Draft '20

[Tankdriver]

Jul 31, 2020 12:08:50 GMT -5 folatre said:

I think Foudy is still well regarded because of his speed and work ethic. But a few months ago he was almost always being projected in the 30-45 range whereas the kid has dropped a bit in a few final rankings (Mckenzie had him #46, The Hockey News #48, Button #80, and I think a couple of others have him the late second/early third round range).

It is probably more a reflection of other kids coming on strong than any particular red flag on Foudy. And like you say, NW, it is likely also related to him not producing more offensively in 2019-20 than he did in 2018-19. Who knows, maybe a kid like him would have gotten a summer bump if the combine had been held because by all accounts he is a workout warrior (again, not surprising given who his parents are).

That St. Louis pick is going to be somewhere in the 57-62 range. I think Foudy would be a safe pick in that range if he is available (I see him as a Todd Marchant type forward who probably has a third line ceiling), though perhaps Timmins will see someone sitting there with more upside potential.

I think we have enough third line guys. A second round pick should have possible 1st line potential but most likely second line player. I'd rather aim high and go for broke on potential than safe picks...we've had our fair share of De la Rose and Lehonen's...time for a Bergeron (45th) and Marchand (71st pick) or Duncan Keith (54).

[seventeen]

Not specifically relating to Foudy, but if he's a safe pick, I'd prefer to roll the dice. My personal philosophy is that I'd rather spend a pick on a guy with a 10% chance of being a 7 out of 10 player than a guy who has a 60% chance for being a 5. That's for picks from the late 2nd round on, of course. Someone with an obvious weakness that, if ever corrected, shoots them up the quality ladder.

Now, if you're looking for a guy who could be a great 4th liner or very good 3rd liner, where scoring isn't at a premium, then a guy like Foudy makes sense. Lots of desire and tremendous skating ability.

Edit: Sheesh, I typed this before I saw Tankdriver's note above. I'm sounding like an echo.

[folatre]

Fundamentally, I agree with what you guys are saying. Montreal has a lot of organizational depth at the prospect level but relatively little high end elite talent, so taking some shots at potential difference makers makes sense.

However, we have to keep in mind (going back to that study Scott Cullen did for TSN a couple years ago) that only between a quarter and a third (depending how you define what having a NHL career means) of second round picks manage to become NHLers. So sometimes it might not be a terrible idea to target a safe pick if you trust your scouts can actually identify one.

This year Montreal has three seconds. What if Timmins swings for the fences with at #39 and #40 with let’s say, Poirier and Jarventie, who I see both as having really high ceilings but also bust potential given how they go solo a lot (which could be no big deal long-term but it could also be a red flag of selfishness and/or relatively low hockey IQ).

If I have got Poirier and Jarventie in the fold, then I may be inclined to take a safer pick at the end of the second round.

In the time that Bergevin and Timmins have been working together, Montreal has been kind of all over the place philosophically at the draft table. Focusing just on the second round, there have been home run swings (Fucale, Ikonen) that have gone very badly and there have been plenty of safe picks predicated on NHL size/skating (Olafsson, De la Rose) that are kind of meh.

So far Lehkonen is the best second pick that Timmins/Bergevin made and he is basically a nice third line guy who will play 10-12 years in the league. The last two drafts are too recent to judge, though it looks like Romanov will soon take the mantle of being the best second rounder of their tenure. Struble also intrigues me and despite the fact he went more or less where he was projected in some rankings, I would have to classify him as a home run swing because being a man-child trucking scrawny boys in high school hockey makes it hard to project with any certainty what he will be like down the road.

[seventeen]

I think we should apply to Molson to take over from MB. We'd even do the job for 10% less than MB (in our first contract). Such sensible steps.

[GNick99]

Jul 31, 2020 14:50:28 GMT -5 seventeen said:

I think we should apply to Molson to take over from MB. We'd even do the job for 10% less than MB (in our first contract). Such sensible steps.

Doubt he is going to rock the boat much. Habs been turning crazy profits while going thru a rebuildng phrase. Doubt that has been done in pro sports before? Not sure though, maybe forgetting about another team. Bergevin acquired a lot of good young talent, Suzuki, Koktaniemi, Domi, etc...

[GNick99]

I see in my crystal ball Lafreniere, Evanglista, Cormier, Neiderbach with our first 4 picks

[GNick99]

Jul 30, 2020 21:37:44 GMT -5 folatre said:

I was watching the Boston v. Columbus and Liam Foudy looked good out there. I am not sure the younger brother, Jean-Luc is quite as balanced overall as hockey player, but if he is available with the last second round pick that Montreal possesses this year he could be excellent business in that range. He is a burner and the bloodlines and examples of hard work are likely things that he inherited from his mother and father.

Foudy wasted pick to me. No hands. Those kind of guys usually easily attainable. Example be Byron.

Jarvis chance he goes in top 9. According to teams picking

[folatre]

I hear you, Gnick. But I am not comparing Foudy to Jarvis. Based on a lot of rankings (McKenzie, The Hockey News, McKeen's, Costentino), a kid like Foudy would actually be pretty solid business at #60 overall. Yes, there will be kids available in the #60 range who represent higher reward (higher risk) than Foudy and it is legitimate to say well let's take one of those talents. In the case of having three second rounders, I just think that strategically trying to make one safer pick of three makes sense. I want to go after high ceiling kids at #39 and #40.

[GNick99]

Aug 2, 2020 10:00:44 GMT -5 folatre said:

I hear you, Gnick. But I am not comparing Foudy to Jarvis. Based on a lot of rankings (McKenzie, The Hockey News, McKeen's, Costentino), a kid like Foudy would actually be pretty solid business at #60 overall. Yes, there will be kids available in the #60 range who represent higher reward (higher risk) than Foudy and it is legitimate to say well let's take one of those talents. In the case of having three second rounders, I just think that strategically trying to make one safer pick of three makes sense. I want to go after high ceiling kids at #39 and #40.

I would take a Flyer on a Pashin or Niederbach type before Foudy. I know slim chance they make it, but high end skill.

Jarvis I have been thinking on taking at 9.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

... just a friendly reminder ...

[folatre]

If Montreal is not in the Lottery, then I cannot even stomach watching it. Probably the Rangers or the Penguins will luck out.

Obviously I cannot fault Price and the boys for playing hockey to win. But for the organization the opportunity cost of getting through the play-in is going to be a steep price to pay.

And to top it all off, Chicago's second round pick could be falling eight slots.

[frozone]

Aug 6, 2020 13:19:48 GMT -5 folatre said:

If Montreal is not in the Lottery, then I cannot even stomach watching it. Probably the Rangers or the Penguins will luck out.

Obviously I cannot fault Price and the boys for playing hockey to win. But for the organization the opportunity cost of getting through the play-in is going to be a steep price to pay.

And to top it all off, Chicago's second round pick could be falling eight slots.

Agreed. Losing our chance at the #1 pick will be painful.

That being said, I'm not too concerned about the difference between #9 and #16. Sure, it will hurt in the short term, but my expectations for the #9 pick are not especially high. We need an offensive driver like Lafreniere, not the next Nikolaj Ehlers. And at #9 or #16, chances are we'll be drafting a complementary player. The main difference is that we'll have unreasonable expectations for the #9 pick .

[folatre]

There will be a kid picked in the teens this year (like many years) that matures into an NHL stud. But based on where most of the prime rankings gurus seem to be drawing the "tiers" in this draft, it looks quite a bit easier to pick a difference maker at #9 than #16.

The forever potential 'what if' regarding Lafreniere is not going to be fun. And the irritation of the second round is obviously a lesser pain to deal with but nevertheless picking #47 and #48 instead of #39 and #40 kind of smarts too.

[NWTHabsFan]

Aug 6, 2020 19:16:38 GMT -5 folatre said:

The forever potential 'what if' regarding Lafreniere is not going to be fun. And the irritation of the second round is obviously a lesser pain to deal with but nevertheless picking #47 and #48 instead of #39 and #40 kind of smarts too.

Yuppers. A lot can change between now and Sunday, but right now our draft is leaking air big time with all those picks dropping 8 spots.

And the teams that could be in the Laff sweepstakes right now is enough to make my stomach turn.

The way this is all trending is why so many thought this convoluted two tiered draft thing was a disaster waiting to happen.

[GNick99]

Aug 6, 2020 13:19:48 GMT -5 folatre said:

If Montreal is not in the Lottery, then I cannot even stomach watching it. Probably the Rangers or the Penguins will luck out.

Obviously I cannot fault Price and the boys for playing hockey to win. But for the organization the opportunity cost of getting through the play-in is going to be a steep price to pay.

And to top it all off, Chicago's second round pick could be falling eight slots.

I won't be watching neither. Many on here been thrilled to get Lapierre with our first pick at start of year. A few other names available mid first round Amirov, Schenider or Holloway.

[Tankdriver]

Well all that prep you guys were doing for pick 8 or 9 is out the window....time to prepare for 16....

[folatre]

Man, I hope Lafreniere ends up in the Western Conference (50 percent probability). And among the Western possibilities, I would like to see either Winnipeg or Minnesota get him, two good genuine hockey markets. Nashville, I guess I could care less. Edmonton or Chicago would not be great.

But the way things are shaping up everyone in the East with a shot would make me vomit (maybe except Columbus). Florida is a sham of a market and organization. The Rangers and the Penguins would piss me off seriously. And God help if he goes to the frickin' Leafs, I cannot even describe how disgusted I would be.

[NWTHabsFan]

Aug 7, 2020 17:38:32 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

Well all that prep you guys were doing for pick 8 or 9 is out the window....time to prepare for 16....

And all the other picks that we now drop 8 spots...and there are a lot.

A new project until October I guess. A shame to see a watering down of so many of our picks, but that is in the rear view mirror now. A bunch of newbies to research. Many of the guys are not new as there are still tiers, but we will miss on a number of guys that now will be gone when we draft.

Off we go.

[Tankdriver]

I thought it was just the first round that got shuffled...but you probably are right. Even the blackhawk pick drops too.

Hope Winnipeg gets Laf. He was originally picked with their ball.

[folatre]

Regarding Lafreniere, it was very unlikely he would have been a Hab Monday evening. But to frame things a slightly difference light, a 12.5 percent chance at picking first overall would have been the best odds Montreal ever held in the lottery era. In any normal season, Montreal would need to produce a prodigious level of awfulness to secure better odds than that. In fact, it would require finishing 30th or 31st in the league. Bergevin’s roster architecture has mastered bottom 10 finishes (three of them in the last five seasons) but he draws the line at being merely bad and never commits to being terrible, jeje.

I am not sure how much the lack of CHL playoffs, the combine, and international tournaments will create chaos in the first 20 or so picks in the draft. However, I believe it could lead to teams having very different orderings of players as you get to the bottom of the first round and beyond.

A couple of thoughts on picking #16, at #9 Montreal would have likely grabbed a sniper, likely Holtz or Quinn. I am not saying those two kids are can’t miss prospects but having one of them in the fold would have been like an insurance policy in case Caufield turns out to be less than surefire top six winger. Without a Holtz or a Quinn coming into the organization, the necessity that Caufield works out really becomes even more imperious.

[Skilly]

Aug 7, 2020 22:45:39 GMT -5 Tankdriver said:

I thought it was just the first round that got shuffled...but you probably are right. Even the blackhawk pick drops too.

Hope Winnipeg gets Laf. He was originally picked with their ball.

That’s how it should go. It should just be given to Winnipeg since they lost

EDIT: Or instead of putting in the balls of every qualifying team, they just put in one ball , call it “Lottery 2” ball. That ball would have the same odds as the #8 pick in normal years. When that ball is drawn, no matter where, the qualifying teams that lose go into a second draft for that pick.

[folatre]

I am not sure that I can stomach watching it live tomorrow evening. But here is my list of where I hope Lanfreniere lands:

1. Winnipeg – good hockey market, knowledgeable fans

2. Minnesota – ditto above

3. Nashville – they seem like they have a half-way decent roster, so maybe he helps get them back into serious contention; whatever, they are in the West so who cares

4. Florida – totally a joke of a market and a pitiful organization; would rather him not be in the Atlantic division but Lafreniere in Florida with the cost cutting they will be undertaking does not worry too much

5. Edmonton – just no, how many frickin’ first overall picks does this organization luck into?

6. New York – it disturbs me that the Rangers could add another huge young piece in their rebuild, it disturbs me even more how much the league would probably smile at this outcome

7. Pittsburgh – this is pretty gross if they hit the jackpot yet again, seemingly in every moment where a generational change is taking place in their roster, just in time to forge forward

8. Toronto – words cannot describe how pissed I will be if the frickin’ Leafs get rewarded for delivering a huge choke job to their demented fan base

[BadCompany]

If I'm not mistaken, even if we beat Philadelphia we're still locked into the 16th overall. We'd have to make it to the Conference Finals for our draft position to change.

So there is that at least.

I guess it all depends on how things play out, but right now I'm leaning towards Dylan Holloway. He's the one thing we lack in our prospect pool, which is a tough-but-skilled, power forward type. We got a lot of smaller, skilled guys, and a lot of defensemen, but nobody with size and strength. Of course offensive upside is a question, but if it wasn't he wouldn't be (possibly) available at 16. Scott Wheeler in the Athletic really likes him, Corey Pronman not so much. Holloway fits the "strong and athletic" type that Timmins seems to like (Subban, Romanov, Struble), though typically he swings for those guys in the later rounds.

The other option is to trade the pick. Would you do the 16th overall for Jesse Puljujarvi? I think the Oilers would leap all over that.

[folatre]

Puljujarvi may yet become a solid NHL player in the future, but I am skeptical about his hockey IQ and his overall commitment. For me it would be too risky to give up a first rounder for him.

I saw Holloway play once in person and a handful of games on tv, he is a nice prospect. He is a big kid who skates very well and he competes hard and pays attention to the finer details of the game. Granato had him playing centre in most of the games I saw (I think Turcotte may have been injured), though in fairness he might be better suited to play wing. Holloway protects the puck very well and even as a first-year player his shot looked above average by NCAA standards. I am just not sure he has a lot of offensive creativity or super high-end skill. I think he would be safe pick but I honestly I would rather take a potential difference maker like Lapierre if his medical reports are not problematic.

[Habs_fan_in_LA]

Aug 10, 2020 9:35:01 GMT -5 BadCompany said:

If I'm not mistaken, even if we beat Philadelphia we're still locked into the 16th overall. We'd have to make it to the Conference Finals for our draft position to change.

So there is that at least.

I guess it all depends on how things play out, but right now I'm leaning towards Dylan Holloway. He's the one thing we lack in our prospect pool, which is a tough-but-skilled, power forward type. We got a lot of smaller, skilled guys, and a lot of defensemen, but nobody with size and strength. Of course offensive upside is a question, but if it wasn't he wouldn't be (possibly) available at 16. Scott Wheeler in the Athletic really likes him, Corey Pronman not so much. Holloway fits the "strong and athletic" type that Timmins seems to like (Subban, Romanov, Struble), though typically he swings for those guys in the later rounds.

The other option is to trade the pick. Would you do the 16th overall for Jesse Puljujarvi? I think the Oilers would leap all over that.

Puljujarvi reminds me too much of Galchenyuk. The talent is there but the commitment and effort are lacking (Drouin). We are built around effort, speed and backchecking. Ill take speed and skating for a lunchpail crowd These guys shut down talent.

[frozone]

I'm also on the Holloway bandwagon but I'm worried that he won't be available at 16. He just has so many tools and has lacked the opportunity as a freshman to be a go to offensive guy. If he was in junior, he'd be in the top 10 imo. I anticipate he's the type of prospect that NHL scouts will be high on since he projects so well.

To be quite honest, despite the glowing reviews on this year's top 10, they don't project to the NHL especially well imo. And I'm not just talking about Perfetti and Rossi's size. Don't get me wrong, Drysdale would be a great piece to add, but I can't find any evidence of him being a powerplay QB and offensive driver. Ditto with Sanderson. Again, I don't want to take anything away from these prospects, but I expect a little more from such a highly touted top 10. The way I see it, the big drop off in this draft is after the top 3.

[Willie Dog]

An american team will win the sham lottery... I say the Rangers... Bettman wants a strong New York team... Laffy, Zibanejad and Kakko... pretty strong first line

[seventeen]

I'm calling Pittsburgh. Aging stars. Pens need another high profile player. What's that? You're saying I'm suggesting the lottery is rigged? Well it's either that or Pittsburgh's choice would have been Montreals and we just gave up Lafreniere for 4 more 'playoff' games.

[folatre]

Well, that is gross. I guess the only scenarios that would have sickened me more would have been Pittsburgh or Toronto.

[jkr]

Aug 10, 2020 15:58:34 GMT -5 Willie Dog said:

An american team will win the sham lottery... I say the Rangers... Bettman wants a strong New York team... Laffy, Zibanejad and Kakko... pretty strong first line

You were right