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Post by Cranky on Aug 27, 2023 6:05:15 GMT -5
I'm not sure why there is emphasis about "mens" league. Shirley the fact that in the Swiss league there is such a low percentage of drafted player should be an indication of the level of competition.
If playing against man was an important metric, any 15 year old could skate circles around our beer league. Yes I'm exaggerating but the point about "boys" in a man's league needs more then just age as a metric.
These are not physically tough leagues were hitting and in-your-face hockey challenges 16-17 year olds against 25 year olds. X would have a field day as a 16 year old if he played in the Swiss league, just before they banned him. On the other hand, in the OHL he had 84 pims and total of 11 fights. Remember that he stepped into the NHL.
Going back full circle to Rein, that's why I wanted him to go directly to the AHL. If he's already graduated, why send him back for more of what he already does.
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Post by Skilly on Aug 27, 2023 8:03:37 GMT -5
Well, there are a limited number of roster spots in the NHL (excluding goalies, it is basically 32 x 20, so that's 640 guys), thus almost all really talented 18 or 19 year old kids could not even sniff making an NHL team. Look, I love the respective leagues of the CHL. They are a great training ground for hard working kids who love hockey and have the pro dream. My whole point is simply that the competition for a young kid is tougher in the first division Euro leagues, not that is necessarily the better development path. And for us Habs fans, we should probably take heart in the fact that Reinbacher, in his draft year, played quite well in a men's league. The other issue of how comparable kids in the Euro leagues are to kids in the CHL or USNTDP/USHL/NCAA is not going to settled by trying to definitively judge the quality of the leagues. Picking the right kids requires good amateur scouts and astute talent evaluators heading up the department of amateur scouting, as well as upper management being forward-looking enough to not succumb to the temptation to pick for positional need in the early rounds. Thank you, that's my point. I don't mean to be coming across as judging the quality of the league. (Though I admit it may have come across as such). My point is we seem to have gotten into this pattern of drafting first rounders because they played against men, in men's leagues. However, when you dive deep into the numbers, they did not exactly dominate, and then it showed up when they played against their peers. What is the mantra on here? Let them "dominate" somewhere. Ok. Where? In some cases we are drafting on very small sample sizes. With the whiff on Kotkaniemi, and the lost year of development for Slafkovsky, ... it should make you more cognizant that just playing in a men's league may not be enough. That's not to say we can't miss on CHL players (and we have missed) , and I'm not advocating just draft first rounders from the CHL ... but it is way easier to see the "domination" of someone in the CHL, or AHL. Anyway. I apologize again |
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Post by seventeen on Aug 27, 2023 13:54:05 GMT -5
The main reason I take into account where a guy has played is because quality of competition matters. How many guys have we seen who are big dominating guys in juniour and fail to make the NHL because their main advantage in Juniour was their size in comparison to their opposition? Auston Matthews left the US National Development team in his draft year and played in the tougher Swiss league. He still put up good numbers and acclimated somewhat to playing against bigger, more mature players.
The main reason more guys weren't drafted out of Switzerland is because it is a developing country in hockey terms. There just weren't that many kids playing hockey to improve the quality. But players like Roman Josi, Timo Maier and Nico Hischier prove that you can find some real quality from Switzerland. They have been getting better, as has Germany. Seider and Stutzle are just the two latest after Draisaitl. Keep an eye out on JJ Peterka, drafted 34th overall in 2020 by Buffalo. I liked what I saw from him in his rookie season.
Back to the point of my reply, 'playing against men' is just another category of assessment. If one league is faster than another, that would have to be taken into account. Or lower scoring, etc.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Aug 27, 2023 18:46:39 GMT -5
I'm not sure why there is emphasis about "mens" league. Shirley the fact that in the Swiss league there is such a low percentage of drafted player should be an indication of the level of competition. If playing against man was an important metric, any 15 year old could skate circles around our beer league. Yes I'm exaggerating but the point about "boys" in a man's league needs more than just age as a metric. . In the US The emphasis is on Men’s Leagues as opposed to playing in women’s league by trans men. The big difference between men and teens is strength and not skill or speed. I am always amazed at the lack of strength in the pre draft combine tests by highly ranked prospects. I can out bench press many of them but my skill and speed (or lack thereof) isn’t close. |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Aug 27, 2023 18:57:08 GMT -5
I'm not sure why there is emphasis about "mens" league. Shirley the fact that in the Swiss league there is such a low percentage of drafted player should be an indication of the level of competition. If playing against man was an important metric, any 15 year old could skate circles around our beer league. Yes I'm exaggerating but the point about "boys" in a man's league needs more then just age as a metric. These are not physically tough leagues were hitting and in-your-face hockey challenges 16-17 year olds against 25 year olds. X would have a field day as a 16 year old if he played in the Swiss league, just before they banned him. On the other hand, in the OHL he had 84 pims and total of 11 fights. Remember that he stepped into the NHL. Going back full circle to Rein, that's why I wanted him to go directly to the AHL. If he's already graduated, why send him back for more of what he already does. The OHL is often focused on winning games and not development. There is a lot of trading between teams that have a chance to win it all giving up future draft choices fo success today. Sometimes there is a huge gap between the strong teams and the weak sisters. Playing against a weaker team allows ranked players to rack up points and try their skills. Playing for a stronger team may limit ice time for developing players. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Aug 30, 2023 18:39:54 GMT -5
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Aug 31, 2023 16:57:26 GMT -5
Well, there are a limited number of roster spots in the NHL (excluding goalies, it is basically 32 x 20, so that's 640 guys), thus almost all really talented 18 or 19 year old kids could not even sniff making an NHL team. Look, I love the respective leagues of the CHL. They are a great training ground for hard working kids who love hockey and have the pro dream. My whole point is simply that the competition for a young kid is tougher in the first division Euro leagues, not that is necessarily the better development path. And for us Habs fans, we should probably take heart in the fact that Reinbacher, in his draft year, played quite well in a men's league. The other issue of how comparable kids in the Euro leagues are to kids in the CHL or USNTDP/USHL/NCAA is not going to settled by trying to definitively judge the quality of the leagues. Picking the right kids requires good amateur scouts and astute talent evaluators heading up the department of amateur scouting, as well as upper management being forward-looking enough to not succumb to the temptation to pick for positional need in the early rounds. Thank you, that's my point. I don't mean to be coming across as judging the quality of the league. (Though I admit it may have come across as such). My point is we seem to have gotten into this pattern of drafting first rounders because they played against men, in men's leagues. However, when you dive deep into the numbers, they did not exactly dominate, and then it showed up when they played against their peers. What is the mantra on here? Let them "dominate" somewhere. Ok. Where? In some cases we are drafting on very small sample sizes. With the whiff on Kotkaniemi, and the lost year of development for Slafkovsky, ... it should make you more cognizant that just playing in a men's league may not be enough. That's not to say we can't miss on CHL players (and we have missed) , and I'm not advocating just draft first rounders from the CHL ... but it is way easier to see the "domination" of someone in the CHL, or AHL. Anyway. I apologize again Let’s be fair. We have given Hughes a lot of rope. He has made some good decisions that we have embraced. He has earned great draft opportunities due to his terrible record. He went against conventional wisdom with moves that angered his fan base. We are no closer to a superstar. After Bergevin we rallied behind him. He has produced the worst performance in franchise history. We are slightly closer to slipping in the back door of a playoff spot if all the young players succeed and we avoid injuries and a goaltender steps up to greatness and several division teams falter and the roads in Montreal are repaired and the traffic cones are no longer needed. Not the second coming of Scotty Bowman. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 31, 2023 21:37:29 GMT -5
Thank you, that's my point. I don't mean to be coming across as judging the quality of the league. (Though I admit it may have come across as such). My point is we seem to have gotten into this pattern of drafting first rounders because they played against men, in men's leagues. However, when you dive deep into the numbers, they did not exactly dominate, and then it showed up when they played against their peers. What is the mantra on here? Let them "dominate" somewhere. Ok. Where? In some cases we are drafting on very small sample sizes. With the whiff on Kotkaniemi, and the lost year of development for Slafkovsky, ... it should make you more cognizant that just playing in a men's league may not be enough. That's not to say we can't miss on CHL players (and we have missed) , and I'm not advocating just draft first rounders from the CHL ... but it is way easier to see the "domination" of someone in the CHL, or AHL. Anyway. I apologize again Let’s be fair. We have given Hughes a lot of rope. He has made some good decisions that we have embraced. He has earned great draft opportunities due to his terrible record. He went against conventional wisdom with moves that angered his fan base. We are no closer to a superstar. After Bergevin we rallied behind him. He has produced the worst performance in franchise history. We are slightly closer to slipping in the back door of a playoff spot if all the young players succeed and we avoid injuries and a goaltender steps up to greatness and several division teams falter and the roads in Montreal are repaired and the traffic cones are no longer needed. Not the second coming of Scotty Bowman. There will never be another Scotty Bowman because there will never be another Sam Pollock... Scotty was a great coach, but he had amazing talent at his disposal and that was because of Pollock... if Hughes can be half the GM Pollock was, and take advantage of other GMs, we are in good hands |
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Post by Andrew on Sept 1, 2023 10:59:03 GMT -5
Fresh content from the Canadiens' official Youtube channel with a "behind the scenes 2023 draft video". Lots to talk about here. A few thoughts: This is obviously highly sanitized by the organization so it's hard to really know how decisions are made, but it appears to be somewhat consensus based with a cast of thousands in the room. Makes me wonder if there are too many cooks in the kitchen. And to what extent is the decision rightly or wrongly influenced by the most articulate and persuasive speakers (i.e. the point of view of an introverted analytics guy might not be well represented). I like Gorton and Hughes, but am not as sure about Lapointe and Bobrov. Time will tell if the right people and processes are in place, but until then they've proven nothing in the drafting department. Who is that guy at the combine asking non-hockey questions (about the ATM) and why is he allowed anywhere near the prospects. youtu.be/Bh3dmmo5S2k?si=Z_aaFgbpGHnaPlO8 |
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Post by seventeen on Sept 1, 2023 12:26:27 GMT -5
Really good points Andrew. As you are probably aware, it is the duty of the group leader(s), to elicit the opinions of everyone in the room. Because of the sanitization you pointed out, it's hard to tell if Hughes and Gorton got that. They are shown asking everyone for their opinion, but did they get it? At least we didn't see Hughes more interested in a bag of chips than in the draft process.
Hughes says that he and Gorton were leaning in a certain direction. I'd sure like to know which direction that was. I got the feeling at one point in the video that Gorton was leaning toward picking the elite guy, Michkov. Did anyone else get that sense. that he was willing to roll the dice?
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Post by Boston_Habs on Sept 1, 2023 12:52:02 GMT -5
My sense is the GM usually "owns" the first pick (with input of course but it's his call) and generally defers to the scouts and the internal rankings on the rest of the draft. But Hughes has no experience as a scout or talent evaluator, so he just has to trust the staff? Gorton spent 5 years with the Bruins and he apparently ran the 2006 draft that produced Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand and the trade of Andrew Raycroft to the Leafs for Tuuka Rask. I have to believe he had a strong voice in the process.
It's possible it was a solid consensus for Reinbacher but it could have been a weak consensus and there was a solid Michkov contingent as well. I have to believe they were at least tempted to go with the Russian and made the argument for him but people are by nature more risk-averse than gain-seeking and absent overwhelming support for Michkov they went with the perceived safe choice.
If Reinbacher delivers then we all feel better and his pick adds more young depth on D and potentially makes guys like Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, and maybe even Kaiden Guhle expendable in a trade to bring in more scoring, if necessary. You always want to trade from strength if you can.
The nagging concern I have is this quote from Hughes: "If he was a left-shot defenseman, we might have cooled on him, but we don't have as much depth on the right side." Ouch. It could just be an unintentional moment of truth from Hughes but the implication is they weren't so blown away by his talent that they would have drafted him regardless (which is what you'd want to hear). But maybe they wouldn't have drafted Michkov either...
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Post by Tankdriver on Sept 1, 2023 13:07:20 GMT -5
My sense is the GM usually "owns" the first pick (with input of course but it's his call) and generally defers to the scouts and the internal rankings on the rest of the draft. But Hughes has no experience as a scout or talent evaluator, so he just has to trust the staff? Gorton spent 5 years with the Bruins and he apparently ran the 2006 draft that produced Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand and the trade of Andrew Raycroft to the Leafs for Tuuka Rask. I have to believe he had a strong voice in the process. It's possible it was a solid consensus for Reinbacher but it could have been a weak consensus and there was a solid Michkov contingent as well. I have to believe they were at least tempted to go with the Russian and made the argument for him but people are by nature more risk-averse than gain-seeking and absent overwhelming support for Michkov they went with the perceived safe choice. If Reinbacher delivers then we all feel better and his pick adds more young depth on D and potentially makes guys like Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, and maybe even Kaiden Guhle expendable in a trade to bring in more scoring, if necessary. You always want to trade from strength if you can. The nagging concern I have is this quote from Hughes: "If he was a left-shot defenseman, we might have cooled on him, but we don't have as much depth on the right side." Ouch. It could just be an unintentional moment of truth from Hughes but the implication is they weren't so blown away by his talent that they would have drafted him regardless (which is what you'd want to hear). But maybe they wouldn't have drafted Michkov either... Also in the video, you see a lot of the same guy pushing for Reinbacher. You don't see much opinion from anyone else. This is where I wished they showed the whole debate and thought process. Even the goalie pick of Fowler showed more push back between scouts. Also some of the questions are so easy to pick apart. If someone cut in line what would you do...of course you know the correct answer but not everyone is going to do what they say. |
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Post by seventeen on Sept 1, 2023 13:41:58 GMT -5
So, my question is.....Is there more debate going on here at HabsRus about the video than there was about the Reinbacher selection?
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Post by PTH on Sept 1, 2023 17:20:39 GMT -5
So, my question is.....Is there more debate going on here at HabsRus about the video than there was about the Reinbacher selection? Come now.... this is a decision over a multi-million dollar asset. Of course they debated this internally, the whole point of hiring Gorton, then Hughes, was to build a cohesive organisation that would have a robust structure, rather than a 1-man show with Bergevin. Multi-million dollar decisions get debated. Over weeks and months... I think the issue for most fans is just that the top-5 seemed so set in the media that it seemed like a "Michkov or trade" situation. A bit like in 2018, when it seemed there was a clear top-3, and in reality we broke the mold at #3, but the projected #3 didn't go for a few more picks and hasn't panned out, yet (Zadina). |
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Post by PTH on Sept 1, 2023 17:23:37 GMT -5
Who is that guy at the combine asking non-hockey questions (about the ATM) and why is he allowed anywhere near the prospects. Do you mean the sports psychologist, who asked a low-key question that led to the interesting answer that Reinbacher is willing to stand up for himself, but even moreso if he feels a weaker person is being oppressed ? To me, this question was almost "how would you react if a teammate bullies another" only it got transmuted into something more generic so the kid answers honestly, since they can't have prepared every such question. |
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Post by Cranky on Sept 1, 2023 18:19:22 GMT -5
Any video we see will be 90% PR and 10% content. Reading between the lines and what you don't hear is more important.
For me the only issue is why not the AHL. Also another issue that may, or may not crop up is covid. Some politicians and prople are praying for it for obviois reasons. Don't want to see him lose a season like Mailman did.
Get the season started already!
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Post by Cranky on Sept 1, 2023 18:26:24 GMT -5
Who is that guy at the combine asking non-hockey questions (about the ATM) and why is he allowed anywhere near the prospects. Do you mean the sports psychologist, who asked a low-key question that led to the interesting answer that Reinbacher is willing to stand up for himself, but even moreso if he feels a weaker person is being oppressed ? To me, this question was almost "how would you react if a teammate bullies another" only it got transmuted into something more generic so the kid answers honestly, since they can't have prepared every such question. Silly interview questions happen even on a senior level. I was asked that if i see a serious violation by the company, what will i do. Answer...that's why you are hiring me as your General Manager so that never happens. If i can't handle HR questions, i might as well call myself BargainBinOpoulos. |
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Post by habsorbed on Sept 2, 2023 11:32:42 GMT -5
The video is a bit slanted in that they basically pump the tires of all the kids they selected. I appreciate they're not going to post what a scout said about how weak Reinbacher is, altho one guy clearly wasn't keen on Fowler given how intense the debate got. Altho maybe he was really keen on another player over Fowler. But it's nice to know they do have debates. I hope they keep a record of who promoted which player so they know a few years from now who said what and how those players turned out. I'm also happy to see how many of the scouts saw Reinbacher play and in different games. They sure make a good case for why he was picked. Given the debates we've had here, i'm going to defer to the pros who have actually seen him play. And he seems like a hard working skilled kid. Didn't know much about Fowler before watching this but from what I saw and heard of him in the video, i'm pretty excited. I guess that was the point of the video  |
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Post by seventeen on Sept 2, 2023 13:27:28 GMT -5
So, my question is.....Is there more debate going on here at HabsRus about the video than there was about the Reinbacher selection? Come now.... this is a decision over a multi-million dollar asset. Of course they debated this internally, the whole point of hiring Gorton, then Hughes, was to build a cohesive organisation that would have a robust structure, rather than a 1-man show with Bergevin. Multi-million dollar decisions get debated. Over weeks and months... I think the issue for most fans is just that the top-5 seemed so set in the media that it seemed like a "Michkov or trade" situation. A bit like in 2018, when it seemed there was a clear top-3, and in reality we broke the mold at #3, but the projected #3 didn't go for a few more picks and hasn't panned out, yet (Zadina). Sorry, PTH, I should have put a sarcasm emoji on my post. I was getting a chuckle out of the 9 pages we've stretched the Reinbacher thread out to. Of course, the actual Habs scouting department debate was longer. They probably had to order in lunch and dinner. Without seeing the unedited, whole 'fly on the wall' version, what stuck out to me was Gorton's definite leaning toward rolling the dice on Michkov. He had the right idea IMO. You may not get another chance at a rare, albeit flawed, talent like Michkov. I too have reservations, though. I'd want to get inside his head to see if the allegedly selfish traits are as much about competitiveness as selfishness. Some guys (eg Michael Jordan) just don't want anyone else taking the last shot because they think they can do it better. They're usually right if they are good enough. I also got the impression that everyone and their dog knew that the Habs were picking Reinbacher. That made the 'trade down' strategy useless. Philly was clearly a target. If you could convince them to trade up so they could pick Michkov, and they knew the Habs weren't picking him anyway and they probably had a good feeling Arizona wasn't interested in him, why bother? On the other hand (there's always a flip side), Philly are already having a problem with Fedotov, who has a valid contract with the Flyers and yet is still playing in Russia, because Putin. Unless he has a heart attack or a runaway security SUV runs over him, will he let a pending star like Michkov leave? The IIHF seems powerless and duh, of course they are. The KHL doesn't give a hoot about other countries or leagues. How much did that play into the draft? |
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Post by Skilly on Sept 2, 2023 18:35:20 GMT -5
The KHL season started today
Michkov was a healthy scratch
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Post by seventeen on Sept 3, 2023 1:10:35 GMT -5
I read a whack of posts about that on Twitter. As an outsider from 8,000 miles away (or whatever the distance is), I can see a coach benching a potential star player for one or more of several reasons:
1) he's simply not good enough (Doubtful. Every scout says he's pretty good)
2) Coach likes guys to be defensively responsible and Michkov did not show that. (Definitely a possibility. The coach did start Demidov on the 4th line and he's younger than Michkov, but better defensively)
3) Michkov just ticked off the coach for another reason. (Also a possibility)
It should also be pointed out that according to the roster graphic shown on Twitter from the SKA team, Galchenyuk was the first line centre. Make of that what you will.
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Post by Cranky on Sept 3, 2023 1:32:27 GMT -5
It's very Russian thing to show whose boss. Michkov probably has swellheadtites and the coach is going to shrink that.
Things are going just peachy....
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Post by Skilly on Sept 3, 2023 8:40:03 GMT -5
I read a whack of posts about that on Twitter. As an outsider from 8,000 miles away (or whatever the distance is), I can see a coach benching a potential star player for one or more of several reasons: 1) he's simply not good enough (Doubtful. Every scout says he's pretty good) 2) Coach likes guys to be defensively responsible and Michkov did not show that. (Definitely a possibility. The coach did start Demidov on the 4th line and he's younger than Michkov, but better defensively) 3) Michkov just ticked off the coach for another reason. (Also a possibility) It should also be pointed out that according to the roster graphic shown on Twitter from the SKA team, Galchenyuk was the first line centre. Make of that what you will. What I make of it is that NHL teams have absolutely no say in how European teams "develop" their players |
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Post by Dschens on Sept 3, 2023 8:49:28 GMT -5
Who is that guy at the combine asking non-hockey questions (about the ATM) and why is he allowed anywhere near the prospects. It's Dr. David Scott, a sports psycholgy consultant. The Habs staff worked with him at last years combine too. You can find an overlay with his name at the 3:09 mark of last years Draft video. |
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Post by Cranky on Sept 3, 2023 14:35:53 GMT -5
If Galchy is the 1st line center it tells me volumes about yhe level of pay in that league. Which on paper is one of the stronger leagues.
Galchy is a third liner in the NHL. Probably a second liner in the AHL.
And of course it fits my narrative about where players should be developed.
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Post by Tankdriver on Sept 14, 2023 11:15:04 GMT -5
More food for thought on this subject. Bobby Mac just came out with his top 16 prospect list and it isn't looking good for forwards.
Centers - 2
Wingers - 6
Defenceman - 8
However, I don't see the Habs drafting in the top 3 (Celebrini, Eiserman, Demidov) so, that means 8 defenceman and 5 forwards remaining.
I know there are sure to be risers and fallers but I really hope we don't draft another defenceman in the first round.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Sept 14, 2023 11:51:32 GMT -5
I'm not sure why there is emphasis about "mens" league. Shirley the fact that in the Swiss league there is such a low percentage of drafted player should be an indication of the level of competition. If playing against man was an important metric, any 15 year old could skate circles around our beer league. Yes I'm exaggerating but the point about "boys" in a man's league needs more then just age as a metric. These are not physically tough leagues were hitting and in-your-face hockey challenges 16-17 year olds against 25 year olds. X would have a field day as a 16 year old if he played in the Swiss league, just before they banned him. On the other hand, in the OHL he had 84 pims and total of 11 fights. Remember that he stepped into the NHL. Going back full circle to Rein, that's why I wanted him to go directly to the AHL. If he's already graduated, why send him back for more of what he already does. 5th pick David Reinbacher. It’s not about Reinbacher. Is he a good player. Yes. Is he a good skater. Yes. Is he smart. Yes. Is he Matvei Michkov. NO. We have a team full of good players and prospects but we have no outstanding producers. We don’t need another good defenseman. We need a potential great. Wright and Michkov could become great or busts. Reinbacher and Slavkovsky will never be great. Wait for our next opportunity to draft a superstar. I’m too old to wait that long. |
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Post by Skilly on Sept 23, 2023 20:13:07 GMT -5
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Post by Cranky on Sept 23, 2023 23:15:30 GMT -5
Why I have argued relentlessly for decades that players should go to the AHL as training grounds for the NHL.
You don't go into a league that you already successful, you go the next step up.
This isn't ivy league schools where Little Johnny can spend 5 years sharpening his beer drinking expertise, this is pros learning on the job at a higher and higher level...where an NHL career is the final graduation.
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Post by Skilly on Nov 3, 2023 19:23:01 GMT -5
So Reinbacher is back playing with Kloten , and the early reports are he is continuing with a high level of play
That got me thinking
8 teams have never had a rookie of the year
18 teams have had a rookie of the year since 2000
Of those remaining 6 teams, 3 teams had a rookie of the year in the 1990s
The three longest rookie of the year droughts
3. 1989 - New York Rangers (Brian Leetch)
2. 1987 - Los Angeles Kings (Luc Robitaille)
1. 1972 - Montreal Canadiens (Ken Dryden)
It’s been 51 years, since MTL had a rookie of the year! I was 2 months old in April 72 when Dryden likely won it
Since then
we had one player finish second (Ryder)
we had one player finish third (Dahlin)
we had one player finish fourth (Price)
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