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Post by Skilly on Dec 26, 2020 13:16:46 GMT -5
Sure sure sure ... but what if Allen starts 4 of the first 12 games , and goes 0-4 ...
This is what happened to the last few backups we had. They weren’t winning , and we need the backup to not only play, but play and win close to 60% of his games. The one goalie we had that did that, got the blame because even though he was winning, his goals against average and save percentage were pretty bad ... so they rode Carey.
In a 56 game schedule, I’m still playing Price over 45 times.
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Post by habsorbed on Dec 26, 2020 17:28:56 GMT -5
Sure sure sure ... but what if Allen starts 4 of the first 12 games , and goes 0-4 ... This is what happened to the last few backups we had. They weren’t winning , and we need the backup to not only play, but play and win close to 60% of his games. The one goalie we had that did that, got the blame because even though he was winning, his goals against average and save percentage were pretty bad ... so they rode Carey. In a 56 game schedule, I’m still playing Price over 45 times. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Allen is anything great. Just saying MB and CJ have to follow the plan. Having said that, MB has an atrocious record of selecting goalies both with backups and draft. so Allen may be a bust. But I will be shocked if he doesn't play 16 games minimum, unless he's a complete bust.
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Post by folatre on Dec 26, 2020 17:57:03 GMT -5
Price, since he turned 30, has been highly inconsistent and has not thrived on a heavy workload (.909 save percentage over three full seasons 2017-20 while twice leading the league in starts in that span). No one is saying it is a lock that Allen will play at a high level this season, but obviously Bergevin and his pro scouts must believe in Allen because he will be taking up more than double the cap space than any backup that Price has ever had. Saying the Habs need 60 percent of the points in the games the backup starts may or may not prove to be true. Time will say. But it strikes me as odd to say hey that’s the standard we need when Carey Price has not earned 60 percent of the points from his starts since his age 29 season. -- It is almost as though the argument seems to be 'well if the backup cannot be better than Price then the backup should rarely play.'
How about Price be better? And isn’t the idea to see if a lighter workload can improve Price’s performances? Because more of the same from Price seems a likely way to get the same mediocre results in the standings.
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Post by Skilly on Dec 27, 2020 8:03:10 GMT -5
Price, since he turned 30, has been highly inconsistent and has not thrived on a heavy workload (.909 save percentage over three full seasons 2017-20 while twice leading the league in starts in that span). No one is saying it is a lock that Allen will play at a high level this season, but obviously Bergevin and his pro scouts must believe in Allen because he will be taking up more than double the cap space than any backup that Price has ever had. Saying the Habs need 60 percent of the points in the games the backup starts may or may not prove to be true. Time will say. But it strikes me as odd to say hey that’s the standard we need when Carey Price has not earned 60 percent of the points from his starts since his age 29 season. -- It is almost as though the argument seems to be 'well if the backup cannot be better than Price then the backup should rarely play.' How about Price be better? And isn’t the idea to see if a lighter workload can improve Price’s performances? Because more of the same from Price seems a likely way to get the same mediocre results in the standings. How much better do you want price to be? In his best season he won 71% of points. We know that isn’t going to happen again. He other good years, he plays between 59% and 62%. He is a career 57% So why do I keep saying that “mythical” 60% point plateau for the back-up? Well 60% of points in a season is 98 pts. You are still not guaranteed to be in the playoffs with 98pts, but you should get in more often than not. 94-96 points seems to be the #8 seed point range. That’s why I say over 60%. If Price plays 60%, we still need the back up to match it to reach close to 100 points. We’ve been living on goaltending for so long and you see the results in how many playoffs we’ve missed in recent seasons. I’ve been advocating for better offense, to stop relying on Price. In fact, I’d have traded Price a few seasons ago ... goaltending may be needed in the playoffs , but you need reliable consistent offense to get you there in the first place. So yes, Price , please play better .., but career wise he is around 57%, so to advocate that the back up should play MORE, then he better have Price numbers too or we ain’t making any playoffs
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Post by Tankdriver on Dec 27, 2020 12:10:43 GMT -5
To allocate points percentage to as a goalie stat is just not fair to the goalie. Last I checked there is still 5 other skaters on the ice and a bunch on the bench. It doesn't matter if you stand on your head but if the other team scores 1 more than your team, you won't win. This is the part where your argument comes into play. For years we have been supporting a pop gun offense. Until we start signing or drafting superstars, our chances of winning will still be low. And that leaves price and the back up with less chance to get points.
No matter how you slice it, I would rather have a Matthew's over a Gallagher and Danault (combined salary equivalent)
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Dec 27, 2020 12:12:10 GMT -5
Price, since he turned 30, has been highly inconsistent and has not thrived on a heavy workload (.909 save percentage over three full seasons 2017-20 while twice leading the league in starts in that span). No one is saying it is a lock that Allen will play at a high level this season, but obviously Bergevin and his pro scouts must believe in Allen because he will be taking up more than double the cap space than any backup that Price has ever had. Saying the Habs need 60 percent of the points in the games the backup starts may or may not prove to be true. Time will say. But it strikes me as odd to say hey that’s the standard we need when Carey Price has not earned 60 percent of the points from his starts since his age 29 season. -- It is almost as though the argument seems to be 'well if the backup cannot be better than Price then the backup should rarely play.' How about Price be better? And isn’t the idea to see if a lighter workload can improve Price’s performances? Because more of the same from Price seems a likely way to get the same mediocre results in the standings. How much better do you want price to be? In his best season he won 71% of points. We know that isn’t going to happen again. He other good years, he plays between 59% and 62%. He is a career 57% So why do I keep saying that “mythical” 60% point plateau for the back-up? Well 60% of points in a season is 98 pts. You are still not guaranteed to be in the playoffs with 98pts, but you should get in more often than not. 94-96 points seems to be the #8 seed point range. That’s why I say over 60%. If Price plays 60%, we still need the back up to match it to reach close to 100 points. We’ve been living on goaltending for so long and you see the results in how many playoffs we’ve missed in recent seasons. I’ve been advocating for better offense, to stop relying on Price. In fact, I’d have traded Price a few seasons ago ... goaltending may be needed in the playoffs , but you need reliable consistent offense to get you there in the first place. So yes, Price , please play better .., but career wise he is around 57%, so to advocate that the back up should play MORE, then he better have Price numbers too or we ain’t making any playoffs It sounds good to make the playoffs and then anything can happen. It also means that the goal is to only be worse than half of the teams in the league. A lofty achievement after 9 years as GM
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Post by folatre on Dec 27, 2020 19:41:10 GMT -5
At 33 years old, overloaded Price probably cannot play better than 60 percent of the points. But how do we know that less overworked Price cannot play better?
I am a little skeptical of the implicit assumption that Price is going to perform at the same level whether he gets 2/3 of the starts or 4/5 of the starts. If that is actually the case, then what is the science of load management, a hoax?
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Post by Skilly on Dec 27, 2020 20:13:44 GMT -5
To allocate points percentage to as a goalie stat is just not fair to the goalie. Last I checked there is still 5 other skaters on the ice and a bunch on the bench. It doesn't matter if you stand on your head but if the other team scores 1 more than your team, you won't win. This is the part where your argument comes into play. For years we have been supporting a pop gun offense. Until we start signing or drafting superstars, our chances of winning will still be low. And that leaves price and the back up with less chance to get points. No matter how you slice it, I would rather have a Matthew's over a Gallagher and Danault (combined salary equivalent) And there you go ... you get my argument exactly. No sense playing Allen more if we can’t score enough to win. And if he isn’t getting Ws (his fault or not) we HAVE to play Price more to have a chance
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Post by Skilly on Dec 27, 2020 20:16:14 GMT -5
At 33 years old, overloaded Price probably cannot play better than 60 percent of the points. But how do we know that less overworked Price cannot play better? I am a little skeptical of the implicit assumption that Price is going to perform at the same level whether he gets 2/3 of the starts or 4/5 of the starts. If that is actually the case, then what is the science of load management, a hoax? Prove to me load management makes the TEAM win more ... I have not witnessed it It might make Price play better, but if the team isn’t winning when he plays rested or with the back up in ... then yes, it is a red herring Case in point . Price had lots of rest last year. So much so everyone whined that MTL getting a playoff chance with a well rested Price was unfair. Sure we beat Pittsburgh ... but we went 5W-5L .... so how much rest does he need to consistently put up Ws? Then there was the curious case of his chronic fatigue. Which was brought under control with vitamins. Price struggled at the start of 2017-18, going 3-7-1 before getting injured and all of HabLand learning the difference between chronic fatigue and chronic fatigue syndrome. When Price returned from his rest. He had some brutally terrible games and when he started to play more consistent still went 10-8-3 in his first 21 games upon return. That’s not good enough to make the playoffs ... in Price’s absense, the backups went 3-6-2. Again not good enough. All of this to say, I don’t think load management means squat unless we are banking points during the management time, and upon return we bank more than normal until the next rest period ... which my eye test, and research test tells me is not happening. Why? Because we don’t have the horses to support the goalies and give them the perverbial easy wins
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Post by folatre on Dec 27, 2020 22:16:52 GMT -5
The 2018-19 Habs were a good team, though not quite good enough to make the playoffs. Price was the goalie of record in 65 games and Montreal earned 58.46 percent of the points in those games. In the other 17 games Montreal earned 58.82 percent of the points. I am not saying that Niemi or Lindgren outplayed Price. They did not. But how many starts do you want to saddle a goalie of Price’s age with, 70 or 75?
I totally agree that it comes down to having more elite difference makers on the rosters so wins come easier. But I do not see the case for starting Price in 4/5 games given that since he turned 30 years old the numbers simply do not seem to justify it.
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Post by Willie Dog on Dec 27, 2020 23:44:34 GMT -5
The 2018-19 Habs were a good team, though not quite good enough to make the playoffs. Price was the goalie of record in 65 games and Montreal earned 58.46 percent of the points in those games. In the other 17 games Montreal earned 58.82 percent of the points. I am not saying that Niemi or Lindgren outplayed Price. They did not. But how many starts do you want to saddle a goalie of Price’s age with, 70 or 75? I totally agree that it comes down to having more elite difference makers on the rosters so wins come easier. But I do not see the case for starting Price in 4/5 games given that since he turned 30 years old the numbers simply do not seem to justify it. The reason why the percentages are the same is the players protected the backup more than Price, I recall many games where the players looked waaay more focused when a backup was in... just my observation
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Post by seventeen on Dec 28, 2020 2:09:51 GMT -5
The reason why the percentages are the same is the players protected the backup more than Price, I recall many games where the players looked waaay more focused when a backup was in... just my observation Might well be. Does that mean with Allen in goal, as a much more capable keeper than the team has had in the past, they may not defend as emphatically as they did for previous backups? Frankly, I think it's a red herring. The team needs elite talent. The key this year is not Allen, or Anderson or Toffoli, but Kotkaniemi and Suzuki. They need to be difference makers and if they are not, it will be a struggle to make the playoffs. Another huge concern for me is that defense. Petry gives up as much as he provides, I'm concerned that Chiarot played over his head last year, and that Edmundson is just another filler while the guys who might make a difference in a year or two (Romanov, Juulsen, Fleury and Kulak) will be relegated to more of a bench role than a development role because Julien. I watched some of the 2005 WJC tournament, where Bergeron was a key centre. He was terrific and I doubt Julien neither helped or hurt him in his development. The kid was going to be great because he is smart and had the skills and drive. Other than Bergeron, most kids under Julien did not blossom until he left. He just likes his vets and that's my eye test too, not just Bruin critics.
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Post by Skilly on Dec 28, 2020 11:02:58 GMT -5
The 2018-19 Habs were a good team, though not quite good enough to make the playoffs. Price was the goalie of record in 65 games and Montreal earned 58.46 percent of the points in those games. In the other 17 games Montreal earned 58.82 percent of the points. I am not saying that Niemi or Lindgren outplayed Price. They did not. But how many starts do you want to saddle a goalie of Price’s age with, 70 or 75? I totally agree that it comes down to having more elite difference makers on the rosters so wins come easier. But I do not see the case for starting Price in 4/5 games given that since he turned 30 years old the numbers simply do not seem to justify it. I believe you just proved my point. Price garnered under 60%, but above his career average. Soooooo the back-ups need to outdo that just to squeak in the playoffs ... If Price is not getting 60%, the back up have to get more ... Now, who provides us with the best chance to get 60% ? ... the older Price, who hasn't done it in a while, or the trash heap back-ups? Now, if Allen turns out to be a gem, and starts getting 65% in his spells of Price, then great (as long as Price is still gettin close to 60%), but then why do we need Price and his 10.5 million anchor. Being older , or not, that price tag comes with expectations , and for me those expectations are not riding pine for more than 1/3 of the season.
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Post by Skilly on Dec 28, 2020 11:11:02 GMT -5
The reason why the percentages are the same is the players protected the backup more than Price, I recall many games where the players looked waaay more focused when a backup was in... just my observation Might well be. Does that mean with Allen in goal, as a much more capable keeper than the team has had in the past, they may not defend as emphatically as they did for previous backups? Frankly, I think it's a red herring. The team needs elite talent. The key this year is not Allen, or Anderson or Toffoli, but Kotkaniemi and Suzuki. They need to be difference makers and if they are not, it will be a struggle to make the playoffs. Another huge concern for me is that defense. Petry gives up as much as he provides, I'm concerned that Chiarot played over his head last year, and that Edmundson is just another filler while the guys who might make a difference in a year or two (Romanov, Juulsen, Fleury and Kulak) will be relegated to more of a bench role than a development role because Julien. I watched some of the 2005 WJC tournament, where Bergeron was a key centre. He was terrific and I doubt Julien neither helped or hurt him in his development. The kid was going to be great because he is smart and had the skills and drive. Other than Bergeron, most kids under Julien did not blossom until he left. He just likes his vets and that's my eye test too, not just Bruin critics. Totally agree , it is a red herring. Well, load management is. No one would be talking of load management if we were winning. They'd be saying Price is a beast ...look at Martin Brodeur. He rarely took a night off , played 70+ games in 12 of his 20 seasons. Now I'm not advocating for playing Price that often, but the key to giving Price rest is not getting a great back up (wasting money), it's getting an offence that can win the easy games with a Zamboni driver in net. Bergeron ...the only hockey player ever to win a World Hockey gold medal, before winning a World Junior Hockey gold medal
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Post by habsorbed on Dec 28, 2020 13:23:41 GMT -5
Now I'm not advocating for playing Price that often, but the key to giving Price rest is not getting a great back up (wasting money), it's getting an offence that can win the easy games with a Zamboni driver in net. l Hold on: is the Zamboni part of the driver's equipment? You might be onto something?
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Post by GNick99 on Dec 31, 2020 16:32:55 GMT -5
As long as we don't get behind 8 ball early in season. Habs made major changes, with short camp and preseason games could be bad start to season. With injuries and players acclimated to each other.
Players can work out in gym all they want. Take power skating lessons til cows come home, practice all day long. But hard to replace game action and timing.
Especially with first 6 games on road. Leafs could be team to beat. They toughen up like Tampa did a year ago.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 8, 2021 13:08:32 GMT -5
The start of Dallas' season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers.
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 8, 2021 14:12:51 GMT -5
The start of the NHL season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. Hi Dis. I created a thread to keep track of all the COVID going-ons. I thought it might better to have a dedicated thread for it. habsrus.proboards.com/thread/21612/covid-cup
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 8, 2021 15:15:26 GMT -5
The start of Dallas' season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. Hi Dis. I created a thread to keep track of all the COVID going-ons. I thought it might better to have a dedicated thread for it. habsrus.proboards.com/thread/21612/covid-cup No worries, BC ... I moved the post over, but I saw you'd already posted the info ... makes sense to have a "Covid Cup" thread ... Cheers, mate.
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Post by Tankdriver on Jan 8, 2021 16:41:04 GMT -5
The start of the NHL season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. I thought it is just Dallas season that got pushed back.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 8, 2021 18:08:41 GMT -5
The start of the NHL season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. LA had more covid related deaths in 1 day than all of the homicides in 2019.... I'm shocked more US teams arent pushing back.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 8, 2021 18:34:46 GMT -5
The start of Dallas' season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. I thought it is just Dallas season that got pushed back. It is indeed, TD ... I'll fix that right away ... Cheers.
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Post by UberCranky on Jan 8, 2021 19:08:02 GMT -5
The start of the NHL season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. But...but..butt what about those ticket sales? Wait, I forgot..... They can do that, but now there is 6 fewer days in the season. At some point, they have to increase the players on hand and amend waivers. EDIT: Wait...is BC still dreaming his LHD dreams? Or was it LSD dreams? Too old to remember...
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 8, 2021 20:58:42 GMT -5
The start of Dallas' season has been pushed back to January 19th after six players and two staff members of the Dallas Stars tested positive for Covid-19 ... link ... Cheers. But...but..butt what about those ticket sales? Wait, I forgot..... They can do that, but now there is 6 fewer days in the season. At some point, they have to increase the players on hand and amend waivers. EDIT: Wait...is BC still dreaming his LHD dreams? Or was it LSD dreams? Too old to remember... Too old to remember ... odds bodkins! ... now he tells me ... happy new year, buds ... Cheers.
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