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Post by seventeen on Feb 19, 2023 21:54:00 GMT -5
For sure, there are no guarantees. Kotkaniemi is a talented kid, but now five years into his career it is apparent that he is basically a third liner on winning teams and a passable second liner on bad teams. Or, he could be another late bloomer. He sure seems to have upped his production lately. I'm not tied into him as I was when he was a Hab, but I still check up occasionally on the box score. |
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Post by Skilly on Feb 20, 2023 20:10:33 GMT -5
And Suzuki went 12th or 13th in his draft year. So there is no question that one side of the coin in terms of maximizing returns via the draft depends on other GMs making suboptimal choices. Though of course, the other side of the coin is your own GM and Head of Amateur Scouting being sufficiently astute so as to see the gems from the semi-precious stones. I saw a stat the other day, that stated that between 2010-2020, Montreal draft picks selected in the 3rd round or later have played 1727 games. Which is good for 22nd out of the 30 teams that drafted in that period. The #1 team had 3525 games. So Montreal better find their gems in rounds 1 or 2. I still get rotted thinking of 2013. |
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Post by Tankdriver on Feb 20, 2023 22:46:50 GMT -5
And Suzuki went 12th or 13th in his draft year. So there is no question that one side of the coin in terms of maximizing returns via the draft depends on other GMs making suboptimal choices. Though of course, the other side of the coin is your own GM and Head of Amateur Scouting being sufficiently astute so as to see the gems from the semi-precious stones. I saw a stat the other day, that stated that between 2010-2020, Montreal draft picks selected in the 3rd round or later have played 1727 games. Which is good for 22nd out of the 30 teams that drafted in that period. The #1 team had 3525 games. So Montreal better find their gems in rounds 1 or 2. I still get rotted thinking of 2013. Yeah, we haven't done well there. I remember one draft where Bergevin kept trading down and was like WTF. We also didn't do too well with 1st or 2nd round either. |
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Post by PTH on Feb 20, 2023 23:18:01 GMT -5
I've seen chatter of Pittsburgh and Las Vegas looking for a goalie, and I can't help but wonder if we might end up making a few deals involving non-obvious targets...
Las Vegas might well give up Nicolas Roy to get a goalie, and if we get Roy then Dvorak can be made available, and I'd think he'd be in demand among contending teams looking for depth at C.
Dadonov seems like he'll be a plan B or C for Dallas or (forgot the other team rumored) whoever might take his deal.
My expectations that Byron, Drouin, Edmundson and Monahan might make this deadline interesting are not going to be fulfilled.
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Post by habsorbed on Feb 21, 2023 3:44:24 GMT -5
I've seen chatter of Pittsburgh and Las Vegas looking for a goalie, and I can't help but wonder if we might end up making a few deals involving non-obvious targets... Las Vegas might well give up Nicolas Roy to get a goalie, and if we get Roy then Dvorak can be made available, and I'd think he'd be in demand among contending teams looking for depth at C. Dadonov seems like he'll be a plan B or C for Dallas or (forgot the other team rumored) whoever might take his deal. My expectations that Byron, Drouin, Edmundson and Monahan might make this deadline interesting are not going to be fulfilled. I hope you're right about getting something for Allen and Dvo as we really don't need them and might as well get assets now. I fear you are right about Byron, Drouin, Eddy and Monahan. One would have hoped we could get something for Eddy and Monahan .A few months ago, someone hoping we could get a 1st or 2nd rounder for Eddy or Monahan would not have been absurd. But right now it will be difficult to get any buyers. I've written off getting anything for Byron or Drouin a long time ago. Byron isn't going to help any team this playoff run. And Drouin hasn't been able to help any team on a playoff run since 2016. Since then he has played a total of 10 playoff games and has more penalty minutes (8) than points (7). No gm is giving up anything to get Drouin. Maybe HuGo should call Brisebois and propose a straight up swap Drouin for Sergachev  |
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Post by PTH on Feb 21, 2023 10:14:42 GMT -5
I've seen chatter of Pittsburgh and Las Vegas looking for a goalie, and I can't help but wonder if we might end up making a few deals involving non-obvious targets... Las Vegas might well give up Nicolas Roy to get a goalie, and if we get Roy then Dvorak can be made available, and I'd think he'd be in demand among contending teams looking for depth at C. Dadonov seems like he'll be a plan B or C for Dallas or (forgot the other team rumored) whoever might take his deal. My expectations that Byron, Drouin, Edmundson and Monahan might make this deadline interesting are not going to be fulfilled. I hope you're right about getting something for Allen and Dvo as we really don't need them and might as well get assets now. Well, we do need a 3d line center and a decent enough goalie, so we can't just sell them off with no plan... but getting a lesser goalie and a guy who is ready for more responsibility at 3C might be a fit. Eddy and Monahan have injury issues.... apparently Monahan still seems uncomfortable on skates and since he doesn't have clear answers for management it's possible they won't even try to re-sign him. Byron is my personal disappointment, a speedy guy who can play all forward positions should've been a hot rental option... |
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Post by folatre on Feb 21, 2023 11:29:16 GMT -5
O'Reilly broke his foot on December 31 and returned to action on February 11. Monahan has been out for 11-12 weeks already, so what was a broken foot has cascaded into an additional lower body problem. Given Monahan's history, I think we can all surmise what that is.
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Post by PTH on Feb 21, 2023 11:36:04 GMT -5
O'Reilly broke his foot on December 31 and returned to action on February 11. Monahan has been out for 11-12 weeks already, so what was a broken foot has cascaded into an additional lower body problem. Given Monahan's history, I think we can all surmise what that is. For sure.... but apparently management hasn't been getting clear answers. In fairness, that's from Renaud Lavoie, and I don't particularly trust him, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty around Monahan's injury. Given how cap space is at a premium for at least one more season, I'd be very cautious offering him any kind of an extension... |
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Post by Andrew on Feb 21, 2023 12:47:01 GMT -5
I don't think this will be a very eventful deadline for the Habs. We'll be selling off depth caliber assets for middle round picks at best, while retaining salary (i.e. Drouin might land a 4th if he sustains his recent productive streak - though a more likely outcome is he gets injured again between now and the deadline). Too bad about all of the injuries, as Monahan and Edmundson would have brought in some better draft capital.
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Post by Tankdriver on Feb 21, 2023 14:55:15 GMT -5
All those damm injuries... A selling off of the remaining parts would of signaled the end of the purge helped fill the treasure chest of pick and next year would of been the rebirth. I still think there is some value on the team if Hughes decides to sell. I think he could find a partner for Savard or Dvorak if he wanted to.
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Post by PTH on Feb 21, 2023 15:01:49 GMT -5
Hughes can make a big splash moving Dvorak, Anderson or Savard, but I think it'll be a 4th for Dadonov and if we're lucky, Drouin for an 8th (yes, I know there are only 7 rounds).
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Post by Willie Dog on Feb 21, 2023 16:19:48 GMT -5
Hughes can make a big splash moving Dvorak, Anderson or Savard, but I think it'll be a 4th for Dadonov and if we're lucky, Drouin for an 8th (yes, I know there are only 7 rounds). I think we'll have to give a 7th for a team to take 'Dire Straits' Drouin off of our hands |
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Post by Cranky on Feb 21, 2023 16:21:33 GMT -5
I'd trade Drouin for an injured used puck. Still no takers...
Monahan is DONE. The only reason to sign him is to give him a better pension.
Dvorak value is lower on contenders then on our team. So expect a lowly late 2nd...if the GM was drunk at the time.
Trading Anderson is trading reality for hope. Very few draft choices develop what we already have in Anderson, but why let that interfere with reality.
Happy Givaway and Delusion day is coming up...
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Post by PTH on Feb 21, 2023 17:05:40 GMT -5
I'd trade Drouin for an injured used puck. Still no takers... Monahan is DONE. The only reason to sign him is to give him a better pension. I'm wondering if anyone would even try Monahan on a conditional basis, simply because not that many teams have the cap room to take him on, even at 50%. I mean... if Boston, TB or Colorado are going to add only one (more) player, will they risk someone who might well never suit up, or be injured to the point he's no longer worth dressing ? |
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Post by folatre on Feb 21, 2023 18:09:38 GMT -5
Unless Monahan wants to sign a team friendly AAV on a one or two year contract, then without hesitation I say goodbye.
PTH, I agree, it is not crazy to think a cap stressed team could trade for Monahan, let him ramp up his skating/rehab and sit on LTIR until the regular season concludes. The thing is not seeing him in NHL game action before the playoffs means that counting on him would be a highly risky proposition. Therefore, I imagine no rational GM would give more than a mid-round pick if they are rolling the dice with the LTIR/cap evasion gambit.
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Post by Cranky on Feb 21, 2023 19:16:26 GMT -5
I'd trade Drouin for an injured used puck. Still no takers... Monahan is DONE. The only reason to sign him is to give him a better pension. I'm wondering if anyone would even try Monahan on a conditional basis, simply because not that many teams have the cap room to take him on, even at 50%. I mean... if Boston, TB or Colorado are going to add only one (more) player, will they risk someone who might well never suit up, or be injured to the point he's no longer worth dressing ? I was hoping we tape him together long enough to get a first...yeah, that failed. Edmy/Savard are the only reasonable commodities we have and that's unlikely to be a first. If it is, then we can call it grand larceny. Take them and RUN... This year turned out to be a blah year. Not bad enough to land a stud, vets too injured to bring back high values, kids injured and missing a lot of their developments. We don't know how to be bad...but certainly turn a profit for Mol$on. That's why my dream is Dubois...which is 230 pounds of hope... *sigh* |
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Post by habsorbed on Feb 22, 2023 2:02:49 GMT -5
I'm wondering if anyone would even try Monahan on a conditional basis, simply because not that many teams have the cap room to take him on, even at 50%. I mean... if Boston, TB or Colorado are going to add only one (more) player, will they risk someone who might well never suit up, or be injured to the point he's no longer worth dressing ? I was hoping we tape him together long enough to get a first...yeah, that failed. Edmy/Savard are the only reasonable commodities we have and that's unlikely to be a first. If it is, then we can call it grand larceny. Take them and RUN... This year turned out to be a blah year. Not bad enough to land a stud, vets too injured to bring back high values, kids injured and missing a lot of their developments. We don't know how to be bad...but certainly turn a profit for Mol$on. That's why my dream is Dubois...which is 230 pounds of hope... *sigh* I agree. What could have been a jackpot year is now turning into a treading water situation with not much progress. We could have had Guhle, Cole, Slafs, and Xman getting valuable TOI to develop but this has been lost on them simply getting older, watching but not gaining that much experience. Meanwhile HuGo's great strategy to dump vets at the deadline has sputtered as a result of injuries and some uninspired play. HuGo's strategy at the beginning of the year was to cash in on Monahan and Eddy for maybe a 1st round pick, and maybe even Hoffman. As well, Hugo was probably hoping for 3rd rounders at least for Dads and Drouin. HuGo may end up with not getting anything for any of these guys. Looking like we will lose Monahan, Dads and Drouin for nothing and be stuck with Hoffman and Eddy's contract for next season. It was a great plan, but injuries have taken over.  |
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Post by halihab on Feb 22, 2023 10:42:51 GMT -5
I'd trade Drouin for an injured used puck. Still no takers... Monahan is DONE. The only reason to sign him is to give him a better pension. Dvorak value is lower on contenders then on our team. So expect a lowly late 2nd...if the GM was drunk at the time. Trading Anderson is trading reality for hope. Very few draft choices develop what we already have in Anderson, but why let that interfere with reality. Happy Givaway and Delusion day is coming up... I agree, No need to trade Anderson. I like the way he plays and trading him for a draft pick is no guarantee we get the same type of player back. Drouin has got to get off the books somehow. Dido with Hoffman. I would keep Edmundson and Savard to groom our young D, which I am very impressed with. RHP looks like a keeper and Ylonen (sp.) gains more confidence with each game. Monty looks like he could be a 1B goaltender. |
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Post by seventeen on Feb 22, 2023 14:29:08 GMT -5
I'd trade Drouin for an injured used puck. Still no takers... Monahan is DONE. The only reason to sign him is to give him a better pension. Dvorak value is lower on contenders then on our team. So expect a lowly late 2nd...if the GM was drunk at the time. Trading Anderson is trading reality for hope. Very few draft choices develop what we already have in Anderson, but why let that interfere with reality. Happy Givaway and Delusion day is coming up... I agree, No need to trade Anderson. I like the way he plays and trading him for a draft pick is no guarantee we get the same type of player back. Drouin has got to get off the books somehow. Dido with Hoffman. I would keep Edmundson and Savard to groom our young D, which I am very impressed with. RHP looks like a keeper and Ylonen (sp.) gains more confidence with each game. Monty looks like he could be a 1B goaltender. Some points...not rebuttals, (ok, maybe 1 rebbutal), call them additional thoughts to the truths expressed above. Dadanov and Dvorak have both been much better recently, which is when you want them to be successful. Dvorak especially has been putting up the points and is looking like a #2/#3 centre in Dach's absence. Dach may be hurt, but I wonder if keeping him out isn't also a play to get Dvorak more ice time. So, anyway, two guys we correctly assumed were worth nothing but bags of pucks might now be worth large sacks of pucks. Anderson, too, has produced more lately and is looking like the power forward many have hoped he would develop into (for a long time). Here's where I digress, however, because explosive, hard hitting, speedy Josh has 22 points in 55 games, or .4 ppg which would equate to 33 points a season. Let's not get into the playoff numbers because they're worse. The optimistic side of that equation is that he scores goals more than he assists (though he probably should score more given how many chances he gets). Still, he's not fooling anyone (I think) and if some GM offers even a late first rounder or an early to mid 2nd, we should start the car. That CAP space would be so useful to us, such as taking on another bad contract to vacuum up another first rounder this year. Obviously, the fit has to be there as the length of Josh's contract is a boat anchor. Harvey-Pinard has been impressive and I think Ylonen will keep getting better. You can't teach that speed or that shot. He's producing at .31 ppg with much less ice time both in quantity and quality than Anderson. Hmmmmmm. Hasn't scored yet this year at the NHL level, but he seems one of those guys who starts slowly and continuously gets better. And then we get to the nitty gritty....the guy who is keeping us from a bottom 5 finish, Sam (Dikembe) Montembeault. Is he your goalie of the future? Is this what he's best at....a backup who plays more than normal? Is this a jump in development or a career year? I don't have a clue as to any of the answers to those questions. I know he is hurting our future, so either trade him, or put him on LTIR. Get him outta there or we will regret it for years to come. I suspect Hughes and Gorton are struggling with that as we speak. |
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Post by Cranky on Feb 22, 2023 15:20:20 GMT -5
Anderson reminds me of Leclair. With us, he was producing whenever he felt like it, but as soon as he was paired with Lindros, they were monsters.
IF we get Dubois, i want to see the results of that before giving up on him. Odds are we get the down low unmovable monsters that can change EVERYTHING about this club.
Top 6 of Anderson, Dach, Dubois, Suzuki, CC and Slaf? Plus whoever takes the next step? We're good for a decade.
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Post by frozone on Feb 22, 2023 15:44:45 GMT -5
Anderson reminds me of Leclair. With us, he was producing whenever he felt like it, but as soon as he was paired with Lindros, they were monsters. IF we get Dubois, i want to see the results of that before giving up on him. Odds are we get the down low unmovable monsters that can change EVERYTHING about this club. Top 6 of Anderson, Dach, Dubois, Suzuki, CC and Slaf? Plus whoever takes the next step? We're good for a decade. I agree with keeping Anderson, unless the return is too good to pass up on. If we get rid of him, I can guarantee that we will just turn around and try to find the next Anderson to add to the lineup, and it will take forever to find him. And it will cost a lot. I wouldn't count on Anderson as a top 6 forward, though. I prefer having him in a middle 6 role with PK time, and moving up only if injuries strike. To me, he's a Paul Byron type of player, which is odd considering Byron barely outweighs Anderson's buffet plate. But it's true - they both hit a lot, are explosive, don't play a cerebral game, and tend to take it to the net off the rush or counter-attack. They are low-talent game-breakers. It's a bit of a waste to play these types of players with Nick Suzuki, but with a Lars Eller type of center, Anderson would still get his 30+ points imo. |
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Post by folatre on Feb 22, 2023 17:15:05 GMT -5
Montreal only has four games before the trade deadline passes, so it seems the reality is Monahan and Edmundson are not on a timetable to prove to teams they are ready to play.
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Post by Cranky on Feb 22, 2023 17:22:49 GMT -5
Anderson reminds me of Leclair. With us, he was producing whenever he felt like it, but as soon as he was paired with Lindros, they were monsters. IF we get Dubois, i want to see the results of that before giving up on him. Odds are we get the down low unmovable monsters that can change EVERYTHING about this club. Top 6 of Anderson, Dach, Dubois, Suzuki, CC and Slaf? Plus whoever takes the next step? We're good for a decade. I agree with keeping Anderson, unless the return is too good to pass up on. If we get rid of him, I can guarantee that we will just turn around and try to find the next Anderson to add to the lineup, and it will take forever to find him. And it will cost a lot. I wouldn't count on Anderson as a top 6 forward, though. I prefer having him in a middle 6 role with PK time, and moving up only if injuries strike. To me, he's a Paul Byron type of player, which is odd considering Byron barely outweighs Anderson's buffet plate. But it's true - they both hit a lot, are explosive, don't play a cerebral game, and tend to take it to the net off the rush or counter-attack. They are low-talent game-breakers. It's a bit of a waste to play these types of players with Nick Suzuki, but with a Lars Eller type of center, Anderson would still get his 30+ points imo. The problem is that we don't have anyone that plays his style of rough and tumble. Dach can, but he's more of skill player then a China shop bull. I've seen Dubois physically destroy the Laffs a few years ago and that is why i think those two are suited for each other. Not Lindros level of mean physicality, but pretty tough. Of course i would trade him for a kings ransome but we will pay twice as much getting another version of him. Dubois...i know i sound like a broken record but that is the hope i hold onto when i delete games. |
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Post by Cranky on Feb 22, 2023 17:25:25 GMT -5
Montreal only has four games before the trade deadline passes, so it seems the reality is Monahan and Edmundson are not on a timetable to prove to teams they are ready to play. With Edmy there can be an escalating clause where it goes up if he plays a certain amount of games or playoffs. On the other hand, he's not that good to make GMs salivate at the trade deadline. |
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Post by folatre on Feb 22, 2023 19:09:02 GMT -5
For sure, a GM may propose to Hughes an escalator clause. But I am not sure I would accept that. Fundamentally Montreal is under no pressure to deal him, so for me lowering the ask because of teams' concerns about his fitness is not necessarily the most logical approach right now. Edmundson can always be traded at the draft, before the holiday trade freeze or at the 2024 trade deadline.
In the case of Monahan I could certainly live with an escalator. I would say yes if, for example, Tampa says we can only offer a fourth round pick but it becomes a third if Monahan plays in 75 percent of the Lightning's playoff games, and if he plays in 75 percent of the games and Tampa Bay wins at least two rounds then it rises to a second round pick.
Frozone, I like the point you make about Byron and Anderson. They are both fast North-South players who lack the vision and passing skills to set up linemates. But they are valuable. And Anderson is even more valuable because he punishes rivals on the forecheck and is in that second layer of guys (Xhekaj and Pezzetta are the first layer of deterrence) on the roster who help police the ice.
Montreal is not facing a cap crisis next season, so if no one wants to step up and pay what management says the price tag is for Anderson then so be it, no problem. The Habs need secondary scoring. The Habs need size. The Habs need guys who like playing in Montreal.
Cranky, Dubois had good chemistry with Anderson in 2022 World Championships. Incidentally, I believe their LW was another robust lad, Max Comtois, who could probably use a change of scenery and would not cost too much to acquire.
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Post by seventeen on Feb 22, 2023 19:34:01 GMT -5
Dubois is a real dilemma. The simple answer, if he truly wants to be a Hab, is to wait for him to be a UFA and get him for free (salary is the same regardless of when he arrives). The risk is great for him, though. If he can find his way to Montreal this summer, an extension for the following year is available and he gets to acclimate himself to the team (even if it's not a contending version yet). He eliminates the injury risk affecting his value by doing so. But we'll have to give up assets to acquire him sooner. The Jets have a number of issues to start dealing with. Both Wheeler's and Schiefele's contracts are up the following year. Wheeler is probably gone but I'm sure they'd like more assets to make up the loss of Wheeler and Dubois, so even though it's his last year, the trade won't be cheap. Are we willing to give up Guhle and prospects like Hutson and Farrell or Roy or Mesar or Beck? No way I trade Guhle or Hutson and while I might toss in the other guys, I like them too. You need depth and those are great depth prospects. Especially when you can always say to Cheveldayoff that you'll just wait until Dubois' contract expires. It comes down to the cost. Our first that year and 2 prospects? Ok because Dubois is good and your centre line is then really set for years to come. But you need that strength up the middle AND that elite Dman.
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Post by PTH on Feb 23, 2023 0:09:25 GMT -5
Monahan, we have to move for whatever we can.
Edmundson.... I'd be very tempted to move him, even in an escalator scenario that doesn't give us as much as we'd hoped, simply because we have 9D signed for next year. Wideman is clearly not a legit option to be a regular, but that's still 8 guys who expect to play. I'd rather avoid drama and get a return while we can, assuming something reasonable is offered... though it would be a tough negotiation since games played could be this year or next, so this could end up being a series of conditions like the Monahan deal.
Anderson... if a great offer is available, we should take it, but he's going to be just as valuable in a year, and at that point with the cap going up, his contract won't seem as long or as high. Our best bet is likely New Jersey if they don't get Meier. His strong game against them won't hurt, for sure.
I kind of wish we'd taken Zaitsev for a 2nd... buying him out will cost 2.8 on the cap next season, and only 800K the year after, so very little impact on the cap for a likely top 40 or top 45 pick.
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Post by PTH on Feb 23, 2023 1:06:30 GMT -5
Dubois is a real dilemma. The simple answer, if he truly wants to be a Hab, is to wait for him to be a UFA and get him for free (salary is the same regardless of when he arrives). Not really, the cap will have risen in 24, and we'd be signing him a year older, meaning he'd be a year older for the final season... just when he's likely to be in decline. I'd make the Jets an offer that incites them to trade him in the summer of 23 rather than wait a year, but not one that fits with the value of a #1 center who we have a contract in place with. Florida's 1st (if it's not too high), a contract like Dvorak or Armia, along with a non-elite prospect, would be my upper bound... but what do I know. It's possible he wants Montreal and will gladly sign, but wouldn't say no to some other cities, so our advantage is hard to gauge. On another board, someone calls this the Trouba factor - Trouba wanted to go to NY and nowhere else, and NYR made an offer that was below value but still attractive enough... That being said, I wonder if Trouba would've considered NJ or NYI, and the risk he might go elsewhere in the NY area might have played a role in that deal. |
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Post by habsorbed on Feb 23, 2023 2:16:05 GMT -5
Dubois for Anderson and maybe Armia.
Dubois comes home.
Jets, get power froward Anderson for good contract length and salary.
Joel goes home, for a year anyway.
This can happen now or at end of season. Jets choice.
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Post by folatre on Feb 23, 2023 10:52:56 GMT -5
Cheveldayoff is potentially the one who is in a tough spot. Yes, he can trade Dubois this summer but the return will be comparatively soft if Dubois and Pat Brisson give the teams trying to trade for him the stiff arm. And let’s face it, Dubois is not your conventional hockey player who is uncomfortable rocking the boat. He rocked the boat in Columbus. He rocked the boat in Winnipeg. So poor Cheveldayoff may have zero luck trying to get Dubois to deviate from whatever Dubois’ plan is.
Hughes has been sniffing around and will continue to do so. Thankfully with the emergence of Dach at centre after Monahan got injured, Montreal is not truly desperate for another top six centre. So if Hughes prefers to follow the wait and see approach, then I do not estimate that is a strategic miscalculation.
Also, I believe there are ways to gather intel about Dubois' thought process without actually tampering. The league cannot stop friends (player to player) from talking.
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