Draft Rankings

[seventeen]

I wonder if we aren't overrating the defense crop this year. There are a lot of good dmen available, but I haven't read anywhere that any one of them is a surefire #1, like Rasmus Dahlin was and is. It feels more like a lot of #2 guys and some excellent offensive types. The guy to me that seems to have the highest ceiling offensively and defensively is Zeev Buium. At least his coach had him out for every shift against the BC line of Smith-Leonard-Perrault, which shows a lot of defensive trust, but also good puck possession. That's my impression anyway. Having said that, if one or two of them correct their current deficiencies, they might well be really good #1's.

[folatre]

I would pick Levshunov over any forward not named Celebrini and Demidov without any hesitation. But he is not going to be there at #5.

So in reality the choices will not be binary; they will be murkier. Would Hughes take Iginla, Lindstrom, or Catton over the other highly regarded d-men? It would give me pause to pass on Buium because I think he profiles to be special but to be honest I would probably take Lindstrom over Buium if the doctors say there is nothing chronic with his back. And I would not have any problem 'prioritizing' need if the choice is Iginla, Lindstrom, or Catton over Parekh, Dickinson, or Silayev.

Time will say. It is great time of year -- playoff hockey, nice weather, and the draft right around the corner.

[Cranky]

I would go one better then just draft Lev at 5th. If he fell to 4th, I'd offer the Jackets our low 1st to move up and draft him.

If Lev, Linstrom (no back problems) and Demidov are gone, it's a freaking crap shoot who to pick at 5. It's also a crap shoot if anyone left is a shoe in for top 2 D or top 3F.

I can't wait for the draft. IF Hughes pulls a Dach trade AND gets one of the above 3, it could be one that makes us a contender sooner...or he flubs it and we land up with Kakko/KK and me Krying...

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

May 17, 2024 21:35:10 GMT -5 Cranky said:

I would go one better then just draft Lev at 5th. If he fell to 4th, I'd offer the Jackets our low 1st to move up and draft him.

If Lev, Linstrom (no back problems) and Demidov are gone, it's a freaking crap shoot who to pick at 5. It's also a crap shoot if anyone left is a shoe in for top 2 D or top 3F.

I can't wait for the draft. IF Hughes pulls a Dach trade AND gets one of the above 3, it could be one that makes us a contender sooner...or he flubs it and we land up with Kakko/KK and me Krying...

Of all the players in the draft, who has the greatest chance of getting 100 points. Eiserman. Yes he is also most likely to disappoint but we need a superstar and he is one opportunity to be great. Catton is also a high ceiling

[Boston_Habs]

The question is how many of the D prospects will go in the top 4. The Athletic mock draft has 3 of them (Levshunov, Silayev, Dickinson) going 2-3-4, leaving Montreal to draft Demidov at #5. That sounds like a stretch but I don't think it would be a surprise to see 2 dmen go in the top 4, which would leave one of Demidov or Lindstrom available at #5.

[seventeen]

AS Mckenzie said, all bets are off after Celebrini is picked. Imagine if Celebrini wasn't the first pick. Wouldn't that really throw everything into a spin cycle? Everyone is assuming it, but if Greer has been feasting on mushrooms before the draft, and really, really likes the giant Silayev as his defensive lynch pin for the next 15 years, does he go that route? He's already got Wil Smith, William Eklund, Filip Bystedt and Quentin Musty up front, but nothing at the back end, in a heavy defense man draft. Might he not go that route?

There, just thought I'd stir the pot. While it's perhaps unreasonable, are the Sharks going to be this bad again next year? (probably). The draft next year is more focused on elite forwards, though a dman may rise to the surface. Can Greer take that chance? You have to get that stud defenseman when you can.

[Tankdriver]

How about. Trading us Smith for our number 5 and they can draft Celibrini and a very good defenseman.

[seventeen]

Works for me.

I understand that recently Hughes has stated publicly that they are no longer looking for a centre. One can conclude from this comment that they are very confident Dach is fully healed. To continue that line of thinking, we should believe they are comfortable with their collection of Suzuki, Dach, Newhook, Evans, Beck, Kapanen, Ericksson and anyone else I may have forgotten as their centres of the future and are now concentrating on wingers and maybe, possibly, a core, elite defender if one should fall into their laps.

I also take from that comment that they will preferably draft Demidov, Iginla, Sennecke. If a bigger dman like Silayev or Levshunov falls to 5, they might go that route too. Of course, they may draft Lindstrom as well if they see him as a winger rather than centre.

Lots more to speculate about.

[Boston_Habs]

Seems the door could be open to a trade, particularly if one or more of those top D are available at #5. Lots of teams are starved for top 4 D talent and that's our position of strength. Especially if Demidov and Lindstrom are both gone by #5 or if HuGo don't see much of a dropoff between the forwards on the board. Could easily trade down from #5 to somewhere around #10 and pick up an extra pick/prospect.

[folatre]

Intuitively, what you are saying is entirely logical. However, when one goes back through all of the drafts in the post-lockout era, teams simply do not trade down out of the top ten. There are literally like only one or two cases.

Of course, that does not mean Hughes is a sheep who will simply follow established convention. But money would say Montreal is going to use their pick at fifth overall.

[seventeen]

I can't see them trading down. There are always scenarios where the 5th pick is traded or is part of a larger deal. One example might be, as Tankdriver mentioned above, that San Jose feels good with their centres, but that Celebrini is an improvement on Wil Smith (he is) and dangles Smith to the Habs for #5.

Maybe Winnipeg, needing help up the middle and if Lindstrom is still there, offers up Perfetti and McGroarty for our #5 and Logan Mailloux. One can fiddle with the player(s) to be added to the pick, but that's the base of a deal. Perfetti is like Newhook in that he hasn't achieved his ceiling but the IQ and skills are there. McGroarty is 6' 1" 200 lbs (and plays like 230 lbs) and produced 16-36-52 in 36 games for Michigan U last year. He's also captained teams including the gold medal US WJC team last January

[Tankdriver]

Button, has come out with a new list. He has 4 forwards going top 4. Celebrini, Demidov, HELENIUS (this screams KK to me), IGINLA.

Then the top 4 defencemen ( Parekh, Buium, LEVSHUNOV (first I have seen outside top 5) and Dickinson

He rounds out with Eiserman and the Lindstrom, Yakemchuk and Sennecke.

So I would say top two seems to be consensus and then from 3-12 is all over the map. GM's are going to have a hard time picking the right guy.

[seventeen]

His is the list I would give the least credence to. Craig likes to make statements and often, that means skewing the probabilities. I don't see how both Silayev and Levshunov stay out of the top 4. They're big, they both play the right side (even if Silayev is LH) and they both have skill. Silayev put up some impressive numbers for a 17 year old defenseman, something unheard of in the KHL (bearing in mind this is not the same KHL as in Ovechkin's days or even 3 years ago. The Rus/Ukraine war has weakened the talent pool. Despite that Silayev is still a hot prospect and isn't lasting past 4. Fact wise, San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus could all use a dman who plays on the right. It would not be a shock to see 3 defensemen go in the top 5.

So, Mr. Button, button it up.

[Cranky]

Buttons livelihood depends on eye balls. If he was agreeing with the others, there is no reason to interview$$ him.

AFAIK, IF Levshinov is there are 5 and Demidov/Lindstrom isn't there, you pick him. Then in time, if you have to, you trade him or Guhle for a top 3. If he turns out to be another Hedman, you keep him and laugh all the way to the cup.

There is no way I'm confident that Iggy is a top 3, nor Helenius, nor Sennecke. Too many holes in their game and not enough blinding talent. Much like KK, they are newly minted "oh my, look at how he ties his shoe laces, he's a keeper". That is exactly how KK came out of nowhere...and we picked him and went nowhere.

I said this before and I will say this again, this draft has all kinds of opportunities and TRAPS. Hughes better have done his homework and have 98 Plan A's ready to go.

[folatre]

Button may really love Helenius or it may be that he hears Verbeek loves the kid. I see Helenius being one of the very few kids who could step into the NHL and not look out of place; however, I think Helenius in the top five is a reach from a talent standpoint.

Iginla may well be a reach in the top five as well, though he is one of the youngest prospects in the 2024 draft. It is really hard to get much of a read on Columbus because they do not have GM and despite the fact that Davidson has been a front office exec for a long time I cannot discern any particular draft philosophy.

[Willie Dog]

Pronman's latest draft ranking is out... OMG... after Celebrini... 2 to 7 are D men and Demidov is at 8

www.nytimes.com/athletic/5518310/2024/05/28/nhl-draft-rankings-2024-prospects/

[Andrew]

May 29, 2024 16:52:14 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Pronman's latest draft ranking is out... OMG... after Celebrini... 2 to 7 are D men and Demidov is at 8

www.nytimes.com/athletic/5518310/2024/05/28/nhl-draft-rankings-2024-prospects/

I saw that also. Interesting that he has Catton and Sennecke rated higher than Demidov, and Lindstrom is at #10. Quite a bit different than McKenzie's list.

Also noteworthy is that his assessment of Demidov's skating as below average, and also Lindstrom's hockey sense as below average (his scale goes from: below average > average > above average > high end > elite). Incidentally he also has Demidov's puck skills as elite (no other player in the top 10 had an attribute rated as elite).

[folatre]

Interesting. It is one guy's ranking, which is fine. However, it is not a mock draft. And even as far as rankings go, it contains more 'outlier' takes so to speak.

[Cranky]

I haven't seen ANY of them play but I've done a tiny bit of homework.

Lindstrom...is the flavor of the day but from the description of his playing style, he's a younger Anderson. Meat and potatoes tough guys, not much imagination and north south player. That's great for Juniors where you can use size to maximum advantage, but not so much at the NHL level against Neanderthals. Then there is the issue of...does he or doesn't he have a back problem? Backs are like glass, if you break them, you can glue them but they are never the same. Vast difference from a broken arm or pulled muscle.

Levshunov...I don't care if we have the Ministry OF Defense, if he falls in our lap and we don't take him, Hughes should be fired INSTANTLY, right on the draft floor.

Sennecke...another Zegras in terms of puck handling. The kid is amazing, but also rumours/discussion that sometimes he's doing a PLDonkey in terms of involvement. He had a huge 6" growth spurt in the beginning of the season so that may have been be his biggest issue.

Demidov...if he's available at 5th and we don't draft him, Hughes should be fired and hired and fired again just to make sure he's run out of the NHL. Unless there is a high level of risk of him coming over, then that's another story.

Silayev...he's either another Chara or another Tinordi. Only the Hockey Goons...err...Gods know for sure. Everybody points to his size as if he's an elephant in a room. Problem is elephants don't play hockey. It doesn't matter is he's 7ft and 300 pounds, if players skate around him or he gets fished, he's a extra large PYLON. Remember the last "monster" we drafted, Komisarek had an invisible tail he chased around the ice.

Buium, Cotton, Parekh, Yakemchuk...these are not top 5 picks. These are the guys we pray some some GM takes so we get left with better choices.

The biggest question mark, highest risk and possibly immense reward is Senneke. He may be a better Zegras. Or not.

I don't know how many times I said that this draft is full of dangers, or immense rewards if some GM's don't do their due diligence.

Lastly...NOBODY would read these rags unless there was some controversy involved. Even if they KNOW that they are spewing nonsense, if it attracts 50,000 more views, it means more money in advertising or sign-ups.

[Tankdriver]

Berkley Catton oozes skill. Don't know why he is ranked so low.

[seventeen]

May 29, 2024 23:36:36 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Berkley Catton oozes skill. Don't know why he is ranked so low.

It's my belief there are two reasons involved. The first is size. He is 5'11", 170 and everyone seems infatuated with size these days. The other point is that I think some scouts are questioning his involvement level. My analysis of those same things leads me to different conclusions.

Something important to remember in Catton's game is his team. The Spokane Chiefs were a dog's breakfast of a team. Catton supposedly played 30 minutes a game because the coach needed to use him to have a hope of winning. Firstly, no forward averages 30 minutes a game. It's insane to expect a centre, who has to skate miles, to play that much. I can't find stats for his ice time, but my guess is 24-25 minutes. He was on the PP and PK (both good things), but one pundit pointed to his point totals and said it was because he played so much. No one said that about Bedard, who also was not on a good team (but not as bad as Spokane). But back to his ice time. Suzuki is a good example because he was in a similar situation in juniour. He was by far the best player on his team, the coach counted on him and he played a lot and put up a lot of points. One of the knocks on Suzuki was his own compete level. It makes a ton of sense to me, if you have any brains at all as a player, that if you're on the ice a lot, you can't go all out. If you do, you're off the ice in 40 seconds, or you're gassed and other guys are going around you like a carousel. So you have to pace yourself. Suzuki did it and Catton did it...and still produced a lot of points. I won't go into his skill level and attributes cause we'll be here all day. 

On the size issue, Catton is just 18. Players grow after age 18, or at least some do. Florian Xhekaj did. I'd like to know more about how tall and heavy Catton's parents and grandparents are. It would be an indicator of where he's going to end up at, at age 23.

Someone posted this stat on Twitter about Catton. Only 4 players this century have scored 50 goals and 115 points in their draft years. They are Sidney Crosby, Connor Bedard , Patrick Kane and Berkly Catton. I find that stat hard to ignore. Catton seems to me to be the guy who everyone asks years later, "How'd he last until xxxx?" Someone is going to get a gift.

It seems to be a consensus however, that Catton is not going in the 5 range, but later. I was scheming to come up with a plan for the #5 pick in case Demidov isn't there at 5. One thought was to trade with Buffalo and move down. We give Buffalo the #5 pick and say Barron or another D prospect or Barron AND that other D prospect and in return we get Buffalo's #11 pick and JJ Peterka. Peterka is 22 years old (right in our wheelhouse), put up 28-22-50 numbers in 82 games and looked really dangerous in games I saw of him late last year. He's an awesome skater and is very involved. He also was +10 on a team that had a lot of minuses. He's easily at top 6 guy, a left shooting RW. Buffalo needs Dmen and they get an immediate player in Barron and the opportunity to draft a really good RHD at #5. The have several guys coming up to replace Peterka (Savoie, Kulich, Quinn, etc) so losing Peterka, while not pleasant, is palatable, especially to get an elite RHD, or some other player they may love. From Montreal's standpoint, we fill that top 6 forward role and still have a pick at #11 which might end up being Catton, or Yakemchuk or Sennecke or Buium or Brandsegg-Nygard or Eiserman, or, or. There will still be plenty of good players at 11. I just really like Peterka from what I saw last season. Anyone else notice him?

[Willie Dog]

May 30, 2024 12:08:04 GMT -5 seventeen said:

May 29, 2024 23:36:36 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Berkley Catton oozes skill. Don't know why he is ranked so low.

It's my belief there are two reasons involved. The first is size. He is 5'11", 170 and everyone seems infatuated with size these days. The other point is that I think some scouts are questioning his involvement level. My analysis of those same things leads me to different conclusions.

Something important to remember in Catton's game is his team. The Spokane Chiefs were a dog's breakfast of a team. Catton supposedly played 30 minutes a game because the coach needed to use him to have a hope of winning. Firstly, no forward averages 30 minutes a game. It's insane to expect a centre, who has to skate miles, to play that much. I can't find stats for his ice time, but my guess is 24-25 minutes. He was on the PP and PK (both good things), but one pundit pointed to his point totals and said it was because he played so much. No one said that about Bedard, who also was not on a good team (but not as bad as Spokane). But back to his ice time. Suzuki is a good example because he was in a similar situation in juniour. He was by far the best player on his team, the coach counted on him and he played a lot and put up a lot of points. One of the knocks on Suzuki was his own compete level. It makes a ton of sense to me, if you have any brains at all as a player, that if you're on the ice a lot, you can't go all out. If you do, you're off the ice in 40 seconds, or you're gassed and other guys are going around you like a carousel. So you have to pace yourself. Suzuki did it and Catton did it...and still produced a lot of points. I won't go into his skill level and attributes cause we'll be here all day. 

On the size issue, Catton is just 18. Players grow after age 18, or at least some do. Florian Xhekaj did. I'd like to know more about how tall and heavy Catton's parents and grandparents are. It would be an indicator of where he's going to end up at, at age 23.

Someone posted this stat on Twitter about Catton. Only 4 players in CHL history have scored 50 goals and 110 points in their draft years. I can't recall one of them, but the other three were Sidney Crosby, Connor Bedard and Berkly Catton. the missing one was in the same class as Crosby and Bedard. I find that stat hard to ignore. Catton seems to me to be the guy who everyone asks years later, "How'd he last until xxxx?" Someone is going to get a gift.

It seems to be a consensus however, that Catton is not going in the 5 range, but later. I was scheming to come up with a plan for the #5 pick in case Demidov isn't there at 5. One thought was to trade with Buffalo and move down. We give Buffalo the #5 pick and say Barron or another D prospect or Barron AND that other D prospect and in return we get Buffalo's #11 pick and JJ Peterka. Peterka is 22 years old (right in our wheelhouse), put up 28-22-50 numbers in 82 games and looked really dangerous in games I saw of him late last year. He's an awesome skater and is very involved. He also was +10 on a team that had a lot of minuses. He's easily at top 6 guy, a left shooting RW. Buffalo needs Dmen and they get an immediate player in Barron and the opportunity to draft a really good RHD at #5. The have several guys coming up to replace Peterka (Savoie, Kulich, Quinn, etc) so losing Peterka, while not pleasant, is palatable, especially to get an elite RHD, or some other player they may love. From Montreal's standpoint, we fill that top 6 forward role and still have a pick at #11 which might end up being Catton, or Yakemchuk or Sennecke or Buium or Brandsegg-Nygard or Eiserman, or, or. There will still be plenty of good players at 11. I just really like Peterka from what I saw last season. Anyone else notice him?

Good post, interesting proposal... the challenge will be if Lindstrom is there at 5, and HuGo et al., checked out his medical and are ok with it, do they pass on him and move down?

Further to seventeen post, I looked at some info online and found the following

5. Montreal Canadiens - Iginla has met with the Habs multiple times (Hockey Writers site)
6. Utah - looking for a D man
7. Ottawa Senators - D man
8. Seattle Kraken - might take iginla, want a forward LW most likely
9. Calgary Flames - want a forward would love Iginla
10. New Jersey Devils - want a forward catton, helenius eiserman
11. Buffalo Sabres

[folatre]

Assuming Demidov and Levshunov are gone, I would be fine with Iglina, Catton, or Lindstrom with the medical green light. I believe all three project comfortably as top six forwards and they seem to be great kids who are coachable.

I think Catton's smaller frame makes him the least likely to end up hearing his name called at #5.

Now that Waddell is the man in Columbus, are there any discernable trends that one can surmise about his first round picks over his many years as a GM in the league? I am too lazy to go back to the Thrashers, but honestly in Carolina his six drafts do not yield any super obvious clues. In two of the draft, the Canes did not have a first rounder; in another two they picked very late in the first. He picked Svechnikov with the only super high pick he had. He smartly grabbed Jarvis at #13. Waddell picked a lot of Russians in the early rounds while GM in Carolina. It is known that Dundon 'mandated' Carolina use first round picks on forwards rather than d-man. So maybe now that he is not having to deal with that type of owner, he may be happy to grab a d-man.

[Cranky]

Trading down looks like heavens answer to get our Choclate Cheesecake and eat it too.

But...how do we know the player we want is going to be there. Isn't better to take the BPA and then make a deal for that Strawberry Cheese cake AND Choclate Cheese cake?

If we draft Levshunov maybe there is a deal for Paterka and that magic beans like Sennekke at 11.

I live by the simple motto, trust no one, question everything, change underwear every day. Two certainly apply to making a deal with questionable outcomes.

BPA baby...and then cakes.

[seventeen]

Here's some more fuel, or at least kindling, for the fire. There was a tweet from someone whose neighbour or friends are season ticket holders for the Medecine Hat Tigers. They told this tweeter that Lindstrom is a bit of a whiner if he doesn't get his way. I have no idea how credulous that source is, but I would like to think that the interview process should tell the Habs braintrust something about all these kids. You don't want flawed characters any more than you want flawed physicals.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

May 29, 2024 23:36:36 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Berkley Catton oozes skill. Don't know why he is ranked so low.

Agree. Catton or Eiserman work for me. Catton has skating and all rounded game while Eiserman is a sniper. We don’t need 20 fancy dangling goals a year as much as 40 dirty goals per season.

[folatre]

Montreal needs at least a 20 goal boost (compared to 2023-24) to even get near the playoff bubble. And to be a capable of getting in and doing any damage, the Habs would probably need more like a 40 goal improvement.

So, for sure, goals by whatever means they get created and potted are the bottom line issue. Of course, no one Montreal drafts this summer is going to help rectify that issue in 2024-25. For 2024-25, the 'answers' will have to be found internally in the room.

But getting back to the draft class kids with serious offensive talent, assuming Demidov is gone, I would not be disappointed with Lindstrom, Catton, Iginla or even Eiserman.

[Cranky]

Dach can easily give us those 20 goals and once he's in the picture and takes some pressure off the first line, CC and Slaf say hello to another 20-30 more.

[folatre]

Oh yeah, for sure, Dach can get 20 if he is healthy for a full season. And it would not shock me if Caufield scored five or ten more than he did this season. But it is a team sport. And the 'replacement' players who picked up those minutes for Dach in 2023-24 (Evans, for example) probably do not score at the same clip when they slot back down to where they were supposed to be.

Likewise, Montreal had an insane number of goals from d-man in 2023-24, given how aside from Matheson no one really jumps out as an offensive d-man. The Habs had 48 goals from the d-corps, which was tied for fourth in the league. Unfortunately, the reality is a regression to the mean seems likely.

[seventeen]

the key is health. If Dach is healthy, and the rest of the top 6 lose only a combined 20 games to injury, those needed goals are achievable.

One point we are understating, perhaps, is the added offense a good transitional group can give us. Transition is a strength of both Hutson and Reinbacher. We know that Mailloux can add offense from the back. That doesn't necessarily mean more goals from the back end, but definitely more assists. If Savard is playing 13 minutes instead of 20, that's a lot less time spent in our end, ergo, more goals for, fewer goals against. If
Anderson is playing 10 minutes instead of 15, those are additional productive situations for us.