Ukraine

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Apr 1, 2022 18:11:38 GMT -5 Cranky said:

If ANYONE thought that we can't get Hitler and NAZI Germany reboot, think again.

I wasn't being dramatic when I said that this is 1938....

The public’s endorsement of the war lacks the patriotic groundswell that greeted the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But polls released this week by Russia’s most respected independent pollster, Levada, showed Mr. Putin’s approval rating hitting 83 percent, up from 69 percent in January. Eighty-one percent said they supported the war, describing the need to protect Russian speakers as its primary justification.

More

www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/world/europe/russia-putin-support-ukraine.html

No way I'd trust the polling results from a police state, and that's how I see Russia right now ... I posted a video a while back where a Russian journalist stated that the Russia she's known, is gone (6:10) ... freedom of the press is a thing of the past, and will probably be the same until Putin's reign comes to an end ... she also stated that, despite Russia calling itself a democracy, it never was (hence, my "police state" reference) before ... the whole interview is informative ...

Cheers.

[Cranky]

An in depth look at Germany economic enabling of Putin.

Before I get into the article, what I'm finding is an amazing realpolitic view from leftist publications. Article after article without any rose colored "give peace a chance" that I expected. Meanwhile the right has been a bit muted.

Many on the left have taken this as "proof" that the right is pro Putin. Bullcrap. What is manifesting here is that any support of the war is support of Biden, which sounds stupid but it's part of the uber divisive US politics. To the right, Bidens domestic policies are far more of a "threat" then another war in Europe. If Trump was in power and took the exact same e actions, they right would be lining up to sign every missile. Don't mistake that as "I love Trump" but far more of "I am right wing, they are left wing". Don't kid yourself, the left is exactly the same way there.

Make no mistake that if Trump was in power, the same publication that have taken hard line against Russia would turn on a dime and call Trump a war monger, leading the world to WW3. From following the US media the last several years, there isn't a shred of doubt how blind and bias the media have become. Even in times when everybody should be united.

Upon reflection, maybe it's best that Biden is in power and has to do what he has to do, without half of America and garbage media screaming "war monger".

This is no different then several years ago when a true blue Marxist party won the Greek elections. They had to agree and swallow on severe social cuts and economic realities that if it was a right wing government, the violant left led by anarchist would burn down Greece to a cinder. But since their own party brought the changes, it was a muted howl. Even funnier was that the Marxist ENCOURAGED protest against them. They were afraid that their followers were defeated by the action of their own party. They were. So much so that when a right wing party won the elections after them, no major street wars have been fought.

So now the article. On several post, I let my severe lack of love for Germany manifest itself. It was and is about their blind lust for cheap energy and ignoring the obvious danger of Putin. It's almost to the point of once again, claiming amnesia to who they are excusing. History on a tiny bit of repeat. Tiny. But repeat it is. Particularly from the elite.

Putin’s useful German idiots

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a repudiation of a whole generation of German politicians from across the spectrum.

BERLIN — Germany is no stranger to the wrong side of history.

That’s why it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Berlin spent the past 16 years with its feet firmly planted on the wrong side of the divide over how to handle Russia.

Less predictable was the speed with which Germany abandoned its stance toward Moscow in recent weeks by halting the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, sending arms to Ukraine, embracing sanctions against Russia, and even announcing it would start pumping substantial sums into its own army.

In other words, it agreed almost overnight to do everything the U.S. and other allies had been prodding it to do for years. Berlin even ginned up a hashtag-ready motto for the shift: Zeitenwende, i.e. the dawn of a new era.

Weeks later, it’s become clear that what German leaders are really trying to say is: ‘Let’s move on.’

A lot more and very interesting...

www.politico.eu/article/putin-merkel-germany-scholz-foreign-policy-ukraine-war-invasion-nord-stream-2/

[Cranky]

Apr 3, 2022 17:10:08 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Apr 1, 2022 18:11:38 GMT -5 Cranky said:

If ANYONE thought that we can't get Hitler and NAZI Germany reboot, think again.

I wasn't being dramatic when I said that this is 1938....

No way I'd trust the polling results from a police state, and that's how I see Russia right now ... I posted a video a while back where a Russian journalist stated that the Russia she's known, is gone (6:10) ... freedom of the press is a thing of the past, and will probably be the same until Putin's reign comes to an end ... she also stated that, despite Russia calling itself a democracy, it never was (hence, my "police state" reference) before ... the whole interview is informative ...

Cheers.

Agree and disagree with her...and to me, she has a bit of a liberal "there is hope" in her.

While there is no doubt it is a police state, Russian people have a long history of feeling like second class world citizens, put down by the evil west.

From Stalin on forward, the narrative was that the West won't stop until there is no Russia. The entire cold war was one giant education camp of the West hates us. It was muted when the Berlin wall fell and Russians thought that they will be dancing on easy street, brought there by BMW and Mercedes. Nothing of the sort happen because the elite is eating up 90% of the Russian wealth.

Of course, brother Putin made sure to tap into and explode the persecution complex by blaming the West for the lack of Russian masses enjoying western lifestyles. Aneasy sell to the vast majority who barely scrape by. With this war, Putin is deep diving into Russian nationalism and above mentioned grievance. The masses are blindingly approving this and the 83% figure sounds pretty accurate.

In fact, look at Gernany. Today the had thousands of Russians IN GERMANY celebrating Russian war and "victories". IN GERMANY.

From perceived persecution to grievance to anger to war......Hitler did it. Putin is doing it.

[Cranky]

Twitter

It put down twitter repeatedly because I want no part in the cancel culture or minute by minute tweets about ones bowl movements or the shallowness of the content.

But....

There is no doubt how far one's voice can go. I looked at some of my tweet stats and some are getting 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 views. That's a lot of eyeballs without even trying, other the to put together a relevant comment.

A bit of discomfort for me is why are a lot of people looking at my history or want to follow me. It's organized stalking. I remove "followers" other then Dis or who I recognize.

Of course my biggest criticism of twitter still stands. It's home to one liners and single sentence thoughts. Fine for pot shots at Kardasians and slap happy actors, but some subjects that need book length discussions are completely obliterated by bottom gas one liners.

Does twitter make a difference. Maybe. But it does more harm in that it's training the masses into becoming one liner clapping seals. Our world is far more complex then that.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Apr 3, 2022 17:20:36 GMT -5 Cranky said:

An in depth look at Germany economic enabling of Putin.
So now the article. On several post, I let my severe lack of love for Germany manifest itself. It was and is about their blind lust for cheap energy and ignoring the obvious danger of Putin. It's almost to the point of once again, claiming amnesia to who they are excusing. History on a tiny bit of repeat. Tiny. But repeat it is. Particularly from the elite.

Putin’s useful German idiots

A very useful article that describes that enabling process, and where it started ... the article ends by citing Chancellor Willy Brandt's initiatives to ending the Cold War, and I only know of him now because of the article ... someone else I'll have to look up when time permits ...

Cheers.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Apr 3, 2022 18:13:22 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Twitter

It put down twitter repeatedly because I want no part in the cancel culture or minute by minute tweets about ones bowl movements or the shallowness of the content.

But....

There is no doubt how far one's voice can go. I looked at some of my tweet stats and some are getting 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 views. That's a lot of eyeballs without even trying, other the to put together a relevant comment.

A bit of discomfort for me is why are a lot of people looking at my history or want to follow me. It's organized stalking. I remove "followers" other then Dis or who I recognize.

Of course my biggest criticism of twitter still stands. It's home to one liners and single sentence thoughts. Fine for pot shots at Kardasians and slap happy actors, but some subjects that need book length discussions are completely obliterated by bottom gas one liners.

Does twitter make a difference. Maybe. But it does more harm in that it's training the masses into becoming one liner clapping seals. Our world is far more complex then that.

There's a feature in your profile settings where you can privatize your account ... people will need your authorization to read or contribute to your tweets ... any follow requests, and tweets of any kind, are kept in cue and vetted by yourself ... privatized accounts are identified with an icon of a lock beside the name ...

Cheers.

[Cranky]

Apr 3, 2022 19:49:59 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

Apr 3, 2022 18:13:22 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Twitter

It put down twitter repeatedly because I want no part in the cancel culture or minute by minute tweets about ones bowl movements or the shallowness of the content.

But....

There is no doubt how far one's voice can go. I looked at some of my tweet stats and some are getting 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 views. That's a lot of eyeballs without even trying, other the to put together a relevant comment.

A bit of discomfort for me is why are a lot of people looking at my history or want to follow me. It's organized stalking. I remove "followers" other then Dis or who I recognize.

Of course my biggest criticism of twitter still stands. It's home to one liners and single sentence thoughts. Fine for pot shots at Kardasians and slap happy actors, but some subjects that need book length discussions are completely obliterated by bottom gas one liners.

Does twitter make a difference. Maybe. But it does more harm in that it's training the masses into becoming one liner clapping seals. Our world is far more complex then that.

There's a feature in your profile settings where you can privatize your account ... people will need your authorization to read or contribute to your tweets ... any follow requests, and tweets of any kind, are kept in cue and vetted by yourself ... privatized accounts are identified with an icon of a lock beside the name ...

Cheers.

I looked at that but it cuts down to who sees my tweets. Down to 3 people inluding yourself. I love you brother but you're missing those fancy gold stripes!

I'm not going to be able to engage the people who I want to talk too on this war. People like Mick Ryan and John Spencer. Others who are experts on Russian military. Look into who I'm following.

The rest, well, the Habs have exercised my delete finger....

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Apr 3, 2022 17:45:32 GMT -5 Cranky said:

Apr 3, 2022 17:10:08 GMT -5 Disgruntled70sHab said:

No way I'd trust the polling results from a police state, and that's how I see Russia right now ... I posted a video a while back where a Russian journalist stated that the Russia she's known, is gone (6:10) ... freedom of the press is a thing of the past, and will probably be the same until Putin's reign comes to an end ... she also stated that, despite Russia calling itself a democracy, it never was (hence, my "police state" reference) before ... the whole interview is informative ...

Cheers.

Agree and disagree with her...and to me, she has a bit of a liberal "there is hope" in her.

It kind of suggests to me that she's not giving up ...

While there is no doubt it is a police state ... Of course, brother Putin made sure to tap into and explode the persecution complex by blaming the West for the lack of Russian masses enjoying western lifestyles. An easy sell to the vast majority who barely scrape by. With this war, Putin is deep diving into Russian nationalism and above mentioned grievance. The masses are blindingly approving this and the 83% figure sounds pretty accurate.

A few years ago, I was following a few of these young, Russian International Chess Grandmasters on Twitter, but I had to drop them because of their hardcore support of Putin ... they're the Russian equivalent of hardcore Trumpists ... one, in particular, I dropped was, Sergey Karjakin, who has been suspended by FIDE for his public support for the invasion of Ukrainian ... still, I think it might have been a story on "60 Minutes: Australia" where I first heard of the division in the Russian people ... most of Putin's support is with the older generation (65+), while a very large portion of the younger generations, do not favour war at all ... Putin has squashed any and all free speech and, as we've been discussing, he controls the information that his people get, which also includes polling results ... you're right insomuch as, there are a lot of Russians who support the war, and support Putin; however, we'll probably never see accurate numbers on that given who's vetting the info ...

Cheers.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

[jkr]

I just read this article on the Hungarian election. I was not sure if this was the place for it but I thought it might be of interest because Orban is a an authoritarian ally of Putin who ran on a platform of keeping Hungary out of the war in Ukraine.

I know there are people on this board who understand these things better than I - but why do people continue to vote for someone that wants to limit their freedoms?


www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/europe/hungary-election-results-viktor-orban-intl/index.html

[Disgruntled70sHab]

[Disgruntled70sHab]

Apr 4, 2022 8:59:05 GMT -5 jkr said:

I just read this article on the Hungarian election. I was not sure if this was the place for it but I thought it might be of interest because Orban is a an authoritarian ally of Putin who ran on a platform of keeping Hungary out of the war in Ukraine.

I know there are people on this board who understand these things better than I - but why do people continue to vote for someone that wants to limit their freedoms?


www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/europe/hungary-election-results-viktor-orban-intl/index.html

Good article ... Hungary might be an authoritarian government, but they opened their borders to getting people out of the war zone that includes 350,000 Ukrainian refugees ... my concern is, though, keeping Hungary out of the war was an election platform, what happens to these refugees should Orban decide to enter the war on Russia's side ... heck, what would happen to Orban should he flip on his election promise ... edit: what it also suggests to me is that, Zelenskyy is merely a Liberal "opponent" to Orban, and not the Nazi fascist Putin makes him out to be ...

Cheers.

[Disgruntled70sHab]

..."Russia is a dictatorship"...

[Cranky]

I can't put effen words to this...

[Cranky]

ALWAYS know what your foe/enemy thinks and what I'm reading here, the Russians are fed a toxic that is so powerful that it may warrant elimination more then understanding. See NAZIs, see imperial Japan...

The line of thinking that Ukrainians are "nazis" and they need eliminated, holocaust level of elimination. Anything done to them is OK. See Bucha.

This is far beyond Putin and I'm sorry, I don't buy that the Russian masses aren't swallowing and embracing this. Once again, this is the EXACT same situation as WW2 when after the allies leveled Germany, there was wholesale amnesia from the previously goosesteppjng masses about Nazi support and even bitterness that they "didn't deserve this". Obviously those ovens and war machine built itself.

1938......

[Cranky]

Apr 4, 2022 8:59:05 GMT -5 jkr said:

I just read this article on the Hungarian election. I was not sure if this was the place for it but I thought it might be of interest because Orban is a an authoritarian ally of Putin who ran on a platform of keeping Hungary out of the war in Ukraine.

I know there are people on this board who understand these things better than I - but why do people continue to vote for someone that wants to limit their freedoms?


www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/europe/hungary-election-results-viktor-orban-intl/index.html

Not what it looks like...

First of all, it's CNN which is either the last or the second last source of earth for any objective view. They are hard core left and don't bother to hide it. They Bizzaro World cousin of Fox news.

Orban is authoritarian whenever he can be but no allie of Russia. Hungary voted for every EU sanction but just like Germany, they put their self interests of cheap energy ahead of sanctions.

Of course Russian propaganda is about 3 million times smarter then CNN and the like by spouting Hungary is a "friend", which the garbage western media then swallow and spit "see, we are right, Hungary bad". The entire purpose of the Russian "friend" narrative is to create anger against Hungary...and that serves at the least, to split the EU, at worst, drive it into Russian world.

The "anti-democratic" narrative is mostly based that "democracy" now is sold by the leftist media not as a voting system, but as a social values system. If you are not pro-gay, pro-enviroment, pro-immigrant, then you are "un-democratic". Sorry, I don't buy it. Democracy is what it is, a system of government based on freely voted representation. All else is bullceap. Of course there are variances and abuses, but it doesn't change the meaning of the word. Obviously it gets subverted to where it's no longer "freely voted representation", but at no point is it about social beliefs.

Zelenski beef with Orban and Hungary is that they were not so embracing of supplying Ukraine with arms, which Hungary has still a huge supply of Soviet era ones and the above spat about energy self interest. So has Germany and a lot of other EU countries. I understand and support Zelenski, but his justifiable desperation is lashing out in...desperation. By that metric, Canada should also be a target because we talk a good game but scarcely put in any big contribution to his field needs. Zelensky is lucky we don't have Prime Minister Singh making decisions otherwise he would be getting a lot of bandaids and supporting tweets.

As for the Ukrainian refugees, they are fine and welcomed. They adamantly don't want Muslim refugees and of course, don't want the EU to force them to take them. Same for Poland and other EU countries. Which of course triggers the mostly leftist media into overdrive accusations of racism, "un-democratic" and "Putins friends".

In fact, the EU has frozen funds based on "democratic shortcommings" which is mostly about taking Muslim refugees or else, no money for Hungary. Very "democratic" of the EU to demand "democracy on our terms" or else. Given that Hungary is not doing well economically, you can see where this is going. Basically the old truism of "bombing them until they love us" is manifesting in "starve them of funds until they love and obay". Which of course is DRIVING Orban and Hungary into the the self serving Russian orbit. Apparently the EU has blinders on their actions....but lots of actions with blinders.

I'm not supporting Orban in the least, but neither do I support the mostly leftist medias vilification of anything that does not conform to their social narrative. Nor the EU narrative of forcing and weaponizing compliance. Like everything, there are shades of gray. And when it comes to realpolitic, it's nothing less then built on shades of gray.

[Willie Dog]

Apr 4, 2022 14:53:10 GMT -5 Cranky said:

I can't put effen words to this...

F me...

[Cranky]

Has anybody heard of Sudeteland? Read up on it in the link below before reading the the Post article...

Perfectly normal course of Western action....appease Hitler v2 and everything will be fine.

Remember 1938....

What is going on in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?

Three days after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the details are beginning to emerge. According to people who were privy to details about the meeting, the current situation is that Russia has offered a "final" version of its offer to end the crisis, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to accept or decline.

..

Zelensky can fortify Ukraine's independence but will have to pay a heavy price, the sources said. Assumptions are that he will be forced to give up the contested Donbas region, officially recognize the pro-Russian dissidents in Ukraine, pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, shrink his army and declare neutrality. If he declines the proposal, the outcome may be terrible: thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die and there is a high probability that his country will completely lose its independence.

More..

m.jpost.com/international/article-700677?twclid=11511102782366961679

www.theholocaustexplained.org/life-in-nazi-occupied-europe/foreign-policy-and-the-road-to-war/occupation-of-the-sudetenland/

[Cranky]

I'm having a running "battle" with a general. He thinks in terms of military that Russia can't win.

I think in terms of hunger and scorched earth. Russia will win a huge chunk of Ukraine.

The problem he has is that his world is full of guns and battles. Mine is full of stomachs and devastation.

The Nazis Russians are destroying food warehouse, refineries, fuel depots, never mind razing cities to the ground. Basically all of Ukraine's infrastructure.

I will win this argument and cry about it. The West will have a sad look on it's face for a day, masses rejoice at lower gas prices and....did you hear about the kardasians?

[Cranky]

Right now, we are entering a very dangerous phase.

Biden calling for trials, EU ready to ban Russian oil, war not going Putas way.

Nazis Russia launched missiles at every Ukrainian city a few hours ago. This is NOT a military strategy, this is a clear threat.

Time to call his bluff....because when a bully screams the loudest, that's when he's scared the most.Right now, Puta the Chihuahua is barking really loud.

[Cranky]

This link is the definition of "heavy duty" articles on Ukraine and war. I complain about garbage media and clickbait, well, this comes from the other side and into really DEEP dives.

mobile.twitter.com/WarOnTheRocks

Another one...

www.csis.org/

I have others but they are also deep into right wing politics.

Right now, divisive politics should be taken out back and shot in the head. Three times. Then set on fire. Then buried with braids if garlic. It's existence is fuel to Putas propaganda machine. Mouth dribbles on either side of American divisive politics should duct tape their mouth and fingers. Ditto for Canada.

CNN, CBC, CTV, Fox, etc and every know nothing pundit has to focus on facts and not to flail inanities from their chosen cross.

[jkr]

I read that war on the rocks article last night. Thanks for posting as With info like this, I will have to read it again to be sure I have not missed anything.

Must be an age thing.😀

[Cranky]

Let me know how relevant Canada is in the discussion.

But hey, sometime in the future, maybe by 2030 we will have something more dangerous the armed geese and weaponized walrus. Maybe. Just remember there is no contract signed with supply dates for F-35. On top of that, we need a coordinate strategy and weapons systems for those F-35. Dropping rotten PEI potatoes is not a strategy.

warontherocks.com/2022/04/could-the-arctic-be-a-wedge-between-russia-and-china/

[Cranky]

I just found this and 3 letters....OMG

CHECK IT OUT......

maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

[jkr]

Saw this about Russian oil exports. Discouraging to see places like India actually increasing their imports. And Germany says they will cut out Russian fuel - by the end of the year. Just tell Ukraine to hold on for another 7-8 months.

www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/climate/oil-tankers-russia.html

[Willie Dog]

Apr 6, 2022 8:34:24 GMT -5 jkr said:

Saw this about Russian oil exports. Discouraging to see places like India actually increasing their imports. And Germany says they will cut out Russian fuel - by the end of the year. Just tell Ukraine to hold on for another 7-8 months.

www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/climate/oil-tankers-russia.html

Countries that ignore sanctions should have sanctions put on them

[Willie Dog]

Russian tanks getting blown up

[Willie Dog]

Apr 6, 2022 2:31:37 GMT -5 Cranky said:

I just found this and 3 letters....OMG

CHECK IT OUT......

maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

The destruction of an entire country on display...

[HABsurd]

This mega twitter thread (55 posts with correction addendum) on The Battle of Kyiv might be of interest

I must say that I am impressed by the cleverness of Ukrainian tactics.

[HABsurd]

Apr 4, 2022 8:59:05 GMT -5 jkr said:

I just read this article on the Hungarian election. I was not sure if this was the place for it but I thought it might be of interest because Orban is a an authoritarian ally of Putin who ran on a platform of keeping Hungary out of the war in Ukraine.

I know there are people on this board who understand these things better than I - but why do people continue to vote for someone that wants to limit their freedoms?


www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/europe/hungary-election-results-viktor-orban-intl/index.html

Here is a good analysis.

The Unsinkable Viktor Orban
April 6, 2022, 1:00 a.m. ET

By András Bíró-Nagy

Mr. Bíró-Nagy is a political scientist and the director of Policy Solutions, a Hungarian think tank.

BUDAPEST — Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party just won its fourth consecutive election by a landslide. As was the case four years ago, Mr. Orban’s election was not a fair contest between the Hungarian government and the opposition. Voters could vote for whomever they chose, but the playing field was tilted in favor of the current government, including campaign regulations that favored Fidesz, biased media coverage and a blurring of the line between the ruling political party and the state.

The Hungarian prime minister’s win was due in part to how he protected his economic legitimacy during a cost-of-living crisis by issuing government handouts. He also strengthened his already solid position in rural Hungary. He won the clash of narratives over the war in Ukraine by portraying himself as the guarantor of peace and security, while accusing his challenger, Peter Marki-Zay, and the united opposition of potentially bringing Hungary into war.

The consistent line throughout Mr. Orban’s public policies and communication is the concept of protection — a commitment to halting otherwise rapid changes in the demographic makeup of the country, extending even to cultural transformations and economic shifts. Who or what Mr. Orban thinks Hungarians need to be protected from changes from time to time. Over the past decade, he has fought against migration, the European Union institutions, the U.S.-Hungarian billionaire George Soros, nongovernmental organizations, Western liberals, the I.M.F. and high utility bills, among other enemies.

Protection has been translated by Mr. Orban and his party into the language of family policy and an attack on Hungary’s L.G.B.T.Q. community (see the eventually invalid “Child Protection Referendum,” held on the same day as the parliamentary elections), which suggests that the concept of family is under threat and needs the state’s protection.

In the 2022 election campaign, Fidesz’s most dangerous opponent was the cost-of-living crisis. Several studies done by Policy Solutions, of which I am the director, have shown that by 2021, the government’s parsimonious, socially insensitive handling of the economic effects of the pandemic had made living costs the most serious problem for Hungarians. This has been exacerbated in the past year by a soaring inflation rate, one of the highest in the E.U.

During the campaign, Mr. Orban put in place welfare benefits a few months before the election (income tax rebate for families with children, 13th-month pension, minimum wage increase, exemption from income tax for Hungarians under 25), as well as a price freeze on fuel and some basic food products. The aim of these measures was to dampen the feeling, at least until the elections, that the economy was in a dire situation, and by taking extraordinary economic measures, the Orban government managed to maintain its economic legitimacy in the run-up to the election.

To be competitive against Fidesz, the opposition had two important strategic tasks since the last parliamentary elections in 2018: to unite and overcome the fragmentation that had made Mr. Orban’s earlier challengers unsuccessful and to strengthen the opposition’s support in rural areas. It was already clear from the 2019 municipal elections that if Mr. Orban’s opposition failed to make inroads in rural Hungary, it would be limited to success only in Budapest and a few other cities.

The success of Fidesz in rural districts and its defeat in Budapest show that the country is not only severely divided politically, but also increasingly polarized in geographic and educational terms. Fidesz is highly popular in villages and among the less-educated and older age groups but doesn’t perform as well in cities and among more-educated people and younger age groups.

The highly unequal Hungarian media environment also played a role. It is precisely among demographic groups that are hardest to reach online that Fidesz performed strongest. In terms of traditional media, Mr. Orban’s party dominates, which allows it to effectively communicate its own message to its voters and protect them from opposing views.

The battle to interpret the war in Ukraine shows the power of the Fidesz media empire. It’s a textbook example of how Mr. Orban can quickly give his voters a grip on even the most unpleasant issues.

The Russian invasion pushed to center stage the question of whether Hungary is leaning toward the East or the West and the question of how reliable the country is as a member of the European Union and NATO. Yet Mr. Orban refused to let the opposition’s East vs. West narrative be seen by the whole of Hungarian society as a way of understanding the war issue. He instead transformed himself into a guarantor of peace and security, while accusing the opposition of trying to drag the country into war — a message trumpeted by public media, hundreds of pro-government media outlets and thousands of billboards across the country.

By appealing to society’s craving for security and stability, Mr. Orban ensured that the election did not become a “Putin or Europe?” referendum. According to one poll, 91 percent of opposition voters said the invasion of Ukraine was more “aggression” than “defense” by Russia, compared with merely 44 percent among Fidesz voters. And a quarter of Fidesz voters identify with Russian propaganda.

Despite its fourth election success in a row, it is safe to say that the Orban government cannot expect a honeymoon period. A huge budget hole created by its own measures now awaits it, double-digit inflation is in sight, and European Union funds are not flowing to Hungary because of concerns about corruption and the rule of law. The Orban government is already expecting a significant slowdown in the economy as a result of the war in Ukraine, and the public’s perception of the economy is likely to sour if temporary price-capping measures are rolled back.

The next Orban government will also have to deal with Hungary’s place in the world. Its trademark “Eastern Opening” policy has become a failure, and as its deteriorating relations with its most important ally, the Polish government, show that if Mr. Orban does not change his stance on Russia, it will be impossible to recover. It seems that his reputation could suffer lasting damage from how his government has approached the war in Ukraine.

All in all, the state of the economy and foreign policy make it likely that in spite of another big victory, this will be a difficult term for the Orban government.

András Bíró-Nagy is a political scientist and the director of Policy Solutions, a Hungarian think tank. He is also a senior research fellow at the Center for Social Sciences in Budapest and a member of the board at the Hungarian Political Science Association. His main areas of expertise include Hungarian politics, European integration and radical-right parties.