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Post by Skilly on Mar 4, 2008 8:09:06 GMT -5
From now on, I'm going to be sure to record all my picks so there is hard evidence. Or you can do like we all do ... write your picks down in our "Mock Draft Thread" we have every June. Some use it to see how many they get right (a little friendly pool - which I won last year (or did I come second  ) thank you very much using the statistical/team need approach) Its the best on the net ... and some *cough* BC *cough* like to go all out and show off  and pick 6 and 7 rounds deep for the Habs. He's pretty good. That way we all have the picks to see. |
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Post by BadCompany on Mar 4, 2008 12:57:04 GMT -5
Huh? Smooth skating, offensive defenseman, currently playing for the top ranked Minnetonka Skippers, in the Minnesota high school leagues. Slated to go in the bottom half of the first round. Like, you know, right around where we would be picking. Oh no they wouldn't!!  Okay, so I just happened to be in Minnesota, and I took in the high school sectional championships, which determines which teams go to the State Championships. As an aside, Minnesota High School hockey just rocks. Unbelievable atmosphere, probably better than a good 5-7 NHL teams. But I digress. Was not impressed with Gardiner. Granted, it was only one game, but I didn't even think he was the best player on his team, let alone one of the better players in the league, deserving of a first round pick. Again, extremely limited viewing, but not impressed. Jefferson Dahl, on the other hand... I don't know if Mr. Wisconsin Hockey is eligible for this year's draft, and he is a little on the small side, but HE dominated... |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Mar 4, 2008 14:39:43 GMT -5
Smooth skating, offensive defenseman, currently playing for the top ranked Minnetonka Skippers, in the Minnesota high school leagues. Slated to go in the bottom half of the first round. Like, you know, right around where we would be picking. Oh no they wouldn't!! Okay, so I just happened to be in Minnesota, and I took in the high school sectional championships, which determines which teams go to the State Championships. As an aside, Minnesota High School hockey just rocks. Unbelievable atmosphere, probably better than a good 5-7 NHL teams. But I digress. Was not impressed with Gardiner. Granted, it was only one game, but I didn't even think he was the best player on his team, let alone one of the better players in the league, deserving of a first round pick. Again, extremely limited viewing, but not impressed. Jefferson Dahl, on the other hand... I don't know if Mr. Wisconsin Hockey is eligible for this year's draft, and he is a little on the small side, but HE dominated... That's twice you've mentioned this guy, BC. Found some stuff on him here and there. Might try to find some video on him later. Cheers. |
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Post by skunk on Mar 8, 2008 23:39:31 GMT -5
Fischer and McDonagh have 9 and 7 WCHA points, respectively, this season, which is well down the list among defensemen in the league. Both would have to be categorized as huge underachievers in terms of their draft positions.
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Post by habmeister on Mar 9, 2008 4:11:01 GMT -5
Fischer and McDonagh have 9 and 7 WCHA points, respectively, this season, which is well down the list among defensemen in the league. Both would have to be categorized as huge underachievers in terms of their draft positions. most definetly, all that matters is the boxscores, and if they aren't putting up the assists or scoring then they're hugely underachieving. i started a new scouting service for the csb and iss and nhl and various teams, i analyze the boxscores and statistics of the chl and high school hockey and come up with very detailed draft lists come june. i'll be coming out with my list based exclusively on highly scientific statistical analysis very soon, look for it, i've already sold it to 3 different nhl teams for 5 figures. i'll share if with y'all for free just because i love you guys. btw colin long will go 3rd overall in this june's draft because he's leading the whl in scoring, forget about tyler ennis or jordan eberle, colin long has way more points so is way better. |
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Post by Skilly on Mar 9, 2008 8:52:32 GMT -5
Fischer and McDonagh have 9 and 7 WCHA points, respectively, this season, which is well down the list among defensemen in the league. Both would have to be categorized as huge underachievers in terms of their draft positions. most definetly, all that matters is the boxscores, and if they aren't putting up the assists or scoring then they're hugely underachieving. i started a new scouting service for the csb and iss and nhl and various teams, i analyze the boxscores and statistics of the chl and high school hockey and come up with very detailed draft lists come june. i'll be coming out with my list based exclusively on highly scientific statistical analysis very soon, look for it, i've already sold it to 3 different nhl teams for 5 figures. i'll share if with y'all for free just because i love you guys. btw colin long will go 3rd overall in this june's draft because he's leading the whl in scoring, forget about tyler ennis or jordan eberle, colin long has way more points so is way better. Granted, statistics aren't everything especially for third and fourth liners (an argument can be made for some second liners too)..... but they most definitely have more weight than what you think. Hockey is a game predicated on statistics. You can't win without scoring, a stat. If you can't score, you need a goalie who can stop everything, another stat. Show me any team in the history of hockey that won a game with just skating and puck possesion and hard work.... and remember, as soon as they score - its a stat. Now, all kidding aside ... for offensive players. Stats mean alot. How high would Sideny Crosby have been drafted if he was only putting up 30 points in the Q? All the great skating and passion and vision would have meant nothing. He would not have been drafted first. If highly touted offensive players to not put up the stats to justify their offensive potential, then they will fall pretty quickly. Where the trick comes into play, is guys putting up big point totals without the work, relying on talent and an inferior level to their ability. Someone like Danny Cleary. A potential star from his junior totals, but never really put the work into it .... in those scenarioes I agree with you, stats dont mean alot .... but when a team is looking for first line talent, they are going to look at his stat totals in juniors alot (unless injuries and stuff). |
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Post by jkr on Mar 9, 2008 10:05:49 GMT -5
most definetly, all that matters is the boxscores, and if they aren't putting up the assists or scoring then they're hugely underachieving. i started a new scouting service for the csb and iss and nhl and various teams, i analyze the boxscores and statistics of the chl and high school hockey and come up with very detailed draft lists come june. i'll be coming out with my list based exclusively on highly scientific statistical analysis very soon, look for it, i've already sold it to 3 different nhl teams for 5 figures. i'll share if with y'all for free just because i love you guys. btw colin long will go 3rd overall in this june's draft because he's leading the whl in scoring, forget about tyler ennis or jordan eberle, colin long has way more points so is way better. Granted, statistics aren't everything especially for third and fourth liners (an argument can be made for some second liners too)..... but they most definitely have more weight than what you think. Hockey is a game predicated on statistics. You can't win without scoring, a stat. If you can't score, you need a goalie who can stop everything, another stat. Show me any team in the history of hockey that one a game with just skating and puck possesion and hard work.... and remember, as soon as they score - its a stat. Now, all kidding aside ... for offensive players. Stats mean alot. How high would Sideny Crosby have been drafted if he was only putting up 30 points in the Q? All the great skating and passion and vision would have meant nothing. He would not have been drafted first. If highly touted offensive players to not put up the stats to justify their offensive potential, then they will fall pretty quickly. Where the trick comes into play, is guys putting up big point totals without the work, relying on talent and an inferior level to their ability. Someone like Danny Cleary. A potential star from his junior totals, but never really put the work into it .... in those scenarioes I agree with you, stats dont mean alot .... but when a team is looking for first line talent, they aren't going to look at look stat totals in juniors very much (unless injuries and stuff). But what about stats for D men? Their primary role is preventing scoring. I think that's more difficult to measure (other than plus/minus). Low point totals for a defensive prospect don't worry me as much as low point totals for a forward. You are right, stats aren't everything. They are a part of the player's story but not the whole part. Players need to be seen multiple times in many different situations - regular season, playoffs, various game situations etc. Teams need to interview them in order to get a feel for the personality of the player. If someone could sit in front of a computer screen & consistently pick winners, no team would have a scouting staff. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Mar 9, 2008 12:02:23 GMT -5
If someone could sit in front of a computer screen & consistently pick winners, no team would have a scouting staff. They would be Buffalo, who has abandoned real live scouts and replaced with video analysis to save some bucks to pay for a few more hot wings in the owner's box. Why not just consult us here on Habsrus? There are far more intangibles to a player these days. That is why Timmins and company go talk to parents, friends and coaches. It sure isn't to verify their stats or to make sure their weight and height are accurate. |
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Post by jkr on Mar 9, 2008 12:51:10 GMT -5
If someone could sit in front of a computer screen & consistently pick winners, no team would have a scouting staff. They would be Buffalo, who has abandoned real live scouts and replaced with video analysis to save some bucks to pay for a few more hot wings in the owner's box. Why not just consult us here on Habsrus? There are far more intangibles to a player these days. That is why Timmins and company go talk to parents, friends and coaches. It sure isn't to verify their stats or to make sure their weight and height are accurate. I heard that about the Sabres. All I can say about that is that at least they watch video. But even that doesn't come close to telling you the whole story. |
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Post by cigarviper on Mar 9, 2008 13:03:57 GMT -5
That is why Timmins and company go talk to parents, friends and coaches. It sure isn't to verify their stats or to make sure their weight and height are accurate. They're looking for Habs comforters and pillow cases. Signs they are true Habs fans not pretenders. I have mine on my bed, don't you? |
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Post by skunk on Mar 9, 2008 17:59:03 GMT -5
Well, maybe if Fischer and McDonagh put up stats befitting first round draft picks in the WCHA, their teams wouldn't be quite so mediocre this season. Maybe they would have been selected to Team USA for the WJC instead of all the 4th and 5th round picks who were. Did these two defensemen who came touted as being "not particularly big or physical, but posessing great puck skills" suddenly morph into shutdown defenders who aren't expected to provide any offense?
Ian Cole, who came with a defense first label, and was drafted after McDonagh, has scored more points as a freshman. Nick Petrecki who came with a similar label and was also taken later than McDonagh is rapidly overtaking him in point production. The guys who were touted for their skill level, like Shattenkirk and Cohen, are well ahead.
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Post by habmeister on Mar 9, 2008 18:39:20 GMT -5
well then maybe you can explain why last season the following 3 players were NOT on team Canada but are in the NHL right now:
milan lucic
devon setoguchi
david perron
making world junior teams and becoming dominant nhl players are not mutually exclusive, there are many great world junior players that get nothing more than a cup of java in the show.
time will tell, but i'd be betting against you if i could.
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Post by PTH on Mar 9, 2008 22:32:14 GMT -5
That says it all. Until a couple more years have gone by, who knows where these guys will end up. ----------- BTW: If a scout should be fired when he doesn't find the best player each and every time, should the Bruins' scout be fired ? He only picked Bergeron in the second round, after all. (they took Mark Stuart in the first round, with Kesler and Mike Richards going 2 and 3 slots afterwards....) |
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Post by habmeister on Mar 10, 2008 1:48:45 GMT -5
That says it all. Until a couple more years have gone by, who knows where these guys will end up. ----------- BTW: If a scout should be fired when he doesn't find the best player each and every time, should the Bruins' scout be fired ? He only picked Bergeron in the second round, after all. (they took Mark Stuart in the first round, with Kesler and Mike Richards going 2 and 3 slots afterwards....) no not at all pth. i'm not sure if you watch junior hockey, but when you're scouting and picking players you're entirely projecting where they will continue to progress in the future, nobody has the perfect crystal ball, so it's best to watch a player over many games and years to see where he was last year, last month, and where you think he will be next month and next year. there are so many factors that come into it, that you can't possibly pick the best player in each round. it's so subjective, different guys see different things and like different intangibles. personally i like either really high end skills, or good gritty/tough players that improve and work hard. you also have to see a player in high pressure situations, different game situations (ie. crunch time, playoff games, late in the game) to see which guys step up and thrive and which ones wilt. there are literally 100's of things to look for. a good example are the two kosty bros, totally different types of player, but two different scouts might each pick a different brother watching them now. you may also get word from the head scout or team to find highly skilled players regardless of size, i think the red wings use this philosophy quite a bit, especially in the new nhl. it will be very interesting to see where tyler ennis goes in the draft. great skills and hands but 5'9" and 160lbs whl.ca/stats/player.php?id=24386another smallish whl player that i like is jordan eberle 5'11" 170lbs not as small but slight build whl.ca/stats/player.php?id=24646 |
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Post by habmeister on Mar 18, 2008 20:42:58 GMT -5
Timmins is seriously overrating those Minnesota high schoolers, and it's an infatuation he better get over soon. ;D Have to be patient with Fischer. He is a big lanky guy who will take longer to reach his potential. Last season he was stuck down the list on a really deep Gopher defense, this season the whole team is underachieving. Fischer has just 6 points, but top ten drafted forwards Kyle Okposo and Blake Wheeler don't have many more with this year's team. I'm betting he steps up during the second half of this season, and really starts to dominate by next season. |
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) thank you very much using the statistical/team need approach)
and pick 6 and 7 rounds deep for the Habs. He's pretty good. That way we all have the picks to see.
