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Post by habsorbed on Aug 4, 2024 11:35:21 GMT -5
I was at the rink this afternoon with a couple of other dads and the kids were breaking in brand new skates, so we were just having a summer hot stove session. The rolling topics eventually got onto the subject of a stealth trade target for the Habs and Mercer seemed like an interesting candidate. We all agreed that there was no way New Jersey and Montreal are logical trade partners now because the Devils have a plenty of excellent young d-men and a nice balance with good well paid vets. So obviously they would not need the type of assets Montreal has in abundance given the riches the Habs have on the future blue line. That is when we started flipping the biscuit around and thinking about okay then it has to be a three team deal, so then what makes sense is triangulating in a three team deal. I probably tossed out a Habs-friendly proposal or two and then backed off, and started to get realistic. Basically we finished a couple of cold pops and figured out the parameters of something that could satisfy all parties involved. Montreal: Mercer, Salmononsson Winnipeg: Reinbacher, Harris or Habs 2025 third New Jersey: McGroarty I get the concept of giving something to get something but I just can't see anything like this happening for 3 reasons beyond what has already been mentioned. First, we would be trading away a RHD which is not an area of strength. Trading a LHD would make more sense. Secondly, Reinbacher was drafted for his long term potential and his is our primary candidate for our future 1st pair RHD (dare to dream). He has only had a taste of North American hockey and his development is about to take off. He may never reach the ceiling that was projected but a high floor is a pretty safe bet. And finally he was drafted by this group whereas others were not. Regardless, a few of our young D will likely go but watching this glut of talent develop is pretty cool and the problem of diminishing prospect value is so much better than not having that problem. I agree IaC. In my mind Lane, Reinbacher and Mailloux are untouchables right now. Mailloux mught be moved out as he is not a HuGo pick and he has some "baggage". All 3 are developing nicely and still on track to meet our dreams. I would just assume give up a 2025 first rounder than any of those 3. |
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Post by Cranky on Aug 4, 2024 13:30:06 GMT -5
SOME fans are ready to throw Mailmam under the bus.
Unless X or Guhle show a hidden a massive well of offensive potential, Mailman has the size, demeanor and mentality to be our 20-60 No1 offensive defenseman.
We keep hoping that Hutson can shimy and shake while wondering if he's going to get wiped out in the playoffs. In fact, we don't even know if he will make it. Mailman is exact opposite.
6'3" and 225 pounds. Third overall in AHL defenseman in scoring. AHL allstar. Elite shot. Skates with the best. Will drop them with anyone.
What else do you want?
His "sins"? I don't give a flying banana what he did as a stupid kid. I'm not going to hold him to a standard that I never met.
I'm pinning a lot of hope that he's our Hedman of our future because you need players like him to win CUPS
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 4, 2024 14:55:54 GMT -5
SOME fans are ready to throw Mailmam under the bus. Unless X or Guhle show a hidden a massive well of offensive potential, Mailman has the size, demeanor and mentality to be our 20-60 No1 offensive defenseman. We keep hoping that Hutson can shimy and shake while wondering if he's going to get wiped out in the playoffs. In fact, we don't even know if he will make it. Mailman is exact opposite. 6'3" and 225 pounds. Third overall in AHL defenseman in scoring. AHL allstar. Elite shot. Skates with the best. Will drop them with anyone. What else do you want? His "sins"? I don't give a flying banana what he did as a stupid kid. I'm not going to hold him to a standard that I never met. I'm pinning a lot of hope that he's our Hedman of our future because you need players like him to win CUPS Bottom line in 2 years Guhle-Reinbacher Hutson-Mailloux X-?? |
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Post by folatre on Aug 4, 2024 15:39:45 GMT -5
Mailloux seems like a project in terms of reads and processing the game, but I think that is because he basically lost two years of OHL development, so essentially he has played far less hockey than his peers. Having said that, I thought his growth last season was exceptional and my forecast is that Mailloux is coming on like a freight train. I feel confident that he will be a top four d-man.
Cranky, regarding Mercer, I really have no idea why his numbers dropped last season. Same way it is hard to understand why exactly Beniers dropped from 57 points to 37. Just spitballing, Mercer only got half as many power play points as the year before; the Devils were lousy; Hughes missed 20 games due to injury and Meier missed around 15 and they are his most common linemates. I still contend it is rather impressive for a kid to have 64 goals in the NHL on his ELC and before he turns age 23.
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Post by Cranky on Aug 4, 2024 15:52:08 GMT -5
SOME fans are ready to throw Mailmam under the bus. Unless X or Guhle show a hidden a massive well of offensive potential, Mailman has the size, demeanor and mentality to be our 20-60 No1 offensive defenseman. We keep hoping that Hutson can shimy and shake while wondering if he's going to get wiped out in the playoffs. In fact, we don't even know if he will make it. Mailman is exact opposite. 6'3" and 225 pounds. Third overall in AHL defenseman in scoring. AHL allstar. Elite shot. Skates with the best. Will drop them with anyone. What else do you want? His "sins"? I don't give a flying banana what he did as a stupid kid. I'm not going to hold him to a standard that I never met. I'm pinning a lot of hope that he's our Hedman of our future because you need players like him to win CUPS Bottom line in 2 years Guhle-Reinbacher Hutson-Mailloux X-?? It's unlikely Mailman will make a defensive partner to Hutson. More like....Guhle/Mailman and Hutson/Rein. I hope Guhle discovers his next level offense because you always need a cleanup man to a high offense defenseman. EDIT...In a perfect Cranky world, X and Mailman form a two headed beast from hell, Hutson/Rein next and Guhle/xxx last. X has a hell of a shot. That combo may take a couple of seasons to mature, but the Gods of Mount Olympus, they will be the beasts of Hades. |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 4, 2024 17:23:53 GMT -5
Cranky, that is what I just laid out there. Reinbacher goes out the door in the three way trade and the Habs get Mercer. Sure I am asking for an additional something since the Habs are filling a huge area of organizational need for Winnipeg and Reinbacher was the fifth overall last summer. Hey obviously I get it that it is disconcerting for Habs fans to see the prospect apple cart upended where a kid like Reinbacher is suddenly traded. But that is the reality that it would take to acquire a young top six piece like Mercer. I think when people hear Dawson Mercer they immediately think of the WJC player. He has dipped since then. I think we can do better than Dawson Baker (that's his nickname back home) in a trade. He numbers aren't they much better than Newhook's. Would you trade Reinbacher for Newhook? |
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Post by folatre on Aug 4, 2024 18:36:51 GMT -5
Except they are better than Newhook's. Mercer: .26 goals per game; .528 points per game. Newhook: .192 goals per game; .463 points per game. And the disparity in the playoffs is actually larger.
Not long ago, I read a New York Times article by Scott Wheeler and he re-drafted the 2020 class. According to Wheeler, Mercer is now ahead of quite a few forwards who went earlier than him back then. Hockey is debatable. But history (in post-lockout era) would say Mercer is wildly outperforming what most 18th overall picks accomplish on their ELC.
Look, I do not want to trade Reinbacher because I doubt the kid's potential to be a steady top-four guy for a long time. It is just that when people are clamoring for management to get a top six winger in the age cohort of the Habs' core, reality is unforgiving. Guhle or Reinbacher are not going to land the Habs Lafreniere, Jarvis, or McTavish.
So maybe the moral of the story for this summer is to stay patient, hang onto all your best young d-men, and see how assembling a second line goes next summer.
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Post by seventeen on Aug 4, 2024 19:11:14 GMT -5
Look, I do not want to trade Reinbacher because I doubt the kid's potential to be a steady top-four guy for a long time. It is just that when people are clamoring for management to get a top six winger in the age cohort of the Habs' core, reality is unforgiving. Guhle or Reinbacher are not going to land the Habs Lafreniere, Jarvis, or McTavish. So maybe the moral of the story for this summer is to stay patient, hang onto all your best young d-men, and see how assembling a second line goes next summer. I second your point about the players above. Lafreniere, Jarvis and McTavish are not being traded by their teams. We're not trading Suzuki, Caufield or Demidov, period. Why would we when we'd have to replace those guys? I'm not in Hugo's head, but I see the core of this team, which management will hold onto until their dying breaths, as Guhle, Xhekaj, Reinbacher, Hutson and probably Mailloux on defense. Struble is also held in high regard but could be traded in the right deal. Harris is a quality guy but everyone seems to be trading him. Engstom is an unknown. None of the goalies are untouchable. They might form part of the core, but the big hope is Fowler, of course. Up front, you can use a permanent marker on Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Demidov, and Dach (assuming a clean bill of health). Forming the corona on that core and while not indispensable, very likely to be on the team in 3 years, are Newhook, Roy, Beck and Hage. Since we all can count to 10 (I have all my fingers), you will note that this number adds up to 9, meaning there are at least 3 more spots and probably 5 required to have a starting 12 and a couple of spares. The remaining guys could include Florian, Koivu, Ericksson, Kapinen, Tuch and Rohrer. There may be more added from our next two drafts (McKenna  ). I haven't included Mesar or Farrell, as I really think HuGo are limiting the number of small players on the team. Caufield is it and we have a few guys around the 5'11" size, though they carry some weight ('thick' is the term used, though I don't like it because it suggest dullardness). Stout, Stocky, heavy, anything but Thick. It's tough, but a fact of life. |
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Post by folatre on Aug 4, 2024 19:51:34 GMT -5
I concur on almost every point, seventeen. And management may well feel adamant about holding onto all the top young d-man. For me it is not the end of the world to trade one of the four prized young blueliners because someone else (Xhekaj, Struble, or Engstrom) will probably exceed expectations and grow into the role. But to give up a top four kid on the back end, Montreal needs a sure fire top six forward who fits in both age-wise and contractually, not an easy match to find eh.
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Post by Tankdriver on Aug 4, 2024 20:29:51 GMT -5
So it sounds like no one wants to trade:
Reinbacher
Hutson
Mailleux
Guhle
So I guess that means we tank another year and draft another top 6 forward? If that's the case, then it is fine. However next summer the purse strings better be opened and we sign one of the potential big UFA'S out there to really push this team forward.
Need to give up to get something.
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Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2024 0:54:22 GMT -5
So it sounds like no one wants to trade: Reinbacher Hutson Mailleux Guhle So I guess that means we tank another year and draft another top 6 forward? If that's the case, then it is fine. However next summer the purse strings better be opened and we sign one of the potential big UFA'S out there to really push this team forward. Need to give up to get something. Those are 4 highly prized Dmen. For a reason. Whoever is coming back in a trade for one of those guys better be a difference maker. We've been starved for so long for talent that now that we have a seeming surplus of talent (Potential, I agree), we've become emotionally attached to these guys and it would feel a bit like the Subban trade if we lost one of them. Not quite as bad, of course, but it would engender a feeling akin to that one. |
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Post by Cranky on Aug 5, 2024 10:09:21 GMT -5
Good thing that these days i wear a helmet when i go to the can because a thought just hit me...
Which team we hate as much as the Laffs? And the player we hated most?
X has a high chance to be our....Chara.
He's got the size, disposition and attitude.
Plus unlike the Booins, we got a pile of talent besides X.
Drop the damn puck already....
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 5, 2024 10:23:18 GMT -5
So it sounds like no one wants to trade: Reinbacher Hutson Mailleux Guhle So I guess that means we tank another year and draft another top 6 forward? If that's the case, then it is fine. However next summer the purse strings better be opened and we sign one of the potential big UFA'S out there to really push this team forward. Need to give up to get something. I would add X as an untouchable, he wouldn't get a top 6 back that's for sure, but he brings something on D that we don't have and many many teams covet toughness, skill and the desire to protect your teammates. Like when he went after Reaves. |
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Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2024 12:40:42 GMT -5
HuGo have known Arber's value for quite some time. It's why all trade requests from other teams for Xjhekaj are quickly snuffed. I can see him working into our top 4 and even if he doesn't make that grade, he will be an excellent 3rd pairing guy. He's our hydrogen bomb cruise missile. The mere threat of using him will protect all our other players. It's difficult to put a value on that, but it's high. HuGo also know that he can't be our only deterrent, which is why there's a certain amount of grit in several of our other players. Dach showed some skill in that facet of the game and even Slaf seemed willing to get involved, though we don't want him doing much of that. It's why Florian was drafted as high as he was.
John Ferguson was brought onto the team in the 63-64 season. The following year they began a string of Stanley Cup victories. Coincidence? Hardly. Terry Harper was not going to scare anyone. Fergie was the nuclear deterrent. You don't step on Superman's cape and you don't mess around with John.
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Post by Cranky on Aug 5, 2024 13:08:07 GMT -5
We were playing Chicago and Bobby Hull was coming back from a broken jaw.
Fergy picked a figt with Hull and rebroke his jaw.
THAT is nuclear deterrence.
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Post by Skilly on Aug 5, 2024 14:25:30 GMT -5
So it sounds like no one wants to trade: Reinbacher Hutson Mailleux Guhle So I guess that means we tank another year and draft another top 6 forward? If that's the case, then it is fine. However next summer the purse strings better be opened and we sign one of the potential big UFA'S out there to really push this team forward. Need to give up to get something. That's what most said last year. Meanwhile, we sit in the pumpkin patch and wait for the great pumpkin |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 5, 2024 14:57:49 GMT -5
Except they are better than Newhook's. Mercer: .26 goals per game; .528 points per game. Newhook: .192 goals per game; .463 points per game. And the disparity in the playoffs is actually larger. Not long ago, I read a New York Times article by Scott Wheeler and he re-drafted the 2020 class. According to Wheeler, Mercer is now ahead of quite a few forwards who went earlier than him back then. Hockey is debatable. But history (in post-lockout era) would say Mercer is wildly outperforming what most 18th overall picks accomplish on their ELC. Look, I do not want to trade Reinbacher because I doubt the kid's potential to be a steady top-four guy for a long time. It is just that when people are clamoring for management to get a top six winger in the age cohort of the Habs' core, reality is unforgiving. Guhle or Reinbacher are not going to land the Habs Lafreniere, Jarvis, or McTavish. So maybe the moral of the story for this summer is to stay patient, hang onto all your best young d-men, and see how assembling a second line goes next summer. Firstly, I said they aren't that much better. Sure Mercer's total numbers are better, but when you dive into the numbers, they really aren't THAT much better. Mercer has 31 more points than Newhook, in 32 more games played. About a point per game. But who has been closer to the point per game players recently? In Newhook's last 55 games, he has 34 points (0.618) In Newhook's last 32 games, he has 21 points (0.656) In Newhook's last 15 games he has 12 points (0.800) In Mercer's last 55 games, he has 22 points ((0.400) In Mercer's last 32 games he has 9 points (0.281) In Mercer's last 15 games he has 5 points (0.333) The gap is closing. And when you factor in who Newhook was playing with. Sure I know the argument is going to be "look who Mercer is playing with", but New Jersey was suppose to contend, so they were suppose to be overall better and deeper than MTL. Also, Newhook was coming off an injury (remember that was the excuse given to Caufield ALL year) and still produced. Listen, I like Mercer. But I do find it a little concerning that he was healthy all year and couldn't find ways to produce, and we are comfortable it was because of who his linemates were (or weren't). Strange how some of our own players don't get that same treatment though ... I mean, just imagine what kind of points Newhook would have put up with Dach, or if given decent wingers, right? |
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Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2024 15:57:54 GMT -5
All I can say is that Mercer is a really good player who will hit his stride soon. I would love to have both he and Newhook on my team, any day.
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Post by Cranky on Aug 5, 2024 17:58:52 GMT -5
I love to have an entire line of Mercers, but at what price?
Are we ready to give up on Guhle? Rein? Because that is the entry fee.
Best to develop what we have and give up whatever it takes in future draft choices then to take apart what is a very promising future on defense.
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Post by folatre on Aug 5, 2024 18:28:54 GMT -5
Skilly, I like Newhook. Everyone here does. But there is year to year variability in any given player's career. I mean, Matty Beniers dropped from 57 points to 37 points despite playing almost a full minute more per game than the year before. Are we going to act like Beniers is no longer a young stud high end forward since he had a quiet season?
Anyway, to revisit what I said: Mercer has not signed because the Devils to not have room to do anything longer term; I have never heard New Jersey is interested in trading him; I was not proposing Reinbacher for Mercer 1 for 1.
Basically my point is you cannot add a young winger with a track record of scoring goals by giving up a late first round pick, a serviceable NHL d-man, and a B level prospect. If management wants to hold onto Guhle, Reinbacher, Mailloux, and Hutson, then fans should accept that the club will have to shop in the distressed asset category of the marketplace. Hughes could try to get it done with Columbus for Laine or with the Rangers for Kakko.
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Post by seventeen on Aug 5, 2024 18:58:36 GMT -5
I love to have an entire line of Mercers, but at what price? Are we ready to give up on Guhle? Rein? Because that is the entry fee. Best to develop what we have and give up whatever it takes in future draft choices then to take apart what is a very promising future on defense. Sorry, I thought NJ was just giving him to us. I didn't give any thought to what the price would be because the Devils appreciate Mercer as well and aren't trading him to anyone. I just meant I'd love to have him on my team, that's all. |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 6, 2024 16:15:13 GMT -5
Skilly, I like Newhook. Everyone here does. But there is year to year variability in any given player's career. I mean, Matty Beniers dropped from 57 points to 37 points despite playing almost a full minute more per game than the year before. Are we going to act like Beniers is no longer a young stud high end forward since he had a quiet season? Anyway, to revisit what I said: Mercer has not signed because the Devils to not have room to do anything longer term; I have never heard New Jersey is interested in trading him; I was not proposing Reinbacher for Mercer 1 for 1. Basically my point is you cannot add a young winger with a track record of scoring goals by giving up a late first round pick, a serviceable NHL d-man, and a B level prospect. If management wants to hold onto Guhle, Reinbacher, Mailloux, and Hutson, then fans should accept that the club will have to shop in the distressed asset category of the marketplace. Hughes could try to get it done with Columbus for Laine or with the Rangers for Kakko. I get your point, and it's a good point My point is, that would could be throwing the baby out with the bath water acquiring Mercer, when he would basically be a third liner on this team. Giving up those quality assets, the return HAS to be top six. We can't be risking paying players 6-7 million to play on the third line in 2 years |
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Post by folatre on Aug 6, 2024 18:22:57 GMT -5
The Devils have a more talented forward group than the Habs and Mercer is top six there. We all agree Demidov will be top six from day one. But who is the other guy you have mind?
Hage? I really liked the pick but I am not labeling him a can't miss top six NHLer. That is not taking a swipe at him because that is generally how I feel about most kids taken in the middle of the first round. Roy? He is another kid I like a lot and I think he can play top six with the right mates but if Montreal had someone who is a more proficient goal scorer than him, Roy would be fine on a strong two-way third line.
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Post by Cranky on Aug 6, 2024 20:48:30 GMT -5
I'm going to repeat myself because to be honest, I've got online Tourettes...you don't dig a hole to fill a hole.
We have the GREATEST pipeline of defenseman we ever had in my very long lifetime. We have a chance to possibly having the BEST defense in the NHL for a decade, so we want to dismantle to fill a hole. Which, after getting Demigod, is not much of a hole to begin with.
Kalyiev, Kakko, Frost, probably a pile of kids that are short of their potential, maybe there is a flawed diamond in there. THAT is what high quality scouting and smart GMs will find for us.
If we can develop Beck, Kapanen, Roy, one of our tough guys, SIGN a top 6, we can put the shovels away.
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 7, 2024 6:44:17 GMT -5
I'm going to repeat myself because to be honest, I've got online Tourettes...you don't dig a hole to fill a hole. We have the GREATEST pipeline of defenseman we ever had in my very long lifetime. We have a chance to possibly having the BEST defense in the NHL for a decade, so we want to dismantle to fill a hole. Which, after getting Demigod, is not much of a hole to begin with. Kalyiev, Kakko, Frost, probably a pile of kids that are short of their potential, maybe there is a flawed diamond in there. THAT is what high quality scouting and smart GMs will find for us. If we can develop Beck, Kapanen, Roy, one of our tough guys, SIGN a top 6, we can put the shovels away. I agree but if we can get a motivated Laine for 2 years and the cost is Dvo, Barron/Harris and some 2nd or 3rd round picks, why not, any thought of touching the untouchables is out of the question AFAIC Untouchables Guhle, Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux, X and maybe Struble... if he played the right side then definitely |
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Post by Cranky on Aug 7, 2024 11:15:28 GMT -5
I'm going to repeat myself because to be honest, I've got online Tourettes...you don't dig a hole to fill a hole. We have the GREATEST pipeline of defenseman we ever had in my very long lifetime. We have a chance to possibly having the BEST defense in the NHL for a decade, so we want to dismantle to fill a hole. Which, after getting Demigod, is not much of a hole to begin with. Kalyiev, Kakko, Frost, probably a pile of kids that are short of their potential, maybe there is a flawed diamond in there. THAT is what high quality scouting and smart GMs will find for us. If we can develop Beck, Kapanen, Roy, one of our tough guys, SIGN a top 6, we can put the shovels away. I agree but if we can get a motivated Laine for 2 years and the cost is Dvo, Barron/Harris and some 2nd or 3rd round picks, why not, any thought of touching the untouchables is out of the question AFAIC Untouchables Guhle, Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux, X and maybe Struble... if he played the right side then definitely I never argued agaist trading the excess or futures. I'm against trading what high end we have for what is not so great need right now. |
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Post by seventeen on Aug 7, 2024 13:12:50 GMT -5
I never argued agaist trading the excess or futures. I'm against trading what high end we have for what is not so great need right now. Me too, but I'm also weighing the benefit of learning to win. I don't think there would be a lot of opposition if we lost a bit of the strength we have on D, to improve the situation up front....in the long term. I'm talking of guys like McGroarty or Zegras, younger players who fit the timeline of our core group. Laine is not that guy, but it's only a 2 year term and he would help the team win a few more games. He's not going to be on the team when we really compete (at a lower price, who knows?), but he may help to lose fewer games and slowly move up the standings, something that has value. The caveat, of course, is the cost. How much will he help the team and does that 'value' cost us a reasonable amount? If we lose Struble, it's not worth it IMO, because I think he'd add as much value. He hasn't show the physicality he had in college yet and as his confidence grows, I think his offensive game will take off. We have seen flashes of it already. Anyway, it often comes down to cost and your own confidence that Laine has worked out his prior issues. |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 7, 2024 13:59:34 GMT -5
The Devils have a more talented forward group than the Habs and Mercer is top six there. We all agree Demidov will be top six from day one. But who is the other guy you have mind? Hage? I really liked the pick but I am not labeling him a can't miss top six NHLer. That is not taking a swipe at him because that is generally how I feel about most kids taken in the middle of the first round. Roy? He is another kid I like a lot and I think he can play top six with the right mates but if Montreal had someone who is a more proficient goal scorer than him, Roy would be fine on a strong two-way third line. Right now, our second line in 2025-26 is projecting to be Demidov-Dach-Newhook. Unless we acquire better than Newhook. Right now, Newhook is equal if not better than Mercer. If Newhook stays healthy this year and produces at the same rate he did last year, that is a 50+ point season. And as Cranky said, we'd have wasted assets to provide what we already have. I realize your arguement is to put Newhook on the third line. But that would be wasting his potential. |
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Post by Skilly on Aug 7, 2024 14:02:07 GMT -5
I hear lots of talk about our bash brothers on defense ... Guhle-Xhekaj-Mailloux
But why is no one talking about this guy??
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Post by jkr on Aug 7, 2024 16:22:19 GMT -5
Sounds like a bit of a loose cannon but he would be the Habs' loose cannon.😀
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). I haven't included Mesar or Farrell, as I really think HuGo are limiting the number of small players on the team. Caufield is it and we have a few guys around the 5'11" size, though they carry some weight ('thick' is the term used, though I don't like it because it suggest dullardness). Stout, Stocky, heavy, anything but Thick. It's tough, but a fact of life. 