|
|
Post by habsorbed on Feb 27, 2023 0:41:53 GMT -5
Must say, as awful a season as Habs are having, I've enjoyed following the standings to see where Habs and Fla will land in the Bedard lottery. Every night has critical games for placement in the standings. Fla looked to turn things around and make playoffs but all the other wild card teams have/had games in hand - and now Fla is falling. Amen - thanks Ben!
Only team behind us that might catch us is Canucks and I think/hope they will as they do have some talent. Blues and Flyers will try to tank, but realistically they will not be able to out lose the AHL team the Habs are forced to ice.
I'm going for the jackpot! We finish 6th worst behind the Canucks. And Fla gives up when they realize they can't make playoffs and they finish 11th worst. Caps are in 11th now and altho Ovie is getting old, I just don't see Caps giving up just yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Feb 27, 2023 6:50:08 GMT -5
I was looking at this last night.
The Canucks , and Coyotes have schedules where they play 7-8 games against the bottom feeders the rest of the way.
The Blues play 4-5 games against those teams
Montreal has a pretty difficult remaining schedule by contrast. I have them winning at most, 7 more games. But likely 5-6.
All this to say, I think Montreal winds up picking 5th, and Florida winds up picking 9-10th
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Feb 27, 2023 15:43:31 GMT -5
I was looking at this last night. The Canucks , and Coyotes have schedules where they play 7-8 games against the bottom feeders the rest of the way. The Blues play 4-5 games against those teams Montreal has a pretty difficult remaining schedule by contrast. I have them winning at most, 7 more games. But likely 5-6. All this to say, I think Montreal winds up picking 5th, and Florida winds up picking 9-10th Given how crappy the bottom 4 teams have been, picking 5th is a pretty good scenario. Bedard and Fantilli will definitely be off the table, leaving Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Moore and Benson. I'd be content with any one of those guys. Someone better put Bobrov in solitary confinement until after those picks so he doesn't go after Sale or Dvorsky. He can use Florida's pick on one of those or Reinbacher. |
|
|
|
Post by folatre on Feb 27, 2023 17:26:46 GMT -5
There is a lot of hockey yet to play. I see the Habs staying 26th in the league and the Panthers 21st.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Feb 27, 2023 19:27:03 GMT -5
There is a lot of hockey yet to play. I see the Habs staying 26th in the league and the Panthers 21st. As it becomes clearer to the Panthers that they are going to miss the playoffs, they'll lose intensity and I have great hopes they will fall to 23rd as Ottawa and Washington pass them. |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Feb 28, 2023 1:27:59 GMT -5
There is a lot of hockey yet to play. I see the Habs staying 26th in the league and the Panthers 21st. As it becomes clearer to the Panthers that they are going to miss the playoffs, they'll lose intensity and I have great hopes they will fall to 23rd as Ottawa and Washington pass them. Big win by Sens tonight against Wings. I would have preferred a 3 point game but Sens now only 2 points behinds Fla with 2 games in hand. And apparently Barkov is hurt! While the injury Gods injured us by injuring Eddy and Monahan, it looks like they may be helping us elsewhere. And Canucks with huge win over Stars with Demko back in net after 30 games off! |
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Mar 6, 2023 18:54:55 GMT -5
Right now, I'm just hoping one of our two picks ends up in the top 3, after the lottery.
I can't help but notice that if Florida's pick ends up being #1-2-3, the Habs pick around 7 or 8 would be perfect to pick Michkov if he slides due to the Russian factor. With 2 high first rounders, the Habs would be able to take a risk where most other teams picking high wouldn't want to risk walking away empty handed from the first round...
The only concern I'd have is Washington, who are likely to be fine with picking a Russian.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Mar 6, 2023 21:32:20 GMT -5
Right now, I'm just hoping one of our two picks ends up in the top 3, after the lottery. I can't help but notice that if Florida's pick ends up being #1-2-3, the Habs pick around 7 or 8 would be perfect to pick Michkov if he slides due to the Russian factor. With 2 high first rounders, the Habs would be able to take a risk where most other teams picking high wouldn't want to risk walking away empty handed from the first round... The only concern I'd have is Washington, who are likely to be fine with picking a Russian. If Michkov is available at 7 and that's where Habs pick first, they should take him with that pick. He is too good to pass up. Either Habs can buy out his. contract (is that possible?) or just wait till 2026. It's only 3 yearese away and the rest of the team should be pretty good by then. It would be like having a Kaprizov (or better) join the team. |
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Mar 6, 2023 21:42:46 GMT -5
Right now, I'm just hoping one of our two picks ends up in the top 3, after the lottery. I can't help but notice that if Florida's pick ends up being #1-2-3, the Habs pick around 7 or 8 would be perfect to pick Michkov if he slides due to the Russian factor. With 2 high first rounders, the Habs would be able to take a risk where most other teams picking high wouldn't want to risk walking away empty handed from the first round... The only concern I'd have is Washington, who are likely to be fine with picking a Russian. If Michkov is available at 7 and that's where Habs pick first, they should take him with that pick. He is too good to pass up. Either Habs can buy out his. contract (is that possible?) or just wait till 2026. It's only 3 yearese away and the rest of the team should be pretty good by then. It would be like having a Kaprizov (or better) join the team. In theory, yes, but it is always harder to use your very highest pick on someone who is a high-risk pick coming from a country he could very well stay in for the rest of his life. But once you already have a high-end kid, it's easier to go for a high-risk, high-reward pick. |
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Mar 6, 2023 21:44:43 GMT -5
If Michkov is available at 7 and that's where Habs pick first, they should take him with that pick. He is too good to pass up. Either Habs can buy out his. contract (is that possible?) or just wait till 2026. It's only 3 yearese away and the rest of the team should be pretty good by then. It would be like having a Kaprizov (or better) join the team. In theory, yes, but it is always harder to use your very highest pick on someone who is a high-risk pick coming from a country he could very well stay in for the rest of his life. But once you already have a high-end kid, it's easier to go for a high-risk, high-reward pick. So we need the habs pick to jump to 1st and the panthers to jump to 2nd... lol |
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Mar 6, 2023 21:47:45 GMT -5
In theory, yes, but it is always harder to use your very highest pick on someone who is a high-risk pick coming from a country he could very well stay in for the rest of his life. But once you already have a high-end kid, it's easier to go for a high-risk, high-reward pick. So we need the habs pick to jump to 1st and the panthers to jump to 2nd... lol That's the best-case scenario, of course, picking 1-2. I'm fiddling with tankathon and it's surprising how many different results are possible. I'm most intrigued by winning first with Florida's pick, then with ours, giving us 2-3, which I didn't realize was possible. |
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Mar 6, 2023 22:45:07 GMT -5
So we need the habs pick to jump to 1st and the panthers to jump to 2nd... lol That's the best-case scenario, of course, picking 1-2. I'm fiddling with tankathon and it's surprising how many different results are possible. I'm most intrigued by winning first with Florida's pick, then with ours, giving us 2-3, which I didn't realize was possible. I never used the reset button until I saw someone on u tube do it |
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Mar 7, 2023 17:09:35 GMT -5
No more risk taking in the first round. We are in this position BECAUSE of risk taking in the first rounds.
|
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 13, 2023 1:16:13 GMT -5
Yotes are now ahead of us. As well as our AHLers are playing, we ain't amassing points and it should be expected that even the worst teams in the NHL should be able to gain ground on us. We're now 5th worst giving us 8.5% chance for Bedard even without Fla help.
Currently 4 points ahead of Ducks. Having them pass us is probably the 'best' we can hope for - 9.5% chance at Bedard.
Conversely, Fla is right in the mix for playoffs. I'm starting to think that while we will likely get a top 20 pick from Fla, it is unlikely their pick will be lottery eligible.
|
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Mar 13, 2023 9:12:45 GMT -5
Yotes are now ahead of us. As well as our AHLers are playing, we ain't amassing points and it should be expected that even the worst teams in the NHL should be able to gain ground on us. We're now 5th worst giving us 8.5% chance for Bedard even without Fla help. Currently 4 points ahead of Ducks. Having them pass us is probably the 'best' we can hope for - 9.5% chance at Bedard. Conversely, Fla is right in the mix for playoffs. I'm starting to think that while we will likely get a top 20 pick from Fla, it is unlikely their pick will be lottery eligible. Calgary is tied with Florida and has an easier schedule Washington is 2 behind Florida and a little tougher schedule, but Washington can beat some of the tougher teams on any given night Ottawa is 3 behind Florida with the toughest schedule remaining. They are playing well of late though Buffalo is 4 behind with a pretty easy schedule and 2 games in hand Detroit is 4 behind with 2 games in hand and their schedule is similar to Florida *fingers crossed* |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 13, 2023 9:23:10 GMT -5
Yotes are now ahead of us. As well as our AHLers are playing, we ain't amassing points and it should be expected that even the worst teams in the NHL should be able to gain ground on us. We're now 5th worst giving us 8.5% chance for Bedard even without Fla help. Currently 4 points ahead of Ducks. Having them pass us is probably the 'best' we can hope for - 9.5% chance at Bedard. Conversely, Fla is right in the mix for playoffs. I'm starting to think that while we will likely get a top 20 pick from Fla, it is unlikely their pick will be lottery eligible. Calgary is tied with Florida and has an easier schedule Washington is 2 behind Florida and a little tougher schedule, but Washington can beat some of the tougher teams on any given night Ottawa is 3 behind Florida with the toughest schedule remaining. They are playing well of late though Buffalo is 4 behind with a pretty easy schedule and 2 games in hand Detroit is 4 behind with 2 games in hand and their schedule is similar to Florida *fingers crossed* All sounds good and rosy. Here's my not so rosy outlook: Caps are not a very good team anymore and getting older and weaker, maybe have one last gasp but I don't think so. Sens had a good run but their bubble has burst. Young guys aren't up to the challenge at this point. Buff, same as Sens. Wings just don't have the talent down the stretch. Meanwhile, I think Fla are getting stronger and can certainly see the light of a playoff position which looked pretty bleak a few weeks ago. Hope I'm wrong!!! |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 17, 2023 21:39:20 GMT -5
We're now in the 5th worst position: 8.5% chance at Bedard. We'll see if Fla can improve our % but I doubt it. Maybe Bobrowski blows up and they got no backup.
With how bad our current roster is, I think Ducks may get ahead of us, and maybe even the Hawks - our lineup is that bad and both those teams have games in hand. that could move us to 11.5%
Anyway, I'm happy with a pick in the top 5 and hopefully Fla will gives us another in the top 10. Two in the top 10 in this years draft could define our next 10 years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew on Mar 18, 2023 19:58:20 GMT -5
Not getting much help tonight so far. Philly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory giving up the tying goal at 19:59 of the third and losing in OT. The Devils blew a two nothing lead in the third to lose to the panthers.
|
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Mar 18, 2023 22:07:57 GMT -5
The pens are pathetic... and the isles are losing to San freakin Jose... friggin clowns
|
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 19, 2023 2:11:07 GMT -5
This actually was a good night for the tank. Yotes putting some distance between us. Flyers picking up a point so are 2 points ahead of us with a game in hand. I truly believe Ducks can and will catch us so 4th worst is very possible.
As for Fla, I gave up on them being in the Bedard sweepstakes a week ago. My hopes is the won't make the playoffs but they will not add to our chances for Bedard.
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Mar 19, 2023 17:55:01 GMT -5
This actually was a good night for the tank. Yotes putting some distance between us. Flyers picking up a point so are 2 points ahead of us with a game in hand. I truly believe Ducks can and will catch us so 4th worst is very possible. As for Fla, I gave up on them being in the Bedard sweepstakes a week ago. My hopes is the won't make the playoffs but they will not add to our chances for Bedard. Every Florida win is a bad day for us. |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 19, 2023 22:18:33 GMT -5
This actually was a good night for the tank. Yotes putting some distance between us. Flyers picking up a point so are 2 points ahead of us with a game in hand. I truly believe Ducks can and will catch us so 4th worst is very possible. As for Fla, I gave up on them being in the Bedard sweepstakes a week ago. My hopes is the won't make the playoffs but they will not add to our chances for Bedard. Every Florida win is a bad day for us. No doubt! But unless they go on a run in the playoffs which is unlikely give they will be playing the top seeds, I think it's fair to say at this point their pick will likely be somewhere between 15-20 overall. I know not what we had hoped for, but not bad for Chariot. |
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Mar 20, 2023 0:53:05 GMT -5
Like one idiot I recall said, "Make the playoffs and anything can happen".
Also don't fprget that an 86 point team made it to the SC finals only a year and a bit ago. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Florida is an issue until they miss the playoffs.
|
|
|
|
Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Mar 20, 2023 18:00:21 GMT -5
Like one idiot I recall said, "Make the playoffs and anything can happen". Also don't fprget that an 86 point team made it to the SC finals only a year and a bit ago. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Florida is an issue until they miss the playoffs. The odds of picking first are slim, (5% to 9%). The odds of picking Bedard are even less if Habs management concludes that Connor has a bad interview??? At this point I would gladly settle for Michkov. No hurry to bring him over. Just don't ask questions about Ukrania in the inverview if there is one. Slavkovski will be a good player, just not a first overall pick. Choosing him on the basis of his performance in the Olympics (seven games against mediocre competition) rather than his mediocre record otherwise. Expectations of Poehling on the basis of his first game in the NHL are imbalanced. Shane Wright needed to be taken down a peg but now he seems like he is ready to perform at 20 years of age. |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 20, 2023 20:45:55 GMT -5
Well, Fla is now in a playoff spot. My money says they finish in the first wild card spot. Still OK as long as they don't do much in the playoffs.
Will be something if both Crosby and Ovie are out of the playoffs. When was the last time that happened?
|
|
|
|
Post by seventeen on Mar 20, 2023 23:26:25 GMT -5
Well, Fla is now in a playoff spot. My money says they finish in the first wild card spot. Still OK as long as they don't do much in the playoffs. Will be something if both Crosby and Ovie are out of the playoffs. When was the last time that happened? This has been coming. The Pens are old, as are the Caps. They've been trying to extend the mileage on Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin and it can work for a while, but eventually the runway hits trees. I just wonder if they'll start the rebuild next year. GM's often don't really have a say, as the owner feels he's a hockey expert and has other ideas. The Pens are owned by a Corp now, so they might let Burkie do his thing. |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 21, 2023 0:46:19 GMT -5
Well, Fla is now in a playoff spot. My money says they finish in the first wild card spot. Still OK as long as they don't do much in the playoffs. Will be something if both Crosby and Ovie are out of the playoffs. When was the last time that happened? This has been coming. The Pens are old, as are the Caps. They've been trying to extend the mileage on Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin and it can work for a while, but eventually the runway hits trees. I just wonder if they'll start the rebuild next year. GM's often don't really have a say, as the owner feels he's a hockey expert and has other ideas. The Pens are owned by a Corp now, so they might let Burkie do his thing. It's interesting because Crosby and Ovie are both having decent seasons, but their surrounding mates are pretty weak. Malkin lost it awhile ago. Right now the playoff races in both conferences is between 3 teams vying for two wild card spots: Fla, Pitt, and NYI in the East, and Kraken, Flames and Jets in the West. How all those teams fair will determine where Fla's pick is in the first round; anywhere from 15th to 20th. |
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Mar 22, 2023 21:55:09 GMT -5
The Pens finally won... and against the Avs... knocking the panthers out of a playoff spot... let's go Pens
|
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 22, 2023 22:14:54 GMT -5
The Pens finally won... and against the Avs... knocking the panthers out of a playoff spot... let's go Pens Hopefully Pens have a little more in the tank. Then we gotta worry about NYI having enough jam. On paper Fla is the better team. Hopefully Bobs blunders. |
|
|
|
Post by habsorbed on Mar 23, 2023 0:30:37 GMT -5
Just watched Ariz picked up a point against the Oil to m one further ahead of us. We must lose to Philly next week and then we are pretty good for 5th overall and 8.5% chance and Bedard. And I haven't ruled out 4th worst and 9.5% chance.
Watching Oil is bizarre. They have the best payer on the planet and Drais who NHL players voted best paaser in the league and they can barely make the playoffs. The rest of their team is so weak, particularly on D and in net. They can score but sure can't play hockey.
|
|
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/6F6VF25GCFF2HFJCOITRJSGNPE.jpg)
