How far would you go in trades?

[Cranky]

Playing NHL2000 now but here is my offers to rocket fuel the rebuild...

Zegras...our 1st top 5 protected. If Lindstrome is available then no. So basically 6 to 9 pick. Possible Harris/Struble/Barron depending how Hughes sees him.

Frost...late 1st and maybe one of the extra defenseman. See above.

Kakko...late 2nd. I don't care if he was a 2nd OA. That ship sailed and sunk somewhere in the North Atlantic.

Kaliyev...late 2nd or Pinard. Hughes would know better. Kaliyev has been a healthy scratch for 3 straight games. Why? I would run a drug test on him. Is he heading for Europe? Or is he just plain old kid who hasn't a clue what to expect and needs a change of scenery.

If we don't draft anyone this year but solve our top 6 with multiple trades, I'm good.



BTW...Ghally and Armia, trade them for a plate of fries and poutine. I'd bring back Monahan as a mentor.

[folatre]

It is not likely that a pick in the 6-10 range will yield a better NHLer than Zegras. However, it is possible and frankly I would rather have that, say, 20 percent chance that Montreal drafts an elite offensive talent than inherits a talented young NHLer 200 games into his career who does not play like a legit first liner. You know, my answer would be yes if Zegras was already signed long-term to a Caufield-like contract. But I simply get a bad vibe about acquiring an American who just played hardball with Verbeek at the negotiating table.

Maybe I am in the minority here, but I am not super high on Frost. I basically see him as a faster, 25 year old version of Dvorak. I would not give up Winnipeg's first for Frost.

Kakko's numbers in the league have been underwhelming, but the skill and reach are still tantalizing. Drury would never trade him for a late second. I would offer Winnipeg's first and Harris.

I may like Kaliyev more than some given how he is just sort of a one-dimensional offensive player who has not put up good numbers through his ELC. However, I get the feeling the one thing that he can do really well could be ripe for a major takeoff. I would offer Colorado's second and Harris.

[Cranky]

One of the big thing, maybe HUGE thing is how this team gels into a "us vs them" unit.

Players like Zegras and Kaliyev raise it to another level of commitment to winning? Neither has been accused of bringing the 200ft game which is partly due to their junior success, partly to their current coaching and part to team commitment.

This is where coaching becomes critical. We're not talking about a veteran team that welcomes the "new kids" and through leadership and commitment, helps mold them into "champions". This isn't the 70s Habs. Robinson, Gainey and Lemaire are not going to give them a talk and a hug.

So the coach has to figure out how to get this young and perhaps spirited but yet hardened to play at "we must win" level?

I'm absolutely convinced that Sabres and Hens are not suffering from talent, but from commitment and coaching.

Sooo...yes, Zegras and Kaliyev are potential disappointments and career PLDonkeys in the making...OR they buy into the team and coaching, bringing immense committed talent. Easily top 6. Easily matching our current height of talent.

Kakko and Frost are more sure things of competence. Not greatness. Kakko has no deficiencies in his game yet going nowhere fast. Superfast. I see a lot of Lehkonen in the making. Frost is indeed Dvorak with more speed and smarts. Can he be a 2C? He's already matched Dvoraks best and there is more there.

These 4 would wipe out most of our 2024 draft capital, but I rather have 4 guys in the NHL then 4 prospects that may...or may not turn out to be NHLers.

With that said, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I rest my case.

[Tankdriver]

Of the 4 players you mentioned, I only like Kaliyev and Zegras. Players the only put up 40-45 point are a dime a dozen in the NHL and we have plenty of those. However, I do like your thinking on going after young somewhat developped players. How about Kent Johnson in Columbus?

Another thing the Habs brass should start doing is packing some of those picks to move up in the draft. Ex: Our 7 OA with a third rounder and 4th rounder to move up to 4th OA, etc.

[seventeen]

There's sure a lot of divergence here on these kids, which isn't surprising given the uncertainty around them.

My guess is the guy I'd target would be Kakko. I have seen him play a few times and I like the combo of size, speed and the skill he's shown occasionally. Is he another Slaf waiting to break out with the right approach or another Armia? I'm going to guess that Marty is a different enough coach from the two guys Kakko has had, who are old style 'we don't teach in the NHL' types, that Kakko would gain confidence and the talent would break out. I'm thinking, like folatre, that it will take Winnipeg's first and Harris or Kovacevic to make that fly. Or Ylonen, as Marty doesn't seem to see him in future plans.

There's no way I'm giving up our first this year. We have an outside shot at Celebrini and pretty good shots at either Lindstrom or Catton to help solidify our centre situation in case Dach isn't the same guy after the injury.

Top 6 (potentially) of Suze, Cole, Slaf: Dach, Newhook, Roy. The rest is up in the air, to some degree but you'd have our first this year, Kakko, Beck, Tuch, Heineman, Mesar, Farrell, Florian, Eriksson, Rohrer, Davidson, Kidney, Kapanen, and Mysak. Don't get me wrong....very few of that list are going to be around in 3 years, but the fact there are good numbers raises the probability that someone is going to bloom and add something unexpectedly. Struble looks like he's doing that this year and almost no one had pegged him to join the future core group. Add to that the 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders and 2 third rounders from 2025 and the probability numbers rise again. Or, as Hughes has proven, some of that draft capital goes into another deal to acquire another Dach, Newhook (or Kakko) type.

[folatre]

I believe we all agree that, strategically speaking, Montreal's management wants to add NHL-ready talent in order to accelerate the rebuild. What we do not know, though of course it is fun to talk about, is who may be on Hughes' radar, whether they are even available, and if they are then what would it require.

People always connect Hughes to American prospects (USNTDP and/or NCAA) because he played college hockey in Vermont, built his legal/player agent career in the States, and was a hockey dad whose own son played with or got to know a bunch of the American kids who came through the 2018-2020 draft classes. I get it and that is logical, to a degree. However, I am skeptical about connecting Montreal to Zegras both because of the Ducks' ask and the looming issue of the kid's contract.

Likewise, people understandably want to connect young NHL-talent drafted by Gorton in New York to the Habs. And by the way, I would indeed be sniffing around about Kakko if I were sitting in the GM chair in Montreal. Yet I am not so sure the Rangers are really actively shopping him because he is a 23 year old kid who was the second overall in the 2019 draft, probably got rushed into the league, and notched a 40 point season last year. But I do think Drury is listening if his peers want to have exploratory chats about the player. Just spitballing here, but with Chytil's future looking murky, there is no denying how badly New York could use a 2C like Zegras, who would love the Big Apple market, and what if Drury offers Verbeek his choice of Kakko, Cuylle, or Perreault and the Rangers' 2024 first?

[Cranky]

A bit of reality...

6 of the top 10 are defenseman.

After Celebrini the top ranked forward at 5.OA is a Russian RW.

Then at 6.OA center Helenius and 9th is Catton.

The can't miss Lindstrom is rated at 12th and Boisvert at 14.

This would rank as the worse draft possible for the Habs to pick 6-9. It will be another Kotkaneimi moment picking for need and not BPA which is very likely to be a defenseman.

Cotton or Helenius would be our first center picks which read like they are no better then Frost. With the reality that Frost is already an NHLer.

Lindstrom is huge and dominates by his size. Unless he has Lindros written all over him, his size is his biggest weapon. Which of course means nothing in the NHL where he would be playing against man.

This is a case where our 1st in the 6-9 position is as valuable to us as 15-18 in last year draft. Unless of course we want to pile up even more defenseman.

The reason I rather put all our draft capital on the table is to make sure we have at least 4 NHL players coming out of it and push the rebuild.

Do we want to pray under the statue of Our Lady Of The Perptual Rebuild....and endless supply of hopium.

www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnets-2024-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-february-edition/

www.eliteprospects.com/draft-center/sportsnet-cosentino

[Willie Dog]

Feb 21, 2024 1:23:39 GMT -5 Cranky said:

A bit of reality...

6 of the top 10 are defenseman.

After Celebrini the top ranked forward at 5.OA is a Russian RW.

Then at 6.OA center Helenius and 9th is Catton.

The can't miss Lindstrom is rated at 12th and Boisvert at 14.

This would rank as the worse draft possible for the Habs to pick 6-9. It will be another Kotkaneimi moment picking for need and not BPA which is very likely to be a defenseman.

Cotton or Helenius would be our first center picks which read like they are no better then Frost. With the reality that Frost is already an NHLer.

Lindstrom is huge and dominates by his size. Unless he has Lindros written all over him, his size is his biggest weapon. Which of course means nothing in the NHL where he would be playing against man.

This is a case where our 1st in the 6-9 position is as valuable to us as 15-18 in last year draft. Unless of course we want to pile up even more defenseman.

The reason I rather put all our draft capital on the table is to make sure we have at least 4 NHL players coming out of it and push the rebuild.

Do we want to pray under the statue of Our Lady Of The Perptual Rebuild....and endless supply of hopium.

www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/sportsnets-2024-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-february-edition/

www.eliteprospects.com/draft-center/sportsnet-cosentino

It also depends on which of the many ranking that are listed that you choose... McKenzie has 6 forwards in the top 10, Sportsnet Bukala has 5, so does dobberprospects... McKeens has 7 forwards in the top 10.

[seventeen]

Feb 21, 2024 6:02:13 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

It also depends on which of the many ranking that are listed that you choose... McKenzie has 6 forwards in the top 10, Sportsnet Bukala has 5, so does dobberprospects... McKeens has 7 forwards in the top 10.

I believe Sam Cosentino has Catton at #2, which is depressing because if we don't get Celebrini, that's the guy I'm interested in. A centre who was the captain on the Hlinka team and who wins face-offs and puts up a lot of points. He's put up 41-48-89 in 54 games for Spokane (who wear Habs like Unis). The Chiefs are 4th in the US division of the WHL, just under .500 and have a goal differential of -16. Catton is 9 points ahead of the 20 year old who plays on his line and then it drops off to 63 points and 45 points. Spokane is not a juggernaut and if they didn't have Catton, they'd probably be living in the basement.

So who is ranked where depends hugely on the list and their opinion and biases and who they've seen and at what times and so on. McKenzie's list is often the fairest because it's a compilation of a number of scouts' rankings. to save you the time, here are the top 10 from Bob's list:

1. Mckline Celebrini (of course)
2. Anton Silayev (D)
3. Artyomm Levshunov (D)
4. Cole Eiserman (F)
5. Cayden Lidstrom (C)
6. Ivan Demidov (F)
7. Sam Dickinson (D)
8. Konsta Helenius (C)
9. Zayne Parekh (D)
10. Berkley Catton (C)

This is great because I think Catton should be higher and I'm never wrong. Setting that aside, 2 of the top 5 are Dmen and Parekh has been sizzling up the charts so he could be in that top 5 conversation. This is all wonderful news. I think that with the uncertainty over Dach's injury, HuGo are probably looking for another centre. While they wouldn't turn up their noses at Demidov or Eiserman, another big centre like Lidstrom or a super skilled, character centre like Catton would be their preference.

[folatre]

For sure, guys like Catton, Lidstrom, and Eiserman could be nice value in the 6-10 range. And it is not the end of the world that they would not realistically be NHL-ready in 2024-25.

I believe Hughes will add a young (U25) NHLer up front, but that does not mean he is trading the Habs first rounder. Yes, never say never. But for me at least the only way I would trade the pick when a kid like Catton, Lidstrom or Eiserman will likely be sitting there would be in the event that something momentous happens and a bona fide offensive difference-maker is suddenly available.

[Cranky]

About the only bonafide offensive difference maker in the news is...Zegras.

Or not.

Let's be clear, I would welcome a young, huge Lindros. But let's also be clear, not any breathing human can guarantee you from this draft class if it's another Lindros or another, get ready to cry, another Poehling, Kotkabust or Galchen'yuk, all "big centers" and the answer to our forever center issues.

So maybe it's not Zegras, maybe it's Pinto or Johnson or...another actually young center that is actually a proven NHLer.

Unless its 2023 and 3 top centers (or Celebrini) are on the draft menu, with no doubt in anyone's mind how good they are, a sure fire 2C is worth a lot of hopium that will take 3-4 years to show their true value.

(Yes, my hopium is running low...)

[seventeen]

I would love to get my hands on Ridley Greig but I don't think Ottawa will give him up. I'd be reluctant to trade our top pick for him though. I see him topping out as a good #2 C with an all around game. But he would not be a game changer type. Our best hope is still that top pick this year (especially if it's Celebrini), and Calgary's pick next year if the domininoes all fall into place. This is an excellent example that in order to have a continuing line of talent, you have to draft well first of all, and then you have to trade decent players a year or 2 earlier than you might, for future picks down the road when a team doesn't know how it will be doing. You'd be rolling the dice on a team having an unexpectedly bad season, but that happens and you can hit the jackpot, which sets your team up for the next decade.

[Cranky]

The reason I'm getting impatient is that right now I'm doing a lot of deleting because I'm fustrated seeing them lose.

I don't want to stomach a several year rebuilding plan.like the Sabres.

Only way i see that changing is rolling...loaded dice.

If Hughes is that good, prove it...

[folatre]

Greig is enjoying a solid season, but I think it would be a major reach to trade a top 10 pick for him.

I really think the guys that Poulin and Staois may be looking at moving (Korpisalo is not tradeable) could be Norris and Chychrun or Chabot. I would not trade a top 10 pick any of them either.

Cranky, don't get me wrong, Zegras can produce a lot offensively and get people jumping up out their seats. My point is simply that I do not see Zegras as a top-tier producer (nor would I put Suzuki or Caufield in that category). So I am skeptical about giving up a top 10 pick plus a young d-man (Xhekaj, Struble, or Hutson) for Zegras who is not signed long-term and may want to play hardball to secure a contract bigger than Suzuki's.

[Cranky]

I don't see much difference between Norris, Greig or Frost. None of them strike me as 1C just waiting to explode out of them like some alien creature. Pinto more likely. A better "bet".

Pinto or Cousins or Beniers, I would think hard if they arecworth our protected 1st but the other 3 would be late first and Harris.

The obvious problem is that no GM in his right mind would give up a young rising star center for our 6-9. The only hope is that we have a sure fire 50 point 2C and hope Suzuki/Dach rise to 1C and 1C.

Yes, I think Zegras will play hardball. If he has two 60 point seasons back to back he's going to want 10-11 million. That's just tooooo much for a player that I don't think will ever become a true 1C. Nor a 100 point producers.

[folatre]

Pinto was rather sour over the summer about Dorion taking care of everyone in the core long-term and then splurging on Tarasenko with the limited cap space remaining, but nevertheless he has no leverage this summer and I am sure Staois and Poulin will try to smooth things over and make the kid feel highly valued. Among their forwards, I think they are willing to listen on Norris and perhaps Batherson.

Ronnie Francis is not trading Beniers unless something crazy happens in the summer like Edmonton hitting a brick wall in their post-July 1 efforts to extend Draisaitl, and suddenly Seattle gets an opportunity to acquire a top five player in league (assuming they splash the cash and the big German agrees to sign there long-term).

Cozens was expressing significant frustration in post-game scrums earlier in the season, but things would really have to unravel in the player-club relationship for Adams to start listening because the kid is a really nice player locked up long-term at $7.1

But yeah, for sure, interesting names to contemplate.

[Cranky]

I'm selling of a piece of equipment and had a hugely fustrating afternoon with the people who are buying it.

In their reality i was "lucky" that i had the business and "lucky" i got the contract.

The absolute worse thing you can say to me about business (or accuse me of having) is that it depends on luck. I preffer to get an arm sawed of with a rusted chain saw then attribute success to luck.

My point? Hughes needs to do the relentlessly hard work of scouting, analyzing, assessing every damn thing in front of him. EVERYTHING. 24/7/365. Then taking the calculated out risks, which should have absolutely nothing to do with "lucked out in the trade".

Obviously it's hard work. At any given time there would be 1000 NHLer and probably 2000 prospects to keep track of.

Keeping track and working out how to obtain the better ones is his job.

Hire the scouts that can properly assess then and then have the cahones to pull the trigger if a deal gain can be had.

IT'S NOT LUCK

[seventeen]

It seems to me that Hughes is doing all those things. My favourite definition of luck is preparation running into opportunity. All those tactics you mentioned are the preparation part. Then, it's a matter of the opportunity arising.

The example that Hughes is doing this is a simple one. It seems at least half the fan base is coming up with trade ideas, most of which involve us retaining salary on this guy and that guy. Hughes has been adamant that if another GM is interested in a Hab, there's no salary retention. There wasn't when he traded Monahan and he's holding onto that last retention spot with a vise like grip. Why? Well, we don't know. He doesn't know. He does know that there may be something really good out there that pops up in the next 2 weeks that will require salary retention and he wants to have that weapon in his arsenal. That's preparation. He could have moved out Armia, or Evans or Savard at any time with some salary retention, but it's not happening. Now, that something may not come up. The TDL may pass and we'll still have a retention spot. It's not a waste because we'll still have it this summer when it may be needed again.

BTW, how did you respond to those guys who think you're lucky? Chuckle.

[Cranky]

Feb 23, 2024 21:26:25 GMT -5 seventeen said:

BTW, how did you respond to those guys who think you're lucky? Chuckle.

My wife stripped them down, so far down they were holding on their underwear.

I despise people who attribute success to anything other then relentless work and smarts. Or blame others for their limitations and/or failures.

Edit...the son of one of my customers who needed Friday off to play golf because, well, he did work 9 hours a day the other 4 days, when he sunk his dads company....damn Bush did it...

Anywho....my point that never deviates is that it takes a LOT of work to scout a lot of players, probing and prodding to create opportunities and make the team better.

[folatre]

There is no cap for scouting, so yes any organization obsessed with winning should load up those resources.

For sure, Hughes is not retaining on a contract through next season for some low value 4th rounder or B prospect. It is not worth tying the hands going into the summer and next season.

I have no real expectations for the Habs deadline activity. Monahan was the major move. My only hope is that post-deadline, Allen is either waived or quietly made the third (infrequent) starter for the remainder of the season and Pearson spends most nights in the press box.

[seventeen]

From his play, it's unlikely Allen is worth anything. Lots of minor league guys trying to make the NHL who are as capable, and much cheaper. The guy who might be moving is Jake Evans. GM's are always looking for a decent 4th line centre. Evans wins his share of face-offs, is right handed, kills penalties and even chips in the odd point. And, with a $1.7MM contract around this time of year, his CAP salary equates to about $500K. Cheap. And only 1 year left on his salary in 24/25. That's a reasonable cost for what he brings. No retention would be needed.

[Cranky]

I was looking at which team we can raid...

Sabres...

Cozens...dropped off from last year. Why?

Thompson...rose like a rocket last year, got a fat contract and now down to his normal. Why? PLDonkey syndrome or overachiever last year?

Power...regressing, sophomore blues or simply not that great?

Krebs...bust or ? We're missing pieces from owning all of the 2019 draft.

Mittelestadt...looking for a new contract. Is he a 2C looking for big money? Can he be a 1C?

Buffalo looked like they had C all locked up with Cozens and Thompson, not so much anymore so I wonder, will they trade any centers or are they going to hang on to them?

Any other team underperforming and needs a helpful raiding?

[folatre]

In general, teams doing a lot of losing are ill-advised to trade away young quality NHLers. However, there are always exceptions. Sometimes a new GM has a new vision and may not like how all the pieces are fitting together.

Regarding Buffalo, it is hard to know. Adams is finishing year four at the helm. The organization is about to miss the playoffs for the mind-boggling 13th consecutive season. It seems implausible that Adams would move Cozens or any of his higher-end young roster players in a package significantly weighted with draft picks. My old university bud is a Sabres lifer and season-ticket holder, and he tells me the mood even among the diehards is really sour.

I would not be interested in Krebs, no thanks. Adams seems way too risk-averse to trade Thompson or Power. Cozens is probably not available and even if he were, Buffalo would probably insist on Caufield or Reinbacher. Yeah, Mittelstadt has really come on during his second NHL contract and is clearly out-performing it handily. I imagine the Sabres are pleased with his development, though with the point totals he is putting up and the kid/agent feeling underpaid, Adams likely knows his only chance to sign the kid long term will involve an AAV starting with a 7, which may or may not give management pause.

Among the bottom-dwellers who recently fired their GMs, Ottawa and Columbus stand out. But that does not mean they will be looking to trade serious talents who are on their ELC.

[jkr]

I just finished reading a book called Draft Day by Doug McLean. It has some interesting tales to tell & he make some admissions to mistakes made while he was running Columbus.

The reason I mention this here is that he mentions Sam Pollock several times. Apparently Pollock had a hard and fast rule - never trade a player under the age of 23. He felt that you dont really know a guy unril he reaches that age. Apparently he resisted Bowman's suggestion to trade Lafleur with that rule in mind. I don't know how many GMs would follow this today. Briere just traded Gauthier. But if they are smart guys should hang on to players until they know what they have.

[IamCanadiens]

Feb 25, 2024 13:20:31 GMT -5 jkr said:

I just finished reading a book called Draft Day by Doug McLean. It has some interesting tales to tell & he make some admissions to mistakes made while he was running Columbus.

The reason I mention this here is that he mentions Sam Pollock several times. Apparently Pollock had a hard and fast rule - never trade a player under the age of 23. He felt that you dont really know a guy unril he reaches that age. Apparently he resisted Bowman's suggestion to trade Lafleur with that rule in mind. I don't know how many GMs would follow this today. Briere just traded Gauthier. But if they are smart guys should hang on to players until they know what they have.

Briere had no choice as Gauthier had him by the pucks. Asset management

[seventeen]

Feb 25, 2024 13:20:31 GMT -5 jkr said:

I just finished reading a book called Draft Day by Doug McLean. It has some interesting tales to tell & he make some admissions to mistakes made while he was running Columbus.

The reason I mention this here is that he mentions Sam Pollock several times. Apparently Pollock had a hard and fast rule - never trade a player under the age of 23. He felt that you dont really know a guy unril he reaches that age. Apparently he resisted Bowman's suggestion to trade Lafleur with that rule in mind. I don't know how many GMs would follow this today. Briere just traded Gauthier. But if they are smart guys should hang on to players until they know what they have.

Perhaps the one exception to Pollock's under 23 rule is if you're moving them for another under 23 player. Habs will be looking at that strategy, to lighten up the LHD surplus. Actually, I'd rather they trade Matheson but maybe not for a year as they still need some experience back there. Guhle will be going into his 3rd season but it's more like his second because of the injuries. We have young guys but they're even less experienced than they should be because of missed time.

To consider Cranky's question...Buffalo seems the most obvious target because they have little depth on D after Power and Dahlin. Harris would help them, Kovacevic would help them, Savard would help them, Mailloux or Engstrom would help them and if the return is good enough, Reinbacher would help them. Any Reinbacher deal would have to involve Cozens (another 2019 pick). I had Cozens and Dach as a coin flip at the draft. From my limited viewings, Dach involved his teammates more while Cozens was more individualistic, but both were highly skilled and good sized. Disregarding Cozens, because I don't think Buffalo has any desire to move him, who would we want. Looking a year or two further down the road, either Kulich or Ostlund makes sense. The Sabres have good centre strength and maybe that's the rationale for trading Mittelstadt and replacing him with either Kulich or Ostlund or Zach Benson. The point being they can afford to lose one. Harris is an obvious first choice, but he is so highly regarded character wise that I think Hughes wants to find a better landing spot for him than Buffalo.

[seventeen]

Feb 25, 2024 14:31:45 GMT -5 IamCanadiens said:

Feb 25, 2024 13:20:31 GMT -5 jkr said:

I just finished reading a book called Draft Day by Doug McLean. It has some interesting tales to tell & he make some admissions to mistakes made while he was running Columbus.

The reason I mention this here is that he mentions Sam Pollock several times. Apparently Pollock had a hard and fast rule - never trade a player under the age of 23. He felt that you dont really know a guy unril he reaches that age. Apparently he resisted Bowman's suggestion to trade Lafleur with that rule in mind. I don't know how many GMs would follow this today. Briere just traded Gauthier. But if they are smart guys should hang on to players until they know what they have.

Briere had no choice as Gauthier had him by the pucks. Asset management

All the more important to have a highly thought of management group. Treating players respectfully is required as it gets around.

[folatre]

Yes, you earn your reputation and it becomes currency that works in your favor or against you.

I am not aware Briere or Keith Jones did anything wrong. No matter his reasons for wanting to be on the West Coast of America, the kid displayed immaturity and a lack of judgment when he refused to meet with them in Sweden.

Thanks for the book recommendation, jkr. It sounds like a good read. And to apply your point that Pollock made, for example, I do not believe the Blue Jacket's next GM would trade a kid like Kent Johnson who is only 21 years old, with fewer than 150 games in the league, and another year to run on his ELC unless some GM out there made a crazy offer.

[PTH]

Feb 19, 2024 16:19:58 GMT -5 folatre said:

It is not likely that a pick in the 6-10 range will yield a better NHLer than Zegras. However, it is possible and frankly I would rather have that, say, 20 percent chance that Montreal drafts an elite offensive talent than inherits a talented young NHLer 200 games into his career who does not play like a legit first liner.

There's a statistical principle here that people seem willing to overlook - the odds of picking someone better than the player traded for the pick(s) aren't the only thing to take into account.

Montreal might have only 10% chance of drafting someone better than Monahan (as he is now) with the pick they got for him, but that includes elite-level players who we'll never be able to trade for, and that 10% chance might well play for us for a decade, in which case statistically it evens out, and timeline wise it can be a better fit.

Elite guys like Pacioretty or Pastrnak are almost never traded at age 21 for picks, but guys like Newhook might be. I don't dislike Newhook and I'll trust management had a good idea that no one with elite potential was going to be available at picks 31 or 37, but I want our team to be getting those 10% odds of superstars, and not trading our chances at a home run for pretty good players who definitely don't have the upside to be difference makers.

In fact... trading for less volatile assets is exactly what Bergevin kept on doing. Subban was unpredictable, he was traded for a highly predictable player with a tad less upside. We traded a prospect for a 60 point forward (Drouin) - it didn't work out in spectacular fashion, but it was never going to be give Montreal a superstar, whereas Sergachev still had huge variability in how he'd pan out.

[seventeen]

Feb 25, 2024 19:39:55 GMT -5 folatre said:

Yes, you earn your reputation and it becomes currency that works in your favor or against you.

I am not aware Briere or Keith Jones did anything wrong. No matter his reasons for wanting to be on the West Coast of America, the kid displayed immaturity and a lack of judgment when he refused to meet with them in Sweden.

I wondered about that too, but if I were to guess, I think there were more issues from the previous GM, Fletcher. Perhaps Danny made a minor rookie GM mistake and it was the last straw. Or...one of Gauthier's camp has a personality problem with the Flyers or with Torts. Tortorella doesn't have a forgiving reputation. Oh well, Briere did ok, pulling out Drysdale.