Timmins and Minnesota high schoolers

[skunk]

If you include Savard in the equation, you're going back about 10 years in terms of drafting. The average is about 1.5 NHL players per draft (per team), from what I understand. So that only makes them average at best.

Besides the numbers are WAY off. The top 3 defensemen are Markov, Hamrlik, and Komisarek. Of those 3, only Komisarek was drafted by any of the three you mentioned. As for the top 6 forwards, you certainly have to include Kovalev and Koivu among them, and neither were drafted by the Three Amigos.

Redo and resubmit please.

[cigarviper]

skunk said:

If you include Savard in the equation, you're going back about 10 years in terms of drafting. The average is about 1.5 NHL players per draft (per team), from what I understand. So that only makes them average at best.

Besides the numbers are WAY off. The top 3 defensemen are Markov, Hamrlik, and Komisarek. Of those 3, only Komisarek was drafted by any of the three you mentioned. As for the top 6 forwards, you certainly have to include Kovalev and Koivu among them, and neither were drafted by the Three Amigos.

Redo and resubmit please.

So, perhaps the correct statement would have been "drafted by the Habs". I would think O'Byrne would have to be included in the top 4 don't you?

[habmeister]

actually looking back at our drafts and players that are either with the club or are still potential nhlers it is way more than 1.5:

07: mcd, maxpac, subban, weber all potentials
06: fischer, maxwell, carle, white, valentenko, 3-4 potentials and 1-2 very likely
05: price, lats, sergei 3 nhlers, d'ago potential
04: chips, emelin, grabovski, streit 4 nhlers (yes chips and emelin are nhl quality and will have careers) wyman, stewart longshot but potential
03: andrei, lappy, o'byrne, halak 4nhlers; urquhart, locke, longshots
02: higgins nhler, ferland longshot (only 6 picks and only two in first 3 rounds)
01: komi, perezhogin, plekanec 3 nhlers, two of them studs, one left for russia; milroy longshot
00: hainsey, hossa 2nhlers
99: 0 nhlers (who ran this draft?)
98: ribs, beachemin, markov, ryder, 4 nhlers and you could argue all 4 high quality ( right skilly)
97: ward, guite, 2nhlers
96: garon, asham, clark 3nhlers

so since you can't count the last two drafts because of their ages from 96-05: 26 nhlers over 10 drafts, so 2.6 per draft, amazing!


detroit red wings 96-05: 9 nhlers (someone can correct me) but how about that quality!
vancouver canucks 96-05: 13 nhlers

fire timmins!

[cigarviper]

skunk said:

Bad combo. Fischer and McDonagh both way overrated for where they were taken in the draft. On the heels of duds like Brian Lee and Blake Wheeler.

Dumb.

We'll give you a third rounder for that crystal ball of yours, we just gave ours away.

[skunk]

Of the 7 defencemen on the U.S. WJC team, 4 were taken after Fischer in 2006, and the other 3 were taken after McDonagh in 2007. What does that tell you? It tells me they were both overrated for their draft positions. McDonagh has done absolutely nothing since the WJC, either.

[skunk]

Timmins only came along for the 2003 draft. His first two picks were Andrei Kostitsyn and Cory Urquhart. There are at least twenty better NHLers than Kostitsyn drafted after him, and probably about 200 better than Urquhart taken after him. The best player from that draft was probably the last player they took, Jaroslav Halak, in the 10th round or so. Urquhart was just traded for an undrafted free agent who was playing in the CHL, which is a step below the ECHL. He was drafted ahead of Patrice Bergeron while both were playing in the QMJHL, right under the nose of Timmins and Savard. I would have fired both of them for that alone.

[seventeen]

skunk said:

Of the 7 defencemen on the U.S. WJC team, 4 were taken after Fischer in 2006, and the other 3 were taken after McDonagh in 2007. What does that tell you? It tells me they were both overrated for their draft positions. McDonagh has done absolutely nothing since the WJC, either.

What it tells me is that I hope the US selection committee stays as is for the next 30 years, cause if they keep picking like they have, we're gonna keep creaming them. We owned them in the WJC this year in part because their defense was not up to par. Too bad one of their best was left behind in the US. ;D

[Patty Roy]

Well The Hockey News and their 21 polled NHL scouts thought enough of Ryan McDonaugh to rank him the 31st best drafted prospect in the world.

[Skilly]

cigarviper said:

I read today we had 16 players drafted by the Timmins/Savard/Gainey playing last night.

Specifically 5 of our top 6 forwards, 3 of our top 4 defensemen and both goalies. That's some seriously good drafting and developing. We're a few points out of pole position in the east and if we're not the youngest then one of the youngest teams in the league. The minor teams are healthy with prospects and we have some exciting talent in school. What's not to like?

Markov was drafted by Houle.
Saku was drafted by S. Savard
Ryder was drafted by Houle


Plekanec, Kosty, Higgins, Kosty (if you are not counting Ryder as a top six) = 4 out of top 6

But Lapierre, Chipchura, Grabovsky, Latendresse can be added to the list of Savard/Timmins picks.

Komi, O'Byrne are 2 out of the top 4 d-men drafted by them. Hamrlik was acquired by trade and Markov was drafted in 1998 when Houle was GM.

But you can add to the list Streit. Bouillon wasn't drafted, Gorges was aqcuired by trade, Brisebois was drafted by S. Savard.

Still good though. Hope the Minnesotans pan out, even though I wouldnt have drafted them.

[Skilly]

habmeister said:

98: ribs, beachemin, markov, ryder, 4 nhlers and you could argue all 4 high quality ( right skilly)

Correct my left coast friend ... I have absolutely nothing against Beauchemin, very fine player.

[skunk]

McDonagh doesn't have an outstanding quality. You would hope to get that with the #12 overall pick in a deep draft. Nick Petrecki, who I would have taken, has scored nearly as many points as an NCAA freshman, plus he is 6-3, 230 pounds, hits like a truck, and is a willing fighter. Colby Cohen has been more productive offensively, and he is bigger than McDonagh as well. Kevin Shattenkirk has been a lot more productive offensively, and he was selected for Team USA at the U20 over McDonagh. That'sjust the defensemen available when McDonagh was selected. No one expected Alexei Cherepanov to be on the board.

[jkr]

I am reading Gare Joyce's book - "Future Greats & Heartbreaks". He describes his inside look at the world of scouting from the view of teh Blue Jackets. he goes over the 2007 draft.

When he gets to #12 & McDonagh he mentions that Columbus probably would have taken him at #7 if Voracek had not been available. So it wasn't only the Habs that had him rated highly. The guy isn't even 19 yet (according to hockeydb.com). He's being written off already?

[jkr]

skunk said:

McDonagh doesn't have an outstanding quality. You would hope to get that with the #12 overall pick in a deep draft. Nick Petrecki, who I would have taken, has scored nearly as many points as an NCAA freshman, plus he is 6-3, 230 pounds, hits like a truck, and is a willing fighter. Colby Cohen has been more productive offensively, and he is bigger than McDonagh as well. Kevin Shattenkirk has been a lot more productive offensively, and he was selected for Team USA at the U20 over McDonagh. That'sjust the defensemen available when McDonagh was selected. No one expected Alexei Cherepanov to be on the board.

Skunk, have you seen these guys play or are you looking at stats?

[habmeister]

skunk said:

Timmins only came along for the 2003 draft. His first two picks were Andrei Kostitsyn and Cory Urquhart. There are at least twenty better NHLers than Kostitsyn drafted after him, and probably about 200 better than Urquhart taken after him. The best player from that draft was probably the last player they took, Jaroslav Halak, in the 10th round or so. Urquhart was just traded for an undrafted free agent who was playing in the CHL, which is a step below the ECHL. He was drafted ahead of Patrice Bergeron while both were playing in the QMJHL, right under the nose of Timmins and Savard. I would have fired both of them for that alone.

03 4 nhlers
04 4 nhlers
05 3 nhlers

06 and 07 too soon to tell.

his track record is exceptional, i feel like i'm wasting my time debating this.

[Skilly]

jkr said:

I am reading Gare Joyce's book - "Future Greats & Heartbreaks". He describes his inside look at the world of scouting from the view of teh Blue Jackets. he goes over the 2007 draft.

When he gets to #12 & McDonagh he mentions that Columbus probably would have taken him at #7 if Voracek had not been available. So it wasn't only the Habs that had him rated highly. The guy isn't even 19 yet (according to hockeydb.com). He's being written off already?

Sounds like a good book ... is it a good read?

[Skilly]

When you look at our drafts during the 90's ..... well it is hard to argue with the picks since 2001.

[roke]

skilly said:

jkr said:

I am reading Gare Joyce's book - "Future Greats & Heartbreaks". He describes his inside look at the world of scouting from the view of teh Blue Jackets. he goes over the 2007 draft.

When he gets to #12 & McDonagh he mentions that Columbus probably would have taken him at #7 if Voracek had not been available. So it wasn't only the Habs that had him rated highly. The guy isn't even 19 yet (according to hockeydb.com). He's being written off already?

Sounds like a good book ... is it a good read?

It's a terrific read Skilly. The first part of the book was my favorite as he had inside access to the Blue Jacket's during the 2007 draft and the leadup to it. I'd definitely reccomend it.

[skunk]

I've seen McDonagh play, and he plays like I described him, decent all round, but doesn't jump out at you in any way. No one is "writing these guys off" at 19, but the point is that it doesn't look like they were the best players available where they were drafted. That is what Timmins gets paid to do. Get the best available player at each draft spot.

[habmeister]

not necessarily the best player available, but the PROJECTED best player available. some players hit their peak at 19-20, others continue to improve immensely through their 20's. i'd rather have the one that is getting better every year, than the one that plateau's.

[jkr]

skunk said:

Timmins only came along for the 2003 draft. His first two picks were Andrei Kostitsyn and Cory Urquhart. There are at least twenty better NHLers than Kostitsyn drafted after him, and probably about 200 better than Urquhart taken after him. The best player from that draft was probably the last player they took, Jaroslav Halak, in the 10th round or so. Urquhart was just traded for an undrafted free agent who was playing in the CHL, which is a step below the ECHL. He was drafted ahead of Patrice Bergeron while both were playing in the QMJHL, right under the nose of Timmins and Savard. I would have fired both of them for that alone.

If there are 20 players in the NHL better than A. Kostitsysn from the 2003 draft please name them. Than it can be discussed. You can't just throw a number out there as if it's fact.

[jkr]

skilly said:

jkr said:

I am reading Gare Joyce's book - "Future Greats & Heartbreaks". He describes his inside look at the world of scouting from the view of teh Blue Jackets. he goes over the 2007 draft.

When he gets to #12 & McDonagh he mentions that Columbus probably would have taken him at #7 if Voracek had not been available. So it wasn't only the Habs that had him rated highly. The guy isn't even 19 yet (according to hockeydb.com). He's being written off already?

Sounds like a good book ... is it a good read?

I echo Roke's comments. Great insight into the life of a hockey scout.

Some players come off very poorly in the book. Steve Downie( big surprise), Phil Kessell and Ian White who comes off as a real a$$hole. He makes a small mention of Daniel Ryder - said he was overly influenced by Downie.

[skunk]

There are about 30 players taken after A. Kostitsyn in 2003 who have played more NHL games so far. As to whether all (or most) of them are "better" players than Kostitsyn is a matter of personal preference. I don't put much value on Kostitsyn because he is such a one dimensional player. As far as I can tell, he doesn't contribute much beyond offense on the power play. On or off the ice.

[Skilly]

skunk said:

There are about 30 players taken after A. Kostitsyn in 2003 who have played more NHL games so far. As to whether all (or most) of them are "better" players than Kostitsyn is a matter of personal preference. I don't put much value on Kostitsyn because he is such a one dimensional player. As far as I can tell, he doesn't contribute much beyond offense on the power play. On or off the ice.

Just because a player plays more, or before, does not mean it was a better pick. We have this discussion on this board every June, do you draft the best player available, the best player at a position you need, or the guy with the highest reward potential. In 2003, the powers that be tried to hit a homerun. The past three years it looked as if they struck out, but this year it looks to be a solid ground rule double (that could clear the fence).

30 player are better? Because they played more games? Well I would not choose Lee Stempniak over Kostitsyn. I went through the draft, and hindsight being what it is (you are using hindsight to criticize the pick) I would consider eight, maybe, as better than Kostitsyn. But that comes with a huge caveat, that being, some are different types of players and not a fair comparison.

The player drafted after Kostitsyn that I feel are either better or on par are:

1) Jeff Carter
2) Zach Parise
3) Ryan Getzlaf
4) MIke Richards
5) Corey Perry
6) Patrice Bergeon
7) Shea Weber
8) Patrick O'Sullivan

The rest are developing at a slower pace than Kostitsyn as far as I am concerned... sure they played more, but they haven't contributed more... Steve Bernier for example. He has played 164 games over 3 seasons, never cracked 40 points, never scored 20 goals .... Kosty did it in his first full season.

[jkr]

skunk said:

There are about 30 players taken after A. Kostitsyn in 2003 who have played more NHL games so far. As to whether all (or most) of them are "better" players than Kostitsyn is a matter of personal preference. I don't put much value on Kostitsyn because he is such a one dimensional player. As far as I can tell, he doesn't contribute much beyond offense on the power play. On or off the ice.

What's the "on or off the ice "statement about?

[skunk]

My top pick in 2003 was Dustin Brown, and I also liked Zach Parise. Both of them are much more valuable than Kostitsyn. In 2004, I liked Wojtek Wolski and Mike Green. Both are much better players than Chipchura. In 2005, I liked Anze Kopitar, Guillaume Latendresse, Ondrej Pavalec (I never thought the Habs would use their top pick on a goalie). In 2006, I liked Ty Wishart where they were drafting, but also liked Mathieu Carle who they got later. In 2007, I was really high on Max Pacioretty, and also liked Nick Petrecki, Colby Cohen, Aaron Palushaj. I thought the bargains were in the USHL last draft, and I think that is proving true so far.

My problem with Timmins is that if I can see these things sitting behind a computer in my spare time, why can't he? It is his full time occupation, and I assume he earns pretty good coin for doing it. As I said previously, he should have been fired based on his first two draft picks alone. Terrible.

[jkr]

skunk said:

My problem with Timmins is that if I can see these things sitting behind a computer in my spare time, why can't he? It is his full time occupation, and I assume he earns pretty good coin for doing it. As I said previously, he should have been fired based on his first two draft picks alone. Terrible.

That says a lot to me right there skunk.

You are looking at this part time from your PC. Every scout sees these players, in person, many, many times. They make their decisons based on what they have seen first hand. It's easy for us to second guess from the comfort of our homes.

Timmins & every scout in the business has actually seen these guys play at the arenas, not just read stats from a computer screen. You can't make decisions on players that way.

[skunk]

That is what I'm saying, WHY does MY WAY work BETTER? Consistently.

Do you honestly think the Habs are better with A. Kostitsyn, Olivier Latendresse (Cory Urquhart), Kyle Chipchura, instead of Dustin Brown, Dan Fritsche, Wojtek Wolski? The first three are the players Timmins drafted, the last three the players I would have taken in their place. That is for 2003 and 2004. In 2005, my top two picks would have been Anze Kopitar and a tough choice between Guillaume Latendresse and Ondrej Pavalec. In 2006, I would have taken Ty Wishart with the first pick, Mathieu Carle with the second. In 2007, I would have drafted Max Pacioretty and Nick Petrecki in no particular order, with Colby Cohen and Aaron Palushaj further down. We'll see how things unfold. From now on, I'm going to be sure to record all my picks so there is hard evidence.

[seventeen]

Hmmm...tonight at least, Andrei Kostitsyn outscored Zach Parise (who I also like) 1-0 and Carey Price played a small role in the Habs win.

Stats can help focus some things, but they also mask a lot. I'd take the physical viewing of a player any day....besides it's a lot more fun to go to a game than sit in front of a computer.

[seventeen]

skunk said:

From now on, I'm going to be sure to record all my picks so there is hard evidence.

Be sure to put it in a safe, under the custody of two other people who have the combination. So no one can tamper with your picks.

[jkr]

skunk said:

That is what I'm saying, WHY does MY WAY work BETTER? Consistently.

Do you honestly think the Habs are better with A. Kostitsyn, Olivier Latendresse (Cory Urquhart), Kyle Chipchura, instead of Dustin Brown, Dan Fritsche, Wojtek Wolski? The first three are the players Timmins drafted, the last three the players I would have taken in their place. That is for 2003 and 2004. In 2005, my top two picks would have been Anze Kopitar and a tough choice between Guillaume Latendresse and Ondrej Pavalec. In 2006, I would have taken Ty Wishart with the first pick, Mathieu Carle with the second. In 2007, I would have drafted Max Pacioretty and Nick Petrecki in no particular order, with Colby Cohen and Aaron Palushaj further down. We'll see how things unfold. From now on, I'm going to be sure to record all my picks so there is hard evidence.

You're right. You will have to record it because until you have hard evidence it only looks like hindsight.

However, don't you think that if this type of method worked that all teams would do it? I have heard that the Sabres use video scouting now but every other team wants to see a player & they want to see him multiple times. I am not sure why you seem to be ahead of the game right now but I imagine that over a period of time that you would have your share of clunkers.

Gotta go know & watch some hockey hightlights. Realax & enjoy for a bit. The Habs are in 1st place.