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Post by seventeen on Jul 21, 2015 12:38:18 GMT -5
To be totally fair (and somewhat naive), coaches can adapt and change, which is why I'm blaming the system more than the coach. I fear, though, that Therrien's spots are made up with permanent markers rather than the dry erasable type.
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Post by franko on Jul 21, 2015 13:11:56 GMT -5
To be totally fair (and somewhat naive), coaches can adapt and change, which is why I'm blaming the system more than the coach. I fear, though, that Therrien's spots are made up with permanent markers rather than the dry erasable type. to that I say good coaches can adapt and change . . . mediocre coaches' spots are made up with permanent markers rather than the dry erasable type. it is the coach that adjusts the system. ya, I know, I'm harping again.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 22, 2015 8:07:44 GMT -5
Fearless goal predictions: *NOTE: It's July. The team will change. I realize that. But... it's July. What else is there to talk about?Pacioretty (32) - Desharnais (15) - Kassian (18) Galchenyuk (25) - Plekanec (22) - Gallagher (24) De la Rose (5) - Eller (12) - DSP (7) Weise (7) - Mitchell (7) - Flynn (7) Bournival (4) Markov (10) - Subban (18) Beaulieu (4) - Petry (8) Gilbert (3) - Emelin (1) Tinordi (1) - Pateryn (0) Price (1) - I gotta feeling! Misc/Callups: 9 - Andrighetto: 4
- Thomas: 2
- McCarron: 2
- Scherback: 1
Total: 240 That would be good, no?
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 22, 2015 8:24:53 GMT -5
If nothing else, this is going to be a very telling season. Basically a litmus test on the Bergevin/Therrien regime. 4 years in, foundation has been in place since Berg took the job, some untapped potential with Galchenyuk, but otherwise this is it. This is the team we have, barring a signature move. And it's not like you can point to 2016-17 as the year we get over the hump. All the same guys are locked up next year too, with the notable exception of Plekanec who will be a UFA. If anything, we will be scrambling to replace one of the best point producers on the team.
So Berg has kind of painted himself into a corner. He's tinkered for 4 years, not really touched the core group, and it ultimately hasn't been enough. Flashy suits and a cool demeanor only get you so far. It seems he has very a low bar: be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope for a great run by Carey Price.
But I will give him the benefit of the doubt, see how things shape up in camp, and maybe there is another move coming. Or maybe BC is right: the PP clicks, and Galchenyuk takes the next step, and the ripple effect results in an offense that is better by enough to make a big difference.
Either way I'll be watching!
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Post by franko on Jul 22, 2015 8:40:14 GMT -5
Fearless goal predictions: Total: 240 That would be good, no? definitely a good start. *NOTE: It's July. The team will change. I realize that. But... it's July. What else is there to talk about? the flip side: fearful goals against predictions. lets hope those few more goals for balance of the few more goals against. it's July. why am I getting in a panic yet? because of the truism past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes . . . Price will probably not have a four-trophy year (I'd be happy with two: the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup). I guess I can always hope that the truism holds for MT and that he leads the team further than he has led one before . . .
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 22, 2015 9:09:32 GMT -5
Mentioned it a while back, but I remember reading somewhere that Greg Pateryn was very effective on the PP the year he scored 15 goals in Hamilton ... if the PP is still a problem come start the season, why not try him on the PP ...
Cheers.
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Post by blny on Jul 22, 2015 10:06:03 GMT -5
I don't want a system that preaches strictly chip it out, or strictly skate it out. I want a system where our players are taught to read and react to the point where it becomes instinctive what to do.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jul 22, 2015 10:52:56 GMT -5
I don't want a system that preaches strictly chip it out, or strictly skate it out. I want a system where our players are taught to read and react to the point where it becomes instinctive what to do. You're describing what my buddy (former Bruins scout) says is "hockey IQ" ... how they react under pressure, how well they see the ice, whether or not they know the situation they're in ... etc ... they look for this in players well before they hit the show ... Cheers.
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Post by blny on Jul 22, 2015 13:02:34 GMT -5
I don't want a system that preaches strictly chip it out, or strictly skate it out. I want a system where our players are taught to read and react to the point where it becomes instinctive what to do. You're describing what my buddy (former Bruins scout) says is "hockey IQ" ... how they react under pressure, how well they see the ice, whether or not they know the situation they're in ... etc ... they look for this in players well before they hit the show ... Cheers. I agree. Then some coaches drum it out of them. That was the point I was trying to articulate. There's no point in drafting creative thinkers and players if you're going to system coach them to death. It's tantamount to putting square pegs in round holes.
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Post by seventeen on Jul 22, 2015 13:37:27 GMT -5
Fearless goal predictions: *NOTE: It's July. The team will change. I realize that. But... it's July. What else is there to talk about?Pacioretty (32) - Desharnais (15) - Kassian (18) Galchenyuk (25) - Plekanec (22) - Gallagher (24) De la Rose (5) - Eller (12) - DSP (7) Weise (7) - Mitchell (7) - Flynn (7) Bournival (4) Markov (10) - Subban (18) Beaulieu (4) - Petry (8) Gilbert (3) - Emelin (1) Tinordi (1) - Pateryn (0) Price (1) - I gotta feeling! Misc/Callups: 9 - Andrighetto: 4
- Thomas: 2
- McCarron: 2
- Scherback: 1
Total: 240 That would be good, no? Let's try a more pessimistic outlook, while still trying to be reasonable. Pacioretty (32) Desharnais (12) Kassian (10) Galchenyuk (25) - PLekanec (18) - Gallagher (20) De La Rose (5) - Eller (12) - DSP (3) Let's leave the rest alone. One could question if PK will get 18 or Markov 10 on declining legs, but lets not quibble. I've reduced DD and Kassian because of lack of confidence (mine) and injuries. I just don't think DSP is going to pan out, so he won't get that much ice time, or if he does, he will hit lots of people, though its been shown that hitting people doesn't result in improved production. I also excluded Carey's goal, since it would be a meaningless one. I get 216 with my numbers, which is 2.63 goals per game. We got 2.7 last year, so that's not much different. We also had very, very few injuries last year. History suggests we aren't going to be that lucky forever. Of course, that opens up an opportunity for someone else, but unless we have a huge surprise, the replacement probably won't score more than the guy they're replacing. I did a projection earlier, where Carey has merely a very good year with a save percentage around .920 and that caused our goals against to go up to the 215 range. If we score around 215-220 goals and give up 215, how does that compare with the standings last year? Well, the Pens made it in with 221 for and 210 against. The Bruins missed it with 213 for 211 against and then it falls off from there. I fully expect to be fighting for a playoff spot this year. If we factor in more injuries than last year, I have us missing the playoffs. I truly feel that Therrien's system would have been badly exposed this year, but for Carey's Priceless performance. If our possession game improves, you'll see our scoring improve and we should make the playoffs comfortably. If not, don't consider it a surprise that we're fighting for our playoff lives. It will be because of mis-use of a decent line-up. Bergevin can't be ignorant of that either, and I don't think he is.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 22, 2015 14:55:30 GMT -5
Let's try a more pessimistic outlook, while still trying to be reasonable. If we can't beat to death meaningless guesses, then why does the internet exist? Pacioretty (32) Desharnais (12) Kassian (10) Galchenyuk (25) - PLekanec (18) - Gallagher (20) De La Rose (5) - Eller (12) - DSP (3) Let's leave the rest alone. One could question if PK will get 18 or Markov 10 on declining legs, but lets not quibble. I've reduced DD and Kassian because of lack of confidence (mine) and injuries. I just don't think DSP is going to pan out, so he won't get that much ice time, or if he does, he will hit lots of people, though its been shown that hitting people doesn't result in improved production. I also excluded Carey's goal, since it would be a meaningless one. I get 216 with my numbers, which is 2.63 goals per game. We got 2.7 last year, so that's not much different. We also had very, very few injuries last year. History suggests we aren't going to be that lucky forever. Of course, that opens up an opportunity for someone else, but unless we have a huge surprise, the replacement probably won't score more than the guy they're replacing. The big question will be Kassian, in my opinion. He scored 10 goals with limited minutes in half a season. 18 goals would be his career best, but by the same token it's not all that far off from what he is capable of either, historically speaking. I read somewhere that his goals per 60 minutes would have been second only to Pacioretty, so that's something. 10 goals, I think, would be a disaster for him, and I have higher expectations. Or hopes, I guess I should say. Desharnais is Desharnais. He's good for about 14-15 goals a year, especially if he continues to get the ice time he gets. Which doesn't look like it will change. So all other things being equal I expect his production to remain the same. I'm not as down on DSP as everyone seems to be, but I would put him in the quibbling category. I gave him 7, you gave him 3… meh. I did a projection earlier, where Carey has merely a very good year with a save percentage around .920 and that caused our goals against to go up to the 215 range. If we score around 215-220 goals and give up 215, how does that compare with the standings last year? Well, the Pens made it in with 221 for and 210 against. The Bruins missed it with 213 for 211 against and then it falls off from there. I guess that depends on how you define "very good year". A .920 save percentage, in today's NHL, is rather mediocre. Number 10 on the top save percentage list last year was Tuukka Rask, with .922 - I don't think Price will be out of the top ten next year, even if he isn't epically good. I fully expect him to be in the top 5 or so again, which would give him a .925 percentage. How many goals does that save? I fully expect to be fighting for a playoff spot this year. If we factor in more injuries than last year, I have us missing the playoffs. Well, that's what Bergevin implies when he always says "our first goal is to make the playoffs" and everybody jumps down his throat. Maybe he just sees the same thing you do? I truly feel that Therrien's system would have been badly exposed this year, but for Carey's Priceless performance. If our possession game improves, you'll see our scoring improve and we should make the playoffs comfortably. If not, don't consider it a surprise that we're fighting for our playoff lives. It will be because of mis-use of a decent line-up. Bergevin can't be ignorant of that either, and I don't think he is. It's rare that I'm the optimist, but I really see Therrien playing a different system next year. Not completely different mind you, but I don't think it will be as restrictive. Remember, we started the year with Mike Weaver, Rene Bourque and Manny Malhotra in the lineup last season. And P.A. Parenteau if you want to go even further. We're a better team going into next year, if you ask me, and I think he's going to see that and let them play accordingly. Sheesh. I never, ever, thought I would be the Therrien defender. Perhaps this should go into the Signs of the Apocalypse thread?
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Post by Boston_Habs on Jul 22, 2015 14:59:55 GMT -5
It all looks possible BC until you realize that we scored 214 goals last year (after deducting SO goals). So that's 26 more goals, but 240 is the magic number.
Feels like 18 goals for Kassian is a lot, and 25 goals out of the 4th line plus Bournival seems aggressive too but I like the optimism. But this is clearly what Bergevin is hoping for, that there is enough untapped potential here, with Galchenyuk being a big piece, that a bit of tweaking will suffice. He may be right.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 22, 2015 17:20:49 GMT -5
I guess that depends on how you define "very good year". A .920 save percentage, in today's NHL, is rather mediocre. Number 10 on the top save percentage list last year was Tuukka Rask, with .922 - I don't think Price will be out of the top ten next year, even if he isn't epically good. I fully expect him to be in the top 5 or so again, which would give him a .925 percentage. How many goals does that save Since, on average, there are about 2000 shots on Price a year, every 0.005 in save percentage is about 10 goals. If Price dips to his career average of 0.920, that's 28 more goals against. But I agree, Price is more likely to be a top 5 goalie, and play above his career average. At 0.925, which is top 5, he will surrender 18 more goals. Your scenario very optimistically adds 24 goals, but ONLY if Price has another career year will those goals matter, cause if he is merely top 5, we will had added just 6 goals differential. This is why I contend we need more goals, we need offense.
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 23, 2015 7:46:35 GMT -5
It all looks possible BC until you realize that we scored 214 goals last year (after deducting SO goals). So that's 26 more goals, but 240 is the magic number. Feels like 18 goals for Kassian is a lot, and 25 goals out of the 4th line plus Bournival seems aggressive too but I like the optimism. But this is clearly what Bergevin is hoping for, that there is enough untapped potential here, with Galchenyuk being a big piece, that a bit of tweaking will suffice. He may be right. Yep, 240 goals would be a big leap. But again, Weaver, Bourque, Malhotra, Parenteau... Those guys were regulars. Add in Gonchar, Allen, Bowman, Tangradi... bit players perhaps (though Gonchar wasn't) and we had a lot of really mediocre players suit up for the team last year. I really only gave two players large jumps in production; Galchenyuk and Kassian. Well Subban too, if you consider three more goals to be a huge jump. But I gave Galchneyuk the big jump to 25 goals (from 20), which I don't think too many people think is unreasonable, and Kassian an even bigger jump to 18 (from 10). That's the leap of faith, and it's entirely stats based. 10 goals in 42 games last year. That would translate into 19.5 goals over a full season, so I'm merely hoping/assuming that he plays a full season. If he doesn't, well then it becomes a question of how many fewer goals he will get, and what his value over his replacement player would be. If he goes down in January with a season ending injury, after scoring 10 goals, will McCarron/Scherbak/Hudon/whoever be able to score that remaining 8 goals to make up the difference? Also should note that I cut Pacioretty's goals rather significantly. He had 37 last year, 39 the year before, and I only gave him 32. So there is room for "improvement" there too, though of course we don't know the significance of the injury or the effect it will have on his season. For everybody else I simply gave them more or less what they scored the year before. Neither better, nor worse (or at least not significantly so in my opinion). So I think this lineup, as constructed is very capable of scoring 240 goals, even if you factor in the Therrien system (which most of them were playing anyways). EDIT: Kassian's Goals Per Game Last year Kassian scored at a rate of 1.13 goals per 60 minutes. 48th overall in the NHL, according to this list. He played a total of 529 minutes, in 42 games, for an average of 12.37 minutes per game. Using those stats, with no increase in ice time per game, but assuming he will play 80 games he would score 19 goals. Increase his minutes per game by 2 and he's up over 22. Get him up over 16 minutes a game (top line) and he's scoring over 25! Of course that's assuming he maintains his goals-per-60 minutes pace of 1.13. But even if you drop that to 0.80, which would be closer to his career average he's still scoring 17-18 goals, assuming 16 minutes per game of ice time. Lots of assumptions of course, but I believe that a top six winger spot is (currently) his to lose, so he will get every opportunity, if you ask me. (math work not shown!)
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Post by seventeen on Jul 23, 2015 9:56:50 GMT -5
EDIT: Kassian's Goals Per Game Last year Kassian scored at a rate of 1.13 goals per 60 minutes. 48th overall in the NHL, according to this list. He played a total of 529 minutes, in 42 games, for an average of 12.37 minutes per game. Using those stats, with no increase in ice time per game, but assuming he will play 80 games he would score 19 goals. Increase his minutes per game by 2 and he's up over 22. Get him up over 16 minutes a game (top line) and he's scoring over 25! Of course that's assuming he maintains his goals-per-60 minutes pace of 1.13. But even if you drop that to 0.80, which would be closer to his career average he's still scoring 17-18 goals, assuming 16 minutes per game of ice time. Lots of assumptions of course, but I believe that a top six winger spot is (currently) his to lose, so he will get every opportunity, if you ask me. (math work not shown!) How are we going to get the Sedin's for Kassian to play with? Just asking.
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Post by Skilly on Jul 23, 2015 11:25:07 GMT -5
Yep, 240 goals would be a big leap. But again, Weaver, Bourque, Malhotra, Parenteau... Those guys were regulars. This is where I disagree. If they were regulars, then some of the replacements would have to be looked at as regulars. If Bourque was a regular (160 mins played, 0 goals) then how is Mitchell (140 mins, 0 goals) an upgrade? And shouldn't he be called a regular as well? Collectively, the replacement do not outshine the subtractions by very much. (But yes, they are marginally better) However, as I have noted in previous threads/posts that while the replacements seem to do marginally better the whole team with the replacements down the stretch did significantly worse then before they arrived. Including the replacements. Which is why we should upgrade. It seems to me we are building a team on betting on project players ... and when they don't work we dump them and try filling the top six holes with grunts. Even if Kassian scores 18, I don't think this team scores 240. What we keep forgetting is that Weise, Prust, Sekac, DSP (are there more?) all spend time in the top six and all scored while on the top six. Did those fill-ins score 18 as a group? I don't think so, but I do think they scored in the 8-12 margin while being in the top 6. So, on the bottom 6, can we now turn around and expect 7 from everyone on the fourth line? I can't see it. [/quote]For everybody else I simply gave them more or less what they scored the year before. Neither better, nor worse (or at least not significantly so in my opinion). So I think this lineup, as constructed is very capable of scoring 240 goals, even if you factor in the Therrien system (which most of them were playing anyways). [/quote] Every single player scoring pretty much on their career averages or better. No one regresses (even giving Pacioretty 32 is not a regression when you consider over the last 4 years he averages 34 goals). And Price continues to play at a 0.936 clip. May the odds ever be in our favour ....
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Post by BadCompany on Jul 31, 2015 7:55:57 GMT -5
So... is he done? Or does he go for a more "sure-thing" top-six upgrade at left-wing? Staal? Skinner? Steen? Bring back the prodigal sons Cammalleri and/or Tanguay?
Or does he sit back and wait, see what he has for a month or two. We know he's not shy about moving big pieces a month or two into the season, and even less so when it comes to deadline deals. Is he done, or is there more to come?
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Post by blny on Jul 31, 2015 8:14:35 GMT -5
I say he's done. The only way he adds to the forward group at this point is if he moves a center out in the deal. There really isn't much room at this point for one of the kids to have a great camp and earn a spot.
Pacioretty-Desharnais-Semin Galchenyuk-Plekanec-Gallagher De La Rose-Eller-Kassian Weise-Mitchell-DSP Flynn
The above isn't about 'lines' as much as it is to show that 13 NHL forward spots appear to be full. Even the tweeners we have (Bournival, Andrighetto, Thomas, Hudon, etc) are going to have a hard time getting in.
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Post by habsorbed on Jul 31, 2015 13:07:02 GMT -5
I'd say he's done and I'm good with that. We are definitely a better team than we were 2 months ago.
Goalie: can't get any better!
Defence: Petry big addition and should allow Markov more downtime. Beau should only get better, as should Pateryn.
Forwards: PAP was a waste of space. Semin maybe as well but i like our chances. And Kassian could explode (or implode). Ironically we may have too many top 6 forwards. I think Semin and Kassian need to be used in that position to see what they can bring. Max's injury may assist as both should see top 6 action for a month or two. If they don't produce then drop them down. DSP is a distant top 6 at this point and likely 4th liner. i'm not sure what that says about him or the depth we now have. Our real weakness is the lack of a top flight centre. Chucky!!!!
Drop the puck already!
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Post by seventeen on Jul 31, 2015 13:10:34 GMT -5
I think we're better, but not good enough. I think Semin will have something to prove and Markov may kick his butt now and then and he'll score 20+. Kassian will score more than Prust, by a little. Mitchell will score more than Manny. Galchy will improve on last year's numbers. Our top 4 on D will definitely be better than the top 4 we started out with last year. Etc. etc.
The downside is that I don't see Price saving 93.6% of all shots again, and I still see Plekanec, Desharnais and Eller as our top 3 centres. Not nearly good enough. Bergevin may have to hold his nose at the deadline and pull an Anthopolous type deal a la David Price, for a top centre. You don't win without strength up the middle and we have the goalie, the D, but not the C.
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Post by stoat on Aug 1, 2015 23:52:13 GMT -5
I don't think Subban will score more than 15 or Tinordi more than 0 (he may not last long). I think Semin will add 15-20 and one or two others (DSP, DLR, Kassian) will add 8-10. I don't expect to see a trade for a high scoring center because the Habs don't have enough to give in exchange. Plekanec, Galchenyuk, and Gallagher will score 20+ again. A rookie or two (Scherbak, McCarron, Hudon, Andrighetto) may surprise.
As for whether the Habs are good enough to advance to the SCF, we have to consider the relative strengths of other teams in the East. I foresee improvement in a number of teams.
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Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Aug 4, 2015 8:26:44 GMT -5
I think he'll have another decision to make depending on how Jared Tinordi fairs in training camp ... if he doesn't make the club then he'll have to clear waivers in order to be demoted, and I suspect some club will snatch him up right away ... if he does happen to make the club then Bergevin will still either have to waive or trade a d-man away so as not to lose him for nothing ... Cheers.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Aug 4, 2015 13:33:02 GMT -5
I think he'll have another decision to make depending on how Jared Tinordi fairs in training camp ... if he doesn't make the club then he'll have to clear waivers in order to be demoted, and I suspect some club will snatch him up right away ... if he does happen to make the club then Bergevin will still either have to waive or trade a d-man away so as not to lose him for nothing ... Cheers. I think the Tinordi camp performance is very important. When you also include Barberio, the Habs have nine defensemen who all could conceivably be in the lineup and all have to clear waivers. Barring any deal between now and then (and the Berg is on record several times talking about how he loves defensive depth), this is a big deal for Tinordi. I really don't think Tinordi is really all that far behind development schedule, as he is still only 23 and just five years from being drafted. I would just hate to see him lost for nothing strictly due to the numbers game. You know Barberio will be motivated to have a good camp as he gets to play for his hometown team, so Tinordi won't get a free pass from either him or Pateryn.
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Post by seventeen on Aug 4, 2015 14:04:44 GMT -5
Barberio couldn't crack TB' s defense. I think we're equal or better. Will he really crack ours? That wouldn't inspire confidence in me.
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 5, 2015 6:20:13 GMT -5
I think Barberio would clear wavers way easier than Jarred would.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Aug 5, 2015 10:14:50 GMT -5
I think Barberio would clear wavers way easier than Jarred would. On that, I would tend to agree. I still think Tinordi will win out either the 7th or 8th spot, and the Habs are likely going to have to start the season with 8 D and only 13 F in order not to lose a guy like Pateryn or Tinordi to waivers. I am really hoping that Tinner has his breakout and finally earns his spot this season. Cheering for him.
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Post by habsorbed on Aug 5, 2015 12:34:01 GMT -5
I'm thinking these players and Tinordi are able to do the math on the waiver situation. If not, their agents i'm sure explain it to them. Should make a a heck of a competition in camp. Unless Tinordi and his dad are fed up with the treatment he has received as a Hab and are quite happy to move on.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2015 13:32:50 GMT -5
Mr Tinordi is not going to go through waivers, I'd bet my next 7 unborn children on that. He will be given every chance to prove that he isn't a big body with a small brain and crack the top 7. If he and his daddy wanna pull a Bonnie Lindros he'll be shipped out for a good return.
I expect one of the veteran dmen to be dealt, Emelin to Vancouver is a possibility.
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Post by Willie Dog on Aug 6, 2015 7:41:07 GMT -5
Mr Tinordi is not going to go through waivers, I'd bet my next 7 unborn children on that. He will be given every chance to prove that he isn't a big body with a small brain and crack the top 7. If he and his daddy wanna pull a Bonnie Lindros he'll be shipped out for a good return. I expect one of the veteran dmen to be dealt, Emelin to Vancouver is a possibility. According to General Fanager, NTC (2014-15 and 2015-16); Limited NTC (2016-17 and 2017-18), making it harder to move him.
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Post by Boston_Habs on Aug 6, 2015 8:14:10 GMT -5
Bergevin botched that contract with Emelin. I don't know what percent of players with his profile get a NTC, but it seems like he could have gotten a deal done without it. Especially since Emelin was coming off a major knee injury.
Still doesn't mean he can't be moved. You just need to find a list of potential candidates. I'm less concerned with the return we would get on trading Emelin than getting his $4.1 million cap hit off the books and opening up a spot for Tinordi. Of course nobody wants to pay $4.1 million for a 3rd pair dman, so I don't see how we can trade him without eating some of his salary or taking back an equally bad contract.
Sadly, I think it's more likely that Tinordi gets traded than Emelin.
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