Anaheim Looking For Guhle or Reinbacher - Basu

[Disgruntled70sHab]

... in a deal for Trevor Zegras ...

[folatre]

Interesting, thanks Dis.

No doubt, Zegras is a talented 23 year old forward with a couple of seasons with productivity in the 60-65 point range, so it is not surprising that Anaheim would set the ask price really high.

But the elephant in the corner of the room is why has Verbeek been shopping Zegras for the last 9-12 months. Okay, maybe Verbeek would simply argue hey I love this kid but I have Carlsson, McTavish, and Gauthier as my main future weapons up front so I have to move someone. Well, maybe that is plausible but the story (and the truth) is probably deeper than that. Verbeek was already tiring of Zegras' lackadaisical defensive and neutral zone play in 2022-23, and the contract negotiations he had with the agent and Zegras in the summer of 2023 were apparently quite contentious. Thus no matter what Verbeek is saying on the phone with other GMs about how much the Ducks love the kid and it is just numbers game up front looking to the future, my BS radar is on full throttle with lights and sirens.

Remember, Verbeek started souring on Zegras before the Carlsson pick and the Gauthier trade; hence, in part at least that explains why he picked the Swede and traded for Gauthier. In other words, Anaheim may want the world to believe they think the world of Zegras' potential, but the reality is that I believe they simply do not.

For starters, nothing in his two-way game suggests that he can play first line center on a competitive team. And ironically, with over 200 games in the league, I am not even sure the offensive side of his game screams big time difference maker.

Why would Hughes trade Guhle, who is already a top four lock, or Reinbacher (seven years of club control) for a kid who would basically slot in as a second line winger and likely dig in hardcore on his next contract negotiation?

[Tankdriver]

All good points.

I do go back to the Kirby Dach trade. No one was thinking Romanov could be traded and look what happened. We got a pick that we then flipped for Dach

Is Guehle the equivalent to that? He is kind of in the same situation as Romanov, closing in on RFA status, and a couple seasons in the league. It would be a tough pill to swallow but you need to give to get.

I would rather deal Barron, Struble or Harris with our late first but can't see that happening.

[Willie Dog]

I worry Zegras is an opera singer (mememe)... even with Cole on the team...

For Guhle or Reinbacher we can get a 1st line forward because they are top pairing D men.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

[folatre]

For sure, it is not a secret that Verbeek is sour about the fact that Zegras would not sign long term in the $7.5 range. Now it is pretty obvious Verbeek wants nothing to do with another contract negotiation with the kid down the line. And given the fact that Anaheim's GM does not care for the player's lack of progress in developing a two-way game, it just seems as though the Ducks really want to move on ASAP.

Other GMs, if they are smart, should have their radar picking up on this vibe.

If Montreal had a first rounder in the 11-15 range for this draft, then I would indeed offer that pick plus Harris or Barron for Zegras. But why would Montreal give up a young two-way top-four d-man who is still five seasons away from UFA or a kid picked fifth overall last summer (so obviously Hughes sees Reinbacher as a near lock to be a top four stalwart)?

Hockey is debatable. And I suppose it all depends on how clubs assess Zegras' future. If some GM believes he is still just a young kid who is willing to commit to mastering the defensive rigors of NHL hockey while having the upside to be a play driving 80-90 point difference maker, then obviously that GM would not hesitate to give up the fifth overall pick or Kaiden Guhle.

[IamCanadiens]

There's lots of teams sniffing around on Zegras. No doubt Hughes will kick tires but will have no desire in entering the bidding war Verbeek is trying to create. Ditto Carolina with Necas. That said, it appears Hughes is trying to use the abundance of blueliners to obtain secondary scoring. Gotta give something to get something but I don't think Guhle or Reinbacher are guys he's keen on trading. I see him dangling Mailloux. The old problem child swap or at least perceived problem child. The other thing he'll be considering is the next salary for Zegras. Is Zegras likely to try maxing out his contract or accepting a more moderate salary to help build a strong team team? Unless Zegras fits his vision I don't see it happening. Curious to see who exits and who enters.

[folatre]

In some ways it is almost worse that Zegras has two years left on his deal rather than, say, only one. Because Hughes would be potentially flying half-blind into a storm since Montreal would not be able to talk long-term contract at the time the trade would be consummated. My fear is that what if he is just a 65 point winger who does not care to develop defensively and avoids physicality in general, yet in summer 2025 the organization gets dragged into a soap opera where Zegras will not move off his 8x8.5 demand just at the moment the Habs are about to take a step forward in the standings?

I would rather go big on a talented kid with lots of runway before free agency or make a deal on someone who is only one year away and thus the trade does not go forward unless Montreal and the player agree to a win-win extension.

[PTH]

I have to say, I've come to wonder if Hughes might see Guhle as expendable, considering the number of LD prospects/young players we have. If a high-end LD is available at #5, why not move Guhle for Zegras (or another higher end young forward) and draft the D of the future ? It will make next season a bit rougher, but long-term the pain would be worth the gain.

[seventeen]

Elliotte Friedman mentioned in 32 Thought that he feels there are a large number of defensemen who are going to be very well paid this summer. What I took from this is that the demand for dmen or at least good quality or potentially good quality dmen is rising fast.

And considering the consequences of that increased demand, any team with a surplus of such players, especially cost controlled ones (cough, cough) will be in an excellent negotiating position.

For that reason, I don’t think Hughes will be in a rush to move anyone. Their value is only going up and any additions to a deal will have really good value.

[Cranky]

Z is not a pillar of the team, he's the cherry that is delicious, but never filling or sustaining.

I wouldn't mind Zegras for the 26th plus spare defenseman, but not a 5th or our core. If we lose Guhle, I like to hear that we relieved Philly of a few of their young top 6 or Fantilly/Carlsson level player.

Z is never going to be a 1C and as 2C will be questionable in a cup grind out run.

He gives me more talented Ribiero vibes.

[Cranky]

Jun 8, 2024 18:48:27 GMT -5 folatre said:

For sure, it is not a secret that Verbeek is sour about the fact that Zegras would not sign long term in the $7.5 range. Now it is pretty obvious Verbeek wants nothing to do with another contract negotiation with the kid down the line. And given the fact that Anaheim's GM does not care for the player's lack of progress in developing a two-way game, it just seems as though the Ducks really want to move on ASAP.

Other GMs, if they are smart, should have their radar picking up on this vibe.

If Montreal had a first rounder in the 11-15 range for this draft, then I would indeed offer that pick plus Harris or Barron for Zegras. But why would Montreal give up a young two-way top-four d-man who is still five seasons away from UFA or a kid picked fifth overall last summer (so obviously Hughes sees Reinbacher as a near lock to be a top four stalwart)?

Hockey is debatable. And I suppose it all depends on how clubs assess Zegras' future. If some GM believes he is still just a young kid who is willing to commit to mastering the defensive rigors of NHL hockey while having the upside to be a play driving 80-90 point difference maker, then obviously that GM would not hesitate to give up the fifth overall pick or Kaiden Guhle.

Verbeek was relativly small but had a tough, nasty, hard core playing style. I doubt Z is the kind of player he wants to build on.

Don't be suprised if we put X, 26th and something extra to make him look good, Z would be wearing Hab colour's. Something like X, Beck and 26th.

I really like cherries but I love meat and potatoes...

[Willie Dog]

Jun 9, 2024 23:14:48 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Jun 8, 2024 18:48:27 GMT -5 folatre said:

For sure, it is not a secret that Verbeek is sour about the fact that Zegras would not sign long term in the $7.5 range. Now it is pretty obvious Verbeek wants nothing to do with another contract negotiation with the kid down the line. And given the fact that Anaheim's GM does not care for the player's lack of progress in developing a two-way game, it just seems as though the Ducks really want to move on ASAP.

Other GMs, if they are smart, should have their radar picking up on this vibe.

If Montreal had a first rounder in the 11-15 range for this draft, then I would indeed offer that pick plus Harris or Barron for Zegras. But why would Montreal give up a young two-way top-four d-man who is still five seasons away from UFA or a kid picked fifth overall last summer (so obviously Hughes sees Reinbacher as a near lock to be a top four stalwart)?

Hockey is debatable. And I suppose it all depends on how clubs assess Zegras' future. If some GM believes he is still just a young kid who is willing to commit to mastering the defensive rigors of NHL hockey while having the upside to be a play driving 80-90 point difference maker, then obviously that GM would not hesitate to give up the fifth overall pick or Kaiden Guhle.

Verbeek was relativly small but had a tough, nasty, hard core playing style. I doubt Z is the kind of player he wants to build on.

Don't be suprised if we put X, 26th and something extra to make him look good, Z would be wearing Hab colour's. Something like X, Beck and 26th.

I really like cherries but I love meat and potatoes...

Really? I think you're poking the bear because X and Beck are for me untouchable... X is a unicorn and Beck elevates his game when the chips are down, don't think I've ever seen Zegras ever elevate his game except when doing those stupid michigans.

[Andrew]

Remind me, what's our track record when trading high-quality young blueliners for help on offense? If the Habs do entertain such a move then they'd better be sure they're not getting another Drouin. For me there are too many question marks with Zegras to warrant such a move.

[Cranky]

Jun 10, 2024 7:47:00 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

Jun 9, 2024 23:14:48 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Verbeek was relativly small but had a tough, nasty, hard core playing style. I doubt Z is the kind of player he wants to build on.

Don't be suprised if we put X, 26th and something extra to make him look good, Z would be wearing Hab colour's. Something like X, Beck and 26th.

I really like cherries but I love meat and potatoes...

Really? I think you're poking the bear because X and Beck are for me untouchable... X is a unicorn and Beck elevates his game when the chips are down, don't think I've ever seen Zegras ever elevate his game except when doing those stupid michigans.

That was suppose to come out as sarcasm but i didn't make it clear enough.

I don't know how Beck will turn out but if he is indeed our 3C, 40-50 point bulldog and X, I would rather trade Hughes. Or tar and feather him.

I don't know what to make of Z...and it's dropping. He's too talented but he may also be another 60 point prima donna with PLDonkey vibes about his effort. He certainly didn't shine in the worlds where on paper, he was one of the best players, particularly the low pain level games, yet he had 2 points TWO POINTS. PLDonkey had 9 points, but then, Bedard had a broken back carrying him.

Z...ok, but at a price that wont get him and I'm good with that. 26th and spare LHD, ok, NOTHING more.

[Skilly]

If all Zegras is going to cost is Guhle, then you do it. Guhle has just as many question marks as Zegras, such as, being injured 7 times since 2022

[seventeen]

Jun 10, 2024 14:21:42 GMT -5 Skilly said:

If all Zegras is going to cost is Guhle, then you do it. Guhle has just as many question marks as Zegras, such as, being injured 7 times since 2022

I'll take my chances with Guhle.

[folatre]

Nothing big is going to happen until Montreal knows who steps into the organization as the fifth overall pick.

Regarding trades, no one on the roster (Suzuki and Slafkovsky are pretty close though) or prospect pool is untouchable. But for me moving a young top four d-man like Guhle who the club controls for five more seasons has to be a slam dunk trade. First, it has to be a clear offensive difference-maker who likewise buys into the concept of team hockey. Second, the player's contractual status cannot be a ticking time bomb for the Habs. I would prefer to acquire a player still on his ELC (or just finished as it was in the cases of Dach and Newhook), which means Hughes gets to negotiate the all important 'second' NHL contract.

[Cranky]

Guhle is future A and if someone wants him in a trade, it has to be pretty big return. Z is not close to that value.

Guhle is worth a 1st or 2nd OA.

Z on the other hand is worth around 7-10

Massive difference on any draft.

[Andrew]

Basu talked about this rumor on this week's Basu and Godin Notebook podcast. He was amused that a comment of his was taken out of context. What he'd said was that "If I'm Verbeek I'm asking for Guhle or Reinbacher as return for Zegras from the Habs". He doesn't claim to have any insider knowledge about talks between the Habs and Ducks.

[seventeen]

Jun 11, 2024 10:15:45 GMT -5 Andrew said:

Basu talked about this rumor on this week's Basu and Godin Notebook podcast. He was amused that a comment of his was taken out of context. What he'd said was that "If I'm Verbeek I'm asking for Guhle or Reinbacher as return for Zegras from the Habs". He doesn't claim to have any insider knowledge about talks between the Habs and Ducks.

Basu is right and Verbeek still isn't getting Guhle.

[Cranky]

At least Basu is honest. I listen to his podcast and it's a reasonable, non reactive segment.

Going back in history and reality of "insider" information. If you have it, you can't share it. If any talking head says they have it, chances are because the deal is already done or some agent/GM is using them to spread misinformation. NO serious GM is going to divulge info to a guy he can't trust to keep his mouth shut. This I know as a fact if some of you remember the Molson Man days.

Think of the damage loose lips can make. It can and will disrupt players lives for no reason other then to satisfy the ego of the information holder. Or click of a talking head.

Anywho...I can see this speculation as being true, but the price is relatively high which makes the trade for the player relatively risky. Sure, it's pure hockey porn to imagine Hutson and Z on overtime, but let's be real, if Z is not part of the Habs foundation, it will cost us in a lost year or two.

[folatre]

Andrew, thanks for this clarification.

Yes, I am sure Anaheim is asking a high price. All things being equal, a club who has a talented player under contract for two years should not be desperate to move him (i.e. asking price will not come down). However, maybe it is just me, but I get the sense that everything about Zegras over the last 12 months has irritated the heck out of Verbeek and thus he may strongly prefer to wash his hands of the situation as soon as possible. In other words, the ask over the summer may not be exactly the same ask in September.

[seventeen]

Jun 11, 2024 17:55:11 GMT -5 folatre said:

Andrew, thanks for this clarification.

Yes, I am sure Anaheim is asking a high price. All things being equal, a club who has a talented player under contract for two years should not be desperate to move him (i.e. asking price will not come down). However, maybe it is just me, but I get the sense that everything about Zegras over the last 12 months has irritated the heck out of Verbeek and thus he may strongly prefer to wash his hands of the situation as soon as possible. In other words, the ask over the summer may not be exactly the same ask in September.

If no GM's are responding to Verbeek or are countering with much less than Verbeek wants, the message eventually gets through that you either keep Zegras and suck up what you don't like about him, or trade him for what you can get. As you say, that's more likely to happen in September than July, after Verbeek's annoyance goes past 'simmer'.

[Polarice]

Didn't want to start a new thread so I'll just use this one.

Had a conversation last night with someone and they were telling me that Montreal is trying to acquire both Zegras and Necas. The feeling right now is that both players would fit nicely with the Habs "current" line up and that it would advance their timeline drastically.

It was also mentioned that they have some interest in Laine, however, they would have to move a lot of salary the other way.

That was pretty much the discussion. I'll add more when I get a chance.

[jkr]

Of those 3 Necas interests me thd most. The one article I did find about this rumor suggested the asking price is Xhekaj.

I'm not liking what I am reading about Zegras' lack of committment to a two way game & his upcoming contract negotiations give me pause.

As for Laine- he has 2 years left on a deal that pays him more than 8 million per year & he is in the player assistance program right now. And this is the 2nd time he has asked for a move. Too many red flags.

[Polarice]

Jun 14, 2024 12:55:13 GMT -5 jkr said:

Of those 3 Necas interests me thd most. The one article I did find about this rumor suggested the asking price is Xhekaj.

I'm not liking what I am reading about Zegras' lack of committment to a two way game & his upcoming contract negotiations give me pause.

As for Laine- he has 2 years left on a deal that pays him more than 8 million per year & he is in the player assistance program right now. And this is the 2nd time he has asked for a move. Too many red flags.

Xhekaj is not going anywhere....they love him.

I didn't get a whole lot of info, he was heading to the Oiler game so we only chatted a few minutes, he did text me a cool pic he took at the game. I'll probably be texting or chatting with him this weekend.

They do have interest in Laine though. They seem willing to take a chance if the deal is right. They are also looking at getting rid of Prices contract, apparently they have been contacted by a team looking to add payroll, so that will free up 10 million.

Next time we chat I will update everyone. He knows I post stuff here and is good with it.

[Cranky]

Laine is the wrong lane to take. Even if they take back Anderson, we still have a 3 million dollar hole.

Z...i keep saying he's a potential negotiation nightmare, someone else on our board called contract talks are a ticking time bomb. Either way, nyet.

Necas? I wont stick my nec out either way. It depends on the cost.

I rather get a couple of 60 point grit, lunch pail wingers then an 80 point fluffy scorer.

[IamCanadiens]

Jun 14, 2024 14:18:01 GMT -5 Polarice said:

They are also looking at getting rid of Prices contract, apparently they have been contacted by a team looking to add payroll, so that will free up 10 million.

Next time we chat I will update everyone. He knows I post stuff here and is good with it.

SJ maybe? They need to pick up salary to reach the minimum.

[folatre]

I am sure Tulsky does not want to be perceived losing this first trade as an GM in the league. But I think reality is going to set in regarding Necas. Carolina has a lot of guys up for contracts and only so much cap money to distribute. The way Necas and the club are not seeing eye to eye on a lot of things, it would seem almost impossible that Tulsky is going to find a long-term solution that would placate the player. And letting arbitration settle the matter for the short-term is probably a losing proposition from Carolina's perspective because when one looks at the player's numbers, he is getting $6 million in arbitration every day of the week. -- Therefore, the bluster coming from the Canes front office notwithstanding, I believe that unless Carolina is willing to lock him long-term (8 x 7.5), then they are simply going to have to trade him for whatever the best offer is. I could see a team like Detroit (assuming they can agree with Necas' camp on a long-term deal) getting the player for something along the lines of the 15th overall, Berggren, and Stoll ($1.5 million retained). Is that a great haul? No, of course not. But I have a feeling that is basically the kind of offers that are coming in -- a nice pick, a nice prospect, and a serviceable NHL depth player.