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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 29, 2020 7:03:28 GMT -5
Listened to a short assessment of some already drafted Canuck prospects and the guy talked a bit about the 2020 draft. He said that at first it was believed to be a really deep draft through a couple of rounds at least, but that assessment not prevalent any longer. He said the top 12 picks are really strong, but that it drops off after that. I didn't get a feel for how badly it drops off (eg, 2013 was a cliff rather than a hill). It was an observation that gets one thinking. There's been a ton of opinions about the quality of this draft, from very strong to average. There are no McDavids or even MacKinnons, but there are several guys at the top that I like quite a bit. I like Perfetti quite a bit, but then I think I've seen the Hlinka. Perfetti had 7 goals, 2 assists there. I found top 8-9 first line top players. It drops off after that but still solid players. Jarvis, Lundell, Zary, Mercer Gunier, Etc... Still a lot of talent available, from roughly 20 thru 60. I see more than usually. LaPierre, Bourque, Cormier, Forester, Barron, Schneider, etc... Montreal with 4 picks in top 58 should be good draft for us. I agree, but this is where Berg needs to keep those early picks or even use picks to move up. He has to stop his usual MO of moving down to get more picks. 9 picks in the top 105 or so. There will be players there for sure. I wonder if Berg’s draft strategy changes if the draft is held without an audience and not in Montreal. Not having to play for a big local audience might not be a bad thing. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 29, 2020 8:59:32 GMT -5
I watched the Sweden Canada game other day, in the Hlinka Gretzky. Perfetti was outstanding. But Holtz and Raymond did not play. So, wasn't best on best like I said a few days ago. I forgot they were not there. They were both with the U20 team last summer at the summer development camp and Summer Showcase tournament as underagers. They both played with the U18 team at the Hlinka in 2018 in Edmonton, where I saw them play live twice as underagers. It is near impossible to see those two against their age group peers. TSN did show those summer showcase and WJC games, so that is the best you can do with those two, |
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Post by seventeen on Mar 29, 2020 13:30:04 GMT -5
Perfetti is small, could be carbon copy of Caufield. Habs may not want to go in that direction. Whether it's Perfetti or someone else, I just wish they would disregard this too small, he's a winger or whatever else they toss into the decision ringer. I just want them to pick the next guy on their list regardless. Some of those factors will have been taken into account in the ratings, anyway. Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar are too small, too. Perfetti probably has 20 pounds on Caufield, so he's not quite that small. Henri Richard was small too, even for his time. CAufield (and Perfetti) both have that singular skill, in that they are goal scorers. Steve Shutt, Mike Bossy, Brett Hull weren't much good for anything else, but they managed to carve out careers for themselves. I'm not criticizing you, Gnick as you've got a good handle on many of the prospects. I'm just tired of other factors ending up with us drafting guys like Leblanc and McCarron. |
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Post by folatre on Mar 29, 2020 13:52:04 GMT -5
Aside from Lafreniere and Byfield, there do not really seem to be any big physically robust kids with the talent to merit being drafted top ten. So I would agree that Montreal should just take the player they perceive to be the best available without worrying about how tall or heavy he is.
I do believe the Habs forward corps is too small with too many redundant pieces, but it bears keeping in mind that whoever Montreal picks this summer is not going to realistically make the team until 2022-23. And as a I expressed in another thread, in the short term there are relatively inexpensive (in terms of assets sacrificed and cap space committed) moves that management could make to diversify and balance out the overall composition of the club's forward group.
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Post by GNick99 on Mar 30, 2020 7:23:04 GMT -5
I found top 8-9 first line top players. It drops off after that but still solid players. Jarvis, Lundell, Zary, Mercer Gunier, Etc... Still a lot of talent available, from roughly 20 thru 60. I see more than usually. LaPierre, Bourque, Cormier, Forester, Barron, Schneider, etc... Montreal with 4 picks in top 58 should be good draft for us. I agree, but this is where Berg needs to keep those early picks or even use picks to move up. He has to stop his usual MO of moving down to get more picks. 9 picks in the top 105 or so. There will be players there for sure. I wonder if Berg’s draft strategy changes if the draft is held without an audience and not in Montreal. Not having to play for a big local audience might not be a bad thing. Yeah, well I will believe that when I see it. The cost to trade up is usually high and Timmins has a terrible track record in the first round. I always figured Bergs was trading down to acquire more picks as Timmins more successful in later rounds that first. Gallagher, Primeau, etc... Wouldn't hold my breathe on him changing. I was hoping to move a Tatar and Petry at trade deadline, where draft is still deep around 20, be good draft to do it. Teams usually won't trade those lottery picks but will move first picks in the late teens to 20s. No Habs fans be angry if we come out of this draft with Perfetti, Schneider and Bourque in first round. Plus freed up extra 11 million in caproom. Getting back to trade deadline if we got a first pick and throw-in for Tatar/Petry each. Give us 3 picks by 20th or so. Could flip the throw-in with our 2nds to move into late first. Easily could give us 5 first round picks. Fans would really be excited if we added Perfetti, Schneider, Bourque, Cormier, Barron out of first round. That is rebuilding fast. Flyers did it one year with Konecky and Pro. Tried another draft with Patrick/Frost. They are doing well now. Maybe next year? Alot of pawns be in place to make that deal. With all the free agents |
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Post by GNick99 on Mar 30, 2020 7:30:58 GMT -5
I watched the Sweden Canada game other day, in the Hlinka Gretzky. Perfetti was outstanding. But Holtz and Raymond did not play. So, wasn't best on best like I said a few days ago. I forgot they were not there. They were both with the U20 team last summer at the summer development camp and Summer Showcase tournament as underagers. They both played with the U18 team at the Hlinka in 2018 in Edmonton, where I saw them play live twice as underagers. It is near impossible to see those two against their age group peers. TSN did show those summer showcase and WJC games, so that is the best you can do with those two, Perfetti looked great in Sweden game, but think they would have beat us if Holtz, Raymond had played. It went into shoot out. Perfetti may be it or may not. He looked small in the shoulders during interviews. Some potential to increase strength. It could very well boil down to Perfetti as first 5 I see fairly firm. Holtz and Rossi likely go before Perfetti. The only thing may change if a team like Yotes in '18, goes off the board and picks a Hayton. If it occurs again and a picks Lundell or Zary could be interesting. We may get a shot at Holtz. Or somebody gives terrible interview and slides. |
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Post by GNick99 on Mar 30, 2020 7:32:32 GMT -5
Aside from Lafreniere and Byfield, there do not really seem to be any big physically robust kids with the talent to merit being drafted top ten. So I would agree that Montreal should just take the player they perceive to be the best available without worrying about how tall or heavy he is. I do believe the Habs forward corps is too small with too many redundant pieces, but it bears keeping in mind that whoever Montreal picks this summer is not going to realistically make the team until 2022-23. And as a I expressed in another thread, in the short term there are relatively inexpensive (in terms of assets sacrificed and cap space committed) moves that management could make to diversify and balance out the overall composition of the club's forward group. There is a lot of skill there with pretty good hands. Raymond, Holtz, Rossi, etc... If we can add one of those in first round nobody be growling. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 30, 2020 9:36:35 GMT -5
If we stay at 8th, we will get a shot at a really good prospect. It will be interesting as to when the league will pull the pin on the rest of the regular season, as draft ranking will only be finalized once they make that decision. Pretty well every other hockey league in the world has cancelled its season as of wherever they were in their regular season or playoffs (not just paused or put on hold). No ambiguity. All the scouting teams in the league are at the same disadvantage right now: no Euro league playoffs, USHL playoffs, NCAA playoffs, CHL playoffs, Memorial Cup, and World U18s to finalize their draft lists. So be it, they have to “pivot” like pretty well everybody else in the world right now.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 30, 2020 9:44:44 GMT -5
Aside from Lafreniere and Byfield, there do not really seem to be any big physically robust kids with the talent to merit being drafted top ten. So I would agree that Montreal should just take the player they perceive to be the best available without worrying about how tall or heavy he is. I do believe the Habs forward corps is too small with too many redundant pieces, but it bears keeping in mind that whoever Montreal picks this summer is not going to realistically make the team until 2022-23. And as a I expressed in another thread, in the short term there are relatively inexpensive (in terms of assets sacrificed and cap space committed) moves that management could make to diversify and balance out the overall composition of the club's forward group. There is a lot of skill there with pretty good hands. Raymond, Holtz, Rossi, etc... If we can add one of those in first round nobody be growling. Yeah, the top end forward group is pretty impressive this draft with their skill level. The next tier of prospects also is dominated by forwards moreso than defenders. I expect Sanderson (son of Geoff, the pride of Hay River NWT) could be the second blue-liner selected. And a lot of the top forwards this year are wingers or guys who project to play at wing in the NHL (e.g., Perfetti). I am just fine with us getting a talented winger out of our first pick. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 30, 2020 12:55:49 GMT -5
Craig Button just released his latest Craig’s List. He always has a few guys ranked quite a bit higher or quite a bit lower than other lists/rankings. Interesting to see him still rank Askarov (Russian goalie) in his top eight. It will be interesting to see where he is picked. A big talent, albeit a rough WJC, but I really wonder where he will go in the first round. He also is very high on Quinn, even ranking him higher than teammate Rossi. Quinn is a good one. www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675 |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Mar 30, 2020 13:28:07 GMT -5
Craig Button just released his latest Craig’s List. He always has a few guys ranked quite a bit higher or quite a bit lower than other lists/rankings. Interesting to see him still rank Askarov (Russian goalie) in his top eight. It will be interesting to see where he is picked. A big talent, albeit a rough WJC, but I really wonder where he will go in the first round. He also is very high on Quinn, even ranking him higher than teammate Rossi. Quinn is a good one. www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675Seems like we keep adding Perfetti’s while other teams are adding Lafreniere and Byfield. First overall translates into McDavid or Crosby while we stock up on fourth line players. Our fan base gets excited with youth trying hard in 5-4 losses. |
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Post by BadCompany on Mar 30, 2020 13:34:07 GMT -5
Here is a list of draft-day trades involving picks from the last few years. I limited this to first and second round picks, and the deals do not have any players involved. I did not include 2017, as that was the Vegas expansion draft and there we a lot of side deals going on. www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2019.htmThe closest trade to our situation came in 2015 when the Avalanche traded down with the Sharks: * 31st for the 39th, 40th, and 156th (though they were in subsequent years, not all in the same year). So our two high seconds and a 6th rounder to move up 8 spots. Another comparable one involved us and the Kings last year, where we moved back 14 spots: * 50th for the 64th and 126th. Turned out to be Mattias Norlinder and Jabob Leguerrier for Samuel Fagemo. If we are looking to move up in the first round, note that the last time a team successfully moved up in the top 10 of a draft was way back in 2008, when the Predators traded the 9th and 40th to the Islanders to move up 2 spots, to 7th overall. We have similar picks to make such a deal, but of course it's all highly contingent on whether or not the team ahead of us actually wants to move back. Given that this has only happened once in the last 12 years tells me it's not very likely. As it stands right now we have the 8th, 39th, 40th, 61st, 70th, and 89th. -------------------- 2019(1st round) 14 and 45 to move up 3 spots to 11 (Coyotes and Kings) (2nd round)45 and 65 to move up 11 spots to 34 (Flyers and Predators) 44 and 83 to move up 7 spots to 37 (Senators and Hurricanes) 48 and 82 to move up 7 spots to 41 (Sharks and Knights) 64 and 126 to move up 14 spots to 50 (Kings and Habs – Mattias Norlinder and Jabob Leguerrier for Samuel Fagemo) 82 and 91 to move up 27 spots to 55 (Sharks and Devils) 73 and 99 to move up 14 spots to 59 (Wild and Hurricanes) -------------------- 2018(1st round) 26 and 48 to move up 4 spots to 22 (Rangers and Senators) 29 and 76 to move up 4 spots to 25 (Blues and Leafs) (2nd round)
64 and 146 to move up 8 spots to 58 (Penguins and Avalanche) 71 and 133 to move up 9 spots to 61 (Habs and Oilers – Olivier Rodrigue for Jordan Harris and Samuel Houde) -------------------- 2016(1st round) 12 and 80 to move up one spot to 11 (Senators and Devils) 22 and 36 to move up 4 spots to 18 and get 79 (Jets and Flyers) 28 and 86 to move up 2 spots to 26 (Blues and Capitals) (2nd round)
39. 40, and 156 to move up 9 spots to 31 (Avalanche and Sharks) -------------------- |
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Post by seventeen on Mar 30, 2020 15:24:13 GMT -5
Good homework, BC.
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Post by GNick99 on Mar 31, 2020 8:08:28 GMT -5
Craig Button just released his latest Craig’s List. He always has a few guys ranked quite a bit higher or quite a bit lower than other lists/rankings. Interesting to see him still rank Askarov (Russian goalie) in his top eight. It will be interesting to see where he is picked. A big talent, albeit a rough WJC, but I really wonder where he will go in the first round. He also is very high on Quinn, even ranking him higher than teammate Rossi. Quinn is a good one. www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675I usually ignore Button. He has mislead me before. Bob McKenzie rankings I generally use as my bible. Askarov....I haven't seen play. Hope to view the Russian/Canada game at Hlinka/Gretzky shortly. Goalies in generally ability and numbers have to be there of course. But main two factors I focus in on; is height and strong on the stick. Height because he can cover up more room up high when he goes into his butterfly. And a strong stick around the net aids his defensemen. Intangibles yes, but add up over time. Overall, I don't like taking goalies as so far away, usually 3 or 4 years. Then have to give up a top 10 pick is an offensive star. Can usually find good goalies late in draft...Primeau, Bishop, Lundqvist be a few examples. |
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Post by GNick99 on Mar 31, 2020 8:17:00 GMT -5
Craig Button just released his latest Craig’s List. He always has a few guys ranked quite a bit higher or quite a bit lower than other lists/rankings. Interesting to see him still rank Askarov (Russian goalie) in his top eight. It will be interesting to see where he is picked. A big talent, albeit a rough WJC, but I really wonder where he will go in the first round. He also is very high on Quinn, even ranking him higher than teammate Rossi. Quinn is a good one. www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675Looking at that list raises some eyebrows? lol Holtz at 13 and Lapierre at 10? Stutzle at 2 I can kind of agree with. He kind of reminds me of Aho. Got that great hockey sense and quick hands like Aho, center roughly same size. Quinn he has him too high. I don't like bumping players that fast. Quinn has only had one great year, may be an outliner season. Could also benefit playing with Rossi while a lot of others don't have the chance. Toggersson in late first, must of had a good season because he lacked hockey sense last I seen him. Perrault at 40, he has him to low. He has a good shot, wheels will play over 200lbs. |
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Post by GNick99 on Mar 31, 2020 8:23:01 GMT -5
Here is a list of draft-day trades involving picks from the last few years. I limited this to first and second round picks, and the deals do not have any players involved. I did not include 2017, as that was the Vegas expansion draft and there we a lot of side deals going on. www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/2019.htmThe closest trade to our situation came in 2015 when the Avalanche traded down with the Sharks: * 31st for the 39th, 40th, and 156th (though they were in subsequent years, not all in the same year). So our two high seconds and a 6th rounder to move up 8 spots. Another comparable one involved us and the Kings last year, where we moved back 14 spots: * 50th for the 64th and 126th. Turned out to be Mattias Norlinder and Jabob Leguerrier for Samuel Fagemo. If we are looking to move up in the first round, note that the last time a team successfully moved up in the top 10 of a draft was way back in 2008, when the Predators traded the 9th and 40th to the Islanders to move up 2 spots, to 7th overall. We have similar picks to make such a deal, but of course it's all highly contingent on whether or not the team ahead of us actually wants to move back. Given that this has only happened once in the last 12 years tells me it's not very likely. As it stands right now we have the 8th, 39th, 40th, 61st, 70th, and 89th. -------------------- 2019(1st round) 14 and 45 to move up 3 spots to 11 (Coyotes and Kings) (2nd round)45 and 65 to move up 11 spots to 34 (Flyers and Predators) 44 and 83 to move up 7 spots to 37 (Senators and Hurricanes) 48 and 82 to move up 7 spots to 41 (Sharks and Knights) 64 and 126 to move up 14 spots to 50 (Kings and Habs – Mattias Norlinder and Jabob Leguerrier for Samuel Fagemo) 82 and 91 to move up 27 spots to 55 (Sharks and Devils) 73 and 99 to move up 14 spots to 59 (Wild and Hurricanes) -------------------- 2018(1st round) 26 and 48 to move up 4 spots to 22 (Rangers and Senators) 29 and 76 to move up 4 spots to 25 (Blues and Leafs) (2nd round)
64 and 146 to move up 8 spots to 58 (Penguins and Avalanche) 71 and 133 to move up 9 spots to 61 (Habs and Oilers – Olivier Rodrigue for Jordan Harris and Samuel Houde) -------------------- 2016(1st round) 12 and 80 to move up one spot to 11 (Senators and Devils) 22 and 36 to move up 4 spots to 18 and get 79 (Jets and Flyers) 28 and 86 to move up 2 spots to 26 (Blues and Capitals) (2nd round)
39. 40, and 156 to move up 9 spots to 31 (Avalanche and Sharks) -------------------- Sounds like we will get a big haul if we move down 2 or 3 slots from 8th. Could be an option? Many on here want size. A 39,40 and a 6th to move up 8 slots in 2nd. We get more than that to drop a couple slots. Quinn, Lundell, Holloway are over 6'. Rangers sit at 13 and 23, maybe they like to move up. Probably get the guy we want at 13, if they do go for size, and 23 be a Schneider type player. It is a good trade. According to who is still on the board though. If a team wants a franchise goalie at 8, we could get the moon. Many variables |
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Post by folatre on Mar 31, 2020 9:56:05 GMT -5
Good data, BC. I would not say that Bergevin got fleeced or anything like that, but I have a hard time concluding that he received full value for the 50th overall pick. I am certainly among those hoping that he stops trying to be cute accumulating more and more picks (as if that was some sort of end unto itself). On the contrary, if a kid like Lapierre or Poirier was still sitting there in the mid-20s, I would like to see Bergevin package up some picks and move up.
I understand that Button is not predicting how the kids will come off the board per se (no one can at this point since the draft order is not even known), but his rankings always seem to have more variance when you hold them up to an average of rankings based on other major sources. For example, I doubt Quinn is going to be ranked ahead of Rossi on many other lists and clearly he loves Lapierre despite the fact that the kid played very little hockey this season due to concussion issues.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 31, 2020 14:26:53 GMT -5
Craig Button just released his latest Craig’s List. He always has a few guys ranked quite a bit higher or quite a bit lower than other lists/rankings. Interesting to see him still rank Askarov (Russian goalie) in his top eight. It will be interesting to see where he is picked. A big talent, albeit a rough WJC, but I really wonder where he will go in the first round. He also is very high on Quinn, even ranking him higher than teammate Rossi. Quinn is a good one. www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675I usually ignore Button. He has mislead me before. Bob McKenzie rankings I generally use as my bible. Askarov....I haven't seen play. Hope to view the Russian/Canada game at Hlinka/Gretzky shortly. Goalies in generally ability and numbers have to be there of course. But main two factors I focus in on; is height and strong on the stick. Height because he can cover up more room up high when he goes into his butterfly. And a strong stick around the net aids his defensemen. Intangibles yes, but add up over time. Overall, I don't like taking goalies as so far away, usually 3 or 4 years. Then have to give up a top 10 pick is an offensive star. Can usually find good goalies late in draft...Primeau, Bishop, Lundqvist be a few examples. Yeah, if you are looking for Askarov games: Hlinka (he played in the last two, but was lights out last summer), U18s (last April...another strong performance), 2018-19 WJAC (usually lesser competition, but there were some very good players on the CAN and USA teams that year and the Russians always send their top underagers team, so studs like Podkolzin and Askarov were on that team). |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 31, 2020 14:31:13 GMT -5
For the record, I posted Craig’s List without going into the many rankings I would do differently. That would be quite a long post! He has an opinion, and he does tend to see some players much higher or lower than others. His list always generates discussion though!!
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Post by folatre on Mar 31, 2020 17:00:44 GMT -5
If I am not mistaken, didn't Button have Caufield as his #5 prospect last season? By the way, I loved getting Caufield at #15 and it is many years too soon to know if he will be the fifth best player in that draft), but my point (as you alluded to, NW) is that Button tends to always have a couple or three kids among the top 10/15 who are ranked considerably higher than other rankings.
This year I tend to believe that Perfetti and Quinn may be penciled in three slots above where they will actually go and Lapierre may literally be ten slots above what reality dictates. I suppose that Button's retort would be that he is simply using his hockey knowledge and experience to create a best of ranking and that he is neither creating a mock draft nor trying to anticipate GMs' biases against certain player characteristics (e.g. being small, being Russian, being a goalie, etc.).
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Mar 31, 2020 18:00:16 GMT -5
If I am not mistaken, didn't Button have Caufield as his #5 prospect last season? By the way, I loved getting Caufield at #15 and it is many years too soon to know if he will be the fifth best player in that draft), but my point (as you alluded to, NW) is that Button tends to always have a couple or three kids among the top 10/15 who are ranked considerably higher than other rankings. This year I tend to believe that Perfetti and Quinn may be penciled in three slots above where they will actually go and Lapierre may literally be ten slots above what reality dictates. I suppose that Button's retort would be that he is simply using his hockey knowledge and experience to create a best of ranking and that he is neither creating a mock draft nor trying to anticipate GMs' biases against certain player characteristics (e.g. being small, being Russian, being a goalie, etc.). Ism't Rossi a better skater than Perfetti, heavier too and 1" shorter. Plays bigger too? |
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Post by folatre on Mar 31, 2020 21:01:51 GMT -5
LA, yeah, i have never seen Rossi play in person and apparently he is a couple of inches shorter than Perfetti. However, most accounts say that he is extremely fast and feisty. I saw Perfetti play once last season (and I know a guy who was on the Board of Directors where my son plays and has supposedly seen Perfetti play nearly twenty times) and I really like this kid's overall offensive game because he is skilled, smooth, and efficient with serious hockey IQ. He could be a left handed Oshie or Suzuki and I would not be upset at all if he Habs, picking 8th or 9th, select him.
But when you take into account that a lot kids playing major Junior hockey are not exactly jets on their blades, for me Perfetti did not look anything like a great skater. He is young and I do not doubt that he can improve with the sustained and intense help of a skating coach, but sometimes it is perhaps just a question of the genetic lottery and fast twitch muscles. Again, I have never watched Rossi live (though I bet some of the members in Eastern Ontario like Willie, Tank, and Dis have seen him), but on youtube he looks faster both in terms of his first step or two and his high end passing speed.
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Post by GNick99 on Apr 1, 2020 6:17:23 GMT -5
I usually ignore Button. He has mislead me before. Bob McKenzie rankings I generally use as my bible. Askarov....I haven't seen play. Hope to view the Russian/Canada game at Hlinka/Gretzky shortly. Goalies in generally ability and numbers have to be there of course. But main two factors I focus in on; is height and strong on the stick. Height because he can cover up more room up high when he goes into his butterfly. And a strong stick around the net aids his defensemen. Intangibles yes, but add up over time. Overall, I don't like taking goalies as so far away, usually 3 or 4 years. Then have to give up a top 10 pick is an offensive star. Can usually find good goalies late in draft...Primeau, Bishop, Lundqvist be a few examples. Yeah, if you are looking for Askarov games: Hlinka (he played in the last two, but was lights out last summer), U18s (last April...another strong performance), 2018-19 WJAC (usually lesser competition, but there were some very good players on the CAN and USA teams that year and the Russians always send their top underagers team, so studs like Podkolzin and Askarov were on that team). Yup, I finally got the chance to watch first period of Russia/Canada game at Hlinka/Gretzky. Askarov certainly played well enough there. Composed for a young goalie also. The way Button was raving about him doing commentary sounded like Askarov will be the next Luongo or Carey Price. lol Then again who listens to Button? I am just not a fan of drafting goalies high in first round as take longer to develop and history tells most good goalies are late rounds. For example, how much better can Askarov be than a Shesterkin or Sorokin? They were like 5th round picks. Askarov will probably be better yes, I will give it that. But is he that much better to pass ona Holtz or Perfetti? To me it is not. Timmins has drafted a goalie high before though. Also, solid chance Askarov be there at 8, Timmins could view him as best player available. So, decent chance we pick him. NWT, Pashin played well in this game. He is a smallish winger but explosive. What I seen in first period he played as well Perfetti. Would you take Pastin in 2nd? If we take do a goalie with our first pick or trade it down for size? Small sample size but he could be an option in 2nd round? |
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Post by GNick99 on Apr 1, 2020 6:20:39 GMT -5
Good data, BC. I would not say that Bergevin got fleeced or anything like that, but I have a hard time concluding that he received full value for the 50th overall pick. I am certainly among those hoping that he stops trying to be cute accumulating more and more picks (as if that was some sort of end unto itself). On the contrary, if a kid like Lapierre or Poirier was still sitting there in the mid-20s, I would like to see Bergevin package up some picks and move up. I understand that Button is not predicting how the kids will come off the board per se (no one can at this point since the draft order is not even known), but his rankings always seem to have more variance when you hold them up to an average of rankings based on other major sources. For example, I doubt Quinn is going to be ranked ahead of Rossi on many other lists and clearly he loves Lapierre despite the fact that the kid played very little hockey this season due to concussion issues. I think why Bergevin traded down Timmins is better at finding talent in later rounds. So, more late picks....translates into more NHL caliber players. Timmins track record in first round is terrible. I think he cannot recognize offensive talent, it is his achilles heel. In top rounds of draft generally offense is what we are looking for. So, you can see why such high failure rate in that round. They say like 6 straight first round misses. Every scout misses a lot, but that is too mcuh. Sounds like underlying problems to me. Some say it is our development but I see Primeau, Norlinder, Harris, Evans, Fleury as all legit NHL prospects. All were late picks. While Kkotaniemi, Poehling, Juulssen all took a step backwards this season. They were first picks and played with Joel in Laval. I don't think it is our development, looks like scouting and drafting to me. Timmins has a weakness. Anybody can read a prospect's stat sheet. That is main part of it, yes. How many goals he scored or how big he is. Everybody can also notice his shot or how fast a skater he is. But it takes more. What I do is while watching a game I focus solely on the hyped prospect. Hardly take my eyes off him. What does he do with out the puck? Does he skate hard coming back? Test his hockey smarts but noticing if he can find the open areas to create offense? Does he make the same mistake over and over. How is his hockey vision....are his passes on the stick or in general area? I try to even watch what he does on the bench....does he care? The little things add up over a long period of time. Timmins hasn't helped his cause any during interviews neither. Many of the holes we later find out about first picks he should have picked up during interview process. He either didn't pick it up or chose to undervalue it. Thought draftee skill will override his weakness. IDK |
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Post by GNick99 on Apr 1, 2020 6:29:33 GMT -5
LA, yeah, i have never seen Rossi play in person and apparently he is a couple of inches shorter than Perfetti. However, most accounts say that he is extremely fast and feisty. I saw Perfetti play once last season (and I know a guy who was on the Board of Directors where my son plays and has supposedly seen Perfetti play nearly twenty times) and I really like this kid's overall offensive game because he is skilled, smooth, and efficient with serious hockey IQ. He could be a left handed Oshie or Suzuki and I would not be upset at all if he Habs, picking 8th or 9th, select him. But when you take into account that a lot kids playing major Junior hockey are not exactly jets on their blades, for me Perfetti did not look anything like a great skater. He is young and I do not doubt that he can improve with the sustained and intense help of a skating coach, but sometimes it is perhaps just a question of the genetic lottery and fast twitch muscles. Again, I have never watched Rossi live (though I bet some of the members in Eastern Ontario like Willie, Tank, and Dis have seen him), but on youtube he looks faster both in terms of his first step or two and his high end passing speed. Perfettin is my pick at 8 too. That being Rossi is not there. I doubt he will be. I can see some wanting size though. Habs top 6 are small. I think Drouin is the biggest at 190 lbs. Then our top prospect is a smurf. I can understand why some don't want another. If we do trade down a couple of slots. Somebody posted the history on trading down and the return should should be huge. There is incentive to trade down. As around 8th, mostly small skill available. This draft from 10-20 is deep, like last year's, considerable talent from 15-20th picks. Krebs, Poulin, Newhook, etc... Quinn mabye there, we mentioned him before. Perrault could be a good pick around 20th. He will play over 200lbs, has a good shot. Possible better linemate for Suzuki and Caufield. Bourque is a real smart player, good in his own end, good on faceoffs, good hands. Schneider a solid prospect around20. Many options available. We could trade down 10 slots, pick up an extra first for next year and draft a Bourque, be a good draft. |
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Post by BadCompany on Apr 1, 2020 9:19:19 GMT -5
LA, yeah, i have never seen Rossi play in person and apparently he is a couple of inches shorter than Perfetti. However, most accounts say that he is extremely fast and feisty. I saw Perfetti play once last season (and I know a guy who was on the Board of Directors where my son plays and has supposedly seen Perfetti play nearly twenty times) and I really like this kid's overall offensive game because he is skilled, smooth, and efficient with serious hockey IQ. He could be a left handed Oshie or Suzuki and I would not be upset at all if he Habs, picking 8th or 9th, select him. But when you take into account that a lot kids playing major Junior hockey are not exactly jets on their blades, for me Perfetti did not look anything like a great skater. He is young and I do not doubt that he can improve with the sustained and intense help of a skating coach, but sometimes it is perhaps just a question of the genetic lottery and fast twitch muscles. Again, I have never watched Rossi live (though I bet some of the members in Eastern Ontario like Willie, Tank, and Dis have seen him), but on youtube he looks faster both in terms of his first step or two and his high end passing speed. Perfettin is my pick at 8 too. That being Rossi is not there. I doubt he will be. I can see some wanting size though. Habs top 6 are small. I think Drouin is the biggest at 190 lbs. Then our top prospect is a smurf. I can understand why some don't want another. If we do trade down a couple of slots. Somebody posted the history on trading down and the return should should be huge. There is incentive to trade down. As around 8th, mostly small skill available. This draft from 10-20 is deep, like last year's, considerable talent from 15-20th picks. Krebs, Poulin, Newhook, etc... Quinn mabye there, we mentioned him before. Perrault could be a good pick around 20th. He will play over 200lbs, has a good shot. Possible better linemate for Suzuki and Caufield. Bourque is a real smart player, good in his own end, good on faceoffs, good hands. Schneider a solid prospect around20. Many options available. We could trade down 10 slots, pick up an extra first for next year and draft a Bourque, be a good draft. I’m generally not a big fan of trading down, and moreso this year given all the picks we already have. We already let a couple of decent prospects go last year (Walford and Tyszka) because we didn’t have enough room, and we’ll almost certainly let a couple more go again this year. We already have three seconds this year (and multiple thirds, fourths, and fifths), so I don’t want to sacrifice quality for quantity. The only way I would consider it would be if the lower picks were for next year (spread them out), and the first rounder coming back to us was still within our “I’d be happy with any of these guys” range. So for example, to drop back five spots there would have to be 5 guys that are viewed as being of equal caliber still on the board. That could happen I suppose, but I’m not sure I would bet on it. Of course we can avoid all this by winning the lottery and taking Lafreniere.  |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 1, 2020 9:46:30 GMT -5
Yeah, if you are looking for Askarov games: Hlinka (he played in the last two, but was lights out last summer), U18s (last April...another strong performance), 2018-19 WJAC (usually lesser competition, but there were some very good players on the CAN and USA teams that year and the Russians always send their top underagers team, so studs like Podkolzin and Askarov were on that team). Yup, I finally got the chance to watch first period of Russia/Canada game at Hlinka/Gretzky. Askarov certainly played well enough there. Composed for a young goalie also. The way Button was raving about him doing commentary sounded like Askarov will be the next Luongo or Carey Price. lol Then again who listens to Button? I am just not a fan of drafting goalies high in first round as take longer to develop and history tells most good goalies are late rounds. For example, how much better can Askarov be than a Shesterkin or Sorokin? They were like 5th round picks. Askarov will probably be better yes, I will give it that. But is he that much better to pass ona Holtz or Perfetti? To me it is not. Timmins has drafted a goalie high before though. Also, solid chance Askarov be there at 8, Timmins could view him as best player available. So, decent chance we pick him. NWT, Pashin played well in this game. He is a smallish winger but explosive. What I seen in first period he played as well Perfetti. Would you take Pastin in 2nd? If we take do a goalie with our first pick or trade it down for size? Small sample size but he could be an option in 2nd round? For the record, I would not take a goalie with a top eight pick. Now if another team chooses too...then another good forward drops to us. Given the top 8-10 players this year, I can see Askarov getting picked outside the top ten despite Button’s love of his talent. Pashin is a dynamic player. He would be a good pick with our late second/early third and table pounding value with our late third. Good place in the draft to pick smaller skilled guys or Russian skilled guys who fall a bit. |
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Post by GNick99 on Apr 2, 2020 5:42:27 GMT -5
Yup, I finally got the chance to watch first period of Russia/Canada game at Hlinka/Gretzky. Askarov certainly played well enough there. Composed for a young goalie also. The way Button was raving about him doing commentary sounded like Askarov will be the next Luongo or Carey Price. lol Then again who listens to Button? I am just not a fan of drafting goalies high in first round as take longer to develop and history tells most good goalies are late rounds. For example, how much better can Askarov be than a Shesterkin or Sorokin? They were like 5th round picks. Askarov will probably be better yes, I will give it that. But is he that much better to pass ona Holtz or Perfetti? To me it is not. Timmins has drafted a goalie high before though. Also, solid chance Askarov be there at 8, Timmins could view him as best player available. So, decent chance we pick him. NWT, Pashin played well in this game. He is a smallish winger but explosive. What I seen in first period he played as well Perfetti. Would you take Pastin in 2nd? If we take do a goalie with our first pick or trade it down for size? Small sample size but he could be an option in 2nd round? For the record, I would not take a goalie with a top eight pick. Now if another team chooses too...then another good forward drops to us. Given the top 8-10 players this year, I can see Askarov getting picked outside the top ten despite Button’s love of his talent. Pashin is a dynamic player. He would be a good pick with our late second/early third and table pounding value with our late third. Good place in the draft to pick smaller skilled guys or Russian skilled guys who fall a bit. Taking a goalie at 8 is something Timmins did before with Price. Situation eerie similar actually. Theodore was a vet coming off a so-so season and a few years removed from a Vezina and Hart. Halak was a top prospect in our system. Now, Price is a vet coming off a so-so season and a few years removed from a Vezina and Hart. Primeau is one of top prospects in our system. lol With history repeat itself? |
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Post by GNick99 on Apr 2, 2020 5:46:44 GMT -5
Perfettin is my pick at 8 too. That being Rossi is not there. I doubt he will be. I can see some wanting size though. Habs top 6 are small. I think Drouin is the biggest at 190 lbs. Then our top prospect is a smurf. I can understand why some don't want another. If we do trade down a couple of slots. Somebody posted the history on trading down and the return should should be huge. There is incentive to trade down. As around 8th, mostly small skill available. This draft from 10-20 is deep, like last year's, considerable talent from 15-20th picks. Krebs, Poulin, Newhook, etc... Quinn mabye there, we mentioned him before. Perrault could be a good pick around 20th. He will play over 200lbs, has a good shot. Possible better linemate for Suzuki and Caufield. Bourque is a real smart player, good in his own end, good on faceoffs, good hands. Schneider a solid prospect around20. Many options available. We could trade down 10 slots, pick up an extra first for next year and draft a Bourque, be a good draft. I’m generally not a big fan of trading down, and moreso this year given all the picks we already have. We already let a couple of decent prospects go last year (Walford and Tyszka) because we didn’t have enough room, and we’ll almost certainly let a couple more go again this year. We already have three seconds this year (and multiple thirds, fourths, and fifths), so I don’t want to sacrifice quality for quantity. The only way I would consider it would be if the lower picks were for next year (spread them out), and the first rounder coming back to us was still within our “I’d be happy with any of these guys” range. So for example, to drop back five spots there would have to be 5 guys that are viewed as being of equal caliber still on the board. That could happen I suppose, but I’m not sure I would bet on it. Of course we can avoid all this by winning the lottery and taking Lafreniere. Parameters are different with every draft. I doubt Bergevin would. Right now Perfetti looks like candidate to me. But trading down for a bunch of extra picks in deep draft could be better. Tampa has done better in late rounds than first. Point, Kucherov, Killhorn, even Cirrelli started to look like a great pick this season. Drafting well late in draft has been major component to their success. |
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Post by folatre on Apr 2, 2020 9:55:41 GMT -5
It is hard to know. According to McKenzie, the 2020 class overall is not really better than average. It would probably not be wise for Bergevin to move Montreal out of the top ten because that has been identified as one of the cutoff points in terms of groupings of comparable talent.
McGuire continues to say this year's draft boasts genuine depth and in one of his radio hits I remember him saying that the kids ranked 20-60 are basically interchangeable. He also made a point of saying 2020 is full of character kids who could be value picks in the third, fourth and fifth rounds.
Despite that possibility that kids in the 20-60 range are comparable talents this year, I feel uneasy about Bergevin moving down with the #39 and/or #40 pick to collect additional picks. The organization's cupboard is pretty full right now and acquiring more mid round picks seems like a non-strategy.
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