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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 12, 2016 9:51:23 GMT -5
The post-season Presser is over, so next up is the entry draft in Buffalo on June 24th and 25th.
A couple of key events precede the draft, namely the draft lottery on April 30th that will determine which of the bottom 14 teams will get a sniff at Matthews or the two Finns. The IIHF U18's start later this week and feature a few of the draft noteables, including a few that will be of interest to TT and his scouting crew. No doubt they will be setting up shop in Grand Forks, ND for the duration. The good news for draft and prospect junkies is that the event is being covered by TSN who will broadcast all of Canada's round robin games and the playoffs.
Who to watch?
Jakob Chychrun (Canada)
Tyson Jost (Canada)
Michael McLeod (Canada)
Pascal Laberge (Canada)
Dante Fabbro (Canada)
Logan Brown (USA) - still a bit miffed he picked the US over Canada
Clayton Keller (USA)
Kiefer Bellows (USA)
Mikhail Sergachev (Russia)
Linus Lindstrom (Sweden)
Jacob Moverare (Sweden)
And of course the Finns.
It is an interesting tourney for the Habs, since Jost, McLeod, Keller and Sergachev are all being talked about around the 9th draft spot. That could almost be the 9-12 draft pick list in a mock right now. Brown, Fabbro and Laberge are all likely mid to late first rounders and Chychrun is battling Juolevi as the top two defenders in this draft.
First TV game is CAN-DEN on Friday night on TSN. Tourney wraps up the following Sunday with the bronze and gold medal games.
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Post by blny on Apr 12, 2016 9:59:06 GMT -5
I think it really depends on where we end up. If they get #1, by some miracle, I think you choose Matthews. However, if you really want one of the Finns, and I really like them both, you could move down a spot and get something significant. If the pick is in the 4-5 range, you have to think Dubois is the target. If we end up picking where we are now - 7 to 9 - the Russian defender would be my pick. From what I've read he's got Emelin's physical play and size with more offense to his game.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 12, 2016 13:19:26 GMT -5
I think it really depends on where we end up. If they get #1, by some miracle, I think you choose Matthews. However, if you really want one of the Finns, and I really like them both, you could move down a spot and get something significant. If the pick is in the 4-5 range, you have to think Dubois is the target. If we end up picking where we are now - 7 to 9 - the Russian defender would be my pick. From what I've read he's got Emelin's physical play and size with more offense to his game. Sergachev definitely has the offensive skill set. He is still a bit raw in his own end, but that can be developed. The question mark is his consistency of effort. Bobby Mac tweeted today that some teams really like his upside, and he could go early. He may very well be gone by our pick. If that was the case, some one like Nylander would have dropped. It will be an interesting Friday assuming we stay put at 9th...even more fun if we move up to top three (see loto thread). |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 12, 2016 14:03:53 GMT -5
Everyone seems to have conceded the #1 spot to Matthews, but the two Finns are really lighting it up in the playoffs. Would it be a shock to see one of them move into that top spot? Laine scored a tying goal at 19:59 of the 3rd period the other night and highlights of a couple of his goals showed he has an NHL shot right now. He scored one goal from the left face-off circle where the puck was practically in his skates and certainly looked like it was too close to his body for him to even hit the net. That's what the goalie thought too, but Laine got his stick tucked in somehow and picked top corner glove side to score. There'd be very few NHL guys who could do that. Matthews had better be pretty darn good to be better than Laine.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 12, 2016 14:15:55 GMT -5
Everyone seems to have conceded the #1 spot to Matthews, but the two Finns are really lighting it up in the playoffs. Would it be a shock to see one of them move into that top spot? Laine scored a tying goal at 19:59 of the 3rd period the other night and highlights of a couple of his goals showed he has an NHL shot right now. He scored one goal from the left face-off circle where the puck was practically in his skates and certainly looked like it was too close to his body for him to even hit the net. That's what the goalie thought too, but Laine got his stick tucked in somehow and picked top corner glove side to score. There'd be very few NHL guys who could do that. Matthews had better be pretty darn good to be better than Laine. Can't argue with your top three. I really like Julien Gauthier despite his lack of assists. He skates well has a quick release and has the six four 225 frame that can't be taught. He scores from the paint a la Gallagher but with a big frame that screens the goalie. He can be taught to look for the open man. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 12, 2016 14:47:09 GMT -5
Can't argue with your top three. I really like Julien Gauthier despite his lack of assists. He skates well has a quick release and has the six four 225 frame that can't be taught. He scores from the paint a la Gallagher but with a big frame that screens the goalie. He can be taught to look for the open man. Gauthier does play a big power forward game and goes to the net with his size. He was in the discussion around where the Habs pick but has dropped a bit, I would guess mainly from a few others trending up a bit too. He brings a lot to the table with his hands and style of play, but some of the skilled centres like Jost and Keller are poised to showcase themselves at the U18's to make up for their lower exposure through the BCHL and USHL. Still lots to be decided by June. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 12, 2016 15:04:35 GMT -5
Everyone seems to have conceded the #1 spot to Matthews, but the two Finns are really lighting it up in the playoffs. Would it be a shock to see one of them move into that top spot? Laine scored a tying goal at 19:59 of the 3rd period the other night and highlights of a couple of his goals showed he has an NHL shot right now. He scored one goal from the left face-off circle where the puck was practically in his skates and certainly looked like it was too close to his body for him to even hit the net. That's what the goalie thought too, but Laine got his stick tucked in somehow and picked top corner glove side to score. There'd be very few NHL guys who could do that. Matthews had better be pretty darn good to be better than Laine. I think Liane has really closed the gap. Getting number two or even three with Puljujarvi is pretty darn special as well. |
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Post by Gogie on Apr 12, 2016 16:53:07 GMT -5
I think it really depends on where we end up. If they get #1, by some miracle, I think you choose Matthews. However, if you really want one of the Finns, and I really like them both, you could move down a spot and get something significant. If the pick is in the 4-5 range, you have to think Dubois is the target. If we end up picking where we are now - 7 to 9 - the Russian defender would be my pick. From what I've read he's got Emelin's physical play and size with more offense to his game. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Habs will have one of the first three picks (if the lottery gods are really smiling on them) or they will pick somewhere from 9th to 12th. I'm pretty sure it's impossible for them to get pick 4 through 8 unless they make a trade. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 12, 2016 19:23:20 GMT -5
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 12, 2016 20:03:11 GMT -5
I think it really depends on where we end up. If they get #1, by some miracle, I think you choose Matthews. However, if you really want one of the Finns, and I really like them both, you could move down a spot and get something significant. If the pick is in the 4-5 range, you have to think Dubois is the target. If we end up picking where we are now - 7 to 9 - the Russian defender would be my pick. From what I've read he's got Emelin's physical play and size with more offense to his game. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Habs will have one of the first three picks (if the lottery gods are really smiling on them) or they will pick somewhere from 9th to 12th. I'm pretty sure it's impossible for them to get pick 4 through 8 unless they make a trade. Yes, we can only pick 1,2,3....9....10,11,12. The first three occur if we win a lottery spot. The last three occur if 1, 2, or 3 teams behind us win a lottery spot and jump ahead of us. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 13, 2016 15:42:38 GMT -5
Team Canada's defense corps took a hit with highly touted draft prospect Jake Bean going home after a broken bone in a pre-tourney game. Some rankings have him sneaking into the top ten.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 16, 2016 9:25:55 GMT -5
CAN beat DEN 10-2 lead by Tyson Kyrou's four goals (a probable second rounder) and Tyson Jost's 2g 3a effort. The BCHL star continues to shine in the Team Canada jersey despite a broken bone in one hand. Cannot be hurting his chance to be a legitimate top ten pick. TT and Berg are watching. A skilled centre...
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Post by blny on Apr 16, 2016 10:14:36 GMT -5
 Only took 4 tries!  Six tries at tankathon.  |
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Post by Anardil1 on Apr 16, 2016 10:42:19 GMT -5
CAN beat DEN 10-2 lead by Tyson Kyrou's four goals (a probable second rounder) and Tyson Jost's 2g 3a effort. The BCHL star continues to shine in the Team Canada jersey despite a broken bone in one hand. Cannot be hurting his chance to be a legitimate top ten pick. TT and Berg are watching. A skilled centre... Jost certainly is very interesting option if the Habs stay at 9. I wouldn't frown if he was selected. He would add to the strength down the middle depth. I was also impressed by Kyrou and a little less by Laberge. I like them as options for the two second round picks. I was less impressed by the Canadian group of defensemen. Lastly, I know it was only one game, but McLeod is inching towards a NO DRAFT option. Many question his offensive upside, and this game justified those doubts. He has more games to prove otherwise. I hope to be able to see kids from other countries show their stuff. This is a great way to pass the time leading up to the lottery. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 23, 2016 16:36:05 GMT -5
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 23, 2016 16:38:34 GMT -5
Pretty good first semi at the U18 between the USA and Finland. Lots of great top end draft eligible kids in this game with Puljujarvi, Keller, Brown and Bellows on show. I expect Keller is big time in the discussion with the Habs first round pick. Pretty dynamic, albeit a bit smaller, centre.
Canada and Sweden up later tonight. Big time scorers Jost and Nylander will be leading their teams, both of whom are also in the mix for the Habs.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 25, 2016 11:29:35 GMT -5
Now that Dallas finally put away Minnesota, we have clarity around our second round pick that Buffalo sent us in the Gorges trade. Here are the Habs' picks this year (subject to lottery results and any possible trades):
1st round - 9th (subject to lottery results on Saturday)
2nd round - 39th
2nd round - 45th (MIN pick from BUF)
3rd round - 69th
4th round - 99th
5th round - 123rd (from VAN)
6th round - 159th
Montreal traded its own 5th and 7th round picks to Buffalo when trading for Mitchell and Flynn at last year's trade deadline.
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Post by blny on Apr 27, 2016 10:33:15 GMT -5
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 27, 2016 17:11:44 GMT -5
Very interesting to see Chychrun dropping down the ranks a bit. It is interesting how little love the defensemen are getting so far until around the 7th pick when there is a run on defenders. It will be interesting to see if this plays out in reality in June as it might very well mean the BPA for the Habs if they still pick at 9th is a blueliner. Of course given the severe lack of depth of LD and top end defenders overall, a BPA could also double and meet a team need. If this does play out as suggested, it will be interesting if the team will go with a defender or a talented centre like Jost or Keller, as it is often hard to compare players head to head who play such a different position. Of course, it the Habs luck out and get one of the top three lottery spots, the guess work does tend to disappear for the most part. Might as well go that route then...fingers crossed!! |
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Post by blny on Apr 27, 2016 18:57:39 GMT -5
I'm always leery of guys that fall leading up to the draft. If we pick in our current spot, I'm hopeful that Sergachev is there. I really like his combination of Emelin's physicality with more offensive ability. He's played in junior, so he's got a good idea of the grind. He's a LD. Skates very well. He's got the size, and he can dangle.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 27, 2016 20:25:49 GMT -5
Very interesting to see Chychrun dropping down the ranks a bit. It is interesting how little love the defensemen are getting so far until around the 7th pick when there is a run on defenders. It will be interesting to see if this plays out in reality in June as it might very well mean the BPA for the Habs if they still pick at 9th is a blueliner. Of course given the severe lack of depth of LD and top end defenders overall, a BPA could also double and meet a team need. If this does play out as suggested, it will be interesting if the team will go with a defender or a talented centre like Jost or Keller, as it is often hard to compare players head to head who play such a different position. Of course, it the Habs luck out and get one of the top three lottery spots, the guess work does tend to disappear for the most part. Might as well go that route then...fingers crossed!! Could be Berg makes a deal to move up in the draft ... he has the assets to do it with ... that said, I have a feeling Berg will just make his selection when it comes ... that's the cynic in me, I guess ... Cheers. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Apr 27, 2016 22:34:58 GMT -5
Very interesting to see Chychrun dropping down the ranks a bit. It is interesting how little love the defensemen are getting so far until around the 7th pick when there is a run on defenders. It will be interesting to see if this plays out in reality in June as it might very well mean the BPA for the Habs if they still pick at 9th is a blueliner. Of course given the severe lack of depth of LD and top end defenders overall, a BPA could also double and meet a team need. If this does play out as suggested, it will be interesting if the team will go with a defender or a talented centre like Jost or Keller, as it is often hard to compare players head to head who play such a different position. Of course, it the Habs luck out and get one of the top three lottery spots, the guess work does tend to disappear for the most part. Might as well go that route then...fingers crossed!! Could be Berg makes a deal to move up in the draft ... he has the assets to do it with ... that said, I have a feeling Berg will just make his selection when it comes ... that's the cynic in me, I guess ... Cheers. If they really want a guy and he is still available a few spots before they pick, I am sure they will try. He has had those types of chats in a number of his drafts. The only one that ended in a trade was when he swapped firsts and threw in a second to get Tinordi. The top ten to twelve are pretty decent prospects, so it will really come down to their personal preferences and projections, and who drops because other teams like another player better. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 27, 2016 23:07:51 GMT -5
He has had those types of chats in a number of his drafts. The only one that ended in a trade was when he swapped firsts and threw in a second to get Tinordi. The top ten to twelve are pretty decent prospects, so it will really come down to their personal preferences and projections, and who drops because other teams like another player better. That was Gauthier, was it not? Not to say that Berg hasn't had similar conversations. You have to really like a guy and have him fall further than expected (based on your list). Anyway, I prefer the simpler solution....get a lottery spot and pick one of the three guys. If we did win a spot, I wouldn't be surprised if we traded down to 4th and chose Dubois. I'd pick one of the Finns...they both really picked up their game in the playoffs and they're already playing against men, so it's easier to gauge their performance. |
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Post by BadCompany on Apr 28, 2016 9:08:45 GMT -5
I don't know how Bergevin and Timmins work it, but from my understanding it's usually the director of scouting who makes the call on trades involving purely draft picks. I was watching one of those draft day specials once, and they were showing (I think it was) Bobby Clarke on the phone; he turned to his head scout and said something like "they're offering their 4th and 5th for our 3rd" (or something like that). The scout looked at his list, frowned, and shook his head no. So Clarke refused the trade.
Which I guess makes sense. Timmins would be the expert right, so if he says it's worth it to move up to 4th or 5th, then it would and should be his call. Bergevin should have an understanding of why, and what Timmins is trying to do, but any good manager should know when to get out of their employee's way and let them do their job.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Apr 29, 2016 12:28:33 GMT -5
"Timmins has been with the Habs for 14 seasons now, and here's a look at his history of first-round picks:" (courtesy of CBC)2015 - Noah Juulsen - 26th overall - Defenceman 2014 - Nikita Sherbak - 26th overall - Forward 2013 - Michael McCarron - 25th overall - Forward 2012 - Alex Galchenyuk - 3rd overall - Forward 2011 - Nathan Beaulieu - 17th overall - Defenceman 2010 - Jarred Tinordi - 22nd overall - Defenceman 2009 - Louis Leblanc - 18th overall - Forward 2008 - No pick 2007 - Ryan McDonagh - 12th overall - Defenceman AND Max Pacioretty - 22nd overall - Forward 2006 - David Fischer - 20th overall - Defenceman 2005 - Carey Price - 5th overall - Goaltender 2004 - Kyle Chipchura - 18th overall - Forward 2003 - Andrei Kostitsyn - 10th overall - Forward |
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Apr 29, 2016 12:48:57 GMT -5
"Timmins has been with the Habs for 14 seasons now, and here's a look at his history of first-round picks:" (courtesy of CBC)2015 - Noah Juulsen - 26th overall - Defenceman 2014 - Nikita Sherbak - 26th overall - Forward 2013 - Michael McCarron - 25th overall - Forward 2012 - Alex Galchenyuk - 3rd overall - Forward 2011 - Nathan Beaulieu - 17th overall - Defenceman 2010 - Jarred Tinordi - 22nd overall - Defenceman 2009 - Louis Leblanc - 18th overall - Forward 2008 - No pick 2007 - Ryan McDonagh - 12th overall - Defenceman AND Max Pacioretty - 22nd overall - Forward 2006 - David Fischer - 20th overall - Defenceman 2005 - Carey Price - 5th overall - Goaltender 2004 - Kyle Chipchura - 18th overall - Forward 2003 - Andrei Kostitsyn - 10th overall - Forward FischerPrice Chipchura. I hadent realized that Price has been around that long. Still think of him as a kid. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 29, 2016 13:01:04 GMT -5
In the latest copy of Future Watch, Habs were rated 25th (or something like that). Usually they're higher than that.
Those earlier years, Dis, it's hard to know how much say Timmins himself had in the selections. For example, it seems to be well 'known' that Gainey made the call on Price. If so, did he do that from seeing him play himself, or from a strong recommendation from the entire scouting staff or one scout he really trusted? Who knows, other than Gainey himself. That would be a great question to ask him.
Gauthier was the GM who moved up to draft Tinordi. Same story there. What sources did he rely on to make his choice? I also think our ranking is a bit lower than it should be because of circumstances. McCarron is a big kid who typically needs more time to develop than smaller guys. Scherbak was hurt much of this year, though looked very good offensively when he returned. Juulsen just missed the cut for Team Canada (and in hindsight would have been a better choice than a couple of the guys who made it) and then had his point totals drop as his team lost a couple of top scorers and he plays for an extremely defensive minded coach (Kevin Constantine). We've also been drafting late in the draft the last 3 years. Having said that, I don't believe we have as strong a pipeline as we could. Maybe if Lehkonen and Reway turn into something, The Hockey News and I will be proven wrong.
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Post by BadCompany on Apr 29, 2016 13:50:57 GMT -5
"Timmins has been with the Habs for 14 seasons now, and here's a look at his history of first-round picks:" (courtesy of CBC)2015 - Noah Juulsen - 26th overall - Defenceman 2014 - Nikita Sherbak - 26th overall - Forward 2013 - Michael McCarron - 25th overall - Forward 2012 - Alex Galchenyuk - 3rd overall - Forward 2011 - Nathan Beaulieu - 17th overall - Defenceman 2010 - Jarred Tinordi - 22nd overall - Defenceman 2009 - Louis Leblanc - 18th overall - Forward 2008 - No pick 2007 - Ryan McDonagh - 12th overall - Defenceman AND Max Pacioretty - 22nd overall - Forward 2006 - David Fischer - 20th overall - Defenceman 2005 - Carey Price - 5th overall - Goaltender 2004 - Kyle Chipchura - 18th overall - Forward 2003 - Andrei Kostitsyn - 10th overall - Forward So breaking down the numbers from 2003 to 2012 (as I don't think it's fair to look at McCarron, Scherbak or Juulsen just yet): Total Picks: 10 Forwards: 5 Defensemen: 4 Goalies: 1 Busts: Three - Leblanc (18), Fischer (20), Tinordi (22) Above Average Players: Four - Galchenyuk (3), Price (5), McDonagh (12), Pacioretty (22) Average or Below Average Players: Three - Kostitsyin (10), Beaulieu* (17), Chipchura (18) * Still being determined of course. Generally, as you would expect, the higher the pick the better the player, with Kostitsyin and Pacioretty being the outliers. The three best picks came from three of the four highest picks Timmins has made, with Kostitsyin being the exception, and the three worst picks were also not coincidentally the three lowest picks he had, again with Pacioretty being the exception. If you list them in order of selection, highest to lowest, this seems fairly clear. 3. Galcheynuk
5. Price10. Kostitsyin12. McDonagh
17. Beaulieu
18. Chipchura
18. Leblanc
20. Fischer
22. Tinordi
22. PaciorettyI would imagine this probably matches every other team, more or less, and is pretty logical, really. Generally the higher you pick, the better your player will be, with exceptions on both ends. It's too small a sample size of course, but nonetheless if we stay around 9-12 (which is the lowest we can fall) we would seem to have a 75% of getting an above average player, with 3 of the 4 players taken in that range fitting that description. |
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Post by seventeen on Apr 29, 2016 15:17:50 GMT -5
Good visual, BC. It's common sense and follows probabilities well enough. So to stand out, a scouting staff has to pluck good players from the lower rounds, where the odds are a lot lower. I'll show some names, some of which haven't actually made the NHL, but are/were good prospects whose development was 'stunted' perhaps.
2012 - Charles Hudon, 5th round
2011 - Magnus Nygren 4th round, Darren Dietz 5th round, Daniel Pribyl 6th round
2010 - Brendan Gallagher 5th round
2009 - Forgettable
2008 - Forgettable
2007 - PK Subban 2nd round
2006 - Ryan White 2nd round
2005 - Sergei Kostitsyn 7th round
2004 - Alexei Emelin 3rd round, Mikhail Grabovski 5th round, Mark Streit 9th round
2003 - Maxim Lapierre 2nd round, Jaroslave Halak, 8th round
Still early on Hudon, but I think he'll be an NHL player, if not with the Habs. Dietz looked like he belongs in the league, again not a difference maker but a decent depth player. Daniel Pribyl was not signed by us, became a FA, and is or has signed a contract with Calgary after posting 16-29-45 numbers in 45 games in the Czech League. He's 23 years old. We did really well in 03-04 with 5 guys who are/were regular NHL players. The numbers and quality of the later draft picks have fallen off a bit, but Gallagher is a home run and Hudon may yet become a fixture on the Habs. Both 5th rounders. It would take a lot of research to figure out how many good players the average NHL team plucks out of these lower picks. I'd think the Habs are at least average at it and maybe a bit better. The scouting analysis can be distorted by bad development as well, so there's a lot of evaluation required when judging scouting.
One interesting note is that many of the Euro guys, Nygren Pribyl, Emelin, Grabovski, and Streit , all developed elsewhere in their formative years. That may be due simply to the player himself or patience on the part of the Habs to save costs and let them get better elsewhere. That also suggests a bit of lack of interest as they gave up control of development by allowing them to stay elsewhere. Much like Lehkonen and Reway. I'd think they have a lot of interest in Lehkonen, but it was easier to let him develop elsewhere in a good league and not be caught in a numbers game in the AHL.
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Post by BadCompany on Apr 29, 2016 20:46:22 GMT -5
It's too small a sample size of course, but nonetheless if we stay around 9-12 (which is the lowest we can fall) we would seem to have a 75% of getting an above average player, with 3 of the 4 players taken in that range fitting that description. I mis-wrote that. It should have been "1-12" giving us that 75%, representing the total range of picks we can get. We've only had two picks in the 9-12 range, Kostitsyin and McDonagh. Not that those percentages really mean anything of course. |
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