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Post by folatre on May 10, 2023 18:45:39 GMT -5
Sure, Michkov is shoot first. With that God given ability to snipe, he should be shoot first. However, for me he is not similar to Caufield. Michkov is an offensive catalyst. Time will say but I see him more as a play-driver zone-entry machine in the Kane and Gaudreau mold who just also happens to rifle the puck like Matthews.
Obviously he needs to add muscle and work on being a more complete (attention to defensive details, consistent motor) hockey player. But the skill level is off the charts and if he were not a Russian under contract for three more years, every GM in the league would be dying to pick a kid like Michkov at fifth overall.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 10, 2023 23:28:50 GMT -5
Sure, Michkov is shoot first. With that God given ability to snipe, he should be shoot first. However, for me he is not similar to Caufield. Michkov is an offensive catalyst. Time will say but I see him more as a play-driver zone-entry machine in the Kane and Gaudreau mold who just also happens to rifle the puck like Matthews. Obviously he needs to add muscle and work on being a more complete (attention to defensive details, consistent motor) hockey player. But the skill level is off the charts and if he were not a Russian under contract for three more years, every GM in the league would be dying to pick a kid like Michkov at fifth overall. Lesson learned from Chicago, excitement sells tickets. US GM'c need to generate excitement which a MAYBE IN THREE YEARS doesn't do. Montreal fans want Michkov more than US fans do. Our fans were disappointed not getting Wright. |
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Post by Cranky on May 11, 2023 5:10:54 GMT -5
I finally watched the lottery and I have to admit. I'm impressed. I couldn't possibly do a better job of rigging whatever outcome I want with this "lottery".
You can bet the house that the entire lottery thing is about feeding the right market the right players.
Lemme see, which is a bigger market. Chicago, Anaheim or Columbus?
And the winners of this year lottery is...CHICAGO
SUPRISE!!
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Post by seventeen on May 11, 2023 9:30:22 GMT -5
There are journalists now writing articles now about how 'clean' the lottery process is, to counter all the 'conspiracy' thinking. No doubt they will bring up the Edmonton picks as examples of lottery luck, etc. What they won't bring up is the strange matter of certain US teams needing a boost, suddenly getting one when matters are dire. No doubt much of the time, the draws are simply blind luck. But when luck needs a little nudge, I can't help but think the NHL HO is there to kindly lend a pushing hand. If you only do that once in a while, it's easier to defend.
Hmm. Local morning radio station is just now playing "Lonely Bull". Private joke, fellas. We mods have to entertain ourselves during boring season.
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Post by Tankdriver on May 11, 2023 11:10:08 GMT -5
As much as I want to say it is fixed, I know it really isn't. The league will never do that as it would lose all credibility and sponsors. Each team is provided a list of combinations that they could potentially win with. It really is just the luck of the draw.
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Post by Andrew on May 11, 2023 13:26:54 GMT -5
Frank Seravalli wrote an article about his experience witnessing the draft. www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/the-most-intense-five-minutes-in-hockey-inside-the-nhl-draft-lottery-roomIt doesn’t rule out the possibility that it’s in some way rigged, however, it seems improbable. How do you go about setting up a machine to draw the combination of balls needed for one or more preferred outcomes? You’d need a few people involved in that conspiracy, as Bettman and Daly likely don’t have the engineering expertise to do it in their own. So how many people is Bettman trusting with his professional reputation? On the other hand, adding fuel to the conspiracy fire, is that both Montreal and Vancouver were among the first four teams ruled out after the first three balls were drawn. |
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Post by CentreHice on May 11, 2023 14:02:04 GMT -5
Transparency would solve everything.
The same odds/luck/chance and process exist with the curtain open, no?
The LIVE on-camera draw worked before. More excitement, actually.
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Post by Willie Dog on May 11, 2023 14:44:34 GMT -5
Frank Seravalli wrote an article about his experience witnessing the draft. www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/the-most-intense-five-minutes-in-hockey-inside-the-nhl-draft-lottery-roomIt doesn’t rule out the possibility that it’s in some way rigged, however, it seems improbable. How do you go about setting up a machine to draw the combination of balls needed for one or more preferred outcomes? You’d need a few people involved in that conspiracy, as Bettman and Daly likely don’t have the engineering expertise to do it in their own. So how many people is Bettman trusting with his professional reputation? On the other hand, adding fuel to the conspiracy fire, is that both Montreal and Vancouver were among the first four teams ruled out after the first three balls were drawn. There are such things as loaded dice... loaded lottery balls? |
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Post by Cranky on May 11, 2023 14:49:14 GMT -5
Transparency would solve everything. The same odds/luck/chance and process exist with the curtain open, no? The LIVE on-camera draw worked before. More excitement, actually. I watched lottery balls fall before my own...but in 2023, they can't televise it? I got a bridge to sell... |
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Post by Skilly on May 11, 2023 16:46:02 GMT -5
Frank Seravalli wrote an article about his experience witnessing the draft. www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/the-most-intense-five-minutes-in-hockey-inside-the-nhl-draft-lottery-roomIt doesn’t rule out the possibility that it’s in some way rigged, however, it seems improbable. How do you go about setting up a machine to draw the combination of balls needed for one or more preferred outcomes? You’d need a few people involved in that conspiracy, as Bettman and Daly likely don’t have the engineering expertise to do it in their own. So how many people is Bettman trusting with his professional reputation? On the other hand, adding fuel to the conspiracy fire, is that both Montreal and Vancouver were among the first four teams ruled out after the first three balls were drawn. I saw a tweet that said the balls were (guessing here, I’ll try to find the teeet) 4, 8, 9, 13 … and Vancouver was 4,8,9,12 |
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Post by Skilly on May 11, 2023 16:53:03 GMT -5
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Post by Willie Dog on May 15, 2023 12:21:36 GMT -5
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 15, 2023 12:48:01 GMT -5
Transparency would solve everything. The same odds/luck/chance and process exist with the curtain open, no? The LIVE on-camera draw worked before. More excitement, actually. No doubt the league will have extensive online betting on the lottery outcome to add to their coffers. it will be necessary to ensure the outcomes are not rigged. i remember the rigged betting on the time of the last goal and the even or odd scandal. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on May 16, 2023 11:00:25 GMT -5
Hearing that John Davidson in Columbus said they are committed to "taking a center" which if true would likely take them out of the Michkov hunt. Seems like it will come down to what the Sharks decide.
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Post by Skilly on May 16, 2023 11:22:52 GMT -5
I’d love to see MTL pull some sorcery out of their hats and swing a deal with Arizona and have the 5 and 6 pick. Especially if San José selects that Swedish defenseman
Can you imagine getting Smith and Michkov?
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Post by seventeen on May 16, 2023 12:57:24 GMT -5
Hearing that John Davidson in Columbus said they are committed to "taking a center" which if true would likely take them out of the Michkov hunt. Seems like it will come down to what the Sharks decide. Columbus taking a centre is almost like the sun coming up in the East. They are really weak there and with Carlsson and Smith both available it's a given. IMO, they'll take Carlsson. I think they will like (as I do) that Carlsson has played against men and put up numbers. The SEL is a pretty good league, even if it is somewhat defensive minded. The one fly in the proverbial soup to that analysis is that it's not 100% that Carlsson is a centre. He's played there in Juniour, but has played a lot of wing in the SEL. Then again, that was the same story with Elias Pettersson. If Kekalainen thinks Smith is the more 'natural' centre, they may go that route. An interesting fact, though we can always take it with a grain of salt, (because Button goes off the rails sometimes) is Craig Button's recent rankings where he has Axel Sandin-Pelikka at the #5 position. Michkov is at 4, so the guy he has dropped is Smith, to #6. I thought that was interesting as well as his comment that ASP reminded him of Sergei Zubov. Zubov was bigger but both are great skaters and think the game very well. Frankly, I would not be surprised at this point, if the Habs picked ASP at 5. Or traded down a spot or 2 if the teams below them are keen to pick a forward. He's 5' 11" - 176 lbs, so 2 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Zubov. He turned 18 in March, so he still may have some growing to do. I'd like to know how big other family members are. If siblings, parents etc are 6 feet or taller, he'll likely gain a few inches and fill out. If so, with that skating ability and hockey IQ, he may be a good pick, despite passing on Michkov. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on May 16, 2023 13:17:54 GMT -5
Someday I'd like to see the history of late risers in the draft and how they have done in the NHL. I recall that Kotkaniemi wasn't on anyone's radar as a top 3 pick in the months leading up to the 2018 draft and recent success aside, I think that was a reach and mistake pick by the Habs. Consensus guys like Brady Tkachuk or Quinn Hughes would have been smarter picks.
Until you mentioned it, most mock drafts I've seen had ASP in the #15 area. If he's really a top 5 talent then why has he been slotted at #15 for months?
I feel we already rolled the dice last year on a project in Slafkovsky. That pick still makes me nervous. In what is considered to be a strong draft in the top 5, I see no reason to be contrarian and reach for a late riser. Too risky, IMO.
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Post by folatre on May 16, 2023 21:47:54 GMT -5
Seventeen, I agree that Columbus is taking Carlsson. They need a centre. And their ownership family was not thrilled about spending big on Gaudreau while paying Werenski and Voracek huge dollars not to play hockey, so I strongly believe their GM is operating under duress to put nothing worse than a playoff bubble team on the ice in 2023-24. Therefore, picking a Russian winger who offers no short-term answer to where they feel they need to be in the standings and ticket sales seems like a non-starter.
I like listening to Button because he of his experience and personality. But, man, he can be all over the place with his flavor of the month. I think he was clinging to Sale being top six worthy even through the end of April. Then, the other day, he was forecasting Dvorsky at #5 to the Habs. And now the little Swedish d-man in that slot? Okay.
I would be floored (and nauseous) if Hughes picks Sale or Sandin-Pelikka at fifth overall. Dvorsky, well, at #5 I would not be thrilled though not because I do not see him developing into a solid 2C in the league but rather because Montreal should easily find a trade partner coming up to grab Michkov if management (Molson) is not willing to take the Russian kid. Basically I have Benson, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, and Leonard in the same tier. So if the Habs balk at Michkov for whatever reason, then I would rather trade down if it is a lock that one of those four will still be available.
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Post by seventeen on May 16, 2023 22:49:32 GMT -5
Until you mentioned it, most mock drafts I've seen had ASP in the #15 area. If he's really a top 5 talent then why has he been slotted at #15 for months? . It's Craig Button. He can rank someone anywhere he likes. Most services, as you say have ASP ranked further back. I've seen 10-15. He improved his stock at the U-18's so maybe that's where Button got the idea to move him up. Also, who knows where some teams would have him ranked. As you know, those can vary considerably. Good point about late risers. I was wondering that myself. Barret Hayton falls into that category too, but 2018 was weak for centres and if you showed anything and you were a centre, you got merit points. KK and Hayton both did, by teams who were desperate for centres. |
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Post by seventeen on May 16, 2023 23:01:58 GMT -5
I would be floored (and nauseous) if Hughes picks Sale or Sandin-Pelikka at fifth overall. Dvorsky, well, at #5 I would not be thrilled though not because I do not see him developing into a solid 2C in the league but rather because Montreal should easily find a trade partner coming up to grab Michkov if management (Molson) is not willing to take the Russian kid. Basically I have Benson, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, and Leonard in the same tier. So if the Habs balk at Michkov for whatever reason, then I would rather trade down if it is a lock that one of those four will still be available. Me too. Not interested in Sale or ASP or Reinbacher at 5. You either pick Michkov or trade down and get another first rounder as compensation. Some possibilities (with tweaking of course), is our #5 and 29 for Detroit's #9 and #17, or our 5 for Philly's #7 and their first rounder next year (I expect them to be a lottery team again). Or 5 and 29 for 7 and Joel Farabee. These might just be starting points, but the idea is to trade down, still get a guy we'd like (but not anywhere near Michkov ability) and add some more talent. My preference is still to roll the dice and just pick Michkov. Don't overthink it. |
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Post by Tankdriver on May 17, 2023 7:36:24 GMT -5
I really hope this doesn't turn into our like our last few drafts where we end up selecting late risers. KK was the wrong pick. Love him or hate him, Tkachuk was the right pick. I am not sure Slafkovsky is the player I would of taken either. Hopefully he turns out. It comes down to Carlsson, Smith or Michkov to me. If it isn't 1 of those guys, you trade down.
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Post by halihab on May 17, 2023 10:58:46 GMT -5
I really hope this doesn't turn into our like our last few drafts where we end up selecting late risers. KK was the wrong pick. Love him or hate him, Tkachuk was the right pick. I am not sure Slafkovsky is the player I would of taken either. Hopefully he turns out. It comes down to Carlsson, Smith or Michkov to me. If it isn't 1 of those guys, you trade down. It's Smith for me. |
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Post by Willie Dog on May 18, 2023 20:48:24 GMT -5
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 20, 2023 16:47:51 GMT -5
Hearing that John Davidson in Columbus said they are committed to "taking a center" which if true would likely take them out of the Michkov hunt. Seems like it will come down to what the Sharks decide. Why would any GM tip his hand as to what he will do. Why would anyone believe what they say. If Davidson says that it’s raining I stick my hand out the window to check. |
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Post by folatre on May 22, 2023 18:53:59 GMT -5
I get what you're saying, LA. Normally it seems wiser to keep everything under wraps. However, maybe the situation is unique this year with Columbus sitting at #3 and there being so many high end centres ranked in most experts' top tens. So Davidson is basically just saying hey we need a centre. Is it better not to let everyone know that he is not taking Michkov? Well, in this case, I do not think it matters because San Jose has given signals that they are most certainly considering Michkov so if any club wants to guarantee they get the Russian then they would have to jump in front of the Sharks. But would Columbus be open to trading down? I guess that depends on how Davidson and Kekalainen have the centres ranked. Are two or three of those kids compressed tightly or is there significant separation?
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Post by seventeen on May 23, 2023 2:25:49 GMT -5
[quote author=" folatre" source="/post/607761/thread" timestamp="1684799639"Well, in this case, I do not think it matters because San Jose has given signals that they are most certainly considering Michkov so if any club wants to guarantee they get the Russian then they would have to jump in front of the Sharks. [/quote] Maybe Grier is just trying to attract seekers for the Snitch. "We're definitely thinking of taking Michkov, wink, wink" |
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Post by Tankdriver on May 23, 2023 9:23:51 GMT -5
I've seen rumors out there of Montreal trading for #2. It would cost us #5 plus plus...throw in your combination of Calgarys first, Florida's pick this year, Roy, Montréals first next year, Mailloux, and Colorados second rounder.
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Post by Boston_Habs on May 23, 2023 10:56:42 GMT -5
I've seen rumors out there of Montreal trading for #2. It would cost us #5 plus plus...throw in your combination of Calgarys first, Florida's pick this year, Roy, Montréals first next year, Mailloux, and Colorados second rounder. That sounds like a lot in a draft with a strong top 5. Assuming they want Fantilli, the assumption is there is a steep drop down from Fantilli to Carlsson/Smith/Michkov if moving from #5 to #2 costs that much. I'm not sure that's the consensus view but scouts differ. |
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Post by Skilly on May 23, 2023 11:22:02 GMT -5
I've seen rumors out there of Montreal trading for #2. It would cost us #5 plus plus...throw in your combination of Calgarys first, Florida's pick this year, Roy, Montréals first next year, Mailloux, and Colorados second rounder. That sounds like a lot in a draft with a strong top 5. Assuming they want Fantilli, the assumption is there is a steep drop down from Fantilli to Carlsson/Smith/Michkov if moving from #5 to #2 costs that much. I'm not sure that's the consensus view but scouts differ. I’m still not sold on Fantilli. His WC numbers are not even as good as Slafkovsky’s. Plus that WJC interview still eats at my craw |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on May 23, 2023 12:06:12 GMT -5
Reading a mock draft on "The Athletic" and Scott Wheeler is predicting the Habs will take Ryan Leonard, RW, NTDP 5th overall ... this is despite Matvei Michkov still being available ... as for Florida's pick, it's looking like it might be the 31st or 32nd pick, just based on the way the Panthers are clicking right now ... still, Wheeler mentioned Andrew Cristall (mock draft 29th pick), LW, Kelowna ... what's the skinny on him ...
Cheers.
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