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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Mar 14, 2023 20:37:26 GMT -5
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Post by seventeen on Mar 15, 2023 12:13:03 GMT -5
Eight point game (Twice as important as a 4 point game). Florida cannot be allowed to sneak into the playoffs.
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Post by habsorbed on Mar 16, 2023 1:12:42 GMT -5
Eight point game (Twice as important as a 4 point game). Florida cannot be allowed to sneak into the playoffs. Sorry but I'm rooting for Fla in this game. This isn't about Fla sneaking into the playoffs. It's about improving our chances at getting Bedard, or as high a draft pick as possible. I think we got a better chance of picking up Bedard with a Mtl loss. No doubt if Fla finishes 11th worst we get a 3% better chance in the lottery. Meanwhile if Mtl falls further in the standings we only improve our odds by 1% per team that we let get ahead of us. But while that may be the straight math, one also has to look at the likelihood of those scenarios playing out. Fla is currently in 14th worst position. So for them too fall to 11th and be eligible for the lottery and first overall, they have to drop 3 places. That means based on the current standings, that 3 of 4 teams (Caps, Sens, Sabres and Wings) need to pass Fla. That ain't going to happen. It's possible one and maybe two of them will pass Fla which means Fla is in 12th place and not eligible for the Bedard lottery. In my view it is extremely unlikely Fla will fall behind 3 of those teams. In fact, I don't believe any of the 4 will do better than Fla down the stretch. Ott is toast and flaming out, and Buff and Wings are struggling. I don't think Caps are that good altho given Ovie and their experience they might pull it off. Bottom line: if Fla doesn't get to 11th, which is likely, we get no benefit for the Bedard pick. Meanwhile the Habs are in a very tight race. Were are currently 6th worst and could finish anywhere from 5th worst to 9th worst. Every lost point matters. Finishing 5th worst gives us a 8.5% chance at Bedard and 9th giving us a 5% chance. Straight up that's a 3.5% deferential which is more than the 3% pickup if Fla crashes. Moreover, we have a legitimate chance at 5th worst if we can let Philly get ahead of us. They are currently 1 point behind with a game in hand. That would improve our odds from 7.5% to 8.5%. Any points we gain may allow us to finish 9th worst and only get a 5% chance in the lottery. And lastly, leaving aside Bedard and the lottery, having the 5th pick over the 6th pick, is a lot more valuable than having the 11th pick over the 12th pick. The further up the draft one picks the less a few places matter. In the end, I believe it is much more important for the Habs to do poorly, than Fla. So I'm rooting for Fla tomorrow., Obviously, the last thing we want is a 3 point game. |
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Post by folatre on Mar 16, 2023 12:27:33 GMT -5
At this point, I concur with the reasoning from a Bedard-perspective that a Habs loss is preferable. However, let us hope the worst of all outcomes (i.e. a three point game) does not happen.
Allen better be ready to work. Florida comfortably leads the league in shots. It would not shock me if the Panthers blast a lot of rubber (45+) on net.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 16, 2023 13:20:08 GMT -5
I expect tkajerk to be an ass so our D better be ready to club him... I'm looking at savard, edmunson and guhle... darn I wish wifi was in this one
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 13:32:04 GMT -5
Eight point game (Twice as important as a 4 point game). Florida cannot be allowed to sneak into the playoffs. Sorry but I'm rooting for Fla in this game. This isn't about Fla sneaking into the playoffs. It's about improving our chances at getting Bedard, or as high a draft pick as possible. I think we got a better chance of picking up Bedard with a Mtl loss. No doubt if Fla finishes 11th worst we get a 3% better chance in the lottery. Meanwhile if Mtl falls further in the standings we only improve our odds by 1% per team that we let get ahead of us. But while that may be the straight math, one also has to look at the likelihood of those scenarios playing out. Fla is currently in 14th worst position. So for them too fall to 11th and be eligible for the lottery and first overall, they have to drop 3 places. That means based on the current standings, that 3 of 4 teams (Caps, Sens, Sabres and Wings) need to pass Fla. That ain't going to happen. It's possible one and maybe two of them will pass Fla which means Fla is in 12th place and not eligible for the Bedard lottery. In my view it is extremely unlikely Fla will fall behind 3 of those teams. In fact, I don't believe any of the 4 will do better than Fla down the stretch. Ott is toast and flaming out, and Buff and Wings are struggling. I don't think Caps are that good altho given Ovie and their experience they might pull it off. Bottom line: if Fla doesn't get to 11th, which is likely, we get no benefit for the Bedard pick. Meanwhile the Habs are in a very tight race. Were are currently 6th worst and could finish anywhere from 5th worst to 9th worst. Every lost point matters. Finishing 5th worst gives us a 8.5% chance at Bedard and 9th giving us a 5% chance. Straight up that's a 3.5% deferential which is more than the 3% pickup if Fla crashes. Moreover, we have a legitimate chance at 5th worst if we can let Philly get ahead of us. They are currently 1 point behind with a game in hand. That would improve our odds from 7.5% to 8.5%. Any points we gain may allow us to finish 9th worst and only get a 5% chance in the lottery. And lastly, leaving aside Bedard and the lottery, having the 5th pick over the 6th pick, is a lot more valuable than having the 11th pick over the 12th pick. The further up the draft one picks the less a few places matter. In the end, I believe it is much more important for the Habs to do poorly, than Fla. So I'm rooting for Fla tomorrow., Obviously, the last thing we want is a 3 point game. It's interesting how 2 people can look at the same thing but come to 2 different conclusions. In this case, the starting point is important. Your goal is Bedard and maxing the probabilities of getting him. I'm resigned to 'que sera sera' and if we get him great, but if not, I want the two best picks I can get. Neither of us is wrong, just having a different primary goal. The Habs, while not locked into the 6th pick, are probably going to finish in that 5-7 range. I don't see that improving any. There are 16 games to go, Anaheim is 6 points back, the loser point exists etc. etc. It's very hard for teams to make up points late and if Anaheim does pass us, I will celebrate, but I'm not counting on it. Then we go to Florida. Between Nashville and Detroit there are 7 teams separated by 6 points. Florida is 19th meaning we currently hold the 14th pick. The best case scenario is if Florida can go on a losing streak and get passed by the 4 teams behind them, that improves our pick to 10th. That is unlikely to happen, but even if they can fall to 21st, our pick would then be 12th and fall into the 2nd tier rather than being just out of it unless another team makes a mistake or goes off the board. So that's my reasoning. Get better picks overall rather than hoping for the the one big win (which is in play regardless). If Florida drops 2 places, it improves our Bedard odds the same as the Habs dropping 1 spot. We're not 'catching' Philly and Anaheim is a tough one too. Better to hope the Panthers fall. A convenient injury to Barkov would do it. |
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Post by PTH on Mar 16, 2023 16:06:46 GMT -5
At this point, I concur with the reasoning from a Bedard-perspective that a Habs loss is preferable. However, let us hope the worst of all outcomes (i.e. a three point game) does not happen. Same. Though I wonder if the analysis would be different if looking at top 3 picks, since picks 2 and 3 appear to be equivalent to normal #1 overall picks. Difficiulty of opposition could also change the analysis, since Montreal is unlikely to win many, regardless. I'm hoping that 5 games from the end of the season, final positions are fixed so I can root for my team again, rather than hope for a loss for a better drafting position. ----- Off topic... Adding a Fantili, pushing Suzuki to a strong #2 center role, would set us up very well without being a cap-dominating superstar like Bedard is projecting to be. I'd really like to see a lineup analysis based on the differential between a low-end generic roster and the analyzed roster, rather than raw cap numbers. I wonder if apair of non-dominating centers isn't the way to go (Kreijci and Bergeron being the perfect example) |
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:19:47 GMT -5
2-2 already? Allen in goal?
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 16, 2023 18:20:18 GMT -5
Habs...2 goals on their first 2 shots.
EDIT: Now 3-2 Panthers. After a good night vs. the Pens, Monty's not up to it tonight.
Good luck, Jake.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:21:15 GMT -5
Other way round. Allen coming in to replace Monty. 3-2 Florida.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:22:44 GMT -5
Jake stops the first shot. Whew.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 16, 2023 18:22:45 GMT -5
Poor Monty... 3 goals on 6 shots... lol
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 16, 2023 18:23:08 GMT -5
Now Pezz scores... jeebus
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:24:27 GMT -5
What a scrambly game. Habs playing pickleball with the puck in the Florida end and it ends up in the net. 3-3. Pezzetta I think.
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 16, 2023 18:25:07 GMT -5
Last shot wins.
Is that a record:
3 goals on the team's first 3 shots?
How about....
6 goals on the game's first 10 shots?
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 16, 2023 18:25:17 GMT -5
Pickleball is a good way to describe it... at least the fans are getting their moneys worth
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:28:50 GMT -5
Poor Monty... 3 goals on 6 shots... lol Bobrovsky...3 goals on 3 shots. Batting 1.000. |
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 16, 2023 18:29:42 GMT -5
How about 7 goals on the game's first 11 shots?
Incredible spectacle so far...
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Post by jkr on Mar 16, 2023 18:29:51 GMT -5
I have to agree with folatre's comments a while back about the goaltending of the wild card teams. Sorokin is the best of the bunch so if gives a big edge to the Isles.
Guys like Jarry and Bobrovsky are downright scary - for their own teams.
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:30:56 GMT -5
This is so bad I seriously can't watch it. It's worse than Men's Rec league hockey in Pouce Coupe, BC.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 16, 2023 18:31:08 GMT -5
Drouin+Hoffman+Kovacevic=Tank Success
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 16, 2023 18:33:23 GMT -5
8 goals on the game's first 13 shots?
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Post by seventeen on Mar 16, 2023 18:36:06 GMT -5
Can we suit up the Zamboni driver?
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Post by jkr on Mar 16, 2023 18:39:12 GMT -5
Poor Monty... 3 goals on 6 shots... lol Bobrovsky...3 goals on 3 shots. Batting 1.000. I guess a joke about having a few beers before warm-up is inappropriate with Spencer Knight being in the player's assistance program.  |
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Post by folatre on Mar 16, 2023 18:39:17 GMT -5
That is a BS call. The weasel Lomberg trying to keep Pezzetta off Gudas, jeje. As usual, the greasy Euro d-man likes to dish out physical abuse but sure as heck does not have the stones to drop the gloves.
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Post by Willie Dog on Mar 16, 2023 18:39:51 GMT -5
Did our goalie go out and party last night... wtf
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Post by Tankdriver on Mar 16, 2023 18:40:08 GMT -5
I just turned on the TV and did a triple take on the score and the amount of goals per number of shots....
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Post by CentreHice on Mar 16, 2023 18:41:25 GMT -5
Call Ripley's...
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Post by jkr on Mar 16, 2023 18:41:38 GMT -5
Did our goalie go out and party last night... wtf More like this afternoon. David Ayres would be better. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 16, 2023 18:41:47 GMT -5
Nice.
Florida owns the boys this year. Their heavy forecheck is too much for our D.
This is a goalie gong show though. Thought we would see tons more this year. Go figure.
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