Draft 2023

[NWTHabsFan]

I am quite late starting this thread given how bad the Habs were this season, but with the IIHF U18s starting today it is a huge event in the draft scouting calendar.

Here are some of the U18 kids to watch from the big countries:

Canada

Canada always misses a lot of guys due to the CHL playoffs still being very much in play. They still have a number of highly ranked kids. Despite their opening game stinker 8-0 against tough Sweden today, they should still be a threat for a possible medal if they play better than today.

Their top line is good. Centred by 2024 draft stud Macklin Celebrini (possible #1 as well as Eiserman from USA), he is joined by Colby Barlow and Andrew Cristall. Nick Lardis and Matthew Wood (NCAA) will also be counted on for offense up front. On D, two guys to watch who are definitely better at offense that stout defending are Lukas Dragecevic and Cam Allen. Price from the Dub is a good two way guy. In net, top ranked Carson Bjarnason will be the guy, but he got pulled in the first today. Ouch, but the team as a whole stunk.

Sweden

Another perennial medal contender, and they will be once again despite top ranked Swede Leo Carlsson ageing out (he will be playing at the Worlds though). Up front, they will be lead by Otto Stenberg with lots of help from Anton Wahlberg, Noah Dower Nilsson and dark horse David Edstrom. Their top defender is offensive minded Axel Sandin Pellikka (ASP) and Tom Willander is another to watch (a J20 teammate of prospect Adam Engström).

Czechia

Their top guy is skilled but inconsistent forward Eduard Sale. Their top defender should be Jakub Dvorak and the other top ranked goalie for this draft is Michael Hrabal who played in the USHL.

Slovakia

All eyes will be on highly ranked forward Dalibor Dvorsky. Like a lot of U18 forwards, he tends to excel at his age group level but struggles at the men’s club play. On D, their captain Maxim Strbak who plays in the USHL is the guy to watch as is 2024 eligible Jakub Chromiak from the Sudbury Wolves.

Finland

This team lacks star power, but the Finns are always a team whose sum is greater than its parts. The top forward to watch is Jesse Nurmi, but also watch for Jesse Kiiskinen and big bodied Kasper Halttunen. On D, 2024 draft stud Aron Kiviharju is the guy to watch.

USA

The US are always the perennial favourite as they send their NTDP U18 team that plays all year together and add a few stars from the U17 team. This is a loaded team, lead up front by super talented Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, Gabe Perreault and Oliver Moore from the U18 team. Call ups from the U17 team Cole Eiserman (top two in 2024) and James Hagens (2025 due to late birthday) are super studs and absolutely blew up the U17 challenge earlier this year. In net, Trey Augustine is the guy, and likely in the top three picked this draft with Bjarnason and Hrabal.

Enjoy the tournament as a lot of games are scattered across the various TSN channels. We know Hughes and others are there from the Habs as lots of potential guys available for the Habs with their picks will be on display in Switzerland.

[seventeen]

Moore and Smith are two US guys who need close scrutiny. Either may be available at our first pick and are legitimate possibilities for us. Both are centres. Whose talents will translate better at the next levels? Thanks NWT. And (not to rush you) I'm looking forward to your assessments, when the list is ready.

[NWTHabsFan]

Apr 20, 2023 13:14:55 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Moore and Smith are two US guys who need close scrutiny. Either may be available at our first pick and are legitimate possibilities for us. Both are centres. Whose talents will translate better at the next levels? Thanks NWT. And (not to rush you) I'm looking forward to your assessments, when the list is ready.

I will respond to the players you mention as it is right that the Habs will have both (and also likely power forward Leonard) on their radar screen for that first pick depending on where it falls after May 8th. You know I am a sucker who will respond to a chance to talk about draft prospects!

Everyone seems pretty hyped on Smith right now. He has a Hughes connection too, although I don’t see that being a big factor in the final decision. If they pick him it is because of his skills and project ability, not his connections. There is a lot to like. He has great vision and IQ and his playmaking it one of the best in the draft. He drives the play on offense, but he has definitely benefited from the top line role on a stacked team and playing with guys like Leonard and Perreault most of the year. He can probably work on his shot to get more power in it, but that can come with age as he develops more strength. The big knock on him is his defensive play (or general lack thereof). How many super skilled offensive guys have we heard that knock before? I think with his hockey IQ and in an environment that stresses two way play way more than this current NTDP does, he can round out his game. For now though, it is a weakness.

Moore’s game is all about speed. He is very fast and plays the game at pace. He is definitely a play driver who likes the puck in his stick and shifting into high octane transition play. His defensive commitment currently is better than Smith’s, but he definitely does not have that high end vision that Smith possesses.

In a draft with a lot of smaller and more skilled forwards, guys who can play the power game like Leonard will be of interest to lots of NHL teams as size still matters when the crunch hits in the playoffs. He has a very good shot and is a good player in his own right, but having an elite centre in Smith does help get him some pretty juicy pucks all year. He is not a huge guy but he plays that power game that will only get better as he grows and adds size and strength. I think he still slots behind the other two when it comes to the early first round, but you never know.

[NWTHabsFan]

Heidt added to Team Canada. He is a good one. I like his game.

[seventeen]

Apr 20, 2023 15:18:05 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Apr 20, 2023 13:14:55 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Moore and Smith are two US guys who need close scrutiny. Either may be available at our first pick and are legitimate possibilities for us. Both are centres. Whose talents will translate better at the next levels? Thanks NWT. And (not to rush you) I'm looking forward to your assessments, when the list is ready.

I will respond to the players you mention as it is right that the Habs will have both (and also likely power forward Leonard) on their radar screen for that first pick depending on where it falls after May 8th. You know I am a sucker who will respond to a chance to talk about draft prospects!

Everyone seems pretty hyped on Smith right now. He has a Hughes connection too, although I don’t see that being a big factor in the final decision. If they pick him it is because of his skills and project ability, not his connections. There is a lot to like. He has great vision and IQ and his playmaking it one of the best in the draft. He drives the play on offense, but he has definitely benefited from the top line role on a stacked team and playing with guys like Leonard and Perreault most of the year. He can probably work on his shot to get more power in it, but that can come with age as he develops more strength. The big knock on him is his defensive play (or general lack thereof). How many super skilled offensive guys have we heard that knock before? I think with his hockey IQ and in an environment that stresses two way play way more than this current NTDP does, he can round out his game. For now though, it is a weakness.

Moore’s game is all about speed. He is very fast and plays the game at pace. He is definitely a play driver who likes the puck in his stick and shifting into high octane transition play. His defensive commitment currently is better than Smith’s, but he definitely does not have that high end vision that Smith possesses.

In a draft with a lot of smaller and more skilled forwards, guys who can play the power game like Leonard will be of interest to lots of NHL teams as size still matters when the crunch hits in the playoffs. He has a very good shot and is a good player in his own right, but having an elite centre in Smith does help get him some pretty juicy pucks all year. He is not a huge guy but he plays that power game that will only get better as he grows and adds size and strength. I think he still slots behind the other two when it comes to the early first round, but you never know.

Have heard a bit more about the American kids, including Perreault. The comments on Smith echoed what you said above, NWT. Leonard was highly praised. The guy thought he was better prepared to be a pro than Moore or Smith, at this time. He was described as 'efficient'. Not flashy, but usually in the right place, right time.

Moore seems to be a guy with a fairly high ceiling because of that skating, but he has to learn (my opinion) how to vary his speed rather than going flat out all the time. Sneaky players know how to change their pace and throw off opponents' timing.

Perreault's criticism is all about skating. A good NHL proxy might be Mark Stone. The guy seems to always score, though, so does the skating matter as much as scouts fear? Perhaps. The NHL is all about speed these days, but it might be processing speed more so than physical speed. Hard to say. Perreault is a mystery. He could be Mark Stone, or he could be Jesse Puljujarvi.

The other fascinating question about the Perreault/Smith/Leonard line is which of the 3 really makes everything click? I keep referencing Puljujarvi/Aho/Laine. That line was dominant at the WJC, but as time has gone on, the guy you really wanted from that line was Aho, who didn't get picked until the 2nd round. Scouts were fooled as to who drove that line. Same question with that US NDTP line. Who drives the bus?

[folatre]

I try not to pay much attention to those goal and point totals that kids with the USNTDP put up because a stacked U18 National Team is just barnstorming around against vastly inferior USHL teams. I focus on how they look in international events and whether a kid's particular tool sets seems likely to be translatable to the NHL. Having said that, I understand the buzz around Smith. He is a toolsy, smart, play-driver. So it would be surprising if he does not have a nice career in the league once he matures a little more physically.

Moore is an eye-catcher of a prospect too. I can see why his stock was rising throughout the season. He will be long gone by the time Hughes makes Montreal's choice with the 17th overall.

I am not quite sure how I would feel about Perreault at 17. I know he scores goals but I cannot quite figure out what his sniper calling card is. Caufield was small and not really speedy but with him the lightning quick release and deadly accuracy always stood out.

If luck does allow the Habs to move up in the lottery, then in an ideal world Montreal would be set up to take a kid who projects to be a #1 d-man. But this draft is just so stacked with high end forwards (in particular centres) that any defense prospect would seem a reach among the first six names to come off the board.

[Andrew]

Two questions that I have: 1. Where does Michkov get selected & 2. Do the Habs take him if he's available in the 5-7 range should the Habs pick there?

On pure talent he's a no brainer top-3 pick, however, with his KHL contract and the war who knows if/when he'll make it to North America. Did I also read that his father just died under suspicious circumstances?

Too many red flags for my liking. This doesn't feel like a spot to gamble in, and I expect GMs and owners to be reluctant to choose him even if their scouting staff are drooling at the opportunity.

[NWTHabsFan]

In yesterday’s final round robin game for CAN, we saw a head to head for the two top projected goalies this draft in Bjarnason and Hrabal. Bjarnason got his mulligan with an awful outing in the opener against Sweden (five goals on seven shots), but he has been very strong since. And that Sweden fiasco was far from just in him. The D zone coverage was a shambles (it is a problem for CAN) and he was screened…a lot. Hrabal, by contrast, has been outstanding and came into it with the top save percentage. And then Matthew Wood (hat trick) and friends took over. He let in some softer ones and left after two periods. They each have had their mulligans now!

Dvorsky has really had two superb games. He was strong against CAN in a tight 4-3 loss and he single handedly carried SLO over GER in the last game with 4 goals and an assist on the ENG. He is a polarizing puck due to his underwhelming stats in the Allsvenskan against men, but he is showing he is still one of the top of this draft.

As for the Americans, they will be interesting to watch as the competition gets tougher and tighter. If all goes well in the quarters, CAN is on an unfortunate collision course with the powerhouse in the semis. That top line and 2024 Eiserman are getting a ton of press. I really do believe Smith has secured a top five spot based on his play driving, his elite vision and passing and his stick handling. I have documented his areas of improvement a few times already and they still exist, but he has alluring and projectable talent. Ditto with Leonard and his more of a power game. Moore and his pace will be of great internet as teams get to the end of the top ten. The big question mark is where does Perreault land. His forward skating is fine, he knows where to be on the ice, and he sure can pit them in when fed all those beauties from Smith, but that edgework and lateral movement need a lot of work and those are critical in being successful at a higher level.

On defense, Swedish ASP has been very good. RHD who is a wizard with the puck and controls a PP is a rare treat in this forward heavy draft. If only he is available at 17 😉. Dvorak on CZE has helped his cause. He is a big horse and logs tough minutes. Willander from SWE is getting too much exposure as I hope he is there at 37 😉, especially if they pick two forwards in the first.

The one guy whose weaknesses that I have seen live are getting exposed in this event is Andrew Cristall. I expect the top 7 or so conversations can stop now. He is good, but his size and skating issues are less projectable to me than Benson, who I still think will be better pro.

The underage and double underage kids are a treat to watch. I wonder when Hughes will pull the trigger on that extra CAL first round pick for Monahan. That is a team that should flounder for a few years now if all goes well 😜.

Quarter finals tomorrow across the TSN networks. Knockout time at the U18s now.

[NWTHabsFan]

Defender Morin will join CAN for the game tomorrow as an injury replacement. He is mobile and offensively inclined and is likely in the my top three from the Q along with forwards Gauthier and Cataford.

[seventeen]

Apr 26, 2023 13:33:35 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

The one guy whose weaknesses that I have seen live are getting exposed in this event is Andrew Cristall. I expect the top 7 or so conversations can stop now. He is good, but his size and skating issues are less projectable to me than Benson, who I still think will be better pro.

Reminds me of the criticisms of Brayden Point in his draft year (skating).

I only saw him in one game (can't recall the opponent, but not a strong one). He seemed to be ahead of everyone mentally, but wasn't keeping up on the backcheck. That mental aspect was impressive, though. He made a little flip pass on an offensive rush from his side of centre to a teammate who was on the rush, but his teammate didn't read it well and hadn't accelerated enough to get to the pass. Really smart thinking, on Cristall's part. He's a small guy, though, so I'd probably pass, but a pretty good gamble, IMO, for the 3rd round.

[seventeen]

Apr 26, 2023 13:36:05 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Defender Morin will join CAN for the game tomorrow as an injury replacement. He is mobile and offensively inclined and is likely in the my top three from the Q along with forwards Gauthier and Cataford.

That Canada defense is singularly unimpressive. I like Caden Price and Allen has shown flashes, but there's not a lot there.

[folatre]

The quarters look likely to be a bunch of mismatches but it seems every year one or two are tighter than expected.

You are right, NW. Dvorsky was impressive against Canada and dominant against a lesser opponent (Germany). I am interested to see how much he can drive play against Finland. The Finns are always willing to play a structured team game in order to neutralize a rival's star player.

[NWTHabsFan]

Apr 26, 2023 14:38:38 GMT -5 seventeen said:

Apr 26, 2023 13:36:05 GMT -5 NWTHabsFan said:

Defender Morin will join CAN for the game tomorrow as an injury replacement. He is mobile and offensively inclined and is likely in the my top three from the Q along with forwards Gauthier and Cataford.

That Canada defense is singularly unimpressive. I like Caden Price and Allen has shown flashes, but there's not a lot there.

Yeah, Price is the most reliable of the bunch. Gibson has had some decent moments for an under the radar guy. The rest have looked pretty unorganized at times in their Dzone coverage, including Allen in that mess of an opener (then again, who looked good that game?).

[NWTHabsFan]

Apr 26, 2023 19:48:20 GMT -5 folatre said:

The quarters look likely to be a bunch of mismatches but it seems every year one or two are tighter than expected.

You are right, NW. Dvorsky was impressive against Canada and dominant against a lesser opponent (Germany). I am interested to see how much he can drive play against Finland. The Finns are always willing to play a structured team game in order to neutralize a rival's star player.

A 1+2 game and a 3-2 win over the favoured Finns. Not bad!

Slovaks to the semis. The bonus is with a win, CAN would be the #3 seed in the semis and would now avoid a semi date with the USA. Huge!

[folatre]

It would seem most organizations will have Smith ranked in front of Dvorsky, but there is no denying some stud kids are getting picked outside the top five.

For sure, it is better to catch the USA in the gold medal game when the spotlight of the moment may cause some guys to play more risk averse hockey and dial the octane back a notch.

[seventeen]

A point not mentioned is that the US is looking dominant against a weak group. Canada, Sweden, Chezchia (sp?) and Slovakia make for much tougher competition. We saw evidence of that with the Slovaks "upsetting" the Finns. Maybe it wasn't an upset.

[folatre]

Will Smith with the hattie against Slovakia. He has been fantastic throughout the tourney. It occurs to me that Hughes may have him right there alongside Fantilli and Carlsson. As a sublime hockey talent Michkov should be right there too. But maybe management with additional input from Molson and/or Bobrov has already decided there are compelling reasons to avoid the Russian. So if Bedard, Fantilli, Smith, and Carlsson are the first four off the board maybe Hughes thinks ‘okay that sucks but no sweat because we are very clear based on our rankings which kid we want here.'

But maybe it is not going to be clear cut. I assume even in the earliest rounds there are cases where for a given slot in the draft two or more kids essentially hold an identical ranking according to all the data, metrics, and projections applied during the evaluation process. Thus, I wonder if a scenario could unfold whereby Habs management trades down.

Of course, such a scenario would be predicated on a team coveting a player at #5. I doubt a suitor comes from way down the draft order to make such a play because it would require more asset juice than they are likely comfortable giving up. But a team right behind the Habs (e.g. Arizona, Washington, Detroit, St. Louis) could put an interesting offer on the table. Well boys, anyone getting this vibe and what would it take asset-wise?

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Fellas, what's the difference between Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson ...

Cheers.

[NWTHabsFan]

Spoiler alert. The kid wins it for 🇨🇦 in OT. A bronze medal goal.

The top of the 2024 draft is going to be fun lead by Celebrini and Eiserman. Both had fantastic U18s as underagers.

[NWTHabsFan]

Apr 29, 2023 22:28:23 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Fellas, what's the difference between Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson ...

Cheers.

Stylistically, Fantilli plays a dominant power and skill game and definitely has shown this year in the NCAA that he has the chops to put up big numbers. Best player in the NCAA as a rookie is quite the endorsement.

Carlsson is a speedy slick puck handler who has great vision and pace. He has been playing well against men and is still with the national team in a key role as they prepare for the Worlds.

Both are superb choices, but I would give the edge to Fantilli as I see him more of a guy that can win you tough playoff games.

[NWTHabsFan]

It sure would be nice if a couple of the top end guys in the USA-SWE gold medal game are Habs prospects after the draft. Lots of talent on display today.

[seventeen]

Apr 29, 2023 22:28:23 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Fellas, what's the difference between Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson ...

Cheers.

My 2 bits 😄.

Both big. 6’ 2” or 6’ 3”. 200 lbs. No difference there. Both good skaters but Fantilli looks faster and is certainly flashier. Carlsson is efficient. Fantilli had huge points but in a definitely weaker league, so production itself is not a distinguishing factor. Oeter Forsberg had 17 points in 23 games in the SEL his draft year. Carlsson 25 in 44. Forsberg was almost a year younger, though. There may be other comparables. We might be debating who is better, years from now. Both good choices. Flip a coin. IMO.

[folatre]

The first installment of Bob McKenzie's final rankings was released this morning.

The top 12: Bedard, Fantilli, Smith, Carlsson, Michkov, Dvorsky, Leonard, Benson, Perreault, Reinbacher, Barlow, and Wood.

I imagine the rest of his rankings will be coming out soon, perhaps as early as next after the Lottery.

[seventeen]

The U-18's clearly helped Smith move up a lot. I keep thinking Carlsson is undervalued. What the 2 non-unanimous picks ahead of Carlsson have going for them is flash. They're good and they look good doing it. Carlsson is efficient. He's played against men the entire year (other than teen tournaments) and they are far more disciplined and defensively capable than CHL or NCAA or USHL guy. I'm not saying he has a higher ceiling or anything, but if we stay at 5 and those first 3 picks hold true and we don't have any qualms about waiting for Michkov, we're going to get a hell of a player. Either Carlsson or Michkov would be amazing and I would be thrilled to see Carlsson in a Habs uni. What a centre group that could be!

The other great thing, if soemone ahead of us takes Michkov, is that Carlsson is a better pick than Dvorsky, who still scares me.

[folatre]

I really like Dvorsky but I would certainly take Carlsson if he is there at number five. Unfortunately, I cannot imagine that he will be.

Assuming the Habs do not move up via the lottery, no doubt Hughes is already game-planning for the eventuality that Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and Smith are the first four off the board. Maybe Montreal would be elated to select an elite talent like Michkov. Maybe Montreal has already decided secretly (after all it would make no sense strategically to broadcast it) the organization will not take the Russian.

What intrigues me is the possibility a GM who is absolutely infatuated with Michkov's talent comes calling to grab him at #5. Then all kinds of questions start swirling. Should Montreal trade down or just pick whoever is fifth on their board? I guess it would depend on how the next cluster or tier of kids looks to Hughes. If he judges the kids 6-10 on his list to be essentially equal, then he might move down if Detroit or Washington or whoever made an aggressive offer. However, if Hughes sees separation between the kids in that tier then most likely he just sticks to his own script and takes the best player available.

[PTH]

May 5, 2023 16:18:23 GMT -5 folatre said:

...
What intrigues me is the possibility a GM who is absolutely infatuated with Michkov's talent comes calling to grab him at #5. Then all kinds of questions start swirling. Should Montreal trade down or just pick whoever is fifth on their board? I guess it would depend on how the next cluster or tier of kids looks to Hughes. ....

I've wondered the same about Michkov...

Of course, it also depends on the team calling - if it's a team just a pick or two after us, he can trade down more readily... if we're going down several spots, then it's as you say, it only works if they see several players as being similar in value, if we're going down to pick 12 or 15 or whatever it may be, it becomes a question of what else we're being offered. You have to figure these talks have to happen before the draft, though, since more significant assets would be on the move, both ways.

Habs management had a thing for Ostlund last year, if Buffalo offers him and pick #13 to get Michkov, are we onboard?

Saint-Louis offering #10 and the better pick of Dallas or Toronto ?

Washington has no issue with Russians, might they offer #8 and something interesting along with him ? Hendrix Lapierre ?

If Arizona stays at #6 and wants to pre-empt someone else, might #12 be on the table ? Given their arena situation, Arizona might be fine with a player who's only coming over in a few seasons...

If Michkov is on the board, I'd expect Hughes to make a move and try and get a kid with some development in him already, which he seems to believe in. I'm not sold on this approach, since while it lowers risk, it also lowers upside (the 19 or 20 year old trending to be a star won't be getting moved, other than in disfunctional organisations like Chicago, and there aren't that many of those).

[folatre]

In recent years (basically in the cap era for that matter), it is extremely rare for teams holding a top ten pick to trade down. And in the few instances I can think of the main piece going the other way was a young NHL player with term.

Calls could certainly start to heat up after the lottery on Monday. If he is holding the #5 pick, Hughes will certainly frame any discussions with GMs in terms of how uniquely elite the kids at the top of 2023 draft are and the opportunity to draft a difference-maker requires bold offers.

PTH, I think the trade ideas you started spitballing are very aggressive offers. Their fans would probably groan and say hey that is way too much, but Hughes could just dig in and remind the GMs calling 'hey this is a unique opportunity to acquire a superstar, we're not talking about the cost of a nice piece.'

[Cranky]

Guys just remember that we have a HIGHER probability of landing up in 6th then staying were we are.

Top of my head...8.5% for 1st, 8.5% for 2nd and 44% for 6th.

Time to get REALLY religious!

[Willie Dog]

I run that simulator and we spend a lot of time in 6th

[Tankdriver]

Same. 6 or 7th but with teams with such a small chance of winning too.

Seeing lots of smoke around the Habs drafting Dvorksy. I hope they get one of the top 5 guys.