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Post by GNick99 on May 21, 2020 6:28:52 GMT -5
Chris Johnston was on Tim and Sid the other night, said NHL has cooled somewhat on idea of holding draft before playoffs. I think be benefit to Habs. As he also said be many more players available thru trades this off season than usual. Due to loss of revenue and cap likely not going up. Habs sitting with extra caproom and a bunch of extra picks. Should be a few good buys out there
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Post by BadCompany on May 21, 2020 7:59:10 GMT -5
Chris Johnston was on Tim and Sid the other night, said NHL has cooled somewhat on idea of holding draft before playoffs. I think be benefit to Habs. As he also said be many more players available thru trades this off season than usual. Due to loss of revenue and cap likely not going up. Habs sitting with extra caproom and a bunch of extra picks. Should be a few good buys out there I've always thought that having the draft in June was a dumb idea, but if they are going to go with a 24 team playoff, then having the draft in June would have been the best thing for Montreal. We'd keep our top 10 pick, while still getting to participate in the lottery and the playoffs. It would be the best case scenario. If they don't have the draft in June though, and we are in the playoffs, we run the very real risk of turning that top 10 pick into a top 15 pick. Teams are right to be scared of Montreal in the playoffs, and not just because of Carey Price. Drouin will be healthy, Tatar will be healthy, maybe Mete, Weber and Petry will be rested, the list goes on. Our team is notorious for starting off very strong, and if you think of this layoff as an offseason, there is a chance we start off very strong once the season restarts. I don't think we can win the Cup, but a tournament play-in? Or even a round or two? The latest proposal has us playing Pittsburgh in the first round. Would anybody be really shocked if we beat Pittsburgh in a best of three? So if we're going to be in the playoffs, I absolutely want a June Draft. |
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Post by folatre on May 21, 2020 8:41:08 GMT -5
It depends. The league may well hold a lottery with the seven teams at the bottom.
There is no right answer. But for me I would prefer a six percent chance at Lafreniere (as well as the 6.3 percent chance at Byfield and 6.7 percent chance at Stutzle) than the truly minuscule odds of grinding through five rounds of playoffs with this roster to win the Cup.
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Post by seventeen on May 21, 2020 18:55:16 GMT -5
Chances are we'll get the worst of it all. Lose in the wild card arena, and end up with a pick after 8 or 9 where the quality drops off. Sheesh. Yes, I'm a freaking optimist.
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Post by folatre on May 21, 2020 21:33:43 GMT -5
Yeah, the devil is in the details.
It would not surprise me at all if the league does not wait until July to see who makes it through the play-in phase and it into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and simply moves forward on a seven team lottery to have some event (not a whole draft but a TV event nevertheless) in June.
And it would only surprise me a little bit if the league decides that a team like Montreal who in the case that they win in the play-in phase and subsequently lose in the opening round of the playoffs can at best pick #16 in the first round of the NHL draft. Would that not be a kick in the crotch, notch 19 regulation time wins over a 71 game regular season and end up with the 16th frickin' pick.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on May 21, 2020 22:58:27 GMT -5
A hot Carey Price, and it could be goodbye Pittsburgh and hello Philly. Not impossible to see the boys get to the “third” round.
From a less than 1% chance of getting into the playoffs, coming off a season with two 8 game losing streaks, a shot at Laf/Stutzle/Byfield, and at worst a top 9 pick in a good top end to the draft...to “anything can happen” in an odd made-for-tv event and a Stanley Cup that will always be marked by an asterisk now with this new play-in thing.
So the NHL gives lifelines to big franchises like NYR, Chicago and Montreal (the last two who have no respectful right to still be playing).
Still no word on how the draft will play out if this 24 team thing gets the green light. If you push the games out starting late summer, you run into playoffs that won’t be done by the time Euro leagues could start. Drafting kids who have already started their season elsewhere...why not, this will be a weird gong show anyway.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 22, 2020 5:10:55 GMT -5
A hot Carey Price, and it could be goodbye Pittsburgh and hello Philly. Not impossible to see the boys get to the “third” round. From a less than 1% chance of getting into the playoffs, coming off a season with two 8 game losing streaks, a shot at Laf/Stutzle/Byfield, and at worst a top 9 pick in a good top end to the draft...to “anything can happen” in an odd made-for-tv event and a Stanley Cup that will always be marked by an asterisk now with this new play-in thing. So the NHL gives lifelines to big franchises like NYR, Chicago and Montreal (the last two who have no respectful right to still be playing). Still no word on how the draft will play out if this 24 team thing gets the green light. If you push the games out starting late summer, you run into playoffs that won’t be done by the time Euro leagues could start. Drafting kids who have already started their season elsewhere...why not, this will be a weird gong show anyway. 24 teams in the playoffs. All games are 3 on 3 to reduce the spread of disease. No checking and 6 feet distancing between players. 6 month penalty for fighting. All players must wear figure skates and full face shields. Sanitizers after every shift. No fans allowed. Continue to call the game hockey. |
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Post by Skilly on May 22, 2020 7:37:32 GMT -5
I don't agree with the whole *asterisk* next to the winner angle ...
Did the 48 game season get marked with an asterisk? If all teams are playing under the same rules, then there is no asterisk. Every team had a chance to get rested and healthy over this timeframe, every team will start with "rust".
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Post by BadCompany on May 22, 2020 7:58:48 GMT -5
A hot Carey Price, and it could be goodbye Pittsburgh and hello Philly. Not impossible to see the boys get to the “third” round. From a less than 1% chance of getting into the playoffs, coming off a season with two 8 game losing streaks, a shot at Laf/Stutzle/Byfield, and at worst a top 9 pick in a good top end to the draft...to “anything can happen” in an odd made-for-tv event and a Stanley Cup that will always be marked by an asterisk now with this new play-in thing. So the NHL gives lifelines to big franchises like NYR, Chicago and Montreal (the last two who have no respectful right to still be playing). Still no word on how the draft will play out if this 24 team thing gets the green light. If you push the games out starting late summer, you run into playoffs that won’t be done by the time Euro leagues could start. Drafting kids who have already started their season elsewhere...why not, this will be a weird gong show anyway. I think we can pretty much kiss goodbye the best-case scenario of us getting a top 10 pick AND winning a couple of playoff rounds. There are enough teams complaining about Carey Price the Habs being in the playoffs that there is no way they will also let us keep our lottery pick. I doubt Molson has the clout amongst his fellow owners to fight for the good of the team (assuming he cares enough to). They'll just tell him to sit down and count his (Canadian) dollars and be happy with that. So the upshot of this is we're going to have some very unhappy Habs fans at the end of this, no matter how it turns out. If we lose in the first round, it will be " our $10 million goalie couldn't even win us a round and the team in general sucks, fire Bergevin". If we win a round or two - and really, beating Pittsburgh and Philadelphia is not that unrealistic - then it will be " stuck in mediocrity, we can't even tank properly, fire Bergevin". Either way people are going to be unhappy. I see an angry summer coming up. If we do end up in that 15-20 range of picks, after winning a round or two, do you think they'll take one of the Quebec kids, as a bone to the raving masses? |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on May 22, 2020 8:55:53 GMT -5
Normally, they don’t change draft rankings for playoff teams unless a team makes it to the conference finals. The interesting unanswered question will be what do they do for the 16 teams in their play-in round? Two possible scenarios pop to mind (although there are likely dozens).
They could just do the lottery with the lowest seven teams, and keep the remaining 8 lowest teams who play in the play-in series with their current draft position unless they make the conference finals (this might be the less painful for more GMs). Alternatively, they could do the lottery after the play-in series and include all 15 non-playoff teams (so a team like PIT could theoretically jump way up and draft much higher than likely is deserved based the regular season). Or many variations/hybrids thereof.
As BC mentioned, I would expect that the two lowest seeded teams in the play-in (MTL and CHI) have the most to lose under any scenario. They both had really bad seasons with pretty well no playoff hopes, and now they could lose out on a top nine pick while theoretically having very little chance of suddenly being good enough to get through five rounds and win a Cup.
The timing of the draft is also more significant for the Habs than most. They have the most picks, so assets with which to make moves at the draft. Ditto with a lot of cap room. And Berg mentioned at the deadline that he thought June at the draft was a better time for hockey trades because of those facts, and the added bonus being that all teams would be willing to trade compared to just a few at the trade deadline. When you throw in the dire prospect of the cap going forward, then teams will be much more inclined to dump contracts. If you have a draft before the playoffs are done, then far less teams will trade at the draft. They won’t move assets that could possibly win them a Cup until after the Cup is awarded. A lot of those advantages for the Habs, disappear. Some will remain during the off-season trading period, but it will be more opportunities lost for the team.
There are lots of little side stories to this draft depending on the “devil in the details” as folatre alludes. The Habs appear to have a lot more at stake (and to lose), and that does not even take into account all the lost revenue from hosting the event and giving Berg a big, local stage in which to make a splash while the spotlight is shining bright.
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Post by franko on May 22, 2020 9:53:59 GMT -5
interesting article (and perspective) on what might happen article hereTraikos talks about the good, the bad, and the ugly about the suggested playoff format. two thoughts in particular jump out. 1. the bad is that the Habs could win it all. 2. If the Maple Leafs were to end a championship drought that has lasted since 1967, there’s no question that the rest of the fans in the league will attach an asterisk to it.no partisanship there in a national newspaper. |
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Post by PTH on May 22, 2020 12:05:42 GMT -5
I don't agree with the whole *asterisk* next to the winner angle ... Did the 48 game season get marked with an asterisk? If all teams are playing under the same rules, then there is no asterisk. Every team had a chance to get rested and healthy over this timeframe, every team will start with "rust". Did the Stars' '99 Cup win come with an asterisk because the cup-winning goal was a toe-in-the-crease type situation ? And was accepted based on a previously-unreleased directive that could well have been written afterwards ? |
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Post by PTH on May 22, 2020 12:08:20 GMT -5
Either way people are going to be unhappy. I see an angry summer coming up. So.... pretty much as usual ? |
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Post by seventeen on May 22, 2020 12:33:48 GMT -5
I don't agree with the whole *asterisk* next to the winner angle ... Did the 48 game season get marked with an asterisk? If all teams are playing under the same rules, then there is no asterisk. Every team had a chance to get rested and healthy over this timeframe, every team will start with "rust". Wining a championship also requires staying power, health and some luck. Talent eventually rises to the top, but if, as in this case, everyone gets a respite, it skews the factors that normally go into a championship. ONe obvious example is the Habs. They were a pathetic team this year. But.....give them a 2 month break, Weber rests himself so he's not as worn out and ineffective as he was in February, Price actually sees a possible win rather than a clear loss and focuses and suddenly he team might win a round or two (they're still the 2020 Habs; they're not winning the cup with those centres) and the team performance is skewed mightily. Weber is a key player for them and a late season Weber is pretty bad compared to the early season Weber. I think it helps Veteran teams a lot. |
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Post by frozone on May 22, 2020 13:12:11 GMT -5
I don't agree with the whole *asterisk* next to the winner angle ... Did the 48 game season get marked with an asterisk? If all teams are playing under the same rules, then there is no asterisk. Every team had a chance to get rested and healthy over this timeframe, every team will start with "rust". Did the Stars' '99 Cup win come with an asterisk because the cup-winning goal was a toe-in-the-crease type situation ? And was accepted based on a previously-unreleased directive that could well have been written afterwards ? Bingo. It's not the number of games in the season, nor the games lost due to the virus. It's the tampering with the rules midway through a campaign to grant post-season access to only certain non-playoff teams. The same rules aren't being applied to everyone. Some teams qualify based on merit, some teams qualify based on money. |
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Draft '20
May 22, 2020 14:29:06 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by GNick99 on May 22, 2020 14:29:06 GMT -5
I see a best case scenario. We get in playoffs and still draft 8th
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Post by PTH on May 22, 2020 14:33:15 GMT -5
....they're still the 2020 Habs; they're not winning the cup with those centres.... Meh. You never know. Did anyone expect the 2010 Finals to be between two teams with awful starters ? If our centers are Domi, Suzuki and Danault, it's not that bad. Would Kotkaniemi have any chance of being available ? |
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Post by folatre on May 22, 2020 17:59:54 GMT -5
I believe that most speculation, given the delicate nature of the injury, considers Kotkaniemi being lucky to return in time for what would have been the real start of camp (mid-September). If that is even remotely accurate speculation, then it seems he would not factor into the playoffs unless the Habs made it to the Finals.
I hope that the league chooses to preserve the normal lottery with fifteen teams and the top three picks up for grab. Of course, this would require waiting to see which teams do not advance into the official 16 team Stanley Cup Playoffs. Honestly, though, I have a feeling the lottery will move forward soon with just seven teams. Molson (and Wirtz for that matter) should be in Bettman's ear big time, saying 'hey we are doing our part to boost the TV rating of the play-in phase despite the fact that we had (according to hockeyreference) a one-tenth of 1 percent chance of making the playoffs so we need our spot in the lottery if we fall to Pittsburgh.'
Montreal and Chicago are not built to slug out five rounds against superior teams. Fair is fair and if two struggling flagship franchises are chipping in to help with the TV money, then the least the league office could do is to give Montreal and Chicago their original spots in the lottery. The league is not doing Molson a favour including his club in the playoffs when there are no home games and no gate cash. Molson is doing the league a favour by helping TV ratings and putting more money in the pot for everyone to share equal.
Obviously if the Candien beat Pittsburgh then that is that and Montreal will pick 16th in the draft.
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Post by seventeen on May 22, 2020 20:10:15 GMT -5
....they're still the 2020 Habs; they're not winning the cup with those centres.... Meh. You never know. Did anyone expect the 2010 Finals to be between two teams with awful starters ? If our centers are Domi, Suzuki and Danault, it's not that bad. Would Kotkaniemi have any chance of being available ? It's been shown often enough that great goaltending is not a necessity. Strength up the middle, a stud or two on defense and preferably a scorer. The Hawks had Toews, Kane, Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa. Flyers had Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Briere, Giroux and Pronger. We may have the goaltending, but very little elsewhere. No stud defenseman, certainly not in the Keith/Pronger class and no one like Toews or Philly's crew. Until we shore up those positions, the Cup is a pipe dream. You can see it coming because of the drafting, but the timing is all off. |
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Post by folatre on May 26, 2020 13:07:15 GMT -5
According to McKenzie, Bettman's announcement today at 4:30 will not only deal with play-in format. It will also likely provide clarification about the format and timing of the Draft Lottery, as well as the timing of the Draft itself.
Buckle up boys. I want to be wrong but I expect Montreal is getting left out of the Lottery.
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Post by folatre on May 26, 2020 16:04:59 GMT -5
Well, Montreal did not get left out of the Draft Lottery completely; however, this format cuts Montreal's chances of landing a top three pick in half.
The situation is obviously suboptimal in every sense and these things are debatable, but for me this design is unfair. Clubs like Montreal and Chicago are bad teams who are actually doing the league a favour by boosting TV ratings (advertising revenue) end up getting screwed out of the original odds they would have had. I am not saying that Molson and Wirtz did not fight for their interests, frankly though I think they got very little in return for helping to carry the water for the league in this time of financial distress.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on May 26, 2020 17:09:47 GMT -5
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Post by NWTHabsFan on May 26, 2020 17:21:32 GMT -5
The whole fact that the final 8 lottery positions will be based on a phase 2 lottery of the 8 losing teams from the play-in can potentially hurt the Habs if they lose to the Pens and slip back from 8th. Not clear if the odds for a top three pick for the 8th worst team after play-in stay the same though.
Too bad BUF did not win a few more games. Both 12th place teams really are between a rock and a hard place in the draft when they were both at less than 1% of getting into the show.
Folatre is bang on, as their return on investment for what they give the league in terms of key market exposure is pretty well negative.
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Post by frozone on May 26, 2020 17:53:15 GMT -5
The whole fact that the final 8 lottery positions will be based on a phase 2 lottery of the 8 losing teams from the play-in can potentially hurt the Habs if they lose to the Pens and slip back from 8th. Not clear if the odds for a top three pick for the 8th worst team after play-in stay the same though. Too bad BUF did not win a few more games. Both 12th place teams really are between a rock and a hard place in the draft when they were both at less than 1% of getting into the show. Folatre is bang on, as their return on investment for what they give the league in terms of key market exposure is pretty well negative. "The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase are 12.5 percent." 2020 NHL Draft ProcedureThe way I understand this, after the play-in round, all 8 teams that have been eliminated will have an equal percentage chance at winning whichever top 3 spot that is (potentially) up for grabs. I can't help but think that this would have been SO easy to base this on relative point percentage from the regular season. But no... 8 teams all get the same odds. Our odds have gone down drastically for a top 3 pick. We basically have to win the lottery twice. |
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Post by folatre on May 26, 2020 18:59:34 GMT -5
For sure, that is the reality of it. Previously, the Habs would have had a 6 percent chance at Lafreniere, a 6.3 percent shot at Byfield, and a 6.7 percent chance for Stutzle. Now, Montreal has a 3.06 percent shot at Lafreniere, a 3.3 percent stab at Byfield, and a 3.56 percent possibility for Stutzle.
That is a tough blow for a club with only 19 regulation wins in 71 games and three bottom ten finishes in the last five seasons because these grim numbers tell me the Canadien need more shots at snaring high end talent, not fewer.
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Post by PTH on May 26, 2020 21:22:06 GMT -5
....I am not saying that Molson and Wirtz did not fight for their interests,.... Thing is, I'm not sure they see their interest in the same way we do. I think to them, getting into the playoffs is a big bonus, giving their team prestige and visibility, whereas a low chance at a random kid who might amount to nothing isn't worth arguing over. |
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Post by folatre on May 26, 2020 22:45:56 GMT -5
It is hard to know. Perhaps this is so.
But I worry to a degree if Montreal's owner and President of Hockey Operations believes his modest roster, which subtracted assets in February, is capable of a deep playoff run. And the financial benefit is more collective (Montreal is helping the league) than it is particular (Montreal gets zero gate), so it is not as though Molson and his partners receive an economic windfall from surviving the Penguins and qualifying for the official Playoffs.
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Post by seventeen on May 27, 2020 1:48:03 GMT -5
....I am not saying that Molson and Wirtz did not fight for their interests,.... Thing is, I'm not sure they see their interest in the same way we do. I think to them, getting into the playoffs is a big bonus, giving their team prestige and visibility, whereas a low chance at a random kid who might amount to nothing isn't worth arguing over. If you think in terms of rich guys who think only of $$$, that's exactly it. A buck in the hand is worth way more than draft balls in the lottery. The solution, folks, as always, is to take their money away. Do not buy ANY of their stuff. Only watch what is free. Like self isolating, it's difficult, and it takes perseverance, but it works. |
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Post by folatre on May 27, 2020 14:49:17 GMT -5
Well, what we do know is that the likeliest first round slots for Montreal to pick will be #8, #9, #16, or #10.
Other potential slots, though very unlikely, will be #3, #2, #1, #11, #28, #30, or #31.
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Post by Cranky on May 27, 2020 15:06:27 GMT -5
The "worry abut Price" angle is way overblown. This isn't the '93 team that had a hard working core to back up Roy's heroics. If "Price" is in their heads, that's their problem. Personally, I don't think Price is going is likely to be a factor. He could just as easily start to lay eggs as scare anyone with his goaltending. Historically, his legend comes from surprising people by winning games for a lousy team but he hasn't won anything from his pure heroics. The Olympic wins were not about him, but rather a stacked superstar team in front of him. If it was Roy or Hasek, the league players have a legitimate concern...Price, not so much. Although as Baby Yoda said... Wrong. I want to be.  |
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