, weren't that bad, despite the odds of getting someone that late. Gallagher fits that mold. Nygren was a good pick, Andrighetto for a late 3rd rounder was good. Jake Evans, Victor Mete and more recently, Cale Fleury and Cayden Primeau. All picks that would have been done long after the GM left for a brandy and cigar. Too bad the odds on those are so bad. When we play the retro drafting game it is usually shot down as hindsight. Strange how Timmins takes no responsibility for his choices (yes yes, I know it’s evident you seem to have read the 2017 Brunet interview with Timmins), yet the team’s draft list had Leblanc ranked 9th on his draft list that year and still had him ranked above Kreider, and back in 2017 he says HE preferred Kreider. Yeah, Timmins comes across to me like Bergevin comes across to you ... won’t admit his mistakes and has an excuse for everything. If you are going to play the Carlson / Kreider game ... I’ll play the Giroux / Kopitar /Kuznetsov game ... Timmins has an eye for defensemen ... that’s it. You can’t knock his success for picking defense, no matter the Tinordi and Fischer type picks. But he had little to no success in 15 drafts selecting offensive talent. His top offensive players have been Pacioretty, Gallagher (second liner on most teams), and Galchenyuk (arguably mishandled, but nothing but a third liner on three teams).., not exactly blow your socks off picks.
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Post by folatre on Mar 23, 2020 19:52:46 GMT -5
I agree. The development side, particularly in the Bergevin era, has been very poor. But the drafting, particularly in the first and second rounds has turned up too few difference makers and thus it seems fair to say Timmins' draft record is no better than average.
I believe that Timmins likely has no future in Montreal beyond Bergevin's tenure as GM. I say that because since he has been with the organization for so long (nearly two decades, no?) I doubt that he is viewed as an heir apparent. And the fact that he has been Assistant GM for a few years now ties him to Bergevin and mediocrity in hockey operations.
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Post by folatre on Mar 24, 2020 20:34:21 GMT -5
Unlike the players who will receive in full the final installment for their 2019-20 compensation on April 15, full time employees with the Canadiens, Rocket and evenko will be dealing with a 20 percent haircut to their take home pay for the final three months (April, May, June) of the fiscal year. Thankfully the highest paid individuals (March Bergevin and Claude Julien among them) are taking a 25 percent hit. I am not saying that we should feel sorry for them, hardly. But shared pain, however relatively minimal for the guys at the top, is the right thing and the right signal.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 24, 2020 22:42:54 GMT -5
Let’s put it this way...if I was able to see that many games live and had those resources available to me to scout amateur games, I would not be happy with those results. Too many consistent gaps in the lineup that should have been filled with some of those dozens of picks. The drafting has been better lately, but still too skewed for position rather than pure BPA. I think Churla (whose addition from the Isles left me not that impressed) has a pretty good eye for talent. I underestimated him. The drafting for need and position bias has to come from the top. That has to stop. Why are the Habs so consistently behind in thinking in how they draft and develop players? Mindboggling with the resources they should be able to throw at this side of the business. I once sat in the Peel Pub (the new one not all the old ones I remembered) and defending TT with a number of NHL pro scouts about how he was top of his class. My bad, the results just don’t back it up anymore.
Housecleaning needs to be fairly broad. Still not sure it will come soon with Molson in charge. I would give Churla a pass though as I have liked how our drafting is targeting better players since he has arrived. More emphasis on skill and hockey IQ. Shockingly, like those teams that perennially draft well already.
It is one thing for Berg to say “build through the draft”. It is another thing to say why has this not happened yet in 8 years? Eight frickin’ years!?
Oh yeah. 14 picks. If he trades down again, I will barf! Move up with those picks. Look at all the draft odds analytics based on drafting positions. Trading away #50 last year was nuts. It was a good second round, and there were good picks left as a number of teams went off the charts a bit. He should have #39 and #40 or thereabouts this year. This is not a very deep second round, but those will be decent picks. Don’t trade them unless you are moving up.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 25, 2020 5:25:50 GMT -5
Oh yeah. 14 picks. If he trades down again, I will barf! Move up with those picks. Look at all the draft odds analytics based on drafting positions. Trading away #50 last year was nuts. It was a good second round, and there were good picks left as a number of teams went off the charts a bit. He should have #39 and #40 or thereabouts this year. This is not a very deep second round, but those will be decent picks. Don’t trade them unless you are moving up. We should all expect the unexpected.... The problem is if that was true, then before the draft, Geooffey would clean house... we all know what we will be looking at on draft day... MB drinking his proteien shake trying to look all buff, Timmins trying to find the next US high school sensation and Goeffey not sure whatis really going on.... And they'll have one of Price, Weber or Gallagher introduce the 1st round pick.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 25, 2020 14:38:31 GMT -5
Let’s put it this way...if I was able to see that many games live and had those resources available to me to scout amateur games, I would not be happy with those results. Too many consistent gaps in the lineup that should have been filled with some of those dozens of picks. The drafting has been better lately, but still too skewed for position rather than pure BPA. I think Churla (whose addition from the Isles left me not that impressed) has a pretty good eye for talent. I underestimated him. The drafting for need and position bias has to come from the top. That has to stop. Why are the Habs so consistently behind in thinking in how they draft and develop players? Mindboggling with the resources they should be able to throw at this side of the business. I once sat in the Peel Pub (the new one not all the old ones I remembered) and defending TT with a number of NHL pro scouts about how he was top of his class. My bad, the results just don’t back it up anymore. Housecleaning needs to be fairly broad. Still not sure it will come soon with Molson in charge. I would give Churla a pass though as I have liked how our drafting is targeting better players since he has arrived. More emphasis on skill and hockey IQ. Shockingly, like those teams that perennially draft well already. It is one thing for Berg to say “build through the draft”. It is another thing to say why has this not happened yet in 8 years? Eight frickin’ years!? Oh yeah. 14 picks. If he trades down again, I will barf! Move up with those picks. Look at all the draft odds analytics based on drafting positions. Trading away #50 last year was nuts. It was a good second round, and there were good picks left as a number of teams went off the charts a bit. He should have #39 and #40 or thereabouts this year. This is not a very deep second round, but those will be decent picks. Don’t trade them unless you are moving up. You've made a few points here worth commenting on.
Why are the Habs so consistently behind in thinking in how they draft and develop players?
The simplest answer is that Bergevin is flying by the seat of his pants without a real plan to follow. He gets criticized for no centres and voila, we draft centres galore. There's a huge gap at left defense (lets not get into the Sergachev deal) and LHD picks abound. A rational person would suggest to him that not only is. he perhaps sacrificing picks for lesser players, but that by the time those players 'arrive', the weakness may be at some other positions. The best rule?, draft the Best Prospect on your list and then trade in the future (eg Seth Jones for Johansen) to fill those weaknesses.
I once sat in the Peel Pub (the new one not all the old ones I remembered) and defending TT with a number of NHL pro scouts about how he was top of his class.
I'd be really interested to hear what those scouts thought.
Oh yeah. 14 picks. If he trades down again, I will barf!
Ain't that the truth. Given how many picks he's accumulated, (but only one more than usual in the top 2 rounds), it's clear he loves quantity. You can throw darts at a board but most don't hit triple 20. But if you're 6 feet closer to the board, chances are higher you'll score better. I much prefer quality to quantity. It helps with so many decisions, effort required to track and follow players, effort to develop them and so on. I cringe when I see a mutual fund with 200 names in it. Who can possibly follow that many companies properly, and how many of them could really be good investments? If one takes a breath and steps back, it's not hard to see that so many of these 'foibles' are rooted in judgment. MB just doesn't have good judgment. Unfortunately, his boss is focused on costs so paying Berg AND his replacement is simply not going to happen. He'd rather put up with seeing the team deteriorate rather than making a change. His bean counters have probably told him it's cheaper. It cost less to pay off the occasional person whose Pinto gas tank blew up than change the engineering on the car itself.
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Post by UberCranky on Mar 25, 2020 15:34:30 GMT -5
You guys realize that there may not be a season until 2021-22?
No vaccine. No Season.
Even if there is a bit of return to normalcy, there will be smaller wave after wave of infections.
Think about it, how much is the non sports world going to accept paying out a hundred billion in Canada and 2-3 trillion in the US so the sports world can flaunt it by filling up stadiums and arenas.
I do NOT support ANY sports of ANY type until it's safe to congregate.
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Post by folatre on Mar 25, 2020 18:19:51 GMT -5
There are certainly things, health and human life, more important than hockey.
But the reality is money talks. And it is entirely possible that the NHL (as well as the NBA based on what Mark Cuban was saying yesterday) will play some kind of playoffs later in the summer, likely without fans in the building.
Looking even further ahead to the 2020-21 season, time will say. Though if I had to guess my assumption is that once the experts believe that 'herd immunity' (50+ percent of the population infected and recovered) has been established, the imperative of capitalism and economic activity will prevail even if plenty of people in our communities would be in a situation where they continue to feel insecure about their own health.
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Post by jkr on Mar 25, 2020 19:50:40 GMT -5
You guys realize that there may not be a season until 2021-22? No vaccine. No Season. Even if there is a bit of return to normalcy, there will be smaller wave after wave of infections. Think about it, how much is the non sports world going to accept paying out a hundred billion in Canada and 2-3 trillion in the US so the sports world can flaunt it by filling up stadiums and arenas. I do NOT support ANY sports of ANY type until it's safe to congregate. Not sure if you follow it but Covid 19 didn't stop the NFL from throwing 8 figure salaries around this week. Hard to watch considering the circumstances.
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Post by jkr on Mar 25, 2020 19:54:23 GMT -5
That's the point, though, isn't it Skilly? Could he have? If your sheet says Carlson is a great pick but your GM trades the first rounder away, is it your fault? If he had someone else on his list, other than McCarron, but is told to go for size, is it his fault? If he's ready to draft Chris Krieder, Kyle Palmieri or Marcus Johansen, but your boss says, take the local boy, Leblanc, is it his fault? If you said A, but your boss said B, would you be willing to be fired by saying A, even if it's the smarter decision? You and I wouldn't, even if we bitched about it privately. Neither would Timmins. Some of the later picks, where the GM wouldn't give a hoot, weren't that bad, despite the odds of getting someone that late. Gallagher fits that mold. Nygren was a good pick, Andrighetto for a late 3rd rounder was good. Jake Evans, Victor Mete and more recently, Cale Fleury and Cayden Primeau. All picks that would have been done long after the GM left for a brandy and cigar. Too bad the odds on those are so bad. When we play the retro drafting game it is usually shot down as hindsight. Strange how Timmins takes no responsibility for his choices (yes yes, I know it’s evident you seem to have read the 2017 Brunet interview with Timmins), yet the team’s draft list had Leblanc ranked 9th on his draft list that year and still had him ranked above Kreider, and back in 2017 he says HE preferred Kreider. Yeah, Timmins comes across to me like Bergevin comes across to you ... won’t admit his mistakes and has an excuse for everything. If you are going to play the Carlson / Kreider game ... I’ll play the Giroux / Kopitar /Kuznetsov game ... Timmins has an eye for defensemen ... that’s it. You can’t knock his success for picking defense, no matter the Tinordi and Fischer type picks. But he had little to no success in 15 drafts selecting offensive talent. His top offensive players have been Pacioretty, Gallagher (second liner on most teams), and Galchenyuk (arguably mishandled, but nothing but a third liner on three teams).., not exactly blow your socks off picks. I wouldn't give him that much credit on Gallagher. He was a 5th rounder - 147th pick. At that stage he was probably just taking a flyer on the guy.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 2, 2020 14:24:03 GMT -5
When we play the retro drafting game it is usually shot down as hindsight. Strange how Timmins takes no responsibility for his choices (yes yes, I know it’s evident you seem to have read the 2017 Brunet interview with Timmins), yet the team’s draft list had Leblanc ranked 9th on his draft list that year and still had him ranked above Kreider, and back in 2017 he says HE preferred Kreider. Yeah, Timmins comes across to me like Bergevin comes across to you ... won’t admit his mistakes and has an excuse for everything. If you are going to play the Carlson / Kreider game ... I’ll play the Giroux / Kopitar /Kuznetsov game ... Timmins has an eye for defensemen ... that’s it. You can’t knock his success for picking defense, no matter the Tinordi and Fischer type picks. But he had little to no success in 15 drafts selecting offensive talent. His top offensive players have been Pacioretty, Gallagher (second liner on most teams), and Galchenyuk (arguably mishandled, but nothing but a third liner on three teams).., not exactly blow your socks off picks. I wouldn't give him that much credit on Gallagher. He was a 5th rounder - 147th pick. At that stage he was probably just taking a flyer on the guy. Does anybody know if the astonished lady in the stands who wanted Tkaczuk instead of Kotkaniemi can speak French. If she can Molson’s problem is solved. She might even be a pure laine Tremblay? I’m certainly not giving up on KK as he is still young. Just commenting on the knowledge of the GM.
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Post by The Habitual Fan on Apr 5, 2020 10:27:23 GMT -5
I wouldn't give him that much credit on Gallagher. He was a 5th rounder - 147th pick. At that stage he was probably just taking a flyer on the guy. Does anybody know if the astonished lady in the stands who wanted Tkaczuk instead of Kotkaniemi can speak French. If she can Molson’s problem is solved. She might even be a pure laine Tremblay? I’m certainly not giving up on KK as he is still young. Just commenting on the knowledge of the GM. I'm not being disrespectful but any pick outside the top 10 is taking a flyer on a guy. Detroit gets a lot of credit for the late round picks in the past but it had to do with scouting and seeing a guy with potential. I put Gallagher in that category where the scouts saw something to warrant taking a flyer on him. I am starting to think that KK's career is going to be one that mirrors Eller. A good skating defensive aware centre that will add some offense and secondary scoring. I just think that he will be happy playing that role and getting 20 goals a year. Eller was a first round pick that has shown to be a good valuable player on any team, his problem in Montreal is we all expected him to go to another level and it never happened. Washington is very happy to have him.
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Post by seventeen on Apr 5, 2020 13:15:00 GMT -5
Does anybody know if the astonished lady in the stands who wanted Tkaczuk instead of Kotkaniemi can speak French. If she can Molson’s problem is solved. She might even be a pure laine Tremblay? I’m certainly not giving up on KK as he is still young. Just commenting on the knowledge of the GM. I'm not being disrespectful but any pick outside the top 10 is taking a flyer on a guy. Detroit gets a lot of credit for the late round picks in the past but it had to do with scouting and seeing a guy with potential. I put Gallagher in that category where the scouts saw something to warrant taking a flyer on him. I am starting to think that KK's career is going to be one that mirrors Eller. A good skating defensive aware centre that will add some offense and secondary scoring. I just think that he will be happy playing that role and getting 20 goals a year. Eller was a first round pick that has shown to be a good valuable player on any team, his problem in Montreal is we all expected him to go to another level and it never happened. Washington is very happy to have him. I don't think Eller ever roofed the puck the way KK does. I think (and hope) that he can be as good defensively, but much better offensively. Another thing I've liked is that on occasion I've seen KK do something that surprised me. I expected a certain play and got something (to quote Monty Python) completely different. That too, is a good sign to me. I believe he's still growing into his body and once that stops, everything will come together.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 5, 2020 21:18:38 GMT -5
It seems to me the ultimate test is how do Timmins' picks compare to other teams. As many have said, the draft is a crap shoot. So called expert scouts (mostly failed players) trying to predict how teenagers who need to develop will actually develop. It is a mugs game! I'm no apologist for MB as he is a terrible gm at all skills required to be successful. I can't think of any attribute needed for a good gm that he possesses. But if we are going to fire Timmins, I would first want to know how his picks compare to draft picks of other teams. Did teams make good picks because they had high picks and picked the obvious choice (see Matthews, McD, Eichel) or do they actually have a good record at consistently picking the player who is better than all, or most, players picked after that player. I'm guessing it is mostly random; some picks working out and some not. I don't know if there is a calculator to produce such a stat, but are there teams that have consistently picked players in each round who proved to be better than players picked after that player? I'm guessing all teams have a pretty spotty record. You’d need to set the “success” parameter. Most analysis use Games Played which is not a very good basis, but Timmins compares well in this kind of evaluation. He does select players that get to the NHL on par with his colleagues. When you look at impact players. He doesn’t. Then the arguments are always drafting in the 17-20 range, Bergevin controls the first round usually (Even though I’m fairly certain Timmins wanted Kotkaniemi). When you look at impact selection retained by the club , he drops off the charts. Players like Sergachev, McDonnagh, trades before playing ... and this isn’t Timmins’ fault. As bad as I think the Third Line Whisperer is, the development department which he should be a part of (but likely isn’t ) sucks royally. In my opinion, you can’t wash your hands after scouting. Timmins as assistant GM has to be involved in the development. You can’t select a player, give him an idea of his strengths and weaknesses you noted in you draft evaluation, then walk away ... Want to clarify that i like KK. My argument is with the guys that picked him ahead of much better candidates. We were all surprised that they went for a player much further down everyone’s rankings and then played him before he was ready in order to justify their selection.
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Post by BadCompany on Apr 6, 2020 9:59:59 GMT -5
I'm not being disrespectful but any pick outside the top 10 is taking a flyer on a guy. Detroit gets a lot of credit for the late round picks in the past but it had to do with scouting and seeing a guy with potential. I put Gallagher in that category where the scouts saw something to warrant taking a flyer on him. I am starting to think that KK's career is going to be one that mirrors Eller. A good skating defensive aware centre that will add some offense and secondary scoring. I just think that he will be happy playing that role and getting 20 goals a year. Eller was a first round pick that has shown to be a good valuable player on any team, his problem in Montreal is we all expected him to go to another level and it never happened. Washington is very happy to have him. I don't think Eller ever roofed the puck the way KK does. I think (and hope) that he can be as good defensively, but much better offensively. Another thing I've liked is that on occasion I've seen KK do something that surprised me. I expected a certain play and got something (to quote Monty Python) completely different. That too, is a good sign to me. I believe he's still growing into his body and once that stops, everything will come together. Yeah, I don't think the Eller comparison is accurate either. Eller is a much better skater than Kotkaniemi (currently?) is, but he doesn't have nearly the same offensive vision that Kotkaniemi has. Or, like you said, that quick-release shot. He flashed that offensive talent in his rookie season, but unfortunately it kind of disappeared a bit last year. Remember all those spin-a-rama back-hand passes he used to make? I don't know if he lost confidence in that trick, or if they beat it out of him, but that's something Eller would never attempt to do - or even see, really. I think Kotkaniemi will either make it as a top 6, 60+ point center (minimum of course), or he won't make it at all. I don't see him turning into a pure defensive center because I don't think he'll ever be a good enough skater. Which isn't to say he won't be a good skater, just that to be a really, really good defensive center you also have to be a really, really, good skater. I don't see that in Kotkaniemi. I still see 70+ points in him.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 6, 2020 12:55:04 GMT -5
Initially, I thought we'd see another Ryan Kessler in Ryan Poehling but I see him developing more like Lars Eller and that'd be okay with me ... not sure who to compare Jesperi Kotkaniemi to ... wouldn't be surprised if the "astonished lady" is on highlights for the next decade ... minimum ...
Cheers.
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Post by Skilly on Apr 6, 2020 18:17:34 GMT -5
Initially, I thought we'd see another Ryan Kessler in Ryan Poehling but I see him developing more like Lars Eller and that'd be okay with me ... not sure who to compare Jesperi Kotkaniemi to ... wouldn't be surprised if the "astonished lady" is on highlights for the next decade ... minimum ... Cheers. Closest comparison to me is Kjell Dahlin. Lots of promise right out of the gate, then injuries stagnate him and management freak out Hopefully they don’t give up on him and he goes back to Finland
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Post by Willie Dog on Apr 7, 2020 17:35:18 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Apr 7, 2020 17:51:20 GMT -5
I don't like this talk of bring ok with it because he can be a kid one more year and be with the boys .... In college, that means partying.
I'll never trust this team's handling of prospects. So all CC has to look forward to is go back to a league he has clearly outgrown ... Oh goodie
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Post by HFTO on Apr 7, 2020 21:28:59 GMT -5
Hey guys .....hope everyone is well and safe as well as all your families....is it suffice to say that everyone from top to bottom has to be way better!...honestly they all have had pretty decent moments ....the biggest failing is how this teams develops and handles its players,especially when they make the big club ....the other is the lack of transparency and a honest consistent message with everything Habs ....the results make you believe the other side when it comes to any current or former Habs player news ....this is a big big problem ...and you wonder why beside the financial factors nobody wants to come here....things need to change and I’m not sure with a culture that’s been bred for almost 8 years can convince anyone different.....this is going to be a long process with the same devil in place who’s been part of all these important details that make teams relevant year in year out ....good luck to us
Stay well
HFTO
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