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Post by blny on Jan 21, 2020 16:28:57 GMT -5
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Post by Polarice on Jan 22, 2020 8:07:23 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe that MB would trade Petry. He's really our best Dman and they are very hard to come by. If we trade him we'd better get a first in return.
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Post by blny on Jan 22, 2020 8:28:07 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe that MB would trade Petry. He's really our best Dman and they are very hard to come by. If we trade him we'd better get a first in return. Seravalli definitely feels there's interest, and the return would be more than what Muzzin got because he's a rhs defender. That's the incentive to do it. The reason not to is because there's no heir apparent ready to take his 23 minutes a night. As Seravalli points out, Montreal is not going to move him unless it's a pretty sizable overpay.
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Post by folatre on Jan 22, 2020 11:47:42 GMT -5
Well, anything is possible. Bergevin moved on from Shaw.
However, I doubt that Bergevin trades Petry or, for that matter, Tatar. The reason for this is that Bergevin does not want to rebuild and, moreover, he actually believes in the veteran core. Therefore, I would surmise that Montreal's "plan" is to try to be good enough to be a bubble team in 2020-21
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Post by BadCompany on Jan 22, 2020 15:51:09 GMT -5
Trade Gallagher. Why?
* Highest trade value. I’m thinking two firsts (which gives you a shot at lottery pick, if you target properly), and maybe a top prospect. With his low salary, his character, and the fact that he is still signed for one more year there will be no shortage of suitors. Sell high, and his value will never be higher than it is now.
* Position of depth. Armia, Drouin, Poehling, Lehkonen, Byron, Caufield, Ylonen, all right-wingers. Maybe we also get a RW in return for Gallagher. Or we sign Kovalchuk. Or we draft one. Or three.
* He will be a contract nightmare. Moreso than either Petry or Tatar, who given their ages and current salaries cannot expect to get much more than what they are currently making. What is Petry going to get? $7.5 million? That’s only $2 million more than his current cap hit. What’s Gallagher going to get? Certainly more than Pacioretty, right? What if he wants Mark Stone type numbers? $9.5 million to play in a tax-free state for a guy who has never scored more than 28 goals, and who’s career high in points is 64. Compare that to Gallagher’s career highs of 33 and 54.
* He will want term. Seven years, maybe eight. Again, Mark Stone. How well is Gallagher going to age? Were it not for his latest injury occurring right before the break he’d be in double-digits for games missed already. That would make 3 of the last 5 years where he’s missed significant time. With his style of play is that going to get better… or worse?
He’s a great character player, no doubt about it, but where has that gotten us? I love Gallagher, but if you want to get you got to give. I think you can get at least two firsts, and if you pick a team due for a fall, maybe a lottery pick. Calgary, Vegas, Nashville, Dallas, Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg… there are a lot of candidates out there, and I’d bet that all of them would seriously consider ponying up two firsts for Gallagher.
Put Gallagher on the market and see what is out there. Worst case scenario, you keep the player.
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Post by franko on Jan 22, 2020 16:25:58 GMT -5
BC, I hate your suggestion but it is the right thing to do.
Gally will want term, but I don't think his body is up to it.
He'll want money, and he'll probably deserve it (term notwithstanding).
He is at the top of his game, so he will be missed.
But his return will be best now. Same with Tatar.
And this team is going nowhere this year (as much as I hate to admit it). It's time for a bit of honesty.
Problem: what are you left with for jam? Have to pick someone up, but I'm also making Armia and Scandella available too. Oh, and Alzner.
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Post by folatre on Jan 22, 2020 17:56:03 GMT -5
Good points guys.
In reality, all of the Habs soon to be UFAs (2020 and 2021) are going to expect term. I would imagine that Scandella will be looking for four years, though he may have to settle for three. And the 2021 crop will be looking for more. Danault would not sign for fewer than five seasons. Gallagher probably expects six. Petry is not going to sign for fewer than five, likewise Tatar.
Considering management's adamance that winning is impossible without Price and Weber, it would be impossible to keep all of the above mentioned guys and likely unwise to keep most of them. In the contemporary NHL, it is simply not viable to have one-third of a roster making serious money over the age of 30.
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Post by franko on Jan 22, 2020 19:31:28 GMT -5
Unfortunately it becomes a trade for picks and prospects and the future, and a 3 year excuse to not make the playoffs because the team is young and green.
Where are those trades, anyway?
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Post by folatre on Jan 22, 2020 21:31:33 GMT -5
Yeah, for sure, waiting for rain (trading for futures) when the organization has basically been wandering in the desert for half a decade with no map is not a great scenario.
However, staying the course with same veteran core together for 2020-21 and charting a course to miss the playoffs again would ratchet fan apathy up to levels previously unseen.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 22, 2020 21:45:28 GMT -5
I'll believe MB trades any vet when I see it.... wont happen... MB will add because he's delusional and thinks this team can make the playoffs... sooo tired of being on this un-merry go-round
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Post by Polarice on Jan 23, 2020 6:43:57 GMT -5
The only time I would trade my vet core is if I'm guaranteed at least 3 top ten picks that year with a good chance at getting #1. That way the path to building a competitive team is much quicker and less painful.
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Post by franko on Jan 23, 2020 7:03:03 GMT -5
That way the path to building a competitive team is much quicker and less painful. therein lies the problem. many Habs fans don't want pain nor do they want a "build" -- they want competitive now without having to give up anything to get there. in this case pain is the way to go, a la . . . well, I don't need to name the teams. MB is playing a dirty rotten game . . . giving the fans what they want while not giving the fans what they want. keeping competitive (kinda) while not being a sucky team. the Senators are doing it right, albeit for the wrong reasons (cheapness). but they can point to top picks and "hope". we are promised / we can expect more of the same. sigh.
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Post by jkr on Jan 23, 2020 8:39:08 GMT -5
I just can't see the return for Gallagher, especially with just one year left, as 2 first rounders. I tried to find a similar player to Gallegher - in age, productivity, contract status and style of play. I have only been thinking about since last night , but the guy I came up with right now is Kadri. He is almost 2 years older & has an extra year on his deal at 4.5. But they both have two 30 goal seasons & they both play with an edge. Admittedly, Kadri crosses the line too often. But when Kadri was traded last year with Rosen, the return was Kerfoot & Barrie who is UFA at the end of the season. I dont know if Gallaghr is worth two firsts & if teams are willing to give up that much.
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Post by frozone on Jan 23, 2020 9:46:03 GMT -5
I just can't see the return for Gallagher, especially with just one year left, as 2 first rounders. I tried to find a similar player to Gallegher - in age, productivity, contract status and style of play. I have only been thinking about since last night , but the guy I came up with right now is Kadri. He is almost 2 years older & has an extra year on his deal at 4.5. But they both have two 30 goal seasons & they both play with an edge. Admittedly, Kadri crosses the line too often. But when Kadri was traded last year with Rosen, the return was Kerfoot & Barrie who is UFA at the end of the season. I dont know if Gallaghr is worth two firsts & if teams are willing to give up that much. The Kadri trade wasn't at the trade deadline though. It was more of a hockey trade. I would argue trading Kadri or Barrie at the deadline would get quite a return, one that would be a little more representative of what Gally would fetch right now. My gut says BG is more valuable to a team prepping for a playoff run. The Habs have quite a few core players and we could afford to let some of them ultimately walk as UFA's or retirees, but we have to get some kind of return for at least a few of them: Gallagher Petry Domi Tatar Danault Cousins/Weal (just kidding) Price Weber Drouin Byron Some of these guys will be more valuable to the Habs than their worth on the market. I'm thinking Price and Weber might fall into this category because of their contracts. Possibly Petry because his value to us is so high, but it all depends on what the return would be. Gallagher is approaching that transition where you either trade him and get a great return, or you hang onto him until his body is broken. Personally, I would hunt for the king's ransom soon so as to not miss the boat, but the great thing about trading Gallagher is that there is no "wrong" move. Just let the market dictate whether you trade him or not. You either get a king's ransom, or you get a few more years of Gallagher. Both great option, but you HAVE to start making calls and fielding offers imo. Tatar is the only true slam dunk to be traded at least by the deadline 2021. He's been a great producer and a great team guy, but LW is where we actually have some good depth. Plus, we need to make room for Lafrenière.
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Post by NWTHabsFan on Jan 23, 2020 13:20:46 GMT -5
A year ago I would have put money that Petry would be as good as gone at this year's deadline if the team was out of the playoffs. We had decent young depth at the RHD position: Juulsen (pending his full recovery which looked reasonable at the time), Brook (who impressed at camp last year) and Fleury. Now, Juulsen's health and playing future are still up in the air, Brook has struggled in his first pro season and is not ready to make the jump, and Fleury actually overachieved and made the team out of camp. We have no other RHD prospects. This is a big organizational weakness (I know a lot has been made about the need at LHD, but I am really surprised they did not draft at least one RHD this past draft for this very reason).
I cannot see Berg even taking calls on Weber or Price. I think they only move when either Berg is gone or when they are fed up enough to ask to be moved to a contender to give them a chance at a Cup before they retire.
Tatar is likely living on borrowed time. It may be this trade deadline if the offer is rich enough (where are you GMGM?), this summer, or next year's trade deadline. He is super likeable, produces, and seems to be thriving in Montreal, but it is about decent return on investment and having some depth to absorb his loss at LW. If the offers are not good enough, then it likely defers to a year from now. He has put up career numbers this season and last, so there should be some serious value there.
I agree with the above analysis on Gally. It is hard to imagine this team without his heart and soul leadership. But he also would be in huge demand on the marketplace and who really knows how long his body can keep up with the way he plays. He definitely has a shorter effective lifespan on the ice than others.
Then there is Kovy. He loves it here. But I bet he would love a shot at the Cup even more. And there are a whole lot of GM's thinking about how good an add he would be for mere peanuts (in terms of salary). Berg could very well convert 15 or so games with Kovy into a second round pick or so. Again, like others, if the offer is not enough, he can play the season out and Berg can add him to his next season negotiating list. The difficulty is that each free agent season with him means he will be looking for a chance at the Cup. We could lose him for nothing, so that is why I think he gets moved. Our best forward currently and he has been a lot of fun to watch (and his renewed enthusiasm is contagious among his team mates), but this is business and I am sure teams will line up with serious offers.
There are fringe guys that could get moved for mid to late round picks. This may be the sum total of Berg's actual moves this year. Nothing to see here. Been there done that. Yawn. Thompson, Cousins, whatever.
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Post by folatre on Jan 23, 2020 13:53:58 GMT -5
NW and fro, i concur on a most of the points that you guys raise.
I have a feeling that Kovalchuk and maybe some other fringe guy are likely the only deals Bergevin pulls the trigger on.
For me I think that it comes down to management not wanting to concede the 2020-21 season. Frankly, I think that is a faulty way to frame the club's strategic planning. At best the Habs will be a bubble team next season so it seems short-sighted to make strategic decisions that will impact the club for the next five years based on worrying about how bad Montreal could be in 2020-21.
The fear of being a dog in the standings does not prevent a group from turning out to be a dog. As an organizational/roster architect Bergevin is putting the touches on Montreal's third bottom ten finish in five years.
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Post by seventeen on Jan 23, 2020 13:55:06 GMT -5
AS Franko says, Ottawa is following the right path for the wrong reasons, but geeze, does that ever seem like it's working out. Yes, they suck big time right now, but they have a 23 year old Chabot, a 20 year old Tkachuk, Batherson and Formenton, Bernard-Docker, Thomson and Pinto, Brannstrom and two probably top 10 picks this year.
They traded Evander Kane for the Sharks 1st round pick this year and who thought it would be a lottery pick? Luck, yeah, but there exists the possibility that Evander Kane turns into Alexis Lafreniere. Or Quinton Byfield, or one of several guys who could be excellent players. I think one could guess that there's a strong likelihood that in 3 years, Ottawa will be a pretty good team and Montreal may still be waddling in mediocrity. In 5 years, Ottawa could be challenging for a cup. Nah....not if Melnyk still owns them.
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Post by franko on Jan 23, 2020 14:07:09 GMT -5
Shhh . . . Karlsson
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Post by franko on Jan 23, 2020 14:49:27 GMT -5
In 5 years, Ottawa could be challenging for a cup. Nah....not if Melnyk still owns them. Bang on there. Melnyk = Ballard. But Molson ain't much better. The former 2 are cheap. Molson just doesn't get it. (And there I go, wrong thread)
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Post by seventeen on Jan 23, 2020 15:59:44 GMT -5
In 5 years, Ottawa could be challenging for a cup. Nah....not if Melnyk still owns them. Bang on there. Melnyk = Ballard. But Molson ain't much better. The former 2 are cheap. Molson just doesn't get it. (And there I go, wrong thread) Melnyk will find some way to wreck it. I disagree about Molson. I think he knows exactly what he's doing. Or to put it more precisely, he thinks he knows what he's doing. He's putting profit ahead of winning (yes...completely disregard what he says...talk is uber cheap especially to the manipulative uber rich). Molson's track record shows one transaction to improve the team for every 5 that saves him money. I'm not sure what to make of the Alzner contract. That was just sheer stupidity. The Aho offer sheet is a solid example of what I mean. The offer had .001% chance of being successful. It was enough to entice Aho, but wayyyyyyy tooooooo cheap to entice Carolina to allow it to go through. It was a slam dunk match. So why make the offer sheet at all? Exactly....what possible purpose could it serve? Well, some fans actually think it was an effort by the Habs to improve the team. Chortle. . It cost what? Hmmmmm. Nothing. Perfect. A move that makes it look like management is uncovering every rock to make the team better, without costing a cent. I won't go over the other moves that saved him money (Markov, Radulov, Weber, Domi) but it's quite obvious $$ are a heavy weighting in the transactional algorithm.
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Post by franko on Jan 23, 2020 16:40:20 GMT -5
. Melnyk will find some way to wreck it. ya I agree that's what I don't get. you mean there isn't money to be made in merch? doesn't a full arena mean more beer and hot dog sales? doesn't a winning team mean playoff revenue? I guess I'm just a simpleton.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 23, 2020 16:41:32 GMT -5
Bang on there. Melnyk = Ballard. But Molson ain't much better. The former 2 are cheap. Molson just doesn't get it. (And there I go, wrong thread) Melnyk will find some way to wreck it. I disagree about Molson. I think he knows exactly what he's doing. Or to put it more precisely, he thinks he knows what he's doing. He's putting profit ahead of winning (yes...completely disregard what he says...talk is uber cheap especially to the manipulative uber rich). Molson's track record shows one transaction to improve the team for every 5 that saves him money. I'm not sure what to make of the Alzner contract. That was just sheer stupidity. The Aho offer sheet is a solid example of what I mean. The offer had .001% chance of being successful. It was enough to entice Aho, but wayyyyyyy tooooooo cheap to entice Carolina to allow it to go through. It was a slam dunk match. So why make the offer sheet at all? Exactly....what possible purpose could it serve? Well, some fans actually think it was an effort by the Habs to improve the team. Chortle. . It cost what? Hmmmmm. Nothing. Perfect. A move that makes it look like management is uncovering every rock to make the team better, without costing a cent. I won't go over the other moves that saved him money (Markov, Radulov, Weber, Domi) but it's quite obvious $$ are a heavy weighting in the transactional algorithm. That offer sheet was embarrassing and for the Yahoo owner of the Canes to make fun of this organization is a shame... shame on MB for being a moron... shame on molson for being a bigger moron
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Post by folatre on Jan 23, 2020 16:56:11 GMT -5
There is an ever-growing body of evidence that Molson is not focused first on winning. Seventeen hits on some of them above. Overall, there is no accountability for extended runs (historical ones at that) of poor on-ice results. Luckily for Molson, Montreal is a revenue generating machine because the fanbase is huge and in many families it extends back generations. He also bought a top notch downtown arena for a great price and has made a tonne of money on year around entertainment at the arena.
Ottawa, on the other hand, has a revenue problem and this will probably be the kiss of death in terms of ever seeing their promising looking rebuild actually mature and contend for silverware. Ottawa has a relatively small fanbase and depends too much on walk up ticket sales. Also, there is just not enough corporate patrons to keep the revenue wheel spinning. Without a new downtown arena I cannot see Melnyk paying the bonuses and rich RFA deals that a guy like Tkachuk will demand. I know that Dorion got Chabot signed, but the kid did not dig in that hard and he signed with no bonus money and a contract that backloads much of the salary, which gives Melnyk the chance to instruct his GM to trade Chabot before he has to sign starting the bigger cheques.
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Post by Cranky on Jan 23, 2020 18:49:04 GMT -5
Trade Gallagher. Why? * Highest trade value. I’m thinking two firsts (which gives you a shot at lottery pick, if you target properly), and maybe a top prospect. With his low salary, his character, and the fact that he is still signed for one more year there will be no shortage of suitors. Sell high, and his value will never be higher than it is now. * Position of depth. Armia, Drouin, Poehling, Lehkonen, Byron, Caufield, Ylonen, all right-wingers. Maybe we also get a RW in return for Gallagher. Or we sign Kovalchuk. Or we draft one. Or three. * He will be a contract nightmare. Moreso than either Petry or Tatar, who given their ages and current salaries cannot expect to get much more than what they are currently making. What is Petry going to get? $7.5 million? That’s only $2 million more than his current cap hit. What’s Gallagher going to get? Certainly more than Pacioretty, right? What if he wants Mark Stone type numbers? $9.5 million to play in a tax-free state for a guy who has never scored more than 28 goals, and who’s career high in points is 64. Compare that to Gallagher’s career highs of 33 and 54. * He will want term. Seven years, maybe eight. Again, Mark Stone. How well is Gallagher going to age? Were it not for his latest injury occurring right before the break he’d be in double-digits for games missed already. That would make 3 of the last 5 years where he’s missed significant time. With his style of play is that going to get better… or worse? He’s a great character player, no doubt about it, but where has that gotten us? I love Gallagher, but if you want to get you got to give. I think you can get at least two firsts, and if you pick a team due for a fall, maybe a lottery pick. Calgary, Vegas, Nashville, Dallas, Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg… there are a lot of candidates out there, and I’d bet that all of them would seriously consider ponying up two firsts for Gallagher. Put Gallagher on the market and see what is out there. Worst case scenario, you keep the player. To us, Gally is heart and sole center. At this point, our most valuable forward and asset. So the return has to be an absolute minimum at Suzuki/Domi level and more likely, Suzuki/Domi/1st. Or an established young player with top 6 already achieved. A Marner/Werenski circa 2016 or the like. Problem is, every GM puts HIS rookies at a notch higher then what other GM's do and vice versa with GMs and their vets. So that kind of trade becomes close to impossible unless there is an overwhelming need for a Gally type player. I (we) would trade anyone on the team to improve OUR team. So would every GM in the league to improve THEIR team.
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Post by Cranky on Jan 23, 2020 18:54:05 GMT -5
Melnyk will find some way to wreck it. I disagree about Molson. I think he knows exactly what he's doing. Or to put it more precisely, he thinks he knows what he's doing. He's putting profit ahead of winning (yes...completely disregard what he says...talk is uber cheap especially to the manipulative uber rich). Molson's track record shows one transaction to improve the team for every 5 that saves him money. I'm not sure what to make of the Alzner contract. That was just sheer stupidity. The Aho offer sheet is a solid example of what I mean. The offer had .001% chance of being successful. It was enough to entice Aho, but wayyyyyyy tooooooo cheap to entice Carolina to allow it to go through. It was a slam dunk match. So why make the offer sheet at all? Exactly....what possible purpose could it serve? Well, some fans actually think it was an effort by the Habs to improve the team. Chortle. . It cost what? Hmmmmm. Nothing. Perfect. A move that makes it look like management is uncovering every rock to make the team better, without costing a cent. I won't go over the other moves that saved him money (Markov, Radulov, Weber, Domi) but it's quite obvious $$ are a heavy weighting in the transactional algorithm. That offer sheet was embarrassing and for the Yahoo owner of the Canes to make fun of this organization is a shame... shame on MB for being a moron... shame on molson for being a bigger moron Problem with calling him a moron is based on our perspective. In his world, he's a genius. Taking a team from 600m to 1.5 BILLION within a decade AND making great yearly profits proves him as a genius and the fans are morons who pay and live on hope.
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Post by franko on Jan 23, 2020 18:58:02 GMT -5
Ottawa has a relatively small fanbase and depends too much on walk up ticket sales. Also, there is just not enough corporate patrons to keep the revenue wheel spinning. Without a new downtown arena I cannot see Melnyk paying the bonuses and rich RFA deals that a guy like Tkachuk will demand. I know that Dorion got Chabot signed, but the kid did not dig in that hard and he signed with no bonus money and a contract that backloads much of the salary, which gives Melnyk the chance to instruct his GM to trade Chabot before he has to sign starting the bigger cheques. Willie may/probably will disagree with me here, but Ottawa has a decent fan base. It also has an aversion to all things Melnyk. They just don't like the guy because he is so cheap. He talks about fans being important and winning being important and building for the future but I don't think he believes what he says, let alone the fans who he wants at the games. Ottawa's problem is that it is a government town; you're right, not enough corporate patrons, and the biggest employer in town forbids its employees receiving comp tickets. And there is no walk-up because of where the arena is located, so the downtown arena is a definite necessity but Melnyk doesn't want to put any money into it but wants to reap any and all rewards (no, I'm not impressed with the guy either). I can see Weber finishing his career in Ottawa because he'll receive no money for a large cap hit. We can be happy in Montreal because Tkachuk and Pageau will soon be gone.
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Post by seventeen on Jan 23, 2020 19:05:29 GMT -5
Problem with calling him a moron is based on our perspective. In his world, he's a genius. Taking a team from 600m to 1.5 BILLION within a decade AND making great yearly profits proves him as a genius and the fans are morons who pay and live on hope. Yes. It says a lot about human nature that many fans don't take concrete action to get what they want. If Molson's behaviour is affected by $$, then use $$ to change his behaviour. Unfortunately, many people have gotten used to instant gratification and if it takes too long for your actions to generate the desired return, they choose not to take that path.
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Post by Willie Dog on Jan 23, 2020 19:46:34 GMT -5
Ottawa has a relatively small fanbase and depends too much on walk up ticket sales. Also, there is just not enough corporate patrons to keep the revenue wheel spinning. Without a new downtown arena I cannot see Melnyk paying the bonuses and rich RFA deals that a guy like Tkachuk will demand. I know that Dorion got Chabot signed, but the kid did not dig in that hard and he signed with no bonus money and a contract that backloads much of the salary, which gives Melnyk the chance to instruct his GM to trade Chabot before he has to sign starting the bigger cheques. Willie may/probably will disagree with me here, but Ottawa has a decent fan base. It also has an aversion to all things Melnyk. They just don't like the guy because he is so cheap. He talks about fans being important and winning being important and building for the future but I don't think he believes what he says, let alone the fans who he wants at the games. Ottawa's problem is that it is a government town; you're right, not enough corporate patrons, and the biggest employer in town forbids its employees receiving comp tickets. And there is no walk-up because of where the arena is located, so the downtown arena is a definite necessity but Melnyk doesn't want to put any money into it but wants to reap any and all rewards (no, I'm not impressed with the guy either). I can see Weber finishing his career in Ottawa because he'll receive no money for a large cap hit. We can be happy in Montreal because Tkachuk and Pageau will soon be gone. I agree with you Franko... a downtown arena would make a huge difference but the light rail needs to go out to the suburbs before a downtown arena would see it's true potential imo. Melnyk is not loved by ottawa fans... I have friends who won't go to the games as long as he's the owner... the fiasco at Lebreton Flats was the last straw for many of them.
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Post by franko on Jan 23, 2020 20:03:08 GMT -5
I agree with you Franko... a downtown arena would make a huge difference but the light rail needs to go out to the suburbs before a downtown arena would see it's true potential imo. well, be nice to have light rail working where it is, first, no? (I know, wrong place). LRT blew it -- should have completed one way or the other then moved on. this trying to please everyone is pleasing no one. kinda like the "plan" the Habs have. annoy some people at the beginning to make everyone happy soon, rather than annoying everyone now and annoying everyone later. just showed -- again -- the kind of person he is. and yes I'm being judgmental. nah, just an honest observation.
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Post by folatre on Jan 23, 2020 21:14:30 GMT -5
Franko, I agree, Ottawa has a plenty decent fanbase in comparison to the Panthers, the Ducks, the Canes, the Blue Jackets and a few other clubs. But the reality is that Ottawa is a smallish market simply because it is not a mega city, there are not much in the way of corporate dollars, there are the building and Melnyk issues, and basically the Senators sell way too few season tickets to be considered a thriving organization.
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