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Post by Skilly on Jul 22, 2023 8:26:14 GMT -5
I sure hope I jinx it ... but we are in trouble if management is banking on Suzuki being elite and a consistent 90 point player. Real trouble
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Post by seventeen on Jul 22, 2023 14:12:25 GMT -5
I sure hope I jinx it ... but we are in trouble if management is banking on Suzuki being elite and a consistent 90 point player. Real trouble Oh ye of little faith.  |
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Lafreniere
Jul 22, 2023 20:34:03 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Jul 22, 2023 20:34:03 GMT -5
I sure hope I jinx it ... but we are in trouble if management is banking on Suzuki being elite and a consistent 90 point player. Real trouble Oh ye of little faith. I’m old enough to remember posts about us having a potential bonafide 40 goal scorer. #peoplegotwiggyforhiggy |
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Lafreniere
Jul 22, 2023 22:12:54 GMT -5
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 22, 2023 22:12:54 GMT -5
I’d say 75-80 points is a realistic number for Suzuki next year. I’m not sure we have that next level 100 point guy but I’m not sure we need that. Edmonton has two of those guys and it hasn’t been enough. I’m fine with Suzuki being a PPG game guy as long as we have enough other pieces.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 22, 2023 23:24:48 GMT -5
You might be able to get away without an 'elite' player if the rest of your team is full of A+ type of guys. It would be an interesting experiment. Edmonton has been handicapped by goaltending the entire time that McDavid and Draisaitl have been around. They've never had even average goaltending to go with their scoring.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 23, 2023 9:09:12 GMT -5
I can see Suze hitting 90 points, from what I have read Cole has Bern on a mission this off season getting into shape, if he stats healthy we could have a 40 goal winger and a 90 point centre... I wonder how Slaf would do with CC and Suze... I also expect a newhook-dach-monahan line to be a really good 2nd line
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Post by CentreHice on Jul 23, 2023 9:51:48 GMT -5
I’d say 75-80 points is a realistic number for Suzuki next year. I’m not sure we have that next level 100 point guy but I’m not sure we need that. Edmonton has two of those guys and it hasn’t been enough. I’m fine with Suzuki being a PPG game guy as long as we have enough other pieces. That's the Vegas model. Strong pieces surrounding key snipers. Go go go. Scoring by committee. A couple of stalwarts on D. And it never hurts to have a goalie in Smythe contention. Hill stepped in and had a consistently strong playoffs, while Vassy experienced the 2021 Price Final Fade. |
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 23, 2023 11:44:26 GMT -5
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 23, 2023 11:45:41 GMT -5
I sure hope I jinx it ... but we are in trouble if management is banking on Suzuki being elite and a consistent 90 point player. Real trouble Oh ye of little faith. I got faith Suze will get 90 points in the next couple of years and certainly in his prime before his contract ends. What will be critical is getting him another top winger to go with Cole - Dach? And better yet would be a top 2nd line centre - Dach? And therein lies the problem - lack of depth. Either we have those in the system or HuGo has to go get them. I think Dach can become the very good 2nd line centre so it's really the winger we need which should be easier to find. Right now the only realistic hopes for stud wingers in the system are Slafs if he can live up to his first overall status and Newhook who needs to bust out. Or Gally would have to turn back the clock, Monahan would have to become the bionic man, or Anderson becomes Todd Bertuzzi - don't like our chances on any of those. Dubois migh have been the answer but...  Having said all that, I see Suze as a Patrice Bergeron talent and Patrice never got 80 points in his Hall of Fame career. |
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Post by Cranky on Jul 23, 2023 14:18:19 GMT -5
It looks like people broke into my happy pills and moonshine copium stock...  Teams don't take us seriously so we are going to fool a lot of people early in the season, then reality will set in when they start playing for keeps. Unless Dach takes a giant step forward and relieves Suzy from heavy front line duties, he's going to have a hard time hitting 90 points between the beatings. This is where the "do not mention his name" guy was suppose to come in and take away lots of pressure. Spread between 3 onish-twoish centers, then Suzy would be free to roam the outer limits of his points potential. There was a strategy behind my dream of getting "do not mention his name" guy. Now we are going to hope that Dach and Newhook step into that roll. Good luck with that... |
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Lafreniere
Jul 23, 2023 14:40:57 GMT -5
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 23, 2023 14:40:57 GMT -5
It looks like people broke into my happy pills and moonshine copium stock... Teams don't take us seriously so we are going to fool a lot of people early in the season, then reality will set in when they start playing for keeps. Unless Dach takes a giant step forward and relieves Suzy from heavy front line duties, he's going to have a hard time hitting 90 points between the beatings. This is where the "do not mention his name" guy was suppose to come in and take away lots of pressure. Spread between 3 onish-twoish centers, then Suzy would be free to roam the outer limits of his points potential. There was a strategy behind my dream of getting "do not mention his name" guy. Now we are going to hope that Dach and Newhook step into that roll. Good luck with that... He did not want to be a Hab... if he wanted to, he would be, he who shall not be named decided to play for the team that "made his dream come true"... I'm sure as a little boy growing up in ste-agathe-des-monts he dreamed of playing for the Kings... assclown... no character, no honour, no desire to be a Hab... He can enjoy being M. Invisible out on the West coast... |
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Post by seventeen on Jul 23, 2023 17:22:55 GMT -5
It looks like people broke into my happy pills and moonshine copium stock... Teams don't take us seriously so we are going to fool a lot of people early in the season, then reality will set in when they start playing for keeps. Unless Dach takes a giant step forward and relieves Suzy from heavy front line duties, he's going to have a hard time hitting 90 points between the beatings. This is where the "do not mention his name" guy was suppose to come in and take away lots of pressure. Spread between 3 onish-twoish centers, then Suzy would be free to roam the outer limits of his points potential. There was a strategy behind my dream of getting "do not mention his name" guy. Now we are going to hope that Dach and Newhook step into that roll. Good luck with that... He did not want to be a Hab... if he wanted to, he would be, he who shall not be named decided to play for the team that "made his dream come true"... I'm sure as a little boy growing up in ste-agathe-des-monts he dreamed of playing for the Kings... assclown... no character, no honour, no desire to be a Hab... He can enjoy being M. Invisible out on the West coast... It's amazing how dreams can take a back seat to $$. One think I know for sure. Mercenaries won't beat people fighting for their lives or a cause. When it comes to real sacrifice (like one needs to win the Cup), mercenaries won't go through with it. It's just a job, right? |
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Post by folatre on Jul 24, 2023 18:00:24 GMT -5
My son and I were disappointed about Dubois, but we are over it. What can you do...I can't blame a player for taking 8 years/$68 million guaranteed rather than taking a risk (ACLs happen, concussions happen, etc.) on playing 2023-24 on a one-year arb contract. Likewise, I don't blame Hughes for not pulling the trigger. I think the equivalent of the Kings offer would have essentially been Dach (Vilardi), Ylonen (Kupari), the Panthers 2023 1st (Habs 2024 2nd), and Armia (Iafallo). I would have done it. But I perceive that Hughes sees Dach's upside equal to Dubois' and he also really believes in Newhook. Time will say.
Well, regarding the Habs first rounder next summer, I totally get it that it feels like such an unhappy grind to anticipate being a bad team yet again. I hope that is not the case, but there is a near consensus (albeit early) among hockey observers that the Habs are going to finish 8th in the rugged Atlantic. And it is an irrefutable fact that, best case scenario, a team in the NHL cannot make the playoffs unless they finish above at least three teams in their own division. Given the young d-corps and the fact that Allen was poor last season while Montembealt is still relatively unproven, I would judge that Hughes trading a first rounder (or handing it over via the offer sheet gambit) for Lafreniere would be akin to the unforced errors Pierre Dorion started making in the summer of 2022.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 24, 2023 20:37:49 GMT -5
Well put, folatre. So much depends on good judgment in projecting and really.....who knows for sure? I like Villardi, but he may have played a fair amount on wing with Kopitar last year, so his points might have been inflated as a result. He's still a good player, but I think Dach has a higher ceiling. He reminds me so much of Ryan Getzlaf. Another year of beefing up and his already good puck protection skills could be in the Getzlaf scale. Dach already passes very well and has a good shot. He's got a high ceiling and I hope he reaches it.
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Post by Cranky on Jul 24, 2023 21:41:19 GMT -5
I think the equivalent of the Kings offer would have essentially been Dach (Vilardi), Ylonen (Kupari), the Panthers 2023 1st (Habs 2024 2nd), and Armia (Iafallo). I would have done it. But I perceive that Hughes sees Dach's upside equal to Dubois' and he also really believes in Newhook. Time will say. Dach for Dubois is far too much. Basically three nickels for a dime. LA paid too much because they are fixated on an important center and they think they traded for an aging Kopitar. Dubois is not a leader like Kopitar. He may cripple that team if he behaves like he has the last 3 years. I doubt anyone else was anywhere near their offer, including ours. Of course I was disappointed but I never saw Dubois as a leader. Basically, multiplicity of abilities that he and Dach along with Suzy would form our offensive spear. Now we hope Dach rapidly develops and Newhook follows. I don't think Newhook will, but let's hope. |
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Post by Skilly on Jul 25, 2023 15:10:32 GMT -5
We've already proven that we can't make a selection with a 3rd overall and a 5th overall .... why do we insist on putting so much value on our first rounders? It baffles me. Show me one elite first rounder that we selected that would have an unforced error if we didn't? ... I may give you Cole Caufield. But when we pass on studs for projects way more than select elite stars, I put no stock in first rounders if they can fetch us proven talent. But that's the key, it has to be talent, and not wishful dreams on any local player.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 25, 2023 18:11:43 GMT -5
Strangely enough we did pretty well with the 15th OA pick and 16th OA pick (Caufield and Guhle). There were some obvious reasons why the higher picks were problematic (perhaps). The 2012 draft was weak as hell. When Morgan Reilly is the best pick of the top 5, you know it was a weak year. In 2018, the same thing. If we'd had the first or second pick, we'd be laughing from here to Tuktoyuktuk because Dahlin and Svechnikov were the top 2 consensus choices. After that, the fact Bergevin couldn't get a centre via trade, moved him to draft one and KK was picked above where he should have gone though he'd never have gotten past 5 because Arizona was also looking for a centre and drafted a guy who should have gone later as well. I thought it was a gamble and one I would have taken as well. No criticism from me on that pick because we needed a centre badly. The development sucked, of course.
Then, I assume you mean Reinbacher, at 5. It's way to early to judge if that was a mistake or not. No one stands out at that pick. ONce again, if we'd had any pick above that, it's a slam dunk. We seem to be really unlucky that way at the high spots in a given year, but do pretty well, if it's later and others have missed the boat on some guys. Reinbacher could be really good. Michkov has red flags all over him. Benson is another small guy, if talented. Leonard is good, but still a bit small (6') for a power forward. It's as if there are 6 players you could take at that spot and you might as well roll a six sided die to pick them. Who the hell knows who will turn out best? In 5 years time we might be slapping Hughes on the back and congratulating him for not taking any of the other 5 guys he might have picked.
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Post by folatre on Jul 25, 2023 20:27:48 GMT -5
Cranky, I am not so sure that Dach has more upside than Dubois. But I think the root of this decision to not "match" the Kings offer has more to do with the whole timeline to contention thing in Montreal. Flexibility is gold. And keeping a lid on the number of core pieces making serious coin is the key to maintaining flexibility.
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Post by folatre on Jul 25, 2023 20:33:39 GMT -5
Back to Lafreniere, the issue of how the Rangers value him is also fascinating. I would imagine they are loathe to give up on a first overall pick who has proven he can be a solid NHLer. Of course, they are hoping he emerges soon and fearing that if they trade him the breakout happens in his new home. I do not think Drury would look at the kid's productivity and see him as an asset he is okay flipping for a meh first rounder and some other asset that doesn’t move the needle. At this point, unless someone forces his hand with the $6.3 million offer sheet, New York is going to hold the line and force Lafreniere to bet on himself and accept something like a two year/$2.75 AAV. Without an offer sheet he has no leverage. What would the return in a trade have to look like for New York, given the fact they can sign him on the cheap?
Hockey is debatable but I believe it would have to be significant (i.e. two nice assets) because why should they potentially sell relatively low? The cap crunch is not really a major thing for the Rangers. They can give the kid as much as $3.5 per and just roll with a 21 man roster. If there is a club out there that wants to get serious about acquiring Lafreniere, then it will have to make sense to the Rangers’ management. A couple of meh pieces will not get done.
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Lafreniere
Jul 26, 2023 11:14:48 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Jul 26, 2023 11:14:48 GMT -5
Strangely enough we did pretty well with the 15th OA pick and 16th OA pick (Caufield and Guhle). There were some obvious reasons why the higher picks were problematic (perhaps). The 2012 draft was weak as hell. When Morgan Reilly is the best pick of the top 5, you know it was a weak year. In 2018, the same thing. If we'd had the first or second pick, we'd be laughing from here to Tuktoyuktuk because Dahlin and Svechnikov were the top 2 consensus choices. After that, the fact Bergevin couldn't get a centre via trade, moved him to draft one and KK was picked above where he should have gone though he'd never have gotten past 5 because Arizona was also looking for a centre and drafted a guy who should have gone later as well. I thought it was a gamble and one I would have taken as well. No criticism from me on that pick because we needed a centre badly. The development sucked, of course. Then, I assume you mean Reinbacher, at 5. It's way to early to judge if that was a mistake or not. No one stands out at that pick. ONce again, if we'd had any pick above that, it's a slam dunk. We seem to be really unlucky that way at the high spots in a given year, but do pretty well, if it's later and others have missed the boat on some guys. Reinbacher could be really good. Michkov has red flags all over him. Benson is another small guy, if talented. Leonard is good, but still a bit small (6') for a power forward. It's as if there are 6 players you could take at that spot and you might as well roll a six sided die to pick them. Who the hell knows who will turn out best? In 5 years time we might be slapping Hughes on the back and congratulating him for not taking any of the other 5 guys he might have picked. We will have to agree to disagree. I never have supported your “dumb luck” arguments Montreal drafting high has one common thread to them in 90% of the selections. The draft by need and not by BPA. So let’s look at the examples you elaborated on. We draft Galchenyuk at #3. Why? Because we needed a Center. Was it weak draft though, for a team with the number 3 pick? Galchenyuk wasn’t exactly a poor choice. If you redid the draft he’d still get selected in the first round. But other first round selections were Reilly, Forsberg, Hertl, Teravainen, and Vasilevsky. We ended that season with Peter Budaj as the back up. I doubt they’d ever draft Vasilevsky with Price as a 25 yr old (and just getting rid of Halak). But who knows, Price was draft with Theodore a 28 yr old and a recent Hart/Vezina. The point here is that it wasn’t dumb luck. We had our sight set on a center (and never used him as a Center) Then 2018. What did we do? We drafted a Center? Why? Because once again “centers are hard to find unless you draft them”. Were there better players available? Absolutey. Brady Tkachuk was the consensus #3 (as much as you and I hated the thought). Then we also had some D issues and we could have had Quinn Hughes. Dumb luck? No way, the team had blinders for a Center. And once again did not use him at Center. So why are we drafting for need and not developing based on that need? Last year we drafted based on character. Not skill. Character. Now I like Slaf. But the team puts too much thought into tangibles and , IMO, overthinks their picks. We still needed a center last year, but I guess we can say at least they learned about drafting for need 🥴 Then this year we go back to drafting based on need. Yes, the last two are too early. But since this team never seems to go with BPA, my value of our draft picks diminishes. |
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Post by Tankdriver on Jul 26, 2023 11:37:16 GMT -5
I wonder if Michkov would of been drafted higher if he didn't have 2 more years left in the KHL and Russian factor.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 26, 2023 17:06:43 GMT -5
My son and I were disappointed about Dubois, but we are over it. What can you do... I was just fine with the club not landing Pierre-Luc Dubois ... IMHO, he has a lot more to prove to earn the scratch he just signed for ... the price was too high ... the assets that went the other way, and the money he got were poor business decisions ... mind you, if he helps LA win another Cup, then the deal was well worth it ... I'm not convinced on Gabe Vilardi or PLD, for that matter ... not sure what to make of Kirby Dach, just yet ... I know he had a pretty decent year, but I need to see more ... ditto, Vilardi ... It wouldn't surprise me if the team is part of that train wreck of teams vying for the last wildcard spot, yet at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me if they landed another top 10-15 pick ... that's where the team is for me, anyway ... I initially thought Pierre Dorion had an awesome off-season, but it just never panned out ... thought of the Habs trying to obtain Alexis Lafrenière earlier in the season, only because of the NY Ranger connection ... still, as with Dach, I need to see more of him ... ditto, Kaapo Kakko, as far as that goes ... Cheers. |
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Lafreniere
Jul 27, 2023 15:00:05 GMT -5
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Post by Cranky on Jul 27, 2023 15:00:05 GMT -5
Still no contract for Laffy.
If itlooks like a fish, smells like a fish and talks like a fish, it's a fish.
Contract talk is bogged down and that means that Laffy is still "gettable". Not that i want him, but at a certain price, vastly smaller then the Rags want, i would trade for him.
IF the pro scouts see him as future 50-60 pointer then Anderson with 2 million retained may be in the cards.
Rags get a now player and we get a lot younger maybe better player. Maybe.
Let's see...
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Lafreniere
Jul 27, 2023 15:32:31 GMT -5
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 27, 2023 15:32:31 GMT -5
Still no contract for Laffy. If itlooks like a fish, smells like a fish and talks like a fish, it's a fish. Contract talk is bogged down and that means that Laffy is still "gettable". Not that i want him, but at a certain price, vastly smaller then the Rags want, i would trade for him. IF the pro scouts see him as future 50-60 pointer then Anderson with 2 million retained may be in the cards. Rags get a now player and we get a lot younger maybe better player. Maybe. Let's see... That would be a decent deal, too bad Laffy couldn't play right wing, put him with CC and Suze and see what happens... at 6'1" he would be the power forward of the line so to speak |
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Post by folatre on Jul 27, 2023 20:57:30 GMT -5
In general, I do not worry about the whole cannot a winger play his off side. Skilled guys who are also willing to pay attention to the small details are fine either way.
Also, I believe Lafreniere in his peak years is going to be a 55-65 point type winger, so it's not like his offensive production is a huge issue provided that management does not overpay under the illusion that he will be a 40-40 type guy.
Having said that, I think at this stage I do not believe the Rangers even contemplate Anderson (at $2 million retained) for Lafreniere straight up. And Hughes has already expressed publicly that he does not contemplate retaining on players who are not on expiring contracts. I think if Hughes was flexible on that issue and said okay I will retain on Anderson for four years and we add Harris and Lafreniere is willing to sign something reasonable medium-term with the Habs, then maybe I would pull the trigger but seriously those are a bunch of ifs that probably do not come to fruition.
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Lafreniere
Jul 27, 2023 21:37:38 GMT -5
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Post by PTH on Jul 27, 2023 21:37:38 GMT -5
In general, I do not worry about the whole cannot a winger play his off side. Skilled guys who are also willing to pay attention to the small details are fine either way. Also, I believe Lafreniere in his peak years is going to be a 55-65 point type winger, so it's not like his offensive production is a huge issue provided that management does not overpay under the illusion that he will be a 40-40 type guy. Having said that, I think at this stage I do not believe the Rangers even contemplate Anderson (at $2 million retained) for Lafreniere straight up. And Hughes has already expressed publicly that he does not contemplate retaining on players who are not on expiring contracts. I think if Hughes was flexible on that issue and said okay I will retain on Anderson for four years and we add Harris and Lafreniere is willing to sign something reasonable medium-term with the Habs, then maybe I would pull the trigger but seriously those are a bunch of ifs that probably do not come to fruition. A 21 year old, 60 point winger with size would be worth quite a bit on the trade market... I almost wish we'd kept our powder dry rather than paying a steep price for Newhook. |
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Lafreniere
Jul 28, 2023 12:30:48 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Jul 28, 2023 12:30:48 GMT -5
Steep price?
Newhook has the same PPG as Lafreniere.
Lafreniere would cost about 2 million more than Newhook just because he is a local kid. We have yet to see a local kid discount, we always seem to overpay
Newhook’s contract ($2.9 M) is pretty much on par with what was expected of a 30 point player entering his second contract. Most on here had him getting in the $2.5-3.0 range. Now I ask you, will Lafreniere come to Montreal for 3.5 million? He is only a 30 point player and that would be more than we gave to Newhook and Dach who were in similar situations. Montreal can sign a 3.5 million player now and make the cap work. So it isn’t out cap that’s the issue, it’s what everyone knows to be true - the overpaying to sign him
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Post by seventeen on Jul 28, 2023 13:24:44 GMT -5
This is an interesting dilemma because we don't have a firm conviction that Lafreniere will turn out to be a solid player, much like we had with Dach and are having with Newhook. I've seen flashes of Lafreniere's skill but there isn't any one thing that stands out. Maybe that's his strength, that he does a lot of things well and just hasn't put it all together yet. We also don't know what NY is asking for in return. If it's a lot more than a 31st and 37th overall picks, then perhaps the risk isn't worth the cost. IMO, that price for Newhook was reasonable. I've seen enough of him to see those flashes of excellence. As well, speed kills and Newhook has a ton of it. Our team needed to get faster, to play the up tempo game MSL desires. Lafrenier's skating is fine, but he'd lose a race with Newhook, comfortably.
It would appear that waiting Drury out is the best policy. Unfortunately, we may not like either possible result. If Lafreniere breaks out this year, NY will want to keep him and the price goes way up. If he has plateaued or dropped, he'll be cheaper, but will we still want him?
Sigh.
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Lafreniere
Jul 28, 2023 14:57:13 GMT -5
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Post by Cranky on Jul 28, 2023 14:57:13 GMT -5
The value of Laffy to the Rags is far higher then the value of trading for him for everyone else.
That's why he's a hard pass...unless it's a lower asking.
Dach and Newhook seem to be the exceptions for value although Newhook acquisition wasn't that cheap.
At this point, Laffy is a summer distraction...
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Lafreniere
Jul 28, 2023 16:30:53 GMT -5
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 28, 2023 16:30:53 GMT -5
This is an interesting dilemma because we don't have a firm conviction that Lafreniere will turn out to be a solid player, much like we had with Dach and are having with Newhook. I've seen flashes of Lafreniere's skill but there isn't any one thing that stands out. Maybe that's his strength, that he does a lot of things well and just hasn't put it all together yet. We also don't know what NY is asking for in return. If it's a lot more than a 31st and 37th overall picks, then perhaps the risk isn't worth the cost. IMO, that price for Newhook was reasonable. I've seen enough of him to see those flashes of excellence. As well, speed kills and Newhook has a ton of it. Our team needed to get faster, to play the up tempo game MSL desires. Lafrenier's skating is fine, but he'd lose a race with Newhook, comfortably. It would appear that waiting Drury out is the best policy. Unfortunately, we may not like either possible result. If Lafreniere breaks out this year, NY will want to keep him and the price goes way up. If he has plateaued or dropped, he'll be cheaper, but will we still want him? Sigh. I hope Newhook has Byron speed, it's what we've been missing... |
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