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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 30, 2014 8:36:10 GMT -5
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 30, 2014 8:40:52 GMT -5
Five years, $43 million. That's my fearless prediction. Subban gives up money to get a shorter deal, and thus become a UFA in his prime years.
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Post by blny on Jul 30, 2014 9:15:02 GMT -5
It would be beyond unfortunate if this actually went to the arbitration case. Still time. Hopefully it gets done.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jul 30, 2014 9:26:32 GMT -5
The fact it has even got this far without a deal is a little annoying. Come on, get 'er done!!
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 30, 2014 9:30:21 GMT -5
If the numbers are accurate then it looks like a deliberate low-ball offer by Bergevin ... maybe he just wants the arbitrator to set the price ... then he can use "the arbitrator didn't give me a choice" argument if he moves another player salary out of Montreal ... I don't know the figure but I suspect PK will get his money if it does make it to arbitration ...
Cheers.
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Post by jkr on Jul 30, 2014 10:08:45 GMT -5
If the numbers are accurate then it looks like a deliberate low-ball offer by Bergevin ... maybe he just wants the arbitrator to set the price ... then he can use "the arbitrator didn't give me a choice" argument if he moves another player salary out of Montreal ... I don't know the figure but I suspect PK will get his money if it does make it to arbitration ... Cheers. I'm confused about this process. The Habs arbitration offer to Eller was 1.6 yest he signed for much more. I don't agree that Subban has nothing to gain from arbitration as mentioned in anothere post. He can get a big short term payout then become a UFA.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 30, 2014 10:15:44 GMT -5
If the numbers are accurate then it looks like a deliberate low-ball offer by Bergevin ... maybe he just wants the arbitrator to set the price ... then he can use "the arbitrator didn't give me a choice" argument if he moves another player salary out of Montreal ... I don't know the figure but I suspect PK will get his money if it does make it to arbitration ... Cheers. I'm confused about this process. The Habs arbitration offer to Eller was 1.6 yest he signed for much more. I don't agree that Subban has nothing to gain from arbitration as mentioned in anothere post. He can get a big short term payout then become a UFA. I think either it gets signed July 31 or the arbitrator gives a price and MB uses that to give PK a long contract and as Dis said, use it as an excuse to move someone out.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 30, 2014 16:28:24 GMT -5
Don Meehan is a guest on McKeown and is supposed to be on, any minute. Friedman is the assistant host today to Sid Sexeiro, since McKeown's on vacation. Friedman wonders if the Habs aren't playing a bit of a dangerous game. I don't think he likes that it's gone this close to the wire. It's on Sportsnet 360.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 30, 2014 16:30:39 GMT -5
Thanks Seventeen ... got it on now ...
Cheers.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 30, 2014 16:50:12 GMT -5
No real 'news'. Meehan was very professional, stating that Montreal was also being professional and respecting the process. Meehan and PK are not 'angry' at the Canadiens, it's simply a matter of the process (a word that was used exhaustively). The Habs fly into TO tomorrow for the arbitration hearing on Friday and Thursday is when they will be meeting with Meehan etc. If it's going to happen, the signing should be announced tomorrow, perhaps late. PK proved in his last negotiation that he can be, perhaps not stubborn, but determined, so we shouldn't be surprised that this is going the way it is. Berg took the easy way out with a Bridge deal last time. I hope he doesn't do that this time, but I would think he's concerned not with what he has to pay PK, but how it will affect his CAP space and his flexibility in putting together a winning team. I think that's the key with Berg. If he's willing to pay 'stars' like Briere $4MM a year, paying PK more than double that is not a problem, but paying a large sum for 8 years, should make him tread carefully. Another defining moment for our GM.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 30, 2014 20:47:52 GMT -5
Five years, $43 million. That's my fearless prediction. Subban gives up money to get a shorter deal, and thus become a UFA in his prime years. WHY would he do that? If he gets his 8.5 million, he's going to the highest bidder. 12 million is the floor bid. You can bet the house on that. MB would be an idiot if he does not trade him immidiatly after he signs. His value will diminish every day until there is none 1 minute after trade deadline.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 30, 2014 21:40:25 GMT -5
Agree in that if the contract works out unfavourably for Montreal, I'd be moving him ASAP. If its a short term deal till he turns UFA, you know he's not re-signing with the Habs. Next year is a good draft, so if you can send him to a team in a strong lottery position, and pick up at least one very good player, a prospect and a #1 choice, you do it. Having said all that, I think, and I hope he'll sign a good for him, good for us long term deal. It's comparable to a long term real estate lease. A 99 year lease is worth almost as much as owning the land, at the beginning. With a week to go to termination, it's less than worthless.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 30, 2014 21:55:33 GMT -5
It would be beyond unfortunate if this actually went to the arbitration case. Still time. Hopefully it gets done. Agree. They still have a bit of time, but frankly it's a bit embarrassing for the Habs that its gotten this far. Maybes PKs side is pushing hard but maybe I'm still annoyed that we are where we are. And BC, I would love that 5- year, $43 million deal!
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 30, 2014 23:16:47 GMT -5
I edited my post. It's only one year until FA.
Even worse....
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 30, 2014 23:30:53 GMT -5
It would be beyond unfortunate if this actually went to the arbitration case. Still time. Hopefully it gets done. Agree. They still have a bit of time, but frankly it's a bit embarrassing for the Habs that its gotten this far. Maybes PKs side is pushing hard but maybe I'm still annoyed that we are where we are. And BC, I would love that 5- year, $43 million deal! If PK wants north of 11 million, would you do it? There is no logical reason to believe that MB made a stupid offer. I bet he reached the 8-9 range and given that PK wants to be one of the the highest paid while still RFA, I hate to think what he is going to ask for FA. If we want to critisize MB for not signing him long term two years ago, do we know what PK wanted? If PK wanted to be paid elite or record breaking money then, I support MB for not biting. I rather give him hell for not pulling the trigger on a trade. I really like PK, and I hope I'm wrong, but......
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Post by seventeen on Jul 31, 2014 0:27:24 GMT -5
Eric Engels column today: www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=82Eric Engels
EDIT: The Canadiens have just announced Dan Lacroix will join their coaching staff.
Also, Rob Ramage has been hired to replace Patrice Brisebois, and the front office has been restructured as follows:
Rick Dudley - Senior Vice-President of hockey operations Trevor Timmins - Vice-President of player personnel and head scout Scott Mellanby - Promoted to Assistant General Manager Larry Carriere - Assistant General Manager
When I think about P.K. Subban, I think about the word respect. I think about Mike Richards suggesting Subban doesn't have respect for the game. I think about the perception of Subban's talent being disrespected by his own coach. I think about the respectful manner in which Subban comports himself off the ice. I think about the disrespect Subban dealt with in the Boston series. I think about Subban lobbying for the Habs to be respected.
And when I think about this current contract debacle between Subban and the Habs, I think most about respect; about the respect Subban's garnered with his most recent accomplishments; high scoring seasons, a Norris Trophy, a fabulous playoff run. I think about Subban wanting to be respected by Marc Bergevin, Michel Therrien and the Canadiens. For them to speak about him as glowingly as he speaks about the Habs.
This isn't about 8.5, or 8.75, or 9. This is about Subban, Molson and Bergevin sitting at a press conference that highlights the respect the Canadiens have for what Subban means to their organization. This is about putting a label on what Subban's already proven in Montreal--that he's one of their two best players, and that unequivocally, he's a respected leader in the dressing room.
The numbers came out ahead of arbitration. Subban's agent Don Meehan set the bar at $8.5M for next season, and because Subban filed for arbitration, the Canadiens have the right to choose between a one or two-year settlement. They elected for a one-year deal that would pay Subban $5.25M. I think fans, media, and anyone with any interest in this thing will interpret that in different ways.
The formalities are as follows: In choosing a one-year deal, the Habs have ensured that if this does in fact go to arbitration, they won't lose Subban at the end of the year. Arbitration will loom once again. It also ensures they can work out a long-term deal sooner than if he were to be awarded a two-year contract that brings him to unrestricted free agency.
Bergevin's number tells me he's angling to keep Subban's restricted free agent years at a reasonable figure, knowing he's got very little wiggle room on his unrestricted years. If you assume Subban's currently worth is equal to the $7.25M Kris Letang is making this season, then you have to imagine that number only gets bigger from year-to-year.
Subban's number for next season makes it clear that a long-term negotiation is in Bergevin's best interest (as if that wasn't clear enough). When you really break down the numbers from year-to-year, you start to realize Subban will be leaving some money on the table to lock himself up for eight years, anywhere between $8-9M annually.
I maintain, Subban wants fair value, but really, he wants to be respected. That's why he's willing to go long when he could easily skate to arbitration, pick up as much as $8.5M next season, and be up for an even bigger contract at this time next year.
It's time for the Canadiens to commit to Subban. He's certainly committed to them, even if some Toronto natives want you to believe he's always dreamed of playing for the Leafs. It's time for the Habs to make a statement about how much they respect Subban.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 31, 2014 6:50:03 GMT -5
Eric Engels column today: www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=82Eric Engels
EDIT: The Canadiens have just announced Dan Lacroix will join their coaching staff.
Also, Rob Ramage has been hired to replace Patrice Brisebois, and the front office has been restructured as follows:
Rick Dudley - Senior Vice-President of hockey operations Trevor Timmins - Vice-President of player personnel and head scout Scott Mellanby - Promoted to Assistant General Manager Larry Carriere - Assistant General Manager
When I think about P.K. Subban, I think about the word respect. I think about Mike Richards suggesting Subban doesn't have respect for the game. I think about the perception of Subban's talent being disrespected by his own coach. I think about the respectful manner in which Subban comports himself off the ice. I think about the disrespect Subban dealt with in the Boston series. I think about Subban lobbying for the Habs to be respected.
And when I think about this current contract debacle between Subban and the Habs, I think most about respect; about the respect Subban's garnered with his most recent accomplishments; high scoring seasons, a Norris Trophy, a fabulous playoff run. I think about Subban wanting to be respected by Marc Bergevin, Michel Therrien and the Canadiens. For them to speak about him as glowingly as he speaks about the Habs.
This isn't about 8.5, or 8.75, or 9. This is about Subban, Molson and Bergevin sitting at a press conference that highlights the respect the Canadiens have for what Subban means to their organization. This is about putting a label on what Subban's already proven in Montreal--that he's one of their two best players, and that unequivocally, he's a respected leader in the dressing room.
The numbers came out ahead of arbitration. Subban's agent Don Meehan set the bar at $8.5M for next season, and because Subban filed for arbitration, the Canadiens have the right to choose between a one or two-year settlement. They elected for a one-year deal that would pay Subban $5.25M. I think fans, media, and anyone with any interest in this thing will interpret that in different ways.
The formalities are as follows: In choosing a one-year deal, the Habs have ensured that if this does in fact go to arbitration, they won't lose Subban at the end of the year. Arbitration will loom once again. It also ensures they can work out a long-term deal sooner than if he were to be awarded a two-year contract that brings him to unrestricted free agency.
Bergevin's number tells me he's angling to keep Subban's restricted free agent years at a reasonable figure, knowing he's got very little wiggle room on his unrestricted years. If you assume Subban's currently worth is equal to the $7.25M Kris Letang is making this season, then you have to imagine that number only gets bigger from year-to-year.
Subban's number for next season makes it clear that a long-term negotiation is in Bergevin's best interest (as if that wasn't clear enough). When you really break down the numbers from year-to-year, you start to realize Subban will be leaving some money on the table to lock himself up for eight years, anywhere between $8-9M annually.
I maintain, Subban wants fair value, but really, he wants to be respected. That's why he's willing to go long when he could easily skate to arbitration, pick up as much as $8.5M next season, and be up for an even bigger contract at this time next year.
It's time for the Canadiens to commit to Subban. He's certainly committed to them, even if some Toronto natives want you to believe he's always dreamed of playing for the Leafs. It's time for the Habs to make a statement about how much they respect Subban. That is a very good article... thanks for posting 17
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Post by jkr on Jul 31, 2014 6:50:36 GMT -5
It would be beyond unfortunate if this actually went to the arbitration case. Still time. Hopefully it gets done. Agree. They still have a bit of time, but frankly it's a bit embarrassing for the Habs that its gotten this far. Maybes PKs side is pushing hard but maybe I'm still annoyed that we are where we are. And BC, I would love that 5- year, $43 million deal! Agreed. Subban didn't want to negotiate duing the season but it's been over 2 months since the season ended & still nothing. It looks like most of the work has been done except the most important piece of business.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 31, 2014 7:08:24 GMT -5
WHY would he do that? If he gets his 8.5 million, he's going to the highest bidder. 12 million is the floor bid. You can bet the house on that. MB would be an idiot if he does not trade him immidiatly after he signs. His value will diminish every day until there is none 1 minute after trade deadline. Subban is a Hab - unless traded - for at least two more years. There is just no getting around that. So he'll be at the whims of an arbitrator for that time, and I don't know if he's going to get much more than $8 million from an arbitrator. I don't know if in two years the cap will be high enough to support a $12 million floor bid from a lot of teams in the league. A few perhaps, but certainly not all of them... but five years from now? Hypothetically, if Subban signs a five year deal he will be hitting UFA as a 30 year old, with at least one Norris trophy under his belt, and perhaps more. Certainly more nominations. He'll also have at least one Olympic Gold medal, and possibly two, the second as a much bigger contributor. Hopefully a Stanley Cup ring, if not multiple. Maybe a Conn Smyth Trophy for best player in the playoffs. Or multiple. He'll be a mega-watt star that the league, if they are smart, will be focusing a good deal of marketing power on. He'll be a house-hold name, and perhaps one of the few hockey players that can transcend the game, and be known in the non-hockey world. The much sought-after "cross-over" athlete. He will be a mega-star. The cap, in five years, might be as much as $20 million higher than it is now. Perhaps more if they throw in a quick expansion. Good god, can you imagine a second expansion team coming into Toronto at exactly the same time as PK hits free agency? A team, in his hometown, with pretty much a blank slate, cap-wise? You could be looking at a $15 million player. He'll EASILY get over $12 million per year as a UFA, even if there is no second team in Toronto, five years from now. Perhaps more. I'm sure Don Meahan can read the tea leaves as well as we can. Taking an eight year deal at eight, nine, even ten million dollars per year would be leaving money on the table for his client. A five year deal at $8.6 million would still give him a VERY good shot at landing a $100 million contract as a 30 year old. And STILL only be 37-38 at the end of it, in line for another two or three year contract, should he want it. Yeah, if I'm Meahan I see no reason why I would tell Subban to take a long term deal. I wouldn't have advised that two years ago either. We all knew coming out of the lock-out that the cap was poised to explode, we talked about it quite frequently right here. Locking yourself into anything now - or then - while perhaps providing you with security that you probably don't need, is going to leave money on the table, if you ask me. In my opinion getting Subban signed to anything over four years would have to be considered bonus years for Bergevin. The ONLY reason I could see Subban even considering a five year deal would be because of his loyalty to Montreal. Despite it all, I think he has some. Otherwise he's just the biggest mercenary of all time, who will take one year deals for the next two years, no matter what Bergevin offers, and sell himself to the highest bidder. I don't think that's the case, but we'll have to see.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 31, 2014 7:40:11 GMT -5
Here is a "not panicking" article that I thought made a lot of sense in explaining what is actually going on, without the need for either respect or greed to enter the equation. Explains "the process" so to speak. Contrary to popular belief, disrespect played no part in the Montreal Canadiens one-year $5.25 million contract offer to franchise defenseman PK Subban while Subban’s camp is said to be asking for $8.6 million. This is not an instance of the team undervaluing what Subban has brought to the Canadiens organization. No, the Canadiens and Subban are not actually $3 million apart in their negotiations. It is an instance of a savvy management staff correctly playing their role in the arbitration process. No need to torch downtown Montreal just yet.
This is something that has not really been properly explained by conventional media because, at this point in the summer, it doesn’t make sense. For one, an explanation would take up extra ink, or space in an online sense. But it would also abate a story that is one of the biggest in a less than full hockey newsreel right now. Making it sound like there is a massive negotiation gap will get an article far more exposure than the more specific explanation of the NHL Arbitration process.
The bit of context that has been consistently missing from the Subban negotiation, and multiple other negotiation pieces, is a breakdown of the arbitration process. Here is proof that it only takes a paragraph. In simplest terms, arbitration is a ruling on what a player is worth relative to his NHL peers for a one or two year deal and the team selects the term. This is done so based mostly on stats, therefore it makes sense for the team to submit the numbers of the lowest earning stats comparable, while the players submits the highest. This way both sides ensure that the middle ground is more advantageous for them. There’s the basics.The rest can be read HERE.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 31, 2014 7:51:24 GMT -5
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Post by jkr on Jul 31, 2014 10:16:15 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Jul 31, 2014 11:23:54 GMT -5
Friedman did a good job of explaining PK's number, using Weber as a comparable. I would have liked for him to look at the other side of the ledger though, using Karlsson as Bergevin's comparable. ERIK KARLSSON Signs current contract at age 22. Gives up 2 years of UFA. Contracts ends at age 29. Annual Cap hit = 6.5 million Won Norris Trophy at age 22. Two years prior to signing contract ... 156 games, 32 goals, 91 assists, 123 points PK SUBBAN Currently 25yrs old. Won Norris Trophy at age 24. Two years prior to next contract .... 124 games, 21 goals, 70 assists, 91 points Almost identical points per game, and each with a Norris. Karlsson gave up less UFA years than what we would like PK to give up. But let's hypothetically surmise that all parties involved would love a 5 yr deal. That would get PK Subban to age 30, and he'd be giving up three yrs UFA I find it hard to accept, that one extra year of UFA, is worth 16.5 million dollars. (8.5 million + 2 million x 4 previous years) He is not that much better than Erik Karlsson. When Karlsson signed with Ottawa, he took up 10% of their cap. 8.5 million would be 12% of Montreal's cap. When I toss this over in my head, I keep coming back to a number starting with a "7" ... I'd be offering 5yrs (36.5 million). If it is more, I'd sign him, but I'd be searching for trades until the right one came along.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 31, 2014 11:40:12 GMT -5
You're not going to get and keep PK for a number starting with 7. It may have to start with 9 and you may be right, it could be a sign and trade situation, or it could be sign and let's see how it plays out first. Maybe he'll be worth that 9 number.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 31, 2014 12:16:47 GMT -5
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Post by Willie Dog on Jul 31, 2014 13:42:31 GMT -5
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Post by blny on Jul 31, 2014 14:23:40 GMT -5
Comparing Karlsson contract to PK is apples and oranges. Different cap eras. You have to factor in the new cap, and contracts signed during it. Karlsson might be a comparable player, but the contracts aren't imo.
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 31, 2014 14:43:02 GMT -5
I don't know if in two years the cap will be high enough to support a $12 million floor bid from a lot of teams in the league. A few perhaps, but certainly not all of them... but five years from now? First ....It wont take a "lot of teams", it will only take ONE. Just ONE team has to make the offer and the Habs will have lost one of it's biggest assets in a long while for NOTHING. Second....you can't justify a huge number today against what the cap may or may not be in five years. This is NOT the discussion any of us wanted to have. Period. I really like PK......yet here we are......
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Post by UberCranky on Jul 31, 2014 14:49:19 GMT -5
You're not going to get and keep PK for a number starting with 7. It may have to start with 9 and you may be right, it could be a sign and trade situation, or it could be sign and let's see how it plays out first. Maybe he'll be worth that 9 number. I really, really doubt that MB is offering anything like "7plus" for a multiyear. I really don't see MB balking at 8plus for a 8 year one, but I doubt he is going to bend over for a 9 plus for 5 years. Look at it logically at the "if-then". IF PK is asking 8.5 in arbitration to reach FA, THEN bet the house he is asking for a lot more for 8 years. My guess, north of 10.
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Post by Habs_fan_in_LA on Jul 31, 2014 15:14:32 GMT -5
You're not going to get and keep PK for a number starting with 7. It may have to start with 9 and you may be right, it could be a sign and trade situation, or it could be sign and let's see how it plays out first. Maybe he'll be worth that 9 number. I really, really doubt that MB is offering anything like "7plus" for a multiyear. I really don't see MB balking at 8plus for a 8 year one, but I doubt he is going to bend over for a 9 plus for 5 years. Look at it logically at the "if-then". IF PK is asking 8.5 in arbitration to reach FA, THEN bet the house he is asking for a lot more for 8 years. My guess, north of 10. The clock is ticking. We will know more tomorrow at this time than we do now in conjecture. We want PK here for life. We want to be fair (whatever that is). Nobody is certain about the future. Cap will probably go up, in 6 years a new collective bargaining agreement, injuries, trades...... 1. The cap will probably go up 2. PK will be able to command more in two years as a free agent than today as a RFA 3. Maybe a second team in Toronto, maybe the Leafs, maybe European teams in the NHL maybe a career ending injury, maybe Donald Sterling buys the Habs, maybe??? Risk and Reward Personally, I prefer a guaranteed $50 million to a possible $70 million one day. Not much I can't buy with $50 million and not sure I would need another $20 million. I don't consider a bunch of lawyers professionally presenting their cases for both sides would create lasting bad feelings. It's a business and a business decision.
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