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Post by UberCranky on Nov 18, 2020 8:28:19 GMT -5
This "looks" really good. Chances are, it is.....but....big pharma is also very creative in their numbers. There are billions and billions on the line and between the rush and the dollars, these numbers and testing needs to be scrutinized like no drug before it. With billions of people potentially getting this vaccine, the pandemic is going to look like a scratch if we get a vaccine that has unknown long term side effects. This vaccine better be hyper vetted....and the propaganda media has to get off it's rotted little wooden horse and not attack and belitle anyone who has a legitimate concern or question. I'm not an anti-vaxxer but I am hyper conservative when it come to drugs....or vaccines. And yes, I may have watched or read too much science fiction so the notion of self inflicted existential mistake is a tiny spark that won't extinguish. globalnews.ca/news/7469421/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety-final-results/
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 18, 2020 14:17:45 GMT -5
This vaccine will either be one of the greatest medical achievements of all time... or a thalidomide-level disaster.
Or, you know, it just won't work all that well.
Have I covered all the bases?
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 18, 2020 15:15:29 GMT -5
This vaccine will either be one of the greatest medical achievements of all time... or a thalidomide-level disaster. Or, you know, it just won't work all that well. Have I covered all the bases? I am a gentleman (and not much of a scholar) so I'm honoured if you go first!
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 18, 2020 15:32:56 GMT -5
This "looks" really good. Chances are, it is.....but....big pharma is also very creative in their numbers. There are billions and billions on the line and between the rush and the dollars, these numbers and testing needs to be scrutinized like no drug before it. With billions of people potentially getting this vaccine, the pandemic is going to look like a scratch if we get a vaccine that has unknown long term side effects. This vaccine better be hyper vetted....and the propaganda media has to get off it's rotted little wooden horse and not attack and belitle anyone who has a legitimate concern or question. I'm not an anti-vaxxer but I am hyper conservative when it come to drugs....or vaccines. And yes, I may have watched or read too much science fiction so the notion of self inflicted existential mistake is a tiny spark that won't extinguish. globalnews.ca/news/7469421/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety-final-results/After I wrote this then I thought.....where are the numbers for people who get the virus and have no symptoms and their immune system simply gets rid of it? That's suppose to be in the 40% range. So right off the bat, the numbers aren't 90% if 40% of those people have natural defenses. It's more like the additional 60% has a 10% failure rate in it. That's 1 out every 6 of the non natural immune can get the virus AFTER the vaccine. Yes, it's still 90% of the population, but the vaccine is NOT "90% effective". BTW....90% leaves 3.5 million Canadian susceptible to the virus. Big pharma numbers are NEVER, EVER to be taken at face value. (Please let me know if I missed something and big pharma is actually accounting for the naturally immune.)
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Post by BadCompany on Nov 18, 2020 16:26:05 GMT -5
This "looks" really good. Chances are, it is.....but....big pharma is also very creative in their numbers. There are billions and billions on the line and between the rush and the dollars, these numbers and testing needs to be scrutinized like no drug before it. With billions of people potentially getting this vaccine, the pandemic is going to look like a scratch if we get a vaccine that has unknown long term side effects. This vaccine better be hyper vetted....and the propaganda media has to get off it's rotted little wooden horse and not attack and belitle anyone who has a legitimate concern or question. I'm not an anti-vaxxer but I am hyper conservative when it come to drugs....or vaccines. And yes, I may have watched or read too much science fiction so the notion of self inflicted existential mistake is a tiny spark that won't extinguish. globalnews.ca/news/7469421/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety-final-results/After I wrote this then I thought.....where are the numbers for people who get the virus and have no symptoms and their immune system simply gets rid of it? That's suppose to be in the 40% range. So right off the bat, the numbers aren't 90% if 40% of those people have natural defenses. It's more like the additional 60% has a 10% failure rate in it. That's 1 out every 6 of the non natural immune can get the virus AFTER the vaccine. Yes, it's still 90% of the population, but the vaccine is NOT "90% effective". BTW....90% leaves 3.5 million Canadian susceptible to the virus. Big pharma numbers are NEVER, EVER to be taken at face value. (Please let me know if I missed something and big pharma is actually accounting for the naturally immune.) I would assume that the participants in the study were routinely tested, probably every week given the two week cycle it seems to operate on. So even if there were no symptoms in that 40% they would still show signs of the virus, or anti-bodies indicating that they had the virus at some point. If the study merely looked for people who were symptomatic then it's a garbage study and wouldn't get a pass in a high school lab experiment, never mind a billionaire dollar industry. Sure, you can argue that Pfizer has a vested interest in cutting corners... but every one of Pfizer's competitors would have a vested interest in disproving the vaccine if it's clinical trials were that horribly run. To say nothing of whistle-blowers, doctors, insurance agents, and every anti-vaxxer out there who is looking for even just the slightest reason to discredit the entire idea. A loophole this big would be too easy to drive a truck through, if you ask me.
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Post by PTH on Nov 19, 2020 3:16:23 GMT -5
This vaccine will either be one of the greatest medical achievements of all time... or a thalidomide-level disaster. Or, you know, it just won't work all that well. Have I covered all the bases? I fully expect a 2nd, more effective, cheaper and easier to handle vaccine within 5 years.
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Post by PTH on Nov 19, 2020 3:18:50 GMT -5
This "looks" really good. Chances are, it is.....but....big pharma is also very creative in their numbers. There are billions and billions on the line and between the rush and the dollars, these numbers and testing needs to be scrutinized like no drug before it. With billions of people potentially getting this vaccine, the pandemic is going to look like a scratch if we get a vaccine that has unknown long term side effects. This vaccine better be hyper vetted....and the propaganda media has to get off it's rotted little wooden horse and not attack and belitle anyone who has a legitimate concern or question. I'm not an anti-vaxxer but I am hyper conservative when it come to drugs....or vaccines. And yes, I may have watched or read too much science fiction so the notion of self inflicted existential mistake is a tiny spark that won't extinguish. globalnews.ca/news/7469421/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety-final-results/After I wrote this then I thought.....where are the numbers for people who get the virus and have no symptoms and their immune system simply gets rid of it? That's suppose to be in the 40% range. So right off the bat, the numbers aren't 90% if 40% of those people have natural defenses. It's more like the additional 60% has a 10% failure rate in it. That's 1 out every 6 of the non natural immune can get the virus AFTER the vaccine. Yes, it's still 90% of the population, but the vaccine is NOT "90% effective". BTW....90% leaves 3.5 million Canadian susceptible to the virus. Big pharma numbers are NEVER, EVER to be taken at face value. (Please let me know if I missed something and big pharma is actually accounting for the naturally immune.) Their 90%+ percent is directly related to the numbers they get out of their trials. I can't blame them for giving out the numbers in a raw form since absolutely any interpretation (even a logical one like yours) ends up being seen as spin to cover something up. So they just go for the stupid approach that's least open to criticism.
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 19, 2020 6:27:45 GMT -5
I would assume that the participants in the study were routinely tested, probably every week given the two week cycle it seems to operate on. So even if there were no symptoms in that 40% they would still show signs of the virus, or anti-bodies indicating that they had the virus at some point. If the study merely looked for people who were symptomatic then it's a garbage study and wouldn't get a pass in a high school lab experiment, never mind a billionaire dollar industry. Sure, you can argue that Pfizer has a vested interest in cutting corners... but every one of Pfizer's competitors would have a vested interest in disproving the vaccine if it's clinical trials were that horribly run. To say nothing of whistle-blowers, doctors, insurance agents, and every anti-vaxxer out there who is looking for even just the slightest reason to discredit the entire idea. A loophole this big would be too easy to drive a truck through, if you ask me. It's not about the testing, but about how many people are already immune to the disease that they claim their vaccine gives them immunity. If you are immune and get the vaccine, it hasn't done anything for you. If 4 out of every 10 are immune, then the effectiveness has to be measured against those who are susceptible. Why this is important is that we need to understand the numbers on how immunity is spread through age groups. Let's say that those over 65 have only a 10% natural immunity rate instead of the 40% for the general population. So now, the effectiveness of THAT group drops from 90% minus the difference between 40% and 10%, thus you get 60% effectiveness. How "exciting" is 60% for the most vulnerable group? Read below, the bold print. It is one of my concerns and the article addresses it. We MUST know all this and chance are that the smart people "in know" do know, but given the insane garbage about masks from our "leadership", I simply do not trust Doggy Ford or Santa Trudeau. I doubt even if someone explained it to them, they would come out and say...."sorry, but for you old people who are dying, you are going to still die but at a reduced rate! Yippee!". Hilariously, we need to get Trump to tout this vaccine as "his" solution and the propaganda media will dig up every bathroom cleaner expert to dig up any negative issues. I spend about an hour trying to find more info, but very little to go on. However, I did find something that runs down the same path that I'm questioning and concerned about. Here is something that at least asks a few questions.....more then the usual mouth moving parrots in the major propaganda media. .
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 19, 2020 6:55:19 GMT -5
Their 90%+ percent is directly related to the numbers they get out of their trials. I can't blame them for giving out the numbers in a raw form since absolutely any interpretation (even a logical one like yours) ends up being seen as spin to cover something up. So they just go for the stupid approach that's least open to criticism. It's a blind trial with 50% placebo. So everybody is thrown into the mix including those who have natural immunity. Besides, I can't see how they can test for naturally immunity unless they deliberately infect everybody and wean out the naturally immune. Which of course makes it impossible to get any trail. What they do have is information on those in the trial. That is where peer review and subsequent statistical analysis become absolutely critical.....if of course Pfizer is not cherry picking the numbers it publishes. As for dumbing down...... The problem is that dumbing down the information creates a bigger problem. Let's say that six months after the vaccine is distributed, nobody takes the disease seriously anymore, people relax their vigilance (as if it's that great now?) but we still have older people dying at a high rate. Possibly higher rate because now you can kiss grandma. And grandma dies a month later. Now, the vaccine starts to lose it's reputation and people start questioning it. Doggy Ford and Santa Trudeau will fall back on "we follow the advice of experts", but the general population starts to question it. Stupidity follows. The "truth" in this case may be more complex then a tweet....and corresponding attention span, but there are a significant percentage of the population, like you, me, and everybody on this board who WANT and DEMAND the facts.
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 19, 2020 7:23:11 GMT -5
BTW.....WAY BACK, my wife worked part time running trails for a doctor. Without getting too specific (privacy and small world), a doctor got a grant to run a study, then hired my wife after her normal shift to work on that study, which then got me involved to create a clear, logical analysis of the relatively few numbers. Pretty simple and straight forward so no hanky panky involved! lol
Most of the work was trying to get the doctor to explain what he wanted to show/highlight as important and me to explain how to look at them. It involved growth, or lack of it, so it was pretty simple.
PS...I never got paid although he did by a few dinners! Nice guy and his study was cancer related so I was proud and eager to help.
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Post by Tankdriver on Nov 19, 2020 11:42:29 GMT -5
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Post by Skilly on Nov 19, 2020 12:11:19 GMT -5
The FDA had indicated that they would approve anything with a 50% efficacy. So they would have liked 60%.
The issue with the 90% effective number, is that we do not know what it is effective against. Was it 90% effective at preventing hospitalizations? Was it 90% effective at ensure mild symptoms do not get worse? Was it 90% effective only on the healthiest groups in the population ... etc etc ...
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 20, 2020 0:00:28 GMT -5
The second wave appears worse then the first one. This means that the screams for the vaccine will become deafening....safety be damned.
Guys....step up your vigilance big time. If you don't have to meet people or travel, then don't. Wear your masks PROPERLY and wash your hands....and your food products. Anything entering your house is presumed contaminated and needs a few minutes of a soap wipedown.
Today was our last none essential shopping.
STAY SAFE
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Post by jkr on Nov 20, 2020 11:21:39 GMT -5
I was wondering about groceries. I've been washing them still. Did it this morning actually.
Christmas is looking like it's going to be a time of disappointment. My mother is in a retirement residence that's not allowing visitors. The conditions are difficult but they are working; only 2 cases since March. My son & his wife want to come for the holidays ( they live several hundred km away). But I am really torn about it.
I'm really tired of talking to my family via zoom or a phone call by the window.
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 20, 2020 13:08:16 GMT -5
I was wondering about groceries. I've been washing them still. Did it this morning actually. Christmas is looking like it's going to be a time of disappointment. My mother is in a retirement residence that's not allowing visitors. The conditions are difficult but they are working; only 2 cases since March. My son & his wife want to come for the holidays ( they live several hundred km away). But I am really torn about it. I'm really tired of talking to my family via zoom or a phone call by the window. Keep washing them and ignore the superheroes. The odds are small, but even small odds can have catastrophic results. A few minutes with a very soapy paper towel is hardly an inconvinience. We leave the soap on the surface. Our house has to be the sanctuary...but not much of a sanctuary if we don't make sure nothing gets in. I know how you feel about your mother and son. I have my dad and he's 102. Even if he knows what's going on, he still wanted me to go to the old country. I was so tempted so many times but if i get sick there, there is no one i trust my life. My wife does not speak the language so for her, to come to my rescue, it would be part help, part suicide mission. I love him with all my heart, i miss him....but....i'm literally weighing the risk to my life. Every day i give thanks to the Chinese government for all this....
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Post by Tankdriver on Nov 20, 2020 14:00:41 GMT -5
I was wondering about groceries. I've been washing them still. Did it this morning actually. Christmas is looking like it's going to be a time of disappointment. My mother is in a retirement residence that's not allowing visitors. The conditions are difficult but they are working; only 2 cases since March. My son & his wife want to come for the holidays ( they live several hundred km away). But I am really torn about it. I'm really tired of talking to my family via zoom or a phone call by the window. In Quebec, they are limiting it to 10 per family during X-mas. So at the moment we are good to. What I'll miss is the friends x-mas parties. Luckily for me, we all work in the same place so I get to see them a few times a month.
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Post by jkr on Nov 20, 2020 15:37:56 GMT -5
I was wondering about groceries. I've been washing them still. Did it this morning actually. Christmas is looking like it's going to be a time of disappointment. My mother is in a retirement residence that's not allowing visitors. The conditions are difficult but they are working; only 2 cases since March. My son & his wife want to come for the holidays ( they live several hundred km away). But I am really torn about it. I'm really tired of talking to my family via zoom or a phone call by the window. In Quebec, they are limiting it to 10 per family during X-mas. So at the moment we are good to. What I'll miss is the friends x-mas parties. Luckily for me, we all work in the same place so I get to see them a few times a month. Not sure what the Ontario rules are. Sometimes they just make recommendations rather than rules & depend on people to follow them.
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Post by jkr on Nov 20, 2020 15:43:23 GMT -5
Thought I could go to the grocery store this afternoon to pick up a few things missed on my online order. People were wearing masks but some seem to think it gives total immunity. Very little social distancing and my favorite - the entire family unit in on the shopping trip. Do you really need 4 people,to buy food, especially when 2 of them are kids running around the store?
I have rarely done this but I just abandoned my basket & walked out. It just felt like things are closing in.
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Post by Willie Dog on Nov 20, 2020 16:31:47 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion...
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Post by PTH on Nov 20, 2020 19:46:57 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion... And that's where having very strict rules ends up catching up to us - people want to find something, anything, to do, so they go in groups to where they can go. I remember in April how drugstores were jam-packed. But they were just about the only place people could go, so, they did. I'm not saying I approve, just that when the threat appears theoretical (as it does to many people), rules are harder to follow. A few news stories about triage leading to people going without care would take care of that. Because really, that's the issue - with a decent level of care it's true that the fatality rate is low and that 1/3 of all deaths were going to die within weeks anyways. The key words though, are "decent level of care". If hospitals can't keep up and triage sets in, things can get very ugly, very quickly. I wish more people were aware of how even ex-hockey players like George Laraque needed hospital care. A strong guy in his mid-40s...
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Post by Tankdriver on Nov 20, 2020 22:45:15 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion... Sorry I disagree with you here. As a single father, I am not going to leave my child unattended at home. There are lots of families like this that can't just drop a kid off somewhere when 6ou need something at a store.
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Post by GNick99 on Nov 20, 2020 23:34:50 GMT -5
In recent years seems like flu type viruses are getting worse. Had that H1N1, then SARS a few years ago. They were bad but never spread like Covid. Almost like they are getting smarter.
If another comes along in next few years worse than Covid, be devastating for human race.
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Post by jkr on Nov 21, 2020 7:51:33 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion... Sorry I disagree with you here. As a single father, I am not going to leave my child unattended at home. There are lots of families like this that can't just drop a kid off somewhere when 6ou need something at a store. I agree. Your situation is different from what I saw yesterday. It was a couple with 2 young children in a busy store. There was no reason for the four of them to be there. One adult can shop, the other can stay home with the children. Before the pandemic this was just a pain in the butt, now it's a social distancing issue.
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Post by Willie Dog on Nov 21, 2020 16:25:49 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion... Sorry I disagree with you here. As a single father, I am not going to leave my child unattended at home. There are lots of families like this that can't just drop a kid off somewhere when 6ou need something at a store. C'mon, there are exceptions of course.. but I went to costco today and saw lots of couples shopping together and people are not doing a good job of maintaining social distancing
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Post by PTH on Nov 21, 2020 18:43:19 GMT -5
Sorry I disagree with you here. As a single father, I am not going to leave my child unattended at home. There are lots of families like this that can't just drop a kid off somewhere when 6ou need something at a store. C'mon, there are exceptions of course.. but I went to costco today and saw lots of couples shopping together and people are not doing a good job of maintaining social distancing I think a lot of good habits picked up in the spring were completely lost over the summer, there's a kind of fatigue that's set in. It seems to be about the same everywhere, so it's not linked to a specific government or messaging strategy. Still, I think the expression "avoid like the plague" should fall out of use, since 20 or 30% of people just DGAF about an actual plague.
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Post by PTH on Nov 21, 2020 18:44:39 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion... Sorry I disagree with you here. As a single father, I am not going to leave my child unattended at home. There are lots of families like this that can't just drop a kid off somewhere when 6ou need something at a store. I think we can all accept single parents needing to keep their kids around - but it should be seen as a time to be calm and obedient, not recess. I see a lot of kids running like crazy in stores, and parents not caring.
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 21, 2020 19:28:19 GMT -5
Too many idiots are treating Costco like an outing. Not only the kids, but grandma and grandpa too. it seems to be universally and particularly in what appears the South Asian community. No surprise that Brampton has the highest rate....and just happens to be the highest concentration of South Asians.
It's close knit extended families, fine, great, fantastic, but this isn't normal times. Grandma and grandpa should be staying home with the kids while the parents go hunting and foraging shopping.
Right now, it's my wife that does food shopping and I'm the taxi driver. She has not and will not take public transportation for the foreseeable future. I try not to roll my eyes and pretend that I'm ok with her going for "female item" shopping...lol
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 21, 2020 19:32:12 GMT -5
People are getting lacksidasical and the numbers are showing that... there is no reason for more that 1 person to go shopping for a family, its not an excursion... Sorry I disagree with you here. As a single father, I am not going to leave my child unattended at home. There are lots of families like this that can't just drop a kid off somewhere when 6ou need something at a store. Absolutely agree with you. If you have no other option then you must do what you need to do. I think the issue here is when you see mommy, daddy and children treating COSTCO like an outing. There is no good reason why mom can't shop while dad looks after the kids at home. Or vice versa.
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Post by franko on Nov 21, 2020 19:56:28 GMT -5
There is no good reason why mom can't shop while dad looks after the kids at home.
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Post by UberCranky on Nov 28, 2020 9:46:44 GMT -5
There is something very fishy about the justifications of shutdowns.... 88% of the deaths are from people 65 and older. The other 12% are mostly from people who have underlying problems. So.....people with underlying problems and over 65 should stay home....and that should cover 95% of the deaths. However....entire society is getting shut down. Are we so politically correct to tell grandma and grandpa that they should stay the "heck" home? Or those with underlying problems? You simply can not base it solely on "infected" numbers because a lot of those showing positive are not a high risk of death. On top of that, they flash those numbers as though they are absolute indication of impending doom....although i suspect that the vast majority are from those who are in the low risk category. How about this....instead of screaming the latest shutdown, how about public airings on how to wear a mask properly, or heck, PROVIDE proper masks and educate. They spent half a trillion chasing the problem...and can't spend millions preventing it? If we look at the far east countries, they are obviously doing a much better job of educating the public in mask wearing and cleanliness then our so called "leadership". All ours seem to be really good at is panicking and shoveling money. In case you doubt the ability of societies to control the disease, their people taking responsibility and their leadership NOT hiding in a cottage and shoveling money....look at Taiwan. South Korea. Australia. Vietnam. Malaysia. China. Singapore. Hong Kong. Etc. Even Japan with a completely different level of population density, basically 125 million on a island the size of Newfoundland and Labrador. THEY have not shut down their industrialized society and demand and threaten people into house arrest to keep the virus under control. To be clear, yes, this is a deadly disease....but it is stupid leadership and stupid people which allows this disease to flourish..... www.google.ca/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2020/11/26/1_5205790.htmlwww.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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