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Post by seventeen on Jun 12, 2019 13:44:01 GMT -5
Yes the team improved from the terrible Bergevin team of two years ago but; If my child was on a five year program to graduate from college and he failed in the sixth year with terrible results and repeated the year, again failing again but almost passing, I would not be pleased. When the goal is to be the valedictorian, not just get by, seven years of failure means change is needed. We are not close to winning the cup and while we have some good young players there isn’t a star in the group, much less a great first line like the bruins, blues, leafs or lightning have. Agreed, however if my child was in a five year program to graduate from college and he failed in the sixth year with terrible results then I may stand behind him if he changed his major and I saw drastic improvements by him taking a new path. I wouldn't necessarily disown him. The goal is to have a successful long term career and not be valedictorian. I agree that Montreal is not right now in the same class as Tampa, Toronto or Boston but in 2015 the Bruins had picks number 13-14-15 in the first round and passed over Matthew Barzel with all of them. If that had been Bergevin doing the same thing for Montreal some guys would still call him incompetent and want him gone. We probably would have forgiven Berg for those errors if he'd picked Pastrnak, Donato and Heinen the year before, Brandon Carlo in the second round in 2015, and McAvoy in 2016. Gotta be fair. I've mentioned it before, but Keith Gretzky was in charge for the 2014-16 drafts where they picked those guys, and blew 2 of the three picks in a row that they had in one of the strongest drafts in a while. He now works for Edmonton, so we may see some improvements there in the coming years and hopefully a lot of misses in Beantown. I've always criticized Bergevin for seemingly not having a plan and I've yet to see what looks like a plan. The scuttlebutt seems to indicate Berg may be interested in Duchene and if so, one would have to think he's trying to win right now. The problem as I see it with that plan is that so many of the good young prospecte we have will not be experienced enough to make the team next year and likely not productive enough to contribute to a serious playoff run for at least a couple of years. So you're basically going to war with the current players plus Duchene. Within 2 to 3 years, the kids will be better, of course, but by then, Weber will be 36, Petry 33/34, Byron 32 and Shaw 30. While things are getting better on one side, they're getting worse on the other. Hoping those older, core players can maintain their productivity is a hope rather than a plan. Broken record time, but I would have preferred a real plan where some of those older guys get traded for players in the 23-26 age range who still will be productive when the kids mature. So Berg is satisfying the fans' cries to improve the team right now to make the playoffs, and with Duchene they undoubtedly will, but they will not be a true contender. They'll still be that "make the playoffs and anything can happen team", with the most likely result being elimination before the 3rd round. You can't win the Cup every year, but you can consider having a successful season if you're one of the last 4 teams standing. Bergevin's done that once, in 2013/14 on the back of an all worldly Price, a dominant Subban, a 39 goal season from Pacioretty and 13 points in 17 playoff games from Lars Eller (second highest on the team after PK). Basically carried by the guys he inherited and a very good late season acquisition of scoring in the form of Thomas Vanek. So, a third round defeat, a second round defeat, and two first round losses around 3 years of missing the playoffs. Worse...his record is one first round defeat wrapped around 3 years of missing the playoffs after he dismantled the core he inherited. So when you step back, you can see how his record has truly gone. Yes, we've had 2 years of what appears to be good drafting (fingers crossed) and a couple of good trades, with some remarkably bad signings sprinkled in, but even good prospects don't 100% turn out and Berg's lack of planning to get the timing right will hurt the team. Barring some very good fortune, which can happen. The issue, IMO, is that he is heavily invested in the very guys he should be moving to line up the timing correctly. Weber and Shaw should be traded. Perhaps even Gallagher if BC has his way, but keeping him is perfectly fine if you can open some CAP space to resign him. This strategy means you may miss the playoffs next year (or just make them if you sign Duchene), but the outlook for the team is much, much better from that point on. You lose leadership with Weber and Shaw gone, but there's plenty of it with Byron, Gallagher and Danault. I expect Kotkaniemi to start displaying leadership qualities as well. Get some return for Weber and Shaw, give the kids more ice time and exposure and good things will happen. You'll be a team that is expected to make the playoffs, not just hopes to make the playoffs. My apologies for the long post which is probably in the wrong area, but I find Berg so frustrating. |
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Post by Willie Dog on Jun 12, 2019 15:14:25 GMT -5
"make the playoffs and anything can happen team" If I never hear this phrase again, I will be one happy Habs fan... That statement is about desperation and not about winning... This is the Montreal Canadiens, we used to be all about winning, not just making it. |
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Draft '19
Jun 13, 2019 9:12:30 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jun 13, 2019 9:12:30 GMT -5
Agreed, however if my child was in a five year program to graduate from college and he failed in the sixth year with terrible results then I may stand behind him if he changed his major and I saw drastic improvements by him taking a new path. I wouldn't necessarily disown him. The goal is to have a successful long term career and not be valedictorian. I agree that Montreal is not right now in the same class as Tampa, Toronto or Boston but in 2015 the Bruins had picks number 13-14-15 in the first round and passed over Matthew Barzel with all of them. If that had been Bergevin doing the same thing for Montreal some guys would still call him incompetent and want him gone. We probably would have forgiven Berg for those errors if he'd picked Pastrnak, Donato and Heinen the year before, Brandon Carlo in the second round in 2015, and McAvoy in 2016. Gotta be fair. I've mentioned it before, but Keith Gretzky was in charge for the 2014-16 drafts where they picked those guys, and blew 2 of the three picks in a row that they had in one of the strongest drafts in a while. He now works for Edmonton, so we may see some improvements there in the coming years and hopefully a lot of misses in Beantown. I've always criticized Bergevin for seemingly not having a plan and I've yet to see what looks like a plan. The scuttlebutt seems to indicate Berg may be interested in Duchene and if so, one would have to think he's trying to win right now. The problem as I see it with that plan is that so many of the good young prospecte we have will not be experienced enough to make the team next year and likely not productive enough to contribute to a serious playoff run for at least a couple of years. So you're basically going to war with the current players plus Duchene. Within 2 to 3 years, the kids will be better, of course, but by then, Weber will be 36, Petry 33/34, Byron 32 and Shaw 30. While things are getting better on one side, they're getting worse on the other. Hoping those older, core players can maintain their productivity is a hope rather than a plan. Broken record time, but I would have preferred a real plan where some of those older guys get traded for players in the 23-26 age range who still will be productive when the kids mature. So Berg is satisfying the fans' cries to improve the team right now to make the playoffs, and with Duchene they undoubtedly will, but they will not be a true contender. They'll still be that "make the playoffs and anything can happen team", with the most likely result being elimination before the 3rd round. You can't win the Cup every year, but you can consider having a successful season if you're one of the last 4 teams standing. Bergevin's done that once, in 2013/14 on the back of an all worldly Price, a dominant Subban, a 39 goal season from Pacioretty and 13 points in 17 playoff games from Lars Eller (second highest on the team after PK). Basically carried by the guys he inherited and a very good late season acquisition of scoring in the form of Thomas Vanek. So, a third round defeat, a second round defeat, and two first round losses around 3 years of missing the playoffs. Worse...his record is one first round defeat wrapped around 3 years of missing the playoffs after he dismantled the core he inherited. So when you step back, you can see how his record has truly gone. Yes, we've had 2 years of what appears to be good drafting (fingers crossed) and a couple of good trades, with some remarkably bad signings sprinkled in, but even good prospects don't 100% turn out and Berg's lack of planning to get the timing right will hurt the team. Barring some very good fortune, which can happen. The issue, IMO, is that he is heavily invested in the very guys he should be moving to line up the timing correctly. Weber and Shaw should be traded. Perhaps even Gallagher if BC has his way, but keeping him is perfectly fine if you can open some CAP space to resign him. This strategy means you may miss the playoffs next year (or just make them if you sign Duchene), but the outlook for the team is much, much better from that point on. You lose leadership with Weber and Shaw gone, but there's plenty of it with Byron, Gallagher and Danault. I expect Kotkaniemi to start displaying leadership qualities as well. Get some return for Weber and Shaw, give the kids more ice time and exposure and good things will happen. You'll be a team that is expected to make the playoffs, not just hopes to make the playoffs. My apologies for the long post which is probably in the wrong area, but I find Berg so frustrating. We can go over individual decisions in detail, bad move bad move good trade bad signing departures but bottom line is overall failure. We want the cup. Valedictorian. The arrogance the smirk. Moldova incompance. No other GM with this record would still be employed. As usual we are overvaluing projections of our good but not great rookies and farm. Fire the bas$&@d. |
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Post by seventeen on Jun 13, 2019 12:47:00 GMT -5
I've looked at a couple of mock drafts and most have us taking a defenseman at 15, because there's no clear distinction as to who is the BPA and because of need. I keep looking at Arthur Kaliyev, who is an elite scorer. He's a RW, which is a weak spot on the team after Gallagher for scoring.
The knock on Kaliyev is that he's not always engaged, or at least gives that impression. That criticism reminds me of similar 'concerns' about Brett Hull, Phil Kessel and, especially, Mike Bossy. Bossy should not have been the 5th right winger taken in the 77 draft after Mike Crombeen, Lucien DEblois, Mark Napier and Ric Seiling. But scouts weren't sure about his compete level and if he would shy away from NHL contact and checking. I don't blame Bossy. Why throw big checks if that's not your game? Bossy, along with Hull and Kessel, were not noted for being defensive stalwarts. Now, after their careers are over or ending....who cares? They could (can) score like few others. Cournoyer was never a defensive specialist. All these guys could backcheck occasionally when the situation required, but you're not paying them to be Bob Gainey. SCouts say there are no character issues with Kaliyev, just compete issues.
So I have some interest in Kaliyev, because we have plenty of guys without compete issues but very few, if any, pure goal scorers.
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Post by blny on Jun 13, 2019 13:25:27 GMT -5
I've looked at a couple of mock drafts and most have us taking a defenseman at 15, because there's no clear distinction as to who is the BPA and because of need. I keep looking at Arthur Kaliyev, who is an elite scorer. He's a RW, which is a weak spot on the team after Gallagher for scoring. The knock on Kaliyev is that he's not always engaged, or at least gives that impression. That criticism reminds me of similar 'concerns' about Brett Hull, Phil Kessel and, especially, Mike Bossy. Bossy should not have been the 5th right winger taken in the 77 draft after Mike Crombeen, Lucien DEblois, Mark Napier and Ric Seiling. But scouts weren't sure about his compete level and if he would shy away from NHL contact and checking. I don't blame Bossy. Why throw big checks if that's not your game? Bossy, along with Hull and Kessel, were not noted for being defensive stalwarts. Now, after their careers are over or ending....who cares? They could (can) score like few others. Cournoyer was never a defensive specialist. All these guys could backcheck occasionally when the situation required, but you're not paying them to be Bob Gainey. SCouts say there are no character issues with Kaliyev, just compete issues. So I have some interest in Kaliyev, because we have plenty of guys without compete issues but very few, if any, pure goal scorers. His coaches have spoke to this and attempted to squash the notion. In his rookie season, it was an issue, but as far as they're concerned he's worked hard to be a more complete player. Outside of that, the knock is a lack of foot speed. The clips I've seen show him getting to where he needs to be efficiently enough. With a shot as good as his, he can be further out than most. Mark Stone is hardly fast, and he more than overcomes it. If the goal is simply to add goals, I don't think Kaliyev is a bad selection at all. If he's still there. |
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Post by folatre on Jun 13, 2019 13:57:23 GMT -5
Suzuki was amazing this year but I am curious to see whether he is a big time goal scorer against men. And basically there is no one else in the system who profiles as a sniper so if Timmins thinks the issues with a kid like Kaliyev (or Lavoie for that matter) are not a big deal then it would be nice to slot a natural goal scorer into the club's prospect pool.
Given where the Habs are picking, however, it seems likelier they pick a d-man.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 13, 2019 17:08:24 GMT -5
Since you guys are talking about the first round...here we go.
After posting my ramblings about rounds two to seven, I figured next up should be a discussion about our first round pick, #15. I figured I would take a very different approach by adding a bit of context first.
This draft, like all drafts, is about tiers. There will be several tiers within the first round even. That is very normal, it happens every year. That being said, several teams are going to make draft picks that blow these tiers up and add some fun and uncertainty to the first round (and others). That also happens every year. As we currently sit at 15th, we are sort of hoping a bit of this happens ahead of us. I will explain why.
The consensus first tier is hard to dispute. Two players:
Jack Hughes C
Kaapo Kakko RW
Just like last year, this draft gets fun with the third pick. The second tier seems to run from about pick #3 to #12. There are variations out there, but I will go with 12 as a cut off point as it makes sense to little old me. Those players in not totally random order are:
Bowen Byram LD
Alex Turcotte C
Kirby Dach C
Trevor Zegras C
Cole Caufield RW
Matthew Boldy LW
Dylan Cozens C/RW
Peyton Krebs C
Vasili Podkolzin RW
Alex Newhook C/LW
As an aside, for those keeping count, that is a possible 5 players from the same team in the top ten. The USNDP team was really stacked this year, and that is even before Cam York enters the conversation.
Back to that last tier that goes up to #12. It means that our #15 pick is just outside that tier of players. Other than Byram who should go #3 or immediately thereafter, the entire top 12 are forwards this year. The next tier starts the run on the next group of defenders, all who are a notch below Byram. If I follow a number of draft watchers who put this tier at about picks #13 to #20, those players could be in my mind the following in no order (this time):
Victor Soderstrom RD
Cam York LD
Moritz Seider RD
Philip Broberg LD
Thomas Harley LD
Philip Tomasino C
Arthur Kaliyev LW
Raphael Lavoie RW
Depending on what list you review or what players you like more than others, there is a case that any of the following could be in that tier above:
Spencer Knight G
Bobby Brink RW
Ryan Suzuik C
Ville Heinola LD
To me, Knight is the biggest wild card in the first round. Teams tend to shy away from using first round picks on goalies these days. Several look at Knight as being a generational goalie, so a team could very well pounce if they like his projection and see the value in adding a possible starter over a skater. For purposes of the next part of the discussion, I will just stick with those names up to 20 that I have listed above (up to Lavoie in other words).
As you can see, barring major unexpected picks, we will be picking in the thick of the next grouping of mainly defensemen. If none of guys like Krebs, Podkolzin or Newhook (the only likely fallers IMO) fall, then the BPA is almost likely a defender. If one or more of them fall, then it will be really interesting to see what TT does. Does he value them more than his top defender out of that other list? I would expect so, but that is just my own opinion. He may really like one of those defenders more regardless.
So a little bit about those players in the next tier in which our pick falls:
Victor Soderstrom, RD, Brynas (SHL/Swe Jr), 6’0” 183 – He is a strong and smooth skating, highly competitive defender who is strong in both ends of the rink. He split his season between the Swedish junior league (14 games) and the SHL (44 games). So, he has already shown his ability to play against men in the top league in Sweden. He did play briefly for Sweden in the Hlinka (then he was injured) and he did suit up at the end of the season for the U18s.
Cam York, LD, USNDP (USHL), 5’11” 172 – He is a smooth skater, although not as fast as some of the others under discussion. He did set a scoring record this year for a defenseman in the USNDP. The biggest concern is his weak shot, as you expect a defender who aspires to be a top two guy will need a much better shot than he currently possesses. He played for the USA at the U18s. They build the team for two years for that event in April. As such, that is why he did not play in the Hlinka. USA Hockey picks those players typically from the CHL, USHL, and USHS. He is committed to U of Michigan next season.
Moritz Seider, RD, Adler Mannheim (DEL), 6’4” 207 – Despite being a 2001 born, he never actually played in his age group at all this season. His club play was in the top German men’s league, and he suited up for Germany as their captain at the WJC (Division 1) and played for the men’s team at the World Championships. He is a big and mobile defender, who handles and moves the puck with confidence, which grew as the season progressed against older and much more experienced players. His offensive upside is still untapped as he has not been able to develop that as much as he would have been able to do playing juniors or even internally at the U18 level. He has untapped offensive potential, although he likely will be a really solid two-way guy due to his solid defense. RDs are in demand. It would not shock me to see him gone before 15.
Philip Broberg, LD, 6’3” 201, AIK (Allsvenskan) – The big mobile defender played most of his hockey this season in the Swedish second league. He was also a mainstay on the national team at the Hlinka, U18s and WJC. As an aside…of the guys on this list, he is the one that I saw most live (three times in two events) and other games in TV. He is sound defensively and loves to rush the puck. There are questions about his hockey IQ relative to making decision making with the puck. His go-to move is rushing it up and trying to skate and power through everyone. It works at the U18 level, but… He had a great U18s and was top defender, so along with size and skating, there is a big chance he goes before our pick too.
Thomas Harley, LD, Mississauga (OHL), 6’3” 192 – The big rangy defender is one of the younger ones early in the draft, due to his August birthday. He played for Canada at the U18s and showed his offensive skill set and skating abilities. He makes the odd defensive mistake though as he is still a bit raw in that part of the game. A lot will depend on how team’s project his ability to tighten up defensively and in the decision making area. He has untapped potential based on his continued development for sure.
Philip Tomasino, C, Niagara (OHL), 6’0” 181 – He has been moving up the rankings this season. He ended up getting over a point per game on a very deep Niagara team. He also had a good showing with Team Canada at the U18s in April. He has really good first steps and is an elusive playmaker. He is a late July birthday as well, so another younger player in this draft. So, he likely will grow into his body a bit over time.
Arthur Kaliyev, LW, Hamilton (OHL), 6’2” 194 – As polarizing a player as you can get. He cracked the 50 goal plateau as a 17 year old (an amazing 51g 51a in 67gp), which puts him in very distinguished company in the OHL historically. The rest of his game is where questions remain and why he is not a top ten lock. His defensive game is very weak and his effort seems to always be in question. He did play for the USA at the Hlinka, where I saw him live for the only time this season. He is a top notch goal scorer, one of the best in this draft.
Raphael Lavoie, RW, Halifax (QMJHL), 6’4” 198 – The lanky winger likely needs no introduction around these parts. Certain media outlets have already sized him up for his Habs jersey. He had a productive season with 32 goals and 73 points in the regular season, but exploded with 20 goals in 23 playoff games. He also suited up for Canada at the U18s and netted 5 goals in 5 games. Despite his size, he does not play big nor particularly physical. You will see him in scrums after the fact, but his play between whistles is not physical. There are also questions about his intensity level, consistency and willingness to play in the tough areas of the ice. He is also one of the older players in the draft. His name will be forever linked to the Habs this draft, at least until the 15th pick is selected.
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Post by folatre on Jun 13, 2019 19:17:45 GMT -5
Nice clarity and reasoning as you break down the potential tier 2 and 3 of the first round. The order that the kids in tier 2 come off the board does not really matter too much for Montreal (e.g. will Chicago take Turcotte over Byram or will LA take Caufield or Boldy or whoever) but there are always surprises and it is fascinating to think about who may fall. For me the likeliest ones to fall are Krebs because of his injury, Podkolzin because he is Russian and not coming to North America until 2020-21, and Newhook. As you say, NW, if a kid from that group falls the question is where does Timmins rate him in relation to the d-men that will likely be on the board at #15.
I would take Podkolzin or Newhook if one is available. I agree there is a good chance Broberg is gone. I like Harley's growth potential. If Harley, Kaliyev and Lavoie are all sitting there I would definitely be torn. I like all three because the ceiling for each is intriguing. Of course, none of them is potentially the safest pick at #15 if the only criterion is will the kid eventually evolve into a guy that will play at least 400-500 NHL games. Soderstrom, York, and Heinola may be safer if that is the operational grading tool.
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 14, 2019 9:05:52 GMT -5
Great stuff NWT, and thanks for all the hard work! To me, Knight is the biggest wild card in the first round. Teams tend to shy away from using first round picks on goalies these days. Several look at Knight as being a generational goalie, so a team could very well pounce if they like his projection and see the value in adding a possible starter over a skater. For purposes of the next part of the discussion, I will just stick with those names up to 20 that I have listed above (up to Lavoie in other words). As you can see, barring major unexpected picks, we will be picking in the thick of the next grouping of mainly defensemen. If none of guys like Krebs, Podkolzin or Newhook (the only likely fallers IMO) fall, then the BPA is almost likely a defender. If one or more of them fall, then it will be really interesting to see what TT does. Does he value them more than his top defender out of that other list? I would expect so, but that is just my own opinion. He may really like one of those defenders more regardless. Soooooo... you say that when we pick "the BPA is almost likely to be a defender"... but what if it's Knight? I heard Bob McKenzie on the radio this morning saying that not only are people comparing Knight to Price, but that US hockey people are saying Knight could be the best American goalie EVER. He's 6'3, and apparently blew away the combine. Some are calling him the best athlete in the draft. He's committed to Boston College for next year. Would Timmins... should Timmins... could Timmins?? How much fun would that be? I get it. Price, Lindgren, McNiven, Primeau. That's a lot of depth. But think of it this way... Price will be the number one guy for at least three more years. Which is right about the time Knight should start to break into the NHL (two years in college, one year in the AHL). Four years from now Price and the rookie Knight split duties, five years from now Knight takes over the number one spot half-way through the year (at the tender age of 23), and Price gracefully slides into retirement, with a diminishing, but still important role. 2019-20: Price and Lindgren - NHL Primeau and McNiven - AHL Knight - NCAA 2020-21: Price and Primeau - NHL McNiven and ?? - AHL Knight - NCAA Lindgren traded, or in the AHL as a career minor-leaguer 2021-22: Price and Primeau - NHL McNiven and Knight - AHL 2022-23: Price and Knight - NHL Primeau traded 2023-24: Price/Knight - NHL 2024-25: Knight and Price - NHL 2025-26: Knight and Price - NHL 2026-27: Price retires, Knight the undisputed #1 at the age of 25. |
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Post by blny on Jun 14, 2019 9:19:50 GMT -5
Great stuff NWT, and thanks for all the hard work! To me, Knight is the biggest wild card in the first round. Teams tend to shy away from using first round picks on goalies these days. Several look at Knight as being a generational goalie, so a team could very well pounce if they like his projection and see the value in adding a possible starter over a skater. For purposes of the next part of the discussion, I will just stick with those names up to 20 that I have listed above (up to Lavoie in other words). As you can see, barring major unexpected picks, we will be picking in the thick of the next grouping of mainly defensemen. If none of guys like Krebs, Podkolzin or Newhook (the only likely fallers IMO) fall, then the BPA is almost likely a defender. If one or more of them fall, then it will be really interesting to see what TT does. Does he value them more than his top defender out of that other list? I would expect so, but that is just my own opinion. He may really like one of those defenders more regardless. Soooooo... you say that when we pick "the BPA is almost likely to be a defender"... but what if it's Knight? I heard Bob McKenzie on the radio this morning saying that not only are people comparing Knight to Price, but that US hockey people are saying Knight could be the best American goalie EVER. He's 6'3, and apparently blew away the combine. Some are calling him the best athlete in the draft. He's committed to Boston College for next year. Would Timmins... should Timmins... could Timmins?? How much fun would that be? I get it. Price, Lindgren, McNiven, Primeau. That's a lot of depth. But think of it this way... Price will be the number one guy for at least three more years. Which is right about the time Knight should start to break into the NHL (two years in college, one year in the AHL). Four years from now Price and the rookie Knight split duties, five years from now Knight takes over the number one spot half-way through the year (at the tender age of 23), and Price gracefully slides into retirement, with a diminishing, but still important role. 2019-20: Price and Lindgren - NHL Primeau and McNiven - AHL Knight - NCAA 2020-21: Price and Primeau - NHL McNiven and ?? - AHL Knight - NCAA Lindgren traded, or in the AHL as a career minor-leaguer 2021-22: Price and Primeau - NHL McNiven and Knight - AHL 2022-23: Price and Knight - NHL Primeau traded 2023-24: Price/Knight - NHL 2024-25: Knight and Price - NHL 2025-26: Knight and Price - NHL 2026-27: Price retires, Knight the undisputed #1 at the age of 25. It would likely create nearly as many ripples as the Price pick in '05. The commonalities are there. Pressing needs elsewhere, established player AND quality depth in the organization. |
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Post by BadCompany on Jun 14, 2019 9:44:59 GMT -5
I hated the Price pick. HATED it. For all the reasons you just mentioned.
But in retrospect, it seems like I was terribly wrong. Price was not only the best player available at that point, but arguably he was BY FAR the best player available. The only other player that would come remotely close is Anze Kopitar, and while a pretty good argument could be made pro and con the #1 goalie versus #1 center, the fact is that nobody else was even close. And that was with a 5th overall pick.
So the question is then, would any of the defensemen we take at 15 have anywhere near the impact Price has had on the team? Would it better to get a generational talent – assuming Knight is in fact a generational talent – that would solidify the goaltending position for the next 15 to 17 years, that would ensure that you have some of the best goaltending in the league for the next decade and a half, or would it be better to get a #2 or #3 defenseman that fits a more pressing short-term need? Or a second line winger who scores 25-30 goals?
I guess this is where you have to really trust your scouts. If they think one of those defensemen will be a #1 guy, or one of those forwards will be a top 10-15 guy in the league, then I guess you gotta take them. But if you're passing up a potential top 5 goalie to get a 2nd line/pairing guy, is that the best move for the long term health of the franchise? Isn't that what the draft is supposed to be about?
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Post by folatre on Jun 14, 2019 10:13:07 GMT -5
Interesting debate guys.
If Knight is truly perceived by scouts as a generational goalie, then Timmins will probably never have to cross this bridge because clubs like Buffalo or Edmonton should grab him.
I know that often even hockey men kind of look at goalies like they are species apart and feel so uneasy about projecting goalie development. But for a kid whose talent may be head and shoulders above what is commonly seen at that position, it almost seems as though Knight deserves consideration from the BPA angle by every team in the draft starting around fifth pick.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 14, 2019 10:38:13 GMT -5
I think we will pick at least one goalie this draft. I just don't think we use the 15th pick for it, even for a potential stud like Knight. There are some pretty decent goalies this draft. You can get a pretty good one middle rounds.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 14, 2019 11:32:20 GMT -5
Arthur Kaliyev, LW, Hamilton (OHL), 6’2” 194 – As polarizing a player as you can get. He cracked the 50 goal plateau as a 17 year old (an amazing 51g 51a in 67gp), which puts him in very distinguished company in the OHL historically. The rest of his game is where questions remain and why he is not a top ten lock. His defensive game is very weak and his effort seems to always be in question. He did play for the USA at the Hlinka, where I saw him live for the only time this season. He is a top notch goal scorer, one of the best in this draft. For a minute I thought you were describing Alexei Kovalev ... Cheers. |
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jun 14, 2019 12:26:27 GMT -5
I hated the Price pick. HATED it. For all the reasons you just mentioned. But in retrospect, it seems like I was terribly wrong. Price was not only the best player available at that point, but arguably he was BY FAR the best player available. The only other player that would come remotely close is Anze Kopitar, and while a pretty good argument could be made pro and con the #1 goalie versus #1 center, the fact is that nobody else was even close. And that was with a 5th overall pick. So the question is then, would any of the defensemen we take at 15 have anywhere near the impact Price has had on the team? Would it better to get a generational talent – assuming Knight is in fact a generational talent – that would solidify the goaltending position for the next 15 to 17 years, that would ensure that you have some of the best goaltending in the league for the next decade and a half, or would it be better to get a #2 or #3 defenseman that fits a more pressing short-term need? Or a second line winger who scores 25-30 goals? I guess this is where you have to really trust your scouts. If they think one of those defensemen will be a #1 guy, or one of those forwards will be a top 10-15 guy in the league, then I guess you gotta take them. But if you're passing up a potential top 5 goalie to get a 2nd line/pairing guy, is that the best move for the long term health of the franchise? Isn't that what the draft is supposed to be about? No way should the Habs pick Knight. Not unless they are willing to trade Carey Price in the next 2 years, which is hard to do at any time given his contract. If he's there when we pick at #15 then I'd rather trade down with another team that wants him more. Price was a great pick, partly because he paid big dividends almost immediately. He was playing in Montreal and was a top goalie by the time he was 20. Unless the Habs are prepared to hand the goalie job over to Knight at around the same age, I don't know why you do that. I get that the draft is all about the future, but we have the goalie position locked up at a $10.5m cap hit for the next 7 years. How long do you want to wait for Spencer Knight? If the kid is really that good, he's going to be ready to be a #1 goalie in 2 years, 3 years max. But hey, I was never on board with giving Price that contract anyway. We should have let him go UFA. The goalie position has been devalued to the point where it's just not worth locking up all that cap space on the position. The Blues just won with freaking Jordan Binnington who has spent more time in the AHL than the NHL. The Penguins have won with Matt Murray. You can win the Cup with a solid-but-not-elite goaltending. I'd rather focus on guys that can potentially give us more value at the position. Either that or draft Knight and deal Price at the first opportunity, which I'd do in a heartbeat but not sure that would fly. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 14, 2019 13:01:19 GMT -5
I think that the discussion around relative value is right on.
I would expect that a strong puck moving defender or a highly-regarded skilled forward would have more value than a top notch goalie prospect at 15 for the Habs right now. I could be wrong, but that is my assessment.
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Post by Cranky on Jun 14, 2019 13:47:28 GMT -5
If you want to win the cup with less then elite goalies, you better have an air tight defensive system that EVERYBODY buys into.
I can see that with the Blues, but the Laffs? I doubt they are that disciplined/committed. Or the Habs in that respect. Besides, we don't have the overall size to do that in a 20-25 post season run. if memory serves me, we are one of the smallest teams in the NHL.
As for picking Knight. Why not? IF...I repeat, IF we sign Karlsson/Myers/Gardiner, we have a decent balance from front to back. Plus tradable assets.
This could be a pivotal year....so I'm prepared top be disappointed!
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jun 14, 2019 13:59:09 GMT -5
Nice clarity and reasoning as you break down the potential tier 2 and 3 of the first round. The order that the kids in tier 2 come off the board does not really matter too much for Montreal (e.g. will Chicago take Turcotte over Byram or will LA take Caufield or Boldy or whoever) but there are always surprises and it is fascinating to think about who may fall. For me the likeliest ones to fall are Krebs because of his injury, Podkolzin because he is Russian and not coming to North America until 2020-21, and Newhook. As you say, NW, if a kid from that group falls the question is where does Timmins rate him in relation to the d-men that will likely be on the board at #15. I would take Podkolzin or Newhook if one is available. I agree there is a good chance Broberg is gone. I like Harley's growth potential. If Harley, Kaliyev and Lavoie are all sitting there I would definitely be torn. I like all three because the ceiling for each is intriguing. Of course, none of them is potentially the safest pick at #15 if the only criterion is will the kid eventually evolve into a guy that will play at least 400-500 NHL games. Soderstrom, York, and Heinola may be safer if that is the operational grading tool. I agree 100 percent. There will be some surprises and so né of the top 13 will still be on the board. We have depth but no superstar. Kaliyev, Caufield, Podkolzin and Newhook are high risk high reward. Another safe pick that will likely make a third line player is not needed. |
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Post by Anardil1 on Jun 14, 2019 14:16:02 GMT -5
To continue with the goalie talk, if the Habs pick Knight, the internet will break.
On a side note, former member of the Habs scouting staff, Grant McKagg, is saying that Timmins is eyeing d-man Lassi Thomson. He doesn't mention if the Habs would choose him @15, but if they are, it would surely be a massive reach, as Thomson is rated mostly as an early to mid 2nd rounder.
This could be click bait, as McKagg has tried to get an independent scouting service off the ground. However, McKagg is somewhat still connected to Timmins. Only a week left to wait for what will surely be an interesting draft.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 14, 2019 16:51:35 GMT -5
Who's to say Primeau won't be as good as KNight? Projecting a goalie is like herding cats. You think you've got it right and oooops. Forget it. I'm still of the opinion you use later picks on goalies, not a first rounder.
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Post by seventeen on Jun 14, 2019 16:55:25 GMT -5
To continue with the goalie talk, if the Habs pick Knight, the internet will break. On a side note, former member of the Habs scouting staff, Grant McKagg, is saying that Timmins is eyeing d-man Lassi Thomson. He doesn't mention if the Habs would choose him @15, but if they are, it would surely be a massive reach, as Thomson is rated mostly as an early to mid 2nd rounder. This could be click bait, as McKagg has tried to get an independent scouting service off the ground. However, McKagg is somewhat still connected to Timmins. Only a week left to wait for what will surely be an interesting draft. A big issue with Thomson, for me, is that his birthday is Sept 24th, so he's a full year older that some of the other guys available. That's a full year of development. I could see the Habs interested if he falls to the mid second round. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 14, 2019 19:47:35 GMT -5
... it wouldn't surprise me if Timmins uses his picks to move UP, instead of moving down to get more picks. I think it will be pretty tough to move up in the first round, but I could see using either both of our 2nd round picks, or one of the 2nds and a 3rd/4th to move up to the top of the 2nd round, for example (*cough Edmonton cough Anaheim*). Or a couple of the 5ths to move up into the late 4th. That sort of thing. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 14, 2019 22:31:03 GMT -5
Thompson has tons of offensive skills, but like seventeen mentions, he he is one of the oldest in the draft. If he had equivalent defensive skills, he would be a great pick at 15. I don’t see him lasting past the early second. He is a TT pick, but hopefully not at 15. I see him falling between our picks like a ton of other interesting guys.
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Draft '19
Jun 15, 2019 9:50:17 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Willie Dog on Jun 15, 2019 9:50:17 GMT -5
Blecher Reports mock draft has the Habs picking Matthew Boldy... 6'3" 198 lb. Left wing sniper flip.it/hlEBsv |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 15, 2019 9:55:45 GMT -5
Blecher Reports mock draft has the Habs picking Matthew Boldy... 6'3" 198 lb. Left wing sniper flip.it/hlEBsvFrom " The Draft Analyst" ... Scouting Report
It’s not often you see a teenage winger literally play mistake-free hockey game after game, but Boldy finds a way to solving his own team’s problems while simultaneously presenting the opposition with a bunch of their own. He’s got pro-ready size, off-the-charts hockey sense and can score from just about anywhere. Boldy has buttery-soft hands and acts as a set-up man for all four of his mates when he himself is not flanking a playmaker, so this kind of versatility is exactly what you want in a future pro. He warrants a lot of attention from all five on-ice opponents for several reasons, namely for the violent nature of his directional changes while maintaining full control of the puck. It’s rare to see such a powerful skater look as graceful as Boldy does, and there are times where you have to remind yourself that the player dominating the puck is still a teenager and not a mid-20’s NHL forward.
He displayed a clear understanding of who his high-profile teammates were, and he likes to share the puck with them. There is a selfless way about Boldy’s game, but he won’t hesitate to rock defenders to sleep with nifty moves and a quick step or fake that gets him in prime shooting areas. Once he’s there, Boldy can quickly whip a heavy wrist shot labeled for the corner, even if it’s off his back foot or overextended. He’s also a deadly power-play threat from either manning the half wall or establishing position in the slot to screen or tip passes home. He can be used on the penalty kill as well, but he doesn’t need to be a man down to lend support below the circles to his defensemen.
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Post by folatre on Jun 15, 2019 10:44:44 GMT -5
I would be very surprised and pleased if Boldy fell to #15. I actually think he goes in the top 10.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 15, 2019 10:57:27 GMT -5
I would be very surprised and pleased if Boldy fell to #15. I actually think he goes in the top 10. As the top power winger with speed and skill in this draft, he should. |
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jun 15, 2019 11:04:13 GMT -5
That website is a great accessible resource. Steve K puts in a lot of work on those profiles and reports. He just published a draft guide this week too. |
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jun 15, 2019 12:07:02 GMT -5
That website is a great accessible resource. Steve K puts in a lot of work on those profiles and reports. He just published a draft guide this week too. Well, if you're endorsing the site I'll definitely bookmark it ... thanks, NWT ... Cheers. |
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Post by Anardil1 on Jun 15, 2019 12:31:42 GMT -5
Blecher Reports mock draft has the Habs picking Matthew Boldy... 6'3" 198 lb. Left wing sniper flip.it/hlEBsvI would be shocked if Boldy was still available @15. If Boldy is still available, Bergevin & Co. should sprint to the stage George Costanza style. |
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