|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 25, 2020 18:40:12 GMT -5
President of China, Xi Ping has declared it a "grave situation" and China is mobilizing everything it has to contain it.
Apparently every person who has it infects 2.5 other people. While that may not sound bad, it's actually horrendous. Here is a brief explanation of R0 Values....
At R0 2.5, it IS an pandemic number. About the same as the 1918 Swine Flu rate of infection. Thus the "grave concern" of Xi Ping.
I don't buy the bullcrap about "we are ready". Ready for what? A couple of people? 100? How about 10,000? How about outside the main cities? How about internal travel?
SARS? It killed 10% of the 8100 people and MERS killed 35% of the 2500 people it infected, BUT, the issue here is a matter of numbers. Two or three percent for coronavirus does not sound very dangerous, but at the RATE of infection and the potential of enormous numbers makes it much more dangerous. Thus, how are we going to deal with 10,000 that can be quickly reached with R0 of 2.5?
Time? In as little as a week or two, it may be "shut down" flights from China time. If it spreads to multiple other countries and Eruope....well.....the ban has to be total to slow down the spread in NA BEFORE the numbers become too large to contain.
Am I worried? Yes and no. Personally, we have lots of food and can withstand a few months of curfews, but we are all connected and unless it's a continent wide shut down of all incoming people, the so called "Fortress America", eventually, no one can escape getting exposed to infected people. It's not that we or infected people WANT to spread it, it's just normal human everyday contact.
So here is my major concern.....are our so called self proclaimed "elites" and deep state ready to shut down and create "Fortress America"? I have ZERO doubt that much maligned guy in the States would do it, but I have enormous concerns that our beloved Bearded One is going to waffle and procrastinate until we are knee deep. Ditto for the Mexico. And not to forget....I have no doubts that the twitty mobs will declare any early action as "racist" until their Twitty pals start disappearing from their likes.
What are the people who we voted in and responsible for our safety prepared to do?
Anywho.....comments?
|
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Jan 27, 2020 16:44:04 GMT -5
Stop all people coming in from China... plain and simple... what were the real costs of the SARS virus in Canada... billions I assume all brought on because they recycle sewer contents into cooking oil. Sorry if this offends anyone but youtu.be/zrv78nG9R04 |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 27, 2020 21:22:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jan 28, 2020 8:33:35 GMT -5
Stop all people coming in from China... plain and simple... what were the real costs of the SARS virus in Canada... billions I assume all brought on because they recycle sewer contents into cooking oil. Sorry if this offends anyone but youtu.be/zrv78nG9R04The two people in Toronto that has the Coronavirus....husband and wife. Knew they were sick while still in China. They left so they could get treatment here in Canada. I don't understand what goes through peoples heads...I wonder how many people they have infected trying to get here. |
|
|
|
Post by Disgruntled70sHab on Jan 28, 2020 9:32:56 GMT -5
We came through Pearson International on Friday and the customs officials were all wearing surgical masks ... I thought it was odd but then I saw another flight that was full of Asians and several of them were wearing the same and that's when I thought about Coronavirus ... we went up to the customs window and all he asked us was whether we had been to China in the past two weeks ... we hadn't and he just handed our papers back to us ... never knew about the two cases in Toronto until later ...
Cheers.
|
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Jan 28, 2020 9:47:59 GMT -5
The border security, because that's what this needs to be , need to start being more vigilant than asking if you've been to China... how about have you had any dealings with people from china while abroad... etc
|
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 28, 2020 14:44:02 GMT -5
Stop all people coming in from China... plain and simple... what were the real costs of the SARS virus in Canada... billions I assume all brought on because they recycle sewer contents into cooking oil. Sorry if this offends anyone but youtu.be/zrv78nG9R04The two people in Toronto that has the Coronavirus....husband and wife. Knew they were sick while still in China. They left so they could get treatment here in Canada. I don't understand what goes through peoples heads...I wonder how many people they have infected trying to get here. I keep hearing that everything is under control and looky here, the person who was infected came in on his two legs. No problem, Canadians will voluntarily make sure they do the right thing. Put you hand up if that makes you feel safe? How about a dose of reality.....anyone having half a braincell will do ANYTHING to reach Canadian shores to be treated. Does anyone really believe that if someone suspects that they may be infected wouldn't take the next plane and get here? Or how about telling us how many patients in isolation our system can handle? How come we don't get that figure? Because...could it be it's in the hundreds? Oh wait, people will voluntarily shutter themselves for a week or three with no human contact. Or that human contact will be prefectly masked and coveted. Put your hand up if you believe in our "elites" and their malarkey. Look, I'm not panicking or dusting off the preppy bunker, but i want reality and action. Start by shutting down all flights coming in from China. NOW. Anyone who has been to China, isolation and testing. At worse, a few days of heir lives vrs the possible spread and pandemic. Tell us what we REALLY can do and prepared to do instead of don't worry pablum. Oh wait...i forgot. In the Bearded Ones world, that would be racist and violate human rights. Best to calm the dumb masses. Anywho.....hope this is just my usual half empty glass and overcautious nature...hope. |
|
|
|
Post by CentreHice on Jan 28, 2020 15:52:13 GMT -5
Start by shutting down all flights coming in from China. NOW. Anyone who has been to China, isolation and testing. At worse, a few days of heir lives vrs the possible spread and pandemic. Agree here. |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 28, 2020 16:28:21 GMT -5
One thing that I'm going to bet on...
China communist first instinct is secrecy. They have been unusually open and they thought it was good PR. Now they are beginning to see that it's going to spread into their stock market and business....so expect them to reverse back to secrecy and lies.
Guaranteed.
Simply put, no nation can survive a complete shut down. So the metrics favor a few hundred thousand dead over complete economic collapse.
Guaranteed.
And our "authorities" will swallow and spew that.
|
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 28, 2020 17:10:06 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Jan 28, 2020 18:57:39 GMT -5
Wow... more people have died than have recovered but I expect that ratio to move towards recovery as they develop an anti body for this virus and people in general take more precaution... the question is how long will that take.
|
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 28, 2020 19:57:21 GMT -5
Wow... more people have died than have recovered but I expect that ratio to move towards recovery as they develop an anti body for this virus and people in general take more precaution... the question is how long will that take. That's a MASSIVE head scratcher. How come there are so few recoveries? It's now into week 4 or 5. Up to 6000 cases. Death toll is now 134. R0....between 3 and 4 If this is doubling every 3 days.....it's about 2 million in a month or so. Anybody want to guess how many by May? |
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jan 28, 2020 20:11:16 GMT -5
Wow... more people have died than have recovered but I expect that ratio to move towards recovery as they develop an anti body for this virus and people in general take more precaution... the question is how long will that take. The stats are only for people that go to the hospital and get tested ... So really, it isn't a 3-4% mortality rate. It is 3-4% of those that are known cases die. There are likely millions in China walking around with this not knowing they have it, and their immune systems are fighting it off easy peasy. Which brings that mortality rate down greatly. The vast majority of people dying are elderly, or immune compromised. Which isn't to shrug that off , just, as of now, I'm not worried As of this posting , 5974 confirmed cases in China. 132 deaths The death rate of confirmed cases is now 2.2% Suspected cases of this virus they estimate at over 9900 |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 28, 2020 23:06:54 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jan 29, 2020 8:58:04 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Skilly on Jan 29, 2020 9:46:23 GMT -5
The most troubling report so far to me is that Germany is claiming they may have a case of transmission by an asymptomatic patient. If true, that's not good... not good at all
|
|
|
|
Post by Willie Dog on Jan 29, 2020 10:46:39 GMT -5
The most troubling report so far to me is that Germany is claiming they may have a case of transmission by an asymptomatic patient. If true, that's not good... not good at all wow... Typhoid Mary syndrome... Very scary |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 29, 2020 15:03:58 GMT -5
I was reading in a major news source that they believe the virus can be transmitted through simple breathing. That was a hugh "huh" from me because as far as i know, it can only be in the air from a sneeze, in tiny water droplets. But from breathing? That can't be true because if it is....and up to 14 day incubation, that's horror movie stuff. Lots of horror level information but I'm not concerned or changed behaviour. But...... yesterday, we inventoried our food stock. |
|
|
|
Post by jkr on Jan 29, 2020 16:18:13 GMT -5
What I read in a recent article ( sorry, no source) is that this is not an airborne illness. There has to be contact with the infected person. When that infected couple flew into Toronto, the authorities only wanted to talk to people that were within 6 rows, not every passenger.
|
|
|
|
Post by Polarice on Jan 30, 2020 7:31:00 GMT -5
I was reading in a major news source that they believe the virus can be transmitted through simple breathing. That was a hugh "huh" from me because as far as i know, it can only be in the air from a sneeze, in tiny water droplets. But from breathing? That can't be true because if it is....and up to 14 day incubation, that's horror movie stuff. Lots of horror level information but I'm not concerned or changed behaviour. But...... yesterday, we inventoried our food stock.Not a bad plan....we always have a food stock of a couple weeks. I always plan to get that up to a month for a family of 4, but never take the time to rearrange my storage room to accommodate that much food.  We have friends in some of the major cities that aren't really worried, but they are likely to be staying home more than going out to the movies or diner etc. |
|
|
|
Post by frozone on Jan 30, 2020 8:52:54 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 30, 2020 14:53:33 GMT -5
I was reading in a major news source that they believe the virus can be transmitted through simple breathing. That was a hugh "huh" from me because as far as i know, it can only be in the air from a sneeze, in tiny water droplets. But from breathing? That can't be true because if it is....and up to 14 day incubation, that's horror movie stuff. Lots of horror level information but I'm not concerned or changed behaviour. But...... yesterday, we inventoried our food stock.Not a bad plan....we always have a food stock of a couple weeks. I always plan to get that up to a month for a family of 4, but never take the time to rearrange my storage room to accommodate that much food. We have friends in some of the major cities that aren't really worried, but they are likely to be staying home more than going out to the movies or diner etc. We are NOT preppies...buying bulk is the way i was brought up. We never buy anything that we know can go on sale, which is pretty much ALL foodstuffs. We save 25% of our food bill buy doing that. Two freezers, commercial vacuum sealer, industrial galvanized shelving, time stamps, etc, etc....and anywhere up to 3 year supply of some items. Meats for 1.5 years. Side benefit, meats is like butter when frozen a year. This potential crisis aside, it costs more upfront to buy bulk and on sale, but how many opportunites does one get to save a quarter of their living expenses? Regardless.... Bread, milk, others....we can't stock up so inevitably, we are going to get exposed. Maybe bring that down to once a month, but how about those who handled the food? Wiping down bread is out of the question. We'll see...meantime, stock up. Particularly pastas and rice. |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 30, 2020 14:59:16 GMT -5
Everybody who thinks they are exposed will voluntarily stay home. Of course, if they are sick, no chance that they will infect others. Nope. None. It's a well known fact that every Canadian has a hazmat suit and fully trained in it's use and handling contaminated enviroment. Don't worry....be happy. |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 30, 2020 22:32:34 GMT -5
I hate math.... IF it doesn't get stopped or slowed WAY down, anybody want to guess how many people it will infect in two months? Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by PTH on Jan 31, 2020 2:33:46 GMT -5
I hate math.... IF it doesn't get stopped or slowed WAY down, anybody want to guess how many people it will infect in two months? Oh, this is the coronavirus ? I thought it was 21st century temperatures. Gotta keep on pumpin that co2.... |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Jan 31, 2020 5:30:33 GMT -5
I hate math.... IF it doesn't get stopped or slowed WAY down, anybody want to guess how many people it will infect in two months? Oh, this is the coronavirus ? I thought it was 21st century temperatures. Gotta keep on pumpin that co2.... I'm sure that's important to you. |
|
|
|
Post by CentreHice on Feb 1, 2020 11:41:07 GMT -5
What I read in a recent article ( sorry, no source) is that this is not an airborne illness. There has to be contact with the infected person. When that infected couple flew into Toronto, the authorities only wanted to talk to people that were within 6 rows, not every passenger. I was wondering about that. What about the flight attendants that served these people, then went about the entire plane? What if some of the carriers/infected used the washrooms...perhaps sniffling, coughing their way down the aisle? Not to mention--the gate waiting areas; boarding, deplaning and customs lineups; luggage carousels; the tightly-packed shuttle services they used. 6 rows, my derriere...   |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Feb 1, 2020 12:48:22 GMT -5
WHO officialS said.....governments need to prepare for"domestic outbreak control" if the disease spreads in their countries. WHO officials said..."no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade." So how does if spread to other countries? Magic carpet? Star Trek transporters? From one side of their mouth, WHO declare a global medical emergency, from the other side they worry about trade? PURE POLITICAL FN GARBAGE FROM A UN ORGANIZATION. The usual garbage from uber politicized UN organizations. WHO purpose is medical issues but....."listens to concerns" from politicians and special interests. Worse of all, it gives cover to the Bearded One to do NOTHING in terms of shutting down any flights from China or screening those who may have been in China. Do nothing...then claim he was following WHO directives. I can just see the drama teacher go into his high voice, bleeping "uhh...uhh...we in Canada.....uh...uhhh...followed WHO recommendations." Meanwhile, other countries are taking precautions. CTV article goes into it towards the latter part of the article.... www.ctvnews.ca/world/who-says-prepare-for-local-outbreaks-china-slams-u-s-control-1.4793318 |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Feb 1, 2020 13:00:48 GMT -5
What I read in a recent article ( sorry, no source) is that this is not an airborne illness. There has to be contact with the infected person. When that infected couple flew into Toronto, the authorities only wanted to talk to people that were within 6 rows, not every passenger. I was wondering about that. What about the flight attendants that served these people, then went about the entire plane? What if some of the carriers/infected used the washrooms...perhaps sniffling, coughing their way down the aisle? Not to mention--the gate waiting areas; boarding, deplaning and customs lineups; luggage carousels; the tightly-packed shuttle services they used. 6 rows, my derriere... Apparently, screening at airports does not work. OK then, if we can't catch it, we stop the potential carriers. For a few weeks, ban flights from China and not allow non-residents who have been in China come to Canada. Ooops...that's racist, xenophobic, anti human right and downright meanny weanny thinking. globalnews.ca/news/6491615/coronavirus-airport-screening-effectiveness/ |
|
|
|
Post by Cranky on Feb 17, 2020 22:15:22 GMT -5
Here is a math problem....
CBC tonight...verbatim...facts from China. 80% of coronavirus are mild and "only" 2% death rate.
Sound worrying but not horrifying...
What we didn't hear was the obvious....20% are severe and require hospitalization, of which 10% of die.
Simple math that eludes the CBC.
Prime example the CBC "shaping" the news and intentionally downplaying an enormous issue. We simply do not have enough isolation wards to accommodate more then a few thousand. If we get hit, we will have to turn stadiums into field hospitals.....but even there, I'm pretty sure we don't have enough field equipment to accommodate tens of thousands. The main source would be our military.
(Dis, can you get the figurss of how many military field hospitals we can set up?)
Don't worry...be happy.
|
|
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/6F6VF25GCFF2HFJCOITRJSGNPE.jpg)
