Lafreniere

[habsorbed]

Well, now that the Dubois dream is gone, I see the media is now salivating over the next home-grown target. There's even talk of making an offer sheet and giving up a 1st and 3rd (i.e. under $6.4 million) for Lafreniere

I haven't seen him play that much but what i have seen reminds me a bit of Galchy (what a train (or car) wreck he turned out to be ). But if anyone is good at recognizing budding talent it's HuGo so maybe they have a go at Laffy.

Anyone interested?

[Tankdriver]

Noui (the french word for no-yes), not until we move some bodies out up front and not at 6.3 M

[mikeg]

No thanks. Joshua Roy will be fine, and potentially better.

[halihab]

Jul 18, 2023 7:36:28 GMT -5 mikeg said:

No thanks. Joshua Roy will be fine, and potentially better.

I agree. Don't need him.

[Boston_Habs]

Lafreniere and Roy are not good comparables. Maybe Lafreniere and Slafkovsky?

It's intriguing. The Rangers really don't have the cap space to accommodate him so they are vulnerable to the offer sheet. The Habs could put out a 1-year offer sheet at $5-6mn at the cost of a 2024 1st and 3rd round pick. If you believe Lafreniere is another of HuGo's pet projects (good prospect, wrong situation) then maybe you put out the offer and Lafreniere replaces PLD as the returning francophone star. OTOH, it could be a bust and cost us a 1st round pick next year.

My gut tells me Lafreniere has not lacked for opportunities. He's played 3 years in the NHL with not much progress. He'd certainly need to do more than 16/23/39 to be worth the investment.

[seventeen]

Hmmmm. Tough case. If your look at him as glass half empty you see a .42 ppg guy, not great for someone who should be top 6. He's also a year older draftee with a birthdate of Oct 4th, just as the season starts and having an extra year over many other prospects. He's been in the league 3 years and hasn't shown much despite being protected with 59.3% offensive zone starts.

The glass half full people will say he's gone from .375 to .39 to .48 ppg over those 3 years, with no real PP time and with two vets (Kreider and Panarin) ahead of him at LW and with a coach who does not tolerate kids well and who was in a pressure cooker to win. He was also +10 last year and has improved that number each year in the NHL.

I think you'd have to go back and look at each game he played to see if he was driving play or showing flashes of real skill. His skating would have to be at least average and hopefully better. You'd want to see commitment and a willingness to go to the net. If we still had our own 2nd rounder I'd try $4.2MM, but since we don't and I'm not keen on giving up a first, I'll pass. You might be able to work out a trade, though. The Rags are in win now mode and Laviolette wasn't brought in to develop anyone. Some prospects who won't affect their CAP?

[Cranky]

NO

ABSOLUTELY NOT

Laffy isn't Dubois and he certainly is not worth a top 10 first.

At this point, Laffy is worth at best a 20th and later pick.

Media must miss their headline catching Drouin v2. babble.

Move along, nothing to see here....

[folatre]

Lafreniere is a skilled guy with decent size and a little jam. He should have a solid career as a top six winger. But I think he clearly benefited from being a step ahead physically at every stage of his development prior to coming to the NHL.

Sure, if he was getting cookies on the power play then his point totals would look a bit more impressive. However, I do not think he is big time difference maker and I certainly would not want to give up a potential top 10 pick for him. And moreover, the offer sheet gambit may also be too expensive from a cap perspective if one ponders paying $6.3 million for a guy who may never put up significantly better numbers than Gallagher.

I would pass.

[PTH]

Jul 18, 2023 15:51:54 GMT -5 folatre said:

Lafreniere is a skilled guy with decent size and a little jam. He should have a solid career as a top six winger. But I think he clearly benefited from being a step ahead physically at every stage of his development prior to coming to the NHL.

Sure, if he was getting cookies on the power play then his point totals would look a bit more impressive. However, I do not think he is big time difference maker and I certainly would not want to give up a potential top 10 pick for him. And moreover, the offer sheet gambit may also be too expensive from a cap perspective if one ponders paying $6.3 million for a guy who may never put up significantly better numbers than Gallagher.

I would pass.

This, for sure.

6.3M is steep (and you never know if you can extend him cheaper), a potential top-10 pick would be wildly irresponsible to gamble on him. (imagine spending the season on tankathon seeing the odds of our losing a top-2 pick, like I was doing with Florida's pick, all season long).

Also, with Caufield and Slafkovsky, and likely Newhook, on LW, do we have room for another top-9 LW ? The idea is to give him quality ice time to develop, in a way he couldn't in NY, but if that just means we slow down Slaf, we aren't ahead...

[Cranky]

Rags are against the cap and can't go past 3 million without dropping someone.

OS 4.2 and see what happens. Rags will match but also listen to a decent offer.

Harris and a late 2nd for Laf?

Meh...i know we don't have our second so I'm speculating.

[Tankdriver]

Jul 18, 2023 19:18:25 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Rags are against the cap and can't go past 3 million without dropping someone.

OS 4.2 and see what happens. Rags will match but also listen to a decent offer.

Harris and a late 2nd for Laf?

Meh...i know we don't have our second so I'm speculating.

We don't need to trade a second from this year. Only if we through out an offer sheet.

[habsorbed]

Jul 18, 2023 19:18:25 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Rags are against the cap and can't go past 3 million without dropping someone.

OS 4.2 and see what happens. Rags will match but also listen to a decent offer.

Harris and a late 2nd for Laf?

Meh...i know we don't have our second so I'm speculating.

It seems the consensus is to stay away. What concerns me the most is how many of us worry that giving up our first round pick next year may be too much to give because we will have high draft pick - not too much confidence in the current roster

Your idea of a low ball offer sheet of $4 million is not a bad idea. Altho I wonder why other teams haven't done it. Is it because they don't think Laffy is worth it, or is an offer sheet still considered dirty pool?

I note that Laffy's number after 3 years are a bit better than Dachs and we gave up Romy, a 2nd rounder who was clearly a top 4 to get Dach. So the real question is do HuGo believe Laffy is ready to break out.

[Cranky]

Jul 18, 2023 23:15:50 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Jul 18, 2023 19:18:25 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Rags are against the cap and can't go past 3 million without dropping someone.

OS 4.2 and see what happens. Rags will match but also listen to a decent offer.

Harris and a late 2nd for Laf?

Meh...i know we don't have our second so I'm speculating.

We don't need to trade a second from this year. Only if we through out an offer sheet.

We can't lowball offer sheet because we don't have our second.

However we can offer a second and Harris in a trade.

Ideally the threat is...we are going to OS but we're nice so here is Harris and that second. Oops, we mean our 2025 2nd.

Is Laffy worth it? I don't know and it's only workable if Newhook goes center.

But...the ouzo laced copium in me says we have three top prospects that may turn out into 50-70 pointers. THAT is real depth.

[Cranky]

Jul 19, 2023 1:55:08 GMT -5 habsorbed said:

Your idea of a low ball offer sheet of $4 million is not a bad idea. Altho I wonder why other teams haven't done it. Is it because they don't think Laffy is worth it, or is an offer sheet still considered dirty pool?

First problem is contending teams want results for their 1st rounder. They usually give it away for that perceived piece that puts them over the top. Laffy isn't that piece.

I suppose a smart GM with a long term view may consider it, but at this point, Laffy is not an impact player. Even as a 50-60 pointer, he may be a warm body in a tough playoff series.

This where I thought that Dubois could make an impact...or not.

To be clear, Laffy is no Dubois, but Dubois is not a guarantee playoff warrior either. I think Dach has a bigger chip on his shoulder in a playoff series.

BTW...what is a playoff series? It feels like ages ago...

[Boston_Habs]

I expect us to be picking in the #10-15 range next year (closer to #15). That's somewhere between 80 and 90 points. The tank part is over. I expect us to be better and healthier next year and pushing for a playoff spot.

The young D needs to be better, Dach needs to be healthy, Suzuki needs to be 75-80 point guy, Caufield needs to score 35-40 goals, and my hope is our goaltending will be around league average in terms of save pct. The grace period for HuGo and Marty is over. It's time to show real progress.

Is Lafreniere worth a #10-15 pick and a 3rd rounder? I'm not sold on the player but I wouldn't call anyone crazy who thinks there's more upside for Lafreniere and that's fair value.

[seventeen]

I'd think you have to go at this a different way. A first and 3rd rounder doesn't help Drury or Laviolette next season. They'd be looking for someone who can help them now along with some CAP relief if needed. One possibility (with some big ifs) is Sean Monahan. Let's say Monahan stays healthy and is putting up the same numbers he did for us this past season (on a ppg basis). It's the trade deadline. Lafreniere looks like he's improving but he's still behind Kreider and Panarin and the Rangers braintrust still has their doubts. A straight up Monahan for Laf trade, or maybe we add Kidney or soemone else from Laval who is doing well, but might not be able to break our lineup in two years.

That works for NY and it works for us, if the above "ifs" hold true. Offsetting that is the possibility another team offers us something attractive at the deadline for Sean, say a pick that might end up around 10-12. The problem with this scenario is that if Lafreniere is playing better and is someone we'd love to have, well the Rags would probably want him too and would hold onto him.

In any case, a trade works better for both teams than an offer sheet. The Rangers don't need a guy who'll be ready in 5 years. Of if Dvorak is putting up points, why not him? If the Rangers signed Alex Belzile, you know they need help at centre. But you have to really believe that Lafreniere will eventually be a top 6 player. We are pretty good at LW, but if you slot Slaf on the right (where he seems comfortable anyway), you have Slaf, Anderson, Gally, Roy, or Dach if we keep Monahan at centre, all on the RW. On the left you'd have Caufield, Newhook, Lafreniere, Ylonen, RHP and Pezzetta.  (I'm deliberately ignoring some of the guys who aren't in our future plans).

In 3 years time, this team, even without Lafreniere, is going to be pretty tough. Only one 1 or 2 elite guys, but the dropoff after that isn't much. Every line we have is going to be dangerous and that depth will make it's mark, at least until the CAP starts to squeeze us.

[Polarice]

Jul 19, 2023 10:19:10 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

I expect us to be picking in the #10-15 range next year (closer to #15). That's somewhere between 80 and 90 points. The tank part is over. I expect us to be better and healthier next year and pushing for a playoff spot.

The young D needs to be better, Dach needs to be healthy, Suzuki needs to be 75-80 point guy, Caufield needs to score 35-40 goals, and my hope is our goaltending will be around league average in terms of save pct. The grace period for HuGo and Marty is over. It's time to show real progress.

Is Lafreniere worth a #10-15 pick and a 3rd rounder? I'm not sold on the player but I wouldn't call anyone crazy who thinks there's more upside for Lafreniere and that's fair value.

I think we are a bubble team....depending if we can stay healthy of course. But I have us finishing anywhere around 7-12 in the East. I believe there will be only a few points in the difference of 12 to 7th place.

[Cranky]

The interesting thing about Laffy is he's on the border of being declared a first round bust.

Right now fair value is at best a 15 OA pick. Another 30-40 point season and he falls to second round territory. Anyone trading for him with serious assets has to be careful that they are not acquiring a rapidly diminishing asset.

All this has to be familiar to Hughes since there are connections to the Rags AND he likes his underachievers. So either the Rags are asking the moon, which is likely OR Hughes doesn't think there is high potential in Laffy.

What would be very Pollock'ian would be engineering an OS from another team what pushes the Rags to make a decision. Right now they are waiting him out and think they can sign him for 2.5 million, which is what they have left over in cap space. Offer 4.3 and it makes their life a bit more miserable. The simple fact that he's not signed yet is suspect. Laffy wants more then the Rags want to pay. So would he sign a 4.3? Why wouldn't he over a 2.5.

My problem is we have a LOT of development to do with a LOT of players. We are going to lose mid level talent simply because of numbers. Adding another young player that max's into mid level doesn't really help us. What we really need is to do 2-3 for 1 trades, which I thought was possible with "the other guy who needs not be mentioned anymore".

Anywho...since there is not much to talk about yet, he's a distraction.

[Skilly]

Jul 19, 2023 10:19:10 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

I expect us to be picking in the #10-15 range next year (closer to #15). That's somewhere between 80 and 90 points. The tank part is over. I expect us to be better and healthier next year and pushing for a playoff spot.

The young D needs to be better, Dach needs to be healthy, Suzuki needs to be 75-80 point guy, Caufield needs to score 35-40 goals, and my hope is our goaltending will be around league average in terms of save pct. The grace period for HuGo and Marty is over. It's time to show real progress.

Is Lafreniere worth a #10-15 pick and a 3rd rounder? I'm not sold on the player but I wouldn't call anyone crazy who thinks there's more upside for Lafreniere and that's fair value.

Sadly, the tank part is not over

You tank to get an elite difference maker. Where is he on this team?

[habsorbed]

Jul 20, 2023 7:17:27 GMT -5 Skilly said:

Jul 19, 2023 10:19:10 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

I expect us to be picking in the #10-15 range next year (closer to #15). That's somewhere between 80 and 90 points. The tank part is over. I expect us to be better and healthier next year and pushing for a playoff spot.

The young D needs to be better, Dach needs to be healthy, Suzuki needs to be 75-80 point guy, Caufield needs to score 35-40 goals, and my hope is our goaltending will be around league average in terms of save pct. The grace period for HuGo and Marty is over. It's time to show real progress.

Is Lafreniere worth a #10-15 pick and a 3rd rounder? I'm not sold on the player but I wouldn't call anyone crazy who thinks there's more upside for Lafreniere and that's fair value.

Sadly, the tank part is not over

You tank to get an elite difference maker. Where is he on this team?

Perhaps even more sad is that the tank is over as we likely have a decent enough roster to be out of the bottom 10, and we will be in mediocreville for another 10 years In otherwords all the suffering we've endured will have all been for not as a result of our poor draft picks. The 2022 draft may have been the weakest in a generation - just our luck

[Tankdriver]

I still think the gem of the 2022 draft is Cooley.

But last 2 drafts of Slafkovsky and Reinbacher doesn't scream a #1 and #5 for sure.

Time will tell. Hopefully Hutson turns into a Makar. One more year of pain to go.

[Boston_Habs]

No excuses, though. Boston has contended for the past 10-15 years and they haven't had a top 5 pick since Tyler Seguin in 2010. There are different ways to build a contender: the draft, development, trades, UFA. I would have loved to have more than Slafkovsky and Reinbacher to show for two bottom 5 finishes, but I honestly don't see us picking much inside the top 10 if we stay healthy next year. It is what it is.

That said, I think HuGo has enough to work with on the NHL roster and coming up in prospects. In fact, one of the things I like about the Reinbacher pick is it creates some surplus on D from which to make a trade to help shore up another area. We also have a lot of mid-sized contracts (Anderson, Hoffman, Dvorak, Savard) that could be packaged in a trade.

This is a huge year, where certain guys will emerge to show their true value. I put Nick Suzuki at the top of that list. 75-80 points, Nick. Kirby Dach shows tantalizing skills but he needs to consolidate them and stay healthy. I feel Caufield is just a born sniper and will find a way to score at least 30. Also on D - Guhle, Harris, Barron. I have a feeling one of those guys will play at a consistently high level and at least one will struggle or reveal themselves as a bottom pair guy.

Anyway, I have high expectations for 2023-24.

[seventeen]

I have medium expectations for 23/24. The defense, while full of promise is still young. If my (MY in capital letters) expectations are met, Guhle will become a top pair guy, much like McAvoy, who was 24 before he put up more than 32 points. Harris will be a Mattias Ekholm, not a big scorer but someone you often put up against the other team's best lines. Hutson will be a Quinn Hughes, but will be lucky enough to have a better partner than Hughes has ever had. I can't think of a comparison for Reinbacher, but he'll be a 40-50 point guy who also gets put against the other team's better lines. That's a lot of scoring so far...maybe too much. WiFi will be a stalwart on the 3rd pair and able to move up for stretches on the 2nd pair. Engstrom will have to suffer on the 3rd pair, despite being good enough to be a top 4 guy (There still isn't nearly enough appreciation for this kid, who has played quite well in a very good professional league). Struble may have a role. For those who are screaming "how about Mailloux and Barron!!, I can only say that HuGo drafted Reinbacher and not Leonard or someone else for a reason. I don;t think they have a high enough opinion of either of those guys. I don't. In both cases it's because I get the sense they don't process the defensive zone reads quickly enough and are late to the party. We have seen Barron. We have seen him arriving to check a guy in front just as the puck goes into the net. It's a sign and it's the hardest thing to correct. Often, you either have it or you don't.

On the offensive side, same thing.. the kids are still just too young, but we'll see quicker development here. As Boston suggests needs to happen and I think will, Suzuki will put up 80 points this year. Caufield will get 40+ and possibly 50 if he doesn't miss time on the IL. Newhook will surprise, Slaf will be much better, the defense, with Matheson and better, healthier years from the kids, will transition faster and better and the forwards will get more and better looks.

To address Boston's point about, ahem, Boston contending for the past longer than 10 years, the consistent factor has been Bergeron. He may not have been considered elite, but he was a consensus choice on any Olympic or World Cup team from 2010 on. I consider him elite but he was very quietly so. Not flashy in the least, but extremely effective. If he's not back this year, the Bruins competitive window is closed. Every team that is competitive for a long time has to have a player to build around. The Devils had Scott Niedermayer for years, but once he left, despite still having Brodeur and a number of other good players, they began to slide. Lo and behold, the Mighty Ducks win a Cup and who is on their team? No surprise, huh?

So if you believe my hypothesis above, who will that player be for the Habs? Is he already on the roster or is he someone we have to still acquire? There is no way to know ahead of time. Usually, it's a defenseman or a centre. Guhle? Suzuki?

[PTH]

Jul 20, 2023 11:28:26 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I still think the gem of the 2022 draft is Cooley.

But last 2 drafts of Slafkovsky and Reinbacher doesn't scream a #1 and #5 for sure.

Time will tell. Hopefully Hutson turns into a Makar. One more year of pain to go.

Rumor is Nashville, who have a nice development history of producing D, wanted to move up to draft Reinbacher.... I wouldn't write him off too soon as a cornerstone.

[Boston_Habs]

Jul 20, 2023 13:42:06 GMT -5 seventeen said:

So if you believe my hypothesis above, who will that player be for the Habs? Is he already on the roster or is he someone we have to still acquire? There is no way to know ahead of time. Usually, it's a defenseman or a centre. Guhle? Suzuki?

Well, the organization is hoping it's Suzuki. He's in the mold of a Saku Koivu or Tomas Plekanec, closer to Koivu in his offensive profile. A good-but-not-great center, can play a 200-foot game, doesn't take nights off, quiet leadership, good citizen, doesn't party too much. My hope is we aren't saying the same thing about Suzuki that we used to say about Koivu and Plekanec. You feel great if he's your #2 C but not if he's your #1. However, the game has opened up a lot more since those days and if you told me Nick would be a solid 80-point guy for the next 5 years I'd probably take that.

And my "high" expectations are 80-90 points but realistically 80-85 and not a playoff team. About where Detroit and Ottawa were last year. We have to start passing some of the teams in our division...

[Cranky]

Jul 20, 2023 13:42:41 GMT -5 PTH said:

Jul 20, 2023 11:28:26 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I still think the gem of the 2022 draft is Cooley.

But last 2 drafts of Slafkovsky and Reinbacher doesn't scream a #1 and #5 for sure.

Time will tell. Hopefully Hutson turns into a Makar. One more year of pain to go.

Rumor is Nashville, who have a nice development history of producing D, wanted to move up to draft Reinbacher.... I wouldn't write him off too soon as a cornerstone.

Sure, move up from 15 to 10 to draft Rein, but at 5OA?

There was two clear choices we didn't make ahead of him, Leonard and Michkov. Time will tell if it was an ok decision or a stupid one.

[Willie Dog]

Jul 20, 2023 13:42:41 GMT -5 PTH said:

Jul 20, 2023 11:28:26 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I still think the gem of the 2022 draft is Cooley.

But last 2 drafts of Slafkovsky and Reinbacher doesn't scream a #1 and #5 for sure.

Time will tell. Hopefully Hutson turns into a Makar. One more year of pain to go.

Rumor is Nashville, who have a nice development history of producing D, wanted to move up to draft Reinbacher.... I wouldn't write him off too soon as a cornerstone.

Lots of teams wanted Orville...

www.tvasports.ca/2023/07/18/les-equipes-sarrachaient-reinbacher-au-repechage

[Willie Dog]

Jul 20, 2023 14:13:42 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

Jul 20, 2023 13:42:06 GMT -5 seventeen said:

So if you believe my hypothesis above, who will that player be for the Habs? Is he already on the roster or is he someone we have to still acquire? There is no way to know ahead of time. Usually, it's a defenseman or a centre. Guhle? Suzuki?

Well, the organization is hoping it's Suzuki. He's in the mold of a Saku Koivu or Tomas Plekanec, closer to Koivu in his offensive profile. A good-but-not-great center, can play a 200-foot game, doesn't take nights off, quiet leadership, good citizen, doesn't party too much. My hope is we aren't saying the same thing about Suzuki that we used to say about Koivu and Plekanec. You feel great if he's your #2 C but not if he's your #1. However, the game has opened up a lot more since those days and if you told me Nick would be a solid 80-point guy for the next 5 years I'd probably take that.

And my "high" expectations are 80-90 points but realistically 80-85 and not a playoff team. About where Detroit and Ottawa were last year. We have to start passing some of the teams in our division...

Shouldn't discount Dach as being potential stud... size, strength, speed, vision, shot... him with Slaf or newhook and we could see something magical.

[Tankdriver]

Jul 20, 2023 14:13:42 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

Jul 20, 2023 13:42:06 GMT -5 seventeen said:

So if you believe my hypothesis above, who will that player be for the Habs? Is he already on the roster or is he someone we have to still acquire? There is no way to know ahead of time. Usually, it's a defenseman or a centre. Guhle? Suzuki?

Well, the organization is hoping it's Suzuki. He's in the mold of a Saku Koivu or Tomas Plekanec, closer to Koivu in his offensive profile. A good-but-not-great center, can play a 200-foot game, doesn't take nights off, quiet leadership, good citizen, doesn't party too much. My hope is we aren't saying the same thing about Suzuki that we used to say about Koivu and Plekanec. You feel great if he's your #2 C but not if he's your #1. However, the game has opened up a lot more since those days and if you told me Nick would be a solid 80-point guy for the next 5 years I'd probably take that.

And my "high" expectations are 80-90 points but realistically 80-85 and not a playoff team. About where Detroit and Ottawa were last year. We have to start passing some of the teams in our division...

That's the problem in a nutshell. Detroit is better, Ottawa is better, Buffalo is getting better. We need big drop odd from Boston, Tampa and Florida and hope that Matthews and Nylander leave in Free Agency so the Leafs can suck again.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Jul 18, 2023 11:29:39 GMT -5 Boston_Habs said:

Lafreniere and Roy are not good comparables. Maybe Lafreniere and Slafkovsky?

It's intriguing. The Rangers really don't have the cap space to accommodate him so they are vulnerable to the offer sheet. The Habs could put out a 1-year offer sheet at $5-6mn at the cost of a 2024 1st and 3rd round pick. If you believe Lafreniere is another of HuGo's pet projects (good prospect, wrong situation) then maybe you put out the offer and Lafreniere replaces PLD as the returning francophone star. OTOH, it could be a bust and cost us a 1st round pick next year.

My gut tells me Lafreniere has not lacked for opportunities. He's played 3 years in the NHL with not much progress. He'd certainly need to do more than 16/23/39 to be worth the investment.

I don’t mind the Habs trading their first round pick. They blow it on obscure players they could get two rounds later.