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Who’s the best shooter in the Canadiens’ prospect pool, at least the ones playing major junior hockey? What about passer, or puck mover?
If you’re intrigued by these questions, this is for you.
I’ve spent this season manually tracking data for hundreds of CHL games, including over a hundred games for the Canadiens’ nine prospects playing in the three Canadian major junior leagues.
Today, with an average of 12 games tracked per prospect, it’s time to share some results. The players tracked include a fine blend of some of the organization’s best and lesser-known prospects. I included their position, method of acquisition, and their ranking in my midseason prospect ranking.
Nick Suzuki, C/RW, Trade with VGK, No. 1
Josh Brook, RD, Drafted no. 58 in 2017, No. 4
Allan McShane, C, Drafted no. 97 in 2018, No. 7
Cam Hillis, C, Drafted no. 66 in 2018, No. 11
Cole Fonstad, LW, Drafted no. 128 in 2018, No. 13
Jarret Tyszka, LD, Drafted no. 149 in 2017, No. 16
Samuel Houde, C, Drafted no. 133 in 2018, No. 17
Scott Walford, LD, Drafted no. 68 in 2017, No. 19
Joël Teasdale, LW, Signed as FA, No. 21
Of course, the data is not meant to be taken as “player does X conclusively better than the other.” Rather, the data is meant to provide a baseline for evaluating deeper trends through video and projecting how the players will do at the next level. It’s not about comparing results, but rather explaining why a player has such results.
With that out of the way…
Shooting
I settled on expected goals per 60 minutes of ice time as the primary way I’d measure “shooting” talent. In this context, expected goals is a measure of the quality of a shot accounting for three variables: Shot type, shot location, and the pre-shot movement. A wrist shot from the hashmarks goes in 18.4 percent of the time in junior; therefore, it’s worth 0.184 expected goals. Turn the wrister into a one-timer, and the shooting percentage increases to 25.9, or 0.259 expected goals. And so on.
This chart will show up multiple times, highlighting the various statistics. The middle column contains the raw value. The column on the right is the z-score of the value, which is the number of standard deviations the data point is from the mean. Each chart is sorted by z-score, highest to lowest. Forwards and defenders are calculated separately, with an overall comparison sample size of 500 forwards and 270 defenders.
It’s evident that Suzuki stands alone among Canadiens prospects. In the CHL, he’s actually in the 95th percentile, trailing only a handful of elite finishers, and once sat atop this category until his trade to Guelph. Since the trade, he’s taken on more of a playmaking role. I detailed his performance in a piece a couple weeks back, so instead, I’ll focus on the lesser-known players.
Allan McShane lands in the next tier of Canadiens prospects. After Suzuki, McShane probably scores the most “NHL goals” of the prospects, equally as likely to score from popping into the slot just as he gets a pass as he his to hammer a one-timer past the goaltender. Watch how McShane sneaks into space here; he’s done this for at least a quarter of his 34 goals this season.
McShane’s a really sneaky shooter, often taking the extra second to wait for the goalie to slide across the net and then firing a soft, high shot against the grain. Then, he’ll just straight up beat goaltenders with medium-range bullets. McShane is consistently open for his teammates across the slot or around the net, which is what has given him impressive results in a small sample.
Houde, Teasdale, and Brook are closely ranked in the next tier; however, they each having strikingly different ways of achieving them. Brook, the defenceman, loves to rush up the ice and generate chances. While he mostly fires from just inside the faceoff dot (xG of six percent), he has the skill to get closer to the net, and could benefit from being a tad more aggressive. Plus, I just want an excuse to show everyone this goal again:
Unlike McShane, Houde’s a one-shot player, almost exclusively using a wrister. He doesn’t use his teammates particularly well, nor does he find himself on the receiving end of many set-ups like McShane and Teasdale. Since the expected goals measure heavily values one-timers and shots following passes, it’s impressive in its own way how Houde keeps pace. He relies on lugging the puck up the ice, and either shooting from range and crashing for a rebound or pulling off a highlight reel move to fire from the slot. It’s not the most projectable way to generate offence, but his raw talent makes him one of the organization’s most intriguing prospects, even with significant flaws.
Teasdale is the only “net front presence” type on this list. He records high-danger shots at a rate nearing the elite, but his role means that he’s not getting the passes preceding his shot like McShane does to increase his shooting percentage. He’s a stationary player, planting his skates into the ice and relying on his significant strength advantage over his opponents to whack away atop the paint. Because of this, I’m skeptical he brings much offence to the next level. There are, however, moments like these where he turns a broken play into a goal with second effort, coordination, and finesse.
Passing
Playmakers are undoubtedly the strength of the Canadiens’ prospect pool, and their junior prospects are no different. For this category, I chose to focus on expected primary assists per 60, which works the same as the expected goals, except the passer gets credit. A one-time shot from a pass into the slot is worth 0.259 expected goals because it finds twine 25.9 percent of the time. The passer, therefore, gets 0.259 expected assists on that play.
I know I said “no more Suzuki”, but he broke the scale. He’s the best passer in this group, whether you measure it with expected assists, actual assists, or passing skill.
After Suzuki, we have three real standouts: McShane, Brook, and Hillis.
As with shooting, McShane’s the player with the most tricks up his sleeve. He often returns the favour to his linemates, setting them up for cross-slot one-timer or passes into the slot. It’s hard to categorize his passes due to the sheer number of ways he can locate his teammates, but I’ve tried to identify two skills that make him so dangerous.
First, there’s McShane’s ability to connect with teammates in tight spaces, through the skates and sticks of defenders. In this clip, he completes two passes between the skates of a defender. It’s just a really impressive sequence, especially the second pass, kicking the puck to his stick and sliding a backhand pass across.
Second, McShane often skates in a heel-to-heel, which keeps his hips open (for agility) and shoulders square to the net or target. Watch these two plays, first a heel-to-heel pass through the defender’s legs, followed by a pass while cutting across the slot in the heel-to-heel. (It’s the threat to shoot that leaves his teammate open backdoor.)
Brook was the WHL’s highest scoring blue liner, averaging one assist and 1.27 points per game. He checks out favourably in the expected assists per 60, trailing only a handful of top-end prospects. Brook’s primary method of racking up assists is the shot-pass. It’s a shot into the slot. Or is it? He enters a shooting stance, typically high in the zone, then turns his wrist in the shooting motion to his target, firing a low, hard pass along the ice into the slot area. It’s one of those skills that every NHL defender has, but only a few can execute at such a high level. I wrote about it earlier in the season, but here are some updated clips:
Remember Cam Hillis? After recording 59 points in 60 games last year, Hillis has just 22 in 33 this year. His season has been filled with bad luck, bad play, and injuries. He’s done for the season after re-breaking his collar bone. There is some silver lining, however, and that’s his passing. Hillis can make high-skill dishes look easy. He’s good for about one a game. He’s a bit reliant on slowing the game down, but in terms of passing skill, he’s right up there with Suzuki and McShane. Hopefully he’s able to get back on track.
Fonstad’s piled up assists in the last two seasons (96), so his more average expected primary assists result might be surprising. The explanation for the disconnect is two-fold. First, Fonstad, especially in the first half, took on a greater role as a shooter. Second, Fonstad’s a short-range passer, with the majority of his passes coming from the perimeter into the area just inside the faceoff dot (xG = six percent). Whereas McShane and Hillis are finding teammates across the slot, which carries an xG three times higher, or even more, than the passes Fonstad’s best at completing. With that said, I think Fonstad’s passing skill is understated here.
Entries
For offensive zone entries, my statistic of choice is controlled entry percentage, relative to team. Controlled entry percentage is the percentage of total entries made with control, as opposed to dump ins. Since entries are influenced by the structure of team, I’ve ensured the statistic is relative to teammates to provide context to the numbers. So, if Suzuki has a controlled entry percentage of 79 percent, and his team average is 50, his controlled exit relative percentage is 29.
After Suzuki, there are several prospects who stand out. I’ll have more on Brook in the next section, so let’s start with Fonstad. Fonstad doesn’t have the speed or hands to consistently turn the corner or dangle defenders. So, he gets forced to the outside often. While many players are quickly forced out of the play in this position, Fonstad’s vision allows him escape. The short-range passer in the offensive zone makes these gorgeous full-width passes to find teammates in stride.
Houde’s the other prospect who really caught the eye in regards to entries, especially because he does it in such a different way than Fonstad. Fonstad recognizes his limitations; that’s why he makes those passes. Houde doesn’t. He carries the puck straight up the ice, at full speed, often trying to dangle his way through the defender. When it works, you get chances like these, glimpses into what Houde’s high end skill could become.
Most of the time, Houde loses the puck shortly after the blue line or fires a low-percentage shot. His rush patterns and decision-making are significant inhibitors of his game.
At the very bottom of the chart sits Hillis, who a year ago would’ve been right near the top. His sudden reliance on uncontrolled entries means that he’s carrying the puck less, and when a skilled playmaker isn’t carrying the puck, it means they’re not making passes. If he rebounds next year, I fully expect Hillis to be one of Guelph’s most avid puck carriers, like he was in his draft year.
Breakouts
For zone exits, I settled on primarily using controlled exit percentage with pressure, relative to team. This is the percentage of exits that are with control (pass or carry) instead of uncontrolled (dump out or off-the-glass-and-out) with a forechecker within one stride.
Tyszka, an unsigned 2017 fifth round pick, really stands out here. His offence hasn’t developed, which could keep him from earning a contract, but make no mistake, this 6-foot-3 defender knows how to break the puck out. A typical Tyszka breakout goes like this: Skate slowly until a forechecker closes in, then bend the knees and accelerate to break the pressure and then find a teammate shortly after crossing the blue line.
Brook has similar habits to Tyszka – he loves to draw in pressure and then use his speed to pull away –but he does it at a higher level. Brook has this smooth, crossover-dependent stride that allows him to burn up the ice. And he’s a really capable handler, evident in the way he slices through forecheckers.
Perhaps even more enticing is Brook’s passing ability. He uses that speed to skate into an open lane and fire long-range passes. As we saw earlier with his shot-passes, his vision is a key trait. He also makes some of the very best stretch passes in the CHL.
The most surprising result is Walford. Walford’s unsigned like Tyszka, but unlike Tyszka, he’s taken significant strides this year, becoming a team leader on both offence and defence. He’s completed many of the best passes I’ve seen this season, including goal line to offensive blue line saucer passes.
However, Walford’s teams dump the puck at the first sign of pressure. The five most commonly used Victoria defenders in my sample have a controlled exit percentage in a range of 10 percent, which is really small. For comparison, the difference between Brook and the fifth-ranked defender on his team is 33 percent. This shows that Victoria strictly adheres to their breakout strategy, even if it might not be optimal for Walford’s skill set.
Entry Defence
Measuring defence is tricky. There are so many facets to defence – gap control, stick work, angling, foot work, and so on. There were several metrics I considered to measure defence. I thought of dump in recoveries, but there’s too much context missing there. I also thought about break ups per 60 minutes, but a high rating could just mean the player is defending a lot. Maybe defensive turnover rates, I thought. But then I couldn’t decide if puckhandling falls strictly into defence or if it’s more transitional. What about shot share? That’s a good place to start. Good news, all three defenders are good at not getting out-shot relative to their team, and Brook and Walford are the leaders on their blue lines.
I returned to an old favourite to get an adequate, but incomplete, picture: Entry defence. Defence is so much more than preventing entries, but preventing entries is a significant part. After all, you skip most other elements if you stop the entry to begin with.
I use two measures, the first is Carry in against percentage, relative to team. This statistic measures how many times an opposing player uses an uncontrolled entry attempt as opposed to a controlled entry attempt while targeting the defender. Essentially, it’s a measure of neutral zone gap control. The tighter the gap between the attacker and defender in the neutral zone, the more likely a dump in is to a occur. Once again, the statistic is relative to account for differences in team structure. (Because it’s relative to the whole team, and not just defenders, the raw value will usually appear quite low).
Tyszka leads the Canadiens’ three CHL defenders in this category. Tyszka’s a confident defender, often closing his gap as the opposition exits their zone. The aggressiveness, combined with his speed and reach, allows Tyszka to funnel attacks to the outside, then cross the dot line and force a dump in.
It’s not always a pretty play, but it’s an essential skill. It’s also a key part of Tyszka’s evolution from a relatively average defender to possibly the best of the three featured in this article. He’s always attached to someone’s hip. He’s just abrasive enough that he wins battles shift after shift, but also always stays in the play.
The second measure is Carry in prevention percentage, relative to team. While the first statistic measures what the attacker does when targetting a specific defender, this measures what the defender does. It measures the percentage of controlled entry attempts against that are stopped (broken up) by the defender.
Tyszka, surprisingly, is average by this statistic. Even though Tyszka excels at closing the gap in the neutral zone, he’s not all that aggressive at breaking up the play. He relies on simply being 6-foot-3 with speed and standing in the way, which doesn’t lead to actively forcing break ups.
Walford is the opposite. While not the aggressive defender through the neutral zone that Tyszka is, one-on-one around the blue line, Walford is tough to beat. Like Tyszka, he’s imposing with range, but he’ll step up to prevent the rush with his body or stick.
Last season, Walford was average for Victoria at preventing controlled entries – another example of his improvement. Walford’s playing more on his strong side this year, the benefits of which are evident in this result. But I think the biggest difference is he’s just more confident. He plays deeper in the offensive zone, so when the other team breaks the puck out, Walford’s closed his gap. That interaction is visible here, where Walford breaks the play up at one end, then rushes up the ice and scores at the other.
As for Brook, who checks out relatively average by both measures, there’s nothing to be concerned about. He plays on a Moose Jaw squad that has been an entry prevention machine thanks to a layered neutral zone scheme with aggressive defenders and coordinated back pressure. So while Brook’s relative numbers are average in his team’s impressive structure, he’s well above-average by the unadjusted version.
Conclusions
The limitations of this data are numerous. With an average of 12 games tracked per player, the most obvious is sample size. While it’s true that, say, Teasdale could take seven one-timer shots off a cross-slot dish in a single game (which, I might add, occurs less than one time per game at 5-on-5) to overtake Suzuki in expected goals, it’s highly unlikely. But there’s no certainty. Without knowing a stabilization point, the uncertainty in such data is significant.
The data also misses context, such as quality of competition, at both a team level and individual matchup level, which I believe to be a significant factor in the CHL. When games are selected, I use a baseline of at least 40 minutes of 5-on-5 time with the score within a two-goal margin. For powerhouse teams like Fonstad’s Prince Albert, that’s rare. So, the games that are tracked are usually against strong teams, which might deflate Fonstad’s expected goals or assists a bit.
This project provides some insight into how the Canadiens’ deep pool of CHL players are doing. When combined with video analysis and additional viewings, the patterns emerged. And ultimately, the patterns were the talking point, insulated by the data.
While some of those trends are concerning, many are promising: Suzuki doing everything at an elite level for a junior player, Brook’s emergence as a top transition and playmaking blue liner, and Walford and Tyszka becoming top shutdown defenders in different ways. And maybe Hillis’ season wasn’t all bad.
Relative to their draft position and age group, none of the Canadiens’ nine CHL prospects were more impressive than McShane (well, except Suzuki). With exceptional tracking results, a pro-style offensive tool kit and 1.4 points per game in his last 39 games, I think McShane’s quickly gone from a fourth-round pick to one of the Canadiens’ top prospects.
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