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Post by folatre on Jul 6, 2023 21:23:56 GMT -5
I get what you are saying, Skilly. But Newhook did not debut in the league until he was a 20 year old, while Dach got thrown to the lions at 18 years old. So strictly comparing what they produced on their ELCs is murky at best.
ELC productivity is one factor, no doubt about it. But another big driver is how management perceives the ceiling and uniqueness of each player in question. Therefore, two players who produced the same numbers on their respective ELCs may not get identical second contracts.
I presume that Dach got $3.3 million because management believed he is a 6’4” centre who could put up nice numbers on a two-year bridge and thus command far more in the summer of 2024 in that scenario. So Montreal avoided that eventuality by pushing his third NHL contract further into the future (July 2026).
Newhook could certainly break into the $3 million+ tier during his camp’s negotiations with Hughes this summer. But I would say that is not going to happen on a two or three year contract. The kid has no leverage here so if he wants to bet on himself and he believes he could put up 50+ points per season on a bridge then that is what he should do. Obviously Hughes likes his potential so I am sure that Montreal will give him three different options with regard to term.
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Post by Cranky on Jul 6, 2023 23:33:25 GMT -5
There is a serious problem if you pay Newhook more then the market value.
He's not an elite player or anything special right now. He's a 30 pointer that has an army of rookies chasing him. In fact, he's competing for ice time with Pinard, who signed a 1.1 million contract.
If he gets payed 3x3 and still a 30 point player by the end of that term, he's dead meat. He's not getting another contract from the Habs unless Hughes is a closet Bergevin.
In 3 years, we better have at least 5 rokkies who are better then 30 point or else it's going to be a 10 year rebuild.
I expect that he's going to get a 2.5x2 based on potential then actual current value. In 2 years, if he's a 50 pointer, then the bigger money will flow.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 7, 2023 5:51:41 GMT -5
I get what you are saying, Skilly. But Newhook did not debut in the league until he was a 20 year old, while Dach got thrown to the lions at 18 years old. So strictly comparing what they produced on their ELCs is murky at best. ELC productivity is one factor, no doubt about it. But another big driver is how management perceives the ceiling and uniqueness of each player in question. Therefore, two players who produced the same numbers on their respective ELCs may not get identical second contracts. I presume that Dach got $3.3 million because management believed he is a 6’4” centre who could put up nice numbers on a two-year bridge and thus command far more in the summer of 2024 in that scenario. So Montreal avoided that eventuality by pushing his third NHL contract further into the future (July 2026). Newhook could certainly break into the $3 million+ tier during his camp’s negotiations with Hughes this summer. But I would say that is not going to happen on a two or three year contract. The kid has no leverage here so if he wants to bet on himself and he believes he could put up 50+ points per season on a bridge then that is what he should do. Obviously Hughes likes his potential so I am sure that Montreal will give him three different options with regard to term. Dach received a 4 year deal |
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Post by seventeen on Jul 7, 2023 15:00:19 GMT -5
There is a serious problem if you pay Newhook more then the market value. He's not an elite player or anything special right now. He's a 30 pointer that has an army of rookies chasing him. In fact, he's competing for ice time with Pinard, who signed a 1.1 million contract. If he gets payed 3x3 and still a 30 point player by the end of that term, he's dead meat. He's not getting another contract from the Habs unless Hughes is a closet Bergevin. In 3 years, we better have at least 5 rokkies who are better then 30 point or else it's going to be a 10 year rebuild. I expect that he's going to get a 2.5x2 based on potential then actual current value. In 2 years, if he's a 50 pointer, then the bigger money will flow. This is where projection is important. Dach, a 26 point player, was signed to 4 x 3.36 not because Hughes was paying a 26 point player. He was paying for the 26 points plus the extra 26 he was hoping to get and if Dach had been healthy the whole year, he would have earned exactly that. Right now we think it's a very team friendly contract. I doubt many HabsRus posters have seen much of Newhook so it's understandable to look at the numbers and ask "why did we trade for a 30 point scorer and give up a late first and early 2nd for him? Like I frequently say, "You get what you pay for". We could have had Lars Eller for less, but then we'd be getting Lars Eller (bless his soul). Alex Newhook is expected to be much more than a 30 point guy and I agree with Hughes that he will be. I like how he plays. He's ideal for the fast paced game MSL wants us to play. Put him on the top 6 and he'll pop 50 points, easily. My opinion of course, but when have I ever steered you wrong? (Skilly races around searching for old posts  ). |
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Post by folatre on Jul 7, 2023 16:43:50 GMT -5
I know he got a four-year deal. On a bridge, Dach would have been looking at $2.5-$2.75 million per. The AAV went up because Dach passed on the bridge.
Regarding Newhook, I think it is going to depend on what he wants. If he wants his contract two years from now to start with the $ number 4 or 5, then he should take a two-year bridge at $2.5, play hard, and drive offense. If he wants peace of mind and for his current money to be in the low or high $3 range, then he should either go medium-term (4 years) or long-term (6 years).
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Post by PTH on Jul 7, 2023 21:09:38 GMT -5
I know he got a four-year deal. On a bridge, Dach would have been looking at $2.5-$2.75 million per. The AAV went up because Dach passed on the bridge. ... How did he pass on a bridge? To me a bridge is any contract that doesn't eat into UFA years, after the ELC. Dach's contract is, to me, a textbook example of a bridge contract. |
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Post by folatre on Jul 7, 2023 21:59:17 GMT -5
Good point, PTH. I do not think there is an exact definition.
For me most people associate a bridge as something short-term for a RFA, whether because the club has not seen enough to go beyond 2-3 years or because the player wants to maximize his next contract by outperforming a 2-3 deal.
My point is simply that I imagine Dach had a short-term contract option from the Habs and he could have picked something like a two-year contract rather than agreeing to a four-year contract.
It may come down to how one defines short-term, medium-term, and long-term. For me short-term is basically 1-3 years; medium-term is 4-5 years; and long-term is 6+.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 10, 2023 18:53:55 GMT -5
It seems that Alex Newhook will wear #15. He wore #15 at the WJC.
My favourite player, Bobby Smith, wore #15. But since he went back to Minnesota the number has not had much luck.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 10, 2023 20:10:09 GMT -5
Awesome!!
Bobby Rousseau's number! Great player.
Also Bert Olmstead, Jean-Guy Gendron, CLaude Larose, Reggie, and most recently KK.
I love it... easy to remember small numbers.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 10, 2023 21:47:56 GMT -5
Where all the number 15 speculation came from! People can switch their KK nameplates over now lol.
I am still waiting for a worthy #27 to change an old nameplate.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 10, 2023 21:55:54 GMT -5
Where all the number 15 speculation came from! People can switch their KK nameplates over now lol. I am still waiting for a worthy #27 to change an old nameplate. Me too... also my daughter bought me an autographed Pleky jersey for Christmas one year..no idea why except she was working at costco at the time and they had a sports memorabilia setup and she figured she get that for e... its hanging in the closet while the other signed ones are in frames. |
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Post by PTH on Jul 11, 2023 8:10:09 GMT -5
4 years, 2.9M.
I assume he is still an RFA at the end.
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Post by jkr on Jul 11, 2023 8:26:15 GMT -5
Yes, Capfriendly says he is RFA at the end of this deal.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 11, 2023 8:43:29 GMT -5
There's where I had him ... around 3 million ....close to Dach.
Fair deal, in my opinion
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 11, 2023 8:55:02 GMT -5
Very good deal for the team. Max term of the bridge while still keeping him a RFA with one year to UFA at the end. Good cost control for four years while the cap will start to go up.
Newhook gets a nice boost off his ELC in this bridge and still is motivated to have some good years to show his potential to make his big payday on his next deal. Very similar to the Dach situation.
Three RFAs left now: Ylönen, Beaudin, and Condotta. That will bring the team up to 46 of 50 contracts. We know HuGo are trying to move out at least one of the laggard forwards to create roster/contract space. I can see them maxing out at around 47 contracts to leave some flex to be a cap broker down the road (trade deadline if the team is not making the playoffs) or to add a guy if he can get someone young with upside on the cheap (again).
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Post by folatre on Jul 11, 2023 9:46:28 GMT -5
Montreal should be quite pleased with this. And I believe Newhook made a solid decision going medium-term. It reduces the pressure on him.
The difference between the money Dach got and the money Newhook got is not massive, though it is not insignificant. But I think that it is explainable by the future projections Hughes made with respect to each player.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 11, 2023 9:57:43 GMT -5
Can't see Newhook getting more than Dach. I'm thinking $3 million at most regardless of term. Like I said. This is good deal for both as Habs will be big winners if he develops as they believe given what they gave up, and if he doesn't then it won't be a Drouin or Hoffman fiasco to the cap. Newhook has gone from $1 million to $3 million and hasn't doen a whole lot so he's got to be happy. Now it's time to prove himself. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 11, 2023 10:36:44 GMT -5
I love this deal... I wonder who else HuGo can grab from the 2019 1st round
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Post by Tankdriver on Jul 11, 2023 11:15:29 GMT -5
I love this deal... I wonder who else HuGo can grab from the 2019 1st round Wouldn't mind Spencer Knight (FLA) or Samuel Poulin (Pitts). There is also Ryan Suzuki (Car). There is actually a lot of good players in the first two rounds.... |
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Post by Cranky on Jul 11, 2023 13:16:00 GMT -5
IF...IF he develops to a 50 point center or winger, it's worth it.
IF he's a 30 point tweener, it was a waste of assets and money.
There seems to be too much up close commitment by Hughes in a former client. We will find out if that was blind commitment or insight within 6 months.
I remain neutral and cautious...
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Post by Andrew on Jul 11, 2023 13:45:30 GMT -5
I think it's a good bet. Newhook put up great numbers in junior and college. He's still only 159 games into his career, and at the point where most offensive players are ready to take the next step.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 11, 2023 13:48:12 GMT -5
IF...IF he develops to a 50 point center or winger, it's worth it. IF he's a 30 point tweener, it was a waste of assets and money. There seems to be too much up close commitment by Hughes in a former client. We will find out if that was blind commitment or insight within 6 months. I remain neutral and cautious... Douin is gone and so is his 5.5 cap hit, so 2.9 still leaves them with 2.6 freed up and you have a motivated young player who goes to the front if the net with out the puck and drives to the front of the net with the puck. |
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Post by seventeen on Jul 11, 2023 13:48:56 GMT -5
Mr. Newhook will earn more in one year than I earned in 3 decades. Now, I'm no longshoreman, but that's still a lot of money. A LOT of money.
Still....I know a guy who is an average NBA player. He makes more than some countries' GDP.
One thing I can conclude from Hughes tenure so far...he is much better at contracts than ole Bergie. The player agent experience is indeed coming in handy. I think he can see things from the player perspective that most GM's can't. I haven't seen him screw any player contract wise and he hasn't been taken to the cleaners that way either. One can always pick holes in deals, but usually, the holes are equally on both sides when Hughes is involved. It's a very good way to do business.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 11, 2023 16:05:04 GMT -5
The Newfoundland Man of Mystery finally gets let loose on the Montreal media now that his deal is done.
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). 
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