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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 23, 2023 12:37:00 GMT -5
I get what you're saying, LA. Normally it seems wiser to keep everything under wraps. However, maybe the situation is unique this year with Columbus sitting at #3 and there being so many high end centres ranked in most experts' top tens. So Davidson is basically just saying hey we need a centre. Is it better not to let everyone know that he is not taking Michkov? Well, in this case, I do not think it matters because San Jose has given signals that they are most certainly considering Michkov so if any club wants to guarantee they get the Russian then they would have to jump in front of the Sharks. But would Columbus be open to trading down? I guess that depends on how Davidson and Kekalainen have the centres ranked. Are two or three of those kids compressed tightly or is there significant separation? Agree! Hugo didn't open his hand last year until he walked up to the podium, and that was with the #1 pick secured. The Hab's are ready to contend next year. We won't see a team win five consecutive cups anymore with Bettman and his salary cap. The Hab's didn't deserve to get into the playoffs and they made it to the finals. Florida was stuck in 10th place and are headed to the finals. Boston, Toronto, Colorado, Tampa are playing golf while hungry hard working teams with less skill are winning. Just loading up with great individual players doesn't assure anything in a team sport. My picks in order are Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Smith and Carlsson. A normal amount of injuries and hard work will add enough points to get us into the playoffs. It didn't take Seattle and Vegas a five year reset/rebuild. Not convinced that Pierre-Luc Dubois is the leader we should spend cap money on. He was unhappy on two other teams. So was Drouin. We have a lot of talent that has underperformed. 200 foot game, grit, desire, teamwork, positioning; all under the salary cap. |
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Post by seventeen on May 23, 2023 13:26:45 GMT -5
Gritty, hard working teams endear themselves to a fan base, but let's look at the 4 teams who are left in the hunt for Stanley.
Vegas - Eichel and Pietrangelo fit the description of an elite centre and elite D-man. I keep waiting for Stephenson to regress, but the guy can skate, and he put up 65 points this year, which is decent for a #2C. Karlsson is a pretty good 3c. There's strength up the middle, an elite Dman to soak up big minutes and a pretty good scoring winger in Mark Stone. How they're doing it with back up goalies is a mystery, however.
Dallas - They have the elite Dman in Heiskanen and certainly have two excellent wingers in Hintz and Robertson. There are question marks at centre. Pavelski has been really good for a long time and with 77 points in 82 games, he's still a really good centre. But is he elite? I'm not convinced of that. Tyler Seguin and Wyatt Johnston are next in line, heading in opposite directions. Seguin is not what he was and Johnston is not what he will be, except in flashes. That's where Dallas falls down a bit. They have a guy considered a top goaltender but he's being beaten by backups and hasn't had the best playoffs.
Carolina - they have an elite centre in Aho but fall off after that in depth at centre. KK has Brind'amour's trust some games and not in others despite having good advanced stats. He may be a good 2C in time, but doesn't fit that description this year. They may not have an elite dman (Burns maybe) but they have 4 guys who are really, really good, so maybe that makes up for it. All 4 can log big minutes. Where they fall off is in the winger depth. Without Svechnikov and Pacioretty they are missing a lot. With those 2 guys playing, they'd be my pick to win it all. Stgefan Noesen has been one of those guys completely attracted to the crest on Bob's chest. If he could hit a corner or roof a puck, it might be 3-0 Carolina. Stefan Noesen on the top line. Sheesh. That's like Armia on the top line. Yeah, we've seen that in Montreal too, huh?
Florida - they have the elite centre in Barkov, and the scoring winger in Tkachuk. Forsling and Montour are either playing well over their heads or are having career years. Ekblad is a very good dman, but not elite. That's 3 guys, however, who are playing at a high level and can play big minutes. The 2c is Sam Bennett. His is a case where the refs (IMO) are making him a really good centre. He should be in the penalty box a minute out of every two given how much he interferes, hooks, holds etc. He's not normally a good 2C, but game management is making him one. And of course, Bobrovsky is covering up all the mistakes that normally would have eliminated Florida a while ago. The key here is the next game because Barkov is hurt and we don't know how serious the injury is. Maurice made some lame joke about Barkov attending a Bar Mitzvah instead of an MRI machine. It's gone the rounds and I still don't get it. Maybe because there's nothing to get. Without Barkov, Florida is missing that elite centre. Next game should be interesting.
But to get back to the original premise, none of these teams are only a gritty hard working group. They all have elite talent at some position or other and most at more than one position. Talent matters. You can have a good hard working team (Seattle good example) with all the character in the world and that will take you a long way (the semis or even the finals like the Habs), but at some point the piper has to be paid and only the elite guys have the wallet.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on May 23, 2023 15:49:46 GMT -5
Not convinced that Pierre-Luc Dubois is the leader we should spend cap money on. He was unhappy on two other teams. So was Drouin. We have a lot of talent that has underperformed. 200 foot game, grit, desire, teamwork, positioning; all under the salary cap. This is where I am with the PLD issue ... if Montreal lands him at the draft, it'll be his 3rd NHL team before he's 26 ... I don't have an alternative solution, but I'd pass on him ... he's got the talent, there's no denying that, but what happens when he starts taking criticism ... if he doesn't know by now, the francophone media seems to be a lot harder on their own, than they are over the Anglophone players, and I'm not sure how he'll handle that ... I just have a red flag with this guy, is all ... Cheers. |
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Post by Tankdriver on May 23, 2023 15:58:20 GMT -5
Don't forget Vegas has Theodore on defence. McNabb is a solid 2 pair guy.
Karlsson has scored 40 in a year and Smith and Marchessault are good wingers too.
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Post by Tankdriver on May 23, 2023 16:08:34 GMT -5
Back to the original subject, now I,very see Keller and the 12 for the 5th and Anderson plus a second.
Not sure I would do that.
Fantilli would be nice, although I know some aren't fans of his.
One thing is certain with HuGo, they aren't afraid to move up or down in a draft.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on May 23, 2023 17:45:36 GMT -5
Not convinced that Pierre-Luc Dubois is the leader we should spend cap money on. He was unhappy on two other teams. So was Drouin. We have a lot of talent that has underperformed. 200 foot game, grit, desire, teamwork, positioning; all under the salary cap. This is where I am with the PLD issue ... if Montreal lands him at the draft, it'll be his 3rd NHL team before he's 26 ... I don't have an alternative solution, but I'd pass on him ... he's got the talent, there's no denying that, but what happens when he starts taking criticism ... if he doesn't know by now, the francophone media seems to be a lot harder on their own, than they are over the Anglophone players, and I'm not sure how he'll handle that ... I just have a red flag with this guy, is all ... Cheers. PLD has been in the league for six years, He has yet to score 30 goals. Not saying he lacks talent (Drouin has talent too) but two different teams, lots of linemates, top lines and unhappy everywhere he went. Give him $9 million and make him a cornerstone?  ? Not my choice. |
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Post by folatre on May 23, 2023 18:19:04 GMT -5
Cristall's stock has been falling though, aside from doubts about how his size/speed translate into the NHL, I am not quite sure why. NW has likely seen a lot of him so he probably has ideas on why that may be happening.
The thing about all the mock drafts is that they basically do not attempt to predict trades, so Leonard is a reasonable (personally I take Carlsson, Michkov, or Smith) guess if one assumes Montreal stays put at fifth. However, Hughes is seemingly not the type of GM who is afraid to wheel and deal in the first round. Right now I feel it is likely (though not overwhelmingly so, maybe 65-35) the Habs pick at #5, but a lot of scenarios would not surprise me.
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Post by habsorbed on May 23, 2023 21:49:02 GMT -5
Cristall's stock has been falling though, aside from doubts about how his size/speed translate into the NHL, I am not quite sure why. NW has likely seen a lot of him so he probably has ideas on why that may be happening. The thing about all the mock drafts is that they basically do not attempt to predict trades, so Leonard is a reasonable (personally I take Carlsson, Michkov, or Smith) guess if one assumes Montreal stays put at fifth. However, Hughes is seemingly not the type of GM who is afraid to wheel and deal in the first round. Right now I feel it is likely (though not overwhelmingly so, maybe 65-35) the Habs pick at #5, but a lot of scenarios would not surprise me. I may be dead wrong but I have a lot of confidence in HuGo's ability to assess young talent, particularly Hughes. And way more confiedence tthan I had in the previous regimes. Hughe has spent his professional career hanging out with his young potential clients playing junior hockey. My guess is that after the 4th pick is made, HuGo will ask themselves whether they feel better about takin gtheir chances with another player later in the first round than the 2 or 3 players that are likely to go 5, 6, and 7. To that end, I believe if Michkov is around at #5 and some teams want to go big, HuGo will galdly accomodate, but for a hefty price. I'm good with that if they know the guy they want the can get later in the 1st round. I'd rather take Mich, but I will defer to HuGo's judgment. |
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Post by Tankdriver on May 23, 2023 22:59:50 GMT -5
I am not sold on HuGo yet. Those two Ranger picks in Kakko and Lafreniere has me being cautious. I know they were consensus pucks at where they were drafter but still....even Slafkovsky is a big ? Mark at this point.
I'm 80-20 the habs do something in the first round. That can be either pick being traded or trading for another 1st rounder.
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Post by seventeen on May 23, 2023 23:20:30 GMT -5
The thing about all the mock drafts is that they basically do not attempt to predict trades, so Leonard is a reasonable (personally I take Carlsson, Michkov, or Smith) guess if one assumes Montreal stays put at fifth. However, Hughes is seemingly not the type of GM who is afraid to wheel and deal in the first round. Right now I feel it is likely (though not overwhelmingly so, maybe 65-35) the Habs pick at #5, but a lot of scenarios would not surprise me. I'm projecting a bit here while trying to find a good metaphor for HuGo's decision at 5. I see Leonard as a Pacioretty type. A very good power forward who will score a high number of goals and provide solid all around play. Michkov is a Patrick Kane type, maybe? He kind of defies an easy comparable. Kane can score and set up guys as can Michkov. Michkov seems a little grittier if I can use that expression. He's more likely to be involved in some contact while Kane generally avoids it. That might actually be healthier. Both Kane and Michkov can shoot and both are excellent passers. Kane is a slightly faster skater IMO. Or was. So that's my Michkov and Leonard comparisons. You're never going to regret taking Leonard, unless Michkov becomes Patrick Kane. Which he might....or better. Tough call, huh? |
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Post by Boston_Habs on May 24, 2023 10:24:03 GMT -5
I don't think it's a tough call. You take Michkov is he's there. Full stop. To me it becomes interesting if San Jose takes Michkov and we are at #5 with the option of say Will Smith or trading down. Depending on how they feel about him and the quality of the next 5 guys on the board, a trade is certainly possible.
But there's no substitute for elite talent. I like the Patrick Kane comparison for Michkov. Who wouldn't want that? The other guys like Leonard, Dvorsky seem like decent but not high upside players and we have plenty of those.
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Post by Willie Dog on May 24, 2023 10:49:10 GMT -5
I don't think it's a tough call. You take Michkov is he's there. Full stop. To me it becomes interesting if San Jose takes Michkov and we are at #5 with the option of say Will Smith or trading down. Depending on how they feel about him and the quality of the next 5 guys on the board, a trade is certainly possible. But there's no substitute for elite talent. I like the Patrick Kane comparison for Michkov. Who wouldn't want that? The other guys like Leonard, Dvorsky seem like decent but not high upside players and we have plenty of those. We need a game changer... Michov could be that guy... you take them when they come up |
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Post by seventeen on May 24, 2023 12:58:37 GMT -5
I don't think it's a tough call. You take Michkov is he's there. Full stop. To me it becomes interesting if San Jose takes Michkov and we are at #5 with the option of say Will Smith or trading down. Depending on how they feel about him and the quality of the next 5 guys on the board, a trade is certainly possible. But there's no substitute for elite talent. I like the Patrick Kane comparison for Michkov. Who wouldn't want that? The other guys like Leonard, Dvorsky seem like decent but not high upside players and we have plenty of those. It's not a tough call for me either, but then again, it's not my money or my reputation. I was trying to see it from HuGo's veiwpoint. Gorton has been criticized for the Lafreniere and Kakko picks. The Lafreniere criticism is hard to understand. He was consensus #1. Everyone and their grandchildren would have made that pick so it's more a case of being unlucky enough to have the first pick that year. Montreal experienced that in, no not last year, but 1980 when Doug Wickenheiser was once again far and away the best prospect available. Kakko is a bit different, but not markedly so. He was part of a small number of guys in that second tier after Hughes. Any one of them might have gone second, but Kakko was considered to have a slight edge. In our perfect hindsight world, all the 'experts' come out and complain about why they didn't pick X, Y or Z. Well, fellas, put down your $100 and let us know who you're picking at #6? There's a whole group of guys in that range and any one of them could be awesome, or flop. Pretending, 3 years later, that you knew it was going to be Y, won't impress anyone. No one would have picked Cole Caufield 2nd overall, and yet there's a case for that, as well as Seider or Boldy or Byram and maybe even Dach. I'd be more amenable to hear criticisms of Gorton for drafting Kravtsov and Andersson. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on May 24, 2023 13:53:45 GMT -5
Sometimes you make the right pick in the moment and it just doesn't work out. I feel there is less reputation/career risk in taking the consensus guy and it not working out than going off script and getting burned later. Everyone would have taken Lafreniere in 2020, but so far that looks like a mediocre draft.
You have to be confident that a) Michkov's ceiling is lower than the scouting consensus and b) a guy like Leonard or Dvorsky is higher.
If HuGo is that plugged in, our scouts are unanimous to confidently pass on Michkov if he's there or trade down then I give him credit for conviction but he better be right. Otherwise don't overthink it. Projecting performance is hard, even at the top of the draft.
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Post by seventeen on May 24, 2023 14:23:37 GMT -5
It is safer, going along with the crowd. It is a fact, however, that taking risks is a big part of success. The trick is in taking a well calculated risk rather than just buying a lottery ticket where you're pretty much guaranteed to lose. We haven't had the benefit of seeing Michkov in recent tournaments against his peers, but there is a track record of comparisons before the Ukraine invasion. He was impressive then and his production in the KHL has done nothing to take the shine off. I pick him too, at 5.
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Post by IamCanadiens on May 24, 2023 22:13:25 GMT -5
There seems to be consensus on who the 5 best prospects are and their superiority over the rest of the pack. Bedard is a slam dunk at #1 and I have zero faith in any projected order of the next 4. I'd be happy with the choice of whoever is left of those 4 players. Can't wait until the draft.
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Post by folatre on May 24, 2023 22:51:16 GMT -5
For sure, IamCanadiens, I also see the tier under Bedard being Fantili, Michkov, Carlsson and Smith. So if I were Hughes, someone would have to come in very aggressively for the fifth overall to make me seriously consider moving down.
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Post by Andrew on May 25, 2023 12:38:22 GMT -5
I don't think it's a tough call. You take Michkov is he's there. Full stop. To me it becomes interesting if San Jose takes Michkov and we are at #5 with the option of say Will Smith or trading down. Depending on how they feel about him and the quality of the next 5 guys on the board, a trade is certainly possible. Detroit could be a viable trading partner if that's the route the Habs go. Would picks #9 and #17 be fair value for pick #5? At #9 at least one of Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson, Dvorsky would be available. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on May 25, 2023 17:16:21 GMT -5
Cristall's stock has been falling though, aside from doubts about how his size/speed translate into the NHL, I am not quite sure why. NW has likely seen a lot of him so he probably has ideas on why that may be happening. The thing about all the mock drafts is that they basically do not attempt to predict trades, so Leonard is a reasonable (personally I take Carlsson, Michkov, or Smith) guess if one assumes Montreal stays put at fifth. However, Hughes is seemingly not the type of GM who is afraid to wheel and deal in the first round. Right now I feel it is likely (though not overwhelmingly so, maybe 65-35) the Habs pick at #5, but a lot of scenarios would not surprise me. I have always liked Benson better than Cristal as I feel his skills are more projectable in the pros. Cristal is skilled in the offensive zone, but he definitely lacks ideal size and skating. I find his overall IQ lower than Benson, who just has a knack of finding open space as his four way skating is not superb, but his IQ and ability to get open does work well. I think Benson game on the defensive side is also more advanced. Yes, I have seen both live (and on tv) this season and even live on the same Hlinka game last August. |
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Post by folatre on May 27, 2023 11:09:52 GMT -5
The Hockey News latest mock draft has the Habs selecting Smith at #5, though the author opined Montreal should take Moore.
The weird thing is they had Sale falling all the way to the Habs at #31. For me this seems impossible, though there is no denying evaluations of the young Czech winger vary wildly. From a simple talent perspective, that could be one of the steals of the century. Craig Button's head would explode because he has been busy comparing Sale to Pastrnak.
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Post by seventeen on May 27, 2023 17:09:00 GMT -5
That Hockey News Draft is either one scout’s opinion or that of mostly 1 guy or an attempt to generate controversy. For example, Moore is a fine centre but few have him jumping to the 5 spot. Smith may not be quite as fast or defensively responsible as Moore, but he changes pace and creates openings that Moore has not shown yet that he is capable of. He is superior offensively and is considered to have a higher ceiling than Moore. I’d pick Leonard for sure ahead of Moore.
And I doubt Sale falls anywhere south of 20. There were a few others that varied a lot from Bob McKenzie’s list which is fairly accurate.
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Post by folatre on May 27, 2023 18:28:05 GMT -5
For sure, Sale would actually be a nice high risk/high reward bet in the late teens. Unless he is just a bad kid with character warts being discovered as clubs dig around, I cannot fathom how a talent like him falls to the bottom of the first round. I get it that some scouts see Sale as a pure finesse type winger and that his motor is intermittent, but if those are the only issues it would be crazy to see him drop lower than #20.
I cannot say with certainty, but I do not believe I ever saw Moore projected higher than #7, and generally the consensus seems to be in the 8-12 range.
Hockey is debatable, in particular with the future projection of 18 year old kids. Yet assuming Montreal does not trade down, I will be scratching my head if the name is not Michkov or Smith.
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Post by Willie Dog on May 30, 2023 9:52:54 GMT -5
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Post by folatre on May 31, 2023 18:15:15 GMT -5
I need the draft like tomorrow. My son got home from school and said one of his buds after the final bell showed him a mock draft where the Habs picked Cristall at #5. Okay, now I will play the role of Captain Obvious and point out that cyberspace abounds with non-serious content...
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Post by jkr on May 31, 2023 18:38:37 GMT -5
Funny story folatre. 😀
I'm waiting for the mock draft where Bedard falls to # 5.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on May 31, 2023 21:12:53 GMT -5
That Hockey News Draft is either one scout’s opinion or that of mostly 1 guy or an attempt to generate controversy. For example, Moore is a fine centre but few have him jumping to the 5 spot. Smith may not be quite as fast or defensively responsible as Moore, but he changes pace and creates openings that Moore has not shown yet that he is capable of. He is superior offensively and is considered to have a higher ceiling than Moore. I’d pick Leonard for sure ahead of Moore. And I doubt Sale falls anywhere south of 20. There were a few others that varied a lot from Bob McKenzie’s list which is fairly accurate. Sale’s problems are inconsistencies, which don’t necessarily mean they are chronic but it causes concerns amongst scouts when the competition is so strong. He can be a very good player. At times he has shown the talent. Just needs to show it more and be more engaged in the overall game. I like Moore…a lot. He has speed and drives the play (Smith tends to not drive possession and transition on his line, but he gets off Ozone touches as he sets up the play with his elite vision and passing). Moore, Benson and Leonard have to be serious considerations once the top five go. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on May 31, 2023 21:14:33 GMT -5
My not-so-hot take: Michkov is at worst a top five pick. |
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Post by seventeen on May 31, 2023 21:42:40 GMT -5
Agreed. I will be very disappointed if Michkov is there at 5 and the Habs pass on him. I can wait the 3 years, knowing that after those 3 years (in all likelihood) we'll have a star joining an already well developed group. Just think of a better Kiril Kaprizov. Matador Michkov.
the 6th pick is going to be really interesting as you point out. Those 3 guys would be next on my list, too.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 9, 2023 10:44:35 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Jun 9, 2023 13:13:47 GMT -5
Word out of the combine is that players were saying that Montreal gave the hardest interview session.
Without interviewing Michkov, I don’t think the Habs select him
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